Group 1 - The report identifies 2026 as a pivotal year for intelligent driving, marking the transition to a commercial model for B-end autonomous vehicles, with a potential explosion in C-end adoption expected by 2028 [3][45] - Three core drivers for L4 RoboX investment opportunities are highlighted: technological advancements, cost reductions, and operational improvements, particularly in first-tier cities [3][6] - The report proposes a new valuation framework for L4 RoboX, emphasizing the revenue-generating capacity of intelligent vehicles based on their ownership and capability levels [3][6] Group 2 - The past decade of intelligent driving is characterized as a 0-1 introduction phase, with significant hardware and software iterations leading to major capability upgrades [4][11] - The report outlines three distinct phases of intelligent driving development from 2015 to 2025, detailing the evolution from initial high valuations to a focus on performance and software opportunities [4][21] - The transition from hardware-centric to software-centric investment strategies is emphasized, with a shift towards AI-driven pricing models for intelligent vehicles [4][32] Group 3 - Key catalysts for 2026 include significant model iterations from major players like Tesla and Xiaopeng, as well as the acceleration of RoboX deployments by various companies [7][45] - The report suggests a focus on B-end software companies over C-end hardware companies for investment, highlighting specific stocks in both H-shares and A-shares markets [7][45] - The RoboX commercial model is expected to rely on a combination of technological breakthroughs, cost management, and effective operational strategies, including regulatory support [65][66] Group 4 - The report outlines the expected market dynamics for intelligent driving from 2026 to 2030, predicting a shift towards a new pricing system that values results over processes [47][48] - The intelligent vehicle market is anticipated to undergo significant transformations, with RoboX expected to redefine the automotive landscape and create new revenue streams [47][61] - The report emphasizes the importance of hardware sales as a precursor to software monetization in the intelligent vehicle sector, advocating for a focus on user value creation [51][53]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report tracks the weekly data of secondary capital bonds from December 8, 2025, to December 12, 2025, including the issuance in the primary market, trading in the secondary market, and the valuation deviation of the top 30 individual bonds. 3. Summary by Directory Primary Market Issuance - Four secondary capital bonds were newly issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets, with a total issuance scale of 36 billion yuan. The issuance term was 10 years. The issuers included other enterprises, large private enterprises, and central enterprise subsidiaries, with credit ratings of AA +, AA -, AA, and AAA, located in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong provinces [1]. Secondary Market Trading - The weekly trading volume of secondary capital bonds totaled approximately 329.2 billion yuan, an increase of 134.3 billion yuan from the previous week. The top three most - traded bonds were 25 CCB Secondary Capital Bond 03BC (66.381 billion yuan), 25 BOC Secondary Capital Bond 01BC (16.157 billion yuan), and 25 Huishang Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (12.305 billion yuan) [2]. - By the issuer's region, the top three in trading volume were Beijing, Anhui, and Shanghai, with approximately 271.9 billion yuan, 12.4 billion yuan, and 11 billion yuan respectively [2]. - As of December 12, the changes in the yields to maturity of 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y secondary capital bonds with ratings of AAA -, AA +, and AA compared to the previous week were as follows: for 5Y bonds, - 0.40BP, - 1.63BP, - 1.63BP; for 7Y bonds, - 5.55BP, - 4.38BP, - 4.38BP; for 10Y bonds, - 3.91BP, - 2.99BP, - 2.99BP [2][11]. Valuation Deviation of the Top 30 Individual Bonds - The overall valuation deviation of the weekly trading average price of secondary capital bonds was not significant. The proportion of discount transactions was greater than that of premium transactions, and the discount amplitude was larger. - Among the discount - traded bonds, the top three in terms of discount rate were 23 EXIM Bank Secondary Capital Bond 02B (- 0.5669%), 24 Hankou Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (- 0.3695%), and 22 ICBC Secondary 01 (- 0.3295%), with most other discount rates within - 0.33%. The implied ratings of ChinaBond were mainly AAA -, AA +, and AA -, and the bonds were mostly from Beijing, Shanghai, and Jilin [3]. - Among the premium - traded bonds, the top three in terms of premium rate were 21 Great Wall Huaxi Bank Secondary 02 (0.4779%), 22 Great Wall Huaxi Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.4722%), and 25 China Resources Bank Secondary Capital Bond 02 (0.2109%), with most other premium rates within 0.21%. The implied ratings of ChinaBond were mainly AAA -, AA, and AA +, and the bonds were mostly from Beijing, Zhejiang, and Sichuan [3].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that Hong Kong stocks outperformed global investor expectations in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 30%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 26.7%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 26.2%, surpassing major global markets such as the S&P 500, DAX, and Nikkei 225 [1][8][11] - The report anticipates that Hong Kong stocks will continue to rise in 2026 due to several factors, including expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a temporary easing of Sino-US relations, and synchronized monetary and fiscal policies in China [1][16][21] - The report emphasizes that the main investment themes for 2026 will be technology and cyclical sectors, with a focus on innovative pharmaceuticals, suggesting a barbell strategy for portfolio allocation to mitigate potential risks from overseas macroeconomic and political uncertainties [1][3][16] Group 2 - The report highlights that the first half of 2026 is expected to present more trading opportunities, driven by domestic and international factors, including a favorable policy environment in China and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][16] - It is noted that the cyclical sectors are likely to benefit from domestic policies aimed at reducing internal competition and improving global demand, with a focus on commodities and real estate stocks in Hong Kong [3][16] - The report also points out the potential for continued inflows of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks, driven by a "wealth effect" as market performance improves [1][11][16]

Core Views - The building materials sector slightly underperformed the overall A-share market in 2025, with a return of 19.62% compared to a -4.85% excess return relative to the Wind All A Index [2][10] - The macro outlook suggests that total policies are expected to strengthen, with physical demand support likely to increase, as emphasized in the December Politburo meeting [2][15][20] - The glass fiber industry is anticipated to see a resonance between traditional and emerging fields, with demand growth expected to remain stable despite a potential slowdown [2][23][45] 2025 Market Review - The building materials sector's performance can be segmented into several phases, with notable periods of underperformance and outperformance against the A-share market [10][12] - The glass fiber sub-sector showed significant excess returns driven by high demand in wind power and thermoplastics [10][12] - The cement sub-sector experienced a boost due to improved domestic demand expectations and effective supply-side discipline [10][12] Macro Outlook - Fixed asset investment in China saw a year-on-year decline of 1.7% from January to October 2025, with infrastructure and real estate investments dropping by 0.1% and 14.7%, respectively [15][19] - The Politburo's focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply is expected to lead to a moderate increase in total policies [15][20] - The anticipated fiscal spending for 2026 is projected to reach 41.62 trillion yuan, a 2.1% increase year-on-year, with a focus on effective investment [20][21] Glass Fiber Industry - The supply shock in the glass fiber industry is gradually being digested, with new capacity expected to be limited in the medium term [23][39] - The effective production capacity for glass fiber is projected to reach 759.2 million tons for roving and 107.7 million tons for electronic fabrics in 2026, representing year-on-year increases of 6.9% and 7.3%, respectively [23][40] - Demand for glass fiber is expected to remain stable, supported by wind power and thermoplastics, despite potential declines in growth rates [45][46] Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to maintain self-discipline in supply, with a focus on eliminating outdated capacity, which will support profitability [3][20] - The exit of 10,952 million tons of outdated capacity is projected, which will enhance the utilization rate of clinker capacity [3][20] - The profitability of the cement sector is expected to improve in 2026, particularly in regions with significant infrastructure projects [3][20] Glass Industry - The glass industry is experiencing accelerated supply clearance, which is expected to provide price elasticity in 2026 [2][3] - The current state of losses in the industry is likely to drive the closure of high-cost production lines, leading to a potential rebound in prices in the first half of 2026 [2][3] - Long-term policies aimed at curbing disorderly competition are expected to stabilize industry profitability and enhance the competitive advantage of leading companies [2][3]

证券研究报告 天然气行业2026年年度策略 供给宽松促需求放量，降本+顺价盈利能力修复；关注双综业务潜力 证券分析师：袁理 执业证书编号：S0600511080001 联系邮箱：yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：谷玥 执业证书编号：S0600524090002 日期：2025年12月12日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 供给宽松促需求放量，降本+顺价落地盈利能力修复 ➢ 2025年国内供需复盘：需求偏弱，国内自给率提升 暖冬、关税、反内卷政策影响下，我国2025年天然气消费量微增。 据中国石化经济技术研究院预测，2025年实际消费量4302亿立方米，同比增长2.4%。 供给侧海外偏紧叠加对美LNG施加关税，国内自给率提升 。2025M1-10自给率提升3pct至60%。2025M1-10，产量同比+6.5%至2171亿方，进口量同比- 6.3%至1444亿方，其中进口管道气同比+7.5%，进口LNG同比-16.3%；自给率60%，同比提升3pct。进口量下降源于对美LNG施加关税、国内气价不振国 际市场存在转口套利空间。对美LNG加征25%关税导致2025M1-11美气回国平均价差从0.47 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·休闲食品 盐津铺子（002847） 开启新征程，海阔凭鱼跃 2025 年 12 月 12 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,115 | 5,304 | 5,936 | 7,050 | 8,165 | | 同比（%） | 42.22 | 28.89 | 11.92 | 18.76 | 15.81 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 505.77 | 639.95 | 800.12 | 1,005.50 | 1,223.36 | | 同比（%） | 67.76 | 26.53 | 25.03 | 25.67 | 21.67 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.85 | 2.35 | 2.93 | 3.69 | 4.49 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 37.46 | 29.60 | 23.68 | 18.84 | 15.49 | 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书 ...

Group 1: Commercial Vehicles - The core conclusion for heavy trucks indicates that exports will surpass domestic sales in 2026, with a focus on leading exporters [2] - In 2025, the total wholesale volume for heavy trucks is expected to reach 1.143 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, with domestic sales at 814,000 units (+35.2%) and exports at 332,000 units (+14.3%) [11][12] - The penetration rate of electric heavy trucks is projected to rise to 30%-35% in 2026, with natural gas trucks also expected to gain market share [2][11] Group 2: Buses - The bus sector is expected to see stronger external demand than internal demand in 2026, with a projected growth of 3% for domestic sales and 30% for exports [3][22] - The key players in the bus industry, such as Yutong and King Long, are anticipated to benefit from the recovery in both domestic and overseas markets [3][22] - The overall profitability of the bus sector is expected to improve, driven by the recovery in demand and the performance of leading companies [23][39] Group 3: Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is projected to achieve a total sales volume of 19.38 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to grow by 31% [4][29] - Exports of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to reach 830,000 units in 2026, reflecting a 50% increase compared to the previous year [4][29] - Leading motorcycle manufacturers, such as Chunfeng and Longxin, are expected to benefit from the continued growth in exports and large-displacement motorcycle sales [4][30]

Group 1: AI Applications - The report is optimistic about AI applications in cloud services and entertainment sectors, predicting significant productivity releases in 2026. Key areas of focus include programming, search, and office productivity, with a notable increase in token consumption across these fields [3][17][21] - Major obstacles to the large-scale deployment of AI agents include reliability issues, severe product homogeneity, and unresolved cost problems. The report emphasizes that the reliability of AI agents is crucial, especially in high-stakes environments like customer service [22][23][24] - The competition among major cloud service providers is expected to intensify, with cloud vendors being the most certain beneficiaries of the AI market growth. Vertical agents focusing on specific industries are likely to establish more viable business models compared to general-purpose agents [30][25] Group 2: Gaming Industry - The gaming industry is entering a cycle of gameplay innovation, with a long-term potential for female-oriented gaming segments. The report highlights the transition from simple romance simulations to more complex narratives incorporating elements like strategy and science fiction [4][62] - The report notes that the gaming market is stabilizing, with a slight decline in revenue year-on-year but a recovery in the quarter-on-quarter performance due to new game launches and the sustained operation of mature products [58][62] - AI is expected to enhance gaming experiences by introducing new interaction forms and personalizing gameplay based on player preferences, which could significantly improve player engagement and satisfaction [46][44] Group 3: Hong Kong Internet Sector - The report indicates that Hong Kong's leading internet companies are currently undervalued, with adjusted profit valuation multiples ranging from 15 to 20 times for major players. E-commerce platforms like JD and Pinduoduo are valued around 10 times, while social and content platforms like Tencent and Bilibili are valued around 20 times [5][30] - The report recommends several companies in the Hong Kong internet sector, including Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group, and Meituan-W, citing their potential for growth driven by AI-driven advertising and stable gaming revenues [5][30]

Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to gradually move towards expansion in 2026, with economic growth potentially higher than in 2025, characterized by a front-loaded low and a back-loaded high throughout the year [5][15]. - The first quarter of 2026 may represent a relative low point due to the prolonged government shutdown in October 2025, but subsequent recovery is anticipated driven by fiscal and monetary policy support [15][37]. - Consumer spending is projected to steadily recover, supported by the gradual realization of benefits from the "Big Beautiful Act" (OBBBA), which will reduce tax burdens and increase disposable income [15][20]. Market Performance - The US stock market is expected to see further gains in 2026, primarily driven by earnings growth, with an overall EPS increase of over 12% anticipated [5][43]. - The technology sector is expected to continue its dominance in the first half of 2026, while a shift towards cyclical sectors is anticipated in the latter half as economic recovery progresses [49][50]. Sector Analysis - Small-cap stocks are expected to show greater elasticity in 2026, supported by lower borrowing costs and pent-up demand as the economy enters the early stages of recovery [5][49]. - The technology sector is projected to maintain its leading position in the first half of the year, with significant contributions from earnings, while the second half may present risks due to potential stagnation in capital expenditures [49][50]. - Cyclical sectors such as industrials, real estate, consumer discretionary, and financials are expected to benefit from the economic recovery, particularly as real estate begins to thaw and new home sales show signs of improvement [5][49][57].

Core Insights - The report is optimistic about the recovery of upstream orders and emphasizes the importance of brands that can adapt and innovate in response to consumer needs [2][19]. Brand Apparel - The domestic brand apparel industry has entered a phase of stock competition, with limited growth opportunities. The performance of leading brands is increasingly reliant on their ability to attract consumers rather than on channel expansion [2][19]. - Three key areas for growth are identified: new home textiles, functional apparel, and strongly differentiated brands. Notable recommendations include: - New Home Textiles: Driven by the sleep economy and self-care consumption, brands like Mercury Home Textiles and Luolai Life are expected to perform well [2]. - Functional Apparel: Brands such as Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Bosideng are positioned to benefit from the growing health and outdoor lifestyle trends [2]. - Strongly Differentiated Brands: Companies like Cotton Era, focusing on 100% cotton products, are experiencing rapid growth [2]. - High dividend stocks recommended include Hailan Home, Luolai Life, and Semir Apparel [2]. Textile Manufacturing - The report notes a decrease in uncertainty regarding tariff policies, stabilization in European and American retail, and low inventory levels among international brands, suggesting a potential recovery in upstream orders [2][19]. - Recommendations for textile manufacturing companies include Shenzhou International, Weixing Co., and Huali Group, with a focus on high dividend stocks like Yuyuan Group and Jingyuan International [2]. Market Performance Review - The textile and apparel sector has seen a slight underperformance compared to the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 12.45% as of December 9, 2025, compared to a 16.84% increase in the CSI 300 index [7][10]. - The apparel and home textile segments have shown similar performance, while the accessories segment has outperformed, with a 17.1% increase [13][14]. Consumer Environment - The domestic consumption environment remains weak, with apparel retail performance lagging behind overall retail growth. For instance, the cumulative year-on-year growth for apparel retail was only 2.9% from January to October 2025 [27][23]. - The consumer confidence index has shown a slight recovery but remains at historical low levels, indicating ongoing challenges in consumer spending [25][27]. Company Performance - The report highlights that many key apparel companies have experienced revenue declines, while a few have maintained growth. For example, companies like Anta, Li Ning, and Bosideng have shown consistent revenue expansion [30][32]. - The profitability of the brand apparel sector has been under pressure, with net profits not keeping pace with revenue growth in many cases [28][32].