Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its commercial aerospace special gas market share through the development of its Hainan commercial aerospace launch site and strategic partnerships with rocket companies [7] - The first phase of the Hainan launch site has been completed, with core products undergoing multiple rounds of launch verification, including successful applications of liquid hydrogen in various rocket launches [7] - The company plans to expand its production capacity in the second phase to meet the increasing demand for special gases in commercial aerospace, with an estimated total investment of approximately 300 million yuan [7] - The company aims to establish a professional brand in aerospace special gases, anticipating a continuous increase in market share as demand grows [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to be 22,047 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of -17.01%, followed by 24,392 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 10.64% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,684 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 28.93%, and is projected to reach 1,557 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 7.52% [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.42 yuan in 2024 and 2.24 yuan in 2025 [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is estimated to be 16.67 for 2024 and 18.03 for 2025 [1][8]

算力服务器出货高增拉动光模块需求，海外 扩产自动化设备成为必选项 证券研究报告·行业点评报告·机械设备 机械设备行业点评报告 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ AI 算力服务器需求持续上修，拉动光模块需求 AI 巨头资本开支持续加码，服务器出货量预期持续上修。2025 年 11 月 Google Gemini 3 横空出世，在 Benchmark 测试得分上实现断层领先， 展现出超市场预期的得分能力和多模态理解能力。一方面，2026 年为英伟 达 Rubin 架构量产时点；另一方面，Google Gemini 3 的超预期表现拉动市 场对 TPU 服务器关注度，未来 Google TPU 服务器有望从自用转向外售， 出货量预期持续提升。 光模块为算力 Sacle Out 核心组件。为打造集中高效的算力集群，光通 信为必选项，光模块作为光电信号转换的核心部件，是算力集群建设的核 心必选项。一方面，英伟达服务器将从 GB200/GB300 向 Rubin 架构演进， 提出了更高的信号传输带宽需求；另一方面，谷歌 TPU 服务器出货量预期 提升，也将带动光模块需求持 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][7] - The main contributors to this growth were strong consumer spending and a reduction in inventory drag, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][7] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market initially reacted with concerns of economic overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][8] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates a significant cooling in Q4 2025 GDP growth due to the impact of government shutdowns, with short-term interest rate cut expectations largely dependent on upcoming employment and inflation data [1][8] Fixed Income - The report notes that during the week of December 15-19, 2025, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose slightly from 1.8425% to 1.835% [2][9] - It highlights that the bond market's response to economic data has been muted, with sentiment remaining weak despite the release of disappointing economic indicators [9] - The report suggests that the bond market may face challenges in the first half of 2026, but there are potential opportunities for recovery due to expected policy easing and adjustments in fund redemption rates [9][11] Industry Analysis - The report focuses on Baba Foods (605338), emphasizing its multi-faceted growth strategy and the successful performance of its new store formats, particularly the hand-made soup dumplings [19][20] - The company has seen significant sales increases in both dine-in and takeout formats, with some trial stores achieving daily sales of over 10,000 yuan, indicating a strong market validation of its new store types [19][20] - The report projects that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 290 million yuan in 2025, 330 million yuan in 2026, and 400 million yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +4%, +13%, and +22% respectively [19][20] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company, suggesting that the growth potential of its new store formats has not yet been fully reflected in its market valuation [19][20]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20251224 25Q3 美国 GDP：过时的数据，过度的反应 ——美国 2025 年三季度 GDP 数据点评 2025 年 12 月 24 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《2026 年转债策略：从收益增强转向 风险平衡》 2025-12-22 《技术帖：如何量化央行购金对金价 的影响？》 2025-12-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：25Q3 美国 GDP 季环比折年增长+4.3%，大幅好于彭博分析 师一致预期的+3.3%与亚特兰大联储 GDPNow 的+3.5%。从结构看，消 费强劲与库存拖累 ...

- The report primarily focuses on the investment strategies and asset allocation of fund manager Hu Zhongyuan, emphasizing industry beta returns and flexible asset rotation across equity and fixed income markets [1][10][12] - Hu Zhongyuan's equity strategy targets industry beta returns rather than individual alpha, with a focus on sectors with clear growth trends such as AI and renewable energy, while maintaining diversification to control drawdowns [12][29][36] - The fixed income strategy employs cash enhancement through reverse repo and short-term interest rate bonds, complemented by high-grade credit bonds and duration management to mitigate interest rate volatility risks [12][53][61] - Historical performance analysis shows Hu Zhongyuan's funds consistently outperforming benchmarks, with notable returns in both equity and fixed income allocations, supported by effective macro timing and sector rotation [18][22][50] - The Sharpe model analysis indicates a shift in fund style from small-cap growth to large-cap growth starting in 2025, reflecting strategic adjustments in response to market conditions [50][52] - Bond allocation trends reveal a preference for high-grade credit bonds (AAA-rated) and government bonds, with dynamic adjustments in duration and leverage based on macroeconomic factors [61][63][64]

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-12-24 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20251222：2026 年转债策略：从收益增强转向风险平衡 2025 年转债市场呈现"平价和溢价率双击"的大贝塔行情（最优解），展 望 2026 年"高估值+强赎倾向+次新走妖"或将成为自身掣肘，转债资产 的定位应当从"权益替代"转向"债市补充收益"（次优解）。正股层面， 慢牛预期下平价或仍可成为正向收益贡献，但各主线的交易逻辑逐步发 生改变，也将影响转债交易特性，一方面科技成长逐步从"0-1"向"1- N"过渡，市场也将从"主题投资普涨"过渡到"去伪存真、产业链供需 重塑环节趋多"，对应转债内部表现或更分化、抱团更集中，具体个券的 价格和溢价率容忍度或会进一步提高；另一方面，通胀抬升和反内卷进入 "深入整治"阶段，转债可利用"非对称性"适度进行反向投资。 #大类资产：技术帖：如何量化央行购金对金价的影响？ 核心观点：我们根据过去黄金 ETF 规模与金价的线性关系倒推出金价隐 含的黄金 ETF 需求。统计结果显示，投资需求每增加 1 吨，金价上涨 0.46$/oz。2 ...

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·电池 天赐材料（002709） 电解液盈利乘势而起，固态材料执笔未来 2025 年 12 月 23 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 15,405 | 12,518 | 15,664 | 30,031 | 37,609 | | 同比（%） | (30.97) | (18.74) | 25.13 | 91.71 | 25.23 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,890.62 | 483.93 | 1,221.48 | 6,490.01 | 7,858.11 | | 同比（%） | (66.92) | (74.40) | 152.41 | 431.32 | 21.08 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.93 | 0.24 | 0.60 | 3.19 | 3.86 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 41.77 | 163.20 | 64.66 | 12.1 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20251223 其二，港股配置仍然需要控制仓位。我们担心一月美股科技仍有回调风 险。一是如果 IEEPA 法案被判违法，会对美股短期产生负面影响；二 是，市场对一月美股科技财报仍持谨慎观察态度，可预见的是投资者对 企业 Capex 和盈利兑现会更为严格。如不及预期，美股科技可能会有回 调，港股科技情绪会受影响。 其三，从现在开始到明年 1 月，港股处确定性上行前期，仍需红利作为 底仓。南向潜在增量资金保险和固收+更偏向价值红利。科技成长类股 票行情启动受海外影响会较为颠簸。 ◼ 美股：本周纳指领涨 0.5%，标普 500 上涨 0.1%，道指下跌 0.7%。行业 上，材料、金融领涨，能源、日常消费品领跌。美国通胀超预期放缓，就 业降温持续，增强 2026 年降息预期，美股小幅度收涨。具体来看： 其一，通胀降温迹象浮现，增强 2026 年进一步降息的希望。美国 11 月 通胀同比上涨 2.7%，低于预期的上涨 3.1%；核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6%， 低于市场预期的 3%，创下了 2021 年 3 月月以来最低水平，显示通胀压 力进一步缓解。结构上看，服务方面， ...

证券研究报告·行业研究·汽车与零部件 客车12月月报： 11月内外需同环比修复，期待年底翘尾行情 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2025年12月23日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 推荐客车板块，优选【宇通+金龙】 2 ◼ 客车这轮大周期驱动因素是什么？一句话总结：客车代表中国汽车制造业将成为【技术 输出】的世界龙头。这不是梦想而是会真真切切反应到报表层面。海外市场业绩贡献对 客车行业在3-5年会至少再造一个中国市场。背后支撑因素： （ ➢ 1）天时：符合国家【中特估】大方向，客车是【一带一路】的有力践行者，已有10余 年的出海经验，在新的国际形势变化下，将进一步跟紧国家战略，让中国优势制造业 【走出去】。 ➢ 2）地利：客车的技术与产品已经具备世界一流水平。新能源客车产品维度，中国客车 已领先海外竞争对手。传统客车维度，技术已不亚于海外且具备更好性价比及服务。 ➢ 3）人和：国内市场价格战结束不会成为拖累反而会共振。过去6-7年国内客车"高铁冲 击+新能源公交透支+三年疫情"三重因素 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·家电零部件Ⅱ 三花智控（002050） 2025 年业绩预告点评：业绩略超市场预期， 机器人量产在即 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 24,558 | 27,947 | 33,505 | 40,056 | 50,683 | | 同比（%） | 15.04 | 13.80 | 19.89 | 19.55 | 26.53 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,921 | 3,099 | 4,210 | 5,093 | 6,794 | | 同比（%） | 13.51 | 6.10 | 35.85 | 20.98 | 33.39 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.69 | 0.74 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 1.61 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 65.43 | 61.67 | 45.40 | 37.52 | 28.13 | [Table_Tag] [T ...