Group 1: CPI and PPI Overview - In January 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.5% year-on-year, up from 0.1% in the previous month, and rose by 0.7% month-on-month, compared to 0.0% previously[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained at -2.3% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month, and the month-on-month decline slightly widened to -0.2% from -0.1%[2] Group 2: Seasonal and Policy Influences - The January CPI increase was weaker than seasonal expectations, which typically see an average month-on-month rise of 1.1% during the Spring Festival months[3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, has shown a continuous increase for four months, indicating some effectiveness of policies implemented since September 2024[3] Group 3: Sector Contributions - Key contributors to the CPI increase included food and beverage, transportation, education, culture, and entertainment, with respective year-on-year growth rates rising by 0.6%, 1.6%, 0.8%, and 0.5%[3] - Service consumption prices, particularly in tourism and household services, outperformed seasonal trends, with increases of 11.6%, 5.7%, and 1.5% month-on-month for various service categories[3] Group 4: Commodity Price Dynamics - Food prices rose by 0.4% year-on-year but were weaker than seasonal performance, with pork prices showing a modest recovery[6] - International crude oil prices increased, contributing approximately 0.1 percentage points to the CPI rise, with domestic gold and gasoline prices up by 3.0% and 2.5% respectively[6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The continuation of price recovery is contingent on effective policy measures and fiscal spending, particularly in infrastructure and industrial demand[11] - The PPI is expected to remain under pressure unless stricter industry regulations are introduced to support supply-side improvements[11]

专题研究 2025 年 3 月 5 日 热点点评 2025 年地方债务与财政领域的走势与关注 ——全国两会精神学习系列之二 2025 年 3 月 5 日，第十四届全国人民代表大会第三次会议在北 京开幕，国务院总理李强作 2024 年《政府工作报告》。《政府工作 报告》将今年 GDP 增速预期目标设定为 5%左右，并强调实施更加 积极有为的宏观政策，坚持稳中求进、以进促稳，守正创新、先立 后破，系统集成、协同配合，充实完善政策工具箱，根据形势变化 动态调整政策，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性。其中， 实施更加积极的财政政策，今年预算赤字率首次上升至 4%左右， 赤字规模 5.66 万亿、较去年增加 1.6 万亿，地方新增专项债安排 4.4 万亿元、较去年增加 0.5 万亿，同时今年开始发行 1.8 万亿特别国债。 此外，《政府工作报告》还提出动态调整债务高风险地区名单，支 持打开新的投资空间，一般公共预算支出规模比上年增加 1.2 万亿， 大力提振消费、提高投资效益，深化财税金融体制改革等。结合 《政府工作报告》和《关于 2024年中央和地方预算执行情况与 2025 年中央和地方预算草案的报告》，我们认为 ...

100-1 2025 年 3 月 热点点评 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 张 堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 燕 翔 xyan@ccxi.com.cn 张瀚文 hwzhang@ccxi.com.cn 【从地方两会看2025 年中国经济】，地方两会 系列二，2025 年 2 月 18 日 【筑底企稳、稳中求进的中国经济】，2024 年 宏观经济及大类资产配置分析与2025 年展望， 2025 年 1 月 26 日 【中央经济工作会议的六大看点】，中央经济 工作会议点评，2024 年 12 月 10 日 【7 月政治局会议的五大关注点】——2024 年 7 月政治局会议点评，2024 年 7 月 31 日 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731 gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 12 日 2025 年政府工作报告的八大关注点 ——全国两会精神学习系列之一 2025 年 3 月 5 日上午 9 时，十四届全国人大三次会议在人民大会 堂开幕，国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the banking industry, indicating that the overall credit quality will not undergo significant changes in the next 12 to 18 months [4]. Core Viewpoints - Regulatory policies are guiding the banking sector to enhance support for key areas and weak links, while optimizing management systems to promote high-quality financial development [5][6]. - The banking sector is experiencing a slowdown in asset growth, with a focus on credit allocation towards emerging industries and key sectors, while maintaining a stable liability structure [5][13]. - Despite a slight increase in net profit due to reduced provisioning, the narrowing interest margin continues to pose challenges for future profitability growth [5][40]. - Asset quality indicators are improving due to multiple policies, but pressures remain from the slow recovery of the real economy and potential credit risks [5][47]. - Liquidity remains ample in the market, although there is a trend of differentiation among various banking institutions [5][56]. Industry Policy - The regulatory framework emphasizes three main tasks: promoting development, strengthening regulation, and preventing risks, with a focus on supporting key sectors and resolving risks in real estate and local debts [6][7]. - Policies have been introduced to guide financial institutions in supporting small and micro enterprises, advanced manufacturing, and other key areas [6][7]. - The regulatory environment has been adjusted to enhance the capital replenishment mechanisms for banks, particularly for state-owned banks [6][7]. Business Operations - As of the end of 2023, the total assets and liabilities of domestic banking institutions reached 409.70 trillion yuan and 375.80 trillion yuan, respectively, reflecting a growth of 10.11% and 10.22% year-on-year [13]. - By September 2024, total assets and liabilities grew to 431.55 trillion yuan and 395.95 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.33% and 5.36% respectively [13]. - The asset structure is being optimized, with a rising proportion of loans in total assets, indicating a focus on liquidity and profitability [17]. Financial Condition Analysis - In 2023, net profit for commercial banks was 2.38 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.23%, while the capital return rate and asset return rate were 8.93% and 0.70% respectively [45]. - By September 2024, net profit reached 1.87 trillion yuan, showing a modest growth of 0.48% year-on-year [45]. - The non-performing loan balance increased to 3.38 trillion yuan by September 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.72% [47].

| 目录 | | --- | www.ccxi.com.cn 编号：2025-AM02 2025 年 2 月 27 日 | 要点 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 正文 | 2 | | 声明 | 8 | jqxu@ccxi.com.cn 负责人 结构融资部 董事总经理 王 立 010-66428877-523 lwang03@ccxi.com.cn 结构融资部 评级总监 付春香 021-60330927 cxfu@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 定期报告 资产证券化 联络人 作者 结构融资部 许嘉琦 021-60330988 发行规模同比明显增加，发行成本持续下行，二级市 场交易活跃度有所下滑 ——企业资产支持证券产品报告（2025 年 1 月） 要点 ◼ 发行情况：2025 年 1 月共发行企业资产支持证券 125 单，合计发行规模 1,053.27 亿 元。与上月相比，发行数量减少 72 单，发行规模下降 39.41%；与上年同期相比，发 行数量增加 44 单，发行规模上升 72.67%。发行产品涉及的基础资产类型主要为企 业融资租赁、供应链、个人消费金融、CMBS 和汽车融资租赁等。融资成 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 2025 年 2 月 目录 | 摘要 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 1 绍兴市债务情况 | 2 | | 2 绍兴市高债务率形成的原因 | 3 | | 3 绍兴市债务滚续压力分析 | 7 | | 结论 | 8 | 联络人 作者 政府公共评级部 夏 敏 mxia@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 魏 芸 ywei@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 特别评论 基础设施投融资⾏业 绍兴债务之谜：区域债务与经济发展的博弈 摘要 1 行业研究 n 近年来，绍兴市政府及城投有息债务均大幅增长，2018~2023 年复合增长率 分别为 16.02%和 20.71%，且城投有息债务占全省的比重高于地方政府债券 的占比。从全省各地市来看，绍兴市的区域债务规模在全省 11 个地市中排 名第三，但广义债务率全省最高，且自 2021 年以来保持快速增长趋势。下属 区县中，诸暨市的广义债务率排名首位，越城区位居末位。 n 绍兴市近年来大力推进城市化进程以及大规模的基础设施建设，特别是在交 通基建、生态环保、园区产业升级等方面投入了大量的资金，是导致绍兴市 地方债务规模扩大的主要原因之一； ...

Monetary Policy Signals - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery, with potential for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates[2] - The report emphasizes the need for macro policy coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments[7] Economic Challenges - Domestic demand remains insufficient, and risks are still prevalent, with the manufacturing PMI showing a significant drop in January compared to previous years[3] - The external environment has worsened, with increased uncertainty impacting economic stability, as highlighted by the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decisions[3] Interest Rate and Inflation Trends - The average interest rate for newly issued loans was approximately 3.3% in December, down about 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a trend of declining financing costs[9] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have both shown a downward trend, keeping inflation pressures within controllable limits[4] Policy Tools and Framework - The PBOC is enhancing its monetary policy toolbox, including the introduction of new instruments to support capital market development and economic recovery[6] - The report indicates a focus on improving the efficiency of financial resource allocation, particularly in emerging sectors like new infrastructure and green development[11] Cost Reduction Measures - The report stresses the importance of reducing financing costs for enterprises and households, with ongoing reforms in deposit interest rates to facilitate this[9] - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.53%, indicating significant pressure on banks' profitability due to the lag in adjusting deposit rates[9]

Revenue Performance - General public budget revenue in 2024 was 21,970.2 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, but below the initial target of 3.3%, resulting in a shortfall of 424.8 billion CNY[5] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 12.2% year-on-year, significantly lower than the initial target of 0.1%, with a shortfall of 871.2 billion CNY[6] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in 2024 was 28,461.2 billion CNY, growing by 3.6% year-on-year but still below the target of 4.0%, resulting in a shortfall of 87.8 billion CNY[10] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 0.2% year-on-year, far below the initial target of 18.6%, with a shortfall of 187 billion CNY[11] Fiscal Deficits - The overall fiscal revenue fell short of the initial budget by approximately 1.3 trillion CNY, with a record high deficit of 10.4 trillion CNY between actual revenue and expenditure[14] - Debt service expenditure reached a historical high of 1,287.7 billion CNY, accounting for 4.5% of total fiscal expenditure, indicating significant pressure on fiscal sustainability[26] Economic Challenges - Tax revenue declined by 3.4% year-on-year, with major tax categories like domestic VAT and corporate income tax decreasing by 3.8% and 0.5%, respectively[17] - Non-tax revenue surged by 25.4%, reaching a historical high of 20.36% of total revenue, raising concerns about its sustainability and impact on the business environment[20] 2025 Outlook - Fiscal revenue is expected to remain under pressure due to weak domestic demand and external uncertainties, with a projected budget deficit exceeding 14 trillion CNY[29] - Many provinces have lowered their fiscal revenue growth targets for 2025, with an average expected growth of 2.9% for general public budgets, reflecting economic pressures[30]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the AMC industry, particularly in the context of participating in the bankruptcy reorganization of listed companies, suggesting a favorable investment environment [2][4]. Core Insights - The AMC sector is actively engaging in the bankruptcy reorganization of listed companies, leveraging its financial investment capabilities to achieve returns while facing challenges such as high equity subscription prices and stock price volatility [2][4]. - The number of bankruptcy reorganization cases for listed companies has significantly increased from 2019 to 2024, prompting AMCs to accelerate their involvement in this area [4][5]. - The "New National Nine Articles" policy has created both opportunities and challenges for AMCs, enhancing information transparency while demanding higher risk control and asset management capabilities [6][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Overview - The introduction of policies like the "New National Nine Articles" has reduced information asymmetry, improving AMC efficiency in asset disposal while increasing the need for precise risk assessment [6][7]. 2. Business Models - AMCs primarily engage in bankruptcy reorganization through various models, including debt acquisition, beneficial debt investment, and capital reserve conversion, with the latter becoming the mainstream investment approach [8][9][11][13]. - The capital reserve conversion model allows AMCs to subscribe to new shares without diluting existing shareholders' equity, facilitating debt repayment and operational funding [13][14]. 3. Case Studies - The report highlights several case studies where AMCs participated as financial investors in bankruptcy reorganizations, such as ST Zhengbang and ST Yongtai, showcasing the effectiveness of the capital reserve conversion model [20][22][23][25]. - In the case of ST Zhengbang, the AMC played a crucial role in the restructuring process, utilizing capital reserve conversion to facilitate debt repayment and operational support [20]. - The financial performance of AMCs, particularly in terms of stock price appreciation post-reorganization, indicates a positive trend, with many investors experiencing significant unrealized gains [27][28][32]. 4. Financial Performance - The report notes that AMCs, particularly those with high equity asset ratios, face volatility in investment returns due to stock price fluctuations, impacting overall profitability [32][38]. - The financial performance of AMCs has shown significant fluctuations over the years, with a notable recovery in 2023 after a challenging 2022, driven by improved stock market conditions [38][39].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a continuous contraction in the insurance asset management industry for innovative products in 2024, with a focus on green finance and asset-backed securities (ABS) for potential growth in 2025 [4][6][44] Core Insights - The registration scale of innovative products in the insurance asset management industry continues to shrink, with a notable decline in all product types except for asset-backed plans, which have seen an increase [6][7][44] - The debt investment plans remain the primary product type, accounting for over 75% of the total, although their registration numbers have decreased [7][10] - The report highlights a shift in investment focus towards the eastern regions of China, particularly Zhejiang, with transportation being the leading sector for investment [9][12][15] - The government is encouraging the regular issuance of infrastructure REITs, which presents an opportunity for insurance asset management to invest in this sector to align with their risk-return requirements [6][44] Summary by Sections Product Operation Analysis - In 2024, the number and scale of innovative products in the insurance asset management industry continue to decline, with a total of 498 products registered, a decrease of 77 from the previous year, and a total scale of 11,072.23 billion yuan, down 15.80% year-on-year [7][10] - Debt investment plans account for 75.30% of the total number of products, while asset-backed plans have increased to 20.48% [7][10] - The report notes a significant concentration of investment in the eastern region, with Zhejiang leading at 19.42% of the total investment [12][15] Institutional Operation Analysis - In 2024, Allianz Asset Management leads in the number of registered debt investment plans, while Huatai Asset Management maintains the largest scale [30][32] - The report indicates that the top institutions dominate the market, with a few firms capturing a significant share of the total registration scale [30][32] Industry Policy Review - The government plans to replace 10 trillion yuan of local government hidden debt, which is expected to alleviate repayment pressures and stimulate investment in infrastructure projects [36][39] - The report emphasizes the importance of adhering to new regulations regarding public-private partnerships (PPP) and the need for careful project evaluation to avoid increasing hidden debts [36][38] Observations and Outlook - The insurance asset management industry is expected to face continued pressure in 2024, but innovative products will remain a crucial financing tool [42][44] - The report anticipates that while the overall trend may continue to contract, there will be opportunities in green finance and infrastructure investments, particularly in the context of ongoing government support for REITs [42][44]