Macro Strategy - The economic growth target of 5% for the year was successfully achieved, with Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% and nominal GDP growth at 3.8%, indicating a narrowing decline in the GDP deflator index from -1.1% to -0.7% [1][18] - Economic growth was primarily driven by exports and services, with service sector GDP growth at 5.4% and export growth at 6.1%, while fixed asset investment declined by 3.8% [1][18] - Q4 prices showed signs of recovery but remained weak, with actual GDP growth at 4.5% and nominal GDP growth at 3.8% [1][18] Industry Insights - The aerospace sector is highlighted as a long-term strategic focus under the 15th Five-Year Plan, with continued attention on semiconductor equipment, particularly in advanced processes and domestic replacements [5] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, supported by policy and performance metrics [24] - The semiconductor equipment ETF is recommended as a key investment target due to the clear expansion signals from TSMC [5][24] Company Recommendations - **Shouhua Gas (300483)**: Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.02/3.16/5.46 billion yuan, with a significant growth rate of 114%/210%/73%, and a "buy" rating is assigned [12] - **Keda Technology (002518)**: Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 6.4/11.2/15.3 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 63%/74%/36%, maintaining a "buy" rating [13] - **Hunan YN (301358)**: The company has shown a clear profit turning point with revised profit expectations of 12.8/35.0/47.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to a "buy" rating [14] - **Alibaba-W (09988.HK)**: The company is expected to maintain high growth in its cloud business, with projected non-GAAP net profits for FY2026/FY2027/FY2028 at 101,525/141,564/184,647 million yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [16] - **China Taiping (00966.HK)**: The company is projected to see a significant increase in net profits for 2025-2027, with a "buy" rating based on its low valuation metrics [17]

北交所定期报告 20260120 三部门：将个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施 期限延长至 2026 年底，北证 50 下跌 2.00% 2026 年 01 月 20 日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 陈哲晓 执业证书：S0600124080015 sh_chenzhx@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究： 《沪深北交易所提高融资保证金最低 比例，北证 50 上涨 0.98%》 2026-01-14 《工信部印发<推动工业互联网平台 高质量发展行动方案（2026—2028 年）>，北证 50 下跌 2.50%》 内容目录 | 1. 资本市场新闻 | | --- | | 2. 行业新闻 | | 3. 市场表现 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a pioneer in deep coalbed methane extraction, with significant potential for revenue growth driven by resource and technological advantages. The company is expected to experience a performance inflection point [3][8]. - The company has successfully transformed into an upstream natural gas producer, focusing on natural gas operations after divesting its gardening business. This strategic shift is expected to enhance revenue growth and profitability [13][20]. - The deep coalbed methane industry is entering a phase of large-scale development, with deep resources being three times more abundant than shallow resources. Technological advancements are expected to reduce extraction costs significantly [37][42]. Summary by Sections Company Transformation and Growth Potential - The company has a sevenfold potential for production increase in its self-produced gas, with fiscal support further enhancing profits. The Shilou West Block, adjacent to the Daji Block, has a designed natural gas production capacity of 3.5 billion cubic meters per year, with a significant production release space compared to 2024 [3][50]. - The company has established a joint project team with experienced partners to facilitate the development of the Shilou West Block, which is expected to contribute to substantial revenue growth [3][50]. Industry Outlook - The deep coalbed methane sector is characterized by a promising outlook, with technological breakthroughs leading to reduced costs. The industry has transitioned into a deep-scale development phase since 2021, with significant advancements in exploration and extraction technologies [37][42]. - The report highlights that the resource potential of deep coalbed methane is substantial, with estimates indicating that the resource volume at depths greater than 1500 meters is approximately 69 trillion cubic meters, significantly higher than that of shallow coalbed methane [42][45]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 114%, and further growth expected in subsequent years [1][8]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will improve significantly, reaching 1.88 yuan by 2027, reflecting the expected operational improvements and market conditions [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a pioneer in deep coalbed methane extraction, with significant potential for revenue growth driven by resource and technological advantages [3]. - The company has successfully transformed into an upstream natural gas producer, focusing on natural gas operations after divesting its gardening business [13]. - The deep coalbed methane industry is expected to see substantial growth, with technological advancements leading to reduced extraction costs [37]. Company Overview - The company has a designed natural gas production capacity of 3.5 billion cubic meters per year, with a sevenfold potential increase in output compared to 2024 [3]. - The company is set to benefit from government subsidies, which have increased the subsidy coefficient for coalbed methane from 1.2 to 1.5, enhancing profitability [3]. - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan to lock in revenue growth, with performance targets set for 2024-2026 based on revenue growth rates [10][22]. Industry Analysis - The deep coalbed methane sector is entering a phase of large-scale development, with deep resources estimated to be three times more abundant than shallow resources [37][40]. - Technological breakthroughs in extraction methods are expected to significantly lower costs, with projected reductions in per-unit extraction costs from 0.85 yuan to 0.53 yuan [48]. - The report highlights that the deep coalbed methane resources in China are substantial, with significant production potential demonstrated in various basins [42][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The secondary - market trends of industrial bond sub - industries show a divergence in the correlation between primary and secondary markets. This divergence may be due to differences in supply among industries and differences in bond liquidity and trading popularity within each industry. If an industry has many issuing entities with strong willingness and ability to issue bonds and is in a good development trend, the probability of a synchronous resonance relationship between primary - market supply and secondary - market demand is relatively high, which can improve the accuracy of judging trading signals of narrowing spreads from daily net financing [1][14]. - Most industries have trading signals transmitted from primary - market supply to secondary - market demand, including comprehensive, non - ferrous metals, and others. Some industries show a stronger negative correlation between primary - market supply and secondary - market demand, such as comprehensive and non - ferrous metals. Some industries have a weak correlation between daily net financing and daily spreads, including communication and food and beverage [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Bond Sub - industries Show Divergence in Primary - Secondary Market Trend Correlation - **Research Method**: Classify industrial bond issuers by Shenwan primary industries, calculate the daily net financing and daily credit spreads of each sub - industry from January 1, 2025, to December 19, 2025, to observe the correlation between primary - market supply and secondary - market demand [12]. - **Divergence Performance**: Most industries have trading signals transmitted from primary - market supply to secondary - market demand, while some do not show this feature significantly [13]. - **Reasons for Divergence**: Differences in supply among industries are related to the number, size, and life - cycle stage of issuing entities. Differences in bond liquidity and trading popularity within industries are related to the scale of outstanding bonds, valuation levels, and event catalysts [14]. 1.1. Industries with Obvious Correlation - **Comprehensive Industry**: From January to March 2025, daily net financing decreased and daily spreads increased; from March to June, daily net financing increased and daily spreads decreased; from June to December, both were in a low - level oscillation [21]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Industry**: From January to July 2025, daily net financing increased and daily spreads decreased; from July to September, daily net financing decreased and daily spreads increased; from October to December, both were in a low - level oscillation [25]. - **Other Industries**: Similar analysis is conducted for industries such as pharmaceutical biology, social services, and others, with different trends in different time intervals [27][30][32]. - **Common Features**: These industries generally have a large scale of outstanding bonds and high institutional investor attention, which is conducive to the transmission of primary - market supply changes to secondary - market spread changes [3][87]. 1.2. Industries with General Correlation - **Industries Included**: Communication, food and beverage, and other industries have a weak correlation between daily net financing and daily spreads, and the linkage and transmission between primary - and secondary - market indicators are relatively weak [4][13]. - **Reasons**: These industries have low participation in the bond market, and their secondary - market trading demand is more affected by overall bond - market trends, industry risk premiums, and liquidity premiums. Different types of industries have specific reasons for the weak correlation [4][90][91].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - Overseas, gold continues to rise, and the marginal disorder of the interest rate cut path may bring short - term stagnation points. In the medium - to - long - term, the global geopolitical situation is in the "G0" era, with a higher probability of frequent local black - swan events. The structure of fiscal policy efforts and monetary policy support remains unchanged, and the outlook remains bullish. Attention should be paid to the crowding - out effect of the strong AI capital cycle on traditional sectors, and monetary and fiscal policies are expected to remain double - loose. Supply - demand gaps may appear in both traditional and pan - AI technology sectors, with more attention on supply elasticity in the former and demand elasticity in the latter, and then combine price with volume to find structural allocation opportunities [1][37] - The domestic equity market is generally volatile, and the convertible bond market is also highly differentiated, with high - price and small - and medium - cap styles outperforming, showing significant structural features. Investors are advised to adopt a traditional "dumbbell" layout in terms of style, investing in low - price (high - probability) and high - price (high - odds) targets, and diversify across industries. Confirm the performance bottom in traditional sectors and seize the rotation and spread of pan - main themes in growth sectors, focusing on bottom - up and micro - alpha factors [1][37] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Market Review 1.1. Equity Market Generally Rose - From January 12th to January 16th, the equity market generally rose. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to close at 4101.91 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14% to close at 14281.08 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.00% to close at 3361.02 points, and the CSI 300 fell 0.57% to close at 4731.87 points. The average daily turnover of the two markets increased by approximately 9025.95 billion yuan to 32408.73 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 38.60% [6][8] - On different trading days, the market trends and sector performances varied. For example, on January 12th, the three major indices rose, and sectors such as AIGC and文化传媒 led the gains; on January 13th, they fell, and sectors like AI applications and precious metals led the gains [9] - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 13 industries closed up this week, with 4 industries rising more than 2%. The computer, electronics, non - ferrous metals, media, and machinery industries led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, coal, banking, and non - bank finance industries led the losses [13] 1.2. Convertible Bond Market Generally Fell - From January 12th to January 16th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 19 industries closed up, with 6 industries rising more than 2%. The computer, machinery, electronics, media, and communication industries led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, transportation, and non - bank finance industries led the losses [15] - The average daily turnover of the convertible bond market was 1045.19 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 533.79 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of - 33.81%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of turnover were Jiamei Convertible Bond, Dingjie Convertible Bond, etc. The average turnover of the top ten convertible bonds reached 110.24 billion yuan, with the first - place turnover reaching 238.54 billion yuan [15] - Approximately 60.57% of individual convertible bonds rose, about 21.13% rose in the 0 - 1% range, and 27.84% rose more than 2% [15] - In terms of the conversion premium rate, the overall market conversion premium rate increased, and there were different changes in different price, parity, rating, and scale intervals. In terms of industry, 8 industries' conversion premium rates widened, and 20 industries' conversion parities increased [21][26][30] 1.3. Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - This week, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were negative, and the convertible bond's weekly increase was greater. The convertible bond market turnover increased by 10.32% week - on - week and was at the 93.50% quantile level since 2022; the underlying stock market turnover increased by 23.93% week - on - week and was at the 99.50% quantile level since 2022. Overall, the underlying stock market trading sentiment was better [34] - On different trading days, the trading sentiment of the stock and bond markets also varied. For example, on January 12th, the underlying stock market trading sentiment was better; on January 13th, the convertible bond market trading sentiment was better [35] 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Maintain the previous view of focusing on the crowding - out effect of the strong AI capital cycle on traditional sectors, with double - loose monetary and fiscal policies. Look for structural allocation opportunities by considering supply and demand elasticities in different sectors [1][37] - For convertible bonds, adopt a "dumbbell" layout in style and diversify across industries. Confirm the performance bottom in traditional sectors and seize pan - main theme rotation and spread in growth sectors [1][37] - The top ten high - rated, medium - and low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for conversion parity premium rate repair next week are Chutian Convertible Bond, Lizhong Convertible Bond, etc. [1][38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 600-660 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.21% to 67.43% [2] - The data center business is steadily growing, with projected revenue of over 3 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20% [2] - The new energy business is recovering, with expected revenue of 2 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and storage business revenue expected to nearly double [2] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is forecasted to be 5,281 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 26.99% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 643.82 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 63.32% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 1.11 yuan per share in 2025 [1] Revenue Breakdown - The data center segment is expected to generate over 10 billion yuan in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40% [2] - The storage revenue in Q4 2025 is projected to be around 4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50% [2] Profitability Metrics - The company’s profitability forecast for 2025 has been raised to 6.4 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 50, 29, and 21 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The gross margin is expected to be 29.75% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 12.19% [9] Market Position - The company has made significant breakthroughs in the North American market, with new orders expected to contribute significantly to revenue in 2026 [3] - Collaborations with major domestic players like ByteDance and Alibaba are expected to stabilize the domestic market base [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth driven by dual engines: data centers and new energy, with a projected net profit of 6-6.6 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.21%-67.43% [7] - The data center business is anticipated to grow steadily, with expected revenue of over 3 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20% [7] - The new energy business is recovering, with expected revenue of 2 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and storage business revenue expected to nearly double [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 5,440 million yuan - 2024: 4,159 million yuan - 2025: 5,281 million yuan - 2026: 7,994 million yuan - 2027: 10,812 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 23.61% for 2023, -23.54% for 2024, 26.99% for 2025, 51.36% for 2026, and 35.25% for 2027 [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as follows: - 2023: 845.48 million yuan - 2024: 394.20 million yuan - 2025: 643.82 million yuan - 2026: 1,120.35 million yuan - 2027: 1,528.53 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 28.79% for 2023, -53.38% for 2024, 63.32% for 2025, 74.01% for 2026, and 36.43% for 2027 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 1.45 yuan for 2023, 0.68 yuan for 2024, 1.11 yuan for 2025, 1.92 yuan for 2026, and 2.63 yuan for 2027 [1] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected as follows: - 2023: 38.41 - 2024: 82.38 - 2025: 50.44 - 2026: 28.99 - 2027: 21.25 [1] - The company is expected to have a P/E of 35x for 2026, corresponding to a target price of 67.2 yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hunan Youneng (301358) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant earnings turnaround, with Q4 profits exceeding market expectations due to price increases and strong demand [8] - The company forecasts a total revenue of 36.77 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 62.69% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach 1.28 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 115.60% [1] - The company is benefiting from a solid market position, with a projected output of over 110,000 tons for the year, a 50% increase year-on-year [8] - The company plans to raise 4.79 billion yuan for capacity expansion in lithium iron phosphate and manganese iron phosphate production, which has been approved by the regulatory authority [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 36.77 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 1.28 billion yuan [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.68 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 37.38 [1] - The company anticipates a significant increase in high-end product sales, with projections indicating that the share of high-end products will rise to 70% by 2026 [8] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve, with a forecasted gross margin of 10.19% in 2026 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to continue its investment in flash sales while maintaining rapid growth in AI cloud services [1] - Revenue for FY2026Q3 is projected to reach 292.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, primarily due to a slowdown in e-commerce revenue growth [7] - The report anticipates that Alibaba Cloud's revenue will grow by 35.0% year-on-year, reaching 42.85 billion yuan in the same quarter, driven by strong demand for AI computing power and services [7] - The company aims to become the absolute leader in the instant retail market through its flash sales initiative, with improvements in GMV and AOV expected [7] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are set at 101.53 billion, 141.56 billion, and 184.65 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 28.4, 20.4, and 15.6 times [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for FY2024A to FY2028E are as follows: 941.17 billion, 996.35 billion, 1,068.58 billion, 1,158.75 billion, and 1,269.02 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.34%, 5.86%, 7.25%, 8.44%, and 9.52% respectively [1] - The report forecasts a decline in attributable net profit for FY2026 to 82.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.49% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in FY2027 and FY2028 [1] - The latest diluted EPS for FY2026 is projected at 4.33 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 34.94 times [1]