证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20260105 脑机接口推进临床，具身智能向个人化发展 2026 年 01 月 05 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 本周 AI 要闻 （信息来源：新浪财经、上海证券报等） 周度观点 ◼ AI 产业链条延续变化趋势，脑机接口与小型机器人等产品落地 （1）本周全球 AI 产业延续全链条推进态势，整体来看，行业正通过资本 协同、技术创新与场景落地的深度联动，推动 AI 价值从技术探索向实际 应用加速转化。 相关研究 《节后 A 股行情推演》 （2）算力与基础设施方面，本周企业继续通过资本整合补强 AI 产业全栈 能力。英伟达通过 50 亿美元注资英特尔以及拟用 20-30 亿美元收购大模 型公司 AI21Labs 的核心推理技术与顶尖人才分别补强其生产线与专利库 和软件板块，推进"硬件+软件+应用"全栈布局，此类收购可能抬升全球 AI 人才估值锚点，迫使竞争对手提高留人成本。软银则以 40 亿美元收购 DigitalBridge 并累计 410 亿美元投资 OpenAI，不仅巩固了 AI 行业巨头 OpenAI 在全球 AI 竞赛中的优势、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electric power equipment industry [1] Core Views - The lithium battery prices are rapidly linked, and there is significant long-term potential in space photovoltaic technology [1] - The energy storage sector is expected to see substantial growth, with a projected increase of over 60% in 2026 due to rising demand and supply constraints [3][7] - The electric vehicle market is anticipated to grow by 15% in 2026, supported by continued subsidies and a strong export contribution [26] Industry Trends - The electric power equipment sector experienced a decline of 2.18%, underperforming the market, with specific segments like wind power and new energy vehicles showing slight increases [3] - The report highlights the release of independent energy storage capacity compensation in Hubei Province at 165 RMB/kW·year, indicating government support for energy storage development [3] - The report notes that the global energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with the U.S. projected to see a 60% increase in energy storage installations in 2025 [7] Market Prices and Changes - Lithium carbonate prices are reported at 112,500 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.9% [3] - The average price of polysilicon is reported at 53.00 RMB/kg, with no change, while N-type silicon wafers have seen a price increase of 20% [3] - The report indicates that the average bidding price for onshore wind power is 1,800 RMB/kW, reflecting a competitive market environment [3] Company Performance - Companies like Ningde Times and BYD are highlighted for their strong performance, with Ningde Times expected to see a net profit of 11-16 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 127%-230% [3] - Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are noted for their strategic partnerships and production capacity expansions, positioning them well in the lithium supply chain [3] - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential for companies involved in energy storage and lithium battery production, recommending investments in leading firms such as Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy [3][6]

Macro Strategy - The report suggests that despite expectations of a slowdown in marginal fiscal funding for 2026, fiscal spending may still exceed expectations due to two main factors: a rebound in prices leading to increased fiscal revenue and a significant amount of fiscal "surplus" carried over from 2025 [1][10] - Specifically, if the PPI year-on-year growth rate rebounds by 1.8 percentage points (from -2.4% to -0.6%), it could generate approximately 260 billion yuan in additional tax revenue, equivalent to an increase in the deficit ratio by 0.2 percentage points (from 4.0% to 4.2%) [1][10] - Additionally, the fiscal surplus from 2025 is expected to exceed 500 billion yuan, which, combined with the tax revenue increase, could enhance the growth rate of general public budget expenditure by about 2.6 percentage points, allowing for unexpected spending expansion within the budget framework [1][10] Fixed Income - The report indicates that the overall focus remains on demand rather than supply, recommending attention to sectors with clear growth expectations on the demand side [3][18] - It highlights that the issuance of green bonds in the primary market totaled approximately 22.76 billion yuan, an increase of 1.65 billion yuan from the previous week, while the secondary market transaction volume for green bonds decreased by 15.6 billion yuan [4][20] - The issuance of secondary capital bonds reached 53.15 billion yuan, with a total transaction volume of approximately 272.9 billion yuan in the secondary market, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [4][21] Industry Insights - The report discusses Guizhou Moutai's strategy for 2026, focusing on accelerating marketing transformation and building diverse channels. The company plans to stabilize the overall domestic supply of Moutai liquor while clarifying product positioning [8] - Moutai aims to enhance the market share and opening rate of its 500ml classic series, while also strengthening premium and zodiac products, with a focus on creating a flagship product priced above 2000 yuan [8] - The company is committed to maintaining a "2+N" product system for Moutai sauce-flavored liquor, ensuring that the Moutai 1935 product does not increase in volume to enhance channel resilience and address profitability issues for distributors [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Guilin Tourism (000978) for the first time [1]. Core Insights - Guilin Tourism is positioned as a diversified tourism group based in Guilin, focusing on integrating cultural and tourism resources to enhance its market presence [8][13]. - The tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery, supported by favorable policies and increasing consumer demand for travel [45][53]. - The company is actively optimizing its asset structure and launching new projects to drive growth, leveraging its core tourism resources to build competitive advantages [54][64]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guilin Tourism was established in April 1998 and listed in May 2000, focusing on scenic tourism, cruise operations, and hotel services [13]. - In 2024, the company received 5.68 million visitors, with a revenue of 432 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.58% [21][23]. Tourism Market Recovery - The domestic tourism market is recovering robustly, with a 15% increase in domestic travel in 2024 compared to the previous year [45][48]. - During the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, domestic travel reached 888 million trips, a 16% increase from 2024 [48] . Core Tourism Resources and Development Initiatives - Guilin Tourism has established a competitive edge through its core tourism resources, including key attractions like the Two Rivers and Four Lakes and Silver Cave [54][58]. - The company is enhancing its service offerings and operational efficiency through asset optimization and innovative project launches, such as the high-end hotel "Lijiang·Waterfall Hotel" [64]. Financial Analysis - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 0.3 billion, 0.4 billion, and 0.5 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 104, 89, and 67 [1][19]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 432 million yuan, with a slight recovery expected in subsequent years [1][21]. Investment Recommendations - Given the company's strong market position and growth potential, the report recommends an "Accumulate" rating, anticipating valuation premiums due to its status as a leading tourism player in Guangxi [1][64].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [58]. Core Insights - The automotive parts sector saw a weekly increase of 2.91%, ranking first among the SW automotive sector, with a year-to-date increase of 42.58% [2][15]. - The robotics sector experienced a weekly rise of 3.73%, with a year-to-date increase of 62.08%, outperforming the automotive parts sector by 0.83% [2][29]. - Key companies in the automotive parts sector are making strategic moves, such as Silver Wheel's investment of 380 million yuan in capacity expansion and Huada Technology's announcement of a cash dividend plan [2][51]. Summary by Sections Automotive Parts Sector Weekly Review - The automotive parts sector ranked first in the SW automotive index this week, with a year-to-date performance of +42.58% [15][19]. - The sector's PE (TTM) is at a historical 79.44% percentile, and PB (LF) is at 75.50% [27]. - The top-performing stocks this week include Xinquan Co. (+14.05%), Beite Technology (+11.64%), and Top Group (+8.26%) [2][46]. Robotics Sector Weekly Review - The robotics index increased by 3.73% this week, with a year-to-date performance of +62.08% [29]. - The sector's PE (TTM) is at a historical 45.12% percentile, and PB (LF) is at 54.43% [39]. - Notable developments include the planned A-share listing of Yuejiang Technology and the H-share listing of Zhejiang Rongtai [40]. Key Company Tracking - Key companies in the automotive parts sector include Fuyao Glass, Top Group, and Silver Wheel, with significant recent announcements regarding capacity expansion and dividend plans [51][46]. - The top five stocks by weekly performance are Xinquan Co., Beite Technology, Top Group, Daimai Co., and New Coordinates [2][46]. Investment Recommendations - For the automotive parts sector, focus on companies with structural opportunities, particularly those enhancing ASP through high-value segments and expanding capacity in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [2][53]. - In the robotics sector, look for certainty in opportunities, especially with the upcoming release of Optimus V3 and the application of domestic manufacturers [2][53].

证券研究报告 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.12.29-2026.1.2 2 ◼ 本周智能汽车行情复盘：我们编撰的智能汽车指数-6.2%，智能汽车指数（除特斯拉）+0.2%。截至2025年 12月31日，智能汽车指数PS(TTM）为14.1x，该估值位于2023年初以来96%分位数；智能汽车指数（除特 斯拉）PS(TTM）为6.4x，该估值位于2023年初以来90%分位数。智能汽车指数标的池中佑驾创新、文远知 行、小马智行、禾赛、小鹏汽车涨幅前五。 （ ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）小马智行Robotaxi规模突破1159辆，超额完成2025年千辆Robotaxi目标；2）特斯 拉 FSD v14.2 完成2天20小时零接管横穿美国 ◼ 当前时点智能汽车板块投资建议：继续坚定看好2026年L4 RoboX主线！ ➢ B端软件标的>C端硬件标的。H股优选【小鹏汽车+地平线机器人+小马智行/文远知行+曹操/黑芝麻智能】； A股优选【千里科技+德赛西威+经纬恒润】 ➢ 下游应用维度相关标的：#Robotaxi视角：1）一体化模式：特斯拉/小鹏汽车；2）技术提供商+运营分成模 式：地平线/百度/小马智行/文远 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market at the end of 2025 was volatile and weak, mainly affected by year - end institutional behavior changes and strong December PMI data. The official draft of the new regulations on public fund sales is expected to have a positive impact on the bond market, and the bond market at the beginning of 2026 is likely to recover [13][16]. - In 2026 Q1, the bond market has both risks and opportunities. At the beginning of 2026, the possibility of a significant tightening of funds similar to that in early 2025 is small. Higher interest rates are beneficial for allocation - type institutions, while trading - type institutions can focus on capital interest rates and potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [17]. - The "grand narrative" pricing and cyclical factors of gold are positive in 2026, and gold is expected to play an important role in different asset portfolios. The long - term value of the RMB is underestimated, but in the medium - term, the supporting role of macro - policies during the transformation from exogenous to endogenous growth needs to be considered [20]. - The latest PMI and EIA data in the US show increased inflationary pressure and slowed economic expansion momentum. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has become more cautious. There are significant policy differences within the Fed, and the monetary policy path requires more data for confirmation [21]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Viewpoints - **Impact of PMI and New Fund Sales Regulations on the Bond Market**: From December 26 to 31, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose 1.45bp from 1.8355% to 1.85%. On December 31, the release of PMI data initially suppressed the bond market sentiment, and the official draft of the new regulations on public fund sales had limited impact on the bond market that day [11][12]. - **Analysis of US Economic Data and Bond Yields**: The US December PMI initial values were all lower than expected, EIA inventory data changed, and the housing and labor markets showed mixed signals. The Fed's policy differences were significant, and the short - term interest - rate cut faced resistance [21][22][32]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries - **Liquidity Tracking**: From December 29 to 31, 2025, the net investment in the open market was 117.1 billion yuan. The money market interest rates and bond yields showed certain changes [36][41]. - **Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking**: Steel prices generally rose, LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices increased across the board. Overseas, the US stock and bond markets, and commodity prices also had corresponding fluctuations [59]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, 9 local bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 26 billion yuan, including 11.5 billion yuan in refinancing bonds and 14.5 billion yuan in new special bonds. The net financing amount was 17.449 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive projects [84]. - **Secondary Market Overview**: The local bond stock was 54.61 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 133.992 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.25%. The top three provinces in terms of trading activity were Guangdong, Sichuan, and Zhejiang, and the top three active terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [97]. - **This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan**: The issuance plans for Shandong and Zhejiang provinces from January 5 to 9, 2026, were provided [103]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: A total of 81 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 74.42 billion yuan, a total repayment of 136.119 billion yuan, and a net financing of - 61.7 billion yuan. The net financing of urban investment bonds was - 8.818 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was - 52.882 billion yuan [104][105]. - **Issuance Interest Rates**: The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds showed different degrees of change [118]. - **Secondary Market Transaction Overview**: The total trading volume of credit bonds was 242.219 billion yuan, with short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes having relatively large trading volumes [119]. - **Yield to Maturity**: The yields of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [121][123][125]. - **Credit Spreads**: The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different degrees of change, with the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally widening [128][131][134]. - **Grade Spreads**: The grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds generally widened, while those of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [135][141][142]. - **Trading Activity**: The industrial sector had the largest trading volume of bonds, reaching 152.732 billion yuan. The top five most actively traded bonds in each category were listed [147]. - **Subject Rating Changes**: The subject ratings of several companies were upgraded, including Yichun Development Investment Group Co., Ltd., and Suining Tianyi Investment Group Co., Ltd. [149].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, highlighting strong growth potential in semiconductor equipment and humanoid robots [1][20]. Core Insights - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see a significant increase in capital expenditure and domestic equipment localization, with new order growth potentially exceeding 30% and reaching over 50% [2][18]. - The humanoid robot industry is approaching mass production, with key events such as the release of Tesla's V3 robot expected to catalyze order growth and market expansion [3][32]. - The engineering machinery sector is anticipated to experience a seasonal surge in Q1, driven by policy support and increased project initiation, with a projected annual growth rate of over 30% for excavators [3][33]. - The demand for optical modules is expected to rise due to increased shipments of AI servers, necessitating automation in production processes [4][35]. - The gas turbine market is poised for growth as AI data centers expand, with domestic manufacturers likely to benefit from increased demand for reliable power solutions [8][31]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Equipment - Longxin's IPO plans indicate a total investment of 34.5 billion yuan, primarily for technology upgrades in memory chip production, signaling a robust growth trajectory for the sector [2]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach 495 billion yuan in 2024, with a localization rate expected to rise to 22% by 2025 [18][19]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is set for significant changes with the upcoming release of Tesla's V3 robot, which is expected to drive orders and market standardization [3][32]. - Key companies to watch include Hengli Hydraulic and Top Group, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in this sector [3]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is entering a recovery phase, with Q1 typically seeing increased activity due to favorable weather and policy support [3][33]. - Major players such as Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG are expected to lead this recovery, with projected sales growth driven by domestic and international demand [33]. Optical Modules - The demand for optical modules is expected to increase significantly due to the rising shipments of AI servers, with automation becoming essential in production processes [4][35]. - Companies like Robotech and Aotewi are highlighted as key players in this space [4]. Gas Turbines - The expansion of AI data centers is driving demand for gas turbines, with domestic manufacturers like Jereh and Yingliu expected to capture significant market share [8][31]. - The gas turbine market is characterized by a shift towards domestic production, with companies forming partnerships with international leaders to enhance capabilities [8].

Economic Indicators - As of January 4, 2026, the weekly ECI supply index is 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous week, while the demand index is 49.83%, also down 0.01 percentage points[9] - The monthly ECI supply index for December is 49.93%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from November, and the demand index is 49.85%, down 0.03 percentage points[10] - The ECI investment index is 49.85%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is 49.64%, down 0.02 percentage points[9] Consumer Behavior - During the New Year holiday from January 1-3, 2026, an estimated 590 million people traveled, averaging 198 million per day, which is lower than the May Day and National Day holidays[2] - The average daily box office revenue during the New Year holiday was 245 million yuan, lower than 306 million yuan in 2025 and 512 million yuan in 2024[2] Investment Trends - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 17.47% week-on-week, indicating a marginal recovery in the real estate market[33] - The supply of land in 100 major cities decreased by 9.06% week-on-week, totaling 10.28 million square meters[33] Export and Trade - The export growth rate for South Korea in December was 6.80%, down 1.30 percentage points from November, indicating a slight decline in export momentum[38] - The Shanghai export container freight index increased by 103.40 points to 1656.32 points, reflecting a recovery in export prices[43] Monetary Policy - The ELI index as of January 4, 2026, is -0.01%, up 0.38 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[15] - The central bank conducted a net monetary injection of 1,171 billion yuan this week, with a total reverse repurchase operation of 13,236 billion yuan[50]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 2026 年 01 月 04 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600525090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 23% 26% 2025/1/6 2025/5/5 2025/9/1 2025/12/29 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《公募基金降费第三阶段落地，引导 权益类基金发展，平滑对短债基金的 影响》 看好保险 2026 年"开门红"；公募费改第三 阶段落地 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026-01-03 《低利率时代的重逢——中国分红险 发展的前世今生》 2025-12-30 东吴证券研究所 1 / 16 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 3 个交易日（2025 年 12 月 29 日-2025 年 12 月 31 日）非银金融各子板块中仅多元金融行业跑赢沪深 ...