Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that banks are likely to continue the strategy of early loan disbursement for early returns in 2026, with Q1 new loans expected to account for 62%-65% of the annual total [3][15] - In January, new RMB loans are projected to be between 5.2-5.3 trillion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase, with potential acceleration in loan issuance towards the end of the month [4][37] - The overall loan volume for the year is expected to be around 15.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease, but with a stabilization in loan pricing [4][37] Summary by Sections Loans - The loan issuance rhythm for 2026 is anticipated to be front-loaded, although the pace in early January may be slower than expected due to various factors including lower discount rates and a cautious approach from banks [3][24] - The trend of front-loading loan issuance is expected to continue, with Q1 new loans projected to represent a significant portion of the annual total [15][17] Deposits - Large banks are expected to have a strong start in deposit growth, potentially exceeding expectations due to proactive marketing and better retention rates of maturing deposits [5][38] - The liquidity situation for large banks is relatively stable, with a high average daily lending balance of 4.5 trillion yuan in January 2026, indicating manageable funding pressures [38][40] - The competition for deposits among smaller banks is diminishing, as larger banks enhance their marketing efforts and pricing strategies [44][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks and wealth management-oriented joint-stock banks, as they are likely to benefit from the early loan and deposit growth dynamics [7]

行 业 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《企业信贷超季节性增长，信贷投放 前置趋势或延续 —行业点评报告》 -2026.1.16 ——理财登 2025 年报解读 刘呈祥（分析师） 吴文鑫（分析师） liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523060002 wuwenxin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524060002 负债端："存款搬家"叙事逻辑强于债市波动&股市分流 截至 2025 年末，理财规模增至 33.29 万亿元，全年增长 3.34 万亿元，yoy+11.15%。 2025 年"存款搬家"叙事贯穿，逻辑仍强于债市波动、股市分流，规模延续高 增。季节性上，2025 年理财增长总体符合季节性规律，若加回季末回表规模， 理财在 2025 年 12 月或实际达到历史高点 33.7 万亿元左右。预计 2026Q1 理财增 长较为后置，主要由于春节时间较晚（2 月中下旬），加权益市场情绪较热、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that banks are likely to continue the strategy of early loan disbursement for early returns in 2026, with Q1 new loans expected to account for 62%-65% of the annual total [3][15] - In January, new RMB loans are projected to be between 5.2-5.3 trillion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase, with potential acceleration in loan issuance towards the end of the month [4][37] - The overall loan volume for the year is expected to be around 15.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease, but with a stabilization in loan pricing [4][37] - Large banks are experiencing strong deposit growth, exceeding expectations, attributed to proactive pricing strategies and effective marketing efforts [5][38][44] - The stability of deposits is a concern, with potential uncertainties regarding the retention rates of high-interest deposits maturing in 2026 [6][44] Summary by Sections Loans - The loan issuance rhythm for 2026 is anticipated to be front-loaded, although the pace may be slow in early January due to various factors including lower discount rates and a cautious approach from banks [3][24] - The trend of front-loading loan issuance is expected to continue, with Q1 new loans projected to represent a significant portion of the annual total [15][17] Deposits - Large banks are expected to have a strong start in deposit growth, with liquidity remaining ample and net financing from interbank certificates of deposit (NCD) being negative, indicating a healthy deposit environment [5][40] - The competitive advantage of smaller banks in deposit acquisition is diminishing, as larger banks enhance their marketing efforts and pricing strategies [44][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks and wealth management-oriented joint-stock banks due to their advantages in expanding balance sheets and performance certainty [7]

zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 北交所上市"后备军"217 家，分布在高端装备、TMT 等新质生产力行业中 截至 2026 年 1 月 20 日，北交所已有 217 家公司获受理，待上会企业 167 家，覆 盖高端装备（71 家）、TMT（29 家）、化工新材料（35 家）、消费（21 家）、生 物医药（13 家）等多元细分领域。受理和辅导中公司中，包含了一些新质生产 力公司，我们从中首选专精特新、单项冠军企业、"独角兽"企业。同时，我们 也着重关注氢能源、商业航天、低空经济等行业。 后备军筛选系列已 29 期，筛选出一批已经上市的新质生产力公司 北交所策略专题报告 2026 年 01 月 26 日 优中选优，布局营收超 10 亿、利润过亿的成长领军者华晟智能等 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 在 2025 年北交所上市的 26 家公司中，本系列报告我们优选出星图测控、开发科 技、天工股份、广信科技、酉立智能、志高机械、宏远股份、能之光、三协电 机、世昌股份、锦华新材、江天科技等。其余优选公司中已过会公司包括：英氏 控股、雅图高新、金钛股份、新恒泰、原力数 ...

行 业 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《企业信贷超季节性增长，信贷投放 前置趋势或延续 —行业点评报告》 -2026.1.16 《政策支撑稳增长，关注 Q1 银行景气 度修复行情 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.1.16 《2026 钱往何处：理财真净值化时代 的攻守之道—2026 年理财资产配置展 望》-2026.1.8 规模高增&收益承压，"存款+基金"成配置主线 ——理财登 2025 年报解读 刘呈祥（分析师） 吴文鑫（分析师） liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523060002 wuwenxin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524060002 负债端："存款搬家"叙事逻辑强于债市波动&股市分流 截至 2025 年末，理财规模增至 33.29 万亿元，全年增长 3.34 万亿元，yoy+11.15%。 2025 年"存款搬家"叙事贯穿，逻辑仍强于债市波动、股市分流，规 ...

交通运输/物流 建发股份（600153.SH） 全年业绩短暂承压下滑，供应链运营业务稳健盈利 2026 年 01 月 26 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 股价走势图 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 建发股份 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《营收利润同比收缩，回款比例保持 高位—公司信息更新报告》-2025.9.2 《营收规模有所收缩，增强回报保护 股 东 利 益 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.4.17 ——公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | |  | 全年业绩短暂承压下滑，供应链运营业务稳健盈利，维持"买入"评级 | 建发股份发布 2025 年业绩预告，公司预计 2025 年度实现归母净利润为-100 亿元 到-52 亿元，预计实现扣非归母净利润为-65 亿元到-33 亿元，同比转亏。受美凯 龙业 ...

交通运输/物流 建发股份（600153.SH） 全年业绩短暂承压下滑，供应链运营业务稳健盈利 2026 年 01 月 26 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2026/1/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 9.39 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 11.71/8.68 | | 总市值(亿元) | 272.27 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 272.27 | | 总股本(亿股) | 29.00 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 29.00 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 59.21 | 股价走势图 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 建发股份 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《营收利润同比收缩，回款比例保持 高位—公司信息更新报告》-2025.9.2 《营收规模有所收缩，增强回报保护 股 东 利 益 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.4.17 ——公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic silane crosslinking agent and hydroxylamine salt sectors, with a unique "oxime-silane-hydroxylamine salt" green circular industry chain that showcases industry-leading technology [3][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in the new energy vehicle and electronics sectors, with projected net profits of 201 million, 269 million, and 350 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.48, 1.98, and 2.58 yuan per share [3][4]. - The company has successfully developed electronic-grade hydroxylamine water solution, breaking the monopoly of foreign manufacturers and supporting the localization of semiconductor cleaning agents [5][12]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 1.239 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 211 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.2% and 22.3% respectively [4][39]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 27.7% in 2023 to 32.5% in 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 15.5% to 21.7% over the same period [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.48 yuan in 2025, 1.98 yuan in 2026, and 2.58 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 38.6, 28.9, and 22.2 [3][4]. Industry Outlook - The fine chemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with China's fine chemical industry output expected to exceed 11 trillion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 19.17% from 2024 to 2027 [55]. - The demand for silane crosslinking agents is anticipated to expand significantly, driven by applications in construction materials, energy, electronics, and new energy vehicles [61][66]. - The production of functional silanes in China is projected to grow from 46.90 million tons in 2024 to 59.88 million tons by 2028, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 6.30% [65][68].

光伏设备 《光伏反内卷深度：反内卷持续深化， 关 注 贝 塔 修 复 — 行 业 深 度 报 告 》 -2025.9.3 《光伏技术深度系列（一）：BC 盈利 拐点率先而至，"反内卷"时代未来可 期—行业深度报告》-2025.7.28 太空光伏深度报告：光伏向空，志在星海 ——行业深度报告 2026 年 01 月 26 日 | 殷晟路（分析师） | 周航（联系人） | | --- | --- | | yinshenglu@kysec.cn | zhouhang1@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080001 | 证书编号：S0790125050020 | 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% 0% 19% 38% 58% 77% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 光伏设备 沪深300 相关研究报告 《光伏出口退税将全面取消，倒逼行 业高质量发展 —行业点评报告》 -2026.1.11 太空迈入晶硅时代 太空高能宇宙辐射、±150℃极端温差循环、高真空散热受限等极端环境，对光伏 电池的转换效率、寿命及材料结构提出严苛要求。现阶段 III-V 族多结光伏电 ...

电子 2026 年 01 月 26 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 72% 84% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 电子 沪深300 相关研究报告 《台积电计划新建 4座先进封装设施， CPU、存储、封测涨价—行业周报》 -2026.1.25 《重视 CCL 涨价大周期，涨价持续性 得到验证 ——行业点评报告》-2026.1.24 《台积电指引超预期，确立全球 AI 行 业景气度—行业点评报告》-2026.1.19 被动元件：成本端驱动涨价潮，高端需求开启新周期 ——行业点评报告 | 陈蓉芳（分析师） | 张威震（分析师） | 刘琦（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenrongfang@kysec.cn | zhangweizhen@kysec.cn | liuqi1@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790524120002 | 证书编号：S0790525020002 | 证书编号：S0790525020001 | 投资建议 我们认为，本轮被动元件涨价主要由上游金属原 ...