比亚迪（002594） 2025 年一季报预告点评：大超市场预期，全 球化和智能化强化优势 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 602,315 | 777,102 | 983,284 | 1,157,132 | 1,316,140 | | 同比（%） | 42.04 | 29.02 | 26.53 | 17.68 | 13.74 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 30,041 | 40,254 | 55,021 | 68,294 | 82,111 | | 同比（%） | 80.72 | 34.00 | 36.68 | 24.12 | 20.23 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 9.88 | 13.25 | 18.10 | 22.47 | 27.02 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 33.13 | 24.73 | 18.09 | 14.57 | 12.12 | [Table_Tag] [T ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 23.58 billion yuan for FY 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.514 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year. The performance is generally in line with market expectations, although tax impacts have slightly hindered net profit growth [7] - The company continues to strengthen its market presence both domestically and in selected external markets, with a focus on product segmentation and regional growth strategies. The company is expected to maintain strong growth in its core products, particularly in the domestic market [7] - The net profit margin for FY 2024 increased by 0.7 percentage points to 23.4%, with an estimated actual increase of nearly 2 percentage points after adjusting for tax impacts. This improvement is attributed to enhanced efficiency in resource allocation and marketing expenditures [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for FY 2024 is projected at 23.58 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.41% for FY 2025 and 11.01% for FY 2026. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 6.314 billion yuan in FY 2025, reflecting a 14.52% increase [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY 2024 is estimated at 10.43 yuan, with projections of 11.95 yuan for FY 2025 and 14.02 yuan for FY 2026 [1][8] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on deepening its market penetration in both domestic and external markets, with a particular emphasis on enhancing the sales of its premium products. The company aims to leverage its brand strength to drive growth in the face of a challenging market environment [7] - The company plans to continue its strategy of product diversification and innovation, including the introduction of new products priced below 100 yuan to capture additional market share [7] Profitability Outlook - The company is expected to see improvements in its net profit margin in FY 2025, with a projected net profit margin of 24.12% for FY 2026. The overall profitability is anticipated to benefit from ongoing efficiency improvements and cost management strategies [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 23.58 billion yuan for FY 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.514 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year. The performance is generally in line with market expectations, although tax impacts have slightly hindered net profit growth [7] - The company continues to strengthen its market presence both domestically and in selected external markets, with a focus on product segmentation and regional growth strategies. The company is expected to maintain strong growth in its core products, particularly in the domestic market [7] - The net profit margin for FY 2024 increased by 0.7 percentage points to 23.4%, with an estimated actual increase of nearly 2 percentage points after adjusting for tax impacts. This improvement is attributed to enhanced efficiency in resource allocation and marketing strategies [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for FY 2024 is estimated at 23.58 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.4% - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 5.514 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.2% increase year-on-year - The company expects to achieve double-digit revenue growth in FY 2025, with net profit margin showing potential for improvement [7][8] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on deepening its market penetration in both domestic and external markets, with a strong emphasis on product structure and regional performance - Key products such as Gu 8 and Gu 16 are anticipated to maintain robust growth, while new product launches are expected to contribute to revenue [7][8] Profitability and Efficiency - The company’s net profit margin has improved, with a significant contribution from cost management and marketing efficiency - The overall gross margin is expected to show a slight increase, although growth may be more moderate compared to previous years [7][8]

买入（维持） 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·工程机械 安徽合力（600761） 2024 年报点评：归母净利润同比持平，关注 后续内需修复、电动化与智能化 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 内需阶段性承压，外销引领增长 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 17,156 | 17,325 | 18,273 | 19,297 | 20,402 | | 同比（%） | 8.77 | 0.99 | 5.47 | 5.60 | 5.73 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,317 | 1,320 | 1,399 | 1,517 | 1,637 | | 同比（%） | 45.20 | 0.18 | 5.98 | 8.50 | 7.87 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.48 | 1.48 | 1.57 | 1.70 | 1.84 | | P/E（现 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-04-09 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20250408："科特估"为"国产化"重塑估值——关税压力下的 资本市场战略协同 硬科技实力持续提升，国产化率仍有空间：中国在自主创新的路上奋力追 赶，近年来排名持续上升。在科学、技术和生产的每个维度的复合领域评 分上，中国在所有三个维度的复合评分都经历了飞跃，尤其在技术维度上 增长得最为明显，且增长速度还在持续提升。从产业增加值和海外收入分 布来看，目前中国科技企业对国内市场的依赖程度和国产化程度仍然有 待提升。 "科特估"体系下资本市场与国产化的协同效应：国产化是实 现产业链安全的必要路径，国产企业通过"估值提升—信心提升—资金流 入—国产化率提升—估值提升"形成正向的闭环，资本市场与产业形成产 融协同新范式，有望进一步增加资本市场和经济运行的稳定性。在"科特 估"的引领下，资本市场对科技企业给予了极强的信心，国产化率进一步 提升的过程中，资本市场配合给与估值提升的配合，进一步增强企业创新 的信心， "科特估"正是对中国经济"新旧动能转换"的重定价。 风险 提示：经济数 ...

证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20250408 央行：必要时向中央汇金提供充足的再贷款 支持，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行 2025 年 04 月 08 日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 ◼ 风险提示：个股盈利不及预期，行业竞争加剧，贸易摩擦加剧，政策不 及预期等。 《中央汇金：充分认可当前 A 股配置 价值，已再次增持 ETF》 2025-04-07 《指数震荡回调，短期震荡难改长期 景气》 2025-04-06 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 资本市场新闻：1）央行：必要时向中央汇金提供充足的再贷款支持，坚 决维护资本市场平稳运行；2）金融监管总局：上调险资权益资产配置 比例上限，放宽税延养老比例监管要求。 ◼ 行业新闻：1）国务院国资委：中央企业必须把科技创新摆在更加突出 位置；2）国资委：要充分利用"两重""两新"支持政策，加快淘汰落 后产能和落后设备。 ◼ 市场表现：1）行情回顾：2025 年 4 月 8 ...

| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,012,812 | 2,937,981 | 3,039,996 | 3,002,751 | 3,003,101 | | 同比（%） | (6.99) | (2.48) | 3.47 | (1.23) | 0.01 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 161,414 | 164,676 | 166,843 | 172,062 | 178,656 | | 同比（%） | 8.52 | 2.02 | 1.32 | 3.13 | 3.83 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 0.98 | | P/E（A） | 8.32 | 8.16 | 8.05 | 7.81 | 7.52 | | P/E（H） | 5.55 | 5.44 | 5.37 | 5.21 | 5.01 | 证券研究报告·公司点评报告(AH)·炼化及贸易 中国石油（ ...

宏观点评 20250408 "科特估"为"国产化"重塑估值 ——关税压力下的资本市场战略协同 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 [Table_Tag] [北京时间 Table_Summary] 4 月 3 日凌晨，美国总统特朗普宣布"史上最激进关税方案"， 对中国关税税率达到 54%之高，其贸易保护主义行径严重背离 WTO 规则 框架。随后，中国宣布反制，针对原产于美国的全品类进口商品实施 34% 惩罚性关税政策。中方基于《关税法》《海关法》等法律法规进行反制，不 仅是对美方单边主义行为的战略回应，更是本土产业链实现进口替代、重 构市场格局的战略转折点，在捍卫国家经济主权的同时，为国内产业释放 出可观的市场替代空间。在全球经贸秩序重构的关键节点，国产替代已从 战略储备转化为必然选择，而此次关税反制政策实质为这一趋势注入加速 动能。 ◼ 国产替代的战略窗口开启 国家安全视角下的供应链重塑：在全球产业链供应链面临重构的环境下， 外部环境的复杂性和不确定性上升，尽管国家围绕重点产业链薄弱环节， 集中优质资源合力攻关、提升产业体系自主可控和安全水平等方面已经持 续取得了积极进展，但在当前外部的"围追堵截"的压力下，我 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·保险Ⅱ 保险Ⅱ行业点评报告 保险资金权益投资比例上调，进一步拓宽权 益投资空间 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：长端利率趋势性下行；股市持续低迷；新单增长不及预期。 2025 年 04 月 08 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 曹锟 执业证书：S0600524120004 -11% -4% 3% 10% 17% 24% 31% 38% 45% 52% 2024/4/8 2024/8/7 2024/12/6 2025/4/6 保险Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《保险行业 2024 年年报回顾与展望： 资负共振驱动业绩高增，假设调整压 实估值基础》 2025-04-01 《保险行业 1-2 月月报：寿险累计保 费同比下滑，应更关注业务结构改善 趋势》 2025-04-01 东吴证券研究所 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Summary] caok@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 ◼ 【事件】4 月 8 日金监总局发布《关于调整保险资金权益类资产监管比 例有 ...

一季报前瞻：预计 25Q1 承保端显著改善，看 好公司短期业绩增长与长期发展优势 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 553097 | 621972 | 658207 | 707017 | 757368 | | 同比（%） | 4.4% | 12.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 22773 | 42869 | 46112 | 51110 | 57399 | | 同比（%） | -10.2% | 88.2% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 12.3% | | BVPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 5.48 | 6.08 | 6.64 | 7.26 | 7.96 | | P/B（现价&最新摊薄） | 1.18 | 1.06 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.81 | [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 【事件】中国人保 2 ...