证券研究报告 2026年可转债年度策略： 内生时代，博弈稀缺 证券分析师：陈伯铭 执业证书编号：S0600523020002 联系邮箱：chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：李勇 执业证书编号：S0600519040001 联系邮箱：liyong@dwzq.com.cn 2025.12.4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 一、需求：主线叙事 ➢ 当前全球能源网络正面临供给端与需求端两侧同步深度变革：在供给端，双碳目标带来能源供给方式的深层重构，减碳能源 发电比重持续提升（风、光、核）。在需求端，AI算力革命催化耗能端需求质变：AI训练与推理、数据中心、云计算、终端 AI设备（PC、手机等）对电力的需求从量与质两方面深刻变化。两者叠加意味着能源网络"生产—输送—消费—调节"，也 即"源-网-荷-储"的全链条重构，构成未来多年全球资本支出和科技投资脉络的主线叙事。 400 410 420 430 440 450 460 470 480 490 500 4,000 4,200 4,400 4,600 4,800 5,000 5,200 5,400 5,600 5,800 6,000 2025-01 ...

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20251204 估值异常因子绩效月报 20251128 2025 年 12 月 04 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《估值异常因子绩效月报 20251031》 2025-11-06 ◼ 估值偏离 EPD 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2010 年 2 月至 2025 年 11 月，估值偏离 EPD 因子在全体 A 股（剔除北交所股票）中，5 分组多 空对冲的年化收益为 17.22%，年化波动为 9.92%，信息比率为 1.73，月 度胜率为 70.00%，月度最大回撤为 8.93%。 ◼ 缓慢偏离 EPDS 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2010 年 2 月至 2025 年 11 月，缓慢偏离 EPDS 因子在全体 A 股（剔除北交所股票）中，5 分组 多空对冲的年化收益为 15.83%，年化波 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus (600066) [1] Core Views - November sales for Yutong Bus increased both year-on-year and month-on-month, with expectations for a year-end tail effect [8] - The company reported a total sales volume of 4,058 units in November, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase and a 33% month-on-month increase, driven by domestic demand and the "old-for-new" policy [8] - The report anticipates a significant increase in export sales in December, following the establishment of a KD factory in Pakistan and winning multiple awards at the recent bus expo in Belgium [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for Yutong Bus are as follows: - 2023: 27,042 million RMB - 2024: 37,218 million RMB (up 37.63% YoY) - 2025: 43,639 million RMB (up 17.25% YoY) - 2026: 49,941 million RMB (up 14.44% YoY) - 2027: 56,683 million RMB (up 13.50% YoY) [1][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 1,817 million RMB - 2024: 4,116 million RMB (up 126.53% YoY) - 2025: 4,944 million RMB (up 20.11% YoY) - 2026: 5,919 million RMB (up 19.71% YoY) - 2027: 7,031 million RMB (up 18.79% YoY) [1][9] - The report projects the P/E ratio to be 39.54 for 2023, decreasing to 10.22 by 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of Yutong Bus is 33.11 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 73,303.53 million RMB [6] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 5.46 and a one-year price range of 22.75 to 33.50 RMB [6]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is deeply engaged in the precision slide rail sector and is expanding its server slide rail business, leveraging the growth of AI [8][14]. - The demand for household appliances is steadily increasing, and there is a high growth in the domestic demand for server slide rails [8][49]. - The company has a comprehensive product layout and is actively expanding its server slide rail offerings [8][73]. - The earnings forecast indicates a potential for rapid growth in performance due to the expansion of the server slide rail business and the gradual release of production capacity [8][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Deep Engagement in Precision Slide Rail Sector - The company specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of precision slide rails, primarily used in household appliances and servers, establishing stable partnerships with major clients [13][14]. - The management team has extensive industry experience, with all members having over ten years in the company [20]. - The company has received numerous honors and qualifications, including being recognized as a high-tech enterprise and a "little giant" in Jiangsu Province [13]. 2. Stable Expansion of Household Slide Rails and High Growth in Server Slide Rail Demand - The company is positioned within the precision metal connection component industry, with significant growth opportunities in both household and server slide rails [40][49]. - The domestic refrigerator market is expected to grow, with retail sales reaching 133.3 billion yuan in 2023, driven by high-end product trends and government policies [49][62]. - The server slide rail market is projected to grow significantly, with the global server market expected to reach 588 billion USD by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 18.8% from 2024 to 2029 [64][70]. 3. Comprehensive Product Layout and Active Expansion of Server Slide Rail Offerings - The company offers a wide range of slide rail products, with over 700 models, including approximately 600 household slide rails and about 100 server slide rails [73]. - The server slide rails are designed for high load capacities, ranging from 40kg to 130kg, and include features such as drop-locking and tool-free installation [73][75]. - The company is focused on high-end slide rail solutions, which are increasingly used in large-capacity and multi-temperature refrigerators, enhancing its market penetration [57][58]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 0.77 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, followed by growth in subsequent years [1][26]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 28, 26, and 22 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation as the company expands its server slide rail business [1][26].

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20251204 TPS 与 SPS 选股因子绩效月报 20251130 2025 年 12 月 04 日 相关研究 《成交价改进换手率因子》 2022-08-16 《 TPS 与 SPS 选股因子绩效月报 20251031》 2025-11-06 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ TPS 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）： 2006 年 1 月至 2025 年 11 月，TPS 因子在全体 A 股中，10 分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 39.30%，年化波 动为 15.71%，信息比率为 2.50，月度胜率为 77.64%，月度最大回撤为 18.19%。 ◼ SPS 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）： 2006 年 1 月至 2025 年 11 月，SPS 因子在全 ...

Macro Strategy - The macro environment is influenced by both domestic and overseas factors, leading to a decline in market confidence due to a drop in manufacturing PMI and uncertainty in macroeconomic data [1][15] - Domestic liquidity support through fiscal issuance and monetary policy is stabilizing the valuation environment, while industry policies in sectors like renewable energy and satellite IoT provide long-term support for related sectors [1][15] - The consumer technology sector shows structural differentiation in earnings reports, with companies like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba facing profit declines due to intense competition, while Tencent and Xiaomi achieve profit growth through international expansion and premiumization [1][15] Industry Analysis - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced volatility driven by concerns over AI bubbles and mixed macroeconomic data, with strong non-farm employment data coexisting with rising unemployment rates, complicating the Federal Reserve's assessment of economic health [2][4][16] - The semiconductor sector's performance is shaped by the earnings of companies like Broadcom and Micron, which validate demand trends [4][17] - The gold market is influenced by interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions, and the performance of other precious metals, with a significant focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and inflation data [5][18][19] Index Outlook - The Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to maintain a bottoming and slightly upward trend in December 2025, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations [1][15] - The Nasdaq 100 index is projected to experience a volatile upward trend, supported by the AI industry revolution and commercial validation, despite potential pullbacks if key economic data underperform [4][17] - The gold price is anticipated to remain strong in the short term, with a bullish medium-term outlook, contingent on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and macroeconomic data releases [5][18][19] ETF Products - The Huaxia Hang Seng Technology ETF (513180) closely tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, with a total market value of 47.745 billion yuan as of November 28, 2025 [1][15] - The GF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159941.SZ) also closely follows the Nasdaq 100 Index, with a circulating scale of 29.915 billion yuan as of November 28, 2025 [4][17] - The Huaan Gold ETF (518880.SH) tracks domestic gold spot price returns, with a total market value of 90.631 billion yuan as of November 28, 2025 [5][18][19]

Group 1: Overview of the Economic Fundamentals - The household sector's assets include financial and non-financial assets, accounting for 49.2% and 50.8% respectively as of 2022, with urban housing being the largest component, consistently over 40% [3][19] - The real estate market recovery is expected to go through three phases: a rebound in transaction volume, followed by price recovery, and finally stabilization of investment [3][23] - The leverage ratios of the three sectors show structural differentiation, with the household sector stabilizing around 60%, non-financial enterprises increasing to 174.4%, and government sector leverage rising steadily [12][34] Group 2: Policy Trends from Monetary Reports - Since July 2024, the central bank has introduced various monetary policy tools focusing on quantity and price adjustments, with a notable reduction in the 7-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points in May 2025 [4] - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose liquidity policy in 2026, with a baseline scenario of 1-2 rate cuts of 25-50 basis points and 1-2 reserve requirement ratio reductions of 50-100 basis points [4][6] - The relationship between deposit and loan rates is crucial, as the net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased from 1.97% in Q1 2022 to 1.42% in Q3 2025, indicating a need for careful policy adjustments [4] Group 3: Bond Investment from Relative Value Perspective - The 1Y government bond yield is expected to remain around 1.4%, with the 10Y government bond yield projected at approximately 1.7% [6] - The yield curve may steepen in the first half of 2026 due to anticipated rate cuts, while uncertainties in the second half will depend on the effectiveness of policies aimed at economic recovery [6][28] - Current relative value assessments indicate that the attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds has weakened, suggesting a balanced allocation strategy [6] Group 4: Corporate Sector Analysis - The leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises has increased from 155% in Q1 2022 to 174.4% in Q3 2025, but internal financing demand remains weak [34] - The ratio of medium to long-term loans to short-term loans and bill financing is low, indicating a focus on short-term liquidity rather than long-term investment expansion [34] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address the issue of rising revenues without corresponding profit increases, with early signs of effectiveness in improving capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors [40] Group 5: Government Sector Financial Overview - The fiscal deficit is projected to be around 12.6 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of approximately 8.5%, indicating a trend of expanding government balance sheets [3][45] - Tax revenue is expected to reach approximately 17.6 trillion yuan in 2025, with a forecast of 18.2 trillion yuan for 2026 based on historical growth rates [49] - Government spending is categorized into various sectors, with social welfare and infrastructure spending being the largest components, accounting for 38% and 23% respectively in 2024 [57]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·旅游及景区 祥源文旅（600576） 收购金秀莲花山 100%股权，外延扩张逻辑 持续兑现 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 722.26 | 864.12 | 1,260.35 | 1,646.52 | 1,896.41 | | 同比（%） | 55.81 | 19.64 | 45.85 | 30.64 | 15.18 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 151.30 | 146.55 | 226.37 | 350.72 | 437.02 | | 同比（%） | 571.66 | (3.14) | 54.47 | 54.93 | 24.61 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 0.33 | 0.41 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 51.37 | 53.03 | 34.33 | 22.16 | 17.78 | [Tabl ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the commercial aerospace industry, highlighting significant growth opportunities driven by technological advancements and market demand [2]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is characterized by market-driven activities involving both private and mixed-ownership enterprises, focusing on investment, operation, and risk management across the entire aerospace value chain [2][38]. - Global satellite frequency and orbital resources are becoming increasingly scarce, leading to a surge in satellite constellation construction, with countries competing for these critical resources [2][46]. - The Starlink project by SpaceX is leading the global satellite constellation efforts, while China is rapidly advancing with its own satellite constellation plans [2][47]. - The era of reusable rockets in China is beginning, with several new commercial rocket models expected to launch by the end of 2025, which could accelerate the deployment of low Earth orbit satellite constellations [2][34]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on satellite manufacturing, rocket launching, and space computing, with specific companies highlighted for their potential in these areas [2][34]. Summary by Sections Commercial Aerospace Overview - Commercial aerospace is defined as market-driven activities involving investment, operation, and risk management by enterprises, covering the entire aerospace technology development, manufacturing, launching, and application [2][38]. - The industry is segmented into upstream manufacturing, midstream launching, and downstream application and operation [2][38]. Satellite Industry Overview - The global aerospace industry is projected to reach $415 billion by 2024, with satellite industry revenues estimated at $293 billion [20]. - Satellite services account for 37% of the total satellite industry revenue, while satellite manufacturing and launching services contribute 6.9% and 3.2%, respectively [25]. Satellite Communication Market - The satellite communication market is expected to grow significantly, with China's satellite internet market projected to reach 75.1 billion yuan by 2025 and 151.2 billion yuan by 2030 [34]. - The demand for satellite communication is primarily driven by commercial and government sectors, accounting for 55% and 31% of the market, respectively [28]. Domestic Satellite Constellation Plans - China has ambitious plans for satellite constellations, with three major projects aiming to deploy over 30,000 satellites, including the GW constellation, G60 constellation, and Honghu-3 constellation [79][81]. - As of October 2025, the GW constellation has launched 116 satellites, marking significant progress in China's satellite internet development [84].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhaoli Pharmaceutical [1] Core Views - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to fund capacity expansion and R&D for "Wuling + X" products, supporting long-term growth [8] - The core products, Wuling series and Bailing series, have shown significant growth in both production and sales, with Wuling capsule production and sales expected to continue increasing [8] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, committing to a cash distribution of at least 10% of distributable profits annually, with a minimum of 80% cash dividends during mature phases without major capital expenditures [8] - The financial forecasts indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with projected net profits of 6.55 billion, 8.41 billion, and 10.41 billion for 2025-2027 [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,942 million in 2023 to 4,104 million by 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 16.20% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 382.94 million in 2023 to 1,041.23 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 23.87% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.55 in 2023 to 1.48 in 2027, indicating strong earnings growth [1] - The current P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 31.60 in 2023 to 11.62 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [1]