证券研究报告·行业深度报告·电子 电子行业深度报告 AI 基建，光板铜电—光&铜篇 主流算力芯片 Scale up&out 方案全解析 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 产业链相关公司： 光芯片：长光华芯、源杰科技、仕佳光子等 铜缆：华丰科技、兆龙互连、沃尔核材等 ◼ 风险提示：算力互联需求不及预期，客户拓展及份额提升不及预期，产 品研发及量产落地不及预期，行业竞争加剧 -15% -8% -1% 6% 13% 20% 27% 34% 41% 48% 2024/12/27 2025/4/27 2025/8/26 2025/12/25 电子 沪深300 相关研究 《从云端算力国产化到端侧 AI 爆发， 电子行业的戴维斯双击时刻——电子 行业 2026 年投资策略》 2025-12-10 2025 年 12 月 27 日 证券分析师 陈海进 执业证书：S0600525020001 chenhj@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 解承堯 执业证书：S0600125020001 xiechy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 《Credo 营收超预期&Marvell 收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - The implementation of the new duty-free policy in Hainan since November 1 has led to a significant increase in duty-free sales, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27.1% in November [4][9] - Following the closure of the island on December 18, the duty-free market in Sanya has seen a surge, with sales exceeding 1 billion yuan for five consecutive days, and a total sales amount of 5.35 billion yuan from December 18 to 22, marking a 50.3% year-on-year increase [4][9] - The average transaction value for duty-free sales in November 2025 reached 7,227 yuan, a 41% increase compared to the same period last year [4][10] - The report suggests monitoring companies that benefit from the duty-free policy, including China Duty Free Group, Hainan Airlines Group, and Wangfujing [4][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The retail industry has shown a positive trend with the duty-free sales in Hainan experiencing a notable increase post-policy implementation [4][9] - The average price of high-value items like gold and smartphones has decreased significantly compared to mainland prices, contributing to higher average transaction values [4][10] Market Performance - The retail index increased by 10.00% year-to-date, while the broader market indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.26% [11][12] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies in the retail sector, highlighting their market capitalization and projected earnings [18][19]

绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20251222-20251226） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20251222-20251226）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行绿色债券 28 只，合计发行规模约 227.61 亿元，较上周增加 16.51 亿元。发行年限 多为 3 年；发行人性质为中央国有企业、央企子公司、地方国有企业、 大型民企；主体评级多为 AAA、AA+级；发行人地域为上海市、内蒙古 自治区、浙江省、湖北省、广东省、贵州省、北京市、重庆市、江西省、 甘肃省、天津市、山西省；发行债券种类为交易商协会 ABN、企业 ABS、 商业银行普通债、一般公司债、超短期融资券、中期票据、定向工具 （PPN）、私募公司债。 证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20251227 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20251222-20251226）绿色债券周成交额合计 645 亿元，较上周减 少 156 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为非金公司信用债、金融机 构债和利率债，分别为 302 亿元、298 亿元和 50 亿元；分发行期限来 看，3Y 以下绿色债 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·保险Ⅱ 保险Ⅱ行业点评报告 保险行业 11 月保费：产寿单月保费增速均有 改善，继续看好寿险开门红表现 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：长端利率趋势性下行；新单增长不及预期。 2025 年 12 月 27 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 曹锟 执业证书：S0600524120004 caok@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 25% 2024/12/27 2025/4/27 2025/8/26 2025/12/25 保险Ⅱ 沪深300 东吴证券研究所 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 11 月单月人身险公司保费降幅收窄，继续看好 2026 年负债端增长。1） 2025 年 1-11 月人身险原保费 44206 亿元，同比+9.2%，规模保费 49969 亿元，同比+8.4%。2）11 月单月人身险公司原保费规模达 1548 亿元， 同比-2.4%，降幅较 10 月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a weekly data tracking of secondary - capital bonds from December 22, 2025, to December 26, 2025, covering primary - market issuance, secondary - market trading, and valuation deviation of individual bonds [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary - Market Issuance - During the week from December 22, 2025, to December 26, 2025, 8 new secondary - capital bonds were issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets, with a total issuance scale of 53.15 billion yuan. The issuance term was 10 years, and the issuers included local state - owned enterprises, private enterprises, other enterprises, and central financial enterprises. The issuer regions were Sichuan, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Beijing, and Hunan, and the subject ratings were AA +, AA -, A +, and AAA [1] 3.2 Secondary - Market Trading - **Trading Volume**: The total weekly trading volume of secondary - capital bonds was approximately 272.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 1 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The top three bonds in terms of trading volume were 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 03A(BC) (19.41 billion yuan), 25 China Construction Bank Secondary Capital Bond 03BC (9.691 billion yuan), and 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01BC (8.304 billion yuan). By issuer region, the top three in trading volume were Beijing (about 217.1 billion yuan), Shanghai (about 19.3 billion yuan), and Guangdong (about 10 billion yuan) [2] - **Yield to Maturity**: As of December 26, for 5Y secondary - capital bonds, the yield - to - maturity changes of AAA -, AA +, and AA - rated bonds compared to the previous week were 1.19BP, 0.00BP, and 0.00BP respectively; for 7Y bonds, the changes were - 1.05BP, - 1.52BP, and - 1.52BP; for 10Y bonds, the changes were - 1.92BP, - 0.95BP, and - 0.95BP [2] 3.3 Valuation Deviation of Top 30 Individual Bonds - **Overall Situation**: The overall valuation deviation of the weekly average trading price of secondary - capital bonds was not significant. The proportion of discount transactions was less than that of premium transactions, but the discount magnitude was greater than the premium magnitude [3] - **Discount Bonds**: The top three bonds with the highest discount rates were 22 Shengjing Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (- 0.5385%), 24 Chang'an Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (- 0.4596%), and 25 Jilin Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (- 0.3868%). The Zhongzheng implied ratings were mainly AAA -, AA, and AA +, and the regions were mainly Beijing, Tianjin, and Guangdong [3] - **Premium Bonds**: The top three bonds with the highest premium rates were 23 Huaxing Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.3868%), 22 China Construction Bank Secondary Capital Bond 02B (0.2792%), and 23 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01B (0.2319%). The Zhongzheng implied ratings were mainly AAA -, AA, and AA -, and the regions were mainly Beijing, Shanghai, and Sichuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Conant Optical (02276.HK), indicating a positive outlook for investment [1]. Core Insights - Conant Optical is a leading global manufacturer of lenses, with significant growth potential in the smart glasses market. The company has established a strong position in the resin lens sector and is expanding its international presence [11][70]. - The lens industry is experiencing steady growth, driven by increasing demand for corrective lenses among children and the elderly, as well as the rising popularity of smart glasses. The market for high-refractive lenses is expected to grow significantly [30][40]. - The company has a robust business model, with a mature sales network covering over 90 countries, and is well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming boom in the smart glasses sector [11][70]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Conant Optical is a leading resin lens manufacturer in China, with production bases in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Japan. The company has been actively expanding its smart glasses business and has established partnerships with several global technology giants [11][70]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with the founder holding 44.33% and GoerTek as the second-largest shareholder with 20.03%. This collaboration is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in the XR (Extended Reality) sector [13]. 2. Industry Growth - The global lens market is projected to grow from $4.5 billion in 2020 to $6.2 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 8.3%. The Chinese lens market is also expanding, with sales expected to reach 20.72 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 11.5% [31][35]. - The demand for functional lenses, such as blue light blocking and anti-fatigue lenses, is increasing due to changing consumer needs. The market for high-refractive lenses is still underdeveloped in China, presenting significant growth opportunities [46]. 3. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a CAGR of 17.2% from 2020 to 2024, and net profit growth at a CAGR of 35.2% during the same period. The gross margin has improved from 35.0% in 2020 to 41.0% in the first half of 2025 [18][26]. - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 1.76 billion yuan, with net profit expected to reach 327.02 million yuan, indicating a solid financial outlook [1]. 4. Smart Glasses Market Potential - The smart glasses market is at a critical turning point, with major tech companies like Alibaba and Amazon entering the space. The demand for smart glasses is expected to surge, with global shipments projected to reach 20 million units by 2028 [59][61]. - Traditional lens manufacturers are well-positioned to benefit from this trend, as the need for high-refractive lenses in smart glasses increases. The integration of advanced technologies in smart glasses is expected to enhance the value of lens products [66][67].

Core Conclusions - The overall beta of the automotive parts sector is expected to weaken in 2026, with structural opportunities being more favorable than total opportunities. The focus should be on "smart driving (L2++/L3/L4) + liquid cooling (AIDC) + humanoid robots" as the three main technology lines, along with the long-term certainty of "going overseas" [2][34] - EPS perspective: 1) Seek alpha that can traverse cycles in the existing market, prioritizing product companies with high competitiveness that can increase market share and companies that can enhance ASP by entering high-value tracks through internal and external expansion. 2) Globalization opens up growth space for automotive parts, with a significant increase in growth potential and risk resistance by prioritizing capacity layout in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [2][34] - Recommended companies include Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Minth Group, Joyson Electronics, and Xingyuan Zhuomag, with New Spring Co. as a focus [2] EPS Dimension Outlook - The automotive parts sector's beta is expected to be weak due to domestic total factors in 2026, with structural opportunities preferred over total opportunities. The focus should be on high-competitiveness product companies that can increase market share and those that can enhance ASP by entering high-value tracks through internal and external expansion [34] - Globalization is expected to open up growth space for automotive parts, with incremental orders mainly coming from Southeast Asia and European new energy markets [34] Market Review - The automotive parts sector's overall performance in 2025 was significantly influenced by AI and robotics, with the sector index outperforming the market in the first half of the year. However, it faced challenges in the second half due to U.S. tariffs and price wars [11][19] - The sector's valuation fluctuated, starting from approximately 21 times earnings at the beginning of 2025, peaking at 32 times by September, and then adjusting back down due to tariff impacts and slower-than-expected robotics progress [11][19] Globalization and Market Expansion - The global light vehicle production is projected to reach 78.82 million units in 2024, with overseas markets, particularly in Europe and North America, being significant contributors [52][57] - Chinese automotive parts companies are increasingly following domestic car manufacturers in their overseas expansion, leveraging cost control and response efficiency advantages [60][61] Recommended Companies and Focus Areas - Companies recommended for investment include Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Minth Group, and others that are positioned to benefit from high competitiveness and market share growth [2][34] - Focus areas include smart driving technologies, liquid cooling systems, and humanoid robotics, which are expected to drive growth in the automotive parts sector [2][34]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Dou Shen Education, for the first time [1]. Core Insights - Dou Shen Education is positioned as a leader in aesthetic education, focusing on creating an "AI + Education" ecosystem. The company aims to leverage its self-developed AI models to enhance educational services and product offerings [1][10]. - The company has undergone significant restructuring and is now focusing on non-subject quality education and AI education, which has led to a return to profitability and growth in revenue and net profit [20][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Dou Shen Education, formerly known as Li Si Chen, has transformed its business model to focus on K12 non-subject quality education, utilizing AI technology to reconstruct educational services [13]. - The company has a strong management team with extensive experience in the education sector, led by its actual controller, Dou Xin, who holds 18.29% of the shares [18]. 2. Market Dynamics - The education and training sector is experiencing a significant demand, with the number of college entrance exam candidates increasing from 9.4 million in 2017 to 13.42 million in 2024, while the admission rate has decreased from 43.7% to 37.0% during the same period [34]. - The report highlights a supply-demand imbalance in the education sector, with rising prices expected due to increased competition and a recovery in participation rates post-regulatory changes [36]. 3. AI Education Strategy - Dou Shen Education has developed a product matrix that includes AI-driven educational tools such as "AI Dual Teacher" and "AI Super Training Ground," which aim to enhance the learning experience and efficiency [15][19]. - The company has established a dual-driven model combining AI software services and hardware terminals, creating a closed-loop learning ecosystem that covers user needs across various scenarios [10][12]. 4. Financial Projections - The report forecasts total revenue for Dou Shen Education to reach 1,050.6 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 38.82%. Net profit is expected to be 90.62 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 33.92% compared to the previous year [1]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.04 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 165.33 at the current market price [1]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that AI technology is breaking the traditional constraints of education, allowing for high-quality, large-scale, and personalized learning experiences that were previously unattainable [51]. - Dou Shen Education's unique data assets and knowledge graphs create a competitive barrier that is difficult for competitors to replicate in the short term [10][12].

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·食品加工 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,103 | 3,240 | 3,696 | 4,365 | 5,047 | | 同比（%） | 3.10 | 4.43 | 14.07 | 18.11 | 15.63 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 276.71 | 341.99 | 442.23 | 502.57 | 584.72 | | 同比（%） | 7.50 | 23.59 | 29.31 | 13.64 | 16.35 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.45 | 0.56 | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.96 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 44.15 | 35.72 | 27.63 | 24.31 | 20.89 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dw ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][7] - The strong consumer spending and reduced inventory drag were the main contributors to this growth, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][7] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market's initial reaction suggested overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][8] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates a significant cooling in Q4 2025 GDP growth due to government shutdown impacts, with short-term interest rate cut expectations depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [1][8] Fixed Income - The report notes that during the week of December 15-19, 2025, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose slightly from 1.8425% to 1.835% [2][9] - It emphasizes that the bond market's response to economic data has been muted, reflecting a focus on policy expectations rather than fundamental economic performance [9] - The report suggests that while there is limited immediate need for significant liquidity release through reserve requirement cuts, the possibility of easing policies in early 2026 remains [11] Industry Insights - Jiufeng Energy is focusing on expanding its commercial aerospace special gas market share through the development of its launch site and partnerships with rocket companies [19][20] - The company has completed the first phase of its Hainan commercial aerospace launch site project, with core products undergoing multiple launch validations, indicating a strong operational track record [19][20] - Jiufeng Energy's profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 1.56 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.13 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.0, 15.6, and 13.2 [19][20]