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食品饮料行业深度报告:2025Q4基金食品饮料持仓分析:持仓继续下降,结构向大众品倾斜
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-26 12:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector continues to see a decline in holdings, with a shift towards mass-market products. The proportion of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector decreased to 4.04% in Q4 2025, down from 4.18% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 0.14 percentage point decline [9][15] - The report highlights a continued reduction in allocations to alcoholic beverages, while holdings in mass-market products have shown signs of recovery. The proportion of holdings in white liquor decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 2.92% in Q4 2025 [14][17] - Major consumer funds have reduced their allocations to alcoholic beverages, with a notable decrease of 2.22 percentage points in white liquor holdings, while overall food and beverage allocations have increased [17][21] Summary by Sections 1. Food and Beverage Holdings Continue to Decline, Structure Shifts Towards Mass-Market Products - As of Q4 2025, the total scale of active equity fund heavy holdings is approximately 19.4 trillion yuan, with food and beverage holdings at 78.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.01% decline [9][10] - The decline in alcoholic beverage holdings is evident, with white liquor allocations decreasing to 2.92% and beer and pre-mixed drinks also seeing slight reductions [14][15] 2. Holdings Become More Diversified, Capturing Marginal Recovery Themes - The number of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector has become more diversified, with only Kweichow Moutai remaining in the top 20 heavy holdings [24] - The report notes that the top five stocks with the largest increase in heavy holdings include Baba Foods, Yingjia Gongjiu, Youran Dairy, Ximai Foods, and Modern Animal Husbandry [28][29] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests five key directions for investment: focusing on functional health foods, improving supply chains and product/channel resonance in leading snack companies, expanding quality retail formats, investing in long-lifecycle beverage leaders, and tracking sectors with potential recovery such as dairy and large-scale dining [10][29]
2025Q4基金食品饮料持仓分析:持仓继续下降,结构向大众品倾斜
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-26 12:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector continues to see a decline in holdings, with a shift towards mass-market products. The proportion of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector decreased to 4.04% in Q4 2025, down 0.14 percentage points from the previous quarter [9][15] - The report highlights a continued reduction in allocations to alcoholic beverages, while holdings in mass-market products have shown signs of recovery. The proportion of holdings in white liquor decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 2.92% in Q4 2025 [14][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing valuation switching opportunities in five key areas: health food and supplements, leading snack brands, quality retail chains, beverage leaders with long life cycles, and sectors expected to recover from downturns, particularly dairy [29][30] Summary by Sections 1. Holdings Decline and Shift Towards Mass-Market Products - Active equity funds' holdings in the food and beverage sector decreased by 9.01% to 784 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a total market value of approximately 1.94 trillion yuan [9][10] - The decline in holdings is attributed to a preference for technology and other sectors, while the alcoholic beverage sector continues to face downward pressure [10][14] 2. Increased Diversification in Holdings - The number of heavily held stocks in the food and beverage sector has become more diversified, with only Kweichow Moutai remaining in the top 20 heavy holdings [24][28] - The report notes that the top five stocks with the largest increase in heavy holdings include Baba Foods, Yingjia Gongjiu, Youran Dairy, Ximai Foods, and Modern Dairy [28][29] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on five areas for investment: innovative health food, leading snack brands, quality retail chains, beverage leaders, and sectors expected to recover from downturns [29][30] - It emphasizes the need to pay attention to the health food sector, which is expected to benefit from an expanding consumer base and product innovation [29][30]
芯原股份:2025年业绩预告点评:订单兑现收入高增,继续看好AI ASIC产业趋势-20260126
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-26 10:00
2025 年业绩预告点评:订单兑现收入高增, 继续看好 AI ASIC 产业趋势 买入(维持) | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2,338 | 2,322 | 3,154 | 5,661 | 8,612 | | 同比(%) | (12.73) | (0.69) | 35.84 | 79.49 | 52.11 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | (296.47) | (600.88) | (448.92) | 315.20 | 805.06 | | 同比(%) | (501.64) | (102.68) | 25.29 | 170.21 | 155.41 | | EPS-最新摊薄(元/股) | (0.56) | (1.14) | (0.85) | 0.60 | 1.53 | | P/E(现价&最新摊薄) | (366.46) | (180.81) | (242.01) | 344.67 | 134.95 | [Ta ...
芯原股份(688521):2025 年业绩预告点评:订单兑现收入高增,继续看好AIASIC产业趋势
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-26 09:17
| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2,338 | 2,322 | 3,154 | 5,661 | 8,612 | | 同比(%) | (12.73) | (0.69) | 35.84 | 79.49 | 52.11 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | (296.47) | (600.88) | (448.92) | 315.20 | 805.06 | | 同比(%) | (501.64) | (102.68) | 25.29 | 170.21 | 155.41 | | EPS-最新摊薄(元/股) | (0.56) | (1.14) | (0.85) | 0.60 | 1.53 | | P/E(现价&最新摊薄) | (366.46) | (180.81) | (242.01) | 344.67 | 134.95 | 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·半导体 芯原股份(688521) 2025 年业绩预告点评:订单兑现收入高 ...
环保行业跟踪周报:关注矿山绿电和再生战略资源,垃圾焚烧出海新成长启航
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-26 08:24
证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·环保 环保行业跟踪周报 关注矿山绿电和再生战略资源,垃圾焚烧出 海新成长启航 增持(维持) [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2026 年 01 月 26 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书:S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈孜文 执业证书:S0600523070006 chenzw@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《垃圾焚烧新成长:愿为"出海"月, 济济共潮生【勘误版】》 2026-01-22 《环卫无人化系列 2:25 年环卫无人 中标同增 150%,新能源环卫车销量同 增 71%》 2026-01-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 26 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 研究助理 田源 执业证书:S0600125040008 tiany@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 30% 2025/1/27 2025/5/27 2025/9/24 2026/1/22 环保 沪深300 ◼ 重点推荐:龙净环保,高能环境,赛恩 ...
环保行业跟踪周报:关注矿山绿电和再生战略资源,垃圾焚烧出海新成长启航-20260126
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-26 08:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential in waste incineration and the opportunities for companies to expand overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia and India, where there is a projected increase in waste incineration capacity [10][15] - The report highlights the significant increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles and the growth of unmanned sanitation projects, indicating a shift towards automation and electrification in the industry [17][20] - The 2026 strategy focuses on the dual drivers of value and growth, emphasizing the importance of marketization and efficiency improvements in the environmental sector [24][28] Industry Trends - Waste Incineration Growth: The report estimates a potential increase of approximately 500,000 tons/day in waste incineration capacity in ASEAN countries and India, corresponding to an investment scale of about 250 billion yuan [10] - Unmanned Sanitation Equipment: In 2025, the total amount of contracts for unmanned sanitation projects exceeded 12.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of over 150% [17] - New Energy Sanitation Vehicles: Sales of new energy sanitation vehicles increased by 70.9% in 2025, with a penetration rate of 21.11%, reflecting a growing trend towards electrification in the sanitation sector [20][30] Company Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Longjing Environmental, Gao Neng Environment, Sains, and others, focusing on their growth potential in both domestic and international markets [4][15] - The report suggests that companies like Weiming Environmental and Sanfeng Environment are expected to benefit significantly from overseas expansion and high-value projects [15][24] - The report also highlights the importance of dividend increases and return on equity (ROE) improvements for companies such as Huanlan Environment and Green Power [15][24] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the profitability of waste incineration projects in Indonesia is significantly higher than in China due to favorable pricing and operational conditions [12][15] - The report indicates that the market for lithium battery recycling is improving, with rising metal prices and better margins for recycling projects [38][39]
转债建议同时关注高胜率顺周期标的
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-26 08:02
证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260126 转债建议同时关注高胜率顺周期标的 2026 年 01 月 26 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书:S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 2026-01-26 证券分析师 陈伯铭 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 (20260119-20260123)》 执业证书:S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 2026-01-25 相关研究 《周观:新的债市震荡区间形成(2026 年第 4 期)》 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 本周(0119-0123)海外方面黄金似乎正在经历一场"完美风 暴",周涨幅达到 8.4%+,无论公共部门还是私人部门都在积极 配置黄金以应对全球新的地缘逻辑,公共部门"挤出效应"显著, 因此在央行(尤其新兴市场国家)购金潮回落趋势确认、联储货 币政策转向、财政强支出剧本(部分依赖于宽货币)逆转前,很 难给出金价迎来拐点的结论;迎来驻点的概率是否较大?我们 认为这主要取决于中期的"机会成本",即会否出现其他资产的 风险调整后收益率 ...
乐舒适:从中国制造到中国品牌,卫生用品龙头亮剑非洲出海全球-20260126
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-26 08:00
证券研究报告·海外公司深度·消费者主要零售商(HS) 乐舒适(02698.HK) 从中国制造到中国品牌,卫生用品龙头亮剑 非洲出海全球 买入(首次) | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万美元) | 411.37 | 454.39 | 544.97 | 643.78 | 746.10 | | 同比(%) | 28.59 | 10.46 | 19.93 | 18.13 | 15.89 | | 归母净利润(百万美元) | 64.68 | 95.11 | 113.42 | 133.14 | 153.23 | | 同比(%) | 251.71 | 47.05 | 19.25 | 17.38 | 15.09 | | EPS-最新摊薄(美元/股) | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.25 | | P/E(现价&最新摊薄) | 40.84 | 27.77 | 23.29 | 19.84 | 17.24 | [Ta ...
乐舒适(02698):从中国制造到中国品牌,卫生用品龙头亮剑非洲出海全球
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-26 07:24
证券研究报告·海外公司深度·消费者主要零售商(HS) 乐舒适(02698.HK) 从中国制造到中国品牌,卫生用品龙头亮剑 非洲出海全球 买入(首次) | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万美元) | 411.37 | 454.39 | 544.97 | 643.78 | 746.10 | | 同比(%) | 28.59 | 10.46 | 19.93 | 18.13 | 15.89 | | 归母净利润(百万美元) | 64.68 | 95.11 | 113.42 | 133.14 | 153.23 | | 同比(%) | 251.71 | 47.05 | 19.25 | 17.38 | 15.09 | | EPS-最新摊薄(美元/股) | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.25 | | P/E(现价&最新摊薄) | 40.84 | 27.77 | 23.29 | 19.84 | 17.24 | [Ta ...
宏观量化经济指数周报20260126:二手房销售景气度明显回暖-20260126
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-26 06:13
Economic Indicators - As of January 25, 2026, the ECI supply index is at 50.06%, up 0.10 percentage points from the previous week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.84%[8] - The ECI investment index is at 49.83%, unchanged from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.65%, down 0.01 percentage points[8] - The ECI export index has increased to 50.22%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week[8] Industrial Production - The operating rate for automotive full steel tires has improved by 20.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the cement shipment rate has increased by 13.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year[2] - The overall industrial production shows significant improvement due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with various industries experiencing better operating rates compared to last year[17] Real Estate Market - The sales growth of second-hand homes continues to recover, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 10.9% for the week of January 17-23, 2026, marking the first positive year-on-year change since October 2025[2] Consumer Market - The retail sales of passenger cars are expected to rebound from a year-on-year decline of -14.0% in December 2025 to a growth of 0.3% in January 2026[2] - The "trade-in" policy has shown positive effects, with significant improvements in appliance sales during the week of January 12-18, 2026[2] Export Performance - The cumulative cargo throughput at monitored ports in January 2026 is recorded at an average of 25,967.4 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 3.5%[2] - January exports are expected to maintain strong resilience, supported by a higher number of working days compared to the previous year[2] Inflation Trends - The average wholesale price of pork has increased to 18.48 yuan/kg, showing a marginal recovery, while the average price of 28 key monitored vegetables is at 5.65 yuan/kg, also reflecting a slight increase[44] - The CPI is expected to continue rising due to the seasonal demand for food products and the increase in international oil prices[2] Monetary Policy - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) has been preemptively rolled over with an excess of 9,000 billion yuan, indicating a total liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan in January 2026[16] - The ELI index stands at -0.71%, having increased by 0.07 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[13] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[59] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market is still under observation[59]