联络人 作者 企业评级部 汤梦琳 010-66428877 mltang@ccxi.com.cn 李洁鹭 010-66428877 jlli@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 www.ccxi.com.cn 2026 年 2 月 目录 | 核心观点 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 行业财务表现 | 12 | | 结论 | 19 | | 附表 | 20 | 王梦莹 010-66428877 mywang01@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 行业展望 中国光伏制造行业 中国光伏制造行业展望，2026 年 2 月 展望 2026 年，国内光伏装机需求将出现小幅回落，海外出口增速也将 趋于下行，预计下游需求增速整体放缓；供给端，在法律政策与自律 协会的推动下，企业将继续减产控价，产业链价格或将出现不同程度 的回升，随着落后产能淘汰，行业集中度将进一步提升。不过短期内 行业供需失衡的格局仍难以得到根本性扭转，产业链价格仍将处于低 位。长期来看产业发展环境有望得到优化，但盈利修复仍需依赖减产 联盟共识、供给侧政策持续发力与需求端的带动，而持续亏损导致 ...

2026 年 2 月 目录 | 摘要 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 行业内企业信用分析 | 15 | | 结论 | 24 | | 附表 | 25 | 联络人 www.ccxi.com.cn 作者 企业评级部 盛 蕾 010-66428877 lsheng@ccxi.com.cn 王琳博 010-66428877 lbwang@ccxi.com.cn 马 骁 010-66428877 xma@ccxi.com.cn 赵曰鹏 010-66428877 ypzhao@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 王梦莹 010-66428877 mywang01@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 行业展望 中国电力生产行业 ◼ 2025年以来，我国经济在复杂的外部环境下实现稳健增长，全社会用电量同比保持中速 增长；预计2026年国内高技术及新质生产力的发展仍将对用电增量需求提供支撑，加之 经济提质增效政策的持续发力以及极端天气等因素，我国全社会用电需求或将继续保持 中速增长态势。 ◼ 2025年我国新能源装机维持高速增长，预计2026年电源结构清洁化发展趋 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 行业展望 2026 年 2 月 | 目录 | | | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 1 | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 行业财务表现 | 13 | | 结论 | 17 | | 附表 | 18 | 联络人 作者 mltang@ccxi.com.cn 刘紫萱 010-66428877 zxliu@ccxi.com.cn 郑皓月 010-66428877 hyzheng@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 王梦莹 010-66428877 中诚信国际行业展望 中诚信国际 中国汽车行业 企业评级部 汤梦琳 010-66428877 中国汽车行业展望，2026 年 2 月 以旧换新政策延续将持续释放政策红利，加之车企可依托技术与产业 链优势实现出口放量，预期 2026 年汽车行业产销量仍将高位运行，但 新能源购置税政策退坡、出口面临挑战等将令我国汽车行业面临较大 的增长压力；在新能源转型深化、市场秩序持续改善的双重支撑下， 预期车企整体财务基本面保持平稳，偿债压力处于可控区间。 中国汽车行业展望维持稳定，中诚信国际认为，未来 12~18 个月该 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a stable investment outlook for the chemical industry, with specific segments showing varying degrees of stability and weakening [3]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a turning point in the chemical industry in 2026, driven by the gradual implementation of "anti-involution" policies, although the extent of demand recovery in certain downstream sectors remains uncertain [2][4]. - The chemical industry is expected to shift its growth drivers towards technological innovation and industrial upgrades, while still needing to monitor the recovery of traditional downstream sectors like real estate [4]. - The report highlights that the peak investment period for the chemical industry has passed since 2025, with ongoing pressure from excess capacity in general materials and structural differences in demand [4][5]. - Financial performance among chemical companies has shown significant divergence since 2025, indicating potential risks for companies with weaker credit profiles [4][5]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The analysis focuses on the credit fundamentals of the chemical industry, assessing factors affecting supply-demand dynamics and raw material price fluctuations to infer impacts on corporate performance and financial health [5]. Industry Fundamentals - Since 2025, the domestic economy has maintained a stable growth trajectory, but external demand from developed countries has weakened, posing challenges for the chemical sector [6]. - The report notes that the recovery of traditional downstream demand, particularly in real estate, is crucial for the industry's growth, while new market opportunities will arise from technological advancements [6][9]. Industry Financial Performance - The report analyzes 556 listed companies in the chemical sector, revealing that financial performance varies significantly across different sub-sectors, with some facing greater challenges than others [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the tourism industry, with no significant changes expected in overall credit quality over the next 12 to 18 months [5][20]. Core Insights - Since 2025, the domestic tourism market has shown a positive development trend, with domestic tourism total visits and revenue maintaining double-digit growth. Cross-border travel has also seen a good recovery due to policy factors [6][9]. - The tourism industry is experiencing a shift from "quantity expansion" to "quality challenges," with a clear differentiation among companies. Those providing outstanding "value for money" experiences are expected to gain growth advantages, while those relying on traditional models will face greater pressure [5][21]. - The report highlights that the overall financial performance of sample tourism enterprises has slightly increased, but profitability and cash generation capabilities have weakened, indicating a divergence in revenue and profit across different sub-sectors [41][44]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The analysis focuses on the credit fundamentals of the tourism industry by examining the overall performance in 2025, the operational status of various sub-sectors, and the impact of relevant policies on profitability and debt repayment capabilities [7]. Industry Fundamentals - The tourism industry has maintained a positive development trend since 2025, with domestic tourism visits and spending both showing double-digit growth. The recovery of cross-border tourism is also noted, supported by government policies [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of providing high-quality experiences to meet the diverse demands of consumers, as the market transitions from quantity to quality [8][20]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, sample tourism enterprises experienced slight revenue growth, but profitability and cash generation capabilities weakened. The debt levels of these enterprises have slightly increased, maintaining a moderately high leverage level [41][44]. - The report indicates that the overall financial health of tourism enterprises is expected to remain stable, with no significant adverse changes anticipated in their ability to meet debt obligations [41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In 2025, under the policy guidance of promoting high - quality development of inclusive finance, the issuance volume of innovative multi - core enterprise combination model products and externally - enhanced products increased significantly. The service scope of supply - chain asset - backed securitization products expanded, the number of core enterprises participating in product issuance increased, and the covered industries broadened. However, due to the macro - economic growth pressure and the real - estate industry at the bottom - repair stage, the issuance scale of most major industries decreased year - on - year except for the infrastructure investment and financing industry. The issuance interest rate of supply - chain asset - backed securitization products continued to decline, the product term was mainly within 1 year, and some priority securities had follow - up issuance arrangements. The issuance scale of fully - enhanced products increased year - on - year, while that of non - enhanced and partially - enhanced products decreased. In the future, with the in - depth advancement of the social credit system and the integration of AI technology in the public credit field, innovative model products are expected to expand continuously [3][66] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Issuance Situation - In 2025, 254 supply - chain asset - backed securitization products were issued in the exchange market, with a total issuance scale of 127.191 billion yuan, a decrease of 8 in quantity and 5.97% in scale compared to the previous year. The issuance interest rate of 1 - year AAAsf - rated products decreased, and the issuance spreads relative to different benchmarks also changed [3][4] - In terms of issuance venues, 191 products were issued on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (with a scale of 104.428 billion yuan, accounting for 82.10%), and 63 on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (with a scale of 22.763 billion yuan, accounting for 17.90%). The top five managers accounted for 47.29% of the new management scale [6] - Most single - product issuance scales were within 10 billion yuan. The product term was mainly within 1 year, but the number and scale of products with a term over 1 year increased. AAAsf - rated securities accounted for 83.43% of the issuance scale [9][10][13] 2. Core Enterprise Analysis - In 2025, 215 single - core enterprise products involved 88 core enterprises, and 39 multi - core enterprise combination products. The issuance scale and quantity of multi - core enterprise combination products increased significantly [25] - The top five core enterprises in terms of issuance scale accounted for 37.79% of the total. The number of core enterprises increased year - on - year, including an increase of 6 in single - core enterprise products and about 5 times in multi - core enterprise products [26] - Among single - core enterprise products, 84 were state - owned enterprises and 4 were private enterprises. Core enterprises were distributed in 20 regions and 16 industries, with an expanded industry coverage. The core enterprise credit rating was mainly AAA and AA+ [30][32][36] 3. Original Equity Holder Situation - In 2025, 38 original equity holders or their agents were involved. The top five original equity holders accounted for 60.56% of the issuance scale. 25 had no relationship with core enterprises, 9 had a relationship, and 4 served both [44][49] 4. Product Structure Design - In terms of sub - securities, most products had a sub - scale ratio between 0% (excluding) and 1% (including). The issuance scale of fully - enhanced products increased, while that of non - enhanced and partially - enhanced products decreased. The proportion of non - enhanced priority securities in different product types varied [51][53][55] - 186 products had core enterprises or their affiliated companies as the credit - enhancement subject, and 57 had external entities, with a significant increase in the scale of the latter [57] 5. Filing, Secondary - Market Trading, and Maturity - In 2025, 259 supply - chain asset - backed special plans were filed, with a scale of 134.88 billion yuan, an increase of 7.39% year - on - year [59] - In the secondary market, 5,910 transactions were made, with a scale of 104.54 billion yuan, an increase of 87.40% year - on - year [61] - In 2026, 387 supply - chain asset - backed securities are expected to mature, with a scale of 94.077 billion yuan. The maturity situation varies by original equity holder and core enterprise [62]

行业展望 2026 年 2 月 目录 | 要点 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面分析 | 2 | | 行业财务表现 | 9 | | 结论 | 11 | 联络人 | 作者 | | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿雨 | 027-87339288 | | | hyliu.eva@ccxi.com.cn | | 毛楚杰 | 027-87339288 | | | chjmao@ccxi.com.cn | 其他联络人 | 贺文俊 | | 027-87339288 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | wjhe@ccxi.com.cn | | 余 | 璐 | 027-87339288 | | | | lyu@ccxi.com.cn | www.ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际行业展望 中诚信国际 中国担保行业 中国担保行业，2026 年 2 月 中诚信国际预计 2026 年融资担保行业运行保持增长态势，行业内 业务结构调整和高质量转型进程仍将持续，担保债券类型及主体 性质趋于多元，但未来较长一段时间内仍将以国央企客户为主， 短期内代偿风险可控；随着政 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the Chinese toll road industry, reflecting the expectation that the overall credit quality of the industry will not undergo significant changes in the next 12 to 18 months [3][32]. Core Insights - The toll road industry in 2025 is characterized by stable overall performance, with passenger transport experiencing a "total decline, slight increase in turnover" due to competition from other transportation modes, while freight transport continues to grow under macroeconomic support [4][31]. - The fixed asset investment scale in the toll road sector has been on a downward trend, with future construction tasks primarily concentrated in the western regions, which may face greater investment pressures [4][12]. - The overall profitability of toll road operators has shown slight recovery, with debt repayment capabilities slightly declining but remaining at a good level, and financial leverage levels appearing relatively stable [4][31]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The report analyzes the overall fundamentals of the toll road industry from the perspectives of demand changes, investment pressures, and industry policies, while summarizing the current credit situation and future credit trends for the next 12 to 18 months [5]. Industry Fundamentals - The toll road industry in 2025 shows stable performance, with passenger transport volume slightly declining by 2.4% to 11.492 billion passengers, while freight transport volume increased by 3.4% to 43.288 billion tons [6][7]. - The construction of a smart transportation system is expected to bring new opportunities and challenges to the toll road industry [6][11]. - The proportion of road transport turnover in the total transport industry is expected to decline slightly, with road passenger turnover accounting for 14.35% and freight turnover for 29.81% [8]. Financial Performance - The net profit of toll road operators has shown slight growth due to diversified business development and a decrease in financial expenses, with a net profit increase of 4.29% in 2025 [22][30]. - The overall financial performance remains stable, with the total debt of sample enterprises maintaining a low growth rate, and the financial leverage continuing to decline [24][30]. - The cash flow from operating activities for sample enterprises has increased, with net cash flow from operations growing by 10.33% and 8.62% in 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025, respectively [26][30]. Conclusion - The toll road industry is expected to maintain stable performance, with the overall credit level remaining stable due to manageable capital expenditure pressures and ongoing consolidation within the industry [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the coal industry, indicating that the overall credit quality of the industry is not expected to change significantly in the next 12 to 18 months [6]. Core Insights - Coal demand growth has significantly slowed, but it remains a cornerstone for energy security. The domestic coal production is expected to continue rising due to the release of previously constructed capacities, while coal imports are projected to decline [6][7]. - The coal price is anticipated to exhibit a "high first, low later, and then rebound" V-shaped trend throughout the year, with a stable price center expected [6][28]. - The financial performance of coal enterprises is under pressure due to rising debt levels, but their operational cash flow and refinancing capabilities remain relatively strong [6][35]. Summary by Sections Key Focus Areas - Since 2025, national coal consumption has been weak, primarily supported by the power sector. However, the continuous push for clean energy has negatively impacted thermal power demand, leading to a decline in both thermal power generation and coal consumption [7][9]. - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a downturn, further weakening coal demand in the building materials industry [7][15]. - The chemical industry has seen a slight increase in coal demand due to new coal chemical projects, but the overall consumption scale remains relatively small [7][16]. Industry Fundamentals - The coal consumption growth rate has continued to slow, with total coal consumption in China for January to November 2025 at 4.69 billion tons, unchanged from the previous year [9]. - The power sector remains the largest consumer of coal, accounting for over 50% of total coal consumption. However, traditional thermal power is facing significant pressure from clean energy sources [11][12]. - The steel industry, as the second-largest consumer of coal, has also seen a decline in coal consumption due to reduced demand from downstream sectors [14]. Financial Performance - The profitability of coal enterprises is closely tied to coal prices, which have been declining. In the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit of sample enterprises dropped by 25.65% year-on-year to 135.93 billion yuan [36]. - The average operating profit margin for sample enterprises decreased by 3.22 percentage points to 19.09% due to falling coal prices [36]. - The financial health of coal enterprises is under pressure, but the overall debt structure has improved, and the refinancing environment remains favorable [6][35]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The coal supply is expected to grow at a slower pace, with domestic production and imports both facing constraints. The overall supply-demand balance is under structural pressure, which will support the price center in the medium to long term [27][33]. - The introduction of a floating pricing mechanism for long-term contracts is expected to enhance contract compliance and stabilize market price fluctuations [28]. Price Trends - The coal price has shown a V-shaped trend, with a significant drop followed by a rebound. The average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5000) fell by 12 yuan/ton by the end of December compared to the beginning of the year [29][30]. - The pricing mechanism for coking coal varies by region, with long-term contracts generally exhibiting less volatility compared to market pricing [31]. Inventory Levels - Coal inventories remain high due to a continuous supply surplus, with total coal inventories exceeding 350 million tons [25][26]. - The high inventory levels are expected to exert downward pressure on thermal coal prices in the short term [25].

www.ccxi.com.cn 行业展望 2026 年 2 月 目录 中诚信国际 中国水务行业 中国水务行业展望，2026 年 2 月 2026 年，水务行业投资重心预计将转向重大水利工程与城乡供 排水管网更新改造两大领域，投资项目具备政策性资金保障，企 业直接资本开支压力相对可控；行业盈利能力有望随水价调整范 围扩大而提升，回款情况短期内或难实质性改善，关联企业资金 占用问题仍将存在，行业债务规模继续面临上升压力；得益于水 务企业外部融资渠道保持通畅，行业整体偿债能力维持稳定。 中国水务行业的展望维持稳定，中诚信国际认为未来 12~18 个月该行 业总体信用质量不会发生重大变化。 摘要 | 摘要 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 行业内企业信用分析 | 6 | | 结论 | 11 | | 附表 | 12 | 联络人 | 作者 | | --- | | 柯 维 027-87339288 | | wke@ccxi.com.cn | | 黄靖雯 027-87339288 | | jwhuang.huang@ccxi.com.cn | 其他联络人 | 贺 ...