Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The high-pressure situation of implicit debt supervision remains unchanged, and emphasis is placed on preventing the "risk of risk disposal." Local governments are accelerating their exit from the list of key debt provinces. The issuance and trading of local government bonds and urban investment bonds have shown certain trends, and the dynamic adjustment of the debt situation and corporate operations need to be continuously monitored [2][4][8] Summary by Directory 1. News Review - **Policy for Inter - city Railways**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued an opinion to regulate inter - city railway construction, focusing on debt risk control from both asset and liability sides. On the asset side, strict access and exit standards are set based on passenger flow density; on the liability side, high - risk areas are restricted from adding new local government debt for inter - city railway construction [5][6][7] - **Exit from Key Provinces**: Jilin officially announced its successful exit from the list of key debt provinces, and Qinghai aims to exit in 2026. After exiting, the provinces may promote infrastructure investment and economic recovery, but risks such as blind transformation of urban investment enterprises should be watched out for [8] - **"Exit from Platform" of Urban Investment Enterprises**: Nine urban investment enterprises declared to become market - oriented business entities or exit the financing platform list this week, mainly in the infrastructure investment and financing industry. Since October 2023, a total of 1012 enterprises have made such declarations, with more in eastern provinces [11] - **Early Redemption of Bonds**: Twenty - three urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance this week, involving 24 bonds with a total scale of 39.15 billion yuan [13] - **No Postponement or Cancellation of Bond Issuance**: There was no postponement or cancellation of urban investment bond issuance this week [14] 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Local Government Bonds**: The issuance and net financing scale of local government bonds increased this week, and the stock scale exceeded 55 trillion yuan for the first time. A total of 26 local bonds were issued, with new bonds and refinancing bonds issued. The weighted average issuance term decreased, and the issuance cost decreased [14][15] - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The issuance and net financing scale of urban investment bonds increased this week, with a decrease in issuance interest rate and a narrowing of issuance spread. The issuance was mainly private - placement bonds, with a 5 - year term as the main type. The issuer's main body level was mainly AA +. One overseas urban investment bond was issued [20] 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Market Liquidity**: The central bank conducted net investment in the open market, but due to the approaching Spring Festival and tax - payment period, the capital market was tight, and short - term capital interest rates increased [26] - **Level Adjustment and Credit Events**: There were no urban investment level adjustment events or urban investment credit risk events this week [26] - **Local Government Bonds**: The spot trading volume of local government bonds increased by 3.90%, and the maturity yields of most terms decreased, with an average decline of 2.67BP [26] - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The trading volume of urban investment bonds increased by 0.98%, and the maturity yields of most terms decreased, with an average decline of 2.74BP. The credit spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + urban investment bonds narrowed [27] - **Abnormal Trading of Urban Investment Bonds**: Thirteen abnormal transactions of 11 bonds of 9 urban investment entities occurred this week, with a decrease in the number of abnormal transactions, entities, and bonds compared with the previous period [27] 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - Forty - two urban investment enterprises issued announcements on changes in senior management, legal representatives, etc., changes in controlling shareholders and actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, cumulative new borrowings, and name changes [32]

Investment Rating - The report rates the environmental operation industry as stable, with specific segments rated as follows: waste incineration power generation - stable, hazardous waste disposal - negative, and recycling of renewable resources - stable [5] Core Insights - The environmental industry is undergoing a structural transformation driven by both policy and market forces, with waste incineration power generation transitioning towards a market-driven model despite challenges such as regional supply-demand imbalances and reliance on policy for profitability [4][21] - The hazardous waste disposal sector is experiencing profound changes, with persistent overcapacity and intense price competition, leading to pressure on profits and a need for technological breakthroughs and increased industry concentration [22][23] - The recycling of renewable resources is expanding in scale while facing internal challenges, with a focus on technological advancements and efficiency improvements expected to accelerate transformation by 2026 [4][21] Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals - The waste incineration power generation sector is shifting towards a market-driven model, characterized by trends such as network collaboration, market-oriented operations, intelligent upgrades, and international competition [9][20] - The hazardous waste disposal industry is marked by structural overcapacity and low-price competition, with a need for rational behavior among market participants and a focus on resource recovery and digital regulation [22][23] - The recycling industry is experiencing both expansion and structural upgrades, with leading companies expected to gain advantages through core technologies and specialization in emerging sectors [4][21] Financial Performance - Waste incineration companies are benefiting from market-oriented operations and international orders, leading to improved cash flow and reduced leverage [7] - Hazardous waste disposal companies are facing increased operational pressures, with many reporting significant losses and negative cash flow [7] - The financial performance of recycling companies varies widely, with overall profitability remaining moderate and leverage levels slightly increasing [7] Conclusion - The waste incineration sector is expected to achieve a balance between supply and demand through regional collaboration and raw material optimization, with a shift towards diversified revenue models and enhanced technological integration [20][21] - The hazardous waste sector is anticipated to continue facing challenges related to overcapacity and competition, necessitating a focus on high-value resource recovery and digital regulation [22][23] - The recycling industry is projected to undergo significant transformation driven by technological advancements and efficiency improvements, with leading firms positioned to capitalize on these trends [4][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the issuance volume and scale of Asset - Backed Notes (ABN) increased year - on - year, with personal consumer finance and micro - loans being active. The issuance rate was low and declining, and the secondary market was active. Policy support promoted product innovation. In 2026, ABN will continue to play an important role in serving the real economy [5][59] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Issuance - In 2025, 610 ABN products were issued, with a total issuance scale of 571.836 billion yuan, a 9.07% increase from 2024. Among them, 184 Asset - Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) products were issued, with a scale of 172.173 billion yuan, accounting for 30.11% of the ABN issuance scale. The issuance was mainly private placement [5][6] - By major underlying asset categories, debt - related products led with an issuance scale of 500.701 billion yuan, a 12.88% increase, and a scale share of 87.56%. Other categories had different trends [8] - By detailed underlying asset types, personal consumer finance and micro - loans were active, with 343 products issued and a scale of 307.277 billion yuan, accounting for 53.74% of all ABN products [11] - The top four sponsoring institutions were trust companies, with a combined issuance scale of 182.871 billion yuan, accounting for 31.98% of all ABN products. The market had a high concentration of sponsoring institutions [19] - The single - product highest issuance scale in 2025 was 8.72 billion yuan, and the lowest was 0.25 billion yuan. Products with a single - issuance scale in the (5, 10] billion yuan range had the largest number and scale share [21] - The shortest - term product was 0.17 years, and the longest was 23.41 years. Products with a term in the (1, 2] - year range had the largest issuance number and scale [24] - By rating level, AAAsf - rated notes accounted for 90.34% of the issuance scale [25] 3.2 ABCP Product Issuance - In 2025, 184 ABCP products were issued, with a scale of 172.173 billion yuan, a 5.53% year - on - year decrease, accounting for 30.11% of the ABN issuance scale. The detailed underlying asset types mainly included personal consumer finance, subsidy payments, accounts receivable, etc. [27] 3.3 Product Innovation - In 2025, multiple first - of - its - kind products were successfully issued, such as the first science - and - technology supply - chain bill ABN, the first science - and - technology innovation - type REITs in the inter - bank bond market, etc., providing experience for financing and asset revitalization [29] 3.4 Issuance Rate - In 2025, due to the stable and loose monetary policy, the ABN issuance rate remained low and continued to decline compared to the previous year. The spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year AAAsf - rated ABN products compared to Treasury bonds narrowed [30] 3.5 Secondary Market - As of the end of 2025, the ABN product stock scale was 653.621 billion yuan, a 4.31% year - on - year increase. The secondary - market trading volume was 539.205 billion yuan, a 13.15% year - on - year decrease; the number of transactions was 6,224, an 8.24% year - on - year increase, with an average transaction amount of 0.87 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 84.24%. The active underlying asset types in trading were personal consumer finance, class REITs, accounts receivable, and micro - loans [37] 3.6 Public Offering ABN Products - Accounts Receivable ABN: In 2025, 5 publicly - issued accounts receivable ABN products were issued, with a scale of 6.873 billion yuan, a 56.54% year - on - year decrease. All products had difference - making commitments or liquidity support [42] - Lease Receivables ABN: In 2025, 5 lease receivables ABN products were publicly issued, with a scale of 26.555 billion yuan, a 162.50% year - on - year increase. Some products had low default and early - repayment rates [46] - Supply - Chain ABN: In 2025, 22 publicly - issued supply - chain ABN products were issued, with a scale of 12.771 billion yuan, a 49.56% year - on - year increase. The core debtors/credit enhancers were large real - estate enterprises with high credit quality [50] 3.7 ABN Product Tracking - In 2025, the credit ratings of 3 outstanding public - offering ABN products were upgraded because the credit support for the mezzanine notes increased as the senior notes were redeemed [54] 3.8 Policy - In March 2025, the NAFMII issued the "Action Plan for Further Supporting the High - Quality Development of Private Enterprises in the Inter - bank Bond Market", promoting product innovation and optimizing the financing environment for private enterprises [57] - In May 2025, the NAFMII issued the "Notice on Launching Science and Technology Innovation Bonds and Building the 'Science and Technology Board' in the Bond Market", promoting the construction of the "science and technology board" in the bond market and guiding funds into the science and technology innovation field [58]

Investment Rating - The report provides a stable outlook for the local AMC industry, indicating a steady credit level in the future [5][12]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that regulatory policies in 2026 will continue to guide AMCs back to their core responsibilities, focusing on risk resolution for small financial institutions and real estate [5][11]. - The profitability of local AMCs is expected to weaken due to increased competition and challenges in asset disposal, despite government support enhancing their capital strength [5][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable liquidity reserves and effective liquidity management to withstand market fluctuations [5][7]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The current economic environment in China is characterized by moderate recovery and structural transformation, facing challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and rising credit risks [8]. - Local AMCs are increasingly recognized as vital components of the regional financial system, particularly in managing non-performing assets [8]. Industry Policy - Regulatory policies are expected to push AMCs towards their main responsibilities, enhancing their governance and risk management capabilities [9][11]. - The introduction of the "Interim Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Local Asset Management Companies" is anticipated to create short-term pressures on some AMCs while promoting long-term professional development [9][10]. Industry Financing - The financing costs for local AMCs are projected to continue declining due to low market interest rates and improved debt structures [15][19]. - The report notes that the net financing amount for local AMCs is expected to remain stable year-on-year, with ongoing trends of shareholder capital increases [15][19]. Industry Operations - The report highlights that the acquisition of non-performing assets will remain a significant business opportunity for local AMCs, despite challenges in asset quality and disposal difficulties [29][30]. - Local AMCs are expected to innovate their asset disposal methods and enhance operational capabilities to improve recovery efficiency [29][30].

房地产行业 市场跟踪 10 月房地产市场量价承压，"十五五"指 引高质量发展路径——2025 年 11 月房地产 市场跟踪 作者: 中诚信国际 企业评级部 侯一甲 027-87339288 yjhou@ccxi.com.cn 杜志英 027-87339288 zhydu@ccxi.com.cn 新房交易规模仍在下探，"好房子"正成 为支撑市场的主力军——2025 年 10 月房地 产市场跟踪 中央纲领指引高质量发展，地方优化为 "金九银十"蓄力——2025年9月房地产市 场跟踪 其他联络人 贺文俊 027-87339288 wjhe @ccxi.com.cn 行业下行压力加大，中央经济工作会议定 调"着力稳定房地产市场" ——2025 年 12 月房地产市场跟踪 《住房租赁条例》正式出台，完善"租购 并举"制度保障——2025年8月房地产市场 跟踪 "十年再启新章"，从增量扩张到存量提 质，行业加快构建发展新模式——2025年 7 月房地产市场跟踪 专项债土地收储加速，行业延续止跌回稳 态势——2025年 6月房地产市场跟踪 "降准降息、公积金贷款利率下调"三箭 齐发，金融政策协调巩固行业企稳态势— —202 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, China's economy achieved a growth target of around 5% despite challenges, but it also faced structural pressures. In 2026, the economy is expected to grow at 4.8%, likely showing a "low - then - high" trend. To achieve the economic growth target in 2026, comprehensive macro - policies are needed, including fiscal, monetary, and various industry - specific policies [3][7][48] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Review: A Year of "Reconstruction" Amid Interwoven Multiple Variables - **Growth Trend**: In 2025, China's economy showed a "high - then - low" pattern. The real GDP grew 5.0% year - on - year, with nominal growth at 4.0%. Final consumption contributed over half (52%) to GDP growth, but there is room for improvement. Investment weakened, with capital formation contribution declining [9] - **Economic Structure**: The economy maintained a "strong supply, weak demand" pattern. Industrial production grew at about 6%. "Two - new" policies supported the economy in the first half, but domestic demand lacked momentum in the second half. Investment, especially fixed - asset investment, declined, with real estate and infrastructure investment hitting new lows [10] - **Structural Reconstruction**: - **Macroeconomic Narrative**: DeepSeek's technological breakthrough led to a re - evaluation of Chinese assets, especially technology assets, and changed the economic growth narrative [17] - **Export Resilience**: Exports were affected by US tariffs but remained resilient. The export support shifted from Europe and the US to emerging markets, with high - value - added capital and intermediate goods being the main export items [20] - **New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion**: The real estate industry continued to adjust, gradually returning to its livelihood nature. New kinetic energy, such as high - tech industries, played an increasing role in economic growth. "Anti - involution" governance promoted the transformation of emerging industries [25][26] 3.2 Four Constraints on the Economy's Path to a "New Equilibrium" - **Global Political and Economic Landscape**: The global political and economic landscape is evolving rapidly. Sino - US competition intensifies in non - trade areas, and geopolitical frictions with non - US countries are increasing [32] - **Micro - entity Behavior**: The behavior of micro - entities has not emerged from the "post - pandemic" paradigm. Residents' preventive savings are likely to be normalized, and enterprises' investment willingness is still low. Local governments face fiscal and debt constraints [32][35][36] - **New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion**: The transformation from old to new kinetic energy brings downward pressure, fiscal, and employment gaps. New industries are not yet able to fully replace old ones [40] - **High - quality Supply**: The supply of high - quality products and services is insufficient, leading to a mismatch between supply and demand and restricting the release of domestic demand [44] 3.3 2026 Outlook: Expected Economic Growth of 4.8%, with Potential Marginal Improvement in Macro - micro Temperature Difference - **Overall Economic Growth**: In 2026, the economy is expected to show a "low - then - high" trend. Under the neutral scenario, the GDP growth rate is expected to be around 4.8%, with quarterly rates of 4.6%, 4.8%, 4.9%, and 4.9% respectively [7][48] - **Sector - specific Outlook**: - **Production**: Industrial production is expected to remain resilient, with an expected 5.5% increase in industrial added value. The service industry is also expected to grow, with the service production index rising 5.6% [52] - **Exports**: Although there is a base effect, exports are supported by multiple factors. With potential "tactical" easing of Sino - US trade frictions and demand from emerging markets, the export growth rate is expected to be 4.5% [53] - **Investment**: Investment is likely to stop falling and stabilize. Infrastructure and emerging industries will be the main drivers, with overall investment growth expected to reach 2% and narrow - sense infrastructure investment growing by 8% [57] - **Real Estate**: In the short term, the real estate market is still in the inventory - clearing stage, but investment decline is expected to narrow to 10% [58] - **Consumption**: Consumption is expected to have a weak recovery, with total social retail sales growing by 4%. Service consumption has greater growth potential, while commodity consumption is restricted by policy and base effects [60] - **Prices**: The effects of "anti - involution" governance will continue to show, and PPI and CPI are expected to have a mild recovery, potentially improving the macro - micro temperature difference [62] 3.4 Policy Recommendations for Achieving the 2026 Economic Growth Target - **Fiscal and Monetary Policy**: In 2026, the deficit rate should be kept above 4%, and the general fiscal expenditure may reach about 15 trillion yuan. There may be one interest rate cut and 1 - 2 reserve requirement ratio cuts [7][67][69] - **Expanding Domestic Demand**: For consumption, expand subsidies to service consumption, promote full implementation of holidays, and improve the service consumption environment. For investment, play the role of government investment and use the national venture capital guidance fund to attract private capital [70][71] - **Increasing High - quality Supply**: Encourage innovation in products and services, and relax market access to increase high - quality supply [74] - **Cultivating New Kinetic Energy**: Focus on key "choke - point" technologies, strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation, and promote the cluster - based development of strategic emerging industries [74] - **Stabilizing the Real Estate Market**: Improve the "commercial housing + affordable housing" dual - track system, and promote the coordinated development of supply and demand in the real estate market [76] - **Debt Management**: Optimize the debt structure and efficiency, and build a long - term debt management mechanism [77] - **External Response**: Implement a more diversified and in - depth opening - up strategy, expand the foreign trade "circle of friends", and support enterprises to go global [79] - **Reform and System - building**: Promote economic, fiscal, and tax system reforms, and release institutional dividends [81]

Economic Performance - The economy achieved a growth target of 5% for 2025, with a GDP growth rate of 5.0% for the year, maintaining stability despite challenges[8] - Final consumption contributed over 52% to GDP growth, indicating effective policies to boost consumer spending[10] - Industrial production showed strong performance with an industrial added value growth rate of 5.9%, the highest in four years[10] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment experienced a historical decline of 3.8%, marking the first annual negative growth[12] - Infrastructure investment faced challenges, with a significant drop in new special bonds allocated for infrastructure projects, totaling only 2.66 trillion yuan compared to 3.14 trillion yuan the previous year[13] - Real estate investment fell to a record low of -17.2%, reflecting ongoing weaknesses in the sector[15] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth for 2025 was only 3.7%, with December showing a low of 0.9%, the lowest level outside of pandemic periods[10] - Service consumption remained resilient, growing at 5.5%, supported by travel and entertainment demand during peak seasons[10] - The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable, with inflation pressures under control, indicating a manageable economic environment[4] External Factors - Export growth remained robust, with December exports exceeding expectations despite high base effects from the previous year[5] - The trade surplus reached 118.89 billion USD in December, reflecting strong external demand[24] - The economic outlook for 2026 anticipates a growth rate of around 4.8%, supported by new projects and resilient external demand[22]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, influenced by the significant increase in NPL product issuance, the number and scale of credit - asset - backed securities issuances rebounded. The secondary - market trading volume also rebounded, with NPL products and sub - grade securities becoming the main trading components. The spreads of normal - class products continued to decline, while those of NPL products showed differentiation. Retail asset delinquency rates fluctuated at high levels, and the real recovery of NPL products continued to decline [6][7][55]. - In 2026, the credit asset securitization market is expected to be dominated by NPL products. The issuance spreads of other product types are expected to remain low, and the trading proportion of NPL and sub - grade securities in the secondary market is expected to further increase. Retail asset performance is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term, and the actual recovery of NPL products will continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of consumer credit and industry policies [6][55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Issuance - In 2025, a total of 238 credit - asset - backed securities were issued, with a total issuance scale of 291.522 billion yuan, representing a year - on - year increase of 23.96% in the number of issuances and 7.82% in scale. NPL products accounted for 74.79% of the issuance number and 28.15% of the scale, both reaching historical highs [6][7]. - Auto ABS: 32 issues were issued, with a total scale of 118.543 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.58% in scale. Green Auto ABS accounted for 17.62% of the total Auto ABS issuance scale, a decrease of 8.67 percentage points compared to 2024 [10]. - NPL: 178 issues were issued, with a total scale of 82.057 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 36.92% in the number of issuances and 61.32% in scale, and a cumulative disposal of 519.086 billion yuan in non - performing assets [10]. - Micro - enterprise loan ABS: 10 issues were issued, with a total scale of 58.645 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% in the number of issuances and 10.49% in scale [12]. - Personal consumption - loan ABS: 18 issues were issued, with a total scale of 32.277 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.88% in the number of issuances and 32.70% in scale [13]. 3.2 Issuance Interest Rate - In 2025, the issuance interest rate of normal - class asset credit ABS remained low, while the NPL product issuance interest rate deviated from the benchmark interest rate at the end of the year. The issuance interest rates of Auto ABS, personal consumption - loan ABS, and micro - enterprise loan ABS decreased in the first half of the year and then remained stable, while the NPL issuance interest rate increased significantly in the fourth quarter [17]. - The average spread of AAAsf - rated products and the benchmark interest rate was 56bp, and that of AA + sf - rated products was 48bp, a decrease of 2bp and 18bp respectively compared to 2024. The spreads of different types of products all declined to varying degrees, with NPL products still at a relatively high level [20]. 3.3 Secondary Market - By the end of 2025, the credit - asset - backed securities' outstanding scale decreased by 11.85% to 435.812 billion yuan. The trading volume increased by 4.38% to 130.514 billion yuan, the number of transactions increased by 27.90% to 2,388, and the turnover rate increased by 8.83 percentage points to 28.06% [23][25][26]. - NPL products were the main trading variety, with a trading volume of 53.206 billion yuan, accounting for 40.77% of the total trading volume. Auto ABS trading volume was 48.574 billion yuan, accounting for 37.22% of the total trading volume [28]. 3.4 Credit Performance - Auto ABS: The cumulative default rate of recently issued products increased significantly, the delinquency rate increased, and the prepayment rate showed a slow upward trend, with the fluctuation center between 8% - 10% [31][33][35]. - Personal consumption - loan ABS: The performance was significantly differentiated, the delinquency rate fluctuated, and the prepayment rate continued to rise [38][40][43]. - RMBS: The cumulative default rate remained low, the delinquency rate first increased and then decreased, and the prepayment rate fluctuated to a high level and then returned to stability [45][47][49]. - NPL: The real recovery situation declined year by year, and 11 issues of priority - class asset - backed securities failed to be fully redeemed by the expected maturity date [52].

Economic Insights - India's government plans to lift restrictions on Chinese companies participating in government contract bidding, potentially opening a market valued at $750 billion[9] - South Korea's economy shows signs of recovery for three consecutive months, with industrial production increasing by 0.9% and service sector production rising by 0.7% in November[13] - Australia's inflation rate in November was 3.4%, down from 3.8% in October, but still above the central bank's target of 2% to 3%[15] - Egypt's inflation rate stabilized at 12.3% in December, creating potential for further interest rate cuts in 2026[18] Investment and Growth Projections - The UAE's economy is projected to grow by 5% in 2026, outpacing major global economies, driven by diversification and non-oil sector development[20][21] - Turkey's minimum wage will increase by 27% to 28,075 lira (approximately $655) in 2026, although it remains below the poverty line[22][23] - Indonesia's fiscal deficit in 2026 may exceed the legal limit of 3%, reaching 3.5% of GDP due to increased welfare spending[25][26] Sovereign Credit Ratings - Fitch upgraded Benin's sovereign credit outlook to positive, maintaining a B+ rating, reflecting strong economic growth prospects and prudent fiscal policies[43][44] - Fitch also upgraded Armenia's sovereign credit outlook to positive, maintaining a BB- rating, supported by increased international reserves and stable growth[45]

Trade Performance - In December 2025, China's total import and export volume reached $601.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%[2] - Exports amounted to $357.78 billion, growing by 6.6% year-on-year, while imports were $243.64 billion, increasing by 5.7%[2] - The trade surplus for December was $114.14 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year[2] - For the entire year of 2025, exports grew by 5.5% while imports remained flat, resulting in a total trade volume of $6.35 trillion, a historical high[2] Export Dynamics - December 2025 saw a significant increase in exports to Hong Kong (31.3%) and ASEAN (11.1%), while exports to the EU grew by 11.6%[5] - Exports to the US decreased by 30% year-on-year, with a total decline of 20% for the year 2025, reducing its share in total exports to 11.1%[5] - High-tech product exports rose by 16.6%, with automotive exports increasing by 71.7% and integrated circuits by 47.7%[5] Import Trends - December imports increased by 5.7%, surpassing the seasonal average of 4.2% from 2020-2024, driven by domestic demand recovery[11] - Key imports included iron ore and crude oil, which grew by 10.1% and 4.8% respectively[11] - Overall, imports for 2025 remained unchanged compared to the previous year, reflecting a decline in demand for certain high-tech products due to domestic substitution[11] Future Outlook - For 2026, export growth is projected at around 4.5%, while import growth is expected to be about 1%[14] - Factors supporting exports include improved international trade conditions and the industrialization of emerging markets[15] - Challenges include global economic downturns and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in technology sectors[15]