Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoints - The latest allocation strategy includes sectors such as banking, pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, transportation, basic chemicals, and computers. The monthly return for the portfolio in November 2024 was 1.19%, underperforming the industry benchmark by 0.12% [1]. - The report highlights a marginal change in the industry rotation model, with a focus on non-bank financials, banking, automobiles, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and communications. The portfolio's monthly return for November 2024 was 0.58%, underperforming the industry benchmark by 0.73% [1]. - The ETF portfolio is constructed with allocations to banking, non-bank financials, computers, automobiles, and non-ferrous metals [1]. Sector Allocation Performance - In November 2024, the recommended sectors based on the similar expected difference model included banking, pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, transportation, basic chemicals, and computers, with a portfolio return of 1.19% [41]. - The previous months' performance showed varying returns, with notable returns in September 2024 at 20.06% for banking and non-ferrous metals, while August 2024 saw a decline of -5.84% in real estate and steel [41]. Model Insights - The similar expected difference factor model demonstrated a strong industry selection capability, with an average Information Coefficient (IC) of 0.11 and a success rate of 63.16% over the sample period from December 2016 to November 2024 [31]. - The dynamic analyst expectation factor also showed significant industry selection ability, with an average IC of 0.06 and a success rate of 58.95% during the same period [45]. ETF Portfolio Construction - The ETF portfolio includes various funds such as the Southern CSI Bank ETF with a share of 7.68 billion, and the Huatai CSI Bank ETF with 30.44 billion shares, among others in the banking and non-bank financial sectors [62].

202X`4[Table_ReportInfo] 年 11 月 30 日 证券研究报告•市场周评 北交所周报（11.25-11.29） 五新隧装拉开北交所定增并购序幕， 胜业电气上市首日涨超 4 倍 摘要 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Summary] 周观点：本周，北交所整体表现较强：北证 50指数较周一（11月 25日）开 盘市值下降 1.0%，周成交额为 1640.8 亿元，低于上周水平。本周内北交所 259 只个股中有 137股票上涨，2只股票持平，120只股票下跌。其中，胜业 电气区间内上涨 405.9%，派诺科技区间内下跌 18.1%。本周北交所主题基金 产品与北交所指数基金产品整体表现均较弱。本周，共 7 家企业更新发行上 市项目审核动态，1家企业上市委会议通过，3家企业已问询，1家企业注册， 2 家企业已终止。11月 29日，北交所网站发布消息，为落实证监会《上市公 司监管指引第 10号—市值管理》《上市公司监管指引第 3号—上市公司现金 分红》《上市公司股份回购规则》相关要求，本所制定、修订了估值提升计 划、现金分红、股份回购相关公告格式模板。北交所作为服务创新型中小企 业的重要平台， ...

Economic Growth and Policy Outlook - China's GDP growth target for 2025 is around 5%, driven by policy support and domestic demand, with potential external shocks from Trump's policies[7] - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 8% in 2025, supported by domestic and international restocking and policy incentives[20] - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow by 9% in 2025, fueled by increased issuance of special bonds and local government bonds[31] Real Estate and Investment Trends - Real estate investment growth is expected to converge to -3% in 2025, with policy support reducing its drag on economic growth[44] - Land transaction activity has increased significantly since September 2024, with land premium rates around 4%[43] Consumption and Inflation - Social retail sales growth is expected to rebound to 5% in 2025, driven by policy support for consumption and service sectors[55] - CPI growth is forecasted to rise to 1-1.5% in 2025, with food prices stabilizing and non-food prices remaining weak[72] Trade and External Factors - Export growth is expected to be around 3% in 2025, with a potential boost from preemptive exports before new tariffs take effect[82] - Import growth is projected to reach 2% in 2025, supported by domestic demand recovery and lower base effects[85] Industrial and Technological Shifts - The shift of industries to western China is accelerating, with a focus on strategic emerging industries like new energy and electronics[4] - New infrastructure investment, particularly in digital and AI sectors, is expected to grow significantly in 2025[35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Sainuo Medical, Enhua Pharmaceutical, and Shanghai Laishi, among others [5][24]. Core Insights - The new medical insurance directory has been released, adding 91 new drugs with an average price reduction of 63%. A total of 117 drugs participated in the negotiation, with a success rate of 76% [2][18]. - The pharmaceutical industry index rose by 2.95% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.63 percentage points. However, the industry has declined by 9.29% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 by 23.43 percentage points [1][41]. - The valuation level of the pharmaceutical industry (PE-TTM) is currently at 27.24 times, with a premium of 82% relative to the entire A-share market [1][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy and Key Stocks - The report highlights the performance of key stocks, with Sainuo Medical showing expected results and awaiting new product launches. Enhua Pharmaceutical is noted for steady growth and accelerated innovation [25][27]. - The recommended stock combinations include Sainuo Medical, Enhua Pharmaceutical, Shanghai Laishi, and others, with a focus on their growth potential and market performance [20][24]. 2. Pharmaceutical Industry Secondary Market Performance - The pharmaceutical index's performance is detailed, showing a weekly increase and a year-to-date decline, indicating a challenging market environment [41][41]. 3. Latest News and Policies - The report discusses the new medical insurance directory and its implications for innovation support, emphasizing the high success rate of new drug negotiations [2][18]. - It also covers the gradual easing of procurement rules for high-value medical consumables, indicating a potential for increased market access for domestic manufacturers [3][19]. 4. Recommended Combinations - The report lists various stock combinations, including a robust mix of companies across different segments, such as Sainuo Medical and Enhua Pharmaceutical, which are expected to perform well in the current market [5][20][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of December 1, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The A-share innovative drug sector experienced a decline of 3.03% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.81 percentage points. Over the past six months, the A-share innovative drug sector has increased by 49.68%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 16.27 percentage points [2][28]. - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector saw a slight increase of 0.09%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 1.33 percentage points. In the last six months, the Hong Kong innovative drug sector has risen by 60.26%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 20.58 percentage points [30]. - The XBI index in the US rose by 5.62% this week, with a cumulative increase of 4.74% over the past six months [3][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - A total of 50 stocks in the A-share and Hong Kong innovative drug sectors rose, while 18 stocks fell. The top three gainers were Yongtai Biological-B (+22.03%), Quansheng Biological-B (+18.28%), and Ailis-U (+14.43%). The top three losers were Beihai Kangcheng-B (-19.23%), Yiming Anke-B (-16.30%), and Kangning Jerey Pharmaceutical-B (-12.61%) [25]. - The A-share innovative drug sector's total market capitalization is approximately 50,522.13 billion yuan, with a TTM P/E ratio of 32.5, compared to the CSI 300's TTM P/E ratio of 12.5 [1]. 2. Domestic and International Drug Approvals - In November, five new drugs were approved for market entry in China, with no new approvals reported in the current week [4][51]. - In the US, nine NDA approvals were granted in November, with two additional NDA approvals this week. No new drugs were approved in Europe or Japan during this period [5][39][44][46]. 3. Key Transactions - There were 10 significant global transactions this week, with three notable deals disclosed. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals and Sarepta Therapeutics signed a deal worth 11,375 million USD, while Danone Pharmaceuticals and Yuan Da Life Sciences entered into a 107.42 million USD agreement [6]. 4. Drug Development Progress - The report highlights the progress of GLP-1 receptor agonists, with 11 drugs approved for diabetes indications globally, and three in NDA stages. Six are in Phase III clinical trials [12][18]. - The report also notes that domestic companies have made significant advancements in the development of GLP-1 receptor agonists, with several drugs in various stages of clinical trials [18]. 5. Sales Performance - The report details the sales performance of key drugs, noting that the sales of Tirzepatide (Mounjaro) reached 5.163 billion USD in 2023, a 970.1% increase, significantly outperforming Semaglutide's initial sales performance [23]. - The combined sales of Semaglutide products reached approximately 21.157 billion USD in 2023, with notable growth in both diabetes and weight loss indications [23]. 6. Clinical Trials - A total of 119 clinical trials were publicly announced this week in China, with 33 in Phase I, 41 in Phase II, and 38 in Phase III [41]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the pharmaceutical industry and its innovative drug sector.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a decrease in the overall public fund holding ratio in the pharmaceutical sector to 9.79%, down by 0.37 percentage points (pp) from the previous quarter [4][13]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector's market capitalization ratio is reported at 6.7%, reflecting an increase of 0.36pp [4][13]. - The top five pharmaceutical companies by public fund holdings are 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) with 573 funds, 迈瑞医疗 (Mindray) with 453 funds, 科伦药业 (Kelun Pharmaceutical) with 204 funds, 药明康德 (WuXi AppTec) with 190 funds, and 爱尔眼科 (Aier Eye Hospital) with 156 funds [5][36]. - The total market value of public fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector has seen significant increases, with 恒瑞医药 rising by 113.4 billion CNY and 药明康德 by 71 billion CNY [5][36]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - The overall public fund holding ratio for the pharmaceutical sector is 9.79%, a decrease of 0.37pp; excluding active pharmaceutical funds, the ratio is 6.62%, an increase of 0.12pp; and excluding index funds, the ratio is 5.57%, an increase of 0.62pp [4][13]. - The top five stocks by public fund holdings are 恒瑞医药 (373.7 billion CNY), 迈瑞医疗 (365.6 billion CNY), 药明康德 (193.6 billion CNY), 爱尔眼科 (124.7 billion CNY), and 泰格医药 (109.3 billion CNY) [5][36]. Sub-industry Holdings - In Q3 2024, the pharmaceutical sub-industry with the largest increase in public fund holdings is chemical preparations, which rose to 19.4%, an increase of 2.3pp; followed by medical research outsourcing at 8.7%, up by 2.2pp; and other biological products at 4%, up by 0.8pp [6][20]. - Conversely, the sub-industries with the largest decreases include traditional Chinese medicine at 5.1%, down by 2.2pp; medical devices at 5.2%, down by 1.2pp; and blood products at 0.7%, down by 0.6pp [6][20]. Foreign Investment - Foreign investment in the pharmaceutical sector has slightly increased, with foreign holdings accounting for 2.81% of the total market capitalization, up by 0.07pp, and the total market value held by foreign investors reaching 183.2 billion CNY, an increase of 30.5 billion CNY [10][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of December 1, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The A-share innovative drug sector experienced a decline of 3.03% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.81 percentage points. Over the past six months, the A-share innovative drug sector has increased by 49.68%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 16.27 percentage points [2][28]. - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector saw a slight increase of 0.09%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 1.33 percentage points. In the last six months, the Hong Kong innovative drug sector has risen by 60.26%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 20.58 percentage points [30]. - The XBI index in the US rose by 5.62% this week, with a cumulative increase of 4.74% over the past six months [3][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - A total of 50 stocks in the innovative drug sector in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rose, while 18 stocks fell. The top gainers were Yongtai Biological-B (+22.03%), Quansheng Biological-B (+18.28%), and Ailis-U (+14.43%). The largest declines were seen in Beihai Kangcheng-B (-19.23%), Yiming Anke-B (-16.30%), and Kangning Jere Pharmaceutical-B (-12.61%) [25]. - The overall market capitalization of the pharmaceutical industry is approximately 50,522.13 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 48,842.85 billion yuan. The industry’s TTM price-to-earnings ratio stands at 32.5, compared to 12.5 for the CSI 300 index [1]. 2. Drug Approvals and Developments - In November, five new drugs were approved for market entry in China, with no new approvals reported in the current week. Additionally, five new indications were approved in November [4][51]. - In the US, nine NDA approvals were granted in November, with two more NDA approvals in the current week. No new drugs were approved in Europe or Japan during this period [5][44][46]. 3. Global Transactions - There were 10 significant transactions globally this week, with three transactions disclosing amounts. Notable deals included Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals with Sarepta Therapeutics for 11,375 million USD, and Danone Pharmaceuticals with Yuanda Life Sciences for 107.42 million USD [6]. 4. Drug Development Progress - The report highlights the progress of GLP-1 receptor agonists, with 11 drugs approved for diabetes indications globally, and three in NDA stages. Six are in Phase III clinical trials [12][18]. - The report also notes that three GLP-1 related drugs for obesity have been approved, with one in NDA stage and six in Phase III clinical trials [12][18]. 5. Sales Performance - The report details significant sales figures for GLP-1 drugs, with sales of Tirzepatide (Mounjaro) reaching 5.163 billion USD in 2023, a 970.1% increase. Semaglutide (Ozempic) sales were reported at 13.889 billion USD, a 60% increase [23]. 6. Clinical Trials - A total of 119 clinical trials were publicly announced this week in China, including 33 in Phase I, 41 in Phase II, and 38 in Phase III [41]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the pharmaceutical industry and its innovative drug sector.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry as of December 1, 2024 [1]. Core Views - The automotive industry is experiencing a surge in vehicle replacement subsidies, with over 2 million applications received by November 18, 2024, indicating a rapid growth trend in subsidy applications [1]. - The retail market for narrow passenger vehicles is projected to reach approximately 2.4 million units in November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.4% and a month-on-month increase of 6.1% [1]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to reach about 53.3% in November, with retail sales of NEVs estimated at 1.287 million units, a year-on-year increase of 68% [1]. - The report highlights investment opportunities arising from increased vehicle replacement subsidies and the launch of new models, as well as the potential of Robotaxi and Huawei's entry into humanoid robotics [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The SW automotive sector index closed at 6312.9 points, up 0.3% for the week, while the CSI 300 index rose 1.3% [30]. - The passenger vehicle sector saw a decline of 0.9%, while commercial passenger vehicles increased by 0.5% [30]. 2. Industry News - Ping An Property & Casualty launched a dedicated insurance service for intelligent driving, covering various scenarios [54]. - Chery's joint venture factory in Spain commenced production, focusing on electric vehicle technology [54]. - Tesla China announced a limited-time discount for Model Y deliveries [56]. - Huawei officially entered the humanoid robotics sector, marking a significant expansion in its business [60]. 3. Sales Data - Major automotive companies reported their November sales figures, with BYD selling 50.7 thousand units, a year-on-year increase of 68.16% [61]. - The report includes detailed sales data for various manufacturers, indicating trends in both traditional and new energy vehicle sales [61]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from increased vehicle replacement subsidies and the new vehicle cycle, including GAC Group and BYD [1]. - It also recommends monitoring the impact of local scrappage policies on heavy truck sales [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the robotics industry, indicating expected returns above the market average over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The robotics index outperformed the market, with the CSI Robotics Index rising by 3.8%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.0 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 2.5 percentage points during the week of November 25 to December 1 [20]. - Tesla showcased its latest generation of the Optimus robot, demonstrating significant improvements in dexterity and fluidity, with the new dexterous hand featuring 22 degrees of freedom compared to 11 in the previous generation [29]. - Nanjing has issued an action plan for the high-quality development of the robotics industry from 2024 to 2026, aiming to position itself among the top cities in China for robotics development [30]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The robotics index outperformed major indices, with the CSI Robotics Index increasing by 3.8% and the National Robotics Index rising by 2.8% during the specified week [20]. Industry Dynamics - Tesla's Optimus robot demonstrated enhanced capabilities, including the ability to catch a tennis ball thrown from a distance, indicating advancements in both hardware and software for future applications [29]. - The Nanjing action plan aims to enhance the competitiveness of the robotics industry, focusing on creating a robust ecosystem for industrial robots and humanoid robots [30][32]. Financing Dynamics - UBTECH announced a plan to issue new H shares at a price of HKD 83.88 per share, raising approximately HKD 587 million, with the share price reflecting a discount of 19.96% compared to the previous closing price [39].

Domestic Economic Trends - The People's Bank of China conducted a 900 billion yuan medium-term lending facility operation, net draining 550 billion yuan, marking the fourth consecutive month of reduced operations, with a potential 50 basis points reserve requirement ratio cut expected by year-end[8] - In October, profits of industrial enterprises fell by 10.0% year-on-year, a significant narrowing of the decline by 17.1 percentage points compared to September, indicating a stabilization in production and sales[14] - The implementation of the "5G Scale Application Action Plan" aims for over 85% penetration of 5G users and 45% application penetration in large and medium-sized industrial enterprises by the end of 2027[11] International Economic Developments - Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, with tariffs likely to be implemented in a tiered manner, potentially impacting domestic exports negatively[23][27] - The nomination of Trump's Treasury Secretary candidate has eased market concerns regarding extreme tariff policies and debt crises, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index[22] Commodity Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.87% week-on-week, while iron ore prices increased by 2.02% during the same period[34] - The average price of residential real estate sales rose by 17.83% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in the housing market[34] Financial Sector Developments - A joint action plan by seven departments aims to promote the digital transformation of financial institutions, enhancing digital governance and service ecosystems[16][20] - The digital credit scale in China reached $626.7 billion, accounting for 78.8% of the global total, with the digital yuan pilot covering 17 provinces and cities[20]