[Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·北交所公司深度报告·化学制品 锦华新材（920015） 精细化工基石稳固，电子化学品崭露头角 2026 年 02 月 03 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,115 | 1,239 | 1,064 | 1,209 | 1,507 | | 同比（%） | 12.13 | 11.21 | (14.18) | 13.67 | 24.63 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 172.51 | 210.94 | 198.77 | 257.08 | 344.23 | | 同比（%） | 116.74 | 22.28 | (5.77) | 29.33 | 33.90 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.27 | 1.56 | 1.47 | 1.90 | 2.54 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 39.17 | 32 ...

2025Q4 业绩前瞻：零售承压见底，新业务亏 损收窄 买入（维持） 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,307,627 | 1,380,807 | 1,466,767 | | 同比（%） | 3.67% | 6.80% | 12.84% | 5.60% | 6.23% | | 归母净利润（百万元） %） 净利润（百万元） 同比Non-（GAAP | 35,200 | 47,827 | 26,305 | 28,935 | 35,590 | | 同比（%） | 24.73% | 35.90% | -45.00% | 10.00% | 23.00% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 11.1 | 15.0 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 11.2 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） PE ...

证券研究报告·海外公司研究简报·食物饮品(HS) 鸣鸣很忙（01768.HK） 2026 年 02 月 03 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 国内休闲食饮连锁零售龙头，开启量贩零食 3.0 时代 买入（首次） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 10,295 | 39,344 | 64,522 | 82,200 | 94,385 | | 同比（%） | 140.22 | 282.15 | 64.00 | 27.40 | 14.82 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 217.43 | 833.70 | 2,297.55 | 3,020.41 | 3,732.72 | | 同比（%） | 203.45 | 283.44 | 175.58 | 31.46 | 23.58 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 235.00 | 843.70 | 2,591.11 | 3,225.91 | 3,921.49 | | 同比（ ...

| Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 10,295 | 39,344 | 64,522 | 82,200 | 94,385 | | 同比（%） | 140.22 | 282.15 | 64.00 | 27.40 | 14.82 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 217.43 | 833.70 | 2,297.55 | 3,020.41 | 3,732.72 | | 同比（%） | 203.45 | 283.44 | 175.58 | 31.46 | 23.58 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 235.00 | 843.70 | 2,591.11 | 3,225.91 | 3,921.49 | | 同比（%） | 190.12 | 259.02 | 207.11 | 24.50 | 21.56 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.01 | 3.87 | 10.66 | 14.02 | 17.32 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司研究简报·食物饮品(HS) 鸣鸣很忙（01768.HK） 国内休闲食饮连锁零售龙头，开启量贩零食 3.0 时代 买入（首次） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 10,295 | 39,344 | 64,522 | 82,200 | 94,385 | | 同比（%） | 140.22 | 282.15 | 64.00 | 27.40 | 14.82 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 217.43 | 833.70 | 2,297.55 | 3,020.41 | 3,732.72 | | 同比（%） | 203.45 | 283.44 | 175.58 | 31.46 | 23.58 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 235.00 | 843.70 | 2,591.11 | 3,225.91 | 3,921.49 | | 同比（%） | 190.12 | 259.02 | 207. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Insights - The equity market is expected to perform well, with a projected net profit growth of 50% year-on-year for 2025, and a 16% growth in 2026 from a high base [1][30] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds is anticipated to reach 19.814 trillion yuan in 2025, representing a 67% year-on-year increase [1][9] - The report highlights a significant recovery in IPO and refinancing activities, with IPO fundraising expected to grow by 96% in 2025 [1][14] - The bond issuance scale is expected to increase steadily, with a 13% year-on-year growth in 2025 [1][19] - The report emphasizes the low valuation of brokerage stocks and the potential for valuation recovery, particularly for large brokerages [1][24] Summary by Sections 1. Equity Market Performance - The average daily trading volume of stock funds is projected at 19.814 trillion yuan, a 67% increase year-on-year [1][9] - The number of new accounts opened in the Shanghai market is expected to average 2.5 million per month, an 8% increase from 2024 [1][9] - The financing balance is projected to reach 2.5242 trillion yuan, a 36% increase year-on-year [1][12] - The IPO market is expected to see 116 IPOs raising 131.8 billion yuan, a 96% increase year-on-year [1][14] - The refinancing market is expected to recover significantly, with a total of 950.9 billion yuan raised, a 326% increase [1][18] 2. Profit Forecast for 2025 - The report forecasts a 50% year-on-year increase in net profit for listed brokerages in 2025, with a 16% increase in Q4 [1][30] - The total revenue for the industry is expected to grow by 21% year-on-year [1][30] 3. 2026 Outlook - The report anticipates a 16% year-on-year increase in net profit for the industry in 2026, based on high baseline assumptions [1][37] - The growth in brokerage income from various segments is expected, including a 25% increase in brokerage business revenue [1][37] 4. Valuation and Recommendations - The report notes that the current valuation of brokerages is relatively low, with the CITIC Securities II index at 1.43x PB, indicating potential for valuation recovery [1][24] - Key recommendations include major brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guotai Junan [1][24]

Fund Overview - As of December 31, 2025, the total scale of micro funds reached 7.72 billion yuan, with a concentration in a few leading products, indicating a "head concentration, tail shrinkage" pattern[10] - The top two funds, 诺安多策略混合 A and 金元顺安元启灵活配置混合, account for 50.31% of the total scale, with combined assets of 3.68 billion yuan[13] - C-class shares generally exceed A-class shares in scale, reflecting a higher proportion of short-term trading funds in the investor structure[13] Performance Analysis - Micro funds achieved a cumulative return of 93.33% as of January 26, 2026, but underperformed the 万得微盘股指数, which had a return of 192.21%, resulting in a negative excess return of -98.88%[20] - The performance gap indicates that micro fund investment strategies need to improve their adaptability to structural market conditions[22] Investor Structure - Individual investors dominate the micro fund ownership, with some funds having over 90% held by individuals as of June 2025[24] - Institutional participation has been gradually recovering, rising from 3.50% in mid-2024 to 15.48% by mid-2025, indicating a selective re-entry into micro funds[25] Strategy Logic - Micro funds primarily focus on low-attention stocks, aiming to capture valuation recovery as market interest increases[37] - The funds exhibit a calendar effect, with higher average returns in February, March, and November, suggesting strategic timing for investment[43] Risk Factors - Micro assets face liquidity constraints, with potential for significant price volatility during market sentiment shifts[57] - There is uncertainty regarding the fundamentals of individual stocks, necessitating higher research depth and risk control from fund managers[58] - Micro funds are sensitive to policy expectations and market sentiment, which can amplify price fluctuations[59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 3.37%, ranking it among the top performers across all primary industries. Precious metals surged by 18.02%, while small metals, energy metals, and new materials declined [14][1] - The market is experiencing increased volatility in precious metals due to a decline in risk appetite and negative gamma effects, leading to significant fluctuations in prices [1][4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the non-ferrous metals sector outperformed with a 3.37% increase, surpassing the index by 3.81 percentage points [14] - Among the sub-sectors, precious metals rose by 18.02%, industrial metals increased by 5.74%, while small metals, energy metals, and new materials saw declines of 1.09%, 8.17%, and 5.12% respectively [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The demand from downstream sectors is declining due to the Spring Festival effect, leading to a rise in global copper inventories. As of January 30, LME copper was priced at $13,071 per ton, down 0.44% week-on-week, while SHFE copper rose by 2.31% to 103,680 CNY per ton [2][30] - **Aluminum**: Prices fluctuated due to rising natural gas prices overseas. As of January 30, LME aluminum was priced at $3,136 per ton, down 1.20%, while SHFE aluminum increased by 1.11% to 24,560 CNY per ton [3][35] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices increased, with LME zinc at $3,370 per ton, up 3.09%, and SHFE zinc at 25,835 CNY per ton, up 5.08% [38] - **Tin**: Tin prices fell, with LME tin at $50,600 per ton, down 10.61%, and SHFE tin at 409,000 CNY per ton, down 4.79% [42] Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price of gold on COMEX was $4,907.50 per ounce, down 1.52%, while SHFE gold rose by 4.10% to 1,161.42 CNY per gram. The market is facing downward pressure due to rising inflation data and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [4][45] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has led to a decline in market risk appetite, exacerbating the volatility in precious metals [46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 3.37%, ranking it among the top performers across all primary industries. The precious metals segment surged by 18.02%, while small metals, energy metals, and new materials declined [1][14]. - The market is experiencing increased volatility in precious metals due to a decline in market risk appetite and negative gamma effects, leading to significant fluctuations in prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the non-ferrous metals sector outperformed with a 3.37% increase, surpassing the index by 3.81 percentage points [14]. - Among the sub-sectors, precious metals rose by 18.02%, while small metals, energy metals, and new materials saw declines of 1.09%, 8.17%, and 5.12%, respectively [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The demand from downstream sectors is declining due to the Spring Festival effect, leading to a rise in global copper inventories. As of January 30, LME copper was priced at $13,071 per ton, down 0.44% week-on-week, while SHFE copper rose to 103,680 CNY per ton, up 2.31% [2][30]. - **Aluminum**: Prices fluctuated due to rising overseas natural gas prices. As of January 30, LME aluminum was priced at $3,136 per ton, down 1.20%, while SHFE aluminum was at 24,560 CNY per ton, up 1.11% [3][35]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices increased, with LME zinc at $3,370 per ton, up 3.09%, and SHFE zinc at 25,835 CNY per ton, up 5.08% [38]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fell, with LME tin at $50,600 per ton, down 10.61%, and SHFE tin at 409,000 CNY per ton, down 4.79% [42]. Precious Metals - The report notes that precious metals are under pressure due to rising inflation data and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates. As of January 30, COMEX gold was priced at $4,907.50 per ounce, down 1.52%, while SHFE gold was at 1,161.42 CNY per gram, up 4.10% [4][45]. - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has led to a decline in market risk appetite, exacerbating the volatility in precious metals [4][46]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories have reached their highest levels since May 2025, with LME copper stocks at 175,000 tons, up 1.91% week-on-week [31]. - Aluminum inventories increased, with SHFE stocks rising by 10.01% to 216,800 tons [35]. - Zinc inventories decreased, with LME stocks at 110,000 tons, down 1.35% [38].

Macro Strategy - The report suggests a balanced ETF allocation in domestic equities, indicating a cautious approach due to macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks affecting market visibility and risk premiums [1][14][19] - The Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to experience a sideways trend in February 2026, with potential for recovery driven by seasonal market dynamics, but caution is advised regarding the impact of a strengthening US dollar [1][17] Financial Products - The Nasdaq 100 Index showed a monthly increase of 1.20% in January 2026, with fluctuations driven by macroeconomic data and political uncertainties, particularly surrounding inflation and Federal Reserve policies [2][4][18] - The report highlights the Nasdaq 100 ETF's high valuation, with a PE ratio of 36.15, indicating a reliance on interest rate environments and earnings confirmations [4][18] Industry Insights - The AI and semiconductor sectors are identified as key drivers of earnings support, contributing to a perceived "profit bottom" despite macroeconomic policy risks [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies to validate market valuations and growth narratives, particularly in AI capital expenditures [4][18] Company Analysis - Keg Precision Machinery is projected to see significant profit growth due to increased demand for high-end solder paste printing equipment, with expected net profits of 1.9 billion, 4.0 billion, and 6.0 billion for 2025-2027 [8] - Juchip Technology anticipates a 41.44% increase in revenue for 2025, driven by AI-enabled audio chip sales, with net profit expected to reach 2.04 billion, reflecting a 91.40% year-on-year growth [9][10] - China Ping An is highlighted for its strong insurance business growth, with a low valuation and high weight in major indices, suggesting significant investment potential [12]