Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights a 9.93% increase in wholesale prices for liquor in early December, with premium liquor prices rising by 12.56% [2] - It emphasizes the ecological transformation of the liquor industry in Renhuai, which has improved overall industry efficiency [2] - The report notes that Guizhou Moutai has been recognized as a "China ESG Model Enterprise" [2] - It discusses the strategic market plans for Guizhou Moutai's health liquor division for 2025 [2] - The report mentions the establishment of a joint venture by Dongpeng Beverage in Indonesia to expand its overseas market [23] - It highlights the continuous innovation and sales success of Qianwei's "fish-shaped eight-treasure rice" product [25] - The report indicates that Haitian Flavoring plans to list in Hong Kong to enhance its global strategy [26] - It presents insights into the booming baking market, projecting a retail market size of 611.07 billion yuan in 2024 [27] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on structural opportunities in the liquor sector, particularly high-end and regional wines [28] - It recommends monitoring beer companies like Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer for product upgrades and channel expansion [28] - The report advises on soft drink companies like Dongpeng Beverage for steady national expansion [28] - It highlights the potential for frozen food companies like Anjiyuan and Qianwei in the catering market [28] - It emphasizes the growth potential in the baking sector with companies like Lihai Food and Nanjiao Food [28] - It points out opportunities in the snack sector with companies like Yanjinpuzi and Qiaoqiao Food [28] 2. Market Performance Review - The SW Food and Beverage Index rose by 2.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.02 percentage points [34] - The report notes that the processed food sector saw a significant increase of 12.03% [34] 3. Key Industry Data Tracking - The report provides data on liquor production, noting a 12.10% year-on-year decline in production for October 2024 [47] - It mentions that the average price for high-end liquor in major cities is approximately 1218.13 yuan per 500ml bottle [47] - It tracks beer production, reporting a 2.30% decrease in production for October 2024 [50]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][12]. Core Insights - The recent approval of Qilu Pharmaceutical's Apalutamide tablets marks it as the first generic in China, which is expected to enhance the domestic treatment landscape for prostate cancer [3][6]. - Prostate cancer is the most common malignant tumor in the male urinary and reproductive system, with a global incidence that continues to rise. The number of prostate cancer patients in China is projected to reach 1.08 million by 2025, up from 440,000 in 2020, reflecting an annual growth rate exceeding 25% [4][5]. - The global prostate cancer treatment market is valued at $11.7 billion in 2023, with an expected CAGR of 8.8% from 2024 to 2032 [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Prostate cancer has a significant age distribution, with 80% of cases occurring in men over 65 years old. Early screening and diagnosis are crucial due to the slow progression of the disease [4]. Market Dynamics - Apalutamide has shown significant efficacy in treating non-metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, improving median progression-free survival compared to placebo [4]. - In 2023, Apalutamide sales in China reached 760 million yuan, with a growth rate of 15.61% in the first half of 2024, positioning it among the top 9 endocrine therapy products [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Kelun Pharmaceutical, Yuandong Biological, and Aorite, as the rising incidence of prostate cancer and the approval of Apalutamide are expected to create substantial market opportunities [6].

Economic Outlook - The main goal of economic and social development for 2024 is expected to be achieved smoothly, despite facing challenges[6] - The phrase "extraordinary" has been removed, indicating a commitment to stable policy[7] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is set to become more proactive, with an expected increase in the deficit ratio to over 3.5% in 2025 and special government bonds issuance rising to between 1.5 to 2 trillion yuan[8] - Local government debt risk mitigation was not mentioned in the 2024 meeting, suggesting improved conditions[8] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is shifting to a moderately loose stance, with expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[9] - The meeting emphasized maintaining basic stability of the exchange rate, despite discussions of potential depreciation in response to U.S. tariffs[9] Consumer Spending - The focus on boosting consumption has shifted from expanding the middle-income group to increasing income and reducing burdens for low- and middle-income groups[10] - Measures include raising basic pensions and expanding the scope of trade-in programs for consumer goods[10] Investment and Infrastructure - Increased support for "two重" projects and early planning for "十五五" major projects are expected to enhance infrastructure investment growth[12] - The construction of Hainan Free Trade Port is accelerating, with expectations for closure in 2025[13] Real Estate Risks - New changes in real estate risk management include stabilizing prices and addressing existing housing stock, with a focus on meeting demand[14] Artificial Intelligence - The emphasis on artificial intelligence as a key sector for enhancing new productivity has been highlighted, with initiatives to promote "AI+" across various industries[15]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The December meeting expressed greater confidence in achieving the annual economic goals compared to the September meeting, which acknowledged new challenges in economic operations[3] - The macro policy language has become more positive, indicating a potential increase in policy strength, especially with the term "extraordinary" suggesting significant future measures[4] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The shift in monetary policy language from "prudent" to "moderately loose" is notable, with the last use of "moderately loose" dating back to November 2008, suggesting potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[5] - Fiscal policy is expected to become more aggressive, with a possibility of the 2025 deficit target exceeding 3%[5] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The focus on expanding domestic demand has intensified, with a commitment to "comprehensively expand domestic demand," indicating a stronger push for consumption compared to previous meetings[6] - There is an expectation for significant policy space to boost consumption, reflecting a shift from previous meetings that did not emphasize these areas[6] Group 4: Market Stability - The December meeting explicitly mentioned stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, continuing the emphasis on these sectors since September, which may lead to new supportive policies[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry for 2025 [1] Core Views - The global innovative drug and device sector is sensitive to the interest rate environment, with the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to improve the financing environment for innovative drugs and devices, leading to increased orders in the CXO sector [2] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index has underperformed as of November 2024, with the A-share SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index PE (TTM) at approximately 33 times, which is still below the average valuation over the past decade [2] - Key focus areas include: 1) Innovative drugs supported by strong national policies and improved payment mechanisms; 2) CXO sector benefiting from the elimination of negative impacts from the Biological Safety Act and increased demand during the rate-cutting cycle; 3) Transition from generic to innovative drugs; 4) Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) with strong policy support; 5) Medical devices with ongoing equipment updates and innovations [2] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The pharmaceutical sector is poised for growth, with some high-performance and innovation-driven stocks showing significant gains [6] - From January to November 2024, the A-share SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index fell by 9.29%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 23.43 percentage points [7] - The chemical drug sector saw the highest increase at 2.93%, while the biological products sector experienced the largest decline at 22.31% [7] Valuation - As of November 2024, the A-share SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index PE (TTM) is approximately 33 times, indicating potential for valuation recovery [13] Innovative Drugs - The Chinese government has implemented comprehensive support policies for innovative drug development, enhancing the commercial viability and research capabilities of domestic companies [20][23] - The 2024 National Medical Insurance Drug List has been officially implemented, adding 91 new drugs, with an average price reduction of 63%, expected to reduce patient costs by over 50 billion yuan in 2025 [23] - The number of license-out transactions for Chinese innovative drugs has reached a new high, with 111 transactions reported by December 9, 2024, totaling $46.644 billion, indicating global market recognition [28] Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - Continuous favorable policies are being introduced to promote the high-quality development of the TCM industry, with significant R&D investments from leading companies [34][38] - In the first half of 2024, six new TCM drugs were approved, marking a historical high for the same period [41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [7][45]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the OPEC+ has extended its voluntary production cuts until March 2025, which may impact the supply dynamics in the chemical industry [6]. - The basic chemical index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.39 percentage points over the past week, indicating a positive market trend for the sector [4][27]. Market Trends - The basic chemical index increased by 2.83% from December 2 to December 8, while the CSI 300 index rose by 1.44% [4][27]. - The top-performing sub-industries included viscose (10.08%), nitrogen fertilizer (8.47%), carbon black (5.81%), nylon (4.90%), and synthetic resin (4.77%) [4][27]. Chemical Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were hydrochloric acid (10.95%), R134a (9.09%), potassium chloride (7.14%), DMF (6.71%), and R32 (5.00%) [5][34]. - The products with the largest weekly price declines included SBS (-8.63%), niacinamide (-6.00%), octanol (-3.33%), diethanolamine (-3.24%), and concentrated nitric acid (-3.13%) [5][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors: 1. Refrigerants, with a recommendation to pay attention to Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. 2. Chemical fibers, with a focus on Huafeng Chemical, New Fengming, and Taihe New Materials. 3. Quality stocks such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy. 4. Tire sector, recommending SAILUN, Senqilin, and Linglong Tire. 5. Agricultural chemicals, with a focus on Yaji International, Salt Lake Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, and Yangnong Chemical. 6. Quality growth stocks like Blue Sky Technology, Shengquan Group, and Shandong Heda [7][45].

Export Performance - In November 2024, China's total goods trade value reached 3.75 trillion RMB, with exports at 2.22 trillion RMB, reflecting a growth of 5.8%[36] - Exports to developed countries showed a decline, particularly a significant drop in exports to the EU[42] - Major labor-intensive goods, except toys, experienced a decline, with automotive exports turning negative[44] Import Trends - Imports fell by 4.7% in November, totaling 1.53 trillion RMB, with a notable drop in most major import categories except for automobiles and crude oil[36] - The growth rate of mechanical and electrical imports turned negative, contributing to the overall decline in imports[48] Trade Surplus - The trade surplus in November reached 974.43 billion USD, marking the second-highest level of the year, compared to 957.19 billion USD in October and 690.65 billion USD in the same month last year[51] Economic Outlook - Despite the decline in exports, the overall export performance for the year remains strong, supported by a soft exchange rate and China's manufacturing advantages[55] - Domestic policies are expected to implement proactive macroeconomic measures to boost consumption and investment, aiming to expand domestic demand[57] Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery industry [4]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery market is showing continuous improvement, with various players entering the humanoid robot sector, which is expected to accelerate industry development [5][6]. - Recent economic policies are anticipated to boost demand in the real estate sector and improve infrastructure investment, contributing to a sustained recovery in domestic engineering machinery demand [5]. - The semiconductor industry faces increasing restrictions from overseas, emphasizing the need for domestic self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain [7][9]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The machinery sector rose by 3.95% in the week of December 2-6, 2024, ranking 12th among all primary industries [20][22]. - Specific segments showed varied performance: general equipment increased by 6.38%, while engineering machinery saw a modest rise of 0.27% [22]. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - In November 2024, the average working hours for major engineering machinery products were 96.7 hours, up 8.79% month-on-month, with a utilization rate of 68.6%, increasing by 5.46% [5]. - Excavator sales reached 17,590 units in November, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, with domestic sales at 9,020 units, up 20.5% [5][31]. Automation Equipment - In October 2024, industrial robot production was 51,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53.9% [41]. - The production of elevators and escalators was 113,000 units, down 2.6% year-on-year [41]. Semiconductor Equipment - Global semiconductor sales in October 2024 were $56.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.1% [49]. - China's semiconductor sales reached $16.20 billion, up 17.1% year-on-year [49]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in engineering machinery include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and XCMG [10]. - In humanoid robotics, focus on high-tech segments with low domestic production rates, such as components and sensors [10].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with urban areas rising by 0.1% and rural areas by 0.2%[11] - Food prices rose by 1.0%, while non-food prices remained flat; consumer goods prices were stable, and service prices increased by 0.4%[11] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3%, indicating weak demand[14] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[13] - Month-on-month, the PPI shifted from a decrease of 0.1% to an increase of 0.1%[25] - Key industries such as petroleum extraction and processing saw a reduction in price declines, while black metal smelting and coal mining experienced expanded declines[28] Group 3: Economic Implications - The stable inflation environment allows for more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies to support economic recovery[4] - The overall price stability is expected to create a favorable outlook for consumer goods prices in the near future[38] - Industrial product prices continue to show a shrinking trend, indicating ongoing economic challenges[38] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in Chinese monetary policy[5]

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 OpenAI 密集发布新品，AI 应用持续落 地 ————计算机行业周报（2024.12.02—2024.12.06） [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 市场回顾 [行业Table_Industry] : 计算机 日期: shzqdatemark 2024年12月10日 [Table_Author] 分析师: 吴婷婷 Tel: 021-53686158 E-mail: wutingting@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870523080001 过 去 一 周 （12.02-12.06） 上 证 综 指 上 涨 2.33%， 创 业 板 指 上 涨 1.94%，沪深300指数上涨1.44%，计算机（申万）指数上涨2.46%， 跑赢上证综指 0.13 个百分点，跑赢创业板指 0.52 个百分点，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.02 个百分点，位列全行业第 16 名。 ◼ 周观点 OpenAI 宣布 12 天连开 12 场直播，将发布系列新品。OpenAI 首席执 行官 Sam Altman 宣布从 12 月 5 日开始为期 ...