2026 年 02 月 12 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 蒋韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 常津铭（研究员） 证书编号：S0790126010044 相关研究报告 太空光伏板块的资金行为监测 ——金融工程定期 《有色金属板块的资金行为监测》 -2025.10.10 《 消 费 板 块 的 资 金 行 为 监 测 》 -2025.11.14 《商业航天板块的资金行为监测》 -2025.12.11 《脑机接口板块的资金行为监测》 -2026.01.09 | 魏建榕（分析师） | 苏俊豪（分析师） | 高鹏（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | weijianrong@kyse ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Longxin General (隆鑫通用) as a first-time coverage [1] Core Views - Longxin General is a leading company in the motorcycle and all-terrain vehicle sectors in China, with a strategic focus on three main business areas: motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles, and general machinery. The company has made significant advancements in high-end motorcycle series and smart garden machinery through continuous technological innovation [2][4] - The collaboration with Zongshen Power, a major shareholder, is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness through synergies in technology research and development, supply chain management, and overseas channels [2] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.73 billion, 2.25 billion, and 2.70 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.84, 1.10, and 1.31 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 18.9, 14.5, and 12.1 times for the same years [2] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue is expected to grow from 13.066 billion yuan in 2023 to 27.396 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 12.7% from 2020 to 2024 [6][28] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 583 million yuan in 2023 to 2.698 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 23.6% during the same period [6][28] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 18% from 2024 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to rise from 4.5% in 2023 to 9.8% in 2027 [6][28] - The company’s EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.28 yuan in 2023 to 1.31 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong earnings growth [6][28] Business Development - Longxin General has optimized its business structure by focusing on core areas and divesting non-core businesses, which has led to improved profitability [3][28] - The motorcycle segment is expected to see significant growth, with the high-end "Wuji" brand contributing over 30% of motorcycle revenue by 2024, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.9% from 2020 to 2024 [4][52] - The all-terrain vehicle segment is also experiencing rapid growth, with a revenue increase of 73.9% in 2024 [54] - The company is expanding its global presence, with products sold in over 90 countries and more than 2,000 sales points worldwide [4][39] Strategic Changes - The recent change in shareholding structure, with Zongshen New Manufacturing becoming the controlling shareholder, is expected to bring significant synergies and enhance governance [3][22] - The management team remains stable, with experienced leaders who have been with the company for many years, ensuring continuity in strategic execution [25][26]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Longxin General (603766.SH) for the first time [1]. Core Views - Longxin General is a leading company in the motorcycle and all-terrain vehicle sectors in China, with a strategic focus on three main business areas: motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles, and general machinery. The company has made significant advancements in high-end motorcycles and smart garden machinery through continuous product innovation [2][4]. - The collaboration with Zongshen Power, a major shareholder, is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness through synergies in technology research and development, supply chain management, and overseas channels [2][3]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.73 billion, 2.25 billion, and 2.70 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.84, 1.10, and 1.31 yuan, leading to a PE ratio of 18.9, 14.5, and 12.1 times [2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 13.066 billion yuan in 2023 to 27.396 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 583 million yuan in 2023 to 2.698 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 19.7% [6]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 18% from 2024 onwards, while the net margin is projected to rise from 4.5% in 2023 to 9.8% in 2027 [6]. Business Development - Longxin General has optimized its business structure by focusing on core areas and divesting non-core businesses, which has led to improved profitability. The motorcycle and engine business revenue is expected to grow significantly, contributing to 75.4% of total revenue by 2024 [20][28]. - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix covering various motorcycle segments, including high-performance models under the "VOGE" brand, which is expected to drive growth in the mid to high displacement motorcycle market [20][39]. - The all-terrain vehicle (ATV) segment is also experiencing growth, with a revenue increase of 73.9% in 2024, supported by a robust product lineup and expansion into international markets [54][58]. Strategic Changes - The recent change in the company's shareholding structure, with Zongshen New Manufacturing becoming the controlling shareholder, is anticipated to bring significant synergies and enhance governance [3][22]. - The management team remains stable, with experienced leaders who have been with the company for many years, ensuring continuity in strategic execution [25][26]. Market Position - Longxin General has established a global distribution network covering over 90 countries and more than 2,000 sales points, enhancing its brand presence and operational capabilities [4][39]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles, particularly in international markets, as it continues to innovate and expand its product offerings [4][39].

美国就业市场短期仍显现较强韧性 宏观研究团队 ——美国 1 月非农就业数据点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 1 月非农就业数据。新增非农就业 13 万，高于市场预期；失业 率为 4.3%，低于市场预期。平均时薪同比增长 3.7%，符合预期。 宏观经济点评 2026 年 02 月 12 日 新增非农就业超预期上行，2025 年数据大幅下修 1. 新增非农就业上行较多，但 2025 年新增就业数据大幅下修 1 月美国新增非农就业 13 万人，较 2025 年 12 月份初值（5.0 万）有较大幅度上 行，高于市场预期的 6.5 万。2025 年 11 月、2025 年 12 月新增非农就业分别下 修 0.2 万、1.5 万，两个月累计下修 1.7 万 。此外，由于 BLS 在年初会对就业数 据进行基准修订，报告还显示 2025 年 3 月的美国总就业人数下修 89.8 万，在 新 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to see a 46.39% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with projected revenue of 406 million yuan for 2025 [4] - The core business segments are experiencing a recovery in demand, contributing to stable revenue and profit growth [4] - The company is actively expanding into new product categories and enhancing its overseas business presence [5] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 389 million yuan in 2023 to 662 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23.7% [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 53 million yuan in 2023 to 103 million yuan in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 18.4% in 2027 [7] - The company's gross margin is projected to stabilize around 30.6% from 2026 onwards [8] Business Development - The company has established a presence in overseas markets, with external sales accounting for approximately 56.88% of total revenue as of Q3 2025 [5] - New factories are in trial production, which will help address capacity constraints once regulatory approvals are obtained [5] - The company plans to diversify its product offerings beyond amino acids to include derivatives, functional peptides, and other innovative products [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [3] Core Insights - The company has reported a significant increase in its net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 45% in the net profit attributable to the parent company [5] - The semiconductor and consumer sectors are experiencing a dual resonance, driving the company's growth and market positioning [6] - The electronic measurement instrument market is projected to grow steadily, with the market size expected to reach 55.81 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 12.33% from 2020 [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 232 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.57%, and a net profit of 69.1 million yuan, up 37.01% [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.43 yuan in 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 82.2, 68.3, and 56.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][8] - The gross margin is expected to be 58.3% in 2025, with a net margin of 29.8% [8][12] Market and Industry Trends - The company is focusing on the power semiconductor industry, aligning its product development with core testing needs in the sector [6] - The electronic measurement instrument market is benefiting from policy support, the commercialization of 5G, and the rapid penetration of the electric vehicle market [7] - The company is enhancing its market promotion and channel layout, deepening cooperation with strategic customers to solidify its integrated testing service capabilities [6]

金融工程专题 2026 年 02 月 11 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 蒋韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 常津铭（研究员） 证书编号：S0790126010044 相关研究报告 《量体裁衣：可转债的分层组合方 法》- 2022.02.12 《可转债配置：低估值增强与风格轮 动》- 2024.05.30 《可转债基金：分类、配置与优选》 2024.12.31 可转债指数的复制与增强 ——开源量化评论（120） 魏建榕（分析师） 苏俊豪（分析师） weijianrong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519120001 sujunhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522020 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Event-Driven Stock Selection Strategy Based on Internal Incentive and Commitment Events - **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages three core internal incentive and commitment events—equity incentives, employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs), and stock repurchase plans—to construct an event-driven stock selection strategy. These events are considered to have significant pricing implications for stock performance[3][4][14] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Equity Incentive Strategy**: - Select stocks that announced equity incentive plans within the past 60 calendar days - Exclude stocks that terminated equity incentives by the end of the month - Use equity incentive scale as a positive indicator and executive shareholding ratio as a negative indicator - Normalize scores using z-score and select the top 15 stocks for equal-weighted holding - Rebalance monthly with a transaction fee of 0.3% per side[119][121] 2. **ESOP Strategy**: - Select stocks that announced ESOPs within the past 60 calendar days - Exclude stocks that terminated ESOPs by the end of the month - Use ESOP scale as a positive indicator and select the top 15 stocks for equal-weighted holding - Rebalance monthly with a transaction fee of 0.3% per side[124][127] 3. **Stock Repurchase Strategy**: - Select stocks that announced stock repurchase plans within the past 60 calendar days - Rank stocks by trailing twelve-month (TTM) net profit and select the bottom 15 stocks for equal-weighted holding - Rebalance monthly with a transaction fee of 0.3% per side[131][133] 4. **Multi-Strategy Fusion**: - Combine the above three strategies into a unified portfolio using equal weighting - Rebalance monthly to form a composite investment strategy[138][140] 2. Model Evaluation - **Equity Incentive Strategy**: Demonstrates strong long-term performance with significant excess returns over the benchmark, indicating its effectiveness in capturing pricing signals from equity incentive events[121] - **ESOP Strategy**: Shows robust excess returns, with larger ESOP scales generally leading to higher future returns, reflecting the market's positive response to employee ownership[127] - **Stock Repurchase Strategy**: Exhibits higher volatility and less stable excess returns compared to the other two strategies, but still provides meaningful pricing signals, especially for companies with low current profitability[136] - **Multi-Strategy Fusion**: Combines the strengths of individual strategies, achieving complementary effects and delivering stable excess returns over the benchmark[141] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Equity Incentive Strategy - Annualized Return: 27.02% - Annualized Volatility: 33.16% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.83 - IR: 1.13 - Maximum Drawdown: -54.89%[121][122] 2. ESOP Strategy - Annualized Return: 20.92% - Annualized Volatility: 29.00% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.73 - IR: 1.05 - Maximum Drawdown: -57.34%[127][128] 3. Stock Repurchase Strategy - Annualized Return: 16.04% - Annualized Volatility: 27.75% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.6 - IR: 0.8 - Maximum Drawdown: -36.15%[136][137] 4. Multi-Strategy Fusion - Annualized Return: 22.62% - Annualized Volatility: 29.58% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.77 - IR: 1.13 - Maximum Drawdown: -56.03%[141][142] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Equity Incentive Scale - **Factor Construction Idea**: The scale of equity incentives reflects the intensity of management's commitment to improving company performance and aligning interests with shareholders[87] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the proportion of granted shares to total shares based on equity incentive announcements - Group samples into quintiles and analyze cumulative returns over 60 trading days post-announcement[87][88] - **Factor Evaluation**: Larger equity incentive scales are positively correlated with stronger stock performance, indicating effective alignment of management and shareholder interests[87] 2. Factor Name: ESOP Scale - **Factor Construction Idea**: The scale of ESOPs indicates the degree of employee engagement and alignment with company performance[89] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the proportion of ESOP shares to total shares based on ESOP announcements - Group samples into quintiles and analyze cumulative returns over 60 trading days post-announcement[89][91] - **Factor Evaluation**: While not strictly monotonic, larger ESOP scales generally lead to better stock performance, making it a useful positive indicator[91] 3. Factor Name: Stock Repurchase Scale - **Factor Construction Idea**: The scale of stock repurchases reflects management's confidence in the company's valuation and future prospects[93] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Use the maximum repurchase amount as a proportion of total shares to measure repurchase scale - Group samples into quintiles and analyze cumulative returns over 60 trading days post-announcement[93][95] - **Factor Evaluation**: Higher repurchase scales are associated with better stock performance, particularly for mid-to-high scale groups[95] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Equity Incentive Scale - Highest Quintile Annualized Return: >35%[90] 2. ESOP Scale - Highest Quintile Annualized Return: ~30-35%[92] 3. Stock Repurchase Scale - Second-Highest Quintile Annualized Return: ~50-60%[95] 4. Multi-Strategy Fusion - Annualized Return Range: 21%-28% across different parameter settings[149][150]

2026 年 02 月 11 日 输入性因素与中高端制造带动 PPI 环比高增 宏观研究团队 宏观经济点评 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 经 济 点 评 开 《灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策 工 具 — 央 行 Q4 货政报告点评》 -2026.2.11 《AI 产业链产品出口或将延续强势— 宏观经济专题》-2026.2.11 《一文看懂日本众议院选举与日债、 日元波动及影响—宏观经济点评》 -2026.2.6 hening@kysec.cn 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522110002 guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070004 事件：1 月 CPI 同比 0.2%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.8%；PPI 同比-1.4%，预期-1.5%， 前值-1.9%。 贵金属与大宗消费品带动核心 CPI 环比超季节性 1 月 CPI 同比较前值下降 0.6 个百分点至 0.2%；环比持平于前值，为 0.2%。 1、蔬果价格带动食品 CPI 环比增速回落 1 月 CPI 食品项环比涨幅收窄，环比较前值下降 0.3 个百分点至 0%。鲜菜环比 降幅扩大，鲜果环比涨幅 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a clear recovery trend in the industry, with optimistic expectations for the sector [3] - The packaging water industry is experiencing steady growth driven by an upgrade in health awareness among consumers, with market size expected to exceed 300 billion by 2028 [5] - The competitive landscape of the packaging water industry is evolving, with a shift from price wars to value competition, benefiting leading companies [6] - Product innovation and segmentation are accelerating, with a focus on quality upgrades and tailored products for specific consumption scenarios [7] - Structural opportunities are emerging in the industry, particularly for high-quality leading companies such as Nongfu Spring, China Resources Beverage, and Quanyuan Spring [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The packaging water market size grew from 152.6 billion in 2018 to 215 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1% [5] - The industry is expected to maintain a mid-to-high single-digit growth rate in the medium to long term [5] Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top five companies holding nearly 60% market share as of 2023 [6] - Future competition is anticipated to focus on value rather than price, favoring established brands with strong resources and market presence [6] Product Development - There is a notable trend towards product innovation, with leading companies investing in high-quality mineral water and convenient packaging options [7] - New product categories targeting specific consumer needs, such as maternal and infant water and sports water, are emerging [7] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for structural opportunities in the packaging water sector, particularly for companies with strong competitive advantages [8] - Nongfu Spring is noted for its recovery in performance and market confidence, while China Resources Beverage is expected to benefit from strategic adjustments under new management [8] - Quanyuan Spring is focusing on its core mineral water business, which has shown significant sales growth [8]