Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key policy direction for 2025, particularly in the context of real estate drag and external uncertainties [1] - The report highlights the potential impact of U.S. tariffs and tax cuts on inflation uncertainty, which may affect interest rate cuts [1] - The central economic work conference has identified expanding domestic demand and preventing real estate risks as critical components of risk prevention for 2025 [1] Industry Overview - The construction materials sector is advised to focus on supply-side optimization and mergers, benefiting leading and excellent companies [4] - The construction sector is expected to see improved demand elasticity influenced by central government fiscal efforts, with state-owned enterprises benefiting significantly from policies [4] - The report suggests that the transportation sector is experiencing a price competition phase, with a focus on supply-demand marginal improvements and policy adjustments [11][23] Company Insights - Zhonghe Technology is planning a major asset restructuring involving the acquisition of a 71.97% stake in Zhonghe Xiyi through a share issuance [7] - Changan Automobile is projected to achieve a total scale of over 3 million vehicles in 2025, with a market share exceeding 9.4% and a procurement amount of 148.7 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year increase [8] - The report indicates that the logistics sector, particularly leading companies like Zhongtong and YTO, are expected to maintain stable profitability during downturns due to their advantages in franchisee stability [12] Market Trends - The report notes that the retail and social services sectors are experiencing a recovery in consumer spending, with a 3.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales from January to November 2024 [46] - The report identifies a shift towards "interest consumption," which is expected to drive growth in sectors like toys and beauty products, benefiting companies that can leverage IP and engage younger consumers [66][89] - The metal industry is anticipated to see a strong cycle driven by liquidity changes and inventory cycles, with a focus on industrial metals and new materials [16][29]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-banking financial sector, particularly the securities industry, with a "看好" (positive) rating for 2025 [1] Core Views - The securities sector outperformed major market indices in 2024, with the Shenwan Secondary Securities Index rising by 33.32% year-to-date as of December 20, 2024 [1] - The industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in the capital markets in 2025, driven by supportive macroeconomic policies and regulatory improvements [2] - The "9.24" policy announcements in 2024 significantly boosted market trading volumes, with daily average trading volume reaching 20.15 trillion yuan in October, up from 5.973 trillion yuan in August [3] - Wealth management and ETF-related businesses are seen as key growth areas for securities firms, with potential for rapid expansion in fee-based income [3] - The report highlights the importance of asset allocation and risk management capabilities for securities firms, especially in a volatile market environment [4] - Industry consolidation is expected to accelerate in 2025, with several major mergers and acquisitions anticipated, including potential deals involving Guotai Junan & Haitong, Minsheng & Guolian, and others [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance and Policy Impact - The securities sector experienced a strong rebound in 2024, driven by multiple policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market and boosting investor confidence [1] - The "9.24" policy announcements in 2024 led to a significant increase in market trading volumes, with daily average trading volume stabilizing above 1 trillion yuan in the latter months of the year [3] - The report expects continued policy support in 2025, including more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, which could further benefit the securities industry [2] Wealth Management and ETF Opportunities - The rapid growth in ETF investments is seen as a key driver for wealth management businesses, with securities firms expected to focus on ETF-related products and services [3] - The report notes that the rise in ETF investments could lead to increased fee income for securities firms, particularly in the area of fund settlement services [3] - Wealth management transformation remains a critical focus for securities firms, with a shift towards higher-value advisory services and product offerings [53] Industry Consolidation and Regulatory Trends - The report anticipates an acceleration in industry consolidation in 2025, with several major mergers and acquisitions expected to take place [5] - Regulatory trends are expected to remain focused on improving the capital market environment and standardizing the behavior of market participants [2] - The report highlights the importance of regulatory clarity and policy support in driving industry performance and valuation recovery [4] Investment Strategy and Valuation - The report suggests that the securities sector's valuation remains attractive, with a current PB ratio of 1.59x, which is at the 40.50% percentile of its 10-year historical range [4] - The report recommends focusing on leading securities firms with strong innovation capabilities and undervalued stocks, particularly those with exposure to wealth management and ETF-related businesses [5] - The report also emphasizes the importance of policy direction in determining the industry's performance and valuation recovery in 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" for the food and beverage sector, indicating a favorable outlook for the next six months [47]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "Gift Giving" feature by WeChat is expected to create a new consumption channel, particularly benefiting food and beverage companies with gifting attributes during peak gifting seasons like the Spring Festival and Valentine's Day [1][4]. - Companies that actively embrace this new channel are likely to gain a competitive edge, especially in the snack food segment, which has historically invested less in WeChat stores [11]. - The collaboration between companies like Laiyifen and Tencent enhances their market presence and operational capabilities, leveraging consumer data for targeted marketing [35]. Summary by Sections WeChat Gift Giving Feature - The "Gift Giving" feature is in a testing phase and aims to meet the growing gifting demand in a competitive online environment [1][4]. - This feature is anticipated to significantly boost transactions during major holidays, providing a new sales avenue for food and beverage companies [1]. Strategic Partnerships - The report highlights that certain companies, such as Laiyifen, are strategic partners with Tencent, allowing for deep collaboration in areas like marketing and digital infrastructure [2]. Supply Chain Innovations - Companies are restructuring their supply chains through self-built factories and innovative partnerships with raw material suppliers to reduce costs [3]. Market Dynamics - The food and beverage industry is seeing a shift towards online sales, with companies like Laiyifen and Good Products experiencing rapid growth in gift box sales, indicating a strong market response to the new gifting trend [33][34]. - The report notes that snack food companies are particularly well-positioned to capitalize on the WeChat gifting feature due to their lower historical investment in online channels [11][34].

回避：相对弱于市场基准指数收益率 5％以上。 东 兴 晨 报 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 块（20241226） 行业回顾：量升价降贯穿全年，消费降级对行业影响较明显 截至 2024 年 12 月 24 日，年初以来交运板块涨幅约 12.5%，与之对比沪深 300 涨幅为 15.4%。虽然涨幅略低于沪深 300，但运输板块在申万一级板块中涨幅 依旧相对靠前。子板块中，市场对于高确定性子板块和周期底部反转的子板 块更加关注。 回顾今年全年，我们认为量升价降是今年运输行业比较明显的一个趋势，而 消费端的降级对于这种变化起到了比较关键的作用。量升意味着国内市场的 潜在需求依旧有待挖掘，价降则说明了增量客户对于性价比提出了更高的要 求，下沉市场的重要性继续凸显。 25 年展望：正视行业价格竞争，重视供需边际改善和政策调控 我们认为，量升价降不仅是今年的现状，由此可能带来的价格内卷性竞争也 是 25 年行业可能会面临的挑战。12 月召开的中央经济工作会议中明确提出， 要综合整治"内卷式"竞争，规范地方政府和企业行为，说明政府部门对于 明年价格竞争加剧的可能性有充分的认识，同时也说明国家对于反内卷 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------|-------|-----------------------|-----------------------------------------------|-------------|---------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 商贸零售&社会服务行业 | 2025 \n望：政策激发消费活力，聚焦高景气赛道 | 年投资展 \n | 2024 年 12 月 27 日 \n看好/维持 \n商贸零售 行业报告 | | | 分析师 刘田田 电话： | | 010-66554038 | 邮箱： liutt@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： S1480521010001 | | | 分析师 魏宇萌 电话： | | 010-66555446 | 邮箱： weiym@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： S1480522090004 | 投资摘要： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the construction and building materials industry, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [12][19]. Core Insights - The real estate sector's negative cycle continues to impact various aspects of the Chinese economy, constraining domestic demand and healthy economic development. The decline in new and second-hand housing prices has persisted for nearly three years, although there are signs of a slowdown in the cycle's acceleration [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the return to a long-term healthy development trajectory for the real estate sector is essential to avoid systemic risks for the Chinese economy. As the downward momentum in real estate weakens and policy measures begin to take effect, the pessimistic expectations from prolonged declines are expected to improve, leading to a recovery in industry valuations [2][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The negative cycle in real estate has affected the real estate chain, government chain, consumption chain, and financial chain, significantly constraining the release of domestic demand and impacting overall economic health. The cumulative income from land use rights transfer and general public revenue decreased by 22.4% and 0.6% respectively from January to September 2024 [1][11]. - The cumulative social financing scale from January to November 2024 was 29.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.62%, with a more significant drop of 20.47% when excluding government bond issuance [1][11]. Policy Measures - 2024 is seen as a year to counteract the drag from real estate, address local government debt, and promote new productive forces. The report highlights the importance of government bond issuance and monetary policy adjustments to stimulate domestic demand [11][31]. - The report outlines that various policies have been introduced since the fourth quarter of 2021 to address the issues in the real estate sector, including measures to stimulate housing demand and support the normal operation of real estate companies [16][31]. Industry Outlook - The construction and building materials industry is expected to return to a new balance due to supply-side optimization and stabilization in the real estate sector, which will improve valuations and performance. The report notes that the industry has faced intense competition and many small to medium enterprises are struggling [14][15]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong competitive advantages and risk resilience, as they are likely to benefit the most from supply-side improvements and potential mergers and acquisitions [18][19]. Key Company Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and ratings for key companies in the industry, with several companies receiving a strong buy recommendation based on their expected performance and market conditions [19][20].

行 业 研 究 金属行业：西部矿业（601168.SH）：持续优化的多金属采选冶一体化西部龙头 （II）-冶炼及多元板块拆分梳理 公司积极融入世界级盐湖产业基地建设，通过股权投资等方式进入盐湖提镁、盐湖提锂等 相关领域。公司拥有青海团结湖镁盐矿，含镁盐资源量 3046.25 万吨，氯化镁品位 36%， 证载规模 50 万吨/年，剩余资源可开采年限 60 年。2023 年，公司镁类产品实现营业收入 4.62亿元，同比增长41.29%，毛利率高达21.69%，较2022年增加3.93个百分点。2024H1， 公司生产高纯氢氧化镁 58919 吨，完成计划的 58.92%。 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 矿山实际开工率受政策影响出现下滑等。 S1480522060001，021-25102909，liuhang-yjs@dxzq.net.cn 当前硬件创新周期叠加 AI 浪潮，电子行业迎来新的发展阶段。我们建议积极关注行业层面 边际变化，重视智能硬件端创新，看好方向如下： 投资建议：当前硬件创新周期叠加 AI 浪潮，电子行业迎来新的发展阶段。我们建议积极关 首席周观点：2024 年 ...

以报告日后的 6 个月内，公司股价相对于同期市场基准指数的表现为标准定义： 强烈推荐：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 15％以上； 行业投资评级（A 股市场基准为沪深 300 指数，香港市场基准为恒生指数，美国市场基准为标普 500 指 数）： 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 东兴晨报 P1 2024 年 12 月 26 日星期四 A 股新股日历（本周网上发行新股） *价格单位为元/股 *价格单位为元/股 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 【东兴有色金属】金属行业 2025 年度展望：流动性周期切换叠加库存周期 新一轮基钦周期开启有助商品价格弹性释放。从 2003 年 2024 年，我们观察 发现，市场已经经历了 5 轮库存周期的切换。每轮库存周期的变化重点有分 化，而从库存周期的变化角度观察，当前或已经到了主动去库存周期的尾声。 当前，市场在低库存状态下进入被动库存调整阶段，库存的变化受订单的实 际推动及行业需求预期的变动影响，而企业利润率及有效现金流亦对库存周 期的变化起到实质影响。考虑到低库存状态下经济新动能的有效带动，新一 轮基钦周期的开启或令行业由被动库存操作向主动补库存转变（从 ...

Group 1 - The investment rating for the aluminum industry shows a significant increase in public fund allocation from 0.01% in Q3 2020 to 0.7% in Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend in investment attractiveness [1] - The core viewpoint highlights that the average PE (TTM) of the aluminum industry has decreased from approximately 30X in 2020 to about 13X in 2024, suggesting an improvement in the safety margin for investments [1] - The report indicates that the pricing logic for alumina and aluminum products remains upward due to supply rigidity, which is expected to maintain high industry prosperity [1] Group 2 - The global gold supply has entered a structurally tight state, with supply-demand fundamentals expected to determine the pricing floor for gold [2] - The report notes a significant increase in central bank and ETF gold consumption over the past decade, indicating a structural change in gold consumption patterns [6] - Historical data shows that gold prices tend to rise during U.S. interest rate cuts, with an average increase of 66.7% during such periods [18][44] Group 3 - The global platinum market is experiencing a structural shortage, with supply showing signs of contraction since 2016 [50] - The report predicts that global platinum demand will reach 7.22 million ounces in 2024, reflecting a 20.33% increase from 2020 [28] - The supply of molybdenum is characterized by strong rigidity, with a projected price increase potential of nearly 40% due to tight supply-demand dynamics [37] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity cycles and inventory cycles in driving commodity prices, suggesting a potential resurgence in the metal industry [38][39] - The analysis indicates that the metal industry should focus on four main lines: industrial metals, new materials, small metals with elastic demand, and precious metals with strong hedging properties [43][79] - The overall financial health of the industry has improved, with average ROE rising from 2.49% to 8.31% and average ROA increasing from 0.98% to 3.53% from Q1 2021 to Q3 2024 [89]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the transportation industry in 2025, emphasizing the selection of sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics [26][45]. Core Insights - The transportation industry has experienced a notable trend of increasing volume and decreasing prices throughout the year, significantly influenced by consumer downgrade [6][17]. - The report highlights that the demand for stable returns is a long-term trend, with the current interest rate reduction cycle enhancing the safety margin for high-dividend highway stocks [3][29]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors with expected supply-demand improvements and high earnings certainty, particularly those benefiting from the interest rate reduction cycle [7][46]. Summary by Sections Industry Review and Outlook - The transportation industry has seen a clear trend of volume increase and price decrease, with consumer downgrade playing a crucial role in this change [17][39]. - The industry is expected to gradually shift from oversupply to a balanced supply-demand situation, with profit elasticity likely to be released [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing price competition and the need for policy regulation to address potential challenges in 2025 [27][45]. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of price competition, with performance differentiation among companies becoming more pronounced [2][66]. - The report notes that the growth of low-priced items has exceeded market expectations, leading to a renewed focus on market share by leading companies like Zhongtong [28][50]. - The competition will likely intensify in 2025, as major players re-engage in the battle for market share, potentially increasing the intensity of price wars [71][72]. Highway Sector - The highway sector is benefiting from its strong cash flow and high dividend characteristics, attracting continuous market attention [9][29]. - The report indicates that the valuation of highway stocks is improving due to the reassessment of toll revenue and the decline in risk-free interest rates [29][60]. - The sector is currently in a high-certainty upward cycle, with increasing focus on dividend payouts [9][60]. Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is experiencing slow demand recovery, with low growth in supply expected to gradually alleviate oversupply issues [29][31]. - The report highlights that passenger load factors have significantly improved compared to previous years, although ticket prices remain lower than pre-pandemic levels [10][38]. - The report suggests that the valuation of aviation stocks may be better reflected through operating cash flow metrics rather than traditional PE and PB ratios [31][46].