Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low position in terms of valuation and fundamentals, presenting significant layout value. The CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.8%, indicating a mild recovery trend. The policy focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption is becoming clearer, signaling a potential bottoming out of industry demand. The current valuation and policy bottom are resonating, gradually releasing pessimistic expectations and providing a safety margin for investment [7][35] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with resilient demand for consumer goods and a continuous upward trend in the snack sector. The mismatch in the timing of the Spring Festival is anticipated to lead to a concentrated release of stocking demand. The sector is expected to achieve rapid growth in Q1 2026 [7][35] Summary by Sections Fund Positioning - In Q4 2025, the allocation ratio for food and beverage in the overall market funds dropped to a new low of 6.1%, down from 6.4% in Q3 2025. The allocation ratio for active equity funds was 4.0%, slightly down from 4.1% in the previous quarter, indicating a continued reduction in food and beverage allocations by active equity funds [4][13] - The overall number of shares held by funds in the food and beverage sector decreased in Q4 2025, with a general trend of reduced allocation to food and beverage companies. Notably, companies like Yurun Agriculture, Yili, and West Wheat Food saw an increase in market value held by funds, while companies like Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai experienced significant decreases [6][29][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment: first, consider companies like Shede Liquor that have undergone sufficient adjustments and possess high elasticity; second, allocate to industry leaders such as Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have strong performance stability and risk resistance. The Spring Festival stocking is expected to be a core catalyst for the sector's performance [7][34] - Specific investment opportunities are highlighted in three sub-sectors: raw milk/dairy products, the snack sector, and the catering supply chain. Companies such as Wei Long, Gan Yuan Food, Yan Jin Pu Zi, West Wheat Food, and Yili are identified as key investment targets, with beneficiaries including Yurun Agriculture, Mengniu Dairy, Anjixin Food, and Guoquan [7][38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The company has a solid foundation in the rail transit sector, having participated deeply in the localization of high-speed rail supporting products and is a leading provider of one-stop services in the rail transit vehicle supporting field [1][10] - The rail transit industry is entering a new phase of rapid development, with promising prospects for the vehicle supporting market driven by national strategic planning and the demand for new and upgraded rail vehicles [2][32] - The company is positioned as a benchmark in the private sector of the rail transit industry, with its heavy machinery manufacturing segment revitalizing and contributing to sustained performance growth [3][61] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply engaged in the rail transit field for over 30 years, evolving from producing small components for traditional trains to becoming a leading supplier of high-speed rail supporting products [10][11] - Its product range includes safety systems, intelligent control systems, and maintenance support systems, covering a wide array of rail transit needs [11][12] Industry Outlook - The high-speed rail market in China is expected to maintain stable growth, with new line openings and the replacement of older trains driving demand for vehicle supporting products [2][32] - The demand for new high-speed trains is projected to remain above 200 units annually, supported by national planning and the need for upgrades and maintenance of existing fleets [32][34] Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 602 million, 656 million, and 707 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.9, 18.3, and 17.0 [1][4] - Revenue is expected to grow from 3.697 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.413 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.1% [4][19] Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from a one-stop service capability, which enhances its competitive edge in the market by simplifying client management and improving supply chain efficiency [3][45] - It has established stable partnerships with major rail transit manufacturers, ensuring a consistent demand for its products and services [48][50] Innovation and Development - The company is committed to continuous innovation, having developed new products such as the intelligent port wheel grabber, which significantly improves operational efficiency [61][63] - It has a strong focus on digital management and internal control optimization, which enhances operational resilience and quality [54][60]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival in mid-February 2026 is expected to boost demand for leisure food products, as the low performance base in Q1 2026 will catalyze strong performance in the sector. The emphasis on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption by policies will further support this trend. Leading snack companies are expected to benefit from category and channel changes, with net profit margins likely to improve due to their large product strategies and cost advantages [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The leisure food sector is projected to experience a strong performance in Q1 2026 due to the Spring Festival, which is a peak consumption period for food and beverages. The demand for stocking up on products is expected to be released, leading to significant sales growth for snack companies [3] Company Focus - The upcoming IPO of Mingming Hen Mang Group is anticipated to reshape traditional retail with its bulk purchasing model, enhancing operational efficiency and rapid store expansion through a modern franchise system. This positive cycle in its business model is expected to create a strong competitive advantage [4] Recommended Stocks - **Weilong Delicious**: Expected to maintain rapid growth with new flavors in konjac products, and the potential for recovery in noodle products. The overseas market also presents significant opportunities [5] - **Ganyuan Food**: Anticipated recovery from operational difficulties, with positive trends across channels and significant elasticity in Q1 2026 due to the low base from H1 2025 [5] - **Yanjinpuzi**: Strong potential in sesame konjac products, with steady brand enhancement and ongoing expansion of distribution networks, leading to expected stable performance [5] - **Wancheng Group**: The IPO of Mingming Hen Mang is expected to increase market attention, with stable store expansion and potential for profit improvement due to scale effects [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing scarcity of AI cloud infrastructure, as evidenced by Amazon AWS's first price increase in 20 years for its EC2 machine learning capacity blocks, which rose by approximately 15% [4] - NVIDIA's investment of $2 billion in CoreWeave aims to enhance AI computing capacity, further validating the high demand for AI cloud infrastructure [5] - Alibaba's launch of the Qwen3-Max-Thinking model, with over 1 trillion parameters and 36 trillion tokens of pre-training data, positions it as one of the strongest domestic AI models, likely driving demand for AI cloud infrastructure [6] Summary by Sections AI Public Cloud - Beneficiaries include Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu [7] AIDC Data Centers - Recommended stocks: Dawi Technology, New Idea Network Group, Aofei Data, Guanghuan New Network, Runze Technology - Beneficiaries include Century Interconnect, Global Data, Wangsu Science and Technology, Dongyangguang, Dataport, and Kehua Data [7] Computing Power Leasing - Beneficiaries include Hongjing Technology, Xiechuang Data, Capital Online, Runjian Shares, Yunsai Zhili, Zhiwei Intelligent, and Hangjin Technology [7] AIDC Liquid Cooling & Power Supply - Recommended stock: Yingweike - Beneficiaries include Shenling Environment, Yinlun Shares, Tongfei Shares, Gaolan Shares, Zhongheng Electric, Kehua Data, Kete Power, and Weichai Heavy Industry [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [4] Core Views - The company has initiated systematic adjustments in core areas such as products, management, and channels since Q4 2025, alongside a share buyback plan that enhances operational confidence, thereby strengthening the fundamental logic [4] - Due to intensified industry competition, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected net profits of $0.33 million (down $0.05 million), $0.48 million (down $0.07 million), and $0.61 million (down $0.10 million) respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 0.3%, 43.0%, and 27.9% [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $186 million, $249 million, and $311 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.8%, 34.1%, and 24.6% respectively [9] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 18.7, 13.1, and 10.2 times [9] - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 32.0% for 2025 and a net margin of 18.0% [9] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The main brand, If Coconut Water, is performing better than the industry and competitors due to its natural quality and first-mover advantage, expected to continue leading the market in 2026 [5] - The secondary brand, Inno Coco, faced sales pressure but has completed major adjustments and expanded partnerships, with new high-value electrolyte beverage products expected to drive growth in 2026 [5] Strategic Partnerships and Expansion - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed with COFCO's subsidiary, which will enhance the company's domestic market strategy by leveraging COFCO's extensive distribution network, facilitating nationwide product coverage [6] - The establishment of the If brand's China headquarters in Shanghai aims to improve local operations and management efficiency, addressing industry challenges such as price disorder and channel management [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The company has initiated systematic adjustments in core areas such as products, management, and channels since Q4 2025, alongside a share buyback plan that enhances operational confidence. The fundamental logic has been strengthened, although profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards due to increased industry competition. Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at $0.33 billion (-$0.05), $0.48 billion (-$0.07), and $0.61 billion (-$0.10), representing year-on-year growth of 0.3%, 43.0%, and 27.9% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 18.7, 13.1, and 10.2 for the respective years [4] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The coconut water industry is experiencing intensified competition in 2025. The main brand, If Coconut Water, is performing better than the industry and competitors due to its natural quality and first-mover advantage, and is expected to continue leading the market in 2026. The secondary brand, Inno Coco, faced sales pressure throughout the year but has completed major adjustments and expanded partnerships, with new high-value electrolyte beverage products expected to drive growth in 2026, creating a second growth curve for the company [5] Strategic Partnerships - In September 2025, the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with COFCO's subsidiary, COFCO Mingzhuanghui, marking a significant acceleration in its domestic market strategy. This partnership leverages COFCO Mingzhuanghui's extensive network of over one million terminals and diverse channel resources to help the company overcome regional barriers and achieve nationwide product coverage, laying a solid foundation for high growth and regional expansion. Additionally, the collaboration enhances brand image through the endorsement of a state-owned enterprise, improving national exposure and consumer recognition [6] Operational Efficiency - In November 2025, the company established its China headquarters in the Hongqiao International Central Business District through a partnership with Shanghai Xihongqiao Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd. This move will facilitate the building of a core team in Shanghai, including sales, marketing, and channel management personnel, aimed at addressing industry challenges such as channel disorder and price inconsistencies, thereby enhancing localized management and response efficiency [7] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2023A is $87 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.0%. For 2024A, revenue is expected to reach $158 million, reflecting a growth of 80.3%. The estimates for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are $186 million, $249 million, and $311 million respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 17.8%, 34.1%, and 24.6%. The net profit for 2023A is projected at $17 million, with a growth of 0.0%, and is expected to reach $33 million in 2024A, maintaining the same level in 2025E, before increasing to $48 million and $61 million in 2026E and 2027E respectively, with growth rates of 43.0% and 27.9% [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a continued adjustment in sales, with expectations for policy effectiveness and market stabilization [3] - The importance of the real estate industry has been reaffirmed due to a stronger supportive stance from policies, as indicated by multiple articles published in early 2026 [7] - The overall allocation of public funds to the A-share real estate sector has decreased to 0.43% as of Q4 2025, marking a decline of 0.19 percentage points from Q3 2025 [5][14] - The concentration of holdings in the top ten real estate stocks has increased to 80.0%, up by 7.9 percentage points from Q3 2025, indicating a focus on development-related stocks [6][20] Summary by Sections Public Fund Allocation - As of Q4 2025, public funds' allocation to the A-share real estate sector has dropped to 0.43%, with a standard allocation ratio of 1.10%, reflecting a decrease in market confidence [5][14] - The current holding ratio relative to the standard allocation is at 39%, the lowest since 2021 [5][14] Individual Stock Focus - The top ten real estate stocks held by public funds include Beike-W, China Resources Land, and China Overseas Development, with a focus on development-related stocks [6][20] - The concentration of these top holdings indicates a strategic shift towards fewer, more stable investments within the sector [6][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in companies with strong credit ratings and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China and China Overseas Development [22] - It also recommends companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, like China Resources Land and Longfor Group [22] - Additionally, it highlights quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy, such as China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service [22]

2026 年 01 月 26 日 二手房成交量价齐升 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） hening@kysec.cn guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070004 供需：开年建筑开工转暖，工业开工有韧性，需求仍弱 1.建筑开工：开工率季节性位置整体回升。最近两周（1 月 11 日至 1 月 24 日）， 水泥发运率、磨机运转率高于 2025 年同期，石油沥青装置开工率处于同期历史 低位。基建项目水泥直供量同比降幅仍大，房建水泥用量则接近 2025 年同期。 资金方面，2026 开年建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2025 年同期。 2.工业生产端，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化表现较弱。最近两周（1 月 11 日至 1 月 24 日），工业开工出现分化，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化 表现较弱。化工链中 PX 开工率维持历史高位，PTA 开工率处于历史中低位，汽 车钢胎开工率处于同期历史中高位，焦化企业开工率降至历史低位。 3.需求端，建筑需求仍弱，汽车、家电销售仍弱。最近两周(1 月 10 日至 1 月 23 日)，螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需 ...

食品饮料/休闲食品 西麦食品（002956.SZ） 增长根基稳步夯实，利润弹性释放可期 2026 年 01 月 26 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2026/1/26 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 28.60 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 29.78/15.22 | | 总市值(亿元) | 63.85 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 63.84 | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.23 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.23 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 104.66 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 西麦食品 沪深300 相关研究报告 《Q3 收入韧性凸显，业绩表现好于预 期—公司信息更新报告》-2025.10.31 《收入增长势能较好，产品、渠道持 续开拓 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.8.28 线上渠道高增延续，线下新兴渠道拓展较好 2025 年公司线上渠道保持较强增长势能，其中抖音渠道增速较为亮眼，并且在 控费提效策略推动下，渠道盈利能力在逐季 ...

Group 1: Financial Sector Insights - The banking sector is expected to maintain a proactive lending strategy in early 2026, with new loans in January projected to be around 5.2-5.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [16] - Large banks are anticipated to have a strong advantage in expanding their balance sheets due to favorable deposit conditions, with total deposits expected to exceed expectations [17] - The wealth management sector saw a significant increase, with the scale reaching 33.29 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, marking an 11.15% year-on-year growth [22] Group 2: Energy and New Energy Sector - The space photovoltaic sector is entering a new era with silicon-based PERC solar cells being adopted for low-orbit satellites, significantly reducing costs compared to traditional III-V multi-junction solar cells [27] - P-type HJT solar cells are identified as the most suitable technology for space applications due to their superior radiation resistance and lower cost [28] - The market for space-based solar power is expected to expand significantly, driven by initiatives like SpaceX's plan to deploy 100GW of solar energy satellites [29] Group 3: Electronics Sector - Major passive component manufacturers have announced price increases due to rising costs of raw materials, leading to a new upward cycle in the passive components market [32] - The demand for passive components is expected to remain strong, particularly in emerging sectors such as AI servers and electric vehicles, potentially extending the current upcycle [35] - The average price of passive components is projected to rise, driven by inflationary pressures and increased demand from high-end applications [36] Group 4: Agriculture and Livestock Sector - The white feather chicken market is experiencing price support due to supply constraints from overseas breeding disruptions, with prices averaging 7.44 yuan/kg in December 2025 [38] - The yellow feather chicken market is under pressure, with prices declining to 11.77 yuan/kg in December, influenced by seasonal demand and reduced breeding activity [39] - Egg prices are also declining, with a significant number of laying hens expected to be culled, which may provide some support for future prices [40] Group 5: Real Estate and Construction Sector - Jianfa Co. is forecasting a significant decline in net profit for 2025, primarily due to poor performance from subsidiaries and increased impairment losses [43] - The company's supply chain operations remain profitable, with overseas business growth of 37% year-on-year, indicating resilience in certain segments [45] - Real estate sales figures are down, with Jianfa's sales amounting to 1220.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% year-on-year decrease [46]