Group 1 - The FOMC's dot plot indicates a significant tightening, with the median expected rate cut for the year reduced from 75 basis points to 25 basis points, reflecting a shift in the committee's stance on monetary policy [2][3] - Current economic indicators such as GDP growth at 2.84% year-on-year and a stable unemployment rate do not support the need for rate cuts, with inflation being the primary driver for any potential cuts [3][4] - The real estate sector is experiencing a negative feedback loop due to declining property prices, which suppresses consumer spending and further reduces housing demand, leading to a continuous cycle of price drops [7][8][9] Group 2 - The real estate industry's downturn is impacting local government revenues and overall domestic demand, as the decline in property sales affects land sales income, which is crucial for local government finances [23] - The report anticipates a new balance in the real estate sector as systemic policies are implemented, suggesting that the industry may stabilize and return to a healthier growth trajectory [9] - The construction and building materials sector is expected to face challenges due to the real estate slump, but there are opportunities for growth as the market seeks to establish a new equilibrium [24] Group 3 - The AI server market is evolving with the introduction of the "Meta Brain" ecosystem, which aims to enhance collaboration between software developers and distribution channels, marking a transition to a more integrated sales model [12] - The domestic airline industry is showing signs of recovery, with a slight increase in capacity and passenger load factors, although international routes remain under pressure due to seasonal factors [28][30] - The insurance sector is projected to see a recovery in demand driven by increased consumer awareness and favorable economic conditions, with expectations for improved performance across life and property insurance segments [32][34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing high growth in business volume, with a year-on-year increase of 23.8% in May, surpassing the previous month's growth rate of 22.7% [2][8] - Intense price competition continues, with the average price per ticket dropping from 7.99 yuan in April to 7.85 yuan in May, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.2% [17][19] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong showing resilience in pricing strategies, while Shentong and Yunda are engaging in aggressive price competition [28][29] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The express delivery industry comprises 128 companies, with a total market value of 30,250.61 billion yuan, representing 3.66% of the overall market [1] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry stands at 16.54 [1] Business Volume Analysis - In May, the total business volume reached 14.78 billion pieces, with same-city deliveries growing by 21.1% and intercity deliveries by 24.4% [2][8] - The demand in the industry remains strong, with major players exceeding peak levels from the previous year [7][13] Pricing Trends - The price competition is particularly fierce in the low-price segment, with significant declines in ticket prices for major companies [17][19] - Shentong and Yunda's ticket revenues are nearing 2 yuan, indicating a highly competitive environment [22][24] Market Share Dynamics - The market share of Yunda and Shentong has increased by approximately 0.9 percentage points and 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [13][28] - The industry concentration ratio (CR8) has improved, indicating a shift towards larger players gaining market share [25][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies Zhongtong and Yuantong, as they are better positioned to navigate the ongoing price competition and potential market recovery [29][28]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|-------|--------------------------------|-------------------| | 分析师推荐 \n【东兴传媒互联网】腾讯控股 (00700)2024Q1 业绩公告点评：净利润高速增 | A 股港股市场 \n指数名称 | 2024 | 年 6 月 20 \n收盘价 | 日星期四 \n涨跌 % | | 长， AI 为业务发展注入新动力（ 20240619） | 上证指数 | | 3,005.44 | -0.42 | | 事件：腾讯发布 2024 年一季度业绩公告， 2024Q1 公司实现营业收入 159 ...

农林牧渔行业:5 月猪价涨势迅猛, 养殖盈利明显改善 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现:5 月中下旬起猪价涨势迅猛。农业农村部监测数据显示,2024 年 5 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 38.70 元/公斤、15.59 元/公斤和 25.24 元/公斤,同比变化分别为 6.04%、7.16%和 4.09%,环比变化分别为 5.38%、 1.55%和 0.24%。5 月中下旬起猪价出现明显抬升,6 月快速上涨趋势持续,6 月中旬全国生猪出栏均价已达 19 元/公斤左右。供应端对于后市预期乐观,存 在缩量挺价情绪,二次育肥积极入场,与终端市场抢夺猪源,进一步推升了猪 价上涨趋势。消费端需求支撑有限,屠宰企业存在压价行为,供需持续博弈。 产能变化趋势:国家统计局数据显示,5 月全国能繁母猪存栏 3996 万头,环 比小幅增长 0.25%,产能去化暂告一段落。4 月能繁母猪存栏低点相比 22 年 高点去化幅度 9.20%,现有的产能去化积累已足以带来新一轮周期的上涨。 后市周期预判:能繁母猪存栏量自 23 年下半年开始加速去化并持续到 24 年 Q1,产能端的收缩预计从 24Q2 开始逐步传导至商品猪出栏,叠 ...

公 司 研 究 齐鲁银行（601665.SH）：深耕经济大省， 2024年6月20日 推荐/首次 高扩表城商行 东 齐鲁银行 公司报告 兴 证 基本概况：齐鲁银行成立于 1996 年，总部位于山东济南。公司股权结构均衡 公司简介： 券 稳定，国资背景深厚；核心管理团队稳定，组织层级扁平、机制灵活。近年齐 齐鲁银行成立于 1996年6月6日，是全国 股 鲁银行保持快速扩表，盈利增速跻身第一梯队，ROE持续提升。2023年齐鲁银 首批、山东省首家设立并引进境外战略投资 份 行ROE为12.9%，在上市城商行中排名第6。 的城商行。战略布局根植济南，立足山东， 有 我们认为，下一阶段齐鲁银行维持盈利高增的关键在于：（1）规模能否保持高 辐射天津、河南、河北。2021年6月18日， 限 增，未来公司扩表空间有多大；（2）净息差能否保持相对稳定；（3）资产质量 齐鲁银行在上海证券交易所正式挂牌上市 能否延续改善趋势，信用成本是否具有下降空间。 （股票代码601665.SH）。国内主体信用评级 公 达到AAA最高等级，连续多年获得山东省地 司  规模：稳步推进异地布局、县域金融，快速扩表有支撑。 方金融企业绩效评价“A ...

行 业 研 究 非银行金融行业跟踪：融券&转融券 2024年6月20日 看好/维持 规模下降后对权益市场波动影响减 东 非银行金融 行业报告 兴 弱，投资者信心有望持续修复 证 券 证券：6月10日至6月14日一周市场日均成交额环比减少约170亿至0.75 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 万亿；两融余额（6月14日）持平于1.5万亿。继新“国九条”颁布后，多部 无 份 门就发展经济、优化资本市场的政策有序推出，房地产政策效果也有望逐步显 行业基本资料 占比% 有 现。在稳定市场、保护消费者权益层面，周日证监会在就融券和转融券相关情 限 股票家数 82 1.79% 况答记者问时指出，经过对相关业务的严格监管，截至6月14日全市场转融 公 行业市值(亿元) 54085.69 6.45% 券余额340亿元，较2月6日政策发布时下降536亿元，降幅61%，为今年 司 流通市值(亿元) 41827.78 6.21% 以来最低水平，转融券余额占A股流通市值0.05%。未来还将持续加大行为监 证 管和穿透式监管力度，对大股东、相关机构通过多层嵌套、融券“绕道”减持 行业平均市盈率 17.9 / 券 限售股等违法违规行为，依法 ...

行 业 研 究 建材行业：双重发力加速水泥落后 2024年6月20日 看好/维持 产能淘汰，等待新平衡 东 建材 行业报告 兴 证 券 事件：近期水泥行业的相关产能标准和文件陆续出台和落地，有利水泥行业落 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 后产能淘汰，加速供需新平衡重建。 无 份 资料来源：同花顺 有 点评： 行业基本资料 占比% 限 相关政策持续推动水泥落后产能淘汰，优化水泥供给端。工业和信息化部组织 股票家数 77 1.68% 公 制定的GB 175-2023《通用硅酸盐水泥》国家强制标准在2024年6月1日落 行业市值(亿元) 6863.94 0.82% 司 地实施。该标准对水泥的组分、水泥生产用材料、水泥的化学成分要求、水泥 证 物理性要求等提出了新标准要求，水泥产品和生产的标准得到进一步的提高。 流通市值(亿元) 5187.94 0.77% 券 该标准为国家强制标准，之前标准较低的企业将会受到影响，将提高前期低标 行业平均市盈率 26.48 / 研 准生产企业的生产成本。这些水泥企业由于产能落后，生产成本较高，在当前 资料来源：恒生聚源、东兴证券研究所 究 的行业低迷环境下经营处于困境。新标准会进一步提 ...

行 业 研 究 非银行金融行业跟踪：融券&转融券 2024年6月20日 看好/维持 规模下降后对权益市场波动影响减 东 非银行金融 行业报告 兴 弱，投资者信心有望持续修复 证 券 证券：6月10日至6月14日一周市场日均成交额环比减少约170亿至0.75 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 万亿；两融余额（6月14日）持平于1.5万亿。继新“国九条”颁布后，多部 无 份 门就发展经济、优化资本市场的政策有序推出，房地产政策效果也有望逐步显 行业基本资料 占比% 有 现。在稳定市场、保护消费者权益层面，周日证监会在就融券和转融券相关情 限 股票家数 82 1.79% 况答记者问时指出，经过对相关业务的严格监管，截至6月14日全市场转融 公 行业市值(亿元) 54085.69 6.45% 券余额340亿元，较2月6日政策发布时下降536亿元，降幅61%，为今年 司 流通市值(亿元) 41827.78 6.21% 以来最低水平，转融券余额占A股流通市值0.05%。未来还将持续加大行为监 证 管和穿透式监管力度，对大股东、相关机构通过多层嵌套、融券“绕道”减持 行业平均市盈率 17.9 / 券 限售股等违法违规行为，依法 ...

东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 晨 报 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------|-------|--------------------------------|------------| | 分析师推荐 | A 股港股市场 | 2024 | 年 6 月 19 | 日星期三 | | | 指数名称 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 % | | 【东兴计算机】汽车智能化快速渗透，车路协同再迎催化（ 20240605） | 上证指数 | | 3,018.05 | -0.4 | | 汽车智能化发展符合行业规律，具备商业合理性，当前实现快速渗透。电动 | | | | | | 化为智能化提供能量基础，智能化提升电动汽车驾乘体验并降低驾驶难度， | 深证成指 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings, indicating an expected return exceeding 15% relative to market benchmarks [8][19]. Core Insights - Tencent's revenue for Q1 2024 reached 159.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6%, with a significant increase in Non-IFRS net profit by 54% to 50.27 billion yuan [20][21]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in its advertising business, driven by increased user engagement across platforms like WeChat and video accounts, contributing to a 26% year-on-year growth in advertising revenue [19][21]. - The report highlights Tencent's strong performance in AI and cloud services, with ongoing investments in AI capabilities and infrastructure, which are expected to support future growth [2][21]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services was 52.3 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, with strong growth in wealth management services [1]. - The company's gross margin improved to 52.6%, up 7.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased revenue from video and advertising services [21]. - Forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are projected at 171.6 billion yuan, 188.9 billion yuan, and 209.7 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19X, 17X, and 16X [2][34]. User Engagement and Growth Metrics - User engagement metrics show over 80% growth in usage time for video services, with a 30% increase in revenue from mini-games [2][24]. - Monthly active users for WeChat and WeChat combined reached 1.359 billion, marking a 3% increase year-on-year [24]. Revenue Breakdown - The report indicates a decline in value-added services revenue to 78.63 billion yuan, down 0.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in domestic game revenue [19]. - Advertising revenue reached 26.5 billion yuan, up 26% year-on-year, attributed to the recovery in domestic consumption and increased advertising spending [19].