证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 [行业Table_Industry] : 传媒 日期: shzqdatemark 2024年06月28日 | 分析师 : | 陈旻 | |--------------|------------------| | Tel: | 021-53686134 | | E-mail: | chenmin@shzq.com | | SAC 编号 : | S0870522020001 | 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -37% -32% -27% -21% -16% -11% -6% -1% 5% 06/23 09/23 11/23 02/24 04/24 06/24 传媒 沪深300 相关报告: 《周观点:Runway 推出视频生成模型 Gen-3 Alpha,Open-Sora 实现全新技术 升级》 ——2024 年 06 月 25 日 《周观点:GPT-4o 加持 Siri,复旦推出通 用智能体平台 AgentGym》 ——2024 年 06 月 17 日 《周观点:智谱推出 MaaS 开放平台 2.0, 快手版 Sora"可灵"开放测试》 ——2024 年 06 月 ...

周观点:苹果全面拥抱 AI,Anthropic 发布旗舰大模型 Claude 3.5 Sonnet ——先进科技主题周报 20240617-20240623 [行业Table_Industry] : 计算机 日期: shzqdatemark 2024年06月28日 分析师: 刘京昭 SAC 编号: S0870523040005 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -43% -37% -31% -25% -19% -13% -7% -1% 5% 06/23 09/23 11/23 02/24 04/24 06/24 计算机 沪深300 相关报告: 《鸿蒙+盘古构建系统级原生智能》 ——2024 年 06 月 25 日 《鸿蒙有望引领终端+AI 新变革》 ——2024 年 06 月 18 日 《端侧 AI 催化密集,关注 AI PC 进展》 ——2024 年 06 月 12 日 增持(维持) [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 【市场回顾】 ◆ 本周上证指数报收2998.14点,周涨跌幅为-1.14%;深证成指报 收9064.84点,周涨跌幅为-2.03%;创业板指报收1755.88点,周 涨跌幅为-1 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 行 业 周 报 | [ 行业 Table_Industry] : | 电力设备 | | |------------------------------|-----------------------------|----| | 日期 : | shzqdatemark 2024年06月27日 | | | 分析师 : | 丁亚 | | | Tel: | 021-53686149 | | | E-mail: | dingya@shzq.com | | | SAC 编号 : | S0870521110002 | | 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -39% -33% -28% -23% -17% -12% -6% -1% 5% 06-23 09-23 11-23 02-24 04-24 06-24 电力设备 沪深300 相关报告: | 《特高压第三次服务招标启动, | |-------------------------------------| | 属性凸显》 | | ——2024 年 | | 《政策护航新能源消纳,电力设备景气持 | | 续》 | | ——2024 年 | | 《 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Author] 分析师: 胡月晓 Tel: 021-53686171 E-mail: huyuexiao@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870510120021 分析师: 陈彦利 Tel: 021-53686170 E-mail: chenyanli@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870517070002 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《ESG 如何助力企业提升降本增值》 ——2024 年 06 月 21 日 《海外市场跟踪：美国通胀目标缺乏进 展》 ——2024 年 06 月 03 日 《海外市场跟踪：美国通胀仍具韧性，日 本经济再度走弱》 ——2024 年 05 月 23 日 2 宏 观 态 势 海外市场跟踪：通胀降至 2%，英国央行 不急于降息 2024年06月27日 [日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark [Table_Summary] 投资摘要 海外市场跟踪——（6.17-6.21）海外股市除日本股市外均有所上涨； 海外国债收益率除德国国债外均有所回升；美元指数有所回升，美元 兑除澳元外均有所升值； ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [6] Core Insights - The 2024 mid-term report on the Chinese liquor market was released, showing a 6% year-on-year increase in production and a 13.8% increase in sales revenue for large-scale liquor enterprises in Q1 2024 [6][45] - Moutai, Wuliangye, and Qingdao Beer ranked as the top three most valuable brands in the food and beverage sector according to the 2024 "China's 500 Most Valuable Brands" list [6][45] - JD's 618 sales event saw a 30% increase in self-operated liquor sales, indicating strong consumer demand [6][45] - The ice drink market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected 39% increase in instant retail channels over the next three years [9][49] Summary by Sections Liquor - The top six liquor brands by sales volume in H1 2024 are Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Jian Nan Chun [6][45] - The overall revenue growth rate for the A-share liquor sector reached 16% and 15% [6][45] - Moutai and Wuliangye were recognized as the most valuable brands, with brand values of 451.33 billion and 449.87 billion RMB respectively [6][45] Beer - The summer season has seen a surge in beer consumption, with a 50% increase in sales driven by sports events and nightlife [8][48] - New product launches, such as Asahi's "Future Lemon Sour," have gained popularity, indicating a positive trend in the beer market [8][48] Soft Drinks - The introduction of "Ice Cup" by Nongfu Spring has quickly gained traction among young consumers, with significant growth expected in the ice drink market [9][49] - The market for ice drinks is projected to exceed 63 billion RMB by 2026, with a fourfold increase in sales [9][49] Frozen Foods - New revenue targets for companies like Xinliuwu aim for 2 billion RMB in 2024, with significant investments in production capacity [9][49] - The expansion of production facilities is expected to enhance the overall market position of frozen food companies [9][49] Seasoning - Chubang has been recognized again in the "China's 500 Most Valuable Brands" list, with a brand value increase of 5.5 billion RMB [10][50] - The company is focusing on health and taste, aiming to enhance consumer dining experiences [10][50] Frozen Bakery - The launch of new bakery products by Aokun is expected to meet the growing demand for diverse dining options [10][50] - The bakery sector is experiencing a growth rate of 22.1%, indicating strong market potential [10][50] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-demand liquor brands such as Luzhou Laojiao and Jiuziyuan, and beer companies like Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer for potential growth [12][51] - In the soft drink sector, companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Bai Run are recommended for their stable expansion strategies [12][51] - For frozen foods, companies like Anji Food and Qianwei Central Kitchen are highlighted for their growth potential [12][51]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [12][42]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the rising sales of OLEDs, the commencement of high-generation line construction, accelerated domestic material substitution, and increased demand for maintenance and upgrades of 6th generation AMOLED production lines. Revenue from materials and equipment is anticipated to continue increasing [12][50]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 730.20 million, 1,050.41 million, and 1,516.08 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 41.16%, 43.85%, and 44.33% [8][10]. - The overall gross margin is expected to be 57.99%, 60.17%, and 61.23% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [10][12]. Business Segments Analysis 1. **Equipment Business** - Revenue growth rates for the equipment segment are forecasted at 5.96%, 20.82%, and 106.13% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with gross margins of 66.00%, 65.60%, and 65.00% [5][11]. 2. **Materials Business** - The materials segment, which includes organic light-emitting materials and packaging materials, is expected to see revenue growth rates of 63.29%, 53.25%, and 24.54% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with gross margins of 54.73%, 58.43%, and 59.24% [6][11]. 3. **Other Businesses** - Other business revenues are projected to grow by 4.50%, 16.67%, and 14.29% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, maintaining a stable gross margin of 60.00% across these years [7][11]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has successfully broken the foreign monopoly in the production of 6th generation AMOLED linear evaporation sources and is actively developing high-generation evaporation source technologies [50][27]. - As of March 2023, the company held approximately 66% market share in domestic 6th generation AMOLED production lines [21]. Financial Metrics - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 207 million, 285 million, and 430 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 17, and 11, respectively [12][13]. Industry Outlook - The OLED market is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by increasing penetration rates in smartphones and the demand for flexible displays, with the penetration rate expected to rise from 48% in 2023 to 55% in 2024 [61][62].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [5][8]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for the engineering machinery sector, with a forecasted growth in excavator sales, particularly in the domestic market, which is expected to see a year-on-year increase of nearly 20% [6][7]. - The humanoid robot industry is progressing rapidly, with significant developments in technology and strategic partnerships, indicating a potential commercialization milestone in 2024 [7][66]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In the week of June 17-21, 2024, the CITIC mechanical industry index fell by 1.34%, ranking 12th among all primary industries. The engineering machinery sector saw a rise of 1.10%, while general equipment and metal products declined by 2.50% and 5.00%, respectively [29][31]. Engineering Machinery - CME estimates that excavator sales (including exports) will reach around 16,000 units in June 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 1.5%. The domestic market is expected to sell about 7,300 units, marking a nearly 20% increase year-on-year [6]. - The report indicates that the engineering machinery industry is at a cyclical low point but may soon enter an upward phase due to favorable policies and recovering domestic demand [6][7]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing significant advancements, with the launch of a humanoid robot equipped with Huawei's AI model, showcasing improved capabilities in various applications [7][66]. - The report suggests that 2024 will be a pivotal year for the commercialization of humanoid robots, with a focus on establishing supply chains and product specifications [7][66]. High-Frequency Data Tracking - In May 2024, the manufacturing PMI was recorded at 49.5%, with fixed asset investment in manufacturing showing a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [35]. - Excavator sales in May reached 18,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.0% [39]. Industry News and Announcements - The report notes that China's engineering machinery import and export trade increased by 2.45% year-on-year in May 2024, with exports growing by 3.29% [66][67]. - Strategic partnerships in the humanoid robot sector are being formed to enhance technology development and market presence [66][68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The optical module sector is experiencing high demand, driven by North American companies' guidance for 800G optical module needs in 2025, which is expected to significantly increase compared to 2024. This demand is primarily for AI inference and training integration [6][20]. - The report highlights the tight supply of upstream raw materials, suggesting investment opportunities in silicon photonics and domestic alternatives. Companies with upstream supplier resources may increase profit margins by raising prices [7][21]. - The integration of satellite networks is becoming a major trend in the communication industry, with 60% of global operators signing agreements to serve 5 billion mobile users [8][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - In the past week (June 17-23, 2024), the communication sector outperformed with a 1.58% increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index decreased by -1.14% and -2.03%, respectively [5][16]. - The top five gainers in the communication sector included Cheng Tian Wei Ye (up 24.66%) and ST Peng Bo (up 23.77%), while the biggest losers included Tong Yu Tong Xin (down 26.02%) and Jiu Sheng Dian Qi (down 19.48%) [5][18]. 2. Industry Core Views - The optical module sector is expected to maintain high growth due to strong downstream demand, particularly from AI applications. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the speed of product advancements in the downstream sector [6][20]. - The report suggests that the self-developed AI chips by major tech companies will drive demand for high-speed network bandwidth, further boosting the expectations for 800G optical modules [6][20]. 3. Industry News - The report notes that 91 telecom operators globally have signed agreements with satellite companies, providing low Earth orbit (LEO) coverage for 5 billion mobile users, indicating a significant shift towards satellite network integration [9][24]. - Huawei's Ascend AI cloud service is highlighted for its capabilities in supporting large model innovations, significantly reducing downtime and resource provisioning times for AI model training [10][25].

Economic Outlook - The market consensus indicates a stable and warming economic outlook for China, with median and average growth expectations for consumption and investment improving compared to May 2024 data[3] - Industrial production and trade show mixed results, suggesting a cautious but optimistic view on economic performance[3] Inflation Trends - CPI forecast for June 2024 is expected to range from -0.3% to 0.8%, with both median and average predictions at 0.4%, indicating a consensus on stable but gradually rising consumer prices[4] - PPI is expected to continue its slow decline, influenced by base effects, but does not indicate a definitive inflationary trend[4] Monetary Policy Expectations - The prevailing expectation is for continued monetary policy easing, with a potential 5 basis point cut in repo rates and a 25 basis point reserve requirement ratio reduction likely in the first half of 2024[5] - The low inflation environment provides room for sustained monetary easing, supporting the notion of a stable monetary growth outlook[5] Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and its escalation are altering the international financial landscape, potentially impacting China's economic conditions[6][25] - Increased geopolitical tensions may lead to unexpected changes in China's monetary policy due to rising inflation and economic uncertainties[19]

Consumption and Savings - Social retail sales growth remains low, with a marginal improvement in month-on-month performance observed[5] - Cumulative year-on-year growth in social retail sales continues to decline, with a potential stabilization noted in May[7] - The growth rate of household income and savings deposits is converging, indicating a cautious consumer sentiment[6] Government and Large Consumption - Government consumption accounted for 30% of final consumption expenditure in 2022, with a corresponding decline in growth rate noted[9] - Large consumption categories, such as automobiles (28% share) and textiles/apparel (8% share), have seen significant year-on-year growth declines in 2024[28] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth rebounded in the first quarter but has since declined, with real estate investment continuing to show a widening decline[13] - Manufacturing investment has significantly improved, with most sub-sectors showing positive year-on-year growth[32] Trade and Economic Outlook - The trade surplus has remained stable, with improvements in goods trade noted, while service trade deficits have expanded close to pre-pandemic levels[61] - China's GDP growth in Q1 2024 was 5.3%, supported by external trade, with net exports contributing positively to growth[86]