Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q4 performance fell short of expectations due to the bankruptcy of Northvolt, impacting its financial results [1] - The company's 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 450-520 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73-77% [8] - The non-recurring net profit for 2024 is projected to be between 260-320 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84-87% [8] - The Q4 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between -14 to 56 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 87-103% [8] - The Q4 non-recurring net profit is expected to be between -62 to -2 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 101-118% [8] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024 revenue is forecasted to be 7,796 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.46% [1] - 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 486.55 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 74.72% [1] - 2025 revenue is forecasted to be 9,843 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.26% [1] - 2025 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 600.93 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.51% [1] - 2026 revenue is forecasted to be 11,662 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.48% [1] - 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 732.69 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.93% [1] EPS and Valuation - 2024 EPS is forecasted to be 0.96 yuan per share [1] - 2025 EPS is forecasted to be 1.19 yuan per share [1] - 2026 EPS is forecasted to be 1.45 yuan per share [1] - 2024 P/E ratio is 40.06x [1] - 2025 P/E ratio is 32.43x [1] - 2026 P/E ratio is 26.60x [1] Business Segments Ternary Cathode Materials - 2024 full-year ternary cathode material shipments are estimated to be over 40,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of around 30% [8] - Q4 ternary cathode material shipments are estimated to be around 10,000 tons, flat quarter-on-quarter [8] - Q4 ternary cathode material non-recurring loss per ton is estimated to be around 3,000 yuan, with a 30% quarter-on-quarter decrease in non-recurring profit per ton [8] - 2025 H2 overseas orders are expected to be released, with a projected profit level of around 10,000 yuan per ton [8] Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) - 2024 full-year LFP cathode material shipments are estimated to be 50,000-60,000 tons [8] - Q4 LFP cathode material shipments are estimated to be 20,000-30,000 tons [8] - 2025 LFP cathode material shipments are expected to be nearly 100,000 tons [8] - Q4 LFP business is expected to turn profitable, with profitability expected in 2025 [8] Market Data - Closing price: 38.48 yuan [6] - 52-week low/high: 26.86/57.00 yuan [6] - P/B ratio: 1.48x [6] - Market capitalization: 19,490.15 million yuan [6] Financial Ratios - 2024 gross margin: 11.21% [9] - 2025 gross margin: 10.91% [9] - 2026 gross margin: 11.22% [9] - 2024 net margin attributable to the parent company: 6.24% [9] - 2025 net margin attributable to the parent company: 6.11% [9] - 2026 net margin attributable to the parent company: 6.28% [9] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - 2024 operating cash flow: 552 million yuan [9] - 2025 operating cash flow: 634 million yuan [9] - 2026 operating cash flow: 904 million yuan [9] - 2024 capital expenditure: -734 million yuan [9] - 2025 capital expenditure: -1,134 million yuan [9] - 2026 capital expenditure: -1,134 million yuan [9]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is stable with steady growth in revenue and net profit [2] - The company's gross margin has improved slightly, and the efficiency of lean management is significant [3] - The company's forward-looking emerging business layout and internationalization strategy support long-term growth [4] Financial Performance - 2024 revenue is expected to reach 6,081 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [2] - 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 934.25 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [1] - 2024 Q4 revenue is 1.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and net profit attributable to the parent company is 190 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [2] - 2024 gross margin is 49.5%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] - 2024 Q4 gross margin is 45.8%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [3] Business Strategy - The company maintains a competitive advantage in traditional fields such as life sciences and trade assurance, while actively exploring emerging market demands such as pet food and new energy [2] - The company is strategically investing in semiconductor testing and low-altitude economy sectors to create a second growth curve [4] - The company is expanding its international presence through acquisitions, such as Maritec in Singapore and Yima in Germany, to enhance its global influence [4] Market and Industry Outlook - The domestic demand for third-party testing services is under pressure, but the company's leading position and alpha attributes are evident [2] - With the adjustment of macroeconomic policies and the introduction of incremental policies, the demand for testing services is expected to recover, supporting the company's performance growth in 2025 [2] Financial Forecasts - 2025 revenue is expected to reach 6,687 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.97% [1] - 2025 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,097.26 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.45% [1] - 2026 revenue is expected to reach 7,463 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.61% [1] - 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,280.65 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.71% [1] Valuation Metrics - Current P/E ratio is 21.82x for 2023, expected to decrease to 15.51x by 2026 [1] - Current P/B ratio is 3.20x, expected to decrease to 2.09x by 2026 [10]

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·食物饮品(HS) 中烟香港（06055.HK） 中烟体系唯一烟草上市公司，资源整合市值 显化空间较大 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 8324 | 11836 | 13277 | 14328 | 15318 | | 同比(%) | 3.23 | 42.19 | 12.17 | 7.92 | 6.91 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 374.90 | 598.77 | 806.40 | 925.21 | 1,017.50 | | 同比(%) | (46.66)* | 59.71 | 34.68 | 14.73 | 9.97 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.54 | 0.87 | 1.17 | 1.34 | 1.47 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 40.87 | 25.59 | 19.00 | 16.56 | 15.06 | *注：剔除收购中烟巴西产生 ...

International Comparisons of Fertility Policies - Russia's "Maternity Capital" program, with subsidies roughly equal to per capita GDP (1:1 ratio), led to a rebound in fertility rates after 2007[3] - Central and Eastern Europe and Nordic countries implemented strong fertility policies, with total expenditures exceeding 2% of GDP and cash support over 1%, stabilizing fertility rates between 1995-2010 and 1980-1990 respectively[3] - Japan and South Korea adopted gradual policy enhancements with low cash support ratios (initially below 0.5% of GDP), resulting in missed opportunities for significant fertility rate recovery[3] Effective Fertility Policies - Hubei Tianmen's birth population increased by 17% in 2024, with subsidies for third-child families reaching up to 225,000 RMB, including housing incentives and monthly childcare allowances[3] - Effective fertility policies require substantial financial support, with total expenditures ideally reaching 2% of GDP (2.7 trillion RMB for 2024) and cash support at least 1% (1.35 trillion RMB)[3] - Central policies should prioritize supporting first marriages and births, as local policies focusing on second and third children may not sustain long-term population stability[3] Global Trends and Policy Adoption - The number of countries adopting policies to increase fertility rates rose from 14% in 1996 to 29.7% in 2015, with Europe and Asia leading the trend[8] - Maternity leave is the most widely adopted fertility policy globally (95.3% of countries), while one-time baby bonuses (26.2%) and tax credits for dependents (29%) are less common[10] - Nordic countries' fertility policies, combining cash and service support, achieved fertility rate stabilization between 1980-2010, outperforming Japan and South Korea's gradual approaches[24]

Macro Strategy - A-share trading volume decreased compared to the previous day, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0 25% to 3160 76 points, down 5 70% from the end of 2024, while the ChiNext Index rose 0 36% to 1982 46 points, down 7 43% from the end of 2024 The CSI 300, representing large-cap stocks, fell 0 27% to 3722 51 points, down 5 40% from the end of 2024, and the CSI 500 rose 0 23% to 5381 70 points, down 6 01% from the end of 2024 [1][6] - Sector-wise, non-ferrous metals rose 1 81%, beauty and personal care rose 1 19%, and real estate rose 1 12%, while home appliances fell 2 45%, banking fell 1 16%, and textiles and apparel fell 0 72% The market turnover was 9762 08 billion yuan, down 1867 49 billion yuan from the previous day, with northbound capital turnover at 1567 33 billion yuan and southbound capital net buying at 65 72 billion yuan [1][6] - The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to insufficient incremental funds and rapid decline in margin balance, with long-term upward potential supported by policy shifts and accelerated implementation [1][6] Fixed Income and Quantitative Analysis - Yushui Convertible Bond is expected to debut at a price range of 115 03~127 91 yuan, with a winning rate of 0 0083% [2][7] - The bond has a total issuance scale of 19 00 billion yuan, with a net fundraising amount used for acquiring Kunming Diantou wastewater treatment assets and expanding the Xindegan Water Plant project The bond has a credit rating of AAA/AAA and a YTM of 1 85% [7][8] Company and Industry Analysis - AMEC (688012) is expected to achieve revenue of 9 07 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44 7%, with etching equipment sales of 7 28 billion yuan, up 54 71%, and MOCVD equipment sales of 380 million yuan, down 18 1% The company's net profit is expected to be 1 50~1 70 billion yuan, down 16 0~4 8% year-on-year, mainly due to increased R&D investment and a high base in 2023 [4][9] - AMEC's Q4 2024 revenue is expected to be 3 56 billion yuan, up 73 0% year-on-year, with net profit of 590~790 million yuan, down 6 2% to up 25 7% year-on-year The company's CCP equipment has achieved comprehensive coverage in logic and storage fields, with 3800 reaction chambers delivered by Q3 2024 [4][9] - AMEC plans to establish a subsidiary in Chengdu with an investment of 3 05 billion yuan from 2025 to 2030, focusing on the R&D and production of CVD and ALD equipment, with expected annual sales of 1 billion yuan by 2030 [10]

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the basic chemical industry, specifically focusing on the caustic soda sector, with a particular emphasis on the supply-demand mismatch opportunity in H1 2025 [1] Core Views - The report predicts that both caustic soda and alumina capacities in China will grow in 2025, with new caustic soda capacities concentrated in H2 2025 and new alumina capacities concentrated in H1 2025, creating a supply-demand mismatch that could drive caustic soda prices upward in H1 2025 [4] - The report forecasts a caustic soda supply surplus of 1.21 million tons for the full year of 2025, but a supply gap of 260,000 tons in H1 2025 [4] Supply-Side Analysis - In 2024, China's caustic soda capacity reached 50.416 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, with the majority of production concentrated in East China, North China, and Northwest China [4] - The market is highly fragmented, with only 5 companies having a capacity of over 1 million tons per year, and the CR5 (concentration ratio of the top 5 companies) is only 2.8% [4] - Due to policy constraints, the actual new caustic soda capacity in 2025 is expected to be 3.8 million tons, with actual new production of 3.1 million tons, mostly concentrated in H2 2025 [4] Demand-Side Analysis - In 2024, China's apparent consumption of caustic soda was 34.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with alumina being the largest downstream application, accounting for 31% of demand [4] - The report estimates that China's alumina capacity will increase by over 10 million tons in 2025, driving an additional 1.24 million tons of caustic soda demand [4] - Overall, the report predicts an additional 1.59 million tons of caustic soda demand in 2025, with a significant demand pull expected in H1 2025 due to the concentrated alumina capacity additions during that period [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies with large caustic soda capacities, complete chlorine production facilities, and relatively low market capitalization per unit of caustic soda capacity are expected to benefit from the supply-demand mismatch [4] - Recommended companies include ST Zhongtai, Chlor-Alkali Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Beiyuan Group, Binzhou Chemical, Sanyou Chemical, Huasu Co, Tianyuan Co, and Zhenyang Development [4] Historical Price Trends - Over the past decade, caustic soda prices in China have experienced four upward cycles, driven by supply-side reforms, environmental policies, and demand from downstream industries such as alumina and papermaking [10][11][12] Future Outlook - The report highlights a potential supply-demand mismatch in H1 2025, with new alumina capacities concentrated in H1 2025 and new caustic soda capacities concentrated in H2 2025, which could drive caustic soda prices upward [13][18] Key Influencing Factors - Chlorine-alkali balance may constrain caustic soda supply, as the production of 1 ton of caustic soda generates 0.886 tons of chlorine gas, which must be consumed quickly due to its hazardous nature [37] - The capacity ceiling in the electrolytic aluminum industry, which consumes 94% of alumina, may limit the growth of caustic soda demand [40] - Light soda ash could potentially substitute caustic soda in certain applications, although this substitution is not expected to occur easily due to various cost and quality considerations [40][41]

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·机械设备 机械设备行业点评报告 人形机器人行业产学研合作持续加码，有望 助推技术成熟与应用落地 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 中国科大与启智共建具身智能实验室，富士康与优必选签订合作协议 2025 年 1 月 9 日，中国科大与启智（芜湖）智能机器人有限公司合作共 建的"具身智能系统与控制联合实验室"举行揭牌仪式。2025 年 1 月 15 日， 富士康与优必选宣布，双方将就人形机器人在智能制造领域的应用建立全方位 长期战略合作关系，助推人形机器人落地现实应用场景。 ◼ 启智与中国科大共建具身智能实验室，助推具身智能产学研协同发展 中国科学技术大学与启智（芜湖）智能机器人有限公司（埃夫特间接控股 子公司）未来将聚焦人形机器人结构与核心部件研发、具身智能运控系统，以 及高性能智能驱动与传感材料等关键技术难题，服务国家战略需求，并积极培 养具身智能与人形机器人领域的创新型人才。双方预计每年实际支付不低于 1000 万元资金用于研究具身智能领域的前瞻性关键技术。 2024 年 12 月 6 日安徽省工业和信息化厅研究起草的《安徽省人形 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·机械设备 减速器主要可分为谐波减速器、行星减速器和 RV 减速器。其中谐波 减速器特点为负载小、精度高、结构紧凑，主要用于小负载六轴、小负载 SCARA 及协作机器人，且是目前人形机器人减速器的主流方案；RV 减速 器体积大、重量高、高负载能力、高刚度，主要用于重负载机器人；行星 减速器体积小、高刚度、抗冲击能力强，广泛用于航空航天、机器人、汽 车、纺织等工业领域。人形机器人选用谐波减速机主要有两点核心因素。 1）体积小，重量轻，价格低：Optimus 全身 28 个旋转+直线执行器，空间 有限要求减速器体积尽量小；此外人形机器人减重和降本是未来发展的核 心方向。2）传动效率高：减速机若传动效率过低，则能量在传动过程中转 化为热能，会导致发热严重。 ◼ 现实应用：谐波减速器应用于人形机器人领域存在四大难点 目前谐波减速器应用在人形机器人领域仍然存在四大应用难点：1）棘 轮现象：当施加过大的扭矩时，可能导致钢轮和柔轮齿无法正确啮合，这 种现象会导致过度振动、加速磨损；2）共振现象：谐波驱动器中的主要振 动源来自于柔轮的连续变形，人形机器人双手需同时运动，若产生共振现 象，会导致两手抖 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·专业服务 广电计量（002967） 2024 年报预告点评：业绩超预期，战略转型 +精细化管理兑现 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2604 | 2889 | 3181 | 3508 | 3869 | | 同比（%） | 15.89 | 10.94 | 10.10 | 10.29 | 10.28 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 183.95 | 199.39 | 329.91 | 379.76 | 470.52 | | 同比（%） | 0.98 | 8.39 | 65.46 | 15.11 | 23.90 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.32 | 0.34 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 0.81 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 56.60 | 52.21 | 31.56 | 27.41 | 22.13 | [关键词： Table_Tag#业绩超预期 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 执业证书：S0600124120012 2024 年 12 月美国 CPI 数据点评 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 美国 CPI 触及短期高点，料阶段性下行 2025 年 01 月 16 日 ◼ 通胀前景：2025 年美国通胀料"先抑后扬"，造成这一走势的原因有二： ①特朗普政策对通胀的推升存在时滞；②高基数、页岩油增产预期、居 住通胀下行趋势料"趁虚而入"，给 1-4 月通胀施加一个短暂的下行压 力。虽然从全年维度来看，特朗普的减税、关税、移民政策将分别从需 求、商品供给、劳务供给层面推高美国通胀，但我们预期其影响不是立 竿见影的：①减税政策落地或在 25Q3。政策涉及内容较多，大概率将 启用协调程序，我们基准预期其将在 25Q3 落地，因此其带来的需求侧 通胀不会在 1-4 月的数据中体现；②移民政策对工资通胀的影响存在约 8 个月的滞后性。历史数据显示，因为工资黏性，劳务供需缺口领先工 资 8 个月，驱赶非法移民后，美国劳务市场或先体现为职位空缺的提 升，再体现为工资的上行压力。③有限关税对核心商品通胀提振不明显。 特朗普上台后迅速落地大范围、高关税 ...