2025 年 10 月 28 日 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·光伏设备 钧达股份（002865） 2025 年三季报点评：海外保持高占比，产能 多元化布局 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 18,657 | 9,952 | 9,318 | 14,627 | 19,215 | | 同比（%） | 60.90 | (46.66) | (6.37) | 56.97 | 31.37 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 815.64 | (591.11) | (515.22) | 651.69 | 1,275.75 | | 同比（%） | 13.77 | (172.47) | 12.84 | 226.49 | 95.76 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.79 | (2.02) | (1.76) | 2.23 | 4.36 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 14.44 | (19.92) | (2 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·其他电子Ⅱ 中熔电气（301031） ◼ 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，市场竞争加剧风险。 2025 年 10 月 28 日 证券分析师 曾朵红 2025 年三季报点评：25Q3 业绩略超预期，电 动车贡献主要增量 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,060 | 1,421 | 2,111 | 2,820 | 3,631 | | 同比（%） | 40.41 | 34.11 | 48.53 | 33.63 | 28.75 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 116.98 | 186.94 | 358.19 | 502.35 | 664.74 | | 同比（%） | (23.94) | 59.80 | 91.61 | 40.25 | 32.33 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.19 | 1.90 | 3.64 | 5.11 | 6.76 | | P/E（现价&最新摊 ...

证券研究报告·北交所公司点评报告·光学光电子 戈碧迦（920438） 2025 年三季报点评：业绩反转基本确立，玻 璃载板获订单超亿元 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 808.34 | 566.20 | 606.38 | 814.29 | 1,183.19 | | 同比（%） | 88.26 | (29.95) | 7.10 | 34.29 | 45.30 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 104.21 | 70.25 | 54.07 | 96.36 | 185.30 | | 同比（%） | 127.37 | (32.59) | (23.03) | 78.22 | 92.30 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.72 | 0.49 | 0.37 | 0.67 | 1.28 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 56.10 | 83.21 | 108.12 | 60.67 | 31.55 | ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电网设备 金盘科技（688676） 2025 年三季报点评：业绩符合市场预期，加 码布局 SST 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,668 | 6,901 | 8,838 | 10,843 | 12,929 | | 同比（%） | 40.50 | 3.50 | 28.07 | 22.69 | 19.24 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 504.66 | 574.42 | 783.79 | 1,037.58 | 1,318.38 | | 同比（%） | 78.15 | 13.82 | 36.45 | 32.38 | 27.06 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.10 | 1.25 | 1.70 | 2.26 | 2.87 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 61.50 | 54.03 | 39.60 | 29.91 | 23.54 | [Table_Tag ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall credit expansion of the entire industry is moderate, showing no significant momentum compared to the past. The non - current liabilities, financing inflows, and investment expenditures all indicate that the economy is in a slow - repair process, and the probability of a rapid turnaround in the economic fundamentals in the short term is low [1]. - There is still significant structural differentiation among industries in credit expansion. Different industries show different trends in non - current liabilities, financing inflows, and investment expenditures, presenting a "structural bias + uneven rhythm" mild recovery situation [2]. - Industries currently in the credit expansion stage, such as light manufacturing, electronics, basic chemicals, and public utilities, are recommended for credit bond allocation. Industries in credit contraction, like real estate, food and beverage, beauty care, and household appliances, suggest focusing on credit bonds of enterprises with controllable refinancing pressure and asset impairment risks [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The overall credit expansion of the entire industry is moderate, showing no significant momentum compared to the past 1.1 Non - current liabilities: Scale expansion continues, but growth rate remains low - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the total non - current liabilities of listed companies in the entire industry reached 20.28 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 3.62% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 3.52%. The growth rate is at a low or medium - low level compared to historical data, indicating that the willingness of Chinese enterprises to expand credit through long - term bank loans and bond issuance is not significantly increasing [9][10]. 1.2 Financing inflows: The rhythm is stable, and the support from funding sources remains - In the first half of 2025, the financing inflows of listed companies in the entire industry reached 9.95 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.89% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 12.51%. The growth rate is similar to recent years but slower than before 2023, suggesting that the ability and willingness of enterprises to obtain funds through medium - and long - term bank credit and bonds have not significantly increased, and the credit expansion is still moderate [12][15]. 1.3 Investment expenditures: Year - on - year growth is continuously negative, and credit implementation is somewhat weak - In the first half of 2025, the investment expenditures of listed companies in the entire industry were 2.13 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.71% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 21.83%. The year - on - year data has been in a downward trend since 2024, indicating that enterprises' ability and willingness to carry out production investment activities by increasing leverage are still weak, and the signal of credit expansion is not obvious [18][19]. 2. Structural differentiation among industries remains the main theme of credit expansion 2.1 Non - current liabilities - In the first half of 2025, industries such as comprehensive, public utilities, building decoration, light manufacturing, and basic chemicals had high year - on - year growth rates of non - current liabilities, while industries like household appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and computer had significant contractions. The differentiation is affected by industry cycle attributes and factors such as consumer demand and policies [25][26]. 2.2 Financing inflows - In the first half of 2025, industries such as household appliances, coal, social services, electronics, light manufacturing, public utilities, non - ferrous metals, and environmental protection had high year - on - year growth rates of financing inflows, while industries like communication, real estate, food and beverage, and social services had negative growth rates. Credit expansion is shifting from traditional industries to industries related to high - end technology manufacturing, consumption upgrading, and export [30][31]. 2.3 Investment expenditures - In the first half of 2025, industries such as coal, automobiles, comprehensive, and electronics showed certain resilience in investment expenditures, while industries like real estate, building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and public utilities had weak performance. Many industries have room for improvement in investment implementation, and some industries' investment funds may come from internal sources [33][34]. 2.4 Summary - Credit expansion in recent years has not returned to the pre - pandemic level, showing a structural and moderate recovery. Industries in credit expansion, such as light manufacturing, electronics, basic chemicals, and public utilities, are recommended for credit bond allocation, while industries in credit contraction, like real estate, food and beverage, beauty care, and household appliances, suggest focusing on enterprises with controllable risks [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750.SH) [1] Core Insights - The insurance sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability, driven by strong performance in Q3 2025, with major companies like China Life, New China Life, and China Property & Casualty reporting net profit growth rates of 106%, 101%, and 122% respectively [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of the PEV (Price of Embedded Value) valuation system for insurance companies, which reflects long-term profitability potential more accurately than traditional PE or PB metrics [20][22] - The report highlights the low valuation levels of the insurance sector, with average PEV ratios for A/H shares at 0.72x and 0.51x, indicating a significant margin of safety and potential for value appreciation [34][37] - The Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Index focuses heavily on the insurance sector, providing a unique investment opportunity with a high concentration of insurance assets [41][47] Summary by Sections 1. Q3 Performance and Investment Value of Insurance Stocks - The report notes that listed insurance companies achieved high net profit growth in Q3 2025, exceeding expectations despite a high base from the previous year [11][12] - The increase in investment income from equity investments is identified as a key driver of this growth, with insurance funds significantly increasing their equity allocations [13][17] - The high proportion of FVTPL (Fair Value Through Profit or Loss) assets among insurance companies enhances profit elasticity, allowing for direct reflection of market gains in profit figures [17][19] 2. Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750.SH) Overview - The ETF is noted for its unique focus on insurance, with a significant portion of its holdings in major insurance companies, making it a rare investment vehicle in the market [41][47] - The ETF has shown strong liquidity and growth, with an average daily trading volume of 1.818 billion yuan and a fund size of 21.214 billion yuan as of October 24, 2025 [5][41] - The ETF's performance is highlighted, with a cumulative return of 66.68% and an annualized return of 36.83%, positioning it favorably compared to other financial sector ETFs [5][41]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·军工电子Ⅱ 国睿科技（600562） 2025 年三季报点评：雷达主业稳健增长、费 用管控优化 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,282 | 3,400 | 3,985 | 4,485 | 5,159 | | 同比 | 1.77 | 3.61 | 17.21 | 12.53 | 15.04 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 599.21 | 629.76 | 751.91 | 854.60 | 969.76 | | 同比 | 9.10 | 5.10 | 19.40 | 13.66 | 13.47 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.48 | 0.51 | 0.61 | 0.69 | 0.78 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 60.68 | 57.74 | 48.36 | 42.55 | 37.50 | [Table_Tag] [事件： Table_Sum ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company [8] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 844 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 156 million yuan, up 42% year-on-year [8] - In Q3 alone, the company reported a revenue of 343 million yuan, a 35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 65 million yuan, which is a 27% increase year-on-year [8] - The new projects, including Mangshan and Danxia Mountain, contributed to the profit growth despite some weather-related impacts on visitor numbers during the peak summer season [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 722.26 million yuan, with a projected growth of 55.81% year-on-year. For 2024A, the revenue is expected to be 864.12 million yuan, a 19.64% increase [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is forecasted at 151.30 million yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 571.66%. The forecast for 2024A is a slight decrease to 146.55 million yuan, a 3.14% decline [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A is projected at 0.14 yuan, with an expected increase to 0.21 yuan in 2025E [8] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 7.16 yuan, with a market capitalization of 7,550.57 million yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 49.91 for the current price and latest diluted earnings [5] Financial Ratios - The company’s gross profit margin for Q3 was 52.47%, showing a slight increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 18.82%, down 1.15 percentage points year-on-year [8]

[Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 营收稳健增长，研发投入增加使利润短期承压 2025 年前三季度公司实现营业收入 3.54 亿元，同比+20.96%，主 要系公司稳步推进相关设备的生产、交付及验收工作；实现归母净利润 0.43 亿元，同比-25.40%；实现扣非归母净利润 0.25 亿元，同比-25.52%， 主要系公司加大研发投入，且报告期内计提的坏账准备增加。 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·通用设备 华辰装备（300809） 2025 年三季报点评：营收稳健增长，利润端 受研发加码短期承压 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 479.16 | 445.99 | 520.82 | 696.83 | 984.08 | | 同比（%） | 42.48 | (6.92) | 16.78 | 33.80 | 41.22 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 117.75 | 6 ...

买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 753.69 | 383.94 | 1,037.75 | 1,188.89 | 1,365.33 | | 同比 | 4.04 | (49.06) | 170.29 | 14.56 | 14.84 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (116.36) | 8.21 | 98.93 | 124.12 | 133.61 | | 同比 | 85.25 | 107.05 | 1,105.68 | 25.46 | 7.64 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (0.16) | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | (126.19) | 1,789.46 | 148.42 | 118.30 | 109.90 | [Table_Tag] [事件： Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季报。公司 2025 年前三 ...