Macro Strategy - The domestic economy is expected to face slight pressure in the second half of the year, but the annual growth target of 5% remains achievable, supported by policy measures such as a 500 billion yuan financial tool and consumer incentives [21][22] - Key risks include the potential decline in exports, pressure on consumption growth, and a slowdown in real estate investment, which may have a greater impact on the economy in the latter half of the year [21][22] Fixed Income - The report discusses why domestic commercial banks are unlikely to reduce their balance sheets, citing factors such as the need to support the economy during a slowdown, the current accommodative monetary policy, and the role of state-owned banks in financing key sectors [2][24] - The report emphasizes that the probability of a sector-wide balance sheet reduction is low, although some smaller banks may face pressure to do so [2][24] Industry Analysis - The report on FuChuang Precision (688409) maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 320 million, 480 million, and 650 million yuan, respectively, with a "buy" rating due to long-term growth potential despite short-term pressures [4] - LiBert (605167) experienced revenue pressure in the first half of the year, with a focus on expanding into new industries, leading to a revised profit forecast of 232 million and 264 million yuan for 2025-2026 [5] - JianLang Hardware (002791) is adjusting profit forecasts to 175 million, 272 million, and 328 million yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating based on expected recovery and operational adjustments [6] - HuaFeng Measurement and Control (688200) maintains profit forecasts of 460 million, 540 million, and 600 million yuan for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating due to strong demand in the high-end testing market [7] - FuBo Group (03738.HK) is positioned well in the AI-driven content industry, with profit forecasts of 230 million, 310 million, and 390 million HKD for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [8] - YiXin Group (02858.HK) is expected to achieve net profits of 1.126 billion, 1.398 billion, and 1.701 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating based on competitive advantages in automotive finance [9] - ZhongKe International (688981) is highlighted as a leading player in the semiconductor industry, with a focus on advanced process technology [9] - The report on Tianqi Lithium (002466) adjusts profit forecasts to 450 million, 860 million, and 1.44 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating based on resource advantages [16] - The report on Jidong Cement (000401) indicates a significant reduction in losses and improved profitability, with revised profit forecasts of 270 million and 590 million yuan for 2025-2026 [11][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In August 2025, BYD's sales reached 374,000 units, showing a month-on-month increase, with a focus on high-end products and exports [8] - The company is expected to achieve annual sales of over 5 million units, with a year-on-year growth of over 17%, including 900,000 to 1 million units in exports, representing a 128% increase [8] - The report anticipates a continuous increase in the share of pure electric vehicles and ongoing efforts in high-end product development and international expansion [8] - BYD's battery installations in August increased by 23%, with significant growth in external battery supply, projecting a total installation of 290-300 GWh for the year, a 50% year-on-year increase [8] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 45 billion, 59 billion, and 71 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 17, and 14 times [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 777.1 billion yuan in 2024, 924.5 billion yuan in 2025, and 1,047.7 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.02%, 18.97%, and 13.33% respectively [1][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 40.3 billion yuan in 2024 to 71 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 34% in 2024 and 11.83% in 2025 [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 4.42 yuan in 2024, increasing to 7.79 yuan by 2027 [1][9]

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Valuation Deviation (EPD) Factor - **Construction Idea**: Combines the mean-reversion strategy commonly used in CTA with the valuation repair logic of fundamentals, leveraging the mean-reversion characteristics of the PE valuation metric[7][2] - **Construction Process**: - Utilize the mean-reversion property of the PE ratio to construct the EPD factor[7] - The factor captures valuation deviations based on historical PE levels[7] - **Evaluation**: Reflects the valuation deviation of stocks, providing a basis for mean-reversion strategies[7] 2. Factor Name: Slow Deviation (EPDS) Factor - **Construction Idea**: Removes the impact of changes in individual stock valuation logic by using the EPD factor to exclude stocks with altered valuation logic, represented by the stock's information ratio[7][2] - **Construction Process**: - Use the EPD factor as a base - Exclude stocks with high probabilities of valuation logic changes, as proxied by their information ratios[7] - **Evaluation**: Focuses on stocks with stable valuation logic, enhancing the robustness of the factor[7] 3. Factor Name: Valuation Anomaly (EPA) Factor - **Construction Idea**: Further removes the influence of beta, growth, and value styles from the EPDS factor to isolate the "valuation anomaly" logic[7][2] - **Construction Process**: - Start with the EPDS factor - Adjust for beta, growth, and value style influences to refine the factor[7] - **Evaluation**: Provides a purer measure of valuation anomalies, making it more effective for stock selection[7] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Valuation Deviation (EPD) Factor - Annualized Return: 17.47%[2][8][12] - Annualized Volatility: 9.94%[2][8][12] - IR: 1.76[2][8][12] - Monthly Win Rate: 70.59%[2][8][12] - Maximum Drawdown: 8.93%[2][8][12] 2. Slow Deviation (EPDS) Factor - Annualized Return: 16.12%[2][8][12] - Annualized Volatility: 5.74%[2][8][12] - IR: 2.81[2][8][12] - Monthly Win Rate: 78.61%[2][8][12] - Maximum Drawdown: 3.10%[2][8][12] 3. Valuation Anomaly (EPA) Factor - Annualized Return: 17.29%[2][8][12] - Annualized Volatility: 5.14%[2][8][12] - IR: 3.37[2][8][12] - Monthly Win Rate: 80.75%[2][8][12] - Maximum Drawdown: 3.12%[2][8][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance but is expected to achieve long-term growth due to its leading position in the components sector and platform-based layout [1] - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 1.724 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.28 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 89.9% [7] - The company has made significant improvements in cash flow and order fulfillment capabilities, with contract liabilities increasing by 207.4% year-on-year [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 2,066 million yuan (2023A), 3,040 million yuan (2024A), 4,189 million yuan (2025E), 5,515 million yuan (2026E), and 7,002 million yuan (2027E) [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 168.69 million yuan (2023A), 202.65 million yuan (2024A), 321.14 million yuan (2025E), 475.02 million yuan (2026E), and 650.93 million yuan (2027E) [1] - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 126.16 (2023A), 105.02 (2024A), 66.27 (2025E), 44.80 (2026E), and 32.69 (2027E) [1] Operational Highlights - The company has deepened its penetration with major clients, with the top five clients accounting for over 75% of revenue in H1 2025 [7] - The company has achieved significant breakthroughs in the mass production of precision components, including various gas distribution plates and metal heating plates [7] - The establishment of overseas bases and the acquisition of Compart have enhanced the company's global competitiveness [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing significant pressure on profitability, with a notable decline in domestic market revenue, while the overseas market expansion shows promising results [7] - The company reported a total revenue of 2.755 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -30 million yuan, compared to a profit of 5 million yuan in the same period last year [7] - The company is focusing on integrating and expanding new product categories while enhancing product capabilities, aiming to improve service capabilities and iterate sales and product models during the industry downturn [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 7.802 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 6.118 billion yuan in 2025E, followed by a recovery to 6.646 billion yuan in 2026E and 7.235 billion yuan in 2027E [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to drop from 324.01 million yuan in 2023A to 175.23 million yuan in 2025E, before increasing to 272.03 million yuan in 2026E and 327.97 million yuan in 2027E [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.50 yuan per share in 2025E, with a P/E ratio of 44.79 [1] Market and Operational Insights - The company’s overseas revenue reached 477 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.75%, indicating a growing share of overseas sales [7] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 30.37%, slightly down by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with the company managing expenses effectively despite revenue pressures [7] - The company’s asset-liability ratio was 38.74% at the end of the first half of 2025, showing a downward trend compared to the beginning of the year [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.44 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 122 million yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [7] - The company is actively exploring new industries and clients, which may form a second growth curve, particularly in marine oil and gas, nuclear power engineering, mining, and water treatment sectors [7] - The company has made significant progress in the nuclear power engineering field, winning a contract worth 267 million yuan for a project with China General Nuclear Power Group [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023 is 3.24 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 2.79 billion yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 3.47 billion yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 231.9 million yuan in 2025, with a growth forecast to 320.83 million yuan by 2027 [1][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.52 yuan in 2025, increasing to 0.71 yuan by 2027 [1][8] - The company’s comprehensive gross margin improved to 18.1% in the first half of 2025, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin industrial module revenue [7]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250903 新价量相关性因子绩效月报 20250829 2025 年 09 月 03 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《 新 价 量 相 关 性 因 子 绩 效 月 报 20250731》 2025-08-01 《"技术分析拥抱选股因子"系列研究 （十四）：RPV 聪明版——聪明换手率 是更好的配料》 2023-09-27 东吴证券研究所 1 / 7 | 1. RPV、SRV | 因子绩效回顾 4 | | --- | --- | | 2. 风险提示 | 6 | 金工定期报告 图表目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 新价量相关性 RPV 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2014 年 1 月 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 阜博集团（03738.HK） 2025 年半年报点评：收入稳健增长，净利润 同比大增 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 2,001 | 2,401 | 3,010 | 3,680 | 4,320 | | 同比（%） | 38.70 | 20.01 | 25.36 | 22.25 | 17.39 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | (7.82) | 142.73 | 191.28 | 260.12 | 335.89 | | 同比（%） | (118.61) | 1,925.62 | 34.02 | 35.99 | 29.13 | | Non-IFRS 净利润（百万港元） | 37.41 | 179.67 | 233.58 | 310.03 | 394.17 | | 同比（%） | (58.38) | 380.25 | 30.01 | 32.73 | 27 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a focus on the high-end testing machine 8600 benefiting from the demand for computing power SoC [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 530 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.0%, with overseas revenue growing by 141.7% [7] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 74.7%, with a net profit margin of 36.6%, indicating stable profitability despite a slight decrease in gross margin [7] - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to fund the self-research of ASIC chips, which is crucial for overcoming bottlenecks in high-end testing machines [7] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 4.6 billion, 5.4 billion, and 6.0 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 51, 44, and 39 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 905 million yuan in 2024 to 1.494 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.70% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 334 million yuan in 2024 to 604 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 12.20% [8] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 2.46 yuan in 2024 to 4.46 yuan in 2027 [8] - The company's cash flow from operating activities is expected to improve significantly, reaching 686 million yuan by 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the automotive finance sector, leveraging its technological capabilities to drive growth and innovation [9][14]. - The automotive finance industry in China is expected to continue expanding, with significant growth opportunities due to low penetration rates compared to mature markets [34][40]. - The company's transition from self-operated financing to a transaction platform model is accelerating, with financial technology services becoming a key growth driver [25][61]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally part of Yiche.com, has evolved into a major player in automotive finance since its establishment in 2013 and listing in 2017 [14]. - Tencent holds a 53.88% stake in the company, providing strong backing and resources for its growth [16]. - The management team has extensive industry experience, which supports the company's long-term development [19]. Automotive Finance Industry Overview - The automotive finance market in China is projected to reach 6.8 trillion yuan by 2029, driven by increasing consumer demand and regulatory support [37]. - The penetration rate of automotive finance in China is currently at 50.5%, indicating substantial room for growth compared to developed markets [40]. - The competitive landscape includes various players such as commercial banks, automotive finance companies, and internet platforms, each with distinct advantages and challenges [44]. Company Development Highlights - The company's transaction platform business is a strategic focus, with revenue from this segment growing significantly [56]. - Financial technology (SaaS) services have become a major revenue driver, with a 124% year-on-year increase in revenue [61]. - The self-operated financing business has seen a decline in revenue, but asset quality remains stable [67]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 11.26 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 39.03% from 2025 to 2027 [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 0.17 yuan in 2025 to 0.26 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing over the same period [1].