基础化工 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 29 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 基础化工 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《H 酸行业供给或偏紧，H 酸-活性染 料 价 格 或 上 涨 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.6.24 《固态电池产业化进展加速，高性能 材料产业化先行 —行业点评报告》 -2025.6.23 《硫化锂为固态电池电解质主流量产 趋势，瓶片宣布联合减产后价格有所 上扬—化工行业周报》-2025.6.22 磷矿石景气高位维稳，磷化工产品格局持续优化，看 好矿化一体企业长景气与高分红共振 ——行业深度报告 | 金益腾（分析师） | 徐正凤（分析师） | | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | xuzhengfeng@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790524070005 | xuzhengfeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070005 磷化工：磷矿石景气高位维 ...

2025 年 06 月 29 日 北证行业：五大行业本周平均涨跌幅均收涨 本周高端装备、信息技术、化工新材、消费服务、医药生物五大行业平均涨跌幅 分别为+6.80%、+12.82%、+5.33%、+4.65%、+5.18%。高端装备行业本周市盈 率中值升至 47.2X，信息技术行业本周市盈率中值升至 93.0X，化工新材行业本 周市盈率中值升至 43.8X，消费服务行业本周市盈率中值升至 59.1X，医药生物 行业本周市盈率中值升至 46.3X。 科技新产业：本周四大行业市盈率 TTM 中值均上升 北交所科技新产业 150 家企业中 145 家上涨，区间涨跌幅中值为+7.42%,广道数 字+48.68%,同辉信息+44.14%,国源科技+44.11%,联迪信息+40.48%,星辰科技 +31.63%位列涨幅前五。150 家企业的市盈率中值由 52.2X 升至 57.9X。150 家企 业的市值整体上升，总市值由 4439.41 上升至 4789.08 亿元，市值中值由 22.40 上升至 23.57 亿元。智能制造产业 53 家企业的市盈率 TTM 中值升至 52.5X。电 子产业 44 家企业的市盈率 TT ...

| 日期 | 2025/6/26 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 21.06 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 24.36/7.23 | | 总市值(亿元) | 96.35 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 72.81 | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.58 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 3.46 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 148.67 | 北交所公司深度报告 同力股份（834599.BJ） 2025 年 06 月 27 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 北交所研究团队 新能源与无人驾驶技术赋能高毛利新品，矿卡龙头打开增长空间 ——北交所公司深度报告 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 2025Q1 公司营收 15.36 亿元（+28.34%），归母净利润 1.87 亿元（+58.45%） 2025 年一季度公司实现营收 15.36 亿元，同比增长 28.34%；归母净利润 1.87 亿 元，同比增长 58.45%；扣非归母净利润 1.85 亿元，同比增长 60.66%。受下游需 求影响，我们维持 2025 年盈利预测，下调 2 ...

2025 年 06 月 27 日 投资评级：买入（首次） 日期 2025/6/27 当前股价(元) 169.00 一年最高最低(元) 204.22/161.80 总市值(亿元) 677.69 流通市值(亿元) 51.55 总股本(亿股) 4.01 流通股本(亿股) 0.31 近 3 个月换手率(%) 285.54 首 次 覆 盖 报 告 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 影石创新 沪深300 | 吕明（分析师） | 骆扬（分析师） | | --- | --- | | lvming@kysec.cn | luoyang@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030002 | 证书编号：S0790525050002 | 电子/消费电子 影石创新（688775.SH） 全景智能影像设备龙头，技术护航+产品创新驱动成 财务摘要和估值指标 | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

2025 年 06 月 27 日 开源晨会 0627 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 银行 | 1.01 | | 通信 | 0.773 | | 国防军工 | 0.552 | | 社会服务 | 0.423 | | 石油石化 | 0.273 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 汽车 | -1.374 | | 非银金融 | -1.199 | | 医药生物 | -1.046 | | 美容护理 | -1.037 | | 钢铁 | -0.756 | 数据来源：聚源 wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 行业公司 【非银金融】券商中报向好叠加公募欠配，看好板块机会——行业点评报告 -20250625 综上，提经济、稳股市政策态度延续，货币政策适度宽松，证券行 ...

2025 年 06 月 26 日 开源晨会 0626 ——晨会纪要 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 非银金融 | 4.458 | | 国防军工 | 3.364 | | 计算机 | 2.985 | | 电力设备 | 1.656 | | 商贸零售 | 1.567 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 煤炭 | -0.999 | | 石油石化 | -0.572 | | 交通运输 | -0.207 | | 美容护理 | 0.177 | | 食品饮料 | 0.254 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【金融工程】深度学习赋能技术分析——开源量化评论（109）-20250625 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 沪深300 创业板指 我们深度论证了在使用深度学习挖 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant improvement in market data for the second quarter of 2025, with brokerage firms experiencing a year-on-year increase in trading volume and new account openings [4] - The report anticipates a continued high growth rate for listed brokerage firms' mid-year reports, projecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 50% [4] - The report emphasizes the favorable policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market and boosting the economy, which are expected to benefit the brokerage sector [5] - The report identifies three main investment themes within the brokerage sector: undervalued leading brokers with strong retail business, high beta financial technology stocks, and brokers benefiting from the expansion and activity of the Hong Kong IPO market [6] Summary by Sections Market Data Improvement - In Q2 2025, the average daily stock trading volume reached 12.5 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 48% [4] - The number of new accounts opened from January to May 2025 was 10.95 million, up 30% year-on-year [4] - The margin trading scale as of June 24 was 1.82 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 22% [4] Investment Banking and IPOs - The IPO scale from January to June 2025 was 37.1 billion, with 50 projects, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14% [4] - The report notes a significant increase in IPO activity in Q2 2025, with a scale of 23.6 billion and 30 projects, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 75% [4] Policy Environment - The report discusses the "1+6" policy measures introduced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which are expected to facilitate IPOs for unprofitable companies [5] - The report mentions a joint guideline from the central bank and other departments aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the economy [5] Valuation and Fund Allocation - The report indicates that public funds are significantly underweight in the non-bank financial sector, with a notable need for reallocation [6] - As of June 25, the brokerage sector's price-to-book (PB) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios were 1.44 and 20.75, respectively, indicating that valuations remain low [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform" [3][5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 540 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.89% [5] - The company has begun trial production of its 30,000 tons/year THF production line, with a current load of 70% as of mid-May 2025 [6] - The expansion of the benzyl alcohol production line is ongoing, with 61% of the project completed by the end of 2024 [6] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company is projected to generate a revenue of 540 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -3.45 million yuan [5][8] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.19 yuan, 0.39 yuan, and 0.53 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 86.0, 42.2, and 30.9 [5][8] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 17.5%, with a net margin of -0.6% [11] Production and Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its THF production capacity and has also initiated projects related to mercury-free PVC catalysts and NMN [6] - The fine chemical segment is projected to achieve a revenue of 501 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 14.55% [5] Research and Development - The company has completed the industrial verification of a mercury-free ionic liquid catalyst for VCM synthesis and is in discussions with downstream PVC customers [6] - Ongoing research includes small molecule heparin and enzyme-based solutions, with significant progress in the development of NMN products [6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: LSTMtech - **Model Construction Idea**: Directly use LSTM to extract factors from stock price data and technical indicators without incorporating financial data[13][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Input layer includes stock price data (open, high, low, close, volume) and technical indicators generated using the `talib` library[15] 2. Training process uses a rolling window: 6 years for training, 2 years for validation, updated annually[15] 3. Factor performance metrics: RankIC of 7.42%, RankICIR of 4.25, annualized return of 24.02% for 10 long-short groups[15] 2. Model Name: LSTMdeap_tech - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine effective factors extracted by genetic algorithms with original technical indicators, then use LSTM for further factor mining[3][24][26] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Genetic algorithm is applied to original technical indicators to extract effective factors using a sample period from 2010 to 2016[24] 2. Effective factors are combined with original technical indicators and input into the LSTM framework[26] 3. Factor performance metrics: RankIC of 9.27%, RankICIR of 4.54, annualized return of 32.44% for 10 long-short groups[26] 3. Model Name: LSTMgraph - **Model Construction Idea**: Use LSTM to extract factors based on manually defined graphical states of stock price patterns and technical indicators[32][41] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Graphical states are manually defined based on K-line patterns and technical indicator positions (e.g., relative positions of moving averages)[33] 2. States are input into the LSTM framework for training, including synthesized K-line patterns from 1 to 20 days[41] 3. Factor performance metrics: RankIC of 9.01%, RankICIR of 4.70, annualized return of 32.25% for 10 long-short groups[41][44] 4. Model Name: LSTMdeap_tech_graph - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine LSTMdeap_tech and LSTMgraph factors equally to enhance performance[5][47][49] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Combine LSTMdeap_tech and LSTMgraph factors with equal weights[47] 2. Factor performance metrics: RankIC of 10.89%, RankICIR of 4.99, annualized return of 37.28% for 10 long-short groups[49] 5. Model Name: LSTMpro_combined - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine LSTMdeap_tech_graph with a factor derived from broader data sources (e.g., minute-level aggregated daily indicators, financial data)[6][54] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Combine LSTMdeap_tech_graph with the broader factor using equal weights[54] 2. Factor performance metrics: RankIC of 11.93%, annualized return of 39.85% for 10 long-short groups[54] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. LSTMtech - RankIC: 7.42% - RankICIR: 4.25 - Annualized return (10 long-short groups): 24.02%[15] 2. LSTMdeap_tech - RankIC: 9.27% - RankICIR: 4.54 - Annualized return (10 long-short groups): 32.44%[26] 3. LSTMgraph - RankIC: 9.01% - RankICIR: 4.70 - Annualized return (10 long-short groups): 32.25%[41][44] 4. LSTMdeap_tech_graph - RankIC: 10.89% - RankICIR: 4.99 - Annualized return (10 long-short groups): 37.28%[49] 5. LSTMpro_combined - RankIC: 11.93% - Annualized return (10 long-short groups): 39.85%[54] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Tech_K_similarity - **Factor Construction Idea**: Manually define graphical states and calculate historical similarity to derive future returns[33][35] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define states based on K-line patterns and technical indicators (e.g., MACD, volume)[33] 2. Identify historical periods with similar states and calculate average excess returns over the next 20 days[35] 3. Factor performance metrics: RankIC of 5.10%, RankICIR of 3.09, annualized return of 19.25% for 10 long-short groups[39] 2. Factor Name: Tech_similarity_combined - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combine Tech_K_similarity with a similar factor derived from technical indicators[40] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Combine Tech_K_similarity and the technical indicator-based factor equally[40] 2. Factor performance metrics: RankIC of 5.89%, RankICIR of 3.25, annualized return of 25.97% for 10 long-short groups[40][43] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Tech_K_similarity - RankIC: 5.10% - RankICIR: 3.09 - Annualized return (10 long-short groups): 19.25%[39] 2. Tech_similarity_combined - RankIC: 5.89% - RankICIR: 3.25 - Annualized return (10 long-short groups): 25.97%[40][43]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company completed two national research projects, leading to a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, which grew by 245% year-on-year [3] - The company reported a revenue of 60.91 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.47%, while the net profit reached 5.66 million yuan, marking a 244.81% increase [3] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, the company is optimistic about future growth opportunities driven by its R&D capabilities and the commercialization of 5G-A technology [3] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 233 million yuan, down 13.93% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12 million yuan, down 62.90% year-on-year [3] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 19 million yuan, 33 million yuan, and 49 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.14, 0.23, and 0.35 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 165.3, 96.4, and 64.6 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] R&D and Market Activities - In 2024, the company participated in 22 market activities, including major conferences like MWC and the Global 6G Development Conference [4] - The company invested 103.86 million yuan in R&D in 2024, accounting for 44.63% of its revenue, and has been actively pursuing overseas intellectual property strategies [5] - The company has applied for a total of 512 patents, with 68.75% being invention patents, and has successfully obtained 300 authorized patents [5]