东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|--------------------|--------------------------------|----------| | 分析师推荐 | 股港股市场 \nA | 2024 | 年 6 月 28 | 日星期五 | | 【东兴食饮】食品饮料行业：茅台稳定批价组合拳出击，将稳定市场预期 | 指数名称 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 % | | （ 20240625） | 上证指数 | | 2,967.4 | 0.73 | | 茅台近期一系列组合拳出击，意在稳定市场预期，扭转批价不断下行的趋势。 | 深证成指 | | 8,848.7 | -0.01 | | 随着茅台政策不断落地，飞天茅台批价与市场需求或将进入新的平衡。 | 创业板 | | 1,683.43 | -1.16 | | 据媒体报 ...

大家好 欢迎参加东兴证券2024年7月金股电网会议目前所有参会者均处于静音状态现在开始播报免责声明 本次会议请面向受邀的东兴证券研究所的白名单客户会议中嘉宾的发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表示的意见并不构成对具体证券在具体站位具体时点具体市场表现的判断或投资建议研究人员的发言内容仅代表当日的判断具体请看见完整版的研究报告 照监管要求和保密原则任何机构或个人严禁对本次会议内容录音制作纪要转发转载传播复制编辑修改等涉嫌违反上述请请的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 莫老师 我现在就打点了就可以直接发言了我们是隔壁在开整个东方机场的那个党会可能声音会有点大 各位投资者好我是中芯证券能源研究员莫文娟我这次是继续推荐中国海油那中国海油也分继续推荐中国的中国海油港股600938以及它的A股600938以及它的港股中国海油中国海洋石油嗯嗯 推荐的逻辑一个是它是石油产业链的独立上游公司是中国最大的海上油气生产运营商那同时在这个资本密集行业油气行业当前局势的话我们是维持国际油价是维持汇油高价保持这个高油价驱动 那还有它汕游资本开支在不断的提升汕游公司会受益于原油价格上涨以及油气行业景区度有望持续提升我们继续推 ...

参考报告：《建材行业：双重发力加快水泥落后产能淘汰，等待新平衡》，2024-06-20 DONGXING SECURITIES 建筑建材：双重发力加快水泥落后产能淘汰，等待新平衡 首 席 观 点 首席周观点：2024 年第 26 周2024 年 6 月 28 日 首席观点 周度观点 相关政策持续推动水泥落后产能淘汰，优化水泥供给端。工业和信息化部组织制定的 GB175-2023《通用硅酸盐水泥》国家强制标准在 2024 年 6 月 1 日落地实施，为国家强制标 准，之前标准较低的企业将会受到影响，将提高前期低标准生产企业的生产成本。2024 年 5 月国家发改委、工业和信息化部等 5 部门联合印发《水泥行业节能降碳专项行动计划》提出 能效基准水平以下的要么技术改造要么淘汰。2024 年 6 月 18 日工信部公布《水泥玻璃行业 产能置换实施办法（2024 年本）（征求意见稿）》，该征求意见稿对产能置换的要求较 2021 年 的减量置换办法进一步趋严。我们可以看到这些标准、计划和办法的出台和落地，对于水泥 企业生产提出了更高的要求，同时对于产能置换也提出了更高的要求，不但进一步控制水泥 熟料的产能总量，同时对水 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 铂是工业用途广泛但地壳含量极低的稀贵金属。铂（Platinum），俗称白金， 是六种铂金属中最著名、应用最广泛的一种。铂及其合金是化学实验室中不 可或缺的电极、坩埚和可将材料加热至高温的皿。铂金既能耐高温，又能抵 御电弧的化学侵蚀，因此被用于电触点和火花点。铂金的需求总体分为汽车 催化剂、首饰、工业需求与氢能。过去十年，汽车催化剂领域的铂金需求最 高，2023 年约占总需求 48.8%；工业需求占铂金总需求的 32.1%左右，比重 仅次于汽车领域，其中化工、玻璃制品、医药领域各占 9.8%、5.93%、3.95%； 首饰消费占铂金总需求的 18%；氢能占铂金总需求的 1.1%。 全球铂矿储量分布具有极强聚拢型特征，供给状态显现高聚拢型及强刚性特 征。根据美国地质勘探局（United States Geological Survey，简称 USGS） 数据，全球 2023 年铂资源储量约 7.1 万吨，其中南非铂矿储量 6.3 万吨，占 全球总储量的 88.73%。2023 年全球铂矿年产量约 558 万盎司，其中南非以 400 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the platinum industry, indicating a potential structural shortage in the global platinum market [2]. Core Insights - Platinum is a widely used industrial precious metal with a low abundance in the Earth's crust. Its applications span across automotive catalysts, jewelry, industrial needs, and hydrogen energy. In 2023, automotive catalysts accounted for approximately 48.8% of total platinum demand, while industrial demand represented about 32.1% [2][18]. - The global platinum market is expected to enter a structural shortage period from 2024 to 2027, with an average annual supply gap of about 46.3 thousand ounces, which is approximately 6% of the annual demand [4][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Platinum - Platinum is a rare precious metal with extensive industrial applications, including use in electrodes, crucibles, and as a catalyst in various chemical reactions. Its rarity and high extraction costs contribute to its market value [13][18]. 2. Supply of Platinum - Global platinum reserves are highly concentrated, with South Africa holding approximately 88.73% of the total reserves. In 2023, global platinum production was about 5.58 million ounces, with South Africa contributing 4 million ounces [3][23]. - The supply chain is characterized by oligopolistic features, with the top five platinum producers accounting for over 83% of the total supply. The industry exhibits a high concentration of production, with a CR10 of over 99% [20][23]. 3. Demand for Platinum - The demand for platinum is projected to increase, with total global demand expected to reach 7.22 million ounces in 2024, marking a 20.33% increase from 2020. The automotive sector is anticipated to drive this growth, alongside stable industrial demand and a resurgence in jewelry demand [4][19]. 4. Recycling and Recovered Platinum - The share of recycled platinum in total supply has been increasing, with an average of 25% from 2019 to 2023. In 2023, the recovery volume was 1,390 tons, indicating a structural shift in platinum supply dynamics [40].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The 618 shopping festival data reflects a weak recovery in consumption, with some food and beverage companies performing well online [6][7] - The overall GMV for major e-commerce platforms during the 618 period increased by 13.6% year-on-year, but there are discrepancies in total sales data, with some reports indicating a decline of 7.02% [6][2] - The online sales of liquor have shown remarkable growth, with self-operated liquor sales on JD.com increasing by 30% and Moutai's self-operated sales also rising by 30% [2] - The competition among platforms has intensified, leading to longer promotional periods and simplified pricing rules, which has affected consumer behavior [6][2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a weak recovery in consumption, with online sales outperforming overall retail sales [6] - The retail sales of consumer goods in May showed a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, indicating a slow recovery [2] E-commerce Performance - The online retail sales of food and beverage companies are expected to improve, particularly on social e-commerce platforms like Douyin [6] - Notable brands such as Three Squirrels and Hai Tian have shown significant online sales growth, with Three Squirrels leading in the snack category on both Tmall and JD.com [2][6] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the food and beverage sector will continue to focus on online strategies, especially in social e-commerce, to adapt to changing consumer preferences [6] - Companies like Three Squirrels and Salted Fish are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of this trend [6]

Group 1 - The overall sales performance during the 618 shopping festival in 2024 was weak, with a total sales amount of 742.8 billion yuan, a 6.9% year-on-year decline for comprehensive e-commerce platforms, which accounted for 76.9% of total sales [1][27] - Live e-commerce platforms showed significant growth, with total sales reaching 206.8 billion yuan, representing 27.84% of the total sales during the festival [1][27] - The beauty and personal care category on comprehensive e-commerce platforms saw a sales decline of 13%, with skincare and makeup categories also experiencing declines [2][28] Group 2 - The theme of the 618 shopping festival was "low price" and "simplification," reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards high cost-performance products [5][34] - The cancellation of the pre-sale phase and the emphasis on low prices by major platforms indicate a heightened focus on customer acquisition amid a weak consumption environment [5][34] - Brand differentiation is intensifying, with domestic brands like Proya and Han Shu performing well against international competitors, particularly on platforms like Douyin [6][35] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest that while overall consumer recovery is weak, the beauty sector remains promising, particularly for high cost-performance domestic brands that are capturing market share from mid-to-high-end international brands [12][38] - Companies with strong product development capabilities and brand recognition, such as Proya and Beitaini, are expected to benefit from the ongoing market dynamics [12][38] - The beauty market is experiencing increased competition, and brands that can innovate and maintain strong brand images will have a competitive advantage [12][38]

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call was directed towards invited clients of Dongxing Securities Research Institute, indicating a focus on the financial services industry and investment research sector [1] Core Points and Arguments - The statements made by the guests during the meeting represent personal opinions and do not constitute specific judgments or investment advice regarding particular securities at specific price points or market conditions [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The nature of the meeting emphasizes the importance of understanding that opinions shared are subjective and should not be interpreted as definitive investment recommendations [1]

Group 1: Beauty Industry Insights - The overall consumer recovery is weak, but the beauty consumption remains vibrant, with high-quality domestic brands capturing market share from mid-to-high-end international brands due to their cost-effectiveness [1][32] - The beauty industry is experiencing intensified competition, leading to increased brand differentiation. Brands with technological R&D advantages and strong brand image will have a competitive edge [1][32] - Notable domestic brands such as Proya and Betaini have established strong product and brand power, while companies focusing on effective skincare, like Juzhibio and Marubi, are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [1][32] Group 2: E-commerce Performance - The 618 shopping festival saw a decline in overall sales, with comprehensive e-commerce platforms generating 5,717 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year, while live e-commerce platforms achieved 2,068 billion yuan, accounting for 27.84% of total sales [12][28] - The beauty category's performance was weak, with a 13% decline in sales across comprehensive e-commerce platforms, while Douyin's live e-commerce saw a 107% increase in beauty product sales compared to the previous year [11][12] - The shift towards high cost-performance products is evident, with platforms emphasizing low prices as a key marketing strategy during the 618 festival [11][42] Group 3: Brand Performance and Rankings - During the 618 festival, two domestic brands entered the top 10 on Tmall, with Proya maintaining its top position. Other brands like Weinuona and Kefu Mei showed significant movement in rankings [29][46] - Juzhibio reported over 60% year-on-year growth in GMV across all channels, with substantial increases on major platforms like Tmall and Douyin [29][46] - Han Shu and Proya continued to lead in sales on various platforms, demonstrating the competitive strength of domestic brands in the beauty sector [31][43] Group 4: Moutai's Market Strategy - Moutai is implementing strategies to stabilize market expectations and reverse the declining trend of its product prices, including the cancellation of certain packaging and the introduction of product upgrades [33][48] - The price of Moutai has decreased from approximately 2,500 yuan to around 2,150 yuan, reflecting a 15% drop, attributed to seasonal demand weakness and e-commerce promotions [34][50] - Moutai's long-term price outlook is supported by macroeconomic price growth expectations, suggesting potential recovery as overall market prices improve [34][51]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The overall sales during the 618 shopping festival were weak, with a total sales amount of 742.8 billion yuan, a 6.9% year-on-year decline for comprehensive e-commerce platforms [2][3] - Live e-commerce platforms showed strong performance, with total sales reaching 206.8 billion yuan, accounting for 27.84% of the total sales during the event [2] - The themes of "low price" and "simplification" dominated this year's 618 shopping festival, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards high cost-performance products [2] - The beauty industry saw a decline in overall performance, with personal care and beauty sales on comprehensive e-commerce platforms dropping by 13% year-on-year [3] - However, some high-quality domestic brands managed to perform well, with Douyin's beauty products seeing a 107% increase in sales compared to last year [3][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The beauty industry is experiencing a slowdown in consumer demand, with brand differentiation becoming more pronounced [3][6] - Domestic brands like Pechoin and Han Shu are gaining market share, outperforming international brands in certain categories [6] Key Companies and Performance - Pechoin achieved top sales across major platforms, with growth rates exceeding 70% on Tmall and Douyin [3][6] - Han Shu's sales increased significantly across various platforms, with a 140% increase on Tmall [6] - Other notable brands such as Cofo and Juzi Bio also reported substantial growth, with Cofo's sales on Douyin increasing by 300% [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality domestic beauty brands that have strong product development capabilities and brand recognition, such as Pechoin and Beitaini [6][7] - Companies positioned in high-potential segments, like Juzi Bio and Marumi, are also expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [6][7]