Economic Indicators - As of January 4, 2026, the weekly ECI supply index is 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous week, while the demand index is 49.83%, also down 0.01 percentage points[9] - The monthly ECI supply index for December is 49.93%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from November, and the demand index is 49.85%, down 0.03 percentage points[10] - The ECI investment index is 49.85%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is 49.64%, down 0.02 percentage points[9] Consumer Behavior - During the New Year holiday from January 1-3, 2026, an estimated 590 million people traveled, averaging 198 million per day, which is lower than the May Day and National Day holidays[2] - The average daily box office revenue during the New Year holiday was 245 million yuan, lower than 306 million yuan in 2025 and 512 million yuan in 2024[2] Investment Trends - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 17.47% week-on-week, indicating a marginal recovery in the real estate market[33] - The supply of land in 100 major cities decreased by 9.06% week-on-week, totaling 10.28 million square meters[33] Export and Trade - The export growth rate for South Korea in December was 6.80%, down 1.30 percentage points from November, indicating a slight decline in export momentum[38] - The Shanghai export container freight index increased by 103.40 points to 1656.32 points, reflecting a recovery in export prices[43] Monetary Policy - The ELI index as of January 4, 2026, is -0.01%, up 0.38 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[15] - The central bank conducted a net monetary injection of 1,171 billion yuan this week, with a total reverse repurchase operation of 13,236 billion yuan[50]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 2026 年 01 月 04 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600525090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 23% 26% 2025/1/6 2025/5/5 2025/9/1 2025/12/29 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《公募基金降费第三阶段落地，引导 权益类基金发展，平滑对短债基金的 影响》 看好保险 2026 年"开门红"；公募费改第三 阶段落地 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026-01-03 《低利率时代的重逢——中国分红险 发展的前世今生》 2025-12-30 东吴证券研究所 1 / 16 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 3 个交易日（2025 年 12 月 29 日-2025 年 12 月 31 日）非银金融各子板块中仅多元金融行业跑赢沪深 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 元旦假期海外市场回顾 "意料之外，情理之中"的委内瑞拉事件 2026 年 01 月 04 日 ◼ 海外政治：美国发动特别军事行动逮捕委内瑞拉总统，短期内或利好原 油价格。当地时间 2026 年 1 月 3 日，美军对委内瑞拉首都卡拉卡斯及 周边多处地区实施了空袭。特朗普则在社交媒体上表示已经逮捕委内瑞 拉总统马杜罗及其妻子。随后在海湖庄园举行的新闻发布会上，特朗普 声称因马杜罗长期拒绝与美方合作，所以将其作为"逃犯"，实施本次 特别军事行动进行逮捕，未来将移交至纽约地区法院对其涉及的毒品恐 怖主义等一系列指控进行审判；特朗普同时表示未来将持续管理委内瑞 拉至政权平稳过渡，并引入美国大型石油公司对委内瑞拉石油资源进行 开发。从表面上看，本次特别"斩首"行动极大地超出市场对特朗普的 外交政策预期。一方面，这是自 1989 年美国入侵巴拿马后逮捕诺列加 以来，时隔 37 年再度通过军事手段直接抓捕他国最高领导人。另一方 面，由于美国宪法规定战争行动必须由国会授权，而特朗普本次"斩首" 并未提前通知国会，因此该行动未来可能被视为"对委内瑞拉宣战"， 从而面临"违宪"风险，招致民主党的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading platform semiconductor equipment provider, benefiting from downstream capital expenditure expansion and increasing domestic substitution rates [1] - The semiconductor equipment market in China is expected to continue growing, with significant opportunities for domestic manufacturers due to tightening overseas restrictions [1][13] - The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth, with total revenue projected to reach 60.41 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.5% from 2018 to 2024 [1][19] Summary by Sections 1. Advanced Logic & Storage Acceleration - The report highlights the acceleration of capital expenditures in domestic wafer fabs, with a focus on advanced logic and storage sectors [9] - Domestic wafer fabs are expected to increase their capital expenditures significantly, with SMIC's utilization rate reaching 95.8% by Q3 2025 [23][24] - The report anticipates that the domestic market for NAND and DRAM will see increased production capacity, with investments totaling 155-180 billion USD [26] 2. R&D Investment and Order Growth - The company is increasing its R&D investments and has seen a continuous rise in new orders, aiming for a revenue target of 100 billion yuan [9][19] - The company is expected to maintain a high level of R&D spending, with projected annual costs exceeding 1 billion yuan [19] - The growth in orders and revenue is supported by a robust pipeline of contracts and inventory levels [9][19] 3. Product Line Expansion - The company is expanding its product lines through both internal development and acquisitions, solidifying its position as a leader in the semiconductor equipment sector [9] - The report notes that the company has a strong market presence in etching and deposition equipment, with significant market shares in these segments [9] - The company is also diversifying into new categories such as ion implantation and electroplating equipment, enhancing its competitive edge [9] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 5.84 billion yuan in 2025 and 10.23 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 85.3 in 2023 to 32.5 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as growth continues [1]

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20260104 节后 A 股行情推演 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 港股大涨原因分析及节后 A 股行情推演 元旦港股大涨，主要原因有三：一是港股相对 A 股有补涨逻辑；二是人民 币升值催动港股走强；三是强劲科技产业趋势是行情上涨的引擎。 港股与 A 股的联动性历来较强，此次港股上涨亦强化了节后 A 股走强的 预期。春节前后，市场环境通常对多方更为有利，A 股总体机会大于风险， 看好节后科技行情。宏观层面，内外环境均呈现积极变化，外部弱美元催 化叠加内部政策靠前发力。微观层面，资金面同样可能迎来改善，人民币 汇率回升、港股率先大涨有望提振市场情绪，险资、公募等机构亦在新年 伊始进行资产布局。 配置方向上，建议以景气成长为主。成长风格在春季行情中历来表现突出， 叠加今年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，新质生产力相关板块有望成为资 金配置重心。但需注意，1 月进入业绩预告密集期，注重景气度与业绩支 撑。建议重点关注三大方向：1）AI 产业链；2）"十五五"规划提名细分； 3）周期涨价。 ◼ 元旦期间全球要闻 ➢ 假期全球市场综述 元旦 ...

证券研究报告·公司研究简报·风电设备 天顺风能（002531） 短期承压，后续有望迎来修复拐点 2026 年 01 月 04 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,727 | 4,860 | 4,957 | 7,658 | 8,917 | | 同比（%） | 14.67 | (37.10) | 1.99 | 54.49 | 16.44 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 795.23 | 204.44 | 175.51 | 757.79 | 977.35 | | 同比（%） | 26.53 | (74.29) | (14.15) | 331.77 | 28.97 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.44 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.42 | 0.54 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 15.50 | 60.30 | 70.23 | 16.27 | 12.61 | [Table_ ...

Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the North Exchange A-shares had a total of 288 stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.019 billion yuan[19] - The North Exchange 50 Index fell by 1.55% during the week of December 29 to December 31, closing at 1,440.43 points[19] - The average daily trading volume for North Exchange A-shares was 19.439 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.74% from the previous week[19] New Stock Listings - The new stock Hengtong Light (stock code: 920045.BJ) was listed on December 31, 2025, with a revenue of 1.625 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 91.38%[3][27] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Hengtong Light was 224 million yuan, up 123.75% year-on-year[3][27] Investment Insights - The North Exchange's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios as of December 31, 2025, were 45.85 for A-shares, 43.62 for the ChiNext, 13.08 for the Shanghai Main Board, 23.21 for the Shenzhen Main Board, and 75.12 for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board[4][28] - The report suggests focusing on technology sectors such as robotics, AI, commercial aerospace, and smart driving during the "spring market rally" period[4][28] Risks - Potential policy risks may affect investor enthusiasm and market heat[5][29] - Liquidity risks exist due to lower trading volumes compared to other boards like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ChiNext[5][29] - Earnings may not meet expectations due to external market changes, impacting stock prices negatively[5][29]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend from December 29 to December 31, 2025, with the top three broad indices being the Sci-Tech 100 (0.62%), Sci-Tech Composite (0.15%), and Shanghai Composite (0.13%) [13] - The top three sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry index were Oil & Petrochemicals (3.92%), National Defense & Military (3.05%), and Media (2.13%) [18] ETF Fund Statistics - The top three types of equity ETFs by fund size change were Theme Index ETF (5.685 billion CNY), Strategy Index ETF (1.945 billion CNY), and Style Index ETF (-161 million CNY) [9] - The largest equity ETFs by fund size change were Nonferrous Metals ETF (3.165 billion CNY), A500 ETF (1.935 billion CNY), and A500 ETF Huatai-PB (1.238 billion CNY) [10] January Market Outlook - The macro timing model for January 2026 scored 0, indicating a 76.92% probability of the Wande All A Index rising in the following month, with an average increase of 3.18% [19] - The average daily trading volume of the major index exceeded 20 billion CNY, indicating a gradual recovery in trading sentiment [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a proactive growth-oriented ETF allocation based on the optimistic outlook for January [67] - Key sectors to focus on include robotics, industrial nonferrous metals, and satellite communications, which showed significant net inflows [19] Risk Considerations - The model is based on historical data, which may not hold in the future, posing a risk of failure [69] - Potential macroeconomic underperformance and unexpected macro events are also highlighted as risks [69]

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·通信 通信行业点评报告 2026 年通信投资机会梳理：算力为核，卫星 为翼 2026 年 01 月 04 日 证券分析师 欧子兴 执业证书：S0600525110002 ouzx@dwzq.com.cn -9% 2% 13% 24% 35% 46% 57% 68% 79% 90% 101% 2025/1/3 2025/5/3 2025/8/31 2025/12/29 通信 沪深300 相关研究 《 AI 算力方案多点开花，继续看好 光互联方向》 2025-11-27 《AI 算力跟踪深度（四）：怎么看算力 的天花板和成长性？》 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025-10-16 东吴证券研究所 1 / 3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 行业走势 ◼ 光互联核心受益海外算力与国内算力需求共振。展望 2026 年，海外算 力链将保持景气度向上。北美 CSP 对资本开支保持高投入预期，数据中 心建设热情高涨，以英伟达 GPU 和谷歌 TPU 为代表的算力芯片都在快 速上量，更下一代产品也将在 2026 年开始商用，与之配套的光互联全 ...

Group 1 - The "Spring Market" is gradually unfolding, with both internal and external environments showing positive changes, including favorable macroeconomic conditions and supportive policies [2][3] - The report suggests that the focus for investment should be on growth sectors, particularly those related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to attract significant capital [3][4] - Key investment directions for January include AI industry chains, emerging industries, and cyclical price increases in industrial metals and chemicals [6][7] Group 2 - The report highlights specific companies as top investment picks, including North China Innovation (机械), Maiwei Co., Ltd. (机械), Wanhua Chemical (能源化工), Chipbond Technology (电子), Ping An Insurance (非银), Zijin Mining (煤炭有色钢铁), Giant Network (传媒互联网), AVIC High-Tech (军工), Sanhua Intelligent Control (电新), and Kaiter (北交所) [7][11] - North China Innovation is expected to benefit from increased domestic equipment adoption and the expansion of storage and AI chip production [14][20] - Maiwei Co., Ltd. is positioned to capitalize on the U.S. solar expansion due to a significant gap in battery production capacity [23][30] - Wanhua Chemical is projected to strengthen its market position in MDI and TDI, with expected price increases due to supply constraints [33][35] - Chipbond Technology is set to benefit from the growing demand for PCB and semiconductor equipment driven by AI [41][42] - Ping An Insurance is anticipated to maintain strong growth in new business value (NBV) and dividend yield, supported by its insurance operations [45][46] - Zijin Mining is expected to see price increases in gold and copper, with a clear growth path in production [49][50] - Giant Network's game "Supernatural Action Group" is expected to show significant potential for long-term growth and profitability [56][57] - AVIC High-Tech is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for aerospace composite materials as the C919 enters mass production [58][59] - Sanhua Intelligent Control is expected to see growth from its involvement in Tesla's supply chain and the increasing demand for cooling solutions in data centers and energy storage [65][66] - Kaiter is projected to benefit from the automotive electronics sector and its expansion into robotics and liquid cooling markets [72][78]