银行 2026 年 02 月 11 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2026 年净息差展望：筑底企稳—行 业深度报告》-2026.2.3 《2026 年初银行存贷形势更新与展望 —行业深度报告》-2026.1.26 《规模高增&收益承压，"存款+基金" 成配置主线—理财登 2025 年报解读》 -2026.1.26 信贷轻总量、重结构，"广义存款"未流失 ——2025Q4 央行货币政策执行报告学习 | 刘呈祥（分析师） | 朱晓云（分析师） | | --- | --- | | liuchengxiang@kysec.cn | zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523060002 | 证书编号：S0790524070010 | 2025 年信贷结构优化，新发定价降幅收窄，预计 2026 年量温和、价平稳 2025 年信贷总量保持合理增长，结构进一步优化。全年人民币贷款还原化债影 响后增长 7%左右，其中科技、绿色、普惠分别同比增长 1 ...

银行 2026 年 02 月 11 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2026 年净息差展望：筑底企稳—行 业深度报告》-2026.2.3 《2026 年初银行存贷形势更新与展望 —行业深度报告》-2026.1.26 《规模高增&收益承压，"存款+基金" 成配置主线—理财登 2025 年报解读》 -2026.1.26 信贷轻总量、重结构，"广义存款"未流失 ——2025Q4 央行货币政策执行报告学习 | 刘呈祥（分析师） | 朱晓云（分析师） | | --- | --- | | liuchengxiang@kysec.cn | zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523060002 | 证书编号：S0790524070010 | 2025 年信贷结构优化，新发定价降幅收窄，预计 2026 年量温和、价平稳 2025 年信贷总量保持合理增长，结构进一步优化。全年人民币贷款还原化债影 响后增长 7%左右，其中科技、绿色、普惠分别同比增长 1 ...

Economic Outlook - The report indicates that the economy is expected to stabilize and improve, supported by strong economic fundamentals and new growth drivers, with R&D investment intensity reaching 2.8%, surpassing the OECD average[3] - The CPI for 2025 is projected to remain flat year-on-year, while the PPI has increased for three consecutive months, indicating positive changes in price dynamics[4] Monetary Policy - The central bank is prepared to implement interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, emphasizing the need to manage the timing and intensity of these policies[5] - Structural monetary policies will focus on supporting key areas such as technology, green finance, and elderly care finance, with a continued emphasis on expanding domestic demand and supporting small and micro enterprises[5] Financial Market Dynamics - The report highlights the importance of deepening interest rate marketization reforms to enhance the transmission channels of monetary policy, with a focus on maintaining low financing costs for society[6] - The central bank remains vigilant against potential exchange rate risks, emphasizing a comprehensive approach to stabilize market expectations[6] Liquidity and Financial Stability - The report discusses the limited impact of deposit outflows from households and enterprises on overall financial liquidity, as the total liquidity indicators have shown steady growth[6] - The asset management product growth rate reached its highest level since the implementation of new regulations, driven by a rapid decline in deposit rates post-2024[6] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include economic downturns exceeding expectations and policy execution falling short of anticipated outcomes[7]

2026 年 02 月 10 日 AI 产业链产品出口或将延续强势 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 1.建筑开工：开工率季节性位置整体回升。最近两周（腊月初六到腊月十九），水 泥发运率、磨机运转率处于农历同期历史中高位，石油沥青装置开工率处于农历 同期历史低位。基建项目水泥直供量同比降幅仍大，房建水泥用量则接近 2025 年同期。资金方面，2026 开年建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2025 年农历同期。 2.工业生产端，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化表现较弱。最近两周（腊月 初六到腊月十九），整体工业开工率仍处农历同期历史中高位。化工链中 PX 开 工率维持历史高位，PTA 开工率处于历史中低位，汽车钢胎开工率处于同期历史 中高位，焦化企业开工率降至历史低位。 3.需求端，建筑需求仍弱，家电销售有所回暖。最近两周(腊月初六到腊月十九)， 螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需求处于历史同期低位。乘用车四周滚动销量同比延续 负增，中国轻纺城成交量回升至历史中高位，主要家电销售有所回暖。 商品价格：国内工业品价震荡偏强运行 相关研究报告 《一文看懂日本众议院选举与日债、 日元波动及影响—宏观经济点评》 -2026.2.6 《 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in institutional attention towards sectors such as agriculture, defense, and home appliances, indicating a potential shift in investment focus [4][7] - The report discusses the recent refinancing policies aimed at enhancing support for quality listed companies and improving the flexibility of refinancing mechanisms, particularly for technology innovation enterprises [17][20] - The performance of the "Preferred Gold Stock 30" portfolio has consistently outperformed the market, achieving a 21.9% excess return in 2025 compared to the CSI 500 index [13][14] Institutional Research Overview - Institutional research is crucial for investment decision-making, providing timely and multidimensional insights that complement financial information [6] - Recent trends show a decrease in total institutional research frequency across the A-share market, although certain sectors like machinery, electronics, and power equipment remain highly regarded [7][8] Sector-Specific Insights - The agriculture and aquaculture sectors have seen increased research interest, with a notable rise in the number of institutional surveys [8] - The chemical industry, particularly methionine and vitamin markets, is experiencing price rebounds due to cost support and stable demand, with methionine prices reaching 18.50 CNY/kg [29][31] - The electric equipment and new energy sector, represented by companies like Weimais, is benefiting from steady growth in the domestic electric vehicle market and expanding overseas [37][38] Company-Specific Insights - Jerry Holdings is focusing on international expansion and has been frequently surveyed by institutions, indicating strong market interest [10] - Baidu Group is positioned for a significant transformation in AI commercialization, with expectations for revenue growth driven by its cloud and chip businesses [34][36] - Weimais reported a net profit of 5.57 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 39.2% year-on-year increase, supported by growth in the electric vehicle sector [37][38]

基础化工 2026 年 02 月 10 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 《地产或将复苏，关注化工地产链投 资机会—行业周报》-2026.2.8 《原料价格走高+供需格局改善，本周 对硝基氯化苯、己二酸等价格上行明 显—行业周报》-2026.2.1 《水俣公约等多重因素加快氯碱落后 产能退出，行业有望迎来历史性新变 化—行业点评报告》-2026.1.28 成本支撑、需求稳增，蛋氨酸、VE 价格底部反弹 ——维生素氨基酸行业点评报告 金益腾（分析师） 徐正凤（分析师） jinyiteng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020002 xuzhengfeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070005 蛋氨酸：成本支撑+厂家检修+备货需求，蛋氨酸价格触底反弹 据百川盈孚数据，2026 年 1 月以来工厂趁下游春节备货挺价态度强硬，报价达 到 18.50 元/公斤，期间国内主流工厂给部分客户补单 18.0 元/吨公斤停止此价格 接单。据饲 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the comprehensive measures introduced by the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges to optimize refinancing policies, focusing on enhancing support for quality listed companies and improving the flexibility and convenience of refinancing mechanisms [2][3]. - The new refinancing regulations clarify the principle of "supporting the strong and limiting the weak," simplifying the review process for stable and transparent companies while controlling misleading refinancing and blind cross-industry investments [3][4]. - The report highlights the importance of supporting technology innovation, addressing the financing challenges faced by innovative enterprises, and establishing a refinancing service system tailored to new productive forces [4][5]. Group 2 - The refinancing regulations optimize the review process, allowing companies to disclose previous fundraising usage at the time of application, thus enabling timely submissions to seize market opportunities [5]. - The simplification of application materials and the introduction of a negative list for simplified procedures aim to reduce the burden on companies, enhancing the efficiency of the refinancing process while maintaining regulatory quality [5]. - Overall, the report indicates a shift in the refinancing market from focusing on financing efficiency and scale to prioritizing financing quality and market stability, marking a new phase of high-quality development [3][4].

2026 年 02 月 10 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 优选金股 30 组合的 2025 年度回顾 优选金股 30 组合连续 9 年跑赢中证 500 指数，2025 年超额收益率 21.9%：2017 年以来，优选金股 30 组合年化收益为 23.1%，连续 9 年跑赢中证 500 指数，年 化超额收益为 21%。2025 年组合相对中证 500 指数超额收益为 21.9%，其中 1 月份、10 月份和 11 月份超额收益表现优异。 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 常津铭（研究员） 证书编号：S0790126010044 相关研究报告 《开源量化评论（23）-"金股+"组 合的量化方案 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that Baidu's AI full-stack layout, including cloud services, chips, and Robotaxi, is expected to drive a revaluation of the company's value. Despite short-term pressure on search business, 2026 is anticipated to be a turning point for Baidu's AI commercialization due to the restructuring of C-end applications by the Wenxin large model, increased market share in the MaaS sector, and the successful business model of Apollo Go in cities like Wuhan [4][6][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Baidu Intelligent Cloud - The AI IaaS market is rapidly growing, with the demand side fully embracing AI. The overall cloud computing market in China is projected to reach 828.8 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 34.4% year-on-year [13] - Baidu's intelligent cloud revenue reached 6.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 21%, driven by AI infrastructure and public cloud services [30] 2. Kunlun Chip - Kunlun Chip is positioned as a leader in domestic AI computing power, with plans for a public listing that could enhance valuation. The chip has been deployed in over 100 enterprises, including major banks and state-owned enterprises [31][36] - The report highlights that Kunlun Chip's third-generation products are expected to enter a growth phase in 2026, with significant orders from major clients [31][36] 3. Robotaxi - Baidu's Robotaxi service, "Luo Bo Kuaipao," is leading in coverage and operational fleet size, with a total order volume exceeding 17 million as of October 31, 2025, and a single volume of 3.1 million in Q3 2025, representing a 212% year-on-year growth [6][49] - The report notes that the cost of autonomous driving services is expected to drop below traditional transportation costs by 2026, making it more accessible [44][55] 4. AI Applications and Marketing Services - AI-native marketing is projected to become a second growth curve for Baidu, with AI-driven marketing services generating 2.8 billion yuan in revenue in Q3 2025, a 262% increase year-on-year [58] - The integration of AI into existing applications is expected to enhance user engagement and increase the paid user rate for productivity tools [62]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Baidu's AI full-stack layout, including cloud, chips, and Robotaxi, is expected to drive a revaluation of the company's value. Despite short-term pressure on search business, the company is anticipated to reach a turning point in AI commercialization in 2026 due to the restructuring of C-end applications by the Wenxin large model, increased market share in the MaaS sector, and the successful business model of Apollo Go in cities like Wuhan [4][6][30] - The non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 18.5 billion, 20 billion, and 22.4 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -31.6%, +8.6%, and +12.0%. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 6.4, 7.0, and 7.8 yuan, with the current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 19.6, 18.1, and 16.2 times [4][7] Summary by Sections 1. Baidu Intelligent Cloud - The AI IaaS market is rapidly growing, with the public cloud market expected to reach 621.6 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36.6%. The domestic public cloud IaaS market is projected to grow by 68.2% to 420.1 billion yuan [13][20] - Baidu's intelligent cloud revenue reached 6.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21%. AI infrastructure, platform services, and public cloud revenue contributed 4.2 billion yuan, growing by 33% year-on-year [5][30] 2. Kunlun Chip - Kunlun Chip is positioned as a leader in domestic AI computing power, with plans for a public listing that could enhance valuation. The chip has been deployed in over 100 enterprises, including major banks and state-owned enterprises [31][32] - The company is expected to enter a growth phase in 2026, with significant orders from major clients, including a billion-level procurement order from China Mobile [36] 3. Robotaxi - Baidu's Robotaxi service, "Luo Bo Kua Pao," has achieved significant scale, with 3.1 million orders in Q3 2025, a 212% year-on-year increase. The service operates in 22 cities globally, with a total driving distance exceeding 240 million kilometers [6][49] - The cost of autonomous driving services is projected to fall below traditional transportation costs by 2026, making it more accessible for widespread adoption [44][55] 4. AI Applications and Marketing Services - AI-native marketing is expected to become a second growth curve for Baidu, with revenue from AI marketing services reaching 2.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 262% year-on-year increase [58] - The integration of AI into existing applications is anticipated to enhance user engagement and increase the paid user rate for productivity tools, with significant revenue contributions from platforms like Baidu Wenku and cloud storage services [62]