Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has introduced a new action plan for the digital RMB, transitioning from a "cash-type 1.0" to a "deposit currency-type 2.0" starting January 1, 2026. This upgrade includes a redefinition of liabilities and a new macro framework [3]. - The new digital RMB framework aims to enhance the management and infrastructure of digital currency, improving liquidity management and regulatory efficiency. It introduces a wallet system based on accounts, a "currency string" for value transfer, and a smart contract ecosystem [3]. - The investment implications suggest that the digital RMB upgrade will drive demand for financial IT services, payment acceptance, and telecom operators, with specific companies recommended for investment [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report highlights a significant upgrade in the digital RMB, which is expected to enhance its role as a core banking liability and infrastructure, moving beyond pilot products to mainstream adoption [3]. Mechanism and Technical Architecture - The new mechanism emphasizes the redefinition of customer balances in commercial banks as liabilities, with a focus on risk management and compliance. The technical architecture includes an upgraded wallet system and smart contracts to facilitate programmable digital payments [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Hengsheng Electronics, Jingbeifang, Changliang Technology, and Yuxin Technology in the financial IT sector. For payment acceptance, companies such as Newland, Lakala, and Hengyin Technology are recommended. Telecom operators like China Telecom, China Unicom, and China Mobile are also highlighted as beneficiaries of the new digital infrastructure [3].

Macro Strategy - The report suggests that despite expectations of a slowdown in marginal fiscal funding for 2026, fiscal spending may still exceed expectations due to two main factors: a rebound in prices leading to increased fiscal revenue and a significant amount of fiscal "surplus" carried over from 2025. Specifically, a 1.8 percentage point increase in PPI could generate approximately 260 billion yuan in additional tax revenue, equivalent to a 0.2 percentage point increase in the deficit ratio. Additionally, the fiscal surplus may exceed 500 billion yuan, potentially enhancing the growth rate of general public budget expenditure by about 2.6 percentage points [1][19]. Industry Insights Electronic Industry - The report highlights that the domestic computing power industry is expected to experience significant growth, particularly in 2026, with domestic computing chip leaders likely entering a performance realization phase. The demand for domestic GPUs is anticipated to benefit from capacity releases due to advanced process expansions. The competition among domestic computing chip participants for market share is expected to drive the importance of AI ASIC service providers within the supply chain. Key recommendations include companies like Cambricon and Shengke Communication [9]. 3D DRAM - The report indicates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for 3D DRAM, driven by the rapid increase in storage demand from AI hardware deployment. The technology is expected to support various applications, including robotics, AIoT, and automotive sectors. The report recommends companies such as GigaDevice and Beijing Junzheng as key players in this space [10]. Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is projected to see improvements in both liabilities and assets, with significant upward valuation potential. The demand for insurance remains strong, and the shift towards dividend insurance is expected to optimize liability costs. The report notes that the current valuation of the insurance sector is at historical lows, suggesting a "buy" rating for the industry [12]. Environmental Industry - The report emphasizes the value of the waste incineration sector, driven by declining capital expenditures and improving operating cash flows. The acceleration of national subsidies is expected to enhance cash flow, with projections indicating that the sector's dividend potential could increase significantly as capital expenditures normalize [16]. Computer Industry - The report discusses the intersection of state-owned enterprise reform and local revenue enhancement, predicting that 2026 will see intensified management of local state-owned enterprises, leading to accelerated capital operations [13][14]. Space Computing - The report identifies the space computing industry as a rapidly evolving field, crucial for addressing global computing resource bottlenecks. It highlights the strategic importance of this sector and recommends focusing on companies with technological advantages in key areas [15]. Green Bonds - The report tracks the issuance of green bonds, noting an increase in issuance and a decrease in trading volume in the secondary market. This reflects the growing interest in sustainable finance and the potential for investment opportunities in this area [4][8]. Capital Market Trends - The report outlines trends in the capital markets, including the performance of various commodities and the impact of macroeconomic factors on pricing. It notes that the copper market is experiencing upward pressure due to supply constraints and demand fluctuations, while aluminum prices are also on the rise due to production capacity increases [11]. AI and Technology - The report forecasts that 2026 will mark the beginning of a new era for AI terminals, with major tech companies expected to launch innovative products. The integration of AI into consumer electronics is anticipated to create new market opportunities [9][18].

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·计算机 计算机行业点评报告 Meta 收购 Manus，AI Agent 新里程碑 2025 年 12 月 31 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 王紫敬 执业证书：S0600521080005 021-60199781 wangzj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 30% 2024/12/31 2025/5/1 2025/8/30 2025/12/29 计算机 沪深300 相关研究 《关注地方国企资本运作——国企改 革和地方增收的交汇点》 2025-12-30 《太空算力：苍穹之上的下一代计算 范式》 2025-12-30 东吴证券研究所 1 / 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 事件：北京时间 2025 年 12 月 30 日，Meta 官宣收购 Manus。 ◼ Meta 官宣收购 Manus，补齐应用层能力。北京时间 2025 年 12 月 30 日，Meta 官宣将以"数十亿美元"收购 AI 智能体产品 Manus 的开发方 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is accelerating its marketing transformation and further developing multi-channel strategies for 2026. It aims to stabilize the domestic supply of Moutai liquor while clarifying product positioning and pricing [7] - The company plans to focus on two major product categories: the 500ml Flying Moutai and premium products, while reducing the supply of smaller bottle sizes to alleviate channel burdens [7] - A dynamic adjustment of channel distribution is planned, creating a diverse sales model that includes self-sale, distribution, agency, and consignment to better match market demand [7] - The company aims to establish a "2+N" product system for Moutai sauce-flavored liquor, focusing on two core products while ensuring pricing aligns with market demand [7] - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a steady growth in net profit, with expected figures of 90.2 billion, 91 billion, and 92.9 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.5%, 1.0%, and 2.0% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 182.88 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.02% [1] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 71.99 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 19.30 [1] - The company's total assets are forecasted to grow to 339.72 billion yuan by 2026, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 17.31% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The electronic industry is expected to experience significant growth driven by advancements in AI technology and the domestic supply chain's maturation, particularly in cloud and edge computing [11][15] - The report highlights the importance of 3D DRAM as a key hardware innovation for AI applications, with expectations for substantial demand growth in 2026 [22][27] - The shift towards high-density interconnects and advanced power supply architectures is crucial for supporting the increasing power density of AI data centers [50][56] Summary by Sections Cloud Computing Power - The domestic computing power supply chain is accelerating, with significant performance releases expected from local manufacturers like Zhongke Shuguang and Huawei [11] - The transition from Scale-Out to Scale-Up networking is enhancing bandwidth and reducing latency, which is critical for AI applications [11] Edge Computing Power - The integration of edge and cloud computing is becoming essential for AI applications, with edge devices benefiting from advancements in SoC technology [15][17] - Companies like Jingchen and Ruixinwei are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for edge AI solutions [19] 3D DRAM - 3D DRAM is anticipated to become mainstream in 2026, driven by its high bandwidth and low cost, making it essential for various AI applications [22][27] - Companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation are expected to lead in the development of 3D DRAM technologies [28] AI Models - The optimization of AI models is crucial for enhancing performance and user experience, with a focus on local processing capabilities [29][30] - The collaboration between terminal manufacturers and model providers is expected to evolve, shaping the competitive landscape [30][33] AI Terminals - 2026 marks the beginning of a new era for AI terminals, with major companies like Meta, Apple, and Google launching innovative products [34][36] - The development of new terminal forms, such as smart glasses and desktop robots, is expected to drive market growth [34][35] Longxin Chain - Longxin's expansion plans are set to enhance the DRAM supply chain, with a focus on 3D architecture to improve performance and efficiency [38][39] - The company is expected to benefit from increased capital investment and technological advancements [39][41] Wafer Foundry - The domestic wafer foundry industry is entering a new expansion phase, particularly in advanced logic processes [42][43] - Key players like SMIC and Huahong are expected to lead this expansion, addressing the growing demand for advanced chips [44] PCB Industry - The PCB market is poised for growth, driven by the demand for high-performance materials and advanced designs [45][48] - Companies like Shenghong Technology are expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI-related PCB applications [49] Optical-Copper Interconnection - The demand for optical and copper interconnections is increasing, driven by the growth of AI computing clusters [50][52] - Companies such as Changguang Huaxin are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [53] Server Power Supply - The shift to HVDC power supply architectures is becoming essential for AI data centers, addressing the challenges of increasing power density [55][56] - Companies like Oulu Tong are expected to lead in the development of advanced power supply solutions [56]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company, 蘅东光, is a precision device supplier in the optical communication sector, focusing on passive optical devices, with a strong emphasis on expanding production capacity to seize market opportunities [6][11]. - The optical device industry is rapidly developing, driven by the growth of AI, cloud computing, and data centers, which are becoming the core engines of demand for optical communication [6][11]. - The company has a solid foundation in precision manufacturing technology, enabling it to quickly adapt to customer needs and maintain high-quality production [6][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - 蘅东光 specializes in the research, manufacturing, and sales of passive optical devices, with a focus on the AI data center network fiber connection industry [11]. - The company has established a competitive edge in high-density, high-speed passive optical devices, effectively addressing the increasing demands of AI computing [11]. 2. Industry Growth - The optical device market is experiencing significant growth, with the global data center architecture transitioning towards high bandwidth, low latency, and low loss computing networks [6][11]. - The shift in industry focus from precision processing to semiconductor-level micro-nano manufacturing has raised technological barriers, enhancing customer loyalty and market entry barriers [6][11]. 3. Manufacturing and R&D Capabilities - The company has deep technical expertise and integrates R&D with manufacturing, ensuring high-quality product delivery [6][11]. - The company plans to use raised funds for expanding production bases and enhancing R&D capabilities, indicating a balanced and pragmatic approach to growth [6][11]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 21.50 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit expected to be 2.86 billion yuan, reflecting significant growth compared to previous years [4][6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.95 yuan in 2023 to 4.20 yuan in 2025, indicating strong profitability potential [4][6]. 5. Revenue and Profitability Trends - The company’s revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 66.33% from 2022 to 2024, with significant increases in both revenue and net profit during this period [34][36]. - In 2024, 70.34% of the company's revenue is expected to come from passive optical fiber wiring products, highlighting the dominant revenue stream [36].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 市场缺乏进一步指引，贵金属动量趋势强劲 价格再创新高 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（12 月 22 日-12 月 26 日），有色板块本周上涨 6.43%，在全部一级 行业中排名靠前。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中工业金属板块上 涨 7.07%，能源金属板块上涨 6.66%，小金属板块上涨 6.16%，金属新材料板块上 涨 4.93%，贵金属板块上涨 4.06%。工业金属方面，本周海外受到圣诞假期影响流 动性低迷，数据层面好坏参半，市场缺乏进一步有效指引，本周市场交易更多跟随 惯性动量，受美元继续下行支撑，本周工业金属价格维持上行驱动。贵金属方面， 本周贵金属价格维持上行驱动。基于上述流动性低迷的现状，以及 LME 白银租赁 利率的持续高企，沪银同时出现了期现溢价以及内外盘溢价，投资者需警惕随着海 外流动性回归，以及 26 年 1 月 8 日至 1 月 15 日彭博 BCOM 商品指数调仓引发的 潜在回调风险。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：TC 价格落地沪铜维持惯性上涨突破 10 ...

宏观深度报告 20251230 2026 年财政可能有两个超预期 2025 年 12 月 30 日 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《以史为鉴：鲍威尔成为美联储"太 上皇"的尾部风险有多大？》 2025-12-29 《12 月出口增速预计将小幅回落》 2025-12-28 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：尽管市场普遍预期 2026 年财政的边际增量资金可能放缓， 但财政支出仍有可能超预期。超预期主要来自两个方向：一是物价回升 将带来的财政收入增量；二是 2025 年有较多的财政"余粮"留到下年 使用。具体而言，若 PPI 同比增速回升 1.8 个点（-2.4%→-0.6%），可 能带来约 2600 亿元的额外税收收入，这一效果相当于赤字率提高 0.2 个点（即 4.0%→4.2%）；同时，今年支出偏慢，财政 ...

Group 1: Long-term Value - The report emphasizes the defensive value of dividend assets in the Hong Kong stock market, showcasing their resilience amid market volatility, with a return drawdown ratio of 2.4 times [1][11] - Policy support has significantly increased the attractiveness of dividend assets, with A-share companies enhancing their dividend distributions, injecting long-term valuation momentum into these assets [1][16] - There is a sustained demand for long-term capital allocation from insurance funds, which are expected to continue flowing into dividend assets due to their stable returns and matching duration needs [1][17] - The report highlights that Hong Kong dividend assets outperform A-shares, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Index yielding 6.7%, while state-owned enterprises (SOEs) show higher dividend yields compared to other sectors [1][24][25] Group 2: Mid-term Opportunities - The report anticipates a resurgence of dividend style excess returns in the second half of next year, as macro uncertainties may increase, favoring dividend stocks over growth stocks [2][41] - In the first half of the year, growth stocks are expected to dominate due to favorable liquidity conditions and sector trends, particularly in AI and technology [2][34] - The report suggests that the attractiveness of dividend stocks will increase as long-term interest rates decline, enhancing their appeal and potentially leading to valuation increases [2][41] Group 3: Investment Analysis of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index - The index focuses on high-dividend SOEs within the Hong Kong Stock Connect, reflecting the overall performance of these companies [3][11] - Since 2020, the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index has achieved a cumulative return of 40.4%, outperforming both A/H broad indices and similar products [3][11] - The index is heavily weighted towards quality large-cap SOEs in sectors like energy and telecommunications, providing a differentiated investment opportunity compared to A/H market indices [3][13] - The strong dividend-paying capacity of the index is expected to be reinforced by ongoing policies aimed at enhancing the valuation of SOEs [3][15] Group 4: Product Introduction - The Invesco Great Wall National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF offers investors a tool to gain exposure to the Hong Kong SOE dividend sector, with a fund size of 5.62 billion yuan as of December 26, 2025 [4][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the insurance sector [1]. Core Insights - The report discusses the evolution of participating insurance in China, highlighting its significance in a low-interest-rate environment and the shift towards floating yield products, which are gaining traction among domestic investors [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. What is Participating Insurance? - Participating insurance is a type of insurance that combines protection and investment, allowing policyholders to share in the insurer's surplus [12]. - The operational mechanism involves sharing profits derived from better-than-expected performance, with a minimum of 70% of the surplus distributed to policyholders [6][15]. 2. Historical Development of Participating Insurance in Mainland China - The development of participating insurance has seen significant fluctuations influenced by policy and market factors, with its market share peaking at 75% in 2010 before declining due to market reforms [6][45]. - Since 2024, regulatory policies have encouraged the development of floating yield products, marking a consensus in the industry towards transitioning to participating insurance [6][45]. 3. Current Transition of Participating Insurance - The report anticipates that the proportion of participating insurance will continue to rise, with over 50% of new policies in the first half of 2025 being participating insurance [6][45]. - The transition is expected to alleviate pressure from interest rate losses and enhance the reliability of the insurance sector's embedded value (EV) [6][45]. 4. International Experience - In mature markets, floating yield products dominate, with Hong Kong's participating insurance being a core component, accounting for 85% of new premiums in 2024 [2][6]. - The report suggests that the characteristics of participating insurance in Hong Kong, such as multi-currency support and a design of low guarantees with high floating returns, could serve as a model for the mainland market [2][6]. 5. Key Metrics for Evaluating Participating Insurance - The report outlines four key indicators for assessing the performance of participating insurance: 1. **Guaranteed Rate**: Currently set at 1.75%, which is lower than traditional insurance [23]. 2. **Demonstration Rate**: Reflects expected returns, with current rates around 3.5% to 4% [24]. 3. **Actual Yield**: The industry average is capped at 3.2%, with some companies exceeding this limit [27]. 4. **Dividend Realization Rate**: Increased by 11 percentage points to 62% in 2024, indicating improved management and expectation guidance [29].