Macro Strategy - The recent cooling of US employment data makes a rate cut in September almost certain, with expectations of a 25bps cut and potential for 1-2 additional cuts throughout the year [1][13][17] - The US non-farm payrolls for August showed an increase of only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a weakening labor market [1][17] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.324%, slightly above expectations, reflecting a trend of declining labor demand [1][17] Fixed Income - The issuance of green bonds in the primary market totaled approximately 8.767 billion yuan, an increase of 1.651 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The secondary market saw a total transaction volume of green bonds amounting to 48.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 4 billion yuan from the previous week [2] Industry Analysis - In the non-ferrous metals sector, copper prices are under pressure due to slow demand recovery, while supply is expected to tighten due to large-scale maintenance in domestic smelting plants [9] - Gold prices have surged to new highs, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid concerns over US employment data and geopolitical tensions [9] - The aluminum market is experiencing a slight increase in production capacity utilization, but overall demand remains subdued, indicating a cautious outlook for prices [9] Utility Sector - Investment opportunities in the power sector are highlighted, particularly in hydropower and thermal power, as demand peaks during summer [10][11] - The nuclear power sector is expected to see growth with multiple approvals for new projects, enhancing profitability and dividend potential [10][11] Steel Industry - The steel industry is transitioning from active to passive destocking, driven by policy changes and infrastructure projects, which may support a rebound in rebar prices [11][12] - The forecast for the company's net profit shows significant growth, with expected increases of 63.24%, 261.43%, and 174.62% from 2025 to 2027 [12] Resin Industry - The resin sector is poised for growth due to increasing demand from AI and cloud services, with projected revenue growth for the company reaching 52 billion yuan by 2025 [12] - The company is well-positioned in the high-frequency resin market, catering to major global manufacturers, which enhances its competitive edge [12]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the IT and Internet finance sectors, indicating a recovery in the capital market and a stable performance for companies in these industries. Core Insights - The report highlights that the market is becoming increasingly active, which is driving overall performance in the IT and Internet finance sectors. Companies are leveraging technology to enhance their competitive edge and improve service offerings [4][72]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in enhancing product capabilities, particularly for C-end broker IT services, which are seeing stable traffic accumulation and performance improvement [19][76]. - The B-end broker IT sector is facing challenges due to a lack of significant demand growth, but innovation and upgrades may provide alpha opportunities [45][50]. Summary by Sections C-end Broker IT - The C-end broker IT sector is experiencing an upward trend in overall performance due to a recovering capital market, with companies like Tonghuashun reporting a 28% increase in revenue to 1.78 billion yuan and a 38% increase in net profit to 500 million yuan in H1 2025 [23][76]. - Wealth Trend's revenue decreased by 10% to 130 million yuan, but net profit increased by 6.6% to 110 million yuan, indicating a stabilization in its business fundamentals despite challenges [23][76]. - Major players are focusing on integrating AI technology to enhance user engagement and service offerings, which is crucial for maintaining competitive advantages [19][76]. B-end Broker IT - The B-end broker IT sector is facing a stable performance with no significant demand increase, as seen in companies like Hengsheng Electronics, which reported a 14% decline in revenue to 2.4 billion yuan, while net profit surged by 772% to 300 million yuan due to strategic business optimization [50][56]. - Jinzheng Co. experienced a 49% drop in revenue to 1.2 billion yuan, but net profit improved by 81% to -40 million yuan, reflecting effective cost control measures [50][56]. - The competitive landscape remains stable, with companies focusing on innovation and service upgrades to enhance their market positions [71][56]. Internet Finance - The Internet finance sector is witnessing continuous improvement in performance, with Dongfang Wealth reporting a 39% increase in revenue to 6.9 billion yuan and a 37% increase in net profit to 5.6 billion yuan in H1 2025 [76]. - The report indicates that companies are benefiting from active market conditions, with significant growth in various business lines, including brokerage and self-operated businesses [76]. - The overall profitability of companies in this sector is improving due to revenue growth and effective cost management strategies [77].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The clinical data indicates an ultra-long half-life for ASC30, which is expected to be launched as a quarterly formulation [7] - ASC30 has shown a 75-day apparent half-life in obese subjects, suggesting the potential for a long-term weight management solution with quarterly dosing [7] - The safety data for ASC30 is excellent, with no serious adverse events reported, supporting the possibility of higher dosing [7] - The Ultra-Long-Acting Platform (ULAP) will facilitate the development of various subcutaneous injection formulations [7] - The company has multiple catalysts in the second half of the year, with important clinical data expected to be disclosed [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 are set at 0.02 billion, 0.64 billion, and 2.03 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a maintained "Buy" rating [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 56.69 million, with a significant increase expected in 2026 at 64.43 million and 203.23 million in 2027 [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be negative, with figures of (144.72) million in 2023 and (358.40) million in 2027 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from (0.15) in 2023 to (0.37) in 2027 [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from (54.06) in 2023 to (21.83) in 2027 [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from a cyclical turnaround in the steel industry, driven by non-U.S. demand and policies aimed at reducing competition, presenting a significant opportunity by 2025 [1][7]. - The company is the world's leading ductile iron pipe manufacturer, with a domestic market share of 58% expected to increase further [1][27]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the company's financial metrics starting in 2025, with significant profit growth projected for the following years [1][43]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry Outlook - The steel industry is transitioning from active to passive destocking, influenced by policies that drive supply reduction and structural demand recovery [7][12]. - Rebar inventory is at a historical low, with a notable decrease in steel consumption expected [13][14]. - The current cycle is characterized by a shift in demand dynamics, with non-U.S. markets becoming increasingly important [20][21]. Company Performance and Strategy - The company has a robust market position, with a projected increase in its ductile iron pipe market share and significant contract signings [27][39]. - The establishment of a factory in Egypt is part of the company's strategy to localize production and mitigate trade barriers, enhancing its global supply chain [39][40]. - Financial forecasts indicate a recovery in revenue and profit margins, with a significant increase in net profit expected by 2027 [43][44]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to decline in 2025 before recovering in subsequent years, with a compound annual growth rate expected in the following years [43][44]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise significantly, reflecting the anticipated recovery in profitability [1][43]. - The report highlights a favorable valuation compared to peers, suggesting the stock is undervalued at current levels [43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has launched a restricted stock incentive plan to effectively consolidate core management members and R&D backbone, enhancing its long-term development potential [7] - The company is the only domestic producer of wet-type paper-based friction plates for passenger vehicles, with growth driven by the release of new energy hybrid vehicle systems and capacity expansion [7] - The incentive plan aims to attract and retain talent, with performance targets set for revenue and net profit growth, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from 206.56 million yuan in 2023 to 915.45 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50.52% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 49.18 million yuan in 2023 to 323.16 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 50.63% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.88 yuan in 2023 to 5.79 yuan in 2027, indicating strong earnings growth [1] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 113.51 in 2023 to 17.28 in 2027, suggesting improving valuation as earnings grow [1] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 5,582.85 million yuan, with a circulating A-share market value of 2,927.51 million yuan [5] Incentive Plan Details - The stock incentive plan involves granting 765,000 restricted shares, accounting for 1.37% of the total share capital, to 37 key personnel [7] - The grant price is set at 51 yuan per share, based on the average trading price over the preceding 20, 60, and 120 trading days [7] - The plan aims to align the interests of management with the company's long-term goals, enhancing operational efficiency and strategic development [7]

Macro Strategy - The recent cooling of US employment data makes a rate cut in September almost certain, with expectations of a 25bps cut and potential for 1-2 additional cuts throughout the year [1][10][14] - Gold prices surged, breaking the $3600 per ounce mark, driven by concerns over Eurozone fiscal stability and US rate cut expectations [1][10] - Upcoming US non-farm payroll data and inflation metrics (PPI, CPI) will set the tone for the September FOMC meeting [1][10] Employment Data Analysis - In August, the US added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with previous months' figures revised down [2][14] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.324%, slightly above expectations, indicating a weakening labor market [2][14] - The labor market is characterized by a "bizarre balance" of weak supply and demand, leading to a more pronounced decline in job additions compared to the rise in unemployment [2][14] Fixed Income Market - In the week of September 1-5, 19 green bonds were issued, totaling approximately 8.767 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [3][16] - The secondary market saw a total trading volume of green bonds amounting to 48.2 billion yuan, a decrease from the prior week [3][16] - The bond market is experiencing a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with limited downward movement in bond yields despite a significant stock market pullback [4][18] Industry Insights - Haibo Sichuang (688411) reported a strong increase in shipments and accelerated overseas growth, with revised profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [7] - Jing Sheng Electric (300316) is expected to benefit from new applications of silicon carbide substrates in next-generation GPUs, maintaining a "buy" rating [8] - Zhongwei Company (688012) continues to expand its platform with new etching and film products, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 remaining robust [8] - Maiwei Biotech (688062) is positioned as a leader in IL-11 monoclonal antibodies, with stable revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 [9]

Market Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index rose by 1.78% on September 8, 2025[11] - The average market capitalization of North Exchange component stocks is 3.471 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 44.715 billion yuan, an increase of 0.656 billion yuan from the previous trading day[11] Capital Market News - The National Energy Administration released implementation opinions to promote the integration of "Artificial Intelligence+" in the energy sector, aiming for a leading position in AI technology by 2030[6] - The draft amendment to the Foreign Trade Law was submitted for review, establishing a negative list management system for cross-border service trade to enhance the trade environment[7] Industry News - Tesla's Optimus 2.5 humanoid robot is entering mass production, with the Chinese humanoid robot market expected to reach 2.76 billion yuan by 2024 and grow to 75 billion yuan by 2029[8] - CATL launched the NP3.0 technology platform in Munich, enhancing battery safety and performance, with the new battery capable of charging 478 kilometers in just 10 minutes[9][10] Individual Stock Performance - The top three gainers on the North Exchange were Sanxie Electric (785.62%), Chuangyuan Xinke (15.76%), and Wangcheng Technology (15.23%) as of September 8, 2025[12] - The major decliners included Hongyu Packaging (-20.32%), Lijia Technology (-13.55%), and Runpu Food (-13.33%) on the same date[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the leading position of Han Shu in the mass skincare market remains solid, while Shangmei's multi-brand strategy is set to drive growth [4][9] - Shangmei Co., Ltd. is recognized as a leading multi-brand cosmetics company in China, focusing on skincare, maternal and infant care, and hair care products [4][9] - The company has successfully built a brand matrix that covers various consumer needs, from mass to high-end price ranges, with notable brands like Han Shu and Newpage [4][9] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - During the week from September 1 to September 7, the Shenwan retail index decreased by 0.59%, while the overall market indices showed mixed results [4][27] - Han Shu's revenue reached 3.34 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 14.3% [13][4] Brand Development - Han Shu has undergone a significant transformation over its 20-year journey, evolving from offline sales to a strong online presence, particularly on platforms like Douyin [10][12] - The brand has maintained its position as the top beauty brand on Douyin for over 23 months, indicating robust market performance [4][12] - The company has introduced several new brands, including Newpage, which focuses on sensitive skin care for infants and has seen a revenue increase of 146.5% in the first half of 2025 [17][4] Future Growth Potential - Shangmei's multi-brand strategy is expected to continue driving growth, with plans for new product launches in the cosmetics sector, including the NAN beauty brand targeting the mid-to-high-end market [25][4] - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is anticipated to be a critical period for assessing brand momentum and forecasting performance [4][4] Market Performance - The report notes that the retail sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 6.15% in the Shenwan retail index, indicating a positive trend despite recent fluctuations [27][31] - The report includes a valuation table for various companies within the industry, highlighting their market capitalization and projected earnings [33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported significant growth in shipments and accelerated overseas expansion in Q2 2025, indicating a substantial future potential in independent storage and operational maintenance [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 4.52 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, with a net profit of 320 million yuan, up 12.1% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to ship over 30 GWh in total for the year, with overseas shipments projected to reach 3 GWh [1] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 6,982 million yuan - 2024A: 8,270 million yuan - 2025E: 15,200 million yuan - 2026E: 21,300 million yuan - 2027E: 27,322 million yuan - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023A: 578.12 million yuan - 2024A: 647.84 million yuan - 2025E: 915.87 million yuan - 2026E: 1,266.87 million yuan - 2027E: 1,815.67 million yuan - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be: - 2023A: 3.21 yuan - 2024A: 3.60 yuan - 2025E: 5.09 yuan - 2026E: 7.03 yuan - 2027E: 10.08 yuan - The P/E ratios based on the latest diluted EPS are: - 2023A: 46.13 - 2024A: 41.16 - 2025E: 29.12 - 2026E: 21.05 - 2027E: 14.69 [1][8]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·环保 环保行业跟踪周报 垃圾焚烧国补回收显著加速，环卫无人化迎 发展机遇 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：政策推广不及预期，财政支出低于预期，行业竞争加剧。 2025 年 09 月 08 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈孜文 执业证书：S0600523070006 chenzw@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -2% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 34% 40% 46% 52% 2024/9/9 2025/1/7 2025/5/7 2025/9/4 环保 沪深300 相关研究 《东吴证券环保行业 2025 中报总结》 2025-09-05 《固废提质增效&现金流改善逻辑持 续兑现，加强全国碳市场建设碳约束 趋严》 2025-09-02 东吴证券研究所 1/25 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 重点推荐：瀚蓝环境，绿色动力，绿色动力环保，海螺创业，永兴股份，光大环境，军信股份， 粤海投资，美埃科技，九丰 ...