金工定期报告 20250903 证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 "日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子绩效月报 20250829 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 东吴证券研究所 1 / 6 2025 年 09 月 03 日 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《"日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子绩 效月报 20250731》 2025-08-01 《成交量对动量因子的修正：日与夜 之殊途同归》 2022-08-17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ "日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2014 年 2 月至 2025 年 8 月，"日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子在全体 A 股（剔 除北交所股票）中，10 分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 17.93%，年化波 动率为 8.73%，信息比率为 2.05，月度胜率为 76.98%，月度最大回撤率 为 9.07%。 ◼ 8 月份"日与 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [3]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in China's wafer foundry industry and a core pillar of domestic chip manufacturing, with significant growth potential driven by increasing demand for advanced chips, particularly in AI applications [3][7]. - The company has achieved a competitive edge by being the first in China to mass-produce below 28nm process nodes and is expanding its capacity in advanced processes [3][7]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with the company expected to benefit from the increasing demand for chips and the trend of domestic substitution [3][42]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 67.196 billion, CNY 78.062 billion, and CNY 89.606 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a corresponding net profit of CNY 5.18 billion, CNY 6.158 billion, and CNY 7.207 billion [3][20]. - The company's revenue for 2023 is expected to be CNY 45.25 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.61%, while the net profit is projected at CNY 4.823 billion, down 60.25% year-on-year [3][20]. - In 2024, the company anticipates a revenue increase to CNY 57.796 billion, a 27.72% growth, driven by strong demand and improved product mix [3][21]. Industry Overview - The global semiconductor industry is recovering, with a projected sales increase of 27% in 2025, reaching USD 58.98 billion, and a 21% increase in China's semiconductor sales [3][45]. - The wafer foundry market is characterized by high concentration, with the top five companies holding over 90% market share, indicating a strong oligopolistic structure [3][42]. - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI and high-performance computing, which are driving the need for advanced semiconductor solutions [3][49]. Competitive Positioning - The company has a significant market share, ranking third globally and first domestically, with a 6% share of the global market in 2024 [3][7]. - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity, particularly in high-value 12-inch wafers, with a capital expenditure of approximately CNY 54.347 billion in 2024 [3][7]. - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through continuous investment in R&D, with a focus on mature process technologies and advanced nodes [3][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced a "high-low" trend in August, with a cumulative increase of 0.85%. The market sentiment fluctuated due to mixed macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve signals, leading to a cautious outlook for September [12][13]. - As of August 29, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index's price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) stood at 34.6, placing it in the 83.6% historical percentile since 2011, indicating a relatively high valuation dependent on interest rates and earnings performance [17]. - The technical analysis shows that the risk level of the Nasdaq 100 index has decreased to 91.54, still indicating a high level of market sentiment, with a maintained upward trend but short-term volatility risks [18]. Market Performance Review - **Trend Review**: From July 31 to August 29, the Nasdaq 100 index showed a "high-low" pattern, with a total trading volume of approximately $47.212 billion. Initial concerns arose from weak manufacturing PMI data, but the index rebounded towards the end of August due to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [12][13]. - **Valuation Analysis**: The Nasdaq 100 index's PE-TTM ratio of 34.6 suggests a high reliance on the interest rate environment and earnings realization [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The index remains in an upward trend, but short-term fluctuations and volatility risks are present [18]. Event-Driven Analysis - **Macroeconomic Factors**: The interplay between Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations and the resilience of tech company earnings has been central to the Nasdaq 100 index's performance. Key employment and inflation data have influenced market sentiment and policy expectations [21][23]. - **Policy Factors**: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained interest rates but signaled a hawkish stance, impacting growth stock valuations. Additionally, proposed semiconductor tariffs by Trump have added uncertainty to the tech sector [31][33]. - **Industry Dynamics**: The performance of major tech stocks such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia has been mixed, with earnings reports influencing market reactions significantly [36][38]. Future Outlook - **Key Events Ahead**: The Nasdaq 100 index's performance in September will be influenced by macroeconomic data, policy signals, and industry earnings. Stable inflation data could bolster expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting high-growth tech stocks [45][46]. - **Index Performance Outlook**: The Nasdaq 100 index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, with caution advised due to potential short-term pullbacks. The performance of tech stocks will be critical in determining overall market direction [51]. Related ETF Products - The report highlights the Guangfa Nasdaq 100 ETF (159941.SZ), which aims to closely track the Nasdaq 100 index, with a total market value of 27.718 billion yuan as of August 29, 2025 [52][53].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company significantly reduced its losses in the first half of 2025, with a core market strategy further strengthened [1] - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 11.761 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -154 million yuan, a year-on-year reduction in losses of 80.9% [1] - The company’s Q2 single-quarter revenue was 7.858 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with a net profit of 719 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153.3% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s cement and clinker sales volume in the first half was 37.38 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, with a significant narrowing of the decline compared to 2024 [1] - The average price per ton and gross profit per ton were 246 yuan and 51 yuan, respectively, with increases of 4 yuan and 26 yuan year-on-year, mainly due to strengthened industry supply discipline and optimized peak-shifting effects [1] - The gross profit margin for Q2 was 26.4%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting good price maintenance in core markets [1] Cost Control and Cash Flow - The company maintained good cost control, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 1.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55% [1] - The company’s asset-liability ratio was 50.96% as of the end of Q2, with a slight increase of 0.70 percentage points year-on-year [1] Strategic Layout - The company has optimized its strategic layout, further consolidating its strength in the Northeast market through acquisitions [1] - The company completed the acquisition of Liaoning Hengwei Cement and its affiliates, enhancing its influence in the Northeast market [1] - The company’s long-term strategy includes cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, market integration, and overseas capacity layout [1] Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted to 270 million yuan and 590 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 880 million yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 250 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.4%. The gross margin decreased by 25.2 percentage points to 24.8%, while the adjusted net profit was a loss of 550 million yuan, reducing losses by 8.9% year-on-year [8] - The autonomous driving business is progressing well, with multiple chips advancing rapidly. Revenue from driver assistance products and solutions increased by 41.6% year-on-year to 237 million yuan, driven by an increase in mass-produced models and enhanced customer acquisition capabilities [8] - The company is deepening collaborations with major automotive clients and accelerating overseas deliveries, with a record number of overseas model approvals expected to drive sales starting in H2 2025 [8] - The application scenarios are continuously expanding, with developments in robotics and low-speed L4 non-passenger vehicle scenarios, which are expected to form a second growth curve and enhance business resilience [8] - The report maintains revenue expectations of 880 million yuan, 1.43 billion yuan, and 1.92 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/S ratios of 12.4, 7.7, and 5.7 [8] Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue of 312.39 million yuan for 2023, increasing to 883.02 million yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 86.19% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be a loss of 4.86 billion yuan in 2023, improving to a loss of 1.27 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be -7.65 yuan in 2023, improving to -2.00 yuan in 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company is experiencing revenue pressure, but there is an improvement in gross margin and operational quality [8] - The company is actively adjusting its business structure and enhancing customer risk management in response to declining demand and increased competition [8] - The company has implemented price increases for certain channels and products, which is expected to positively impact profitability in the second half of the year [8] - The company is exploring a second growth curve by establishing an industrial merger and acquisition fund focused on new materials and technologies [8] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.23%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 47 million yuan, down 49.98% year-on-year [8] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 24.68%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points year-on-year, driven by optimization of revenue and product structure [8] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of -561 million yuan in H1 2025, an improvement from -1.43 billion yuan in the same period last year [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per share (including tax), with a dividend payout ratio of 118% [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 168 million, 273 million, and 326 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34X, 21X, and 18X [8] - The company’s revenue is expected to decline by 14.04% in 2024, followed by a decrease of 4.99% in 2025, before recovering in subsequent years [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in retail channels, achieving a 5.94% year-on-year growth in tile retail revenue despite overall revenue decline [7] - The company is focusing on channel optimization and cost reduction to enhance operational efficiency and improve profitability [7] - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 4.39 billion, 5.38 billion, and 5.96 billion respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 29.34 billion, a decrease of 5.18% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.19 billion, an increase of 3.85% [7] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 30.33%, a slight decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous year [7] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 4.37 billion, up 92.99% year-on-year [7] - The company's asset-liability ratio stood at 34.11%, a decrease of 2.18 percentage points from the end of the previous year [7] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 6.16 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 4.82% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.38 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.93 [1] - The company is expected to maintain a stable gross margin, with projections of 30.08% in 2025 and gradually increasing to 30.75% by 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see improved profitability in the second half of the year due to ongoing expansion at the mining level [8] - Despite a significant drop in lithium prices in the first half of 2025, the company's resource endowment and cost advantages are expected to lead to improved profitability in lithium salt production [8] - The report has adjusted the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 4.5 billion, 8.6 billion, and 14.4 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 106%, 93%, and 67% [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 4.83 billion RMB, a decrease of 24.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 80 million RMB, an increase of 101.6% year-on-year [8] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 39.7%, down 12.1 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The report indicates that the company's lithium salt production capacity is expected to remain stable, with an estimated shipment of around 100,000 tons in 2025 [8] Market Data Summary - The closing price of the stock is 42.58 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 69.88 billion RMB [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 6.97 for the current price and 113.77 for the latest diluted earnings per share [1][9] - The company's net asset value per share is 25.54 RMB, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 31.44% [6]

Macro Strategy - The report highlights the focus on domestic economic policy changes driven by anti-involution and the Fourth Plenary Session [1] Fixed Income - The report discusses why domestic commercial banks are unlikely to shrink their balance sheets, citing factors such as economic slowdown, loose monetary policy, and the government's call for financial services to support the real economy [2] - It notes that while some small and medium-sized banks may consider balance sheet reduction, the overall probability for the industry is low [2] Industry Analysis New Industries - The company reported a revenue of 2.185 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 1.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 771 million yuan, down 14.62% [4] - The overseas market showed strong performance with a revenue of 954 million yuan, an increase of 19.62% [5] - Domestic revenue was 1.229 billion yuan, down 12.81%, with a notable decline in reagent business [5] BYD Electronics - The company achieved a revenue of 80.61 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and a net profit of 1.73 billion yuan, up 14% [6] - The new energy vehicle business saw a revenue increase of 60.5% to 12.45 billion yuan, driven by smart cabin and driving products [6] Pinduoduo - The company’s profit exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment in the Non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2025-2027 [9] Northern Huachuang - The company is benefiting from the domestic semiconductor equipment platform trend, with a focus on expanding its product line through acquisitions [10] Wan Ye Enterprises - The company reported a turnaround in H1 2025, driven by rapid growth in bismuth materials and semiconductor equipment [11] Horizon Robotics - The company achieved a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 68% increase, with significant growth in chip shipments [12] BeiGene - The company’s core product sales are expected to drive revenue growth, with an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [14] Jiuzhoutong - The company reported a revenue of 81.106 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 5.1% increase, with a net profit of 1.446 billion yuan, up 19.7% [15] Fenzhong Media - The company maintains a steady growth trajectory, with EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 remaining stable [16] High Measurement Co. - The company is entering the humanoid robot market, leveraging its core technology in grinding equipment [17] Tian Nai Technology - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating due to the potential of single-wall carbon tubes [18] Hailiang Co. - The company is expected to see significant growth in the U.S. market, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 remaining stable [19] Sanofi - The company reported a revenue of 2.264 billion yuan in H1 2025, with strong performance in the overseas market [20] Xue Da Education - The company is positioned as a leading personalized education provider, with stable growth in its training business [22] Blue Sky Gas - The company is committed to high dividend payouts, with a focus on improving cash flow despite lower profits in H1 2025 [23] Haitian Precision - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on earnings but is steadily advancing its capacity and channel development [24] Solidarity Hall - The company is leveraging AI and overseas expansion to enhance its business model and revenue potential [25] Shoulu Hotel - The company is optimizing its hotel operations and expanding its footprint, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 remaining stable [27] Changhua Group - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth, driven by new product launches and customer acquisition [28] SF Express - The company is entering a growth phase, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being adjusted upward [29] Oil and Gas Sector - The company is experiencing rapid growth in oil and gas production, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being adjusted upward [30] Alibaba - The company is focusing on cloud business growth and AI investments, with profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 being adjusted [31] Ding Sheng New Materials - The company is experiencing strong growth in battery foil shipments, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being adjusted [32] BYD - The company is facing increased competition, leading to adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [34] Okai Yi - The company is experiencing steady revenue growth, with profit forecasts for 2025-2026 being adjusted downward [35] Maiwei Biotech - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, focusing on strategic drug development [36] United Imaging - The company reported a revenue of 6.016 billion yuan in H1 2025, with strong growth in both domestic and overseas markets [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is actively expanding into new fields such as nuclear power, marine engineering, and environmental protection, which are expected to become significant growth drivers in the future [3] - Due to a slowdown in traditional chemical demand, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 37.39 million, 44.95 million, and 54.92 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 91, 76, and 62 [3] Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 740.18 million, with a decline to 523.44 million in 2024, and a slight recovery to 527.34 million in 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 88.85 million in 2023 to 60.71 million in 2024, and further down to 37.39 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 38.42% [1][3] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.34 yuan per share in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 91.53 [1][3] Market Data Summary - The closing price of the stock is 31.96 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 3.48 billion [6] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 7.90 and a one-year price range of 14.15 to 45.55 yuan [6] Financial Forecasts - The company anticipates total revenue growth rates of -29.28% in 2024, followed by a slight recovery of 0.74% in 2025, and growth rates of 17.25% and 12.83% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [9] - The gross profit margin is expected to decline to 16.19% in 2025, with a gradual recovery to 17.62% by 2027 [9]