证券研究报告·行业点评报告·保险Ⅱ 保险Ⅱ行业点评报告 优化长期股票持仓风险因子要求，引导险资 发挥耐心资本优势 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 曹锟 执业证书：S0600524120004 caok@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -13% -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 2024/12/6 2025/4/6 2025/8/5 2025/12/4 保险Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《保险行业 10 月保费：产寿单月保费 短期下滑，看好寿险开门红表现》 2025-12-01 ◼ 保险资金权益投资 2025 年已显著提升，未来需依靠负债端调整打开配 置空间。1）短期看，2025Q3 末产、寿险公司"股票+基金"合计余额 5.59 万亿元，前三季度累计增加 1.5 万亿元。股票+基金合计占比达 15.5%，为 2014 年以来最高值，显著高于此前 12%-13%的平均水平；加 上长股投则合计占比为 23.4%，短期继续提升 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20251206 二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20251201-20251205） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20251201-20251205）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行二级资本 债 3 只，发行规模为 500.00 亿元。发行年限为 10Y；发行人性质为地方 国有企业、中央金融企业；主体评级为 AAA；发行人地域为安徽省、北 京市、四川省。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20251201-20251205）二级资本债周成交量合计约 1949 亿元，较 上周增加 164 亿元，成交量前三个券分别为 25 中行二级资本债 02BC （118.26 亿元）、25 工行二级资本债 02BC（87.73 亿元）和 25 长沙银 行二级资本债 01（85.56 亿元）。 分发行主体地域来看，成交量前三为北京市、上海市和湖南省，分别约 为 1410 亿元、100 亿元和 88 亿元。 从到期收益率角度来看，截至 12 月 5 日，5Y 二级资本债中评级 AAA-、 AA+、AA 级到期收益率较上周涨跌幅分别为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is transitioning from automotive manufacturing to AI technology, with significant growth expected in revenue and profit margins by 2026 [1][8] - The company plans to launch seven new models in 2026, focusing on both pure electric and extended-range vehicles, while expanding its global presence [8][41] - The Robotaxi segment is anticipated to reshape the Chinese transportation market, with commercial operations expected to accelerate in 2026 [8][50] Summary by Sections C-end Smart Vehicles - The company aims to build a "mass production capability" for multiple successful vehicle models, leveraging a platform-based technology approach [14][15] - The introduction of the X9 EREV model highlights the company's focus on long-range capabilities and efficient energy consumption [23][30] - The company has achieved significant growth in monthly deliveries, indicating a successful product strategy [20][41] B-end Robotaxi - The company is positioned to benefit from favorable policies and technological advancements in the Robotaxi market, with expectations for commercial operations to begin in 2026 [50] - The Robotaxi project is expected to leverage the company's AI capabilities and innovative business models to capture market share [8][50] Collaboration with Volkswagen - The partnership with Volkswagen has evolved from joint vehicle development to deeper collaboration on electronic architecture and AI technology [8][24] - The collaboration is expected to enhance the company's market position as a provider of intelligent technology solutions [8][24] Robotics and Flying Cars - The company is advancing its robotics initiatives, with plans for commercial applications of its IRON robot in various service scenarios by 2026 [8][24] - The flying car project is nearing production, with successful test flights and significant pre-orders indicating strong market interest [8][24]

[Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20251206 绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20251201-20251205） ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20251201-20251205）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行绿色债券 24 只，合计发行规模约 207.37 亿元，较上周减少 129.02 亿元。发行年 限多为 3 年；发行人性质为央企子公司、地方国有企业、大型民企、其 他国有企业、中央金融企业；主体评级多为 AAA、AA+级；发行人地域 为北京市、河南省、福建省、广东省、四川省、云南省、江苏省、湖北 省；发行债券种类为信贷 ABS、交易商协会 ABN、企业 ABS、私募公 司债、一般公司债、超短期融资券、中期票据。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20251201-20251205）绿色债券周成交额合计 661 亿元，较上周增 加 26 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为金融机构债、非金公司信 用债和利率债，分别为 298 亿元、287 亿元和 53 亿元；分发行期限来 看，3Y 以下绿色债券成交量最高，占比约 85.22%，市场热度持续 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Changbai Mountain (603099) for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading comprehensive tourism service provider in China, focusing on ice and snow tourism, leveraging its unique natural resources and improving transportation infrastructure to enhance visitor capacity and revenue [6][12][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Changbai Mountain operates in tourism transportation and hotel management, established in 2010 and listed in 2014, with a focus on integrating tourism resources and developing ice and snow tourism [12][18]. - In 2024, the main scenic area received 3.409 million visitors, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, with revenue reaching 743.2 million yuan, up 19.8% year-on-year [12][18]. 2. High Demand in Tourism - The leisure tourism market is experiencing high demand, with domestic travel increasing significantly. In 2024, domestic travel volume reached 5.615 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year [46]. - Policies are supporting the growth of the ice and snow tourism sector, with projections for 5.2 billion visitors and over 630 billion yuan in revenue during the 2024-2025 winter season [54][62]. 3. Transportation Improvements - Transportation enhancements, including the opening of the Shenbai high-speed railway and the new terminal at Baishan Changbai Mountain Airport, are expected to boost visitor numbers significantly [6][54]. - The company is developing new projects, such as the second phase of the volcanic hot spring resort, which is projected to generate annual revenue of 120 million yuan upon completion [6][54]. 4. Financial Analysis - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 1.576 billion, 1.919 billion, and 2.259 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 84, 69, and 59 [1][6]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 806.46 million yuan in 2025 to 1.0046 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [1][6]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Given the company's unique positioning in the ice and snow tourism market, rapid visitor growth, and significant capacity expansion potential, the report suggests a valuation premium and recommends an "Accumulate" rating [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the liquid cooling industry, highlighting the entry of domestic supply chains and the expected growth in market value [1]. Core Insights - Liquid cooling technology is deemed essential for addressing the heat dissipation challenges in data centers, offering advantages such as low energy consumption, high cooling efficiency, low noise, and reduced total cost of ownership (TCO) [3][10]. - The value of liquid cooling systems is projected to increase significantly with the upgrade of chips, with estimates suggesting that the market for ASIC liquid cooling systems could reach 35.3 billion yuan and for NVIDIA systems could reach 69.7 billion yuan by 2026 [4]. - The report emphasizes the transition from traditional air cooling to liquid cooling as a necessity due to the rising power density of chips, with liquid cooling becoming a mandatory solution for high-density server environments [21][31]. Summary by Sections Liquid Cooling Technology - Liquid cooling is identified as a critical solution for data center heat dissipation, leveraging the high thermal conductivity and capacity of liquids compared to air [10][14]. - The technology is characterized by its ability to significantly reduce energy consumption and improve cooling efficiency, with liquid cooling systems capable of achieving a PUE (Power Usage Effectiveness) of below 1.2 [14][31]. Liquid Cooling Industry - The report notes that the value of liquid cooling will rise alongside chip upgrades, with a projected growth of over 20% for rack liquid cooling modules as chip power density increases [4]. - Domestic supply chains are expected to accelerate their entry into the market, particularly as NVIDIA opens its supplier list to include multiple vendors, allowing for greater competition and innovation [4]. Rubin Architecture Outlook - The report discusses the limitations of single-phase cold plates for the Rubin architecture, which has a thermal design power (TDP) of 2300W, necessitating the exploration of new liquid cooling solutions such as phase change cold plates and microchannel cold plates [4][21]. - Microchannel cold plates are anticipated to become a preferred solution due to their ability to handle higher power densities and their compatibility with future architectural developments [4]. Related Companies - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Yingweike, Shenling Environment, Gaolan Co., Hongsheng Co., Zhongke Shuguang, and Jieban Technology, as they are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for efficient and energy-saving heat exchange solutions in data centers [5].

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·光伏设备 杭氧股份（002430） 空分设备构筑基本盘，工业气体业务成新增 长曲线 增持（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 13,309 | 13,716 | 16,169 | 18,069 | 19,822 | | 同比（%） | 3.95 | 3.06 | 17.88 | 11.76 | 9.70 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,216.10 | 922.36 | 1,156.58 | 1,294.03 | 1,484.02 | | 同比（%） | 0.48 | (24.15) | 25.39 | 11.88 | 14.68 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.24 | 0.94 | 1.18 | 1.32 | 1.52 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 22.77 | 30.02 | 23.94 | 21.40 | 18.66 | [Table_Tag] ...

Group 1: Policy Insights - The joint policy issued by six ministries aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, marking a significant shift in consumption policy since the Fourth Plenary Session[6] - By 2027, the goal is to establish three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots, indicating a strong focus on new consumption[7] - The policy emphasizes the application of new technologies and models, expanding the supply of unique and new products, and fostering new consumption scenarios and business formats[6] Group 2: New Consumption Characteristics - New consumption is characterized by a focus on emotional value and technological content, with consumers increasingly valuing emotional experiences over mere functionality[14] - The rise of short video platforms and the experience economy is reshaping both online and offline consumption scenarios, enhancing consumer engagement and satisfaction[16] - The Z generation and younger elderly populations are becoming the main consumer forces, driving demand for products that align with their values and emotional needs[26] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The transition from an incremental consumption market to a high-quality development phase is driven by the need to address product homogeneity and enhance consumer experience[18] - The increasing middle-income population, projected to exceed 400 million by 2025, is expected to provide sustained momentum for consumption growth[20] - New consumption brands like Mixue Ice City, Pop Mart, and Laopuhuang are thriving due to their unique IPs and precise market positioning, demonstrating strong revenue growth[41]

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-12-05 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 金融产品深度报告 20251202：恒生科技 ETF， 2025 年 11 月复盘及 12 月展望 事件驱动盘点： 宏观层面：宏观层面，海外与国内因素共同压制市场。 国内需求数据虽有改善，但 10 月制造业 PMI 回落打击市场信心；海外因 美国关键数据缺失及 9 月非农数据背离，导致宏观能见度骤降，影响流 动性宽松预期并压制全球投资者的风险偏好。在内外双重不确定性下，资 金避险情绪浓厚，致使指数重心下移并进入缩量盘整。 政策层面：政策 层面，流动性支持与产业指引为市场提供支撑。国内"财政发债+货币续 作"有效对冲资金扰动，海外美联储释放鸽派信号，共同稳定估值环境； 新能源、卫星物联网等产业政策密集出台，为相关板块基本面修复提供了 长期的利好支持。 行业层面：行业层面，消费科技板块财报呈现结构性 分化。美团、京东、阿里等因竞争激烈，战略投入扩大致利润回调甚至转 亏；腾讯、小米等通过出海与高端化实现盈利提升。AI 领域技术突破为 商业化开辟新路径，企业盈利差异成为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is implementing a "dual pillar" strategy to enhance its global business development, focusing on solidifying its leadership in the methionine market while expanding its high-value specialty products [7] - The Quanzhou solid methionine project is progressing well, expected to be operational by 2027, which will support the company's global capacity optimization [7] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 13.67% year-on-year, while net profit slightly decreased by 1.29% due to rising raw material costs and product price declines [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 15,534 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.83%, and is expected to grow to 21,718 million yuan by 2027 [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,204 million yuan in 2024, with a significant increase to 1,701 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 20.84% [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.45 yuan in 2024 to 0.63 yuan in 2027 [1][8] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a global leader in the methionine industry, with a strong focus on research and development to drive future growth [7] - The integration of resources from Sinochem in the Quanzhou project enhances cost competitiveness, leveraging location advantages [7]