证券研究报告·公司点评报告·保险Ⅱ 中国太保（601601） 中国太保发行 H 股可转债，提升资本实力支 持主业发展 2025 年 09 月 12 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 曹锟 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 323945 | 404089 | 418074 | 424009 | 429944 | | 同比（%） | -2.47% | 24.74% | 3.46% | 1.42% | 1.40% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 27257 | 44960 | 51637 | 52698 | 55273 | | 同比（%） | -27.08% | 64.95% | 14.85% | 2.06% | 4.89% | | 每股 EV（元/股） | 55.04 | 58.42 | 62.03 | 66.86 | 72.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company focuses on the fields of mental health and cardiovascular diseases, with a promising development of innovative drugs. The launch of the insomnia drug, Dazisni, is expected to significantly contribute to revenue growth. The company is also advancing in the development of a small molecule Lp(a) inhibitor, which has potential for international markets [7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has diversified its business across raw materials, finished drugs, and medical devices, marking a new phase in innovative drug development. It has become a leading enterprise in the mental health and cardiovascular sectors, with a production capacity exceeding 10 billion tablets [12][14]. 2. Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,999 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 618.90 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 6.55% compared to the previous year. Revenue is forecasted to grow to 5,770 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.59% [1][18]. 3. Product Pipeline - The company has a rich pipeline of over ten innovative drug projects, including the small molecule Lp(a) inhibitor JX2201, which is currently in Phase I clinical trials. The drug has significant potential due to the large patient population with elevated Lp(a) levels and the absence of approved treatments targeting this condition [7][61]. 4. Market Dynamics - The insomnia drug market in China is projected to grow significantly, with the number of insomnia patients expected to reach 300 million by 2025. The company’s insomnia drug, Dazisni, is anticipated to capture a substantial market share following its launch and subsequent inclusion in the medical insurance list [45][54]. 5. Revenue Contributions - The finished drug segment is expected to contribute approximately 61% of total revenue in 2024, with a projected revenue of 25.22 billion yuan. The company is also focusing on expanding its overseas market presence and enhancing its product offerings through innovative drug development [29][35].

Macro Strategy - The recent cooling of US employment data makes a rate cut in September almost certain, with expectations of a 25bps cut and potential for 1-2 additional cuts throughout the year [1][12][16] - Gold prices surged, breaking the $3600 per ounce mark, driven by concerns over Eurozone fiscal stability and US rate cut expectations [1][12] - Upcoming US non-farm payroll data and inflation metrics (PPI, CPI) will significantly influence the tone of the September FOMC meeting [1][12][16] Employment Data Analysis - In August, the US added only 22,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with previous months' data also revised downwards [2][16] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.324%, slightly above expectations, indicating a weakening labor demand [2][16] - The labor market is characterized by a "bizarre balance" of weak supply and demand, leading to a more pronounced decline in job additions compared to the rise in unemployment [2][16] Fixed Income Market Insights - The issuance of green bonds increased to approximately 8.767 billion yuan, reflecting a growing interest in sustainable finance [3] - The secondary market for green bonds saw a decrease in trading volume, totaling 48.2 billion yuan, indicating a potential cooling in investor interest [3] - The bond market is experiencing a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with limited downward movement in bond yields despite significant stock market corrections [4][5] Industry Analysis: Semiconductor Sector - The domestic computing power sector is showing signs of recovery, with increased activity in GPU orders from major internet companies [10] - Companies like Cambrian and Haiguang are actively pursuing capital operations and acquisitions, indicating a bullish sentiment in the semiconductor space [10] - The release of new high-performance chips is expected to drive further growth in the domestic computing power market, with significant implications for internet and ODM companies [10] Company-Specific Insights: NIO Inc. - NIO's new vehicle performance is strong, but the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards due to increased industry competition [11] - Despite the downward revision, NIO maintains a "buy" rating based on its comprehensive technology layout and marketing strategies [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The acquisition of Chipwise Technology is expected to create synergies in business, customers, and costs, enhancing the company's competitive advantage in AI ASIC design services [3] - The company has reported a record high in orders, with a total order amount of 3.025 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025, marking an 85.88% increase in new orders compared to the same period last year [8] - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 3.022 billion yuan in 2025, 3.822 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.724 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 30.17%, 26.44%, and 23.60% respectively [9] Financial Projections - The company is expected to report a net profit of -98.21 million yuan in 2025, turning positive with a profit of 204.33 million yuan in 2026 and 419.35 million yuan in 2027 [1][9] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be -0.19 yuan in 2025, with expectations of 0.39 yuan in 2026 and 0.80 yuan in 2027 [1][9] - The company’s P/E ratio is forecasted to be -819.01 in 2025, improving to 393.64 in 2026 and 191.81 in 2027 [1][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO-SW (09866.HK) [1][20] Core Views - The company's Q2 2025 performance met expectations, with significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements. Revenue for Q2 2025 was CNY 19.01 billion, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.0% and a year-on-year increase of 57.9% [8][9] - Vehicle sales revenue reached CNY 16.14 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.9% and a year-on-year increase of 62.3% [8] - The company delivered 72,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 71.5% [9] - The report anticipates Q3 2025 vehicle deliveries to reach between 87,000 and 91,000, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 40.7% to 47.1% [9][20] - New vehicle models, such as the L90 and ES8, have received strong market feedback, with the L90 achieving 10,575 deliveries in its first month [19][20] - Due to intensified industry competition, the net profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been revised down to CNY -179 billion and CNY -128 billion, respectively [20] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - Q2 2025 revenue was CNY 19.01 billion, with a gross margin of 10.0% [8][12] - The average revenue per vehicle decreased to CNY 223,900, down 18.1% quarter-on-quarter [9] - The company reported an operating loss of CNY 4.91 billion for Q2 2025, with an adjusted net loss of CNY 4.13 billion [8][16] New Product Launches - The L90 SUV was launched on July 31, 2025, with a starting price of CNY 265,800, and achieved rapid sales [19] - The ES8 is positioned as a flagship SUV and is expected to launch in late September 2025 [19] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E show a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of CNY 89.21 billion in 2025E and CNY 154.02 billion in 2027E [1] - The report anticipates continued losses, with net profit forecasts for 2025E at CNY -17.88 billion and for 2026E at CNY -12.76 billion [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current strength of domestic computing power is not the end of the "domestic computing power" market, but rather a preparation for a healthier rise in the next round. Recent signs indicate a potential "start" [1] - Active developments in the industry include major internet companies placing GPU orders, which fosters positive sentiment [1] - Companies are actively pursuing capital operations, such as Cambricon's fundraising approval and Haiguang's acquisition of Shuguang [2] - Major moves by downstream internet companies, such as Alibaba's strategic partnerships and AI ecosystem developments, suggest optimistic expectations for AI in the coming year [1] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report highlights a significant upcoming market trend driven by AI, with companies like Cambricon and Haiguang expected to open new market spaces [2] - The perspective on AI chips is shifting, with new product launches indicating a fresh evaluation framework for existing chips [2] - The report notes a strong correlation between domestic and overseas markets, with positive demand for ASICs and significant orders contributing to company valuations [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Cambricon, Haiguang Information, Chipone, and Shengke Communication for investment opportunities [2] - Specific company metrics include: - Cambricon: Market cap of 532.56 billion, projected EPS growth from -1.08 to 9.62 [7] - Haiguang Information: Market cap of 427.75 billion, projected EPS growth from 0.83 to 1.85 [7] - Chipone: Market cap of 80.43 billion, projected EPS growth from -1.14 to 0.39 [7] - Shengke Communication: Market cap of 43.36 billion, projected EPS growth from -0.17 to 0.08 [7]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent cooling of U.S. employment data makes a rate cut in September almost certain, with expectations of a 25bps cut and potential for 1-2 additional cuts throughout the year [1][16][20] - The report highlights that gold prices surged past $3600 per ounce, reaching new highs due to concerns over Eurozone fiscal stability and the anticipated rate cuts [1][16] - Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and inflation metrics (PPI and CPI) are critical for determining the tone of the September FOMC meeting [1][16][20] Employment Data Analysis - In August, the U.S. added only 22,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with prior months' data also revised downward [2][20] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.324%, slightly above expectations, indicating a weakening labor demand while maintaining a distorted balance of supply and demand [2][20] - The report suggests that the labor market is experiencing a dual weakness, with non-farm employment growth declining more sharply than the rise in unemployment [2][20] Fixed Income Market Insights - The issuance of green bonds increased to approximately 8.767 billion yuan, with a notable rise in the number of new issues compared to the previous week [3] - The report discusses the performance of the bond market, indicating limited downward movement in bond yields despite a significant stock market correction [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of the equity-risk premium (ERP) as a measure of stock-bond valuation, currently indicating a downward trend since 2015 [5] Industry Reports - The electronic industry is highlighted for its advancements with Rubin CPX, which addresses the challenges of the million-token era and enhances computational efficiency [10] - The renewable energy sector shows strong growth in inverters and wind power production, while the solar supply chain faces challenges [11] - The IT and internet finance sector is positioned for growth due to increased market activity and ongoing digital transformation within brokerages [12] Company-Specific Insights - Federal Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 7.519 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit increase of 27.02%, driven by validated innovation capabilities [13][14] - Foster's mid-year report indicates stable profitability in its film products and rapid growth in electronic materials, projecting significant profit increases through 2027 [15]

Group 1 - The report indicates that developed and emerging markets experienced gains during the week of September 1 to September 5, 2025, with emerging markets rising by 1.4% and developed markets by 0.3% [1] - In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 0.2%, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.4%, and the Hang Seng Stock Connect gained 1.5%. The healthcare and materials sectors led the gains [1] - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is still in a volatile upward trend, requiring new momentum for further increases, particularly in technology and internet leading companies [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000 and the previous month's revised figure of 79,000 [2] - The report notes that Broadcom's AI ASIC revenue growth exceeded expectations, with a projected 63% revenue growth rate expected to continue for the next ten quarters, driven by a significant order of $10 billion from a new client [2] - The report emphasizes that the U.S. stock market is likely to experience increased volatility in the short term, with the potential for interest rate cuts in September depending on economic data [3] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on small-cap stocks and interest rate-sensitive growth stocks during the interest rate cut cycle, as these sectors are expected to benefit from improved earnings and liquidity [4] - It is noted that the macroeconomic fundamentals in the U.S. are slowing but not in a recession, with stable wage income supporting consumption and nominal growth [4] - The report anticipates that the AI narrative in the U.S. stock market will continue to gain traction in the medium to long term, supported by ongoing technological advancements and policy measures [4] Group 4 - The report indicates that global stock ETF inflows have slowed, with a net inflow of $13.094 billion and marginal outflows of $22.679 billion, while bond ETFs also saw reduced inflows [7] - It highlights that the U.S. stock ETF saw the highest net inflow of $6.57 billion, followed by Europe, while emerging markets, particularly China, experienced significant inflows [7] - The report identifies technology, materials, and financial sectors as the top three industries for net inflows, while utilities saw the most significant outflows [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's innovative research and development capabilities have been validated, with a comprehensive advancement in its metabolic pipeline [7][15] - The company has successfully authorized UBT251 to Novo Nordisk, indicating strong clinical potential and efficient overseas clinical progression [15][27] - The company is expected to achieve peak domestic sales of UBT251 for weight loss indications at 4.3 billion yuan by 2032 [18][19] Summary by Sections 1. Short-term Pressure on Main Business - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.519 billion yuan (+4.8% YoY) and net profit of 1.894 billion yuan (+27.02% YoY) [12] - The demand for antibiotics has impacted main business profits, but the negative effects are expected to diminish as high base effects are eliminated [12][14] 2. Comprehensive Innovative Pipeline Layout - UBT251 has been successfully authorized to Novo Nordisk, showcasing the company's validated R&D capabilities [15] - UBT48128, based on the structure of Eli Lilly's orforglipron, has shown significant weight loss potential in preclinical studies [24] - UBT37034 has received FDA approval for clinical trials, targeting the neuropeptide Y2 receptor, which is crucial for obesity treatment [27] 3. Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 138.6 billion yuan, 150.0 billion yuan, and 162.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with YoY growth rates of 0.7%, 8.2%, and 8.4% respectively [31] - The net profit is expected to be 31.1 billion yuan, 31.0 billion yuan, and 33.8 billion yuan for the same period, with YoY growth rates of 17.0%, -0.3%, and 9.1% respectively [31] - The report maintains the "Buy" rating based on the successful R&D progress of UBT251 and the robust pipeline of UBT48128 and UBT37034 [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the electronic industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - The introduction of the Rubin CPX, which offers approximately 30 PFLOPS of computing power and is designed for "million-token" inference scenarios, marks a significant advancement in NVIDIA's product line [2][7]. - The launch of Rubin CPX is expected to accelerate global demand for computing power, particularly in AI applications that require long context generation, thus enhancing the value chain across various related sectors [3][7]. - The Rubin CPX system, which integrates with Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs, aims to optimize resource utilization and reduce inference costs while improving response times [7]. Industry Trends - The report highlights a shift in the computing infrastructure towards a new phase characterized by "context and generation collaboration," driven by the demand for long-context inference and multimodal video generation [3][7]. - Companies within the supply chain, including those involved in PCB, copper cables, optical chips, and server manufacturing, are expected to benefit from the advancements brought by Rubin CPX [3][7].