证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 阶段性关注内需链条 2025 年 12 月 08 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 2024/12/9 2025/4/8 2025/8/6 2025/12/4 建筑材料 沪深300 ◼ 大宗建材方面： 相关研究 《建筑业 PMI 回升，基建或成为短期 稳经济抓手》 2025-11-30 《四季度高基数下寻找 alpha》 2025-11-24 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2025.11.29–2025.12.5，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅 1.55%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 1.28%、0.72%，超 额收益分别为 0.27%、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing price fluctuations in the gas market, with a notable increase in US gas prices due to sustained cold weather and inventory withdrawals, while European gas prices are declining [4][9] - It emphasizes the supply-demand dynamics, indicating a decrease in US gas storage and a drop in European gas supply, alongside a slight increase in domestic gas consumption in China [15][19] - The report discusses the progress of price adjustments in the gas sector, with a significant number of cities implementing residential price adjustments, leading to improved profitability for city gas companies [31] Price Tracking - As of December 5, 2025, US HH gas prices increased by 13.2% week-on-week, while European TTF prices decreased by 6.2% [9][10] - The report notes that the average gas consumption in Europe for the first eight months of 2025 was 288.4 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [15] - Domestic gas prices in China saw a week-on-week decrease of 1.4%, with a total apparent consumption of 354.1 billion cubic meters from January to October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [19][23] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report forecasts continued cold weather leading to a 13.2% increase in US gas prices, with storage levels dropping to 39,230 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 120 billion cubic feet week-on-week [14] - European gas supply decreased by 9.9% week-on-week, with a notable drop in supply from inventory [15] - China's gas production increased by 6.5% year-on-year to 217.1 billion cubic meters, while imports decreased by 6.3% [23][24] Price Adjustment Progress - The report indicates that 67% of cities have implemented residential price adjustments, with an average increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [31] - The report suggests that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment in city gas companies, indicating ongoing efforts to align pricing mechanisms [31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, highlighting their attractive dividend yields [46][47] - It suggests focusing on companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xinao Holdings [46][47] - The report also emphasizes the importance of energy independence and suggests monitoring companies with gas production capabilities [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - Credo's revenue exceeded expectations, with a significant year-on-year increase of 272% to reach $268 million in FY26Q2, driven by the explosive demand for interconnect solutions in AI clusters [2] - Marvell's acquisition of Celestial AI for at least $3.25 billion marks a pivotal moment for CPO technology, transitioning from proof of concept to large-scale commercialization [4] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards CPO technology as major players like TSMC, NVIDIA, and AMD accelerate their investments and development efforts [8] Summary by Sections Credo's Performance - Credo's FY26Q2 revenue reached $268 million, a 272% increase year-on-year and a 20% increase quarter-on-quarter, significantly surpassing guidance [2] - The AEC segment is the fastest-growing business, with contributions from major cloud providers increasing [2] - The ZeroFlap series AEC is becoming the standard for interconnects within 7 meters, transitioning from 100G to 200G [2][3] Marvell's Acquisition - Marvell's acquisition of Celestial AI is a strategic move to enhance its position in the optical interconnect market, with the potential for 16Tbps bandwidth and improved energy efficiency [4] - This acquisition is expected to play a crucial role in breaking through bandwidth and memory barriers in data centers [4] Industry Trends - The CPO technology is being recognized as the next-generation optical foundation for AI data centers, with significant investments from leading semiconductor companies [8] - The transition from "pluggable" to "co-packaged" optical interconnects is seen as a definitive path to overcoming physical limits of Moore's Law [8]

固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 2026 年可转债年度策略： 内生时代，博弈稀缺 证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-12-08 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20251205：六部委"供需适配政策"精准发力"新消费" 新消费有望逐步接棒传统消费，成为拉动我国商品消费的主要动力 目前四季度到 26 年一季度仍是抢筹建仓的重要窗口，26 年主线仍将围绕 双碳+AI 双驱动的"源网荷储"全线链条展开，网荷衔接段、泛储题材以 及荷载端侧软硬件方向优于源网传统概念，这其中"扩散"会成为变奏 曲，关注三个维度带来的边际弹性 1）大盘向中小盘扩散；2）核心题材 向边缘题材扩散；3）第一梯队向第二梯队扩散；其中转债本身仍以中小 盘边缘题材第二梯队标的为主的特征将充分受益于这一边际变化；同时 待发行转债主线含量明显上升，一级半、次新策略带来的超额收益将倒逼 转债投资人拥抱科技，转债供需格局进一步优化，主线标的可获得性进一 步改善，内生增长下再融资资产搁浅概率收敛，或摆脱转债发行即内卷的 外生增长下的怪圈，26 年胜负手或取决于 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·电力设备 电力设备行业跟踪周报 储能锂电淡季不淡、AIDC 和人形加速 2025 年 12 月 07 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 行业走势 -20% -14% -8% -2% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 34% 40% 2024/12/6 2025/4/6 2025/8/5 2025/12/4 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究 《锂电需求旺盛淡季不淡，AI 储能需 求强劲》 2025-11-30 《储能锂电需求旺盛、明年盈利修复 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阮巧燕 执业证书：S0600517120002 021-60199793 ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 头、大力布局 HVDC）、中矿资源（碳酸锂优质资源有弹性、铯铷等盈利稳健）、盛新锂能（低位积极布局 锂资源、碳酸锂涨价弹性大）、赣锋锂业（自有矿比例提升碳酸锂龙头、电池初具规模）、上海洗霸（全 面布局固态、有研合资硫化锂有望领先）、纳科诺尔（干法设备 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 宏观量化经济指数周报 20251207 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 2025 年 12 月 07 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《货币政策：体系"科学稳健"不代 表取向"稳健"》 2025-12-06 《权益 ETF 系列：持续磨底，大级别 反攻行情仍需要保持耐心》 预计 11 月社融增速延续回落，出口增速由负 转正 2025-12-06 东吴证券研究所 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2025 年 12 月 7 日，本周 ECI 供给指数为49.93%，较上周回落0.02个百分点；ECI需求指数为49.87%， 较上周回升 0.01 个百分点。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.87%，较 上周环比持平；EC ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In December, the bond market adjusted. The 10 - year Treasury active bond yield decreased by 0.05bp to 1.8285% from last Friday. The stock and bond markets have been weak, not showing a complete "stock - bond seesaw" effect, especially for ultra - long bonds with a significant interest rate increase. Due to factors like the "anti - involution" policy and the fund fee rate new regulation draft, institutions may sell in advance to avoid fluctuations. In the context of the "asset shortage," it is recommended to gradually increase bond allocation when the 10 - year Treasury active bond yield reaches 1.85%, but shorten the duration [1][14]. - Overseas, the market is pricing in the Fed's interest rate cut. The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike on December 19 is a focus. The US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased, the manufacturing PMI continued to contract, and the Fed is focused on interest rate cut expectations and the change of the chairman. The probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in December 2025 is 86.20%, and the probability of another cut in January 2026 has decreased [15][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week View - **Domestic Bond Market**: The 10 - year Treasury active bond yield decreased by 0.05bp to 1.8285% from last Friday. The yield fluctuated throughout the week due to various factors such as market expectations of the central bank's bond - buying volume, policy expectations, and news from the Financial Times [1][10]. - **Overseas Market**: The market is pricing in the Fed's interest rate cut. The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike on December 19 is a focus. The US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 457,000 barrels from the week of November 21 to November 28. The manufacturing PMI continued to contract, and the Fed is focused on interest rate cut expectations and the change of the chairman. The probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in December 2025 is 86.20%, and the probability of another cut in January 2026 has decreased [15][24]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary - **Liquidity Tracking**: In the open - market operations from December 1 to December 5, 2025, the net investment was - 84.8 billion yuan. The money market interest rates showed some changes, with some rates decreasing and others increasing slightly [30][31]. - **Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking**: Steel prices showed mixed changes, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices also fluctuated. The prices of commodities such as coal, oil, and vegetables also changed to varying degrees [49]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: In the primary market, 56 local bonds were issued with a total amount of 108.717 billion yuan, including 58.277 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, 39.049 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 11.392 billion yuan of new general bonds. The net financing amount was 60.493 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive, strategic development, and shantytown renovation projects [75]. - **Secondary Market Overview**: The stock of local bonds was 54.01 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 31.0134 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.57%. The top three provinces with the most active trading were Hubei, Guangdong, and Shandong. The top three active trading maturities were 30Y, 20Y, and 10Y. The local bond yields generally increased [91][93]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: A total of 291 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance of 232.914 billion yuan, a total repayment of 174.89 billion yuan, and a net financing of 58.024 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.825 billion yuan from last week. Among them, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 14.491 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 72.515 billion yuan [98][99]. - **Issuance Interest Rate**: The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [109]. - **Secondary Market Transaction Overview**: The total turnover of credit bonds was 531.676 billion yuan. The trading volume of each bond type varied, with medium - term notes having the largest trading volume [110]. - **Yield to Maturity**: The yields to maturity of various bonds, including national development bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds, generally increased [110][111][112]. - **Credit Spread**: The credit spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a divergent trend, while the credit spreads of corporate bonds also showed a general divergent trend, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally narrowed [114][119][122]. - **Rating Spread**: The rating spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a divergent trend, and the rating spreads of corporate bonds and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [125][127][129]. - **Trading Activity**: The top five most actively traded bonds of each type were listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [133][134]. - **Subject Rating Change**: There were no bonds with rating or outlook upgrades or downgrades this week [135][136]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 "扩大服务消费"最直接方向——文旅公司 变革：股权变更，项目收并购，管理层变革 等 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月 07 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600525070003 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 2024/12/9 2025/4/8 2025/8/6 2025/12/4 商贸零售 沪深300 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20251207 12 月降息"已定"，如何看待明年美联储货币 政策节奏？ 2025 年 12 月 07 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《货币政策：体系"科学稳健"不代 表取向"稳健"》 2025-12-06 《权益 ETF 系列：持续磨底，大级别 反攻行情仍需要保持耐心》 2025-12-06 东吴证券研究所 1 / 7 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：本周大幅不及预期的就业数据和基本符合预期的通胀数据令 市场基本定价美联储 12 月降息，美股再度上行；而日央行鹰派言论则 令日央行 12 月加息预期大幅抬升，带动美债利率上行。向前看，我们 认为未来市场对美 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·医药生物 医药生物行业跟踪周报 看好创新药出海，重点推荐恒瑞医药、百济 神州等 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 《海外小核酸进入收获期，关注国内 悦康、前沿、福元等》 2025-11-30 《药店现金流稳健、估值低，重点推 荐益丰药房、大参林等》 2025-11-23 2025 年 12 月 07 日 证券分析师 朱国广 执业证书：S0600520070004 zhugg@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -13% -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 2024/12/9 2025/4/8 2025/8/6 2025/12/4 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究 东吴证券研究所 1 / 32 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周、年初至今 A 股医药指数涨幅分别为-0.74%、15.86%，相对沪深 300 的超额收益分别为-2.02%、-0.65%；本周、年初至今恒生生物科技 指数涨跌幅分别为-0.71%、80.40%，相对于恒生科技指数跑赢-1.87%、 52.43%；本周医药商业（+5.1 ...