证券研究报告 智能汽车主线周报： 小鹏汽车发布VLA 2.0，看好智能化 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2026年1月12日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 目录 本周板块行情复盘 板块景气度跟踪 核心关注个股跟踪 投资建议与风险提示 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2026.1.5-2026.1.8 2 ◼ 本周智能汽车行情复盘：我们编撰的智能汽车指数-2.0%，智能汽车指数（除特斯拉）-6.9%。截至2025年1 月8日，智能汽车指数PS(TTM）为14.0x，该估值位于2023年初以来96%分位数；智能汽车指数（除特斯 拉）PS(TTM）为7.2x，该估值位于2023年初以来97%分位数。智能汽车指数标的池中黑芝麻智能、四维图 新、浙江世宝-H、千里科技、禾赛涨幅前五。 （ ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）英伟达黄仁勋在CES 2026上发布开源自动驾驶模型Alpamayo并加速布局Robotaxi； 2）美国拟于2026年1月13日举行听证会讨论新的汽车立法，将无需传统控制的车辆年部署上限从 2500 辆提 高 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [70]. Core Insights - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported at 18,043, 14,171, and 14,478 CNY/ton respectively, with TDI showing a week-on-week increase of 59 CNY/ton [2]. - The average prices for ethane, propane, and coal are 1,165, 4,172, and 520 CNY/ton respectively, with ethane decreasing by 85 CNY/ton and propane increasing by 45 CNY/ton [2]. - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,213, 1,724, 3,787, and 2,546 CNY/ton respectively, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 34 CNY/ton and urea increasing by 12 CNY/ton [2]. - The average prices for animal nutrition products such as VA and VE are 62.5 and 54.9 CNY/kg respectively, with no significant changes [2]. Summary by Sections Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 18,043, 14,171, and 14,478 CNY/ton respectively, with TDI showing a week-on-week increase of 59 CNY/ton [2][16][20]. Oil, Coal, and Olefins Sector - Ethane and propane average prices are 1,165 and 4,172 CNY/ton respectively, with ethane decreasing by 85 CNY/ton and propane increasing by 45 CNY/ton [2][24][31]. - The average price for polyethylene is 6,800 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 30 CNY/ton [2]. Coal Chemical Sector - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,213, 1,724, 3,787, and 2,546 CNY/ton respectively, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 34 CNY/ton and urea increasing by 12 CNY/ton [2][40][48][49]. Animal Nutrition Sector - The average prices for VA, VE, solid egg amino acid, and liquid egg amino acid are 62.5, 54.9, 17.6, and 14.2 CNY/kg respectively, with no significant changes [2][56][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, specifically recommending stocks such as Micro-Invasive Brain Science, Xiangyu Medical, and Meihua Medical [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on brain-computer interfaces (BCI) as a strategic high ground in global technology, supported by national policies and significant investments [5][19]. - It highlights the approval of innovative drugs and therapies, such as the human thyroid-stimulating hormone beta and the HER2-targeted therapies, which are expected to set new standards in treatment [2][3]. - The report ranks sub-industries in terms of investment potential, with innovative drugs at the top, followed by research services, CXO, traditional Chinese medicine, medical devices, and pharmacies [3][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The A-share pharmaceutical index has increased by 7.81% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 5.03% [11]. - The report notes a significant rise in the healthcare sector, with medical services and devices showing strong performance [11]. Policy Support for Brain-Computer Interfaces - The "14th Five-Year Plan" identifies brain-computer interfaces as a key future industry, with a clear policy support from the government [18]. - The National Health Insurance Administration has established pricing standards for BCI procedures, indicating a commitment to support this emerging field [19][20]. R&D Progress and Company Dynamics - The report lists several companies with promising drug pipelines, including those focusing on PD1 PLUS, ADC, and small nucleic acids, suggesting specific stocks to watch [14]. - It provides a detailed overview of recent approvals and clinical trials, indicating a robust pipeline for innovative therapies [2][3]. Market Performance - The report highlights the significant gains in the pharmaceutical sector, with specific stocks like Innovation Medical and Sanbo Brain Science showing remarkable increases [11]. - It also notes the performance of H-shares, with companies like Jinfang Pharmaceutical-B and Shengnuo Pharmaceutical-B leading the gains [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [53]. Core Insights - The automotive parts sector saw a weekly increase of 3.37%, ranking second among the SW automotive sector, with a year-to-date increase of 47.4% since the beginning of 2025 [2][19]. - The robotics sector experienced a weekly rise of 3.74%, with a year-to-date increase of 68.14% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the automotive parts sector by 0.37% [2][27]. - Key developments include the announcement of a 7.8 billion yuan contract for Xusheng Group with a North American new energy manufacturer, expected to start production by the end of 2026 [2][42]. - Notable stock performances this week include Xusheng Group (+18.05%), Xinquan Co. (+16.17%), and Hengshuai Co. (+13.24%) [2][42]. Summary by Sections Automotive Parts Sector Weekly Review - The automotive parts sector ranked second in the SW automotive index this week, with a performance of +3.37% [19]. - The sector's PE (TTM) is at 1.3 times that of the entire A-share market, and its PB (LF) is at 1.5 times, indicating a strong valuation relative to the market [25]. - The sector's PE has increased by 8.75 times and PB by 0.74 times since the beginning of 2025 [25]. Robotics Sector Weekly Review - The robotics index increased by 3.74% this week, with a year-to-date performance of +68.14% since the beginning of 2025 [27]. - The latest PE (TTM) for the robotics sector is at 1.39 times that of the entire A-share market, with a PB (LF) at 1.90 times [37]. - The sector's PE has risen by 5.53 times and PB by 0.64 times since the beginning of 2025 [37]. Key Stock Tracking - Core stocks in the automotive parts sector include Fuyao Glass, Top Group, and Junsheng Electronics, with recommendations based on EPS and PE dimensions [48]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on structural opportunities in the automotive parts sector and certainty in the robotics sector, particularly with upcoming product launches and market applications [2][48].

Market Overview - The equity market experienced an overall increase during the trading period from December 29 to January 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.95% to close at 4083.67 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 3.79% to 14022.55 points [6][9] - The convertible bond market also saw a significant rise, with an overall increase of 4.16%, closing at 505.77 points [6][16] - Daily average trading volume in the equity market increased by approximately 31.33% week-on-week, reaching 25595.78 billion yuan [8] Investment Strategy and Outlook - The report suggests maintaining a focus on controlling drawdowns as a primary objective, with a recommendation to adjust expectations for convertible bonds in the current market environment [1] - The strategy emphasizes a dual-sector model, recognizing a "hot technology sector" alongside a "cool traditional sector," indicating a structural growth engine where investment is prioritized over consumption [1] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors such as consumer electronics, key materials, resources, and power distribution equipment, particularly as the annual report season approaches [1][3] Convertible Bond Market Insights - The report identifies the top ten convertible bonds with the highest potential for price premium recovery, including Liuyuan Convertible Bond and Lihua Convertible Bond [1] - During the trading period, approximately 94.49% of convertible bonds saw an increase, with 78.48% of bonds experiencing gains exceeding 2% [17] - The average daily trading volume for convertible bonds increased significantly by 16.95%, reaching 947.39 billion yuan [17] Sector Performance - In the equity market, 28 out of 31 sectors saw gains, with notable increases in defense, media, computing, and non-ferrous metals, which rose by 13.63%, 13.10%, 8.49%, and 8.56% respectively [14] - The report indicates that the convertible bond market's sentiment is improving, with a significant increase in trading volume and a higher percentage of bonds outperforming their underlying stocks [38][40]

Economic Indicators - As of January 11, 2026, the ECI supply index is at 49.95%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.83%[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.84%, down 0.01 percentage points, and the consumption index is at 49.67%, up 0.03 percentage points[6] - The ECI export index is at 50.17%, down 0.02 percentage points, indicating a mixed performance in economic activity[6] Loan and Financing Data - In the first 11 months of 2025, new RMB loans totaled 15.36 trillion, a decrease of 1.74 trillion compared to the same period in 2024[14] - It is expected that December 2025 will see new loans of approximately 1 trillion, consistent with seasonal trends from the past three years[14] - The social financing scale is projected to increase by around 2 trillion in December 2025, down approximately 0.86 trillion year-on-year, with a slight decrease in growth rate to 8.3%[14] Consumption and Investment Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars reached 122,628 units in the last week of December 2025, an increase of 19,277 units year-on-year[24] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 25% week-on-week, but the supply of land increased by 29.62%[31] - The price of ordinary Portland cement was recorded at 281.30 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period[31] Export Performance - The export growth rate for South Korea in December was 13.40%, an increase of 5 percentage points from November, indicating a recovery in global demand[36] - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports in China decreased by 0.65% week-on-week, reflecting some challenges in export activity[36] Inflation and Price Trends - The average wholesale price of pork rose to 17.92 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.26 yuan/kg, while the price of 28 monitored vegetables fell slightly to 5.60 yuan/kg[42] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.55 per barrel, up by $0.18, indicating a slight recovery in global oil prices[42] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[55] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate sector is still under observation[55]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Accumulate" [1] Core Insights - The port thermal coal spot price increased by 17 CNY/ton week-on-week, closing at 699 CNY/ton. The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 12.17% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow rose by 4.15% [1][30] - The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased by 4.75% week-on-week, indicating a marginal decline in overall inventory levels, which, combined with the release of rigid demand, has driven coal prices upward. However, the report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a volatile trend due to high temperatures and competition from renewable energy sources [1][35] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.41% week-on-week, while the coal sector index increased by 5.70% [10] - The trading volume for the coal sector reached 742 million CNY, a significant increase of 222% week-on-week [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices showed a stable increase, with the price for 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong rising by 56 CNY/ton to 606 CNY/ton [17] - The port thermal coal price at Qinhuangdao increased by 17 CNY/ton, closing at 699 CNY/ton [17] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily inflow to the Bohai Rim ports was 154.18 million tons, up 12.17% week-on-week, while the outflow was 161.95 million tons, up 4.15% [30] - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports increased by 22% week-on-week, indicating heightened shipping activity [35] 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending thermal coal elastic stocks such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy due to their low valuations [2][40]

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market reached 2.95 trillion CNY, an increase of over 700 billion CNY compared to the previous week[9] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82% during the week, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 3.89%[12] Market Style Performance - The STAR Market 50 Index had the highest weekly increase of 9.80%, while the CSI 500 Index rose by 7.92%[12] - Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, with small-cap growth stocks showing a relative advantage over value stocks[14][17] Participant Performance - The market sentiment index increased by 8.45%, indicating strong performance from active funds[20] - The QFII heavy index rose by 5.06%, while the private equity heavy index increased by 6.21%[20] Sector Performance - The weekly performance of various sectors showed significant gains, with the top-performing sectors including technology and healthcare[28] - The overall A-share market saw a rise of 1.99% for the week, with 4,180 stocks increasing in value[23] Industry Trends and Outlook - Key focus areas for 2026 include technology self-reliance and security, with an emphasis on AI capabilities and resource security[42] - The report highlights the importance of domestic demand and the need to reduce reliance on external markets for economic growth[42] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties in industry fundamentals[45]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the public fund industry, driven by recent reforms and policy initiatives aimed at enhancing the quality of development [1]. Core Insights - The public fund industry is undergoing significant reforms, with multiple policies introduced since July 2023 to promote coordinated development, including fee reforms, the growth of equity funds, and optimization of fund operation models [3][6]. - The fee reform is structured in three phases, aiming to reduce costs by a total of 50 billion annually by the end of 2025, with specific caps on management, custody, and sales fees for various fund types [6][7]. - The promotion of index-based investment is a key focus, with initiatives to enhance the product offerings and improve the investment ecosystem for index funds [10][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Initiatives - Since July 2023, the regulatory body has launched several policies to facilitate the coordinated development of the public fund industry, including a phased approach to fee reforms and a push for equity fund growth [3][4]. - The introduction of a fast-track approval process for index funds and the encouragement of innovative index products are part of the strategy to enhance the market's attractiveness [10][12]. 2. Fee Reform - The fee reform consists of three phases, starting with management and custody fees capped at 1.2% and 0.2% respectively for new equity funds from July 2023 [6][7]. - The second phase, effective from July 2024, will lower trading commission rates and adjust the distribution of commissions among fund managers [7]. - The final phase will see reductions in subscription and sales service fees, with significant changes to redemption fees to encourage long-term holding [7][9]. 3. Index Investment Development - The report outlines a framework for promoting index-based investment, including the expansion of ETF offerings and the establishment of a robust index product ecosystem [10][11]. - The regulatory body aims to lower investment costs for index funds and enhance the quality of index compilation, thereby fostering a more competitive environment for passive investment strategies [11][12]. 4. Performance Benchmarking - New guidelines for performance benchmarking have been proposed to ensure that benchmarks reflect the investment style and objectives of funds, with a focus on maintaining stability in investment strategies [15][21]. - The performance of fund managers will be closely tied to their ability to meet or exceed these benchmarks, with a structured approach to performance-related compensation [15][26]. 5. Market Trends - The public fund market has seen substantial growth, with total assets increasing from 2.5 trillion in 2010 to an expected 32.3 trillion by the end of 2024, indicating a shift towards passive investment strategies as active equity products experience slower growth [28][29].

Economic Overview - The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.38%, better than the expected 4.5%, with a downward revision of the previous month's rate from 4.56% to 4.54%[14] - December's non-farm payrolls added 50,000 jobs, lower than the expected 70,000, with previous months revised down by 76,000, indicating a weak labor market[14] - The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. improved from 0.115 on December 31 to 0.124 on January 9, indicating a slight positive surprise in economic data[7] Inflation and CPI Expectations - Analysts predict December's U.S. CPI to show a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%[5] - The Federal Reserve's model forecasts a month-on-month CPI increase of 0.2% and a core CPI increase of 0.22%[22] - Inflation swaps indicate a significant upside risk for December's CPI, with expectations of a month-on-month increase of 0.45%[20] Market Sentiment and Asset Performance - U.S. equities experienced volatility but ended the week positively, driven by improved expectations for AI technology companies and a rebound in risk sentiment following the unemployment rate drop[1] - Commodities initially dipped but continued to rise, with silver prices increasing by 9.67% during the week[4] - The Nasdaq index outperformed the S&P 500, reflecting stronger sentiment in tech stocks[4] Political and Policy Uncertainty - The market is awaiting the U.S. Supreme Court's decision on the legality of Trump's IEEPA tariffs, with expectations that the ruling will not cause significant market disruption[25] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariff case has contributed to increased market volatility, particularly affecting equity performance[4] Future Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a potential economic rebound in Q1 2026, driven by the end of government shutdowns and a fiscal impulse contributing approximately 2.8% to GDP growth[5] - The combination of monetary easing (75 basis points cut since Q3 2025) and seasonal economic strength in Q1 is expected to favor risk assets such as equities and commodities[6]