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图说资产证券化产品:REITs支持政策加码激活民间投资,ABS一二市场均有所降温
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-18 09:32
图说资产证券化产品 ——2025年10月 REITs支持政策加码激活民间投资,ABS一二市场均有所降温 国务院支持民间投资项目发行基础设施REITs,以REITs为抓手拓宽民企融资渠道。11月10日,国务院办公厅 印发《关于进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施》(以下简称《措施》)的通知,共提出13条举措,以进一步激 发民间投资活力、促进民间投资发展。《措施》中举措可归纳为扩大准入、打通堵点、强化保障三方面,扩大准 入方面,《措施》鼓励民间资本参与城市基础设施等领域项目,并加大政府采购支持中小企业力度等;打通堵点 方面,提出保障民营企业在电力、运力等资源方面的合法权益,改善民营企业权益保障不足等问题;强化保障方 面,以直接融资、间接融资相结合的方式,加大金融市场对民间投资项目投融资支持力度。 在直接融资方面,《措施》聚焦股权融资和基础设施REITs两类融资工具。一方面是支持突破关键核心技术科 技型企业上市融资、并购重组;另一方面,支持符合条件的民间投资项目发行基础设施领域REITs,拓展资金来 源。近年来,支持民间投资项目发行REITs在政策文件中被多次提及,例如《关于实施促进民营经济发展近期若 干举措的通知》《 ...
2025年货币政策与利率债回顾与2026年展望:货币政策将延续支持性立场,收益率核心区间或为1.7%-1.9%
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-18 09:22
专题研究 2025 年 报 (2025 年 12 月) 利率债研究 货币政策将延续支持性立场 收益率核心区间或为 1.7%-1.9% ——2025 年货币政策与利率债回顾与 2026 年展望 本期要点 作者: 中诚信国际 研究院 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 王 晨 chwang01@ccxi.com.cn 关注二季度货币政策报告释放的四大信号, 2025 年 8 月 恢复征收国债等利息收入增值税的三点意 义——7 月利率运行分析与展望,2025 年 8 月 买断式逆回购首次月初预告,流动性改 善关注短端利率机会 中美关税博弈阶段性缓和,短期内收益率 或阶段性上行,2025 年 5 月 新一轮增量金融政策的四大关注——5 月7 号国新办发布会点评,2025 年 5 月 全面降准或率先落地,关税博弈下收益率 高波动或延续,2025 年 4 月 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731; gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 ...
地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年第 45 期:政治局会议强调加大逆周期跨周期调节,多地“十五五”建议稿提出建立资产负债表-20251218
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-18 09:12
监测周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日—2025 年 12 月 7 日 总第 368 期 2025 年第 45 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 政治局会议强调加大逆周期跨周期调节 多地"十五五"建议稿提出建立资产负债表 ——地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年第 45 期 本期要点 ◼ 要闻点评 作者: 中诚信国际 研究院 鲁 璐 llu@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第44期】基础设施REITs扩围至15大行业, 安徽池州隐性债务实现清零 2025-12-04 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 43 期】国有林场资源被禁止无偿划拨至 城投,吉林融资平台数量已压降超七成 2025-11-27 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 40 期】城市商业提质行动方案出台强化 财政支持,河南拟完善化债债券直拨机制 2025-11-06 如需订阅研究报告,敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731; ...
信用利差周报2025年第47期:中央经济工作会议延续积极政策基调,美联储再度降息减轻外部约束-20251218
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-18 08:01
信用利差周报 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 202 5 年 1 2 月 8 日—12 月 12 日 总第 589 期 2025 年第 47 期 债券市场研究 作者: 中诚信国际 研究院 郝云龙 ylhao@ccxi.com.cn 卢菱歌 lglu@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【信用利差快报 2025 年第 46 期】情绪波 动债市有所调整,政治局会议定调积极政 策稳预期 2025-12-10 【信用利差快报 2025 年第 45 期】交易商 协会优化并购票据工作机制,民营创投科 创债扩容 2025-12-3 【信用利差快报 2025 年第 44 期】LPR 连续 六个月持平,外币主权债券接力发行 2025-11-25 【信用利差周报 2025 年第 43 期】货币政 策报告延续宽松基调,香港百亿数字绿债 落地 2025-11-19 【信用利差周报 2025 年第 42 期】首单科 创可转债获批加强股债联动,债券收益率 走势分化 ...
财报视角图解“一揽子化债”以来基投企业变化
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-11 08:54
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the implementation of the "Comprehensive Debt Resolution Plan," the infrastructure investment and financing industry has entered a "deceleration cycle" in debt net financing, with the debt scale of investment enterprises still growing but at a significantly slower pace, and the "control of increase and resolution of existing debt" has shown results [5][6]. - The financing channels of investment enterprises have been adjusted, with the proportion of bond and non - standard financing in total debt decreasing, and the characteristic of bank - based financing channels becoming more prominent [5][23]. - The overall debt term structure of investment enterprises has not improved significantly, but the short - term debt ratio in most key provinces has decreased or is at a low level, reducing liquidity pressure [5][26]. - The comprehensive financing cost of the investment industry has generally shown a downward trend, with regional differentiation in the decline, and the financing cost reduction in key provinces and economically strong provinces is more obvious [5][28]. - In terms of operation and development, the growth rate of inventory and accounts receivable has slowed down in 2024, and the cash collection has accelerated, but the cash reserve of enterprises is tight, and the investment progress has slowed down [5][36]. - The profitability of investment enterprises has weakened since 2024, and the dependence on government subsidies has increased [5][49][52]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Debt Resolution - **Debt Net Financing in the "Deceleration Cycle"**: After the implementation of the "35 - Document," the debt net financing amount and net financing rate of investment enterprises have declined significantly. Key provinces entered the debt net repayment state earlier, and in 2024, the net financing rate of key provinces dropped to 1.11 times. In 2025, the debt net financing amount and net financing rate continued to decline, and it is expected to remain at a low level in 2026. There are also differences in the debt net financing performance among regions [6]. - **Slowing Debt Growth and Asset Expansion**: The debt scale of investment enterprises is still growing but at a significantly slower pace. Some key provinces have seen a decline in debt scale, and the debt growth rate of non - key provinces has dropped significantly. The asset growth rate has also slowed down, and the asset growth rate of key provinces is significantly lower than that of non - key provinces. The asset - liability ratio and total capitalization ratio of the industry are still rising [13][17]. - **Adjusted Financing Channels**: The bond balance of investment enterprises is still growing, but the growth rate has dropped significantly in 2024. The proportion of bond and non - standard financing in total debt has decreased, and the proportion of bank loans has increased [23]. - **Insignificant Improvement in Debt Term Structure**: The overall short - term debt ratio of investment enterprises has slightly increased, but most key provinces have seen a decrease in the short - term debt ratio or are at a low level. There are also differences in the adjustment of the debt term structure among non - key provinces [26]. - **Declining Financing Costs with Regional Differentiation**: Since 2022, the weighted average financing cost of investment enterprises has been declining. In 2023 and 2024, the financing cost decreased by about 22 and 17 basis points respectively, and in the first half of 2025, it further decreased by 48 basis points. Key provinces and economically strong provinces have more obvious financing cost reduction [28]. Operation and Development - **Slowing Growth of Inventory and Receivables and Faster Cash Collection**: In 2024, the growth rate of inventory and accounts receivable of investment enterprises slowed down, and the cash collection accelerated. However, there are still a large number of projects in progress with slow cash collection. There are also differences in the growth of inventory and accounts receivable among regions [36]. - **Tight Cash Reserves**: Due to project construction and debt repayment in some regions, the cash reserves of investment enterprises are tight. Although the scale of monetary funds increased in the first half of 2025, the proportion in total assets is still low [42]. - **Slowing Investment Progress**: Under the influence of the "Comprehensive Debt Resolution" and tightened financing, the cash expenditure of investment enterprises on infrastructure and self - operated projects has decreased, and the investment progress has slowed down [44]. - **Slowed Transformation Investment and Asset Injection**: The investment in industrial and equity investment for enterprise transformation has slowed down since 2024. The growth of relevant operating assets mainly comes from the injection of shareholders or the government, and the efficient use of existing assets is an important way to improve the operating conditions [47]. - **Weakening Profitability**: The net profit of investment enterprises has been declining, and the profitability has weakened. The period cost has a large impact on profits, and the self - driving force for cost reduction and efficiency improvement needs to be strengthened [49]. - **Increased Dependence on Government Subsidies**: The contribution of investment income and fair - value change gains and losses to profits has not been effectively reflected. The proportion of other income in net profit has increased, and the dependence on government subsidies has increased [52].
资产支持票据产品报告(2025年11月):资产支持票据发行规模同比环比均下降,个人消费金融和小微贷款类资产发行节奏有所回落
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-11 07:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report In November 2025, the issuance scale of asset - backed notes decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the issuance rhythm of personal consumer finance and micro - enterprise loan assets slowed down. The secondary - market trading volume and transaction amount also declined significantly compared with the previous month and the same period last year [3][4][19]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Issuance Situation - **Overall Issuance**: In November 2025, 48 asset - backed note products were issued, with a total issuance scale of 43.08 billion yuan. The number of issuances remained the same as the previous month, but the scale decreased by 16.25%. Compared with the same period last year, the number of issuances decreased by 13, and the scale decreased by 32.29%. Only 2 products were publicly issued, and the rest were privately placed [4][5]. - **Top Issuing Institutions**: Xiamen Trust ranked first in terms of issuance scale in November 2025, with an issuance scale of 3.00 billion yuan, accounting for 6.96%. The top ten issuing institutions had a total issuance scale of 22.636 billion yuan, accounting for 52.54% [5]. - **Underlying Asset Types**: The underlying asset types of the issued products mainly included accounts receivable, subsidies, personal consumer finance, micro - enterprise loans, and general financial leasing. Among them, accounts receivable products accounted for 19.69% of the scale, and subsidy products accounted for 17.98% [7]. - **Issuance Scale Distribution**: The highest single - product issuance scale was 2.069 billion yuan, and the lowest was 0.201 billion yuan. The number and scale of products with a single - issuance scale in the range of (5, 10] billion yuan were the largest, with 27 products issued, accounting for 53.70% of the scale [9]. - **Term Distribution**: The shortest - term product was 0.21 years, and the longest was 18.01 years. The number and scale of products with a term in the range of (0, 1] years were the largest, with 18 products issued, accounting for 34.67% of the scale [11][13]. - **Rating Distribution**: According to the issuance scale of notes at each rating level, AAAsf - rated notes accounted for 87.39%, AA + sf - rated notes accounted for 5.62%, and A + sf - rated notes accounted for 0.12% [13]. - **Issuance Interest Rate**: The minimum issuance interest rate of one - year - around AAAsf - rated notes was 1.65%, the maximum was 2.45%, and the interest - rate center was approximately 1.77% [15]. - **ABCP Product Issuance**: In November 2025, 17 ABCP products were issued, with a total issuance scale of 15.977 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 46.29%, accounting for 37.09% of the ABN issuance scale. The underlying assets mainly included five types, and subsidy - related ABCP accounted for 48.49% of the ABCP issuance scale [18]. 3.2 Secondary - Market Trading Situation In November 2025, there were a total of 478 secondary - market transactions of asset - backed notes. The number of transactions decreased by 21.51% month - on - month and 25.08% year - on - year. The transaction amount was 39.842 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 13.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.76%. The more actively traded categories in the secondary market were mainly REITs - like products, accounts receivable, micro - enterprise loans, personal consumer finance, and subsidies [19].
国际宏观资讯双周报-20251209
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-09 07:07
Economic Insights - UAE's non-oil GDP grew by 5.7% in the first half of 2025, contributing 77.5% to the total GDP, with a projected actual GDP growth of 4.2%[15] - GCC's economic scale is expected to reach $2.3 trillion in 2024, with non-oil economy accounting for 76% of GDP and a trade surplus of $109.7 billion[16] - Iran's non-oil trade volume reached $76.54 billion in the first eight months, a 9.4% year-on-year decline, with exports at $37 billion and imports at $39.54 billion[29] Political Developments - European leaders, including French President Macron, visited China to enhance economic cooperation amid pressures from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Germany and the UK planning similar visits[11] - Bangladesh's new political party faces challenges ahead of the February elections, with a current support rate of only 6%[26] Sovereign Credit Ratings - S&P upgraded Azerbaijan's credit outlook to positive, maintaining a BB+ rating, reflecting reduced conflict risks and strong fiscal buffers[39] - Moody's upgraded Laos' credit rating from Caa3 to Caa2, citing improved external financing and stable macroeconomic conditions[40] - Fitch upgraded Oman's credit rating from BB+ to BBB-, indicating improved public and external asset positions[42] Inflation and Fiscal Policies - Iran's national debt yield surpassed 40%, with tax revenue reaching its highest GDP ratio in nearly seven years, indicating fiscal pressures[21][22] - UAE announced new VAT regulations effective January 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing compliance and administrative efficiency[24] - Saudi Arabia's 2026 budget anticipates a fiscal deficit of $44 billion, approximately 3.3% of GDP, with total expenditures projected at $348 billion[25]
地方政府债与城投行业监测周报2022年第9期:国有林场资源被禁止无偿划拨至城投,吉林融资平台数量已压降超七成-20251202
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-02 05:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - pressure situation of implicit debt supervision remains unchanged, and emphasis is placed on preventing "the risk of risk disposal". The prohibition of free allocation of state - owned forest farm resources to urban investment platforms and the progress of some regions in exiting the list of key debt - risk provinces are significant events that will impact the local government debt and urban investment industry [3][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. News Review - The "Document No. 1343 of Fagai Nongjing" prohibits the free allocation of state - owned forest farm resources to local state - owned investment and financing platforms and provides a market - oriented participation path. This not only ensures the safe and reasonable use of forest farm resources but also provides a model for local government asset allocation to urban investment enterprises, preventing local debt risks and guiding the market - oriented transformation of urban investment enterprises. It also encourages urban investment enterprises to participate in the development and operation of forest farm resources through market - based cooperation [6][9][11]. - Jilin Province has met the conditions to exit the list of key debt - risk provinces, and Anhui Province has taken multiple measures to prevent local debt risks. After Jilin exits the list, there will be both opportunities and risks for local investment and financing. Anhui has proposed five countermeasures to address local debt issues [6][12][13]. - Five urban investment enterprises declared to become market - oriented business entities or exit the financing platform list this week, mainly at the district - county and municipal levels with AA - level ratings. Jilin has become the third province to publicly state that it meets the conditions to exit the list of key debt - risk provinces [6][15]. - Seventeen urban investment enterprises prepaid bond principal and interest this week, involving 21 bonds with a total scale of 2.803 billion yuan [6][20]. - Two urban investment bonds were cancelled this week. As of November 23, 94 urban investment bonds have been postponed or cancelled this year, with a total scale of 60.658 billion yuan [6][21]. 3.2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - This week, the issuance and net financing scale of local government bonds decreased. The issuance progress of new bonds exceeded 90% (excluding the activation of the remaining quota). There is still 357.6 million yuan left in this year's 2 - trillion - yuan replacement quota, and only Henan Province has not completed the issuance. The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 14.30 years, and the weighted average issuance interest rate increased to 2.07% [6][22][23]. - This week, the issuance and net financing scale of urban investment bonds increased, the issuance interest rate decreased, and the spread narrowed. A total of 146 urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 98.416 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance term was 3.44 years. Four overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 2.308 billion yuan [6][29]. 3.3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - This week, the central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 434 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates fluctuated. There were no adjustments to urban investment ratings or credit risk events this week [35]. - The trading volume of local government bond cash bonds increased by 14.00% to 45.5755 billion yuan, and the maturity yield decreased by an average of 2.89BP. The trading volume of urban investment bonds decreased by 1.31% to 27.7139 billion yuan, and the maturity yield fluctuated. The spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year AA+ urban investment bonds widened, while the spread of 5 - year AA+ urban investment bonds narrowed [35]. - Nine urban investment bonds of nine urban investment entities had 11 abnormal trades, with the number of entities, bonds, and abnormal trades decreasing compared to last week [36]. 3.4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - Eighty urban investment enterprises issued announcements regarding changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., changes in controlling shareholders and actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, changes in the use of raised funds, and name changes [41].
企业资产支持证券产品报告(2025年10月):发行规模环比收缩,融资成本下行态势趋缓,二级市场活跃度环比走低但同比仍呈提升趋势
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-11-28 06:01
Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the enterprise asset-backed securities (ABS) products in October 2025, covering issuance, filing, secondary market trading, and maturity situations [4]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the issuance scale of enterprise ABS shrank month - on - month, the downward trend of financing cost slowed, the secondary market activity decreased month - on - month but still showed an upward trend year - on - year [4]. Group 4: Issuance Situation - In October 2025, 105 enterprise ABS were issued, with a total scale of 95.087 billion yuan. The number decreased by 85 and the scale dropped by 42.19% month - on - month, while the number increased by 10 and the scale rose by 21.47% year - on - year [4][5]. - The top five original equity holders in terms of issuance scale were China Pacific Life Insurance Co., Ltd., Huaneng Guocheng Trust Co., Ltd., China CITIC Financial Asset Management Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Zhongrong Micro - loan Co., Ltd., and China Foreign Economic and Trade Trust Co., Ltd., with a total scale of 25.375 billion yuan, accounting for 26.69% [6]. - The top five managers in terms of new management scale were CITIC Securities Co., Ltd., CITIC Construction Investment Securities Co., Ltd., Huatai Securities (Shanghai) Asset Management Co., Ltd., Ping An Securities Co., Ltd., and Shanghai Guotai Haitong Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd., with a total scale of 56.361 billion yuan, accounting for 59.27% [6]. - The underlying asset types mainly included personal consumer finance, enterprise financial leasing, accounts receivable, micro - loans, and policy - pledged loans [4]. - The interest rate center of AAAsf - rated securities with a maturity of about one year was approximately between 1.80% - 2.00%, with the median unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of about 47BP [4]. Group 5: Filing Situation - In October 2025, 130 enterprise ABS were filed with the Asset Management Association of China, with a total scale of 135.031 billion yuan [4][22]. Group 6: Secondary Market Trading Situation - In October 2025, there were 3,463 transactions of enterprise ABS in the exchange market, with a total turnover of 81.889 billion yuan. The number of transactions decreased by 549 month - on - month and increased by 659 year - on - year, and the turnover decreased by 23.47% month - on - month and increased by 34.63% year - on - year [4][23]. - The more active underlying asset types in the secondary market were REIT - like products, accounts receivable, CMBS, personal consumer finance, and enterprise financial leasing, with turnover accounting for 29.56%, 12.71%, 11.51%, 11.13%, and 8.52% respectively [23]. Group 7: Maturity Situation - In November 2025, 387 outstanding enterprise ABS were due, with a total scale of 91.943 billion yuan [4][25]. - The main underlying asset types of the due ABS were accounts receivable, supply chain, personal consumer finance, and policy - pledged loans, with due scales accounting for 44.48%, 22.92%, 9.45%, and 4.89% respectively [25]. - The top three original equity holders in terms of due scale were China Railway Capital Co., Ltd., China Railway Construction Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., and Shenzhen Qianhai Lianyirong Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., with due scales accounting for 15.37%, 7.53%, and 5.57% respectively [25].
2025年11月房地产市场跟踪:10月房地产市场量价承压,“十五五”指引高质量发展路径
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-11-28 05:24
Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, suggesting a positive long-term outlook for the industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a new development model in real estate, focusing on optimizing supply structures and enhancing living quality, which is a strategic move to address deep-rooted issues in the sector [2][3]. - The report highlights a shift from short-term regulatory measures to long-term mechanisms, indicating a more sustainable approach to managing the real estate market [5]. - The emphasis on "good housing" reflects a commitment to improving housing quality and meeting diverse housing needs, which is expected to enhance consumer confidence and stabilize the market [3][5]. Market Tracking Summary - In October, new home prices continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 19.60% in sales area and 25.06% in sales amount, indicating significant downward pressure [6]. - The report notes that the inventory of unsold properties remains high, despite a continuous decrease in the area of unsold properties for eight months [6][8]. - The financing environment for real estate companies is showing signs of improvement, with a net inflow of funds in the bond market, although market sentiment remains cautious [9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates a significant decline in land transaction volumes and prices, with a 13% decrease in land area and a 20% drop in transaction value in October [7]. - The focus on revitalizing underutilized land and properties is highlighted as a key strategy for addressing supply-side challenges [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the need for a multi-tiered housing supply system to meet the diverse needs of different demographic groups, particularly for affordable and improved housing [5].