宏观经济点评 2025 年 12 月 11 日 美联储进一步降息空间或相对有限 宏观研究团队 ——12 月 FOMC 会议点评 何宁（分析师） 潘纬桢（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790122110044 事件：美联储于北京时间 12 月 11 日凌晨 3 点发布 12 月 FOMC 会议声明，宣布 降息 25bp。 声明及发布会要点 1. 美联储在此次会议上宣布再次降息 25bp，降息后利率水平在 3.5%-3.75%区间。 资产负债表政策方面，美联储认为准备金已经降至充足水平，将根据需要启动短 期国债的购买（初期 400 亿美元/月）。 2. 再次降息 25bp，维持就业市场走弱风险上升判断。在声明中，美联储的措辞 同 10 月份相比基本未变，即认为美国经济正在以温和的速度扩张。就业方面， 美联储认为就业增长有所放缓，失业率在 9 月份略有上升，且近期指标也印证了 这一趋势，因此就业下行风险有所上升；通胀方面，仍维持通胀率处于较高水平 的判断。在委员投票中，美联储官员们的分歧更加显性化，除了特朗普新 ...

宏观研究团队 煤炭价格回升对 PPI 环比形成支撑 宏观经济点评 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070004 事件：11 月 CPI 同比 0.7%，预期 0.7%，前值 0.2%；PPI 同比-2.2%，预期-2.0%， 前值-2.1%。 2025 年 12 月 10 日 (1) 核心 CPI 环比连续两个月超季节性。11 月核心 CPI 环比较前值回落 0.3 个百 分点至-0.3%，继 10 月以来连续两个月在季节性以上，从具体分项来看，已公 布的 8 个实物分项中，除衣着外，其他 7 个实物分项均低于季节性，推测拉动 CPI 环比回升的分项主要来自于未公布的实物细分项。(3)服务 CPI 环比再次回 落至季节性下方。11 月服务 CPI 环比低于季节性 0.05 个百分点，再次回落至季 节性下方，在已公布的 8 个分项中，除医疗服务项高于季节性、邮递服务持平 于季节性外，其他 6 个分项均低于季节性。 相关研究报告 《出口平缓回落趋势未发生改变—宏 观经济点评》 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in export growth, with November exports increasing by 5.9% year-on-year, indicating strong resilience in foreign trade [5][7][9] - The construction sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with traditional and new infrastructure projects working in tandem [20][23] - The automotive sector is witnessing significant growth, particularly in modular supply and die-casting businesses, with expectations of continued high profit growth [25][26] Group 1: Export and Trade Insights - November import growth was recorded at 1.9% year-on-year, while exports saw a notable increase of 5.9% year-on-year, marking a recovery from previous declines [5][6] - The trade surplus also improved, with a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, reflecting a robust trade environment [5][6] - The report emphasizes that China's export strength is driven by high cost-performance products, with machinery and high-tech products showing significant growth [8][9] Group 2: Construction Sector Analysis - The construction sector's fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by only 1.5%, indicating a slowdown [20][21] - Major state-owned enterprises in the construction sector reported a revenue decline of 4.4% year-on-year, highlighting the challenges faced due to reduced new contracts and prolonged payment cycles [21][22] - The report suggests focusing on opportunities in overseas construction, urban renewal, digital construction, and power engineering as key growth areas [22][23] Group 3: Automotive Sector Developments - The automotive sector is experiencing rapid growth, with the company transitioning successfully to a modular supplier, expecting significant revenue increases [25][26] - The market for stamping parts is substantial, with a domestic market size of approximately 300 billion, and the company is positioned to capture a larger market share [26][27] - The report anticipates continued high growth in the automotive sector, driven by partnerships with major automotive brands and the expansion of product offerings [27][28] Group 4: Electronics Sector Insights - The electronics sector, particularly in ODM, is set to benefit from the AI wave, with the company positioned as a leader in smartphone ODM with a revenue of 464 billion [29][30] - The report outlines a strategic focus on expanding into new growth areas such as smart glasses and automotive electronics, leveraging AI technology [30][31] - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with projections of 462.08 billion, 546.44 billion, and 663.31 billion for 2025-2027 [29][31]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transformed into a modular supplier, with its die-casting business entering a harvest period. Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with net profits expected to reach 9.32 billion, 13.34 billion, and 16.97 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][61]. - The company has seen rapid revenue growth, from 800 million yuan in 2021 to an estimated 4.2 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a strong upward trajectory in the automotive structural parts sector [5][20]. - The company is positioned to become a leading player in the domestic automotive structural parts market, benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and the acceptance of integrated die-casting technology [6][61]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Founded in 2004, the company has evolved from mold manufacturing to stamping and die-casting, establishing a comprehensive production capability across various automotive components [12]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with significant ownership by its founders, which enhances management stability and operational efficiency [16]. 2. Market Potential - The stamping parts market in China is approximately 300 billion yuan, with a global market size of about 15 trillion yuan, indicating substantial growth opportunities [6]. - The integrated die-casting market is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2022 and reach 100 billion yuan by 2025, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [35]. 3. Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong focus on technology and management, which has led to high profitability levels. Its production strategy is based on demand-driven expansion, ensuring efficient capacity utilization [48]. - The company has established relationships with key clients, including major domestic automotive manufacturers, which are expected to drive future revenue growth [51][55]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 2.6 billion yuan in 2023 to 11.2 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 66.6% from 2020 to 2024 [8][20]. - The company's net profit margin is expected to improve, with net profit projected to reach 1.7 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [8][61].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on "innovation-driven" and "steady growth" strategies within the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a positive investment outlook for the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The North Exchange's pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector comprises 21 companies, all classified as specialized and innovative, with a significant proportion being national and provincial champions [2][16]. - The report emphasizes the potential of innovative drugs, high-end medical devices, and robust generics as key investment areas, highlighting the importance of unique products and market share advantages [3][4]. - The medical device sector has shown the highest market value growth in 2025, with an increase of 130.47%, while traditional Chinese medicine has faced performance challenges [28][32]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The North Exchange's pharmaceutical sector includes five sub-sectors: traditional Chinese medicine, medical devices, medical aesthetics, biological products, and chemical pharmaceuticals [12][24]. - The average market capitalization of the 21 companies in this sector reached 3.643 billion yuan as of December 1, 2025, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 41.97% [21][23]. Sub-sector Analysis - The medical device industry led the market value growth in 2025, with a total market value increase from 6.818 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 15.713 billion yuan by December 1, 2025 [28]. - The chemical pharmaceutical sector also performed well, with notable companies like Deyuan Pharmaceutical showing a revenue increase of 22% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [4][34]. Company Case Studies - **Innovative Drugs**: Norsland's gene therapy drug NL003 is nearing approval, targeting a significant patient population with a new treatment method [4][9]. - **Medical Devices**: Weizhu Zhiyuan focuses on smart orthopedic surgical navigation systems, emphasizing the importance of unique technology and market positioning [4][11]. - **Generics**: Deyuan Pharmaceutical is transitioning from generics to innovative drugs, with a solid historical performance and a focus on diabetes and hypertension treatments [4][34]. Performance Metrics - The report notes that the average PE TTM for the pharmaceutical sector was 32X as of December 1, 2025, with the medical device sector showing a higher valuation at 78X [15][55]. - Companies like Jinbo Biological and Norsland have seen significant stock price increases, with Jinbo's stock rising by 170.68% and Norsland by 113.10% in 2025 [41][42].

事件点评 2025 年 12 月 10 日 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：海关总署公布 2025 年 11 月进出口商品统计快讯，按美元计价，我国进口 同比+1.9%（前值为+1.0%，下同），环比+1.6%(-9.6%)；出口同比+5.9%（-1.1%）， 环比+8.2%（-7.1%）；贸易顺差同比+14.7%（-5.9%），环比+24.0%（-0.4%）。11 月出口同比由负转正。 11 月进出口数据关注点 11 月进出口及贸易顺差同比增速均回升，出口同比+5.9%（-1.1%），环比+8.2% （-7.1%），从出口金额来看，已处于 2021 年以来高位。 1、11 月出口增速如期回升转正 出口增速回升转正，外贸仍具较强韧性 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 11 月进出口数据点评 10 月出口同比为负主要与 2024 年 9、10 月的基数错位有关，同时贸易摩擦也影 响了 10 月出口节奏。中美在吉隆坡会谈及釜山会晤后，贸易协定的 ...

银行 2025 年 12 月 10 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 2025-12 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《大行 ΔEVE 指标测算及承接债券 能力评估—行业深度报告》-2025.12.8 《存款偏离与指标问题对当前司库策 略的影响—行业深度报告》-2025.12.4 《理财投资权益的当下与未来—理财 持仓全景扫描系列（七）》-2025.11.27 测算：BCBS 调整利率冲击幅度对ΔEVE 的影响 ——行业点评报告 投资建议 （1）底仓配置：大型国有银行。受益标的农业银行、工商银行；（2）核心配置： 头部综合龙头。受益标的招商银行、兴业银行，推荐标的中信银行；（3）弹性配 置：受益标的江苏银行、重庆银行、渝农商行。 风险提示：宏观经济增速下行；债市利率大幅调整。 | 刘呈祥（分析师） | 朱晓云（分析师） | | --- | --- | | liuchengxiang@kysec.cn | zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523060002 ...

2025 年 12 月 10 日 其 他 研 究 开源晨会 1210 ——晨会纪要 晨 会 纪 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 吴梦迪（分析师） | | --- | wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 总量视角 【宏观经济】出口平缓回落趋势未发生改变——宏观经济点评-20251208 【宏观经济】提质增效，科技突围——12 月政治局会议学习——宏观经济点评 -20251208 【宏观经济】美联储主席换届交易指南——宏观经济专题-20251208 【策略】机构关注度环比回升：家用电器、建筑材料、计算机——机构调研周跟 踪-20251209 【策略】当春季躁动遇上估值慢牛——投资策略专题-20251208 行业公司 【通信】国内 AIDC 需求或加速回暖——行业点评报告-20251209 【通信】"H200 芯片或放开"下的投资机会梳理——行业点评报告-20251209 开 数据来源：聚源 | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | | | --- | --- | | 行业名称 ...

行 业 研 究 2025 年 12 月 09 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -24% 0% 24% 48% 72% 96% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 2025-12 通信 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《"H200 芯片或放开"下的投资机会 梳理—行业点评报告》-2025.12.9 《"AI+卫星"的共振—行业周报》 -2025.12.7 《字节发布豆包手机助手，重视端侧 AI 投 资 机 遇 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.12.1 国内 AIDC 需求或加速回暖 ——行业点评报告 蒋颖（分析师） 雷星宇（联系人） jiangying@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523120003 leixingyu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124040002 阿里资本开支同比维持高增速，阿里 AIDC 需求或陆续释放 投资建议 （1）AIDC 机房。推荐标的：光环新网、奥飞数据、大位科技、新意网集团、 宝信软件、润泽科技等；受益标的：万国数据、世纪互联、数据港、东阳光等； （2）AIDC 风冷液冷。推荐标的：英维克；受益标的：银轮股份、同飞股 ...

业 研 究 《"AI+卫星"的共振—行业周报》 -2025.12.7 《字节发布豆包手机助手，重视端侧 AI 投 资 机 遇 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.12.1 《谷歌和阿里火出圈，全球 AI 持续共 振—行业周报》-2025.11.30 蒋颖（分析师） 雷星宇（联系人） jiangying@kysec.cn ——行业点评报告 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% 0% 24% 48% 72% 96% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 通信 沪深300 相关研究报告 2025 年 12 月 09 日 "H200 芯片或放开"下的投资机会梳理 leixingyu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124040002 英伟达 H200 芯片有望获对华出口许可，国内 AI 模型发展或将加速 2025 年 12 月 9 日，据央视网、中国基金报消息，美国总统特朗普在"真实社交" 媒体平台发文称，在确保美国国家安全的前提下，将"允许英伟达向中国及其他 国家的合格客户交付其 H200 芯片产品"，Blackwell 芯片以及即将发布的 Rubin 芯片则不在获批 ...