1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the escalating tariff war between China and the US, macro - policies need to increase counter - cyclical adjustment. Fiscal measures, especially central government initiatives, are crucial for expanding domestic demand. Different scenarios of tariff games require corresponding incremental fiscal funds, with short - term goals focusing on stabilizing economic growth and social expectations, and long - term goals on building a unified domestic market and enhancing international discourse power. A series of fiscal tools and measures should be used to address challenges and improve the efficiency of fiscal funds [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tariff Game Scenarios and Fiscal Space - **Impact of Tariff War**: The continuous escalation of the tariff war since April has affected China's exports and economic recovery, and increased financial market uncertainty. China's economy showed a bottom - stabilizing trend in Q1 2025 with a 5.4% GDP year - on - year growth, but still faced issues like insufficient demand and weak expectations [9]. - **Fiscal Space in Different Scenarios**: In the optimistic scenario, the US cancels all reciprocal tariffs, with a 0.3 - percentage - point GDP drag, and no incremental fiscal funds may be needed. In the neutral scenario, with a 34% reciprocal tariff and some export support from "re - export", the GDP growth may be dragged by 0.9 percentage points, requiring 0.6 - 1.2 trillion yuan of incremental fiscal funds. In the pessimistic scenario, a high - tariff above 145% may cause China's exports to the US to stagnate, dragging the GDP growth by over 2 percentage points and requiring over 1.7 trillion yuan of incremental fiscal funds [12]. 3.2 Fiscal Response Strategies under Tariff Games - **Short - term Goals**: Focus on stabilizing economic growth and social expectations, promoting domestic demand, stabilizing employment, and benefiting people's livelihoods. Provide support to export - oriented regions, industries, and enterprises, and introduce "emergency" measures. Combine policy tools, speed up the issuance and use of government bonds, and introduce new tools for consumption promotion and foreign trade stabilization [4][17]. - **Long - term Goals**: Build a unified domestic market, stimulate market vitality, improve total factor productivity through structural adjustment and institutional reform, and enhance international discourse power. Foster a complete domestic demand system, cultivate new productive forces, and promote fiscal system reform [4][18]. 3.3 Current Fiscal Tools for Tariff Games - **Treasury Bonds**: Given the large breakthrough in the budget deficit rate, it is recommended to issue special treasury bonds in late October. The funds can be used for "two new" policies, support export - oriented enterprises, and supplement the capital of state - owned banks if necessary [6][21]. - **Local Bonds**: Increase the issuance of land reserve special bonds, accelerate the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing, and consider establishing real - estate acquisition funds. If necessary, increase the special bond quota and use it to supplement the capital of small and medium - sized banks [26][27]. - **Quasi - fiscal Tools**: Restart policy - based financial tools and increase the issuance of central enterprise "stable - growth and investment - expansion special bonds" to support key projects and promote economic transformation and upgrading [28]. - **Tax and Social Security Policies**: Introduce targeted tax incentives and temporary social security fee exemptions to strengthen people's livelihood protection [32]. - **Stabilizing Foreign Trade and Supporting Science and Technology**: Establish a foreign - trade stabilization fund and continue to use government investment funds to support science and technology innovation [33]. - **Capital Market Support**: Promote the entry of long - term and patient capital such as insurance and social security funds into the market through the "commanding - rod" role of the Ministry of Finance's performance evaluation [34]. 3.4 Improving the Efficiency of Fiscal Funds under Long - term Great - Power Games - **Utilize Existing Tools**: Speed up the expenditure of government bonds. In Q1 2025, the government bond issuance scale was 6.14 trillion yuan, and the issuance scale may increase in Q2 and Q3. Fiscal expenditure should be accelerated to use existing tools effectively [38]. - **Optimize Expenditure Structure**: Compress non - urgent expenditures, focus on key areas, and shift from "investment in things" to "investment in people". Assist in risk resolution in key areas such as the real - estate market and local debts [43][45][46]. - **Strengthen Fund Supervision**: Establish a full - chain and full - cycle management system, including improving the government's balance sheet, project reserve, evaluation, and direct - access mechanisms [46]. - **Improve Local Bond Management**: Implement negative - list management and "self - review and self - issuance" mechanisms for local bonds, especially special bonds [49]. - **Enhance Policy Coordination**: Strengthen expectation management and coordinate fiscal policies with monetary and industrial policies [50]. - **Deepen Fiscal System Reform**: Rationalize the relationship between the central and local governments, study new tax systems, promote provincial - level and below fiscal system reform, and deepen zero - based budget reform [53].

Group 1: Trade War Overview - The U.S. has implemented an average tariff of approximately 135% on Chinese imports, with some products facing tariffs as high as 245%[5][12]. - The trade conflict has escalated since 2025, with the U.S. increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, including a 34% tariff that was later raised to 125%[5][6]. - China's response has included reciprocal tariffs and negotiations with other countries to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs[6][7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The optimistic scenario predicts a 2.5% reduction in exports, while the neutral and pessimistic scenarios forecast reductions of 7.0% and 14.7%, respectively[15][20]. - The net export impact on GDP growth is estimated to be a drag of 0.3% in the optimistic case, 0.9% in the neutral case, and around 2% in the pessimistic case[15][20]. - Employment in export-related sectors, particularly labor-intensive industries, is expected to be significantly affected, with 1.8 million jobs tied to imports and exports[16][17]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Effects - The textile and light industry sectors are particularly vulnerable, with high dependency on the U.S. market and low profit margins[19][23]. - The chemical industry may face indirect impacts due to its reliance on downstream sectors like textiles and home appliances, despite direct tariff effects being limited[26]. - The automotive sector is undergoing a strategic restructuring, with parts suppliers facing significant pressure from tariff-induced order losses and profit margin compression[4][25]. Group 4: Policy Responses - The Chinese government is expected to implement monetary and fiscal policies to counteract the economic slowdown caused by tariffs, including potential interest rate cuts and increased public spending[15][18]. - Ongoing negotiations and tariff exemptions for certain high-dependency products, such as electronics, indicate a potential for easing tensions in specific sectors[7][10].

专题研究 2025 年 4 月 赵 耿 010-66428731； 宏观专题 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 院 长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 研 究 员 张 堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 研 究 员 张瀚文 hwzhang@ccxi.com.cn 核心 CPI 再度回正，关注关税冲击对物价 的影响，2025.4 特朗普关税风暴来袭，全球影响几何？， 2025.4 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 贸易战的历史视角、影响和应对——中美关税博弈 专题系列（二） ◼ 中美贸易战与过去有何异同？ ◼ 关于后续中美关税博弈进展的推演和测算 www.ccxi.com.cn 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 解码中美关税战对中国经济和重点行业的 冲击与重塑——中美关税博弈专题系列 （一），2025,04 关税战升级下出口韧性凸显，做好自己的 事至关重要，2025.4 全面降准或率先落地，关税博弈下收益率 高波动或延续，2025. ...

专题研究 2025 年一季报 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业研究 一季度地方债发行全景透视与后续展望 报告要点 后续发行展望 一季度地方债市场运行的四大特征 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 | 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn | | --- | | 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn | | 闫彦明 ymyan01@ccxi.com.cn | 财政支出发力明显，关税博弈下仍有增量 空间——2025 年一季度财政数据点评， 2025-04-26 全面降准或率先落地，关税博弈下收益率 高波动或延续——一季度货币政策与利率 债回顾与下阶段展望，2025-04-22 一季度经济表现超预期，为全年打下良好 基础——2025 年一季度经济数据点评， 2025-04-16 开年财政表现：支出前置注重投资于人， 收入承压仍待政策发力——2025 年 1-2 月财 政数据点评，2025-03-28 2025年地方债务与财政领域的走势与关注 ——全国两会精神学习系列之二，2025-03- 06 2025 年政府工作报告的八大关注点——全 国两会精神学习系列之一，202 ...

4 月 30 日，十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议表决通过了《中 华人民共和国民营经济促进法》（以下简称《民营经济促进法》）。 《民营经济促进法》包括总则、公平竞争、投资融资促进、科技创 新、规范经营、服务保障、权益保护、法律责任、附则共九个章节， 自 2025 年 5 月 20 日起施行。《民营经济促进法》草案于 2024 年 10 月首次发布，经人大会议三次审议后正式落地，这也是我国第一部 专门关于民营经济发展的基础性法律，首次明确民营经济的法律地 位，标志着关于促进民营经济发展的重大方针政策和重要举措正式 上升为法律规范，有利于加强民营经济发展的法治保障，构建高水 平社会主义市场经济体制、促进民营经济高质量发展。《民营经济 促进法》重点提到要"健全多层次资本市场体系"，债券市场是直 接融资的重要渠道，在支持民营企业融资方面扮演着重要角色， 《民营经济促进法》的出台有望进一步优化民营企业在资本市场的 投融资环境，对债券市场也将带来多方面影响，我们认为具体将体 现在以下四方面。 （一）优化民企投融资机制，助力解决民企账款拖欠难题 《民营经济促进法》针对民营经济发展中面临投资融资问题，细 化、完善了相关制度措 ...

专题研究 2025 年 一季度 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 卢菱歌 lglu@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 债券市场研究 关税风波强化避险属性，重点领域支持再加码 ——从一季度政策环境看债市走向 本期要点 【2024 年债市监管政策一览】稳中求进、 聚势赋能、励新致远，2025-01 【2024 年三季度债市监管政策一览】聚力 稳预期促发展、深化多层次市场建设， 2024-10 【2024 年上半年债市监管政策一览】聚焦 重点、疏堵结合、求新求进，2024-07 【三大视角透视信用风险半年报】转债风 波与地产困局下的信用风险关注，2024-07 【2024 年上半年信用债市场运行情况回顾 与展望】产业债支撑发行恢复、信用利差 再创新低，关注转债市场、超长期信用债 投资机会，2024-07 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731； gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐 ...

保理融资类、基础设施收费类等类别的不同产品之间分层比例存在较大差异 图说资产证券化产品 ——2025年3月 CMBS发行热度提升，ABS一二级市场明显回暖 近期CMBS发行热度提升，有多只首单产品落地。4月15日，洛阳市发行首单CMBS"洛阳国晟商业发展第一期资产支持 专项计划"，总规模13.01亿元，底层资产为洛阳市核心商圈写字楼综合体与商业资产，原始权益人为洛阳国晟商业发展有 限公司，河南中豫信用增进有限公司提供差额支付承诺。产品拥有AAA级信用增信公司担保和现金流双重支持，在提振市场 信心、支持产品发行方面起到积极作用。4月22日，全国首单推动文体旅高质量发展CMBS"兴证圆融-厦门国有资本资产支 持专项计划"簿记，规模为1.11亿元，优先级、次优先级票面利率分别为2.15%和2.28%，原始权益人为厦门国有资本运营 有限责任公司，为国有资本公司盘活文体旅领域存量资产的重要探索。4月25日，湖南建投集团成功发行湖南省属国企首单 商业不动产抵押贷款支持证券（CMBS），募集资金11.01亿元，发行利率2.65%，优先级产品为AAA级，原始权益人为建投地 产，底层资产为建投地产部分经营性物业未来收益权。项目 ...

地方政府与城投行业研究 净融创近三年新低，政策收紧倒逼城投"真转型" 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 城投年报 2025 年 1 月 1 日—3 月 3 1 日 ——城投债市场运行 2025 年一季度回顾与展望 主要观点 ◼ 一季度城投债市场运行五大特点 1、发行、净融资规模创近三年新低：发行规模 1.48 万亿元，同比下降 15.13%；净融资额 751.05 亿元，同比大幅下降 46.76%，均创近三年新低，低层 级、弱资质主体净融下滑显著。城投债发行规模、存量规模在信用债中的占比 均抬升。境内监管趋严下部分城投企业转向境外发债，新发债规模同比增长 9.49%，以区县级、AA 级为主，"134 号文"要求下 1 年期及以下期限占比下降。 2、发行利率整体下行、季度内逐月回升：加权平均发行利率为 2.45%，同 比下降 0.54 个百分点；区县级债券、私募债、短融利率降幅小，AA-级主体发行 利率不降反升，整体看弱资质主体降幅不及较强主体，一方面源于弱资质主体 此前发行利率已经大幅压降，继续降低空间不足；另一方面或源于当前市场对 发债 ...

专题研究 2025 年 1 月 1 日—3 月 3 1 日 【2023 年债市信用风险回顾与下阶段展望】 违约双减、展期持续，债市结果性风险仍 存，2024-1-26 【2023 年三季度债市信用风险回顾与下阶 段展望】展期热潮延续违约收敛，风险暗 存关注四大方面，2023-10-24 【2023 年上半年债市信用风险回顾与下阶 段展望】违约释放趋缓，展期热潮延续， 仍需警惕结构性风险，2023-8-8 到期量增加发行高峰将来临，资产荒缓解 信用利差或难下，销售恢复下挖掘汽车、 电子投资机会--信用债运行半年报，2023- 7-31 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 债券市场研究系列 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 | 姚姝冰 | shbyao@ccxi.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 谭 畅 | chtan@ccxi.com.cn | 中诚信国际研究院院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 多空博弈之下，债市风险知多少？ —— 一季度债市信用风险新特征与关注点 ——本期要点 展望：防风险基调下违约平稳可控，局部关注五类风险 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 有效防范重点 ...

| 作者 | 金融机构部 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 张 | 璐 | 010-66428877-432 | lzhang@ccxi.com.cn | | 邓 | 婕 | 010-66428877-631 | jdeng@ccxi.com.cn | | 陶美娟 | 010-66428877-323 | mjtao@ccxi.com.cn | | | 其他联络人 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金融机构部 | 评级总监 | | | 王雅方 | | 010-66428877 | | | | yfwang@ccxi.com.cn | | 金融机构部 | 评级副总监 | | | 孟 航 | | 010-66428877 | | | | hmeng@ccxi.com.cn | 中诚信国际 中国人身险行业 中国人身险行业展望，2025 年 4 月 www.ccxi.com.cn 行业展望 2025 年 4 月 | 目录 | | | --- | --- | | 摘要 | 1 | | 监管环境 | 2 | | 业务运营 | 3 | | 财务状况 | 7 | | 附 ...