北交所信息更新 光伏加速去产能、半导体设备需求高增，2025H1 营收 10.99 亿元 ——北交所信息更新 2025 年 09 月 05 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/9/4 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 29.81 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 56.60/17.89 | | 总市值(亿元) | 69.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 66.59 | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.35 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.23 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 132.75 | 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 2025H1 实现营收 10.99 亿元、归母净利润 1.05 亿元，维持"增持"评级 连城数控公布半年报，2025H1 实现营收 10.99 亿元，同比减少 56.57%；实现归 母净利润 1.05 亿元，同比减少 67.3%。考虑到光伏行业现阶段仍然整体承压，我 们下调 2025-2026、并新增 2027 盈利预测，预计连城数控在 2025-2027 年实现归 母 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for viscose staple fiber is expected to grow steadily due to high cotton prices and strong downstream textile consumption [14][15] - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen capacity consolidation since 2021, leading to increased industry concentration [6][26] - The industry is currently experiencing high operating rates and low inventory levels, contributing to a rising price trend for viscose staple fiber [7][39] - The report recommends "Sanyou Chemical" as a key investment target and "Zhongtai Chemical" as a beneficiary of the price increase in viscose staple fiber [43][44] Summary by Sections Demand Side - The apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber is projected to be 3.81 million tons in 2023 and 4.09 million tons in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.74% and 7.28% respectively [5][14] - The retail sales of clothing and textiles in China reached 742.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.10% [5][15] - The introduction of new spinning equipment, particularly vortex spinning, is expected to further drive demand for viscose staple fiber [19] Supply Side - The effective capacity of viscose staple fiber has decreased from a peak of 5.13 million tons in 2021 to 4.885 million tons in 2024, a decline of 4.8% [6][25] - The industry has seen minimal new capacity additions since 2021, with a current operating rate of 87.6% as of August 2025 [7][31] - The top three companies in the viscose staple fiber industry hold a combined market share (CR3) of 69.77%, indicating a high level of concentration [26][34] Price Dynamics - The price of viscose staple fiber has been increasing, supported by a favorable supply-demand balance, while the price of its main raw material, dissolving pulp, has been declining [39][41] - The price difference between viscose staple fiber and dissolving pulp has widened, indicating improved profitability for industry leaders [39][41] - The report anticipates that the price of viscose staple fiber will continue to rise due to strong downstream demand and seasonal factors [39][41]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 391 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.32%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 30.46 million yuan, down 12.07% year-on-year. The gross margin decreased to 20.86% from 22.36% in H1 2024 due to the ramp-up of production capacity in the Cambodian subsidiary. The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 80 million, 97 million, and 117 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.78, 0.94, and 1.13 yuan per share. The current PE ratios are 27.7, 22.9, and 19.0 times for the respective years. The company is optimistic about the potential of its staple food products and the new brand to enhance market coverage [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, domestic sales revenue was 145 million yuan, a slight decline of 0.06%, primarily due to a 9.72% decrease in meat powder revenue. However, pet food domestic sales grew by 5.42%, with staple food sales increasing by 25.06%. The company’s export revenue reached 246 million yuan, up 19.25% year-on-year, with significant growth in jerky, canned food, and staple food products. The gross margin for exports decreased by 1.66 percentage points, while domestic gross margin fell by 2.45 percentage points [6]. Brand Development - The company launched a new brand "Miaoguan" in H1 2025, focusing on high cost-performance products. The existing "Lusi" brand continues to innovate and upgrade to higher value-added product lines. The dual-brand strategy enhances the product matrix and improves the company's ability to target different market segments [7].

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The trend of declining bond yields in China since 2014 is primarily due to the downward trend in potential economic growth [3][4][7] - Long-term bond yields may not continue to decline, as the previous logic of a bond bull market has changed, and inflation is expected to rise [7][9] - Economic growth is not expected to decline significantly in the second half of 2025, with structural issues like prices showing signs of improvement [9] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry Analysis - The food and beverage sector has underperformed the market, with a year-to-date increase of only 3.9%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by approximately 17.2 percentage points [11][12] - The snack segment has shown strong performance, with a 55.2% increase, while traditional sectors like beer and seasoning products have struggled [11][12] - Despite the overall pressure on traditional consumption, there are signs of gradual recovery expected in the second half of 2025 [12][13] Group 3: Agriculture Sector Performance - The agriculture sector achieved a revenue of 569.9 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.28%, and net profit increased by 193.46% to 25.8 billion yuan [17][18] - The livestock sector, particularly pig farming, has seen significant profit recovery, driven by lower costs and increased output [19] - The pet food segment continues to thrive, with a revenue increase of 22.03% in H1 2025, reflecting strong domestic and international demand [20] Group 4: Coal Mining Industry Updates - New Hope Liuhe's H1 2025 revenue decreased by 44.6% to 20.68 billion yuan, with net profit down 64.9% due to falling coal prices [27][28] - The company is expected to see a rebound in profits in the coming years due to new projects and improved operational efficiency [27][31] - The coal chemical sector has experienced a significant increase in methanol production, while prices for coal products have declined [30] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - New Hope Liuhe's Q2 performance showed a significant recovery in net profit, with a 46.6% increase compared to the previous quarter [23] - The company has a robust dividend policy, with a payout ratio of 70.41% in 2024, indicating strong shareholder returns [25] - Oriental Yuhong's H1 revenue was 13.57 billion yuan, down 10.8%, but the company is focusing on overseas expansion and channel development to drive future growth [33][34]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating potential recovery and growth opportunities despite current pressures [1] - The food and beverage sector has underperformed the market, with a year-to-date increase of 3.9%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by approximately 17.2 percentage points [4][16] - The snack segment has shown strong performance, with a notable increase of 55.2% from January to August 2025, while other segments like beer and seasoning products have struggled [4][16] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance has been mixed, with snacks, cooked food, and other alcoholic beverages showing positive growth, while beer and seasoning products have declined [4][16] - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards technology themes, leading to weaker performance in traditional food and beverage sectors [4][16] - The report highlights that the snack segment's strong performance is driven by companies like Wancheng Group (+164.7%), Youyou Foods (+40.9%), and Haoxiangni (+36.2%) [4][16] Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with China's GDP growth at 5.2% in Q2 2025, slightly down from Q1 [5][49] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, indicating a slight recovery, but traditional consumption sectors still face pressure [5][49] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in consumer spending in the second half of 2025 [5][49] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage sector's revenue growth in Q2 2025 was 5.6%, a slight improvement from Q1, but profits declined by 2.1% [6][49] - The report notes a significant decline in the revenue growth of the liquor sector, particularly due to the impact of alcohol bans [6][49] - New consumption trends are emerging, with snack and health product segments showing resilience and growth potential [6][49] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the liquor sector is beginning to show signs of recovery, with potential for valuation improvement as the market stabilizes [7] - It recommends focusing on leading companies in the sector, particularly those with strong growth prospects in new consumption categories [7] - Specific companies to watch include Wancheng Group, Xiamen International Trade, and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to benefit from emerging trends [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 133 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.42%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.15 million yuan, a decrease of 85.85% year-on-year. The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 41 million yuan, 54 million yuan, and 72 million yuan respectively [2][4] - The company is making progress in the research and development of new products, specifically Low-α ray spherical alumina, and is gradually releasing production capacity from newly established production lines, which is expected to drive future performance growth [2][4] Financial Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 13.21%, down 12.87 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased depreciation costs as investment projects transitioned to fixed assets [4] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 4.094 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 3.286 billion yuan [2] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.39 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.69 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 100.3, 76.5, and 56.5 [2][6] Industry Outlook - The global consumer electronics market is expected to reach 1.046 trillion USD in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 15.4% from 2024 to 2029. The Chinese consumer electronics market is anticipated to grow at a rate higher than the global average, reaching 268 billion USD in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The agriculture sector's profit growth in H1 2025 is driven by the recovery of the breeding chain, with a significant increase in both revenue and net profit compared to the previous year [3][15] - The overall revenue for the agriculture sector reached 569.91 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.28%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 193.46% to 25.794 billion yuan [15][12] - The recovery in breeding profitability is attributed to a rapid decline in pig farming costs and an increase in the output of leading listed pig companies [15][4] Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - The agriculture sector's revenue and profit both showed year-on-year growth in H1 2025, with a revenue of 569.91 billion yuan and a net profit of 25.794 billion yuan [15][12] - The sector's gross profit margin improved to 12.49%, up by 5.52 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin reached 4.00%, an increase of 5.24 percentage points [15][16] Subsector Analysis - The breeding chain's profitability has recovered, with all subsectors except for fisheries showing revenue growth. Key growth rates include animal health (+24.85%), pet food (+24.25%), livestock farming (+14.92%), and feed (+11.60%) [4][22] - The pig farming sector achieved a revenue of 226.618 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.96%, with net profit soaring by 1234.37% to 16.601 billion yuan [5][24] - Poultry farming saw revenues of 24.942 billion yuan, up 5.15%, and net profits increased by 70.70% to 1.178 billion yuan despite low chicken prices [41][42] - The feed sector reported revenues of 95.147 billion yuan, a growth of 11.25%, with net profits rising by 61.26% to 3.144 billion yuan [6][52] - The animal health sector's revenue reached 6.398 billion yuan, growing by 20.54%, with net profits increasing by 34.08% to 740 million yuan [61][66] - The seed sector faced challenges, with revenues declining by 10.60% to 5.122 billion yuan and net profits dropping significantly [72][73] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for the agriculture sector improved, with the breeding sector's gross margin at 13.33%, net margin at 5.63%, and ROE at 5.56% [29][30] - The poultry sector's gross margin was 12.61%, with net margin at 2.99% and ROE at 3.36%, reflecting improvements in profitability metrics [42][47] - The feed sector's average gross margin was 10.09%, with net margin at 1.98% and ROE at 3.59%, indicating a positive trend in profitability [52][58] - The animal health sector's average gross margin was 53.49%, with net margin at 15.88% and ROE at 2.60%, showing strong profitability [66][67]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD may be seen as a "catch-up" due to a weaker dollar environment, with the RMB appreciating by approximately 2.3% compared to a 10% depreciation of the dollar index in the first eight months of 2025 [5][6][7] - The domestic equity market's recovery and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve are key triggers for the recent rise in the RMB exchange rate, despite weaker manufacturing PMI data [6][8] - The RMB is expected to continue appreciating, but short-term fluctuations may occur due to uncertainties in global economic policies, particularly in Japan [8][9] Group 2: ETF Market Dynamics - Since June, non-broad-based ETFs have seen rapid growth, with net inflows reaching 227.9 billion RMB, indicating a shift in retail investor preferences towards ETFs [11][12] - Broad-based ETFs have experienced significant net redemptions, suggesting that while overall ETF inflows may appear modest, retail funds are actively entering the market through non-broad-based ETFs [12][13] - The current bull market is characterized by a shift from actively managed funds to ETFs, driven by factors such as product variety, cost efficiency, and ease of access [13][14] Group 3: Power Equipment and New Energy Sector - The photovoltaic industry is facing severe overcapacity, with nominal production capacity exceeding 1200 GW, leading to significant price declines across the supply chain [18][19] - Recent government initiatives aim to curb internal competition and stabilize the market, with signs of price recovery in the polysilicon segment [19][20] - Despite ongoing losses in the main supply chain, specialized companies are performing better than integrated firms, indicating a potential for recovery as supply-demand dynamics improve [20][21] Group 4: Chemical Industry Performance - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector reported a revenue of 4.46359 trillion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, but profits fell by 9% to 181.46 billion RMB [23][24] - The basic chemical industry achieved a revenue of 1.1707 trillion RMB in H1 2025, with a profit of 73.17 billion RMB, reflecting a 3.5% revenue increase year-on-year [24][25] - The petrochemical sector, excluding major state-owned enterprises, saw a revenue decline of 7.3% in H1 2025, indicating challenges in profitability [25][26] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - Sunshine Nuohuo (688621.SH) reported a revenue of 590 million RMB in H1 2025, a 4.87% increase, with a significant Q2 performance showing a 15.73% year-on-year growth [28][29] - The company is advancing its innovative drug pipeline, with multiple projects in clinical trials, indicating a strong growth trajectory [29][30] - Haofan Bio (301393.SZ) achieved a revenue of 270 million RMB in H1 2025, reflecting a 20.10% increase, driven by strong demand for GLP-1 drugs [32][33] Group 6: Food and Beverage Sector Insights - Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) reported a revenue of 23.96 billion RMB in H1 2025, a 5.4% increase, but faced pressure on profit margins due to changing consumer preferences [40][41] - Wuliangye (000858.SZ) achieved a revenue of 52.77 billion RMB in H1 2025, a 4.2% increase, but is navigating challenges in maintaining price stability amid competitive pressures [45][46]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to experience revenue growth driven by capacity expansion, with a projected revenue increase of 8.93% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [1] - Despite a decrease in net profit by 38.20% year-on-year, the company maintains a positive outlook due to anticipated capacity release and market demand [1][2] - The company is focusing on enhancing its market share in CPP products and optimizing profit margins through various strategies [2] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 234 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.93% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 13.36 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 38.20% [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 115 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.03% year-on-year and a 3.91% decline quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025 to 42 million yuan from the previous estimate of 54 million yuan, while maintaining forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [1] Capacity Expansion and Future Growth - The company is making steady progress on its fundraising projects, with the construction of a facility for producing 50,000 tons of high-performance composite materials nearing completion [3] - The new projects are expected to significantly increase the production capacity of modified plastics, addressing previous capacity constraints and meeting strong downstream demand [3] - The company plans to add 45,000 tons of modified PP and 5,000 tons of modified ABS capacity, which will enhance its competitive position in the market [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 144 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.05%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 24.44 million yuan, up 10.15% year-on-year. The gross profit margin stands at 30.07% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the production ramp-up of new projects in the smart home appliance and new energy vehicle sectors, as well as the collaboration with Turing Robotics to explore new growth areas [1] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 520 million yuan, 630 million yuan, and 730 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.64 yuan, 0.78 yuan, and 0.90 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 50.8, 42.0, and 36.5 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][5] - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 2.29 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.2%, and a net profit of 390 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 12.2% [5][8] Automotive Wiring Harness Market - In H1 2025, China's automotive production and sales reached 15.62 million and 15.65 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 11.4%. The new energy vehicle segment saw production and sales of 6.97 million and 6.94 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [2] - The company has successfully introduced multiple new automotive wiring harness products, marking its deep penetration into the intelligent electrification of vehicles [2] Commercial Logistics Vehicles and Data Centers - The company has achieved large-scale delivery of battery pack wiring harnesses for commercial logistics vehicles and has completed technical breakthroughs in several emerging fields, including domestic air suspension wiring harnesses and data center cooling system wiring harnesses [3] - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed with Turing Robotics to advance the development of key subsystems for next-generation embodied intelligent humanoid robots [3]