2025 年 09 月 12 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -24% 0% 24% 48% 72% 96% 120% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 计算机 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《周观点：迎接 AI 算力投资浪潮—行 业周报》-2025.9.7 《AI 算力景气度持续加速—行业周 报》-2025.8.31 《"人工智能+"行动意见发布，迎接 AI 投资大时代—行业点评报告》 -2025.8.27 计算机 空天算力迎来布局良机 ——行业点评报告 陈宝健（分析师） chenbaojian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520080001 事件：之江实验室主任王坚再次强调空天算力 9 月 11 日，2025 Inclusion·外滩大会上，阿里云创始人、之江实验室主任王坚 发表《人工智能：从代码开放到资源开放》重磅演讲。提出人工智能不应该缺席 太空，此前 5 月 14 日，之江实验室发起的"三体计算星座"12 颗卫星上天，并 首次地面真正意义上的 8B AI 模型放到太空，第一次完整地实现太空卫星的互通 互联。 算力上天大有可为，太空 AI 前景光明 传统模式 ...

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. CPI for August 2025 increased by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations[2] - Core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations[2] Inflation Trends - Overall inflation has rebounded, while core inflation remains stable, indicating a clearer impact from tariffs on U.S. inflation[3] - Energy inflation turned positive with a 0.2% year-on-year increase, while food prices rose by 3.2%, up 0.3 percentage points from July[3][18] - Core goods inflation increased by 0.37 percentage points to 1.54% year-on-year, while core services saw a slight decline of about 0.05 percentage points[3][21] Future Outlook - The rebound in inflation may be temporary, with core inflation expected to trend downward due to high base effects and stable tariff policies[3][33] - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, with a total of three rate cuts anticipated for the year[5][44] Market Implications - The Fed's economic forecasts and rate cut paths will significantly influence asset prices, especially in light of labor market risks and inflation expectations[5][43] - If the Fed raises inflation forecasts while lowering economic growth expectations, market risk appetite may be suppressed, affecting short-term Treasury yields[5][43]

2025 年 09 月 12 日 开源晨会 0912 其 他 研 究 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | 7.393 | | 电子 | 5.956 | | 计算机 | 3.715 | | 农林牧渔 | 2.743 | | 非银金融 | 2.615 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 纺织服饰 | 0.137 | | 石油石化 | 0.201 | | 社会服务 | 0.221 | | 交通运输 | 0.24 | | 医药生物 | 0.249 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【策略】港股补涨契机中的资产掘金机会——投资策略专题-20250910 自 2025 年"对等关税"冲击至今，港股呈现"健康 ...

行 业 研 2025 年 09 月 11 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -34% 0% 34% 67% 101% 134% 168% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 通信 沪深300 相关研究报告 《OCS 或加速发展，光通信、液冷迎 新机遇—行业点评报告》-2025.9.8 《博通上调四季度指引，新增大客户 XPU 需求旺盛，全球 AI 景气度持续上 行—行业周报》-2025.9.7 《英伟达 Rubin 开启生产，阿里财报 亮眼，重视国产算力、液冷、光通信 投资机会—行业周报》-2025.8.31 Rubin CPX 或大幅提升光模块和液冷需求 ——行业点评报告 | 蒋颖（分析师） | 雷星宇（联系人） | | --- | --- | | jiangying@kysec.cn | leixingyu@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523120003 | 证书编号：S0790124040002 | leixingyu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124040002 Rubin CPX 亮相，强化推理性能，有望带来更多互联需求 2025 年 ...

北 交 所 研 究 万通液压（830839.BJ） 重卡、JG 装备等推动主要产品营收毛利双增，2025H1 归母净利润+40.33% ——北交所信息更新 2025 年 09 月 11 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/9/10 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 40.84 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 55.75/8.91 | | 总市值(亿元) | 48.69 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 26.98 | | 总股本(亿股) | 1.19 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 0.66 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 274.04 | 北交所研究团队 北交所信息更新 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 2025H1 实现归母净利润 0.67 亿元+40.33%，维持"买入"评级 万通液压披露半年报，2025H1 实现总营业收入 3.44 亿元，同比增长 13.12%；实 现归母净利润 0.67 亿元，同比增长 40.33%。考虑到万通液压在各主要产品类型 均产生较大增长，海外拓展成效显现，并预期合作盘古智能 ...

2025 年 09 月 10 日 策略研究团队 港股补涨契机中的资产掘金机会 ——投资策略专题 weijixing@kysec.cn 韦冀星（分析师） 耿驰政（联系人） gengchizheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050007 港股补涨的背景与逻辑 自 2025 年"对等关税"冲击至今，港股呈现"健康的"温和震荡上行行情，但 相较 A 股的相对收益明显趋弱，核心或在于以下三方面原因：（1）8 月金管局持 续收紧资金面，3 个月 HIBOR 由 2025 年 08 月初的 1.62%升至月末的 3.30%，上 行约 168bp，1 个月 HIBOR 则由 0.99%升至 3.30%，上行约 230bp，直接压制部 分杠杆资金的融资成本；（2）海外 7 月降息预期落空，美联储宽松预期推迟至 9 月，6 月非农就业整体仍显韧性，失业率下行强化了"经济尚未显著转弱"的判 断，导致降息交易回撤，美债利率上行，全球流动性改善节奏推迟；（3）以"美 团、阿里和京东"为代表的互联网电商平台内卷式竞争加剧压制盈利预期，而 A 股凭借 AI 等产业链与核心宽基的赚钱效应快速扩散，形成流动性驱动的行情， ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The year-on-year growth rate of PPI rebounded to -2.9% in August, up from -3.6% in the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in industrial price pressures [4][8] - CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, which is lower than the expected -0.2%, suggesting ongoing deflationary pressures in consumer prices [4][5] - The core CPI has remained above seasonal levels for five consecutive months, indicating a potential stabilization in consumer demand [7][9] Group 2: Real Estate Industry Overview - The A-share real estate sector reported a revenue of 712.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 11.6%, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to the previous year [28] - Key real estate companies have shown improved land acquisition efforts, with a total land purchase amount of 399.9 billion yuan, representing 72% of their total for 2024 [29] - The overall policy environment remains supportive, with measures aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting housing demand, leading to a gradual recovery in transactions in some first- and second-tier cities [30][31] Group 3: Financial Sector Developments - The new regulations on fund sales are expected to lower subscription fees and standardize service fees, which may alter investor preferences towards more liquid financial products [22][23] - The demand for high liquidity financial products is anticipated to increase, particularly for those with minimal holding periods, as investors seek better returns amid changing fee structures [24] - The shift towards ETF trading and long-term holding of bonds is likely as investors adapt to the new redemption fee structures [25] Group 4: Company-Specific Updates - The company "Saiwei Times" announced a stock incentive plan aimed at enhancing its long-term incentive mechanisms, with a target net profit growth of 70%/155%/215% from 2025 to 2027 [33][34] - The company is leveraging digital transformation to enhance its product development, brand management, and supply chain efficiency, which is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the current weakness in CPI and PPI, economic data such as social financing stock growth, core CPI, and real GDP have improved, indicating that the economy is stabilizing and inflation indicators should not be over - emphasized [3] - Bond yields may rise ahead of economic recovery, and when the market doubts the economic fundamentals, bond yields continue to rise, but when the market generally expects economic recovery, the yield increase may be near the end [5] - Inflation data may also lag behind bond yields, as shown by historical examples in 2009 and 2020 [5] - Given the improvement in some economic data compared to 2024 and the historical pattern of bond yields rising ahead of economic and inflation indicators, bond yields are expected to rise [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Economic Data Improvement - Social financing stock year - on - year increased from +7.8% in November 2024 to +9.0% in July 2025 [3] - Government - funded expenditure cumulative year - on - year increased from - 20.5% in April 2024 to +31.7% in July 2025 [3] - Core CPI monthly year - on - year increased from - 0.1% in February 2025 to +0.9% in July 2025 [7] - Real GDP quarterly year - on - year increased from +4.6% in Q3 2024 to +5.2% in Q2 2025 [7] - The monthly average of social consumer goods retail year - on - year in 2025 was +4.98%, significantly higher than the +3.28% monthly average in 2024 [3] Bond Yield and Economic Data Deviation - In 2020, when economic data was weak in June, the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.50% on April 29 to 3.08% on July 9, with a cumulative increase of 58BP, showing a deviation from economic data. In November 2020, economic data improved, but the 10 - year Treasury yield had reached a high of 3.35% and then started to decline [4] Inflation Data Lagging - In 2009, after the 4 - trillion policy was introduced in November 2008, CPI and PPI continued to decline until July 2009, but the 10 - year Treasury yield had risen from 2.67% to 3.53% in August 2009, with a cumulative increase of 86BP [5] - In November 2020, inflation data was at a low level, but the 10 - year Treasury yield had significantly risen to 3.35% [5]

2025 年 09 月 10 日 宏观经济点评 宏 观 经 济 点 开 源 证 券 证 券 相关研究报告 PPI 同比增速回升或因输入性与地产链基数回落 《非美地区需求或仍锚定美国需求— 宏观经济点评》-2025.9.9 《国债买卖或重启，服务消费有望加 码—宏观周报》-2025.9.7 《 就业降温明显，但 50bp 降息尚需 通胀配合—美国 8 月非农就业数据点 评》-2025.9.6 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） | hening@kysec.cn | | | guoxiaobin@kysec.cn | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | | | 证书编号：S0790525070004 | | | 事件：8 月 | CPI | 同比-0.4%，预期-0.2%，前值 | 0%；PPI | 同比-2.9%，预期-2.9%， | 核心 CPI 环比连续五个月超季节性 8 月 CPI 同比较前值下降 0.4 个百分点至-0.4%；环比较前值下降 0.4 个百分点 至 0%。 1、鲜菜价格带动食品 CPI 环比回升 8 月 CPI ...

业 研 究 2025 年 09 月 10 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 银行 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《测算：高息定存到期规模、节奏与 成 本 改 善 空 间 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.8.21 《"过度减点"贷款减少，定价暂难突 破成本线—2025Q2 央行货币政策执 行报告学习》-2025.8.17 《2025Q2 银行经营：盈利修复、息差 平稳、风险改善 —行业点评报告》 -2025.8.17 理财规模有望受益，投资基金偏好或生变 ——基金销售费新规征求意见稿点评 | 刘呈祥（分析师） | 吴文鑫（分析师） | | --- | --- | | liuchengxiang@kysec.cn | wuwenxin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523060002 | 证书编号：S0790524060002 | 居民仍偏好高流动性产品，理财性价比凸显，规模有望加速上升。2025 年 1-5 月理 财增长最多的产品为"最小持有期"型（比如最短持有 7 天/ ...