通信行业2024年中期投资策略 AI连接需求旺盛,卫星组网即将展开 www.swsc.com.cn 西南证券研究发展中心 通信研究团队 2024年7月 投资要点 AI浪潮催生算力要求,推理侧连接需求持续提升。AIGC带来的超大算力需求拉动通信基础设施建设 及扩容,光模块作为数据传输的基础部件,需求首先迎来爆发。同时随着光连接高速率、大密度方 向发展,22年为800G元年,市场出货量约为万只级别,23年逐步起量,24年随着大模型厂商加速 AI建设,加单意愿强烈、节奏频繁,预计将迎来爆发式增长。同时随着芯片速率翻倍,英伟达的 B100和H200等产品将逐步标配1.6T光模块,光模块更新迭代也将加速。中国光模块企业占据全球 60%以上的市场份额,进入市场较早,先发优势显著,拿下北美订单具有高确定性,同时业绩能见 度高、落地性强,建议持续关注。 1 卫星互联网建设序幕拉开,将带来新一轮资本投入。卫星互联网建设需求具有较高确定性:其一, 卫星互联网在国家安全领域的重要作用已得到充分显现,建设自主可控的宽带卫星星座刻不容缓; 其二,低轨轨道资源和通信频段资源稀缺,在国际电联"先占先得"规则下,我国需要快速抢占低 轨卫星资 ...

请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 估值周报（0708-0712） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|--------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|---------------|--------| | 指 餐 | PE-TTM(本周) | 1年PE分位费 | 3年PE分位费 | 5年PE分住费 | PE-TTM (上周) | 関环比 | | 恒生物领 | 9.44 | 92. 1% | 49. 4% | 36. 3% | 9.29 | 0.16 | | 恒生科技 | 23. 79 | 76. 4% | 25. 3% | 19. 4% | 22. 69 | 1. 10 | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 29. 71 | 100, 0% | 98. 7% | 93.0% | 28. 33 | 1. 38 | | 的斯达克指数 | | 100.0% | 96. 8% | 79. 1% | 45. 23 | 0.08 | | | | 100. ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 07 月 14 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•国防军工 军工行业周报(7.8-7.14) 业绩预告集中披露,符合预期、静待拐点 [本周( Table_Summary 7月 8日-7]月 14日),SW 军工板块报收 1206.6点,上涨 1.2%,板块 排名第 9。同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.2%,创业板指数上涨1.7%。 行业动态: 业绩预告集中披露,已披露的 36家上市公司中共 9家公司预计净利润同比增 加/减亏/扭亏为盈。截至 7 月 12 日,共 36家军工上市公司发布业绩预告,其 中 26 家企业净利润预计同比降低/转亏:8家上市公司预计净利润同比增加/减 亏;1 家上市公司预计扭亏为盈;1 家上市公司暂不确定。 军工行业生产交付与收入确认周期长,业绩预告整体上符合预期,静待修复与 反转。军工行业 2024H1业绩预告整体上符合市场预期,因多数军工产品并非 货架商品,具有定制性、计划性和相对较长的研究、生产、交付、确认周期, 故 2024年中期业绩主要反映的是 2022年至 2024年年初的订单状况与行业景 气度,不影响我们 ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 07 月 14 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•国防军工 军工行业周报(7.8-7.14) 业绩预告集中披露,符合预期、静待拐点 [本周( Table_Summary 7月 8日-7]月 14日),SW 军工板块报收 1206.6点,上涨 1.2%,板块 排名第 9。同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.2%,创业板指数上涨1.7%。 行业动态: 业绩预告集中披露,已披露的 36家上市公司中共 9家公司预计净利润同比增 加/减亏/扭亏为盈。截至 7 月 12 日,共 36家军工上市公司发布业绩预告,其 中 26 家企业净利润预计同比降低/转亏:8家上市公司预计净利润同比增加/减 亏;1 家上市公司预计扭亏为盈;1 家上市公司暂不确定。 军工行业生产交付与收入确认周期长,业绩预告整体上符合预期,静待修复与 反转。军工行业 2024H1业绩预告整体上符合市场预期,因多数军工产品并非 货架商品,具有定制性、计划性和相对较长的研究、生产、交付、确认周期, 故 2024年中期业绩主要反映的是 2022年至 2024年年初的订单状况与行业景 气度,不影响我们 ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 07 月 14 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业创新药周报(7.8-7.14) 2024 年 7 月第二周创新药周报 (附小专题 GPC3 ADC 研发概况) A 股和港股创新药板块及 XBI 指数本周走势 西南证券研究发展中心 [2024 Table_Summary 年 7月第 2周,陆港两地创新药板块共计 ] 39个股上涨,21个股下跌。其中 涨幅前三为圣诺医药-B (+32.76%)、加科思-B(+20.83%)、北海康成-B(+15.63%)。 跌幅前三为荣昌生物(-28.17%)、荣昌生物-B(-24.07%)、永泰生物-B(-9.17%)。 本周 A 股创新药板块上涨 3.36%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.15pp,生物医药上涨 0.78%。近 6个月 A 股创新药累计上涨 0.08%,跑输沪深 300指数 3.54pp,生物 医药累计下跌 10.84%。 本周港股创新药板块上涨 2.03%,跑输恒生指数 0.75pp,恒生医疗保健上涨 0.79%。近 6个月港股创新药累计下跌 4.23%,跑输恒生指数 11 ...

Group 1 - Wuxi Jinghai (836547) focuses on amino acids primarily for the pharmaceutical sector, with applications in food, health products, and cosmetics [1] - The company is making significant progress in expanding its customer base and business, particularly in the overseas pharmaceutical and health product markets, including efforts for EU CFP registration and Japan IP registration [1] - Tress (834014) has repurchased 2.602 million shares, accounting for 2.1% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of 5.23 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The North Exchange has seen updates from five companies regarding their IPO projects, with four under inquiry and one submitted for registration [2][3] - The North Exchange's overall performance was strong, with the North Certificate 50 index rising by 0.1% as of July 12, 2024, although it lagged behind the ChiNext index by approximately 1.7 percentage points [40][44] - The average market capitalization of companies on the North Exchange is 1.22 billion yuan, significantly lower than the average market capitalization of companies on the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board [45][60] Group 3 - Kang Le Wei Shi announced plans to issue up to 108 million overseas listed ordinary shares, marking a significant step in the "North + H" model, which aims to enhance financing channels for companies listed on the North Exchange [7] - The North Exchange's theme funds performed weakly overall, with the Huaxia North Exchange Innovation Small and Medium Enterprises Fund showing a notable increase of approximately 4.4% [14][15] - The North Exchange's trading volume for the week was 13.74 billion yuan, with an average weekly trading amount of 0.55 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 12.91% [43][60]

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 07 月 14 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报(0708-0714) 协作机器人龙头上市提速,中国电信与优必选合作 行情回顾: [Table_Summary 本周(]7 月 8 日-7 月 14 日)机器人指数跑输大盘。中证机器人指 数下跌 0.4%,跑输上证指数 1.1个百分点,跑输沪深 300指数约 1.6个百分点, 跑输创业板指约 2.1个百分点;国证机器人指数上涨 0.2%,跑输上证指数 0.5 个百分点,跑输沪深 300指数约 1.0个百分点,跑输创业板指约 1.5个百分点。 中国电信与优必选合作打造首款"AI 大模型家庭桌面人形机器人",力争未来 销量不低于 10万台。7月 10日,中国电信陕西公司与优必选签署战略合作协 议,此次合作将打造首款"AI 大模型家庭桌面人形机器人",以优必选悟空机 器人为原型、以中国电信星辰大模型为底座,进行全方位 AI升级和硬件升级。 中国电信陕西公司将积极开放在陕西省内的销售渠道,力争该机器人在陕西省 内销量不低于 10 万台。 谷歌使用 Gemini AI 训练机器人 ...

[2024 Table_IndustryInfo 年 07 月 13 日 ] 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业周报(7.8-7.12) 关注低估值板块超跌反弹 [行情回顾: Table_Summary 本周医药生物指数下跌 ] 0.08%,跑输沪深 300 指数 1.29 个百分 点,行业涨跌幅排名第 21。2024 年初以来至今,医药行业下跌 21.07%,跑 输沪深 300 指数 22.27 个百分点,行业涨跌幅排名第 26。本周医药行业估值 水平(PE-TTM)为 24 倍,相对全部 A 股溢价率为 74.39% (+1.06pp),相对剔 除银行后全部 A 股溢价率为 30.05% (+1.04pp),相对沪深 300 溢价率为 107.42% (+1.11pp)。本周相对表现最好的是医院,上涨 2.3%。 关注低估值板块超跌反弹。7 月 10 日,为全面贯彻落实《中共中央国务院关 于促进中医药传承创新发展的意见》,进一步加强中药标准管理,建立符合中 医药特点的中药标准管理体系,推动中药产业高质量发展,根据相关法律、法 规、规章和规范性文件,国家药监局组织制定了《中药标准管 ...

Monetary Trends - M2 balance reached 305.02 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, down by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and 5.1 percentage points from the same period last year[1] - M1 balance stood at 66.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 5.0%, down by 0.8 and 8.1 percentage points from the previous month and the same period last year, respectively[1] - The M1-M2 spread remained at 11.2 percentage points, unchanged from the previous month[1] Deposit Trends - RMB deposits increased by 11.46 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with household deposits rising by 9.27 trillion yuan and non-financial corporate deposits decreasing by 1.45 trillion yuan[1] - In June, RMB deposits increased by 2.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.25 trillion yuan, mainly due to a significant drop in corporate deposits, which increased by 1 trillion yuan, down by 1.06 trillion yuan year-on-year[1] - Household deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan in June, down by 533.6 billion yuan year-on-year, possibly linked to early mortgage repayments[1] Social Financing - Social financing stock grew by 8.1% year-on-year in June, down by 0.3 percentage points from May[11] - In June, social financing increased by 3.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 928.3 billion yuan, with RMB loans to the real economy increasing by 2.2 trillion yuan, down by 1.05 trillion yuan year-on-year[11] - Direct financing accounted for a larger share of social financing, with government bond financing increasing by 848.7 billion yuan, up by 311.6 billion yuan year-on-year[16] Corporate and Household Loans - Corporate short-term loans increased by 670 billion yuan in June, down by 74.9 billion yuan year-on-year, while medium- and long-term loans increased by 970 billion yuan, down by 623.3 billion yuan year-on-year[22] - Household loans increased by 570.9 billion yuan in June, down by 393 billion yuan year-on-year, with short-term loans increasing by 247.1 billion yuan, down by 244.3 billion yuan year-on-year, and medium- and long-term loans increasing by 320.2 billion yuan, down by 142.8 billion yuan year-on-year[23] Policy and Market Outlook - Monetary policy is expected to remain stable, with structural tools being deployed precisely, potentially leading to a steady M2 growth and a rebound in M1 growth as corporate expectations improve[1] - The "squeezing out water" effect in financial data is expected to gradually release, and with policy-driven financial precision, social financing growth is likely to stabilize and recover[12]

进、出口走势缘何继续分化？ | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...