证 券 研 究 报 告 通信 ETF 基金价值点评 [日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark 2024年11月18日 [Table_Author] 分析师: 王红兵 E-mail: Wanghongbing@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870523060002 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《半导体材料设备 ETF 价值点评》 ——2024 年 11 月 14 日 《汽车 ETF 的可投性评估》 ——2024 年 09 月 26 日 《红利类 ETF 模型半年样本外极低回撤》 ——2024 年 09 月 12 日 [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 通信ETF基金（159511）2024年11 月13日上涨3.86%，中际旭 创、新易盛及移动、电信和联通解释了65.66%的当日涨幅。中际旭创 和新易盛同属光模块，股价特征相似；移动、电信和联通均为运营 商，股价特征也相似。 从中际旭创来看，11月13日收盘价略高于19倍PE下2025年基本 面价值，19倍PE为2023年行情启动前的底部估值，目前一致预期 2025年归母净利润高增61.6%，我们认 ...

Inflation Data - October CPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, matching market expectations and up from 2.4% previously[1] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, consistent with market expectations and previous values[1] - Seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations and prior results[1] Price Trends - Energy prices remained stable, with a month-on-month change from -1.9% to 0.0%[2] - Food price growth slowed, with a month-on-month decrease from +0.4% to +0.2%[2] - Core goods prices fell to 0.0% month-on-month, with significant increases in used car and truck prices from +0.3% to +2.7%[3] Housing and Services - Core services inflation remained stable, with rent prices rebounding; rent increased from +0.2% to +0.4% month-on-month[3] - Major residence rent growth remained steady at +0.3% month-on-month[3] - Medical services prices decreased from +0.7% to +0.4% month-on-month, while entertainment services saw a positive shift from -0.5% to +0.7%[3] Interest Rate Expectations - December rate cut expectations rose to 82% probability for a 25 basis points cut following the inflation data release[4] - Short-term 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are expected to remain high, with long-term uncertainty regarding the Fed's rate cut path and potential inflationary pressures from policy changes[4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6][12]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant growth in AI applications in North America, with companies like AppLovin and Meta showing impressive revenue increases due to AI integration [4]. - The domestic and international progress in AI Agent development is noted, with companies like OpenAI and Baidu making substantial advancements in AI capabilities and applications [5]. - The report suggests a focus on AI computing and application sectors for investment opportunities, recommending specific companies within these categories [6]. Market Review - In the past week (November 11-15), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.52%, the ChiNext Index by 3.36%, and the CSI 300 Index by 3.29%. The computer sector (Shenwan) index decreased by 3.41%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 0.11 percentage points but underperforming the ChiNext and CSI 300 indices by 0.05 and 0.12 percentage points, respectively, ranking 13th among all sectors [3]. Weekly Insights - Notable overseas AI application performance includes AppLovin's Q3 revenue growth of 39% and a net profit increase of 300%, driven by their AI advertising engine [4]. - Baidu's Wenxin large model has seen a daily call volume exceeding 1.5 billion, a 7.5-fold increase from May, indicating strong growth in AI applications across various industries [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI computing companies such as Haiguang Information, Cambrian, and Zhongke Shuguang, as well as AI application firms like iFlytek and Kingsoft Office for potential investment opportunities [6].

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 大厂接连推出智能眼镜，光刻机龙头 ASML 积极展望芯片未来 ——电子行业周报（2024.11.11-2024.11.15） [行业Table_Industry] : 电子 日期: shzqdatemark 2024年11月18日 [Table_Author] 分析师: 王红兵 SAC 编号: S0870523060002 [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -31% -24% -17% -10% -3% 4% 11% 19% 26% 11/23 01/24 04/24 06/24 09/24 11/24 电子 沪深300 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《周观点：海外大厂发布 Q3 财报，AI+云 业务增长强劲》 ——2024 年 11 月 13 日 《三季度全球平板&智能手机出货情况良 好，AI 驱动存储板块持续上行》 ——2024 年 11 月 11 日 《周观点：光模块厂商 Q3 业绩增长强劲， AI 驱动 PCB 创新发展》 ——2024 年 11 月 07 日 [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） ...

Economic Performance - In October, the industrial added value grew by 5.3% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.4% in September[11] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 423,222 million yuan from January to October, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%[12] - Social retail sales totaled 45,396 million yuan in October, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[12] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment has seen its growth rate accelerate for the first time since April, supported by the issuance of long-term government bonds and special local government bonds[22] - Manufacturing investment has shown a steady recovery, contributing to the overall fixed asset investment growth[22] - Real estate investment declined by 10.3% year-on-year from January to October, with a slight increase in the sales area decline[25] Consumption Insights - Urban retail sales grew by 4.7% year-on-year, while rural retail sales increased by 4.9%, indicating a stronger urban consumption recovery[29] - The implementation of "two new" policies and factors like the National Day holiday and e-commerce promotions have significantly boosted consumption in October[33] Policy Impact - Recent policies have strengthened counter-cyclical adjustments, promoting growth and stabilizing the real estate market[38] - The combination of existing and new policies is expected to support sustained growth in infrastructure investment and improve real estate investment, reducing the drag on fixed asset investment[38] Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in the international financial landscape, and unexpected shifts in China-US policies[39]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In October 2024, new social financing (社融) amounted to 1.40 trillion yuan, which is 448.3 billion yuan less than the previous year[3] - New RMB loans added 500 billion yuan, down 238.4 billion yuan year-on-year[3] - M1 growth rate improved to -6.1% from -7.4% in the previous month, while M2 growth rate increased to 7.5% from 6.8%[3] Group 2: Loan and Financing Structure - RMB loans increased by 298.8 billion yuan in October, a decrease of 184.9 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak domestic demand[5] - Foreign currency loans decreased by 71 billion yuan, marking a continuous decline for seven months, with a year-on-year reduction of 86.2 billion yuan[5] - Trust loans added 17.2 billion yuan, down 22.1 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate bonds saw an addition of 101.5 billion yuan, down 16.3 billion yuan year-on-year[5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - M1 growth recovery is attributed to increased fiscal spending and improved real estate sales, leading to a shift of household deposits to corporate demand deposits[7] - M2 growth rebound is supported by accelerated fiscal spending and a return of funds from the bond market and wealth management products to deposits[7] - The approval of an additional 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits may boost government bond financing and social financing growth in the coming years[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [2] Core Insights - The social retail sales in October increased by 4.8%, reaching 45,396 billion yuan, with a month-on-month acceleration of 1.6 percentage points [2][23] - JD Supermarket reported a 45% increase in liquor sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with specific categories like aged white liquor and single malt whisky seeing significant growth [2][23] - Moutai's management shared its ecological value transformation path at the UN Climate Change Conference, committing 1.5% of annual revenue to environmental protection [2][23] - Luzhou Laojiao was recognized for its best practices in corporate governance by the China Association for Public Companies [2][23] - Wuliangye showcased its products at the 2024 Fortune Global Forum in New York, emphasizing its diverse product range [2][23] Summary by Sections Alcoholic Beverages - The report highlights the structural opportunities in the high-end and real estate liquor segments, suggesting a focus on companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiansu Yuer [12][34] - The upgraded product lines of Jiangxiang Langjiu include aged bases with significant proportions of long-stored liquor [25][34] Beer - Carlsberg and Qingdao Beer reported strong online sales during the Double Eleven event, with Qingdao Beer leading in sales across multiple platforms [27][34] Soft Drinks - Xiangpiaopiao expects to maintain revenue growth despite market pressures, focusing on product innovation and channel expansion [30][34] Frozen Foods - The report notes a significant growth in the "mixed grain staple" category, with companies like Anjins and Sanquan entering the market [30][34] Seasoning Products - Fuling Mustard's restaurant division achieved over 100 million yuan in sales, indicating a new growth area for the company [31][34] Snack Foods - Three Squirrels is investing heavily in offline markets, aiming to expand its presence in the bulk snack sector [26][34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6][12]. Core Viewpoints - The recent issuance of the "Notice" by the National Medical Insurance Administration and the Ministry of Finance aims to improve the management of prepaid medical insurance funds, alleviating the financial pressure on designated medical institutions and promoting the coordinated development of medical services, insurance, and pharmaceuticals [3][5]. - The prepaid medical insurance fund system is expected to enhance operational efficiency within the industry, effectively easing the financial burden on medical institutions [5][6]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, Jiuzhoutong, and Yaoyigou due to the positive implications of the new policy [6]. Summary by Sections Policy and Regulatory Developments - The "Notice" outlines requirements for the management of prepaid funds, emphasizing the need for clear policies, application processes, accounting standards, and supervision [4]. - It specifies that prepaid funds should not be used for non-medical expenses and sets conditions for the allocation of these funds based on the financial health of the medical insurance fund [4]. Financial Insights - In 2023, 63% of the coordinated regions allocated a total of 88.1 billion yuan in prepaid funds to designated medical institutions [5]. - From January to September 2024, the basic medical insurance fund expenditure reached 1.76 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, which is 5.7 percentage points higher than the GDP growth during the same period [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the new prepaid fund policy is likely to optimize payment cycles for pharmaceutical companies and alleviate cash flow issues for medical institutions, thereby promoting stable operations across the healthcare ecosystem [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" indicating a positive outlook for the industry relative to the benchmark index [3][15]. Core Insights - The beauty care industry has shown strong growth during the recent Double Eleven shopping festival, with total sales across e-commerce platforms reaching 1,441.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%. The personal care and beauty segment alone accounted for 96.3 billion yuan, growing by 22.5% year-on-year [3][4]. - Major domestic brands and international players performed well, with Tmall reporting 79 brands exceeding 100 million yuan in sales during the Double Eleven period. Notably, domestic brands like Proya and international brands like L'Oréal and Lancôme dominated the sales rankings [4][5]. - The report highlights the increasing penetration of medical beauty products, with companies like Cofoe and Aesthetic Fill gaining traction in the market. The overall trend indicates a shift towards higher demand for medical beauty solutions [9]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - Comprehensive e-commerce platforms and live-streaming e-commerce platforms saw significant sales growth, with Tmall leading the sales chart. Tmall's sales reached 1,109.3 billion yuan, up 20.1% year-on-year, while live-streaming e-commerce sales hit 332.5 billion yuan, growing by 54.6% [3][4]. Brand Performance - Proya's sales on Tmall increased by over 10%, while Douyin's sales surged by over 60%. Other brands like Colorful and Off & Relax also reported substantial growth across various platforms [5][6]. - Cofoe's online sales grew by over 80%, with significant contributions from Tmall and Douyin. The brand's expansion into physical retail locations in Hong Kong and other cities is also noted [6][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic brands such as Proya and Han Shu, as well as companies in the medical beauty sector like Cofoe and Aesthetic Fill, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The light industry sector is expected to improve due to favorable policies stimulating real estate recovery and the effectiveness of the old-for-new policy, leading to increased consumer enthusiasm [1] - The home furnishing sector has seen significant sales growth driven by the old-for-new policy, with retail sales of furniture increasing by 7.4% year-on-year in October [1] - The paper and packaging industry is entering a peak season, with paper companies raising prices, indicating potential profit growth in the fourth quarter [1] - The textile and apparel sector is experiencing a weak recovery in consumer sentiment, with outdoor economy boosting sales of sportswear [4][5] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is rapidly growing, with significant contributions from platforms like TikTok Shop, indicating a strong export potential for Chinese goods [7][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Light Industry - The light industry is benefiting from policies that enhance consumer confidence and stimulate demand, particularly in home furnishings [1] - Retail sales of furniture and home appliances have shown positive growth, with significant increases noted in October [1] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is seeing a recovery in retail sales, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% in the first ten months of 2024 [6] - The outdoor sportswear market is thriving, with notable sales growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival [5] Cross-Border E-commerce - The cross-border e-commerce market is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in transaction volumes on platforms like TikTok Shop [7][8] - The export of goods is expected to remain robust, supported by favorable logistics and increased demand during peak shopping seasons [8]