Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.03%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.90%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.04 percentage points from August, while the demand index increased by 0.01 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.90%, unchanged from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.71%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] Loan and Financing Trends - The ELI index is at -0.68%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a potential decrease in new loans for August[11] - New loans in August are expected to be between 800 billion and 850 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 100 billion to 50 billion CNY[15] - Government bond financing in August is projected at 1.33 trillion CNY, down 510 billion CNY year-on-year[15] Real Estate Market - As of September 6, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has turned positive year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in real estate sales[7] - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai aim to ease purchase restrictions, which may stabilize the real estate market[7] Industrial Production and Consumption - The operating rate for automotive tires has decreased, with full steel tires at 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points from last week[16] - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.91 CNY/kg, down 0.05 CNY/kg from last week, while the price of key monitored vegetables is 5.08 CNY/kg, up 0.17 CNY/kg[40] Export and Shipping - The Shanghai export container freight index is at 1444.44 points, down 0.62 points from last week, indicating a slight decline in export shipping costs[34] - South Korea's export growth rate for August is 1.30%, down 4.60 percentage points from July, reflecting a slowdown in export performance[34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1]. Core Insights - The public fund fee reform's third phase has commenced, and listed insurance companies continue to increase their allocation to OCI stocks [1]. - The non-bank financial sector has shown a decline of 5.05% recently, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.81% [10]. - The insurance sector's net profit has generally increased, with a notable growth in new business value (NBV) for life insurance [24][25]. - The securities sector has experienced a significant increase in trading volume, with a year-on-year rise of 223.25% in daily average stock trading value [16]. - The multi-financial sector is transitioning into a stable growth phase, with trust assets continuing to grow despite a decline in profits [35]. Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sector Performance - All sub-sectors of non-bank financials underperformed the CSI 300 index in the recent five trading days, with declines of 4.07% in insurance, 5.29% in securities, and 6.32% in multi-financials [10][12]. Securities Sector - Trading volume has significantly increased, with a daily average stock trading value of CNY 29,496 billion as of September 5, 2025, marking a 223.25% increase year-on-year [16]. - The margin balance reached CNY 22,795 billion, up 63.74% year-on-year [16]. - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is projected at 1.3x for 2025 [22]. Insurance Sector - Listed insurance companies reported a total net profit of CNY 1,782 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year increase [24]. - The NBV for life insurance has shown substantial growth, with increases of 20% to 72% across major companies [25]. - The insurance sector's valuation is currently between 0.62-0.93 times the expected P/EV for 2025, indicating a historical low [34]. Multi-Financial Sector - The trust industry saw its asset scale reach CNY 29.56 trillion by the end of 2024, a 23.58% increase year-on-year, despite a 45.5% drop in total profits [35]. - The futures market experienced a trading volume of 10.59 billion contracts in July 2025, with a transaction value of CNY 71.31 trillion, representing year-on-year growth of 48.89% and 36.03%, respectively [41]. Industry Ranking and Recommendations - The report ranks the sectors as follows: Insurance > Securities > Other Multi-Financials, with key recommendations including China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [51].

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250907 周观： 从股债性价比角度看债市点位 （2025 年第 35 期） [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 2025 年 09 月 07 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 《转债市场迎来新能源标的配置窗 口》 2025-09-07 《 二 级 资 本 债 周 度 数 据 跟 踪 （20250901-20250905）》 2025-09-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 40 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ◼ 9 月以来，股市出现震荡回调，债券收益率略受益于"股债跷跷板"效 应而下行，但并不明显，如何评估股债性价比？本 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The third phase of public fund fee reduction has been implemented, expected to result in annual savings of 30 billion, with a total of 50 billion saved across three phases [1] - The report outlines the regulatory changes by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) regarding the management of sales fees for public funds, which includes lowering subscription and service fees [4] - The fee reduction is expected to significantly impact the banking channels, while third-party and brokerage firms have already been offering lower rates [4] - The overall fee reduction from the third phase is estimated at 30 billion, representing a 34% decrease based on average data from the past three years [4] - The report emphasizes the optimization of the public fund sales ecosystem to encourage long-term holding by investors [4] - The CSRC has approved the operation of a direct sales service platform for institutional investors, which is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce operational costs [4] - The cumulative fee reduction across all three phases is projected to be 50 billion, with the first two phases contributing 14 billion and 6.8 billion respectively [4] Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The CSRC has revised the regulations governing public fund sales fees, including reductions in subscription and service fees for various fund types [4] - The maximum rates for subscription and service fees have been lowered significantly, with the aim of promoting investor retention [4] Impact on Industry - The overall impact on brokerage firms is expected to be limited, as the majority of front-end fees are already discounted [4] - The report notes that the reduction in sales service fees will have a minor effect on brokerage revenues, as these fees constitute a small percentage of overall income [4]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 气温下降导致需求走弱，煤价略有下行 2025 年 09 月 07 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（9 月 1 日至 9 月 5 日）港口动力煤现货价环比下跌 11 元/吨，报 收 679 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 182.14 万吨，环比上周下降 0.84 万吨，降幅 0.46%。本周产地供应较为稳定，港口供应量略有下降。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 183.93 万吨，环比上周下降 5.74 万吨，降幅 3.03%；日均锚地船舶共 77.7 艘，环比上周下降 28 艘，降 幅 26.68%。库存端，环渤海四港区库存端 2271.00 万吨，环比上周减少 37 万吨，降幅 1.60% 。港口本周整体库存绝对值略有下行，但煤价下 跌，主要由于旺季逐步进入尾声，气温下降下游需求略显疲弱导致。 我们分析认为：目前伴随煤炭行业逐步进入旺季尾声，全国气温明显下 降，居民用电需求逐步减弱，供强需弱下库存去化短期或面临一定压 力，预计短期煤价维持震荡态势。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The introduction of silicon carbide (SiC) as an intermediary layer in NVIDIA's next-generation GPU is expected to open new growth opportunities for the company [7] - The company has successfully overcome key challenges in growing 12-inch SiC crystals, achieving a significant technological breakthrough [7] - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 1.01 billion, 1.25 billion, and 1.54 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 46, 37, and 30 times [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 17,983 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 69.04% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 4,558 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.85% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is expected to be 3.48 RMB per share [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 35.00 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 45.83 billion RMB [5] - The price-to-book ratio is 2.67 [5] Financial Ratios - The company's asset-liability ratio is reported at 34.88% [6] - The projected gross profit margin for 2024 is 33.35% [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 15.10% for 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, specifically recommending investments in PCB equipment for import substitution, technological iteration, and industry expansion logic, as well as solid-state battery equipment for accelerated industrialization [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant increase in demand for high-end HDI (High-Density Interconnect) PCB equipment driven by the surge in AI computing server requirements, projecting a 33% year-on-year growth in the PCB market for servers and storage in 2024, reaching a value of 10.916 billion yuan [2][3]. - The solid-state battery equipment sector is identified as a key area for investment, with isostatic pressing technology being crucial for mass production, offering potential for industrialization due to its efficiency in achieving densification [4][21]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the silicon carbide (SiC) market, particularly with NVIDIA's new generation of GPUs expected to adopt SiC substrates, which could significantly enhance thermal management and reduce packaging size [5][28]. Summary by Sections PCB Equipment - The demand for drilling equipment is expected to rise significantly due to the increasing complexity of HDI boards, with domestic PCB manufacturers like Shenghong Technology and Huitian Electronics planning capacity expansions [2][3]. - The global PCB equipment market is projected to reach 51 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, driven by the AI computing infrastructure [29]. - Key players in the PCB equipment sector include Dazhu CNC, Chip Quik, and Dongwei Technology, with recommendations to focus on drilling, exposure, and plating segments [31]. Solid-State Battery Equipment - Isostatic pressing technology is highlighted as a critical bottleneck for solid-state battery mass production, with domestic and international players accelerating the industrialization of this technology [4][21]. - The report suggests that the value of isostatic pressing equipment in solid-state battery production lines could reach 2.9 billion yuan by 2029, indicating substantial growth potential [21]. Silicon Carbide (SiC) - NVIDIA's plans to integrate SiC substrates into its next-generation GPU chips are expected to create new growth opportunities in the SiC market, with significant substrate demand anticipated [5][28]. Engineering Machinery - The report notes a strong recovery in excavator sales, with a 17.2% year-on-year increase in sales from January to August 2025, indicating robust domestic and export demand [6][10]. - Major infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River project, are expected to drive further demand for engineering machinery, with a projected market impact of approximately 108 billion yuan [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.666 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.13%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 146 million yuan, a decrease of 6.01% year-on-year, primarily due to foreign exchange losses from the appreciation of the RMB against the USD. Excluding this factor, the company's operational profitability, revenue, and net profit all showed positive growth [7] - The revenue from the decoration and building materials segment grew by 38% year-on-year, accounting for 37.27% of total revenue in H1 2025. The company’s product mix, including high-value home consumer goods, contributed to over 75% of total revenue [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.1 yuan per share, totaling 19 million yuan, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [7] - The company has a global marketing presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 88.80% of total revenue in H1 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 27.84% [7] Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue of 2.924 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 307 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 57.07% compared to 2023 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.58 yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.42 yuan by 2027, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 16.86 in 2024 to 11.02 in 2027 [1][8] - The company’s operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 245 million yuan, an increase of 17.50% year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [7]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the environmental industry, highlighting robust operational growth and improved cash flow, particularly in waste incineration and water services [2][6]. Core Insights - The environmental industry is experiencing steady growth in operations and cash flow improvements, with significant opportunities arising from the automation and electrification of sanitation services [5][29]. - Waste incineration companies have shown enhanced return on equity (ROE) and cash flow, leading to consistent dividend payouts [3][6]. - Water services are witnessing stable performance with declining capital expenditures and accelerated water price increases [4][6]. - The sanitation sector is rapidly adopting electric vehicles, with a notable increase in sales of new energy sanitation equipment [5][6]. Summary by Sections Waste Incineration - The average waste incineration companies reported a 1.8% increase in waste processed per ton and a 1.2% increase in electricity sold per ton in the first half of 2025 [6]. - Significant growth in heating services was observed, with top companies like Haichuang and Green Power showing increases of 170% and 115% respectively [6]. - The sector is focusing on operational efficiency and expanding B-end and C-end services to enhance profitability and cash flow [6]. Water Services - The water services sector reported a 2% decline in revenue but a 6% increase in net profit in the first half of 2025, with notable performance from Zhongshan Public Utilities due to high investment returns [14][15]. - Major cities have implemented water price increases, which are expected to drive a new round of water price reforms [6][15]. - Key recommendations include companies like Yuehai Investment and Xingrong Environment, which are expected to benefit from price adjustments and stable growth [6][15]. Sanitation - The penetration rate of electric sanitation vehicles is accelerating, with a 77.6% increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles in the first half of 2025 [5][6]. - The rise of automation in sanitation is evident, with over 290 new projects in the autonomous driving sector, of which more than 90 are focused on automated cleaning [6]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Yutong Heavy Industry and others that are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [6].

Group 1 - Developed markets are expected to outperform emerging markets following a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve, with historical data indicating greater upward elasticity in developed markets during the first 1-3 months after such signals [2][3][4] - The S&P 500 has historically shown an average increase of 1.3% in the month following dovish meetings, with a larger average increase of 5.5% over three months [2][5] - Large-cap stocks are generally favored over small-cap stocks in the aftermath of preventive rate cuts, although small-cap stocks may show significant improvement if economic indicators point to recovery [3][4] Group 2 - Growth sectors such as information technology and healthcare, along with cyclical sectors like financials, are expected to perform better due to their sensitivity to interest rate changes [3][4] - The U.S. dollar may not necessarily decline following rate cuts, as historical trends show a slight average increase in the dollar one month and three months after dovish meetings [3][4][5] - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline more significantly than long-term yields, which may be constrained by factors such as fiscal deficits and credit conditions [4][5] Group 3 - In the Chinese market, the impact of rate cuts is seen as a supplementary factor, with the primary influence being the economic fundamentals [4][5] - A-shares are anticipated to favor growth sectors over value sectors, particularly in interest-sensitive industries like pharmaceuticals and electronics, which tend to perform better in the six months following rate cuts [6][7] - Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the information technology sector, are expected to show superior performance both in the short and long term following rate cuts [6][7]