证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20260126 海外宏观与交易复盘：特朗普再度"TACO"， 金银续创新高 2026 年 01 月 26 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王茁 执业证书：S0600526010001 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《持续看多，关注周期行业的长期机 会》 2026-01-25 《广发中证传媒 ETF（512980.SH）： 政策规范护航，AI 产能兑现，低估值 传媒 ETF 走向高质量增长》 2026-01-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 伦 银 伦 金 美 油 布 油 欧 元 英 镑 日 元 伦 铜 M7 MSCI 新 兴 人 民 币 30 年 美 债 2 年 美 债 2 年 德 债 纳 斯 达 克 10 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260126 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 周观：新的债市震荡区间形成（2026 年第 4 期） [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 2025 年经济数据公布，MLF 超量续作，如何看待新的债市震荡区间？本 周（2026.1.19-2026.1.23），10 年期国债活跃券 250016 收益率从上周五 的 1.843%下行 1.3bp 至本周五的 1.83%。周度复盘：周一（1.19），上午 公布 2025 年 12 月经济及四季度 GDP 数据，四季度 GDP 当季同比 4.5%， 前值 4.8%，全年 GDP 同比增长 5%。2025 年 12 月规模以上工业增加值 同比 5.2%，前值 4.8%；2025 年 1-12 月固定资产投资（不含农户）累 计同比下降 3.8%， 1-11 月累计同比下降 2.6%；2025 年 12 月社会消费 品零售总额当月同比 0.9%，前值 1.3%。数据整体符合市场预期。利率 维持窄幅波动，全天 10 年期国债活跃 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·旅游零售Ⅱ 中国中免（601888） 收购 DFS 大中华区，引入 LVMH 深化战略 合作 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 67,540 | 56,474 | 55,174 | 61,618 | 66,074 | | 同比（%） | 24.08 | (16.38) | (2.30) | 11.68 | 7.23 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6,714 | 4,267 | 3,865 | 5,222 | 5,813 | | 同比（%） | 33.46 | (36.44) | (9.42) | 35.11 | 11.31 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.25 | 2.06 | 1.87 | 2.52 | 2.81 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.76 | 45.25 | 49.95 | 36.97 | 33.21 | [Table_Tag] ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [1]. Core Views - The real estate chain is expected to see a valuation recovery in 2026, with a potential rebound driven by policy expectations and market dynamics. Key stocks to watch include high-dividend companies and those in the export sector [2]. - The technology sector is highlighted as a priority, with domestic semiconductor development expected to accelerate, benefiting cleanroom engineering and related companies [2]. - Consumer performance remains subdued, but cost-cutting measures are showing positive effects, indicating that the clearing phase in the real estate chain is nearing completion [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of global trade stability and the potential for fiscal expansion in major economies, which could positively impact sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - Cement prices remain stable at 347.7 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week but down 52.2 CNY/ton year-on-year. The average cement inventory ratio is 59.4%, up 0.5 percentage points week-on-week [6][15]. - The average daily cement shipment rate is 29.5%, down 10.4 percentage points from the previous week but up 16.1 percentage points year-on-year [23][25]. - Glass prices are slightly up at 1138.8 CNY/ton, but down 257.2 CNY/ton compared to the same period last year. Inventory levels are at 4,977 million weight boxes, down 9,000 from last week but up 1,188,000 from last year [49][46]. 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the cement industry is undergoing supply-side adjustments, with a focus on eliminating outdated capacity. This is expected to improve the utilization rate of clinker capacity [10]. - The glass industry is facing a supply contraction, which may provide price elasticity in 2026. However, the current demand is weak, and inventory levels remain high [10]. - The fiberglass sector is projected to see stable growth in demand, particularly in wind power and new applications, despite a general decline in profitability [10]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector saw a weekly increase of 9.23%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which decreased by 0.62% [6]. - The report suggests that the valuation of leading companies in the sector is at historical lows, indicating potential for recovery as industry policies take effect [10].

2026 年 01 月 26 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 67,540 | 56,474 | 55,174 | 61,618 | 66,074 | | 同比（%） | 24.08 | (16.38) | (2.30) | 11.68 | 7.23 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6,714 | 4,267 | 3,865 | 5,222 | 5,813 | | 同比（%） | 33.46 | (36.44) | (9.42) | 35.11 | 11.31 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.25 | 2.06 | 1.87 | 2.52 | 2.81 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.76 | 45.25 | 49.95 | 36.97 | 33.21 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·旅游零售Ⅱ 中国中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Views - The real estate chain is expected to see a valuation recovery in 2026, with a potential rebound driven by policy expectations and market dynamics [2]. - The report highlights several sectors for investment focus, including high-dividend stocks, export-oriented industries, and home improvement consumption [2]. - The technology sector is emphasized, particularly in domestic semiconductor development and AI applications, which are projected to grow rapidly [2]. - The report indicates that the performance of the real estate chain remains subdued, but cost-cutting measures are showing positive effects [2]. - The global trade environment is expected to stabilize, with fiscal expansion in major economies supporting sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - Cement prices remain stable at 347.7 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week but down 52.2 CNY/ton year-on-year [6][15]. - The average cement inventory ratio is 59.4%, up 0.5 percentage points from last week and up 3.1 percentage points from the same period last year [23]. - The average cement shipment rate is 29.5%, down 10.4 percentage points from last week but up 16.1 percentage points year-on-year [23]. 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the cement industry is undergoing supply-side adjustments, with a focus on eliminating outdated capacity [10]. - The glass market is experiencing price stability, with average prices for float glass at 1138.8 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week but a significant decrease from last year [46]. - The fiberglass sector is expected to see stable demand growth, particularly in wind power and new applications, with effective capacity projected to increase by 6.9% in 2026 [10]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector saw a weekly increase of 9.23%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [6]. - The report suggests that the valuation of leading companies in the construction materials sector is at historical lows, indicating potential for recovery as industry policies take effect [10]. - Recommendations include companies like China National Building Material and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from improved industry dynamics and overseas market expansion [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The space for space photovoltaic technology is vast, and the potential for solid-state batteries and AIDC (Advanced Intelligent Driving Control) is promising [1] - The energy storage sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected increase of over 60% in 2026 due to rising demand and supply constraints [3][4] - The report highlights the strong performance of various segments within the power equipment industry, including wind power, nuclear power, and lithium batteries, with notable price increases in lithium carbonate and other materials [3][4] Industry Trends - The energy storage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with new installations reaching 66.43 GW and 189.48 GWh in 2025 [3] - The report notes that the U.S. energy storage market is also expanding, with a projected installation of 80 GWh in 2026, driven by data center demands and favorable policies [7] - The report indicates that the demand for solid-state batteries is increasing, with major companies accelerating their production lines [4] Company Performance - Companies such as Ningde Times, Sunshine Power, and others are expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with projected increases ranging from 50% to over 100% [3][4] - The report mentions specific companies like Hunan YN, which anticipates a net profit of 1.15-1.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 93.75%-135.87% [3] - The report also highlights the expected losses for companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., with projected net losses of 6-6.5 billion yuan and 9-10 billion yuan, respectively [3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on energy storage, lithium batteries, and solid-state technologies, with recommendations for leading companies in these sectors [4] - It emphasizes the importance of companies with strong technological advantages and overseas market access, particularly in the AIDC sector [4] - The report also highlights the potential for growth in the wind and solar power sectors, with specific recommendations for companies involved in these areas [4]

2025 年业绩预告点评：Q4 业绩基本符合预 期，产品结构多元化发展 买入（维持） 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 派能科技（688063） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,299 | 2,005 | 3,727 | 8,148 | 11,602 | | 同比（%） | (45.13) | (39.24) | 85.89 | 118.63 | 42.39 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 515.64 | 41.11 | 75.31 | 516.45 | 843.72 | | 同比（%） | (59.49) | (92.03) | 83.20 | 585.78 | 63.37 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.10 | 0.17 | 0.31 | 2.10 | 3.44 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 30.63 | 384.21 | 209.72 | 30.58 | 18.72 | [ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the vast potential of space photovoltaic technology and the promising prospects of solid-state batteries and AIDC (Automated Identification and Data Capture) [1] - The energy storage sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected increase of over 60% in 2026 due to rising demand and supply constraints [3][4] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of various segments within the power equipment industry, including wind power, nuclear power, and lithium batteries, with notable price increases in lithium carbonate and other materials [3][4] Industry Trends - The energy storage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with new installations reaching 66.43 GW and 189.48 GWh in 2025 [3] - The report notes that the U.S. energy storage market is also booming, with a projected installation of 80 GWh in 2026, driven by AI and data center demands [7] - The report indicates that the wind power sector is expected to grow significantly, with domestic offshore wind capacity projected to exceed 8 GW in 2025 [4] Company Performance - Companies such as Ningde Times, Sunshine Power, and others are expected to see substantial profit growth in 2025, with Ningde Times projected to achieve a net profit of 11.5-14 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 93.75%-135.87% [3][4] - The report highlights several companies with strong growth potential, including Ningde Times, Sunshine Power, and others, which are positioned well in the energy storage and electric vehicle markets [4][6] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on energy storage, solid-state batteries, and AIDC technologies, with recommendations for leading companies in these sectors [4][6] - It emphasizes the importance of investing in companies with strong technological advantages and overseas market access, particularly in the context of rising global demand for energy storage solutions [4][6]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 派能科技（688063） 2025 年业绩预告点评：Q4 业绩基本符合预 期，产品结构多元化发展 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,299 | 2,005 | 3,727 | 8,148 | 11,602 | | 同比（%） | (45.13) | (39.24) | 85.89 | 118.63 | 42.39 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 515.64 | 41.11 | 75.31 | 516.45 | 843.72 | | 同比（%） | (59.49) | (92.03) | 83.20 | 585.78 | 63.37 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.10 | 0.17 | 0.31 | 2.10 | 3.44 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 30.63 | 384.21 | 209.72 | 30.58 | 18.72 | [ ...