北交所策略专题报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 2025 北交所券商执业全景：特色券商优势巩固，头部券商逐渐跃居前列 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 专题：2025 年格局重塑：头部券商成为执业主力军，特色券商优势巩固 2026 年 1 月 30 日北京证券交易所、全国股转公司根据对证券公司 2025 年的执 业质量情况进行了评价。2025 年度，115 家证券公司中，14 家证券公司子公司 纳入其母公司合并评价，由高到低分别被评为一、二、三、四档，其中，一档占 比 19.80%；二档占比 39.60%；三档占比 19.80%；四档占比 20.79%。从一档券 商变化来看，北交所市场券商执业格局"大洗牌"，头部券商逐渐跃居前列。2025 年排名前十名分别为国泰海通、华泰证券、招商证券、申万宏源、中信证券、国 金证券、东吴证券、开源证券、中信建投、平安证券，其中华泰证券、中信证券、 平安证券分别由 2024 年的第二档跃升为第一档。从专业质量总分变化来看，头 部券商进步明显。2025 年排名前五名分别为 ...

Group 1 - The report outlines the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry (2026-2030)", which sets a roadmap for the future development of the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) industry, emphasizing the promotion of national medicines and famous products [3][12][13] - The core goal by 2030 is to establish a collaborative system across the entire industry chain, enhance the supply of raw materials, and significantly improve the levels of digitalization and greening [3][13] - Specific quantitative targets include cultivating 60 high-standard raw material bases, establishing 5 innovation centers, and constructing 20 smart factories and 10 green factories [3][13][14] Group 2 - The market size for TCM products is projected to reach approximately 506.1 billion yuan in 2025, with the market for TCM raw materials expected to grow to 220.6 billion yuan [21][24][26] - The planting area for TCM materials is estimated to be around 57 million mu in 2025, indicating a steady growth trend [20][22] - The production of traditional Chinese medicine is expected to decline, with an estimated output of 1.855 million tons in 2025, down from 1.953 million tons in 2024 [28][32] Group 3 - The report identifies five companies related to the TCM industry chain listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange: Zizhong Palace, Datang Pharmaceutical, Oukan Pharmaceutical, New Ganjing, and Biological Valley [29][30] - Among the companies, Jiren Pharmaceutical is highlighted with a projected revenue of 1.23 billion yuan and a net profit of approximately 131.84 million yuan for 2024 [51] - The report notes that 52.38% of the pharmaceutical and biological stocks on the exchange experienced price increases, with TCM stocks showing a weekly increase of 4.29% [4][42]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the integration of the "base film-metalized film-capacitor" industry chain by Shengye Electric through the acquisition of Huajia New Materials, aiming to enhance supply chain security and accelerate the development of new high-end products [2][25][32] - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) has become a preferred venue for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for small and medium-sized enterprises, with 50 significant M&A events reported as of February 8, 2026 [1][20] - The new policies, including the "New National Nine Articles" and "M&A Six Articles," are expected to stimulate the M&A market starting in 2024, focusing on industrial integration and cross-industry mergers [1][9][14] Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The report outlines six core directions from the Beijing Municipal Financial Committee aimed at supporting M&A to promote high-quality development of listed companies, emphasizing market-driven approaches and government guidance [14][15] - The M&A landscape is evolving with increased flexibility in payment methods, financing channels, and pricing mechanisms, encouraging diverse transaction designs and cross-border M&A [9][10] - The BSE is positioned to support innovative small and medium enterprises, particularly in advanced manufacturing and modern services, facilitating traditional industry upgrades and fostering new economic growth drivers [17][18] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Shengye Electric plans to acquire a 51.02% stake in Huajia New Materials for approximately 112.24 million yuan, which is expected to significantly enhance its control over the supply of metalized polypropylene films, a key component in capacitor production [2][25][34] - Huajia New Materials, a high-tech enterprise, reported revenues of 200 million yuan and a net profit of 20.89 million yuan in 2024, indicating strong financial performance and market position [34][32] - The acquisition is anticipated to create synergies by integrating upstream resources and enhancing the technological capabilities of Shengye Electric in the capacitor manufacturing sector [32][33]

商贸零售 行 业 研 究 2026 年 02 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《功效护肤品牌 HBN 母公司护家科 技递表港交所—行业周报》-2026.2.1 《老铺黄金 SKP 活动开启，关注春节 销售超预期催化 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.1.25 《2025 年社零同比+3.7%，海南封关 首 月 表 现 亮 眼 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.1.19 行业关键词：霸王茶姬、琳朝珠宝、阿嬷手作、壹网壹创、千问等 【霸王茶姬】霸王茶姬开设首家泰国旗舰店。 【琳朝珠宝】琳朝珠宝全国第二家门店落子南京德基广场。 【阿嬷手作】阿嬷手作跨界试水餐饮，推出高端广西风味螺蛳粉。 【壹网壹创】壹网壹创拟并购 AI 营销公司。 【千问】千问 APP 上线 AI 请奶茶活动引爆流量。 板块行情回顾 本周（2 月 2 日-2 月 6 日），商贸零售和社会服务指数分别报收 2426.99 点/9285.47 点，分别下跌 0.34%/上涨 ...

传媒/游戏Ⅱ 完美世界（002624.SZ） 2026 年 02 月 08 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2026/2/6 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 19.57 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 20.35/10.20 | | 总市值(亿元) | 379.65 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 357.69 | | 总股本(亿股) | 19.40 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 18.28 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 146.03 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% 0% 24% 48% 72% 96% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 完美世界 沪深300 相关研究报告 《中报业绩大增，看好新游上线及影 视修复驱动成长 —公司信息更新报 告》-2025.8.27 《预计 2025H1 同比大幅扭亏，关注 《异环》上线进展—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.7.17 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 《异环》三测反响热烈，上线或驱动业绩大幅增长，维持"买入"评级 《异环》是公司基 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: "Risk Preference-Concentration-Turnover" Three-Dimensional Label Classification System - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to classify multi-asset fund advisory products based on three dimensions: risk preference, concentration, and turnover rate, to better understand their risk-return characteristics and performance differentiation[3][32] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Risk Preference**: Classified based on the proportion of income-generating assets and growth assets in the portfolio. If income-generating assets exceed 70%, it is classified as debt-oriented; if growth assets exceed 70%, it is equity-oriented; otherwise, it is balanced[34] - **Concentration**: Measured using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), calculated as $ \sum_{i} w_{i}^{2} $, where $w_{i}$ represents the weight of each asset class. Thresholds are set as follows: HHI > 0.5 is high concentration, HHI < 0.25 is low concentration, and values in between are medium concentration[34] - **Turnover Rate**: Measures the timing adjustment ability of multi-asset fund advisory products at the asset class level. Annualized one-sided turnover rate is used, with thresholds defined as follows: turnover rate > 2 is high turnover, < 1 is low turnover, and values in between are medium turnover[34] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the heterogeneity in multi-asset fund advisory products and provides insights into their risk-return characteristics and strategic differences[3][34] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. "Risk Preference-Concentration-Turnover" Three-Dimensional Label Classification System - **Risk Preference**: - Equity-oriented products: 2025 annualized return 18.5%, 2024 annualized return 10.5%, 2023 annualized return -1.0%[37][39] - Debt-oriented products: 2025 annualized return 7.4%, 2024 annualized return 5.9%, 2023 annualized return 3.9%[37][39] - Balanced products: 2025 annualized return 15.7%, 2024 annualized return 8.8%, 2023 annualized return -4.7%[37][39] - **Concentration**: - Low concentration (HHI < 0.25): 2025 annualized return 17.7%, 2024 annualized return 8.2%, 2023 annualized return 0.4%[37][39] - Medium concentration (0.25 ≤ HHI ≤ 0.5): 2025 annualized return 13.0%, 2024 annualized return 6.9%, 2023 annualized return -4.0%[37][39] - High concentration (HHI > 0.5): 2025 annualized return 7.8%, 2024 annualized return 6.9%, 2023 annualized return 3.9%[37][39] - **Turnover Rate**: - Low turnover (< 1): 2025 annualized return 15.6%, 2024 annualized return 8.8%, 2023 annualized return 1.7%[37][39] - Medium turnover (1 ≤ turnover ≤ 2): 2025 annualized return 10.6%, 2024 annualized return 7.3%, 2023 annualized return 0.5%[37][39] - High turnover (> 2): 2025 annualized return 11.2%, 2024 annualized return 7.6%, 2023 annualized return -5.4%[37][39] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Brinson Attribution Model - **Factor Construction Idea**: The model decomposes the excess return of multi-asset fund advisory products into two components: allocation return and selection return, to evaluate the sources of excess returns[42][46] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Allocation Effect**: Measures the timing and allocation ability of fund managers across major asset classes. The formula is: $$ R_{allocation} = \sum_{i} (w_{i}^{actual} - w_{i}^{benchmark}) \times r_{i}^{asset} $$ where $w_{i}^{actual}$ is the actual weight of asset $i$, $w_{i}^{benchmark}$ is the benchmark weight, and $r_{i}^{asset}$ is the return of asset $i$[42][46] - **Selection Effect**: Reflects the ability to select superior funds within each asset class. The formula is: $$ R_{selection} = R_{excess} - R_{allocation} $$ where $R_{excess}$ is the total excess return relative to the benchmark[42][46] - **Factor Evaluation**: The model provides a clear decomposition of excess returns, helping to identify whether returns are driven by strategic asset allocation or fund selection[42][46] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Brinson Attribution Model - **Equity-Oriented Products**: - Example: "Guotai Global Allocation" achieved 2025 allocation return of 10.5% and selection return of 6.3%[48][49] - Example: "招商海外掘金" achieved 2025 allocation return of -0.8% and selection return of 14.5%[48][49] - **Debt-Oriented Products**: - Example: "嘉实百灵全天候策略" achieved 2025 allocation return of 3.8% and selection return of 0.5%[56][58] - Example: "全球固收+" achieved 2025 allocation return of 2.6% and selection return of 1.3%[56][58] - **Balanced Products**: - Example: "时光旅行者" achieved 2025 allocation return of 15.6% and selection return of -10.3%[65][66] - Example: "绘盈长投计划" achieved 2023 allocation return of 10.1%, providing a strong safety net during a bear market[65][66]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to significantly improve its performance in 2025, with a projected net profit of 7.2-7.6 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [4] - The upcoming game "异环" (Yihuan) has received positive feedback during its third test phase, with over 20 million official reservations and a high rating of 8.9 on TapTap, indicating strong market interest [3] - The company anticipates that the launch of "异环" will drive substantial revenue growth, potentially exceeding the performance of its previous title "幻塔" (Huan Ta) [3] Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of the company is 379.65 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 357.69 billion yuan [1] - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 6.836 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.7% [5] - The projected net profit for 2026 is 2.818 billion yuan, with a significant increase in the net profit margin to 28.0% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.38 yuan in 2025 to 1.45 yuan in 2026 [5] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 66.0% in 2026, up from 59.1% in 2025 [5][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes agricultural modernization with quantifiable goals and actionable measures, focusing on quality, efficiency, and ecological sustainability [3][13] - The pig price is under pressure post-festival due to supply release and demand weakening, with the average price of pigs at 12.06 CNY/kg as of February 6, 2026, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.18 CNY/kg [4][37] - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 0.65 percentage points, with the agricultural index declining by 1.92% during the week of February 2-6, 2026 [6][26] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The agricultural sector index decreased by 1.92%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, indicating a relative underperformance of the agricultural sector [6][26] - Key stocks such as Zhongxing Junye (+12.07%), Boen Group (+5.60%), and Shengnong Development (+4.88%) led the gains in the sector [6][32] Price Tracking - As of February 6, 2026, the average price of pigs was 12.14 CNY/kg, down 1.30% from the previous week, while the average price of piglets increased by 2.00% to 25.54 CNY/kg [37] - The average price of beef was 66.09 CNY/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.09% [47] - Prices for other agricultural products such as grass carp and shrimp saw increases of 1.27% and 2.94%, respectively [49][35] Key News - The Central Government has reinforced comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and promoted dairy consumption through various measures [5][33] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has issued implementation opinions to ensure food security and promote agricultural modernization [34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by multiple factors including policy support, trading dynamics, fundamental improvements, and external catalysts, indicating clear investment value [3][9] - The food and beverage index increased by 4.3% from February 2 to February 6, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 5.6 percentage points, with sub-sectors like liquor, soft drinks, and beer leading the performance [9][11] - The liquor industry is entering a new development cycle, with Guizhou Moutai's market-oriented reforms marking a significant phase, and the pricing system gradually returning to a supply-demand driven model [10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 4.3%, ranking first among 28 sectors, with liquor (+5.3%), soft drinks (+4.7%), and beer (+4.5%) showing relative strength [11][12] - Individual stocks such as Huangtai Liquor, Hai Xin Food, and Ri Chen Co. saw significant gains, while *ST Yedao, *ST Chuntian, and Li Ziyuan experienced declines [11][14] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices are declining, with the price of whole milk powder at $3,614 per ton, down 13.3% year-on-year, and fresh milk prices at 3.04 yuan per kilogram, down 2.9% year-on-year [15][31] - The price of pork is down 20.1% year-on-year, with live pig prices at 12.2 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a broader trend of price adjustments in the sector [21][24] Liquor Industry News - Some distributors of Moutai have sold out their first batch of flying Moutai quotas for March, indicating strong demand during the Spring Festival [36] - The Qingdao Beer production base has commenced operations, aiming to produce high-end products and achieve an annual output value of approximately 1 billion yuan [36] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading liquor stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as elastic stocks like Shede Liquor and benefiting stocks like Jiu Gui Liquor [10] - In the consumer goods sector, three main lines are suggested: the snack sector, dairy products, and the restaurant supply chain, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [10][43]

北交所策略专题报告 从亚马逊 CAPEX 指引看产业链机遇，关注北交所光器件核心环节 北交所研究团队 ——北交所策略专题报告 | 诸海滨（分析师） | 余中天（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhuhaibin@kysec.cn | yuzhongtian@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080007 | 证书编号：S0790525050003 | 亚马逊年报高 CAPEX 彰显设施建设需求，北证、新三板光通信标的预期受益 2025 年度报告显示 2024、2025 年亚马逊现金资本开支达到 777 亿、1283 亿美元， 主要用于科技设施的建设方面以及履约网络的建设。2026 年亚马逊预计两大方 面均会产生增长。现阶段北交所内光通信器件相关的标的共有 5 家，新三板内相 关标的 3 家，包含蘅东光、万源通、凯德石英、则成电子、晶赛科技、云岭光电、 鑫宇科技、宇特光电。蘅东光、万源通、云岭光电等标的预期受益。蘅东光 （920045.BJ）主要业务板块包括无源光纤布线、无源内连光器件及相关配套业 务三大板块。万源通（920060.BJ）光模块 PCB 方向目前配合客户进行了光模 ...