供应保障力度加大。长江流域将进入"七下八上"防汛关键期，7 月 14 日 23 时，三峡水库 水位已达 166.03 米，较常年同期大幅度偏高，未来十天长江上游嘉陵江、岷江等流域还将 有持续性强降雨过程，汛情发展不确定性大。7 月 9 日，财政部会同水利部下达中央财政水 利救灾资金 8.48 亿元，支持湖南、江西、湖北、广东、福建、浙江、广西、安徽、贵州、 重庆、黑龙江、云南等 12 省（自治区、直辖市）做好度汛救灾相关工作，重点对受灾地区 开展洪涝水毁堤坝等水利工程设施修复、风险隐患处置等相关工作给予适当补助，预计水利 相关基建投资仍将保持较高增速。7 月份，地方政府专项债发行进度仍较缓慢，截至 7 月 15 日，当月仅发行约 801.86 亿元。从石油沥青开工的高频数据看，截至 7 月 10 日，7 月石油 沥青装置开工率仍在低位，当周仅 25.2%，低于去年 7 月均值 35.75%。后续专项债发行进 度有望进一步加快，对基建投资形成支撑，加之去年下半年基数走低，预计全年广义基建投 资增速温和回升至 8.5%左右。 全国房地产开发投资 52529 亿元，同比下降 10.1%，降幅持平于 1-5 月，较整 ...

电力设备新能源2024年中期投资策略 行业依旧成长,估值有望修复 西南证券研究发展中心 电力设备新能源研究团队 2024年7月 www.swsc.com.cn 光伏:1)2024年,在组件价格触底及全球经济恢复双重影响下,全球光伏装机有望实现30%以上增长 ;2)N型技术将替代Perc成为主流技术,相关技术企业受益;3)各环节产能快速释放进入尾声,供给 环节有望出现结构性机会;4)我们看好格局优化后,需求快速增长带来的beta机会。以及各环节具备成 本与规模优势的龙头企业。 锂电池:1)2024年,预计海外EV销量增速30%以上,国内EV销量增速20%左右,成长性仍在;2)产 业链整体供需情况仍然较为宽松,产能利用率偏低,但由于不同梯队企业成本差异,行业盈利能力预计 已经触底;3)关注各环节出海进度,短期海外或出现供需错配;4)关注前驱体环节一体化进程,看好 三元材料中远期市占率反弹;5)消费锂电需求有望反弹,带动相关板块beta机会。 电力设备:1)新能源并网需求拉动电网投资。国内特高压建设进入高峰期,相关电网设备公司未来3年 盈利增长确定性高;2)电网投资侧重配用电为长期趋势,建议关注二次设备及一二次融合 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. (3808.HK) [1] Core Views - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 3.07 to 3.42 billion for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30% to 45% [2] - The company has solidified its leading position in the market, with a market share of 27.6% and a year-on-year sales growth of 7% [2] - The gas heavy truck segment has shown significant growth, with sales increasing by 273% year-on-year [2] - Export demand remains strong, with the company achieving a 40% share of the heavy truck export market [2] - The company's stock incentive plan reflects confidence in future performance, with ambitious revenue and profit margin targets set for 2024-2026 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue of RMB 85.5 billion for 2024, with a growth rate of 18.65% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 6.5 billion for 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 22.19% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from RMB 1.93 in 2023 to RMB 2.35 in 2024 [3] Market Position - The company has maintained its leading position in the heavy truck market, with a cumulative sales volume of 139,000 units in H1 2024 [2] - The launch of the new HOWO-TS7 gas truck is anticipated to enhance the company's competitiveness in the gas vehicle market [2] Export and International Strategy - The heavy truck industry exported 152,000 units in H1 2024, with the company exporting 62,900 units, maintaining its top position in the industry [2] - The company set a record for monthly exports in February 2024, shipping 14,000 units [2] Future Outlook - The stock incentive plan aims for revenue targets of RMB 94.8 billion, RMB 109.1 billion, and RMB 125.5 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - The company expects to achieve a net profit margin of at least 7.5% in 2024, increasing to 8.5% by 2026 [2]

[Table_StockInfo] 2024 年 07 月 09 日 证券研究报告•公司研究报告 买入 (维持) 当前价:46.24 元 今 世 缘(603369)食品饮料 目标价:60.80 元(6 个月) 省内精耕省外突破,新百亿路径清晰 [Table_Summary 推荐逻辑:1、受益于品牌意识增强、"少喝酒、喝好酒"健康观念广泛传播, ] 马太效应显著,市场份额加速向头部酒企集中;江苏两强酒企省内市占率合计 在 40%左右,集中度提升空间广阔,公司在江苏省内的品牌力、产品力具备突 出竞争优势,将充分受益行业份额集中度提升红利。2、公司的品牌、产品、渠 道得到全面理顺,品牌建设卓有成效,产品焕新升级顺利,渠道推力持续增强; 国缘开系基本盘不断夯实,六开成功上市、四开顺利焕新升级,产品升级节奏 稳健;受益国缘品牌势能增强,叠加自身产品力突出,淡雅显著高增放量。3、 省外继续坚持"攻城拔寨",启动"再造江苏"工程,聚焦板块市场打造,点状 市场不断取得突破,2023年省外营收增长 40%,随着省外市场开拓力度持续加 大,高增势能有望延续。 行业马太效应明显,名优白酒份额持续提升。1、高端一线名酒充分打开价格空 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Follow the Market" rating for the media and entertainment industry [1] Core Views - The media sector underperformed this week, declining by 2.94%, lagging behind the ChiNext Index by 4.64 percentage points and the CSI 300 by 4.15 percentage points [2] - Sub-sectors such as gaming, advertising, sports, and education all underperformed the market, with the education sector showing the most significant decline [2] - Key investment opportunities are highlighted in companies like Mango Excellent Media (300413) and Shenzhou Taiyue (300002) [2] Weekly Market Review - The media sector declined by 2.94%, underperforming both the ChiNext Index and the CSI 300 [6] - Gaming, advertising, sports, and education indices all underperformed the CSI 300, with the education sector showing the largest gap [7][8][9] Film Industry - Weekly box office revenue reached 1.01 billion yuan, with "Silent Kill" contributing 520 million yuan, accounting for 51.4% of the total [11] - Upcoming releases include "Catch the Doll" on July 16 and "Crisis Route" on September 30 [12][20] Gaming Industry - Top-performing games on the iOS bestseller list include "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin," "Honor of Kings," and "Peace Elite" [22] - "Seven Days World" launched on Steam on July 10, attracting 131,894 concurrent players within 24 hours [26] - "Pokémon Sleep" generated 720 million yuan in revenue in its first year, with over 20 million downloads [26] Sports Industry - The AFC renewed its partnership with Saudi Arabia's NEOM project, extending the collaboration until 2029 [30] - NHL signed a multi-year agreement with New Era Cap for global merchandise production [32] Education Industry - The Ministry of Education initiated the first batch of new-era Marxist engineering textbooks [33] - The National College Student Employment Service Platform launched 12 recruitment events to support 2024 graduates [33] Investment Recommendations - Mango Excellent Media (300413) is recommended due to its strong self-produced variety shows and state-owned media value [37] - Shenzhou Taiyue (300002) is highlighted for its rapid growth in gaming and AI-driven digital transformation [37]

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 07 月 14 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•汽车 汽车行业周报(7.8-7.12) 第 14 届汽车论坛闭幕,多地推进智驾商业化应用 行情回顾: [Table_Summary] 上周,SW 汽车板块上涨 5.4%,沪深 300上涨 1.2%。估值上,截 止 7 月 12 日收盘,汽车行业 PE(TTM)为 21 倍,较前一周上涨 5.9%。 投资建议:工业和信息化部副部长辛国斌在第 14 届中国汽车论坛上表示,工 信部将着力保障汽车产业稳定运行,落实行业稳增长工作方案,深化实施汽车 以旧换新行动,深入开展新能源汽车下乡,县域充放电基础设施补齐短板,公 共领域车辆全面电动化试点,加快推动高级别自动驾驶智能网联汽车商业化应 用等行动,积极扩大汽车消费,巩固产业稳中向好的发展态势。新能源方面, 乘联会初步统计,7月 1-7日新能源乘用车市场零售 13万辆,同比+37%,环 比+3%,新能源乘用车仍是后续支撑车市增长的重要力量。智能驾驶方面,北 京市拟支持自动驾驶汽车用于城市公共电汽车客运、网约车、汽车租赁等城市 出行服务。上海市拟有序开放新城 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Market Perform" for the media industry [1]. Core Insights - The media sector experienced a general decline of 2.94% this week, underperforming the ChiNext Index by approximately 4.64 percentage points, which rose by 1.69%. It also lagged behind the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 1.20% [7][9]. - The report highlights specific underperformance in sub-sectors, including gaming, advertising, sports, and education, with respective indices showing declines against the broader market [9][12][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The media sector's performance was lackluster, with a decline of 2.94%, underperforming the ChiNext Index by 4.64 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 4.15 percentage points [7]. 2. Gaming Industry - The CITIC Gaming Index (CI005577) fell by 1.91%, while the CSI 300 rose by 1.20%, resulting in a relative decline of 3.12% [9]. - The top three gainers in the A-share gaming sector were Baotong Technology, Zhongnan Culture, and Century Huatong, while the biggest losers were Jibite, Yaoji Technology, and Caesar Culture [9]. 3. Advertising Industry - The CITIC Advertising Index (CI005847) decreased by 1.92%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.13% [10]. - The top three gainers in the A-share advertising sector were Dingsheng Shares, Lio Shares, and Zitian Technology, while the biggest losers were Fushi Holdings, Jiayun Technology, and Huayang Lianzhong [10]. 4. Sports Industry - The CSI Sports Index (399804) dropped by 1.52%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.72% [10]. 5. Education Industry - The CITIC Education Index (CI005816) fell by 4.31%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 5.52% [12]. - The Hong Kong education index (887671) decreased by 4.08%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 4.27% [12]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Mango Super Media (300413) and Shenzhou Taiyue (300002) as potential investment opportunities [1].

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 07 月 14 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•汽车 汽车行业周报(7.8-7.12) 第 14 届汽车论坛闭幕,多地推进智驾商业化应用 行情回顾: [Table_Summary] 上周,SW 汽车板块上涨 5.4%,沪深 300上涨 1.2%。估值上,截 止 7 月 12 日收盘,汽车行业 PE(TTM)为 21 倍,较前一周上涨 5.9%。 投资建议:工业和信息化部副部长辛国斌在第 14 届中国汽车论坛上表示,工 信部将着力保障汽车产业稳定运行,落实行业稳增长工作方案,深化实施汽车 以旧换新行动,深入开展新能源汽车下乡,县域充放电基础设施补齐短板,公 共领域车辆全面电动化试点,加快推动高级别自动驾驶智能网联汽车商业化应 用等行动,积极扩大汽车消费,巩固产业稳中向好的发展态势。新能源方面, 乘联会初步统计,7月 1-7日新能源乘用车市场零售 13万辆,同比+37%,环 比+3%,新能源乘用车仍是后续支撑车市增长的重要力量。智能驾驶方面,北 京市拟支持自动驾驶汽车用于城市公共电汽车客运、网约车、汽车租赁等城市 出行服务。上海市拟有序开放新城 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power (000338) with a current price of 14.27 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.46-6.24 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.0%-60.0% [2]. - The demand for gas engines is strong, significantly enhancing the company's profitability, with a projected net profit of 8.08 billion CNY for 2023, up 146.1% year-on-year [2]. - The company is actively developing new market demands and optimizing its product structure, which is expected to contribute to further performance improvements [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 2.86-3.64 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 40.0%-78.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.0%-40.0% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 2024 is projected to be 3.25 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 59.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.0% [2]. - The company expects to achieve net profits of 11.85 billion CNY, 13.65 billion CNY, and 15.67 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.2% [2][3]. Market Demand and Product Development - The sales of natural gas heavy trucks reached 152,000 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 307%, with 109,000 units sold in the first half of 2024, up 104% year-on-year [2]. - The company showcased its M33/M55 series large-bore power generation products at the 2024 China (Shanghai) International Power Equipment and Generator Set Exhibition, targeting high-end markets [2]. Subsidiary Performance - The subsidiary Kion achieved a revenue of 87.52 billion CNY in 2023, up 10.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.09 billion CNY, up 336.9% year-on-year [2]. - Other subsidiaries like Shaanxi Heavy Truck and Lovol are also expected to improve profitability, benefiting the overall profit growth of the company [2].

请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------|----------------------|--------------|-------------|----------------------| | 区域 | [Table_SalesPerson] 姓名 | 职务 | 座机 | 手机 | 邮箱 | | | 蒋诗烽 | 总经理助理、销售总监 | 021-68415309 | 18621310081 | jsf@swsc.com.cn | | | 崔露文 | 销售副总监 | 15642960315 | 15642960315 | clw@swsc.com.cn | | | 谭世泽 | 高级销售经理 | 13122900886 | 13122900886 | tsz@swsc.com.cn | | | 李煜 | 高级销售经理 | 18801732511 | 18801732511 | yfliyu@swsc.com.cn | | | 卞黎 旸 | 高级销售经理 | 132629 ...