宏观点评 20250117 大盘小幅收涨，科技板块活跃 2025 年 01 月 17 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 观点 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 ◼ 今日在科技板块带动下市场震荡回升，小幅反弹后，市场增量资金接续 能力仍然偏弱，场内行业开始风格切换。在经济数据和政策的真空期， 场内存量资金可能仍将在大盘高股息和小微盘股之间轮动，1 月 20 日 特朗普就职演说是较为一致预期市场波动的时点，下周市场可能会迎来 资金避险，市场短期可能仍然呈现震荡格局。长期来看，政策增量与转 向已经有明确动向，落地的速度也在进一步加快，在预期证伪之前，市 场情绪底部有支撑，短期调整后整体仍有向上空间。 ◼ 风险提示：市场风格变化，资金进场意愿不足，政策落地不及预期 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 潘京 执业证书：S0600524120011 panj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《什么样的生育政策是有效的？》 2 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250117 大盘小幅收涨，科技板块活跃 2025 年 01 月 17 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 观点 ◼ 今日在科技板块带动下市场震荡回升，小幅反弹后，市场增量资金接续 能力仍然偏弱，场内行业开始风格切换。在经济数据和政策的真空期， 场内存量资金可能仍将在大盘高股息和小微盘股之间轮动，1 月 20 日 特朗普就职演说是较为一致预期市场波动的时点，下周市场可能会迎来 资金避险，市场短期可能仍然呈现震荡格局。长期来看，政策增量与转 向已经有明确动向，落地的速度也在进一步加快，在预期证伪之前，市 场情绪底部有支撑，短期调整后整体仍有向上空间。 ◼ 风险提示：市场风格变化，资金进场意愿不足，政策落地不及预期 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 潘京 执业证书：S0600524120011 panj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《什么样的生育政策是有效的？》 2 ...

证券研究报告 汽车周观点： 1月第2周乘用车同比-9.5%，继续看好汽车板块 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年1月19日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.1.13-2025.1.19 2 （ ◼ 本周复盘总结：一月第二周交强险40.6万辆（同环比-9.5%/+3.8%）。本周SW汽车 指数+4.6%，细分板块涨跌幅排序: SＷ商用载货车(+6.7%) >SW摩托车及其他(+6.3%) > SW汽车零部件(+4.9%)> SW汽车(+4.6%)> 重卡指数(+4.0%)> SW乘用车(+3.5 %) > SW商用载客车(+1.5%) 。本周已覆盖标的长华集团、小鹏汽车-W、爱柯迪、均 胜电子A和双环传动涨幅较好。 ◼ 本周团队研究成果：外发客车1月月报、广汽2024年业绩预告点评、金龙汽车产销点 评。 板块最新观点 3 （ ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）理想汽车德国研发中心成立，负责造型设计-功率半导体-智能 底盘-电力驱动；2）长城汽车公布2024全年业绩预告，预计实 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·保险Ⅱ 保险Ⅱ行业点评报告 上市险企 12 月保费点评：预计储蓄需求依旧 旺盛，将带动寿险开门红延续增长；财险保 费有望稳中有升 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：长端利率趋势性下行；新单保费增速明显放缓。 2025 年 01 月 18 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -4% 3% 10% 17% 24% 31% 38% 45% 52% 59% 2024/1/18 2024/5/18 2024/9/16 2025/1/15 保险Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 | 平安寿险 | 全年累计保费 | 累计同 | Q4 保费 | 同比 | 人保健康险 | 全年累计 | 累计同 | 12 月保费 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保费结构 | | 比 | | | 保费结构 | 保费 | 比 | | | | 个人业务 | 5192.29 | 7.8% | 840 ...

◼ 事件：公司发布业绩预告，24 年归母净利 10.3-12.3 亿元，同减 64-70%， 扣非净利 8.8-10.8 亿元，同减 67-73%；其中 Q4 归母净利 0.6~2.6 亿元， 同减 27-83%，环比-71~+28%，扣非净利 1.1-3.1 亿元，同减 16-71%， 环比-37~+81%，Q4 非经常性损益主要为项目技改计提减值，符合市场 预期。 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 永兴材料（002756） 2024 年业绩预告点评：Q4 业绩符合预期，成 本优势显著 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 15579 | 12189 | 9037 | 8818 | 9747 | | 同比（%） | 116.39 | (21.76) | (25.86) | (2.42) | 10.54 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6320 | 3407 | 1132 | 1003 | 121 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 ◼ 风险提示：美元持续走强；下游需求不及预期。 证券分析师 孟祥文 执业证书：S0600523120001 mengxw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐毅达 执业证书：S0600524110001 xuyd@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 美元现高位筑顶迹象，有色金属普涨 2025 年 01 月 18 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（1 月 13 日-1 月 17 日），有色板块本周上涨 4.47%，在全部一级行 业中涨幅靠中前。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中能源金属板块上 涨 7.28%，小金属板块上涨 4.93%，工业金属板块上涨 3.96%，金属新材料板块上 涨 3.85%，贵金属板块上涨 3.38%。工业金属方面，美国核心 CPI 数据低于预期， 市场风险偏好有所提升，工业金属受此消息提振价格迎来快速上涨，后续需进一步 观察经济前景及需求的边际变化。贵金属方面，本周美国经济数据大幅缓和了市场 对于降息幅度的悲观预期，此外，美联储鹰派理事沃勒"转鸽"，表 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Views - Savings demand remains strong, expected to drive continued growth in life insurance's "Open Red" period [1] - Property insurance premiums are expected to stabilize with slight growth [1] - The life insurance sector is projected to see steady growth in 2025, supported by customer demand for protection and savings products [5] - The property insurance sector shows stable growth, with leading companies like PICC maintaining competitive advantages [5] Life Insurance Sector Analysis - Total premiums for listed life insurance companies increased by 5.1% YoY in 2024 [5] - Ping An Life & Health's new individual business premiums grew by 8.8% annually but declined by 14.8% in Q4 2024 [5] - CPIC Life's individual new business premiums increased by 9.1% annually, with H2 2024 growth at 20.1% [5] - PICC Life's long-term first-year premiums and first-year renewal premiums declined by 28.3% and 47.6% respectively in December 2024 [5] - PICC Health's long-term first-year premiums decreased by 19.2% in December 2024, while first-year renewal premiums surged by 112.0% [5] Property Insurance Sector Analysis - Total premiums for listed property insurance companies increased by 5.4% YoY in 2024 [9] - PICC Property's premiums grew by 4.3% annually, with December 2024 premiums declining by 4.4% [9] - Ping An Property's premiums increased by 6.5% annually, with December 2024 premiums up by 3.4% [9] - CPIC Property's premiums grew by 6.8% annually, with December 2024 premiums up by 4.1% [9] - ZhongAn Online's premiums surged by 13.4% annually, with December 2024 premiums up by 6.2% [9] Company Valuations and Earnings Forecasts - China Ping An's 2024E P/EV is 0.60x, with EPS projected at 5.06 RMB [26] - China Life's 2024E P/EV is 0.82x, with EPS projected at 4.09 RMB [26] - New China Life's 2024E P/EV is 0.56x, with EPS projected at 8.03 RMB [26] - CPIC's 2024E P/EV is 0.53x, with EPS projected at 4.64 RMB [26] Market Trends and Outlook - The insurance sector's valuation remains low, with 2025E P/EV ranging from 0.53x to 0.82x, indicating potential upside [5] - The industry is expected to benefit from economic recovery, stabilizing long-term interest rates, and favorable policies in the real estate sector [5]

Macro Strategy - The US CPI for December 2024 fell short of expectations, leading to a cooling of the previously crowded strong dollar trade However, the dollar index and US Treasury rates remain elevated, reflecting market concerns over the difficulty of bringing US inflation back to 2% due to Trump's tax cuts, tariffs, and immigration policies [1][7] - The report predicts that US inflation in 2025 will first decline and then rise, with a temporary downward pressure from January to April due to high base effects, shale oil production expectations, and a downward trend in housing inflation This could lead to an overreaction to the decline in inflation during this period and a potential illusion of achieving the inflation target by April, resulting in a reversal of the strong dollar narrative [1][7] - The US core CPI for December 2024 unexpectedly cooled, with a year-on-year increase of 3 24%, below the expected 3 3% This led to a shift in the Fed's rate cut expectations from September to June, causing the dollar index and US Treasury rates to fall, while US stocks and commodities rose [7] - The report highlights that the super core inflation cooled in December, corresponding to a weakening in wage growth Housing inflation is expected to continue its downward trend in Q1 2025, contributing to the overall decline in inflation [7] - The report suggests that Trump's policies, including tax cuts, tariffs, and immigration, will push US inflation higher but with a lag The impact of these policies is not expected to be immediate, with tax cuts likely to take effect in Q3 2025 and immigration policies affecting wage inflation with an 8-month lag [7] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a decline in trading volume compared to the previous day, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0 43% to 3227 12 points, down 3 72% from the end of 2024 The ChiNext Index fell 1 82% to 2037 93 points, down 4 84% from the end of 2024 [2][9] - The media sector rose 1 29%, while the banking sector increased by 0 81% and social services gained 0 51% The comprehensive sector fell 3 11%, defense and military dropped 1 80%, and non-ferrous metals declined 1 30% [2][9] - The market turnover was 1211 885 billion yuan, a decrease of 160 109 billion yuan from the previous day Northbound capital turnover was 184 514 billion yuan, while southbound capital saw a net purchase of 12 183 billion yuan [2][9] - The report notes that the market is likely to remain volatile in the short term, with funds rotating between high-dividend large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks However, in the long term, policy shifts and incremental changes are expected to support the market, with room for upward movement after short-term adjustments [3][9] Fixed Income - The Yu Water Convertible Bond (113070 SH) is expected to have an initial listing price range of 115 03 to 127 91 yuan, with a subscription rate of 0 0083% The bond has a good debt floor protection, with a YTM of 1 85% and a credit rating of AAA/AAA [10] - The bond's conversion parity is 93 37 yuan, with a parity premium of 7 10% The bond's terms are standard, with a total share dilution rate of 7 36% [10] - The report recommends actively subscribing to the bond, given its attractive rating and size, and expects a conversion premium of around 30% on the first day of listing [10] Company Analysis - Guangdian Measurement (002967) reported a better-than-expected performance for 2024, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 50%-81% The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to be between 3 1 and 3 3 billion yuan, with net profit ranging from 300 to 360 million yuan [11] - The company's strategic shift towards emerging industries and refined management has led to growth in key sectors such as special industries, automotive, integrated circuits, data science, and aviation The company has also reduced losses in weaker businesses like food and environmental testing [11] - The company's management restructuring has brought in a younger and more professional team, focusing on strategic areas such as low-altitude economy, civil aviation, artificial intelligence, and advanced nuclear energy The company has also implemented cost-saving measures and improved profitability [11] - The company completed its equity incentive plan in July 2024, covering 615 core employees and 8 executives, with a profit target of 233 million yuan in 2024, 292 million yuan in 2025, and 352 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a three-year compound growth rate of 23% [11]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw a slight increase in trading volume, with growth and dividend stocks leading the gains [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.28% to 3236.03 points, down 3.45% from the end of 2024, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.66% to 2051.35 points, down 4.21% from the end of 2024 [2] - The communication sector rose by 2.47%, while the food and beverage sector fell by 0.85% [2] - The market trading volume reached 12929.87 billion yuan, an increase of 811.01 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] - The two-finance balance continued to rebound, but the market still lacks incremental funds, leading to a low-level oscillation [2] - Long-term policy increments and shifts are accelerating, providing support for market sentiment and potential upward space after short-term adjustments [2] Daily Review Key Macroeconomic Data and Policies - The central bank conducted a 3405 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.50% to maintain liquidity in the banking system [9] - The onshore RMB to USD exchange rate closed at 7.3317, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day [9] - The State Council issued regulations to standardize intermediary services for public stock offerings, effective from February 15 [9] - In December 2024, bill financing surged to a record high, becoming the main support for corporate financing [9] - China's shipbuilding industry saw a 13.8% year-on-year increase in completed shipbuilding volume and a 58.8% increase in new orders in 2024 [10] - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to strengthen export controls on strategic resources with dual-use properties [10] Equity Market - The A-share market experienced a slight increase in trading volume, with growth and dividend stocks leading the gains [11] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.28% to 3236.03 points, down 3.45% from the end of 2024, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.66% to 2051.35 points, down 4.21% from the end of 2024 [11] - The communication sector rose by 2.47%, while the food and beverage sector fell by 0.85% [11] - The market trading volume reached 12929.87 billion yuan, an increase of 811.01 billion yuan from the previous trading day [11] - The two-finance balance continued to rebound, but the market still lacks incremental funds, leading to a low-level oscillation [12] - Long-term policy increments and shifts are accelerating, providing support for market sentiment and potential upward space after short-term adjustments [12] Sector Performance - The communication sector rose by 2.47% due to expectations of new CPO switch products from Nvidia at the GTC conference in March 2025 [13] - The retail sector strengthened as Guangdong supported the establishment of duty-free shops in Guangzhou and Shenzhen [13] - Precious metals rose as CMX gold futures reached 2726.50 USD/ounce and CMX silver futures stood at 31.81 USD/ounce [13] - The textile and apparel sector gained strength following the State Council's measures to promote cultural and tourism consumption [13] - The coal sector rose due to reduced supply from some coal companies ahead of the Spring Festival and continued winter demand [13] - The non-ferrous metals sector increased as China's State Grid announced an 890 billion USD power investment, pushing copper prices above 76000 yuan/ton [13] - The petrochemical sector rose as China Petroleum introduced the APS3.0 system to reduce production costs and invested 21.3 billion yuan in a new ethylene project in Shanghai [13] - The engineering machinery sector gained as Komatsu's excavator operating hours in China reached 108 hours in December 2024, a 19.5% year-on-year increase [13] Charts and Data - Figure 1 shows the daily, weekly, and annual changes in key indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [18] - Figure 2 displays the total A-share trading volume over time [18] - Figure 3 ranks the daily changes in primary industries, with communication leading at a 2.47% increase [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Views - The new regulatory rating system for insurance companies is expected to benefit well-managed leading companies [1] - The classification-based regulatory approach will strengthen risk prevention and promote rational and compliant operations in the insurance industry [4] - Both liability and asset sides are showing improvements, with low valuations and low fund holdings making the sector both offensive and defensive [4] Regulatory Framework - The regulatory rating system applies to all types of insurance institutions, including insurance groups, property insurers, life insurers, and reinsurers [4] - The rating framework uses a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, with corporate governance and solvency carrying the highest weights (≥15%) [4] - The rating results are divided into 6 levels (1-5 and S), with a "one-vote veto" mechanism for companies with excessive single risks [4] - Regulatory measures vary based on rating levels, with more stringent controls for lower-rated companies [4] Market Outlook - Strong savings demand is expected to continue, with pressure on interest rate spreads gradually easing [4] - The recent rise in 10-year government bond yields to around 1.66% may alleviate pressure on new fixed-income investment returns [4] - The insurance sector's valuation remains low, with 2025E P/EV ranging from 0.49x to 0.77x [4] Company Valuations - China Life Insurance (601318) has a 2025E P/EV of 0.77x and P/E of 9.53x [6] - Ping An Insurance (601318) has a 2025E P/EV of 0.56x and P/E of 8.70x [6] - China Pacific Insurance (601601) has a 2025E P/EV of 0.49x and P/E of 5.94x [6] - New China Life Insurance (601336) has a 2025E P/EV of 0.52x and P/E of 5.48x [6] Industry Performance - The insurance sector has shown significant growth, with a 61% increase from January 2024 to January 2025 [3] - The sector outperformed the CSI 300 index during the same period [3]