2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/12/5 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 182.05 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 228.93/168.30 | | 总市值(亿元) | 2,220.94 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 2,220.94 | | 总股本(亿股) | 12.20 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 12.20 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 25.89 | 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 山西汾酒（600809.SH） 节奏张弛有度，竞争优势持续 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 山西汾酒 沪深300 相关研究报告 《整体稳健，结构下移—公司信息更 新报告》-2025.9.3 《业绩符合预期，控制节奏稳健发展 —公司信息更新报告》-2025.5.2 张宇光（分析师） 逄晓娟（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn pangxiaojuan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521060002 市场发展相对健康，业绩表现好于行 ...

食品饮料 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 食品饮料 沪深300 12 月 1 日-12 月 5 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 1.9%，一级子行业排名第 26，跑输 沪深 300 约 3.2pct，子行业中预加工食品（+1.5%）、啤酒（+1.2%）、软饮料（+0.4%） 表现相对领先。茅台近期批价持续下行，散瓶价格已跌至 1550 元/瓶左右，核心 驱动因素为公司四季度发货量增加，同时年底经销商有资金回笼需求，叠加部分 电商平台低价促销，进一步扰动价格体系。短期的批价波动更多是行业供需格局 变化的阶段性体现，并非品牌力的根本性变化，公司积极维护市场价格，着眼长 期发展。短期可关注批价变化以及春节动销情况，长期看其抗周期能力与可持续 价值创造能力显著，适合投资者长期配置。本周山西汾酒召开经销商大会，明确 转向以消费者为中心的经营模式，低度化、年轻化、新零售方向落地节奏清晰， 成为白酒行业存量竞争下的转型标杆。这一变革契合消费场景向"悦己消费"迁 移、年轻群体需求崛起的行 ...

基础化工 基础化工 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 ——化工行业周报 | 金益腾（分析师） | 张晓锋（分析师） | 李思佳（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | zhangxiaofeng@kysec.cn | lisijia@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790522080003 | 证书编号：S0790525070006 | 本周行业观点 1：关注 BOPET 行业反内卷动向，企业报价上行 本周（12 月 1 日-5 日）BOPET 企业让利意愿降低，BOPET 报价上行。根据百川 盈孚数据，截至 12 月 4 日，BOPET 华东市场 12μ普通膜市场主流报价为 7100-7300 元/吨，周均价为 7188.75 元/吨，较上周上涨 58.75 元/吨，涨幅 0.82%。 2025 年以来，BOPET ...

非银金融 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 非银金融 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《监管态度转向积极，看好券商板块 行情—吴清主席在中证协大会的致辞 学习》-2025.12.7 《大国崛起需建设金融强国，券商海 外业务迎发展良机—券商海外业务深 度研究》-2025.11.30 《公募 REITs 试点纳入商业不动产， 险企开门红向好 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.11.30 券商杠杆上限有望松绑，险企调降风险因子释放资金 ——行业周报 lukun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040002 周观点：券商杠杆上限有望松绑，险企调降风险因子释放资金 证监会主席吴清表态积极且超预期，保险投资端松绑政策符合预期。券商和保险 行业业务端景气延续，叠加政策端向好和全年相对滞涨，看好非银板块布局机会。 券商：监管表态积极，行业有望进入"政策宽松期"，杠杆上限提升助力 ROE 12 月 6 日证监会主席吴清在中证协第八次会员大会上致辞，表态积极，核心 ...

行 业 研 究 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 汽车 沪深300 汽车研究团队 邓健全（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090003 赵悦媛（联席首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525100003 赵旭杨（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523090002 傅昌鑫（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090005 徐剑峰（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090004 王镇涛（研究员） 证书编号：S0790124070021 相关研究报告 《特斯拉 FSD V14.2.1 上线，长安汽车 拟 2.25 亿元参与设立机器人公司—行 业周报》-2025.11.30 《小鹏汽车第 100 万台整车下线，广 州车展车企竞逐具身智能新赛道—行 业周报》-2025.11.23 《零跑汽车年度累计销量已超 50 万 台，优必选人形机器人启动批量交付 —行业周报》-2025.11.16 鸿蒙智行尊界 S800 轿车 11 月交付破 2000 台，宇树 科技完成 IP ...

国防军工 国防军工 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 国防军工 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《静待国内及海外军贸订单落地—行 业点评报告》-2025.11.24 《承上启下，内外共振—军工行业 2026 年度投资策略》-2025.11.4 《承上启下，内外共振—军工行业 2026 年度投资策略》-2025.11.3 商业航天催化密集，产业或迎来快速增长拐点 委内瑞拉局势升级，土耳其、印度加大军备投入 11 月 29 日，美国威胁"关闭委领空"。12 月 2 日，美国以"缉毒"为由，在委内瑞 拉附近的加勒比海域部署多艘军舰，并派出多型军机在与委内瑞拉附近的波多黎各 空域进行密集作业。11 月 26 日，土耳其国防企业签署 65 亿美元合同，升级国家综 合多层"星穹"防空系统。11 月 28 日，印度国防部部长表示，国防部将争取在下一财 年预算中实现最高 20%的增幅；并准备向俄罗斯采购价值约 12 亿美元的导弹。 太空算力规划落地、可复用火箭密集试射，商业航天有望迎 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the continuous growth in AI demand, which is expected to enhance the demand for computing power [5][30] - The storage market is anticipated to experience price increases for at least 2-3 more quarters due to supply constraints [40][42] - Huawei's new product launches are expected to impact the supply chain positively, with significant market shares in the domestic smartphone market [43][44] Summary by Sections Internet - The rapid growth of the Qianwen app user base, with a monthly active user count reaching 18.34 million and a growth rate of 149.03% in November 2025 [18][19] - AI applications are primarily focused on programming and entertainment, with programming-related token consumption accounting for 50% [21][23] - The launch of the Doubao AI mobile assistant is expected to drive token usage further [29] Computing - The release of Google's Gemini 3 series is expected to extend the life of scaling laws and create a favorable ecological gain [30] - Data is identified as the core asset and barrier, with significant increases in training data for Gemini 3 compared to its predecessor [30] - Google's infrastructure allows researchers to focus on algorithms rather than technical issues, enhancing productivity [31][32] Storage - The supply of DRAM and NAND Flash is expected to be tight, with predictions of shortages in the first half of 2026 [40][41] - The price of storage contracts is projected to continue rising for at least 2-3 quarters, driven by limited new capacity [42] Electronics - Huawei's market share in the domestic smartphone market was 18.1% in Q2 2025 and 15.2% in Q3 2025, indicating strong performance [43][44] - The launch of new products, including the Mate 80 series and Mate X7, is expected to influence the supply chain positively [43] Tools - The report notes significant fluctuations in interest rate expectations, with a clear mid-term trend towards rate cuts [50][59] - The upcoming IPO of Zhongjian Technology is highlighted as a significant event in the capital market [60]

医药生物 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究报告 《PD-1/VEGF 双抗赛道临床进展迅 速，四款进入注册临床—行业周报》 -2025.11.30 | 余汝意（分析师） | 巢舒然（分析师） | | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | chaoshuran@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523070002 | 证书编号：S0790525110001 | chaoshuran@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525110001 《减肥赛道开启"长效革命"，MNC 加 速 布 局 高 价 值 平 台 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.11.23 《MNC 全面布局 FGF21 靶点，关注 国内投资机会—行业周报》-2025.11.16 必贝特在小核酸领域的差异化布局 ——行业周报 小核酸引领发展新路径，必贝特差异化布局多治疗领域 必贝特是一家以临床价值为导向、专注于创新药自主研发的生 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The humanoid robot sector continues to rebound, entering an upward channel, with the core company index rising by 5.54%, outperforming the broader market [12][11] - Multiple factors contributed to the unexpected strength of the rebound, including prior adjustments in the sector, advancements in Tesla's Optimus robot, and anticipated supportive policies from the U.S. government [4][12] - The year 2026 is projected to be a milestone for humanoid robot mass production, with significant catalysts expected [4][40] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robot Sector Performance - The humanoid robot sector index and leading stocks have shown a continued rebound, with the core company index increasing by 5.54% during the week of December 1 to December 5, 2025 [12][11] - The top five performers included Hengli Hydraulic (+11.53%), Siling Co. (+10.07%), and Wuzhou Xinchun (+9.24%) [12][14] Optimus Robot Development - Tesla's Optimus robot is progressing towards mass production, with recent demonstrations showcasing its running capabilities, achieving speeds of 2.5-3 m/s [5][16] - The U.S. government is expected to introduce supportive policies for the robot industry, which may accelerate development and enhance market confidence [31][33] - The domestic industrialization process is also speeding up, with leading companies preparing for capital market entry [34][38] Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities are identified in the supply chain, including components such as head assemblies, bearings, and structural parts [27][30] - Specific companies recommended for investment include Lens Technology, Minth Group, and Wuzhou Xinchun, among others [6][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological upgrades and supply chain integration to support mass production [27][30]

Group 1: Commonality of Spring Rally - The spring rally signifies the market's early response to economic expectations and policy directions for the coming year, allowing investors to position themselves for the main themes of the year [12][13] - The three core drivers of the spring rally include concentrated policy expectations, seasonal liquidity changes, and the performance vacuum during the earnings reporting period [16][20] - Strong spring rallies typically occur when macroeconomic data significantly exceeds expectations, overall corporate earnings enter an upward trajectory, and monetary policy is notably accommodative [21][20] Group 2: Changes in Funding Ecology Behind the Index Bull Market - The weakening of real estate investment attributes has led to the equity market becoming the new main stage for residents' assets, with a structural migration of funds from real estate to stocks and funds [23][24] - Residents' funds are indirectly entering the market, bringing stable incremental capital, with a shift from high-yield financial products to new categories such as fixed income+, secondary bond funds, and higher-risk bank wealth management products [25][26] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Technology and Cyclical Sectors - The market correction is seen as a temporary pause, with an emphasis on early positioning for the spring rally, focusing on both technology and cyclical sectors as dual drivers [29][30] - Specific sectors showing potential include military industry, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, and power equipment, with core technology blue chips expected to recover [29][30]