行 业 研 究 电力设备及新能源行业：三元路线份额 2024年3月8日 看好/维持 有望提升，前驱体行业或将受益 东 电力设备及 行业报告 兴 新能源 证 券 分析师 洪 一 电话：0755-82832082 邮箱：hongyi@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480516110001 研究助理 侯河清 电话：010-66554108 邮箱：houhq@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480122040023 股 研究助理 吴征洋 电话：010-66554045 邮箱：wuzhy@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480123010003 份 有 投资摘要： 限 公 三元电池份额有望迎来拐点。三元正极材料份额近年逐渐萎缩，磷酸铁锂出货量激增。我们认为这种情况可能在 2024年出 司 现拐点。主要原因有二：一、上游原材料价格下跌：在锂价持续下跌维持低位稳定的背景下，LFP和NCM的价差正在逐渐 证 缩小。根据我们的测算，单车成本差距已经收窄至 7000 元左右。二、下游需求端出现边际变化：2023 年年末以来，新能 券 源汽车新车价格连续下调，降价增配已成主要竞争手段；增程式新能源车 ...

行 业 研 究 证券行业：提振信心&化解风险，资 2024年3月8日 看好/维持 本市场生态有望持续优化 东 非银行金融 行业报告 兴 ——证监会主席吴清在记者会上的讲话点评 证 券 事件：3月6日下午，十四届全国人大二次会议举行经济主题记者会，证监会 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 主席吴清出席该记者会并接受中外媒体采访。 无 份 严监、严管，补齐监管短板、严打违法行为，保护投资者权益被提升至崭新高 行业基本资料 占比% 有 限 度。吴清主席提出要延续之前在中央金融工作会议上对资本市场的要求，持续 股票家数 83 1.8% 公 加强监管全覆盖，“针对股票市场、债券市场、期货和衍生品市场等各领域、 行业市值(亿元) 55560.88 6.58% 司 各主体、各环节，全面检视并加快补齐监管存在的短板弱项。”细化来说，日 流通市值(亿元) 43004.64 6.4% 常监督上要抓住三件事：一是防假打假，二是规范减持，三是推动分红，打击 证 行业平均市盈率 16.51 / 违法违规行为，全方位维护资本市场的良好环境，保护投资者特别是中小投资 券 行业指数走势图 研 者合法权益。我们预计， 保护投资者权益、提升投资者参 ...

行 业 研 究 2024 年动力电池板块投资策略：行业步入 2024年3月8日 看好/维持 筑底期，关注电池出海与新技术落地 东 电力设备及 行业报告 兴 新能源 证 分析师 洪一 电话：0755-82832082 邮箱：hongyi@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480516110001 券 研究助理 吴征洋 电话：010-66554045 邮箱：wuzhy@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480123010003 股 份 投资摘要： 有 限 我们认为电动化的大势并未改变，全球新能源车渗透率仍处于S型增长曲线上升的早期阶段。随着政策的持续引导激励以及 公 产品供给的不断完善，美国、东南亚等海外市场需求有望快速发力崛起，成为行业增长的新一轮驱动力，同时快充等技术的 司 加速迭代将加速油电平价进程，我们认为动力电池作为新能源车产业链核心环节，将持续受益于产业链成长的过程，未来仍 证 将维持稳固增长趋势。 券 当前板块核心问题依旧在于供给过剩，短期内基本面仍处于筑底阶段，行业扩张速度已明显放缓，下游竞争日益激烈叠加行 研 业再融资政策的收紧，对各企业资金端压力持续提升，行业有望加速进入尾部出 ...

DONGXING 行 电新行业｜仅供策略会使用 业 研 SECURITIES 究 东 兴 证 券 竞争加剧、优胜劣汰正当时 股 份 有 限 公 ——光伏行业2024年展望报告—— 司 证 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Agora (API.NASDAQ) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 36 million USD in Q4 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.9% [2] - The net loss for the quarter was 2.61 million USD, while the Non-GAAP net profit was 1.4 million USD [2] - The overall revenue decline in Q4 2023 is expected to be offset by accelerated growth in the second half of 2024 due to domestic digital business and overseas live e-commerce development [2] - Cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures have shown significant results, with expectations of achieving breakeven in 2024 [2] - The overseas market has become the main growth driver for the company, with competitors like Twilio exiting the cloud video communication segment, allowing Agora to expand its market share [2][3] Financial Summary - In Q4 2023, Agora's overseas revenue was 15.3 million USD, a decrease of 3.16% year-on-year, primarily due to a slowdown in emerging markets and reduced global venture capital [2] - The company's domestic revenue was 20.7 million USD, reflecting a stable decline of 10.39% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q4 2023 was 62.9%, with a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] - Research and development expenses were 16.31 million USD, accounting for 45.3% of revenue, a decrease of 7.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Sales and management expenses also saw reductions, contributing to an overall decrease in the expense ratio [2] Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 146.8 million USD in 2024, with a growth rate of 3.7%, followed by 172.0 million USD in 2025 and 205.5 million USD in 2026, with respective growth rates of 17.2% and 19.4% [3][4] - The projected net losses for the next three years are -11.0 million USD in 2024, -2.5 million USD in 2025, and -2.2 million USD in 2026 [3][4]

Economic Growth - The GDP growth target for 2024 is set at 5%, aligning with market expectations[3] - The contribution of consumption to economic growth reached 82.5% last year, but the growth rate is expected to decline this year due to base effect[15] - Export performance is anticipated to improve slightly compared to last year, driven by overseas inventory replenishment[15] Policy Continuity - The economic policy framework remains consistent with the December 2023 Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing a supportive fiscal and monetary policy environment[4] - A fiscal deficit target of 3% has been established, with plans to issue CNY 1 trillion in special long-term bonds this year[4][20] - Monetary policy will continue to be flexible and effective, ensuring adequate liquidity in the market[20] Real Estate and Employment - The real estate sector is expected to see a slight reduction in decline due to new financing policies and support for project completion[15] - The government aims to create over 12 million new urban jobs this year, with a focus on supporting industries with high employment capacity[4][38] - Emphasis on equal support for reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises across different ownership types[33] Risks and Challenges - Global inflation exceeding expectations poses a risk of global recession[5] - Domestic economic recovery faces challenges such as insufficient effective demand and weak social expectations[14]

Core Viewpoints - The profitability of state-owned banks is expected to remain stable, supported by strong dividend yields and favorable policies from the central government [1][2][10] - The average dividend yield of state-owned banks is 5.35%, which is over 300 basis points higher than the 10-year government bond yield, highlighting their attractiveness in a low-growth environment [2][10] - The valuation of state-owned banks is anticipated to recover due to multiple supportive factors, including stable earnings, high dividend appeal, low institutional positioning, and government support [3][10] Earnings Stability - The profit growth rate of major state-owned banks is projected to remain steady in 2024, driven by rapid loan growth and the release of policy benefits on the liability side [1][10] - Although asset yield rates are expected to decline, the pressure on net interest margins will be alleviated, allowing for stable revenue growth [1][10] - The asset quality of major banks is expected to remain stable, with sufficient provisioning capacity to support steady profit growth [1][10] Dividend Appeal - In the current macro environment characterized by low growth and low inflation, the defensive investment value of high dividend yields is increasing [2][10] - The banking sector's dividend yield is currently at 5.29%, which is historically high, making it an attractive choice for dividend strategies [2][10] - State-owned banks have maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of around 30% over the past five years, ensuring reliable dividend income [2][10] Market Support - Institutional investors currently have low exposure to bank stocks, with only 1.92% of actively managed equity funds allocated to the banking sector, indicating significant room for increased investment [5][10] - The central government is expected to inject substantial funds into the banking sector, enhancing market confidence and supporting stock prices [5][10] - The outflow pressure from northbound capital is expected to ease, providing opportunities for structural increases in investment in the banking sector [5][10] Valuation Recovery - The current price-to-book ratio of state-owned banks is 0.59, reflecting a recovery of 0.11 from the low point at the end of 2022, indicating potential for further valuation support [10] - The valuation of state-owned banks remains at historical lows, which does not align with their stable earnings and asset quality [3][10]

行 业 研 究 计算机行业：人工智能或将成为新 2024年3月6日 看好/维持 质生产力发展重要引擎 东 计算机 行业报告 兴 ——人工智能行业动态追踪 证 券 事件： 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 无 份 1、3月5日，2024年《政府工作报告》提出要大力推进现代化产业体系建设， 行业基本资料 占比% 有 加快发展新质生产力。要深化大数据、人工智能等研发应用，开展“人工智能+” 限 行动，打造具有国际竞争力的数字产业集群。 股票家数 274 5.95% 公 行业市值(亿元) 33110.15 3.92% 2、3月4日，Anthropic发布了新一代AI大模型系列Claude 3。该系列包含三 司 流通市值(亿元) 26695.92 3.97% 个模型，按能力由弱到强排列分别是Claude 3 Haiku、Claude 3 Sonnet和Claude 证 行业平均市盈率 187.7 / 3 Opus。 券 资料来源：恒生聚源、东兴证券研究所 研 点评： 行业指数走势图 究 人工智能有望作为新质生产力引擎加速发展。有别于传统生产力，新质生产力 报 涉及领域新、技术含量高，代表着一种科技创新发挥主导作用的生产力， ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong stability of profitability for state-owned banks, with expectations for steady profit growth in 2024 due to their role in counter-cyclical adjustments and continued loan growth [14][21] - High dividend yields are emphasized as an attractive investment strategy in the current low-growth, low-inflation environment, with state-owned banks offering an average dividend yield of 5.35%, significantly above the 10-year government bond yield [15][21] - The report notes that institutional investors currently have low allocations to bank stocks, indicating potential for increased investment as market conditions stabilize and confidence improves [16][21] Banking Sector Analysis - The report indicates that the total social financing (TSF) for the first two months of the year was 8.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan, primarily due to weak credit demand and slow local government bond issuance [39] - The report discusses the decline in personal loans, with a net reduction of 590.7 billion yuan in February, attributed to weak housing mortgage demand and high early repayment rates [12][39] - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable profitability levels despite pressures on net interest margins, with the potential for valuation recovery supported by favorable policies and market conditions [21][39] Real Estate Sector Insights - The report notes a continued decline in new home sales, with a year-to-date decrease of 31.95% in 26 cities, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market [46] - Recent policy changes, such as the lifting of restrictions on second-hand housing purchases in Hangzhou, are expected to impact market dynamics positively [48][61] - The report suggests that urban village renovations and affordable housing construction are becoming key drivers for real estate investment and market demand [49]

行 业 研 究 电力设备及新能源行业：新能源车 2024年3月5日 看好/维持 价格战延续背景下，产品力有望成 东 电力设备及新 行业报告 兴 为电池环节核心竞争要素 能源 证 券 摘要： 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 无 份 市场回顾：2024年2月，电力设备及新能源板块（CI005011）上涨10.13%， 行业基本资料 占比% 有 同期沪深300指数上涨9.35%。 限 行业重要事件：1 月中旬特斯拉与理想开启新一轮降价促销，2 月比亚迪跟进 股票家数 242 5.25% 公 价格调整，随后一周内多品牌迅速跟进推出优惠政策。头部车企开启新一轮促 行业市值(亿元) 42100.89 4.98% 司 销活动预计将带动其他主机厂后续跟进，我们认为短期内有望提振销量但车企 流通市值(亿元) 35664.82 5.3% 证 集中高频的降价促销活动亦可能催生如23Q1的观望情绪，同时叠加小米汽车 行业平均市盈率 18.49 / 券 等高预期车型在年内陆续落地，新能源车竞争预计将延续23年态势。 行业指数走势图 研 电池级碳酸锂价格由23年高点持续下行至24年1月10万元/吨左右，区间降 究 幅80%，结合春节后Q1 ...