数据来源：聚源 -19% 0% 19% 38% 58% 77% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究报告 《科创板 IPO 边际宽松，利好券商投 行 、 直 投 业 务 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.6.18 非银金融 2025 年 06 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 非银金融 行业走势图 《关注陆家嘴金融论坛表态，港交所 受益于金融开放 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.15 《5 月新开户数延续增长，非银持续受 益于基准回补—行业周报》-2025.6.8 重视功能性，优化指标加分项，券商马太效应延续 ——券商分类评价新规点评 高超（分析师） 卢崑（分析师） gaochao1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520050001 lukun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040002 券商分类评价规定更新，重视功能性导向，完善制度框架 （1）监管导向重视功能性：新规明确"引导证券公司更好发挥功能作用，提升 专业能力"（第一条），根据服务实体经济和国家战略成效考察功能发挥状况，将 评价框架从传统的"风险管理+合规状况+业务 ...

建筑材料 2025 年 06 月 22 日 房地产市场边际改善，关注建材投资机会 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《城市更新政策落实到位，关注建材 投资机会—行业周报》-2025.6.15 《城市更新释放消费潜力，关注建材 投资机会—行业点评报告》-2025.6.9 《二手房价格降幅同比收窄，关注建 材投资机会—行业周报》-2025.5.25 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 房地产市场边际改善，关注建材投资机会 今年以来，房地产政策继续保持宽松基调，中央与地方层面协同发力。5 月份房地 产市场总体基本平稳，分化继续加剧，部分指标边际改善，房价延续调整态势，但 呈现出"环比下降、同比降幅收窄"的复杂特征，国家统计局数据显示，各线城市 商品住宅和二手住宅的销售价格均为环比下降但同比降幅收窄态势。一线城市房价 相对坚挺，商品住宅和二手住宅房价同比降幅最低。房地产库存呈现缓慢下降趋 ...

医药生物 2025 年 06 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究报告 《SYS6010:广谱抗肿瘤大品种，早期 NSCLC 数据优异 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.15 《管线布局迈入收获期，2025 开启国 产流感新药元年—行业深度报告》 -2025.6.15 《关注 Protac 自免赛道积极进展—行 业周报》-2025.6.8 关注高质量减重赛道近期积极进展 ——行业周报 | 余汝意（分析师） | 余克清（分析师） | | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | yukeqing@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523070002 | 证书编号：S0790525010002 | |  关注高质量减重赛道近期积极进展 | | 近期再生元和 Scholar Rock 公司先后公布了保留肌肉/增肌管线（myostatin 通路） 的 2 期临床试验数据，我们认为有效性和安全性结果证实了初步的概念验证。再 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The supply contraction has reached a point that supports the rise in pig prices, with the average price of live pigs in China at 14.19 CNY/kg as of June 19, 2025, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.18 CNY/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 4.05% [4][14] - The pet food sector is experiencing strong performance, particularly during the 618 shopping festival, with leading domestic brands achieving significant sales [6][22] - The investment logic for live pigs is improving marginally, driven by both fundamental and policy factors, with recommendations for companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wen's Foodstuffs, and others [6][30] Summary by Sections Supply and Price Trends - The supply gap in live pigs is expected to provide strong support for prices in June and Q3 2025, with forecasts indicating a continued upward shift in price levels [4][14] - The average weight of pigs being sold is 128.28 kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.54 kg but a year-on-year increase of 2.29 kg [5][17] Pet Food Market - In May 2025, China's pet food export value was 127 million USD, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.39% but a month-on-month increase of 12.81% [6][22] - The average export price of pet food was 4.40 USD/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.43% and a month-on-month increase of 8.69% [6][22] Market Performance - From June 13 to June 20, 2025, the agricultural index underperformed the broader market by 2.63 percentage points, with the agricultural index declining by 3.13% [7][33] - Notable stock performances included Bangji Technology (+24.71%), Xuelong Biological (+7.81%), and ST Jinggu (+3.77%) [7][33] Price Tracking - As of June 20, 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.22 CNY/kg, up 0.20 CNY/kg from the previous week, while the price of piglets was 31.85 CNY/kg, down 1.04 CNY/kg [8][45] - The price of corn futures was 2407.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.56% [41][55]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The approval of the first two data center REITs in China is expected to facilitate the expansion of the AIDC sector, providing a good monetization channel for mature projects and improving financing pressure [4][13] - The policy to support game companies in applying AI is likely to boost the demand for AIDC computing power, enhancing R&D efficiency in the gaming industry [5][16] - Marvell has raised its 2028 data center market size forecast to $94 billion, reflecting a 26% increase from previous estimates, driven by rapid growth in AI infrastructure [6][18] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Insights - The first two data center REITs approved in China are expected to enhance AIDC expansion [4][13] - The policy to reward game companies for AI applications may stimulate AIDC computing power demand [5][16] - Marvell's updated forecast for the data center market indicates a significant growth trajectory, with a projected CAGR of 20% from 2025 to 2028 [6][18] - Investment recommendations focus on seven key industry directions, including AIDC facility construction and AI applications [20][21] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of April 2025, the total number of 5G base stations in China reached 4.439 million, with a net increase of 188,000 stations since the end of 2024 [30] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.081 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 21.6% [30] - 5G mobile phone shipments in April 2025 were 19.889 million units, accounting for 79.4% of total shipments, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [30] 3. Operator Performance - The three major operators reported strong growth in cloud computing revenues, with China Mobile's cloud revenue reaching 100.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [44] - The ARPU values for the three major operators remained stable, with China Mobile at 48.5 yuan, China Telecom at 45.6 yuan, and China Unicom at 44.0 yuan [44][48]

Group 1: Consumer Goods Replacement Policy - The consumer goods replacement policy has driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from the automotive, consumer electronics, and home appliance sectors [2][12][14] - As of May 31, 2025, the policy has issued approximately 175 million direct subsidies to consumers, with 4.12 million applications for automotive replacements and 49.86 million consumers purchasing 12 categories of home appliances [14][15] - The automotive industry within the North Exchange has 24 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 62.202 billion yuan as of June 20, 2025 [16][18] Group 2: Industry Performance - The five major industries in the North Exchange experienced an average decline in stock prices, with high-end equipment down 3.96%, information technology down 3.90%, and consumer services down 5.29% [3][25] - The TTM median price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the high-end equipment sector decreased to 42.1X, while the information technology sector's median PE ratio fell to 88.2X [26][27] - The technology new industry saw a median PE ratio drop from 54.0X to 52.2X, with a total market capitalization decrease from 462.735 billion to 443.944 billion yuan [40][43] Group 3: Specific Company Highlights - Fengguang Precision has achieved mass production capability for humanoid robot harmonic reducers, with a planned capacity of 300,000 sets by the end of 2024 [5] - In the automotive sector, companies like Yisheng Precision and Lintai New Materials saw significant stock price increases of 25.21% and 17.86%, respectively [56] - In the consumer electronics sector, Tian Gong Co. and Zecheng Electronics are notable players, with market capitalizations of 13.079 billion and 4.538 billion yuan, respectively [21][23] Group 4: Market Trends - The overall market trend indicates a shift towards consumer goods replacement, with the policy effectively stimulating consumption and driving industry transformation [14][15] - The automotive and consumer electronics sectors are expected to benefit significantly from ongoing government support and consumer demand [2][12] - The decline in PE ratios across various sectors suggests a potential reevaluation of company valuations in the current market environment [40][42]

2025 年 06 月 21 日 策略研究团队 箱体震荡的突破契机，及当下的配置思路 ——投资策略周报 韦冀星（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 5 月以来 A 股窄幅震荡的原因和未来突破箱体的可能催化 科技思路：关注自主可控+军工：AI+、机器人、半导体、信创、军工（导弹、无人 机、卫星）。 红利思路：基于需求尚未出现拐点，关注稳定型红利（即银行、公共事业）。 黄金：黄金和军工成为大变局下两大长期战略配置资产。我们认为 3 季度初将会是 下一个最佳的黄金配置时点，原因是 4 大要素的合击：一是美国 10 万亿国债到期； 二是中美谈判将进入深水区；三是美国降息预期的恶化到了极限；四是中国央行购 金速度或将恢复。 风险提示：宏观政策超预期变动加快复苏进程；全球流动性及地缘政治恶化风险； 前瞻指标的使用基于历史数据，不能代表未来。 自 5 月至今，上证指数已经在 3300-3400 的区间内窄幅波动接近 2 个月的时间，宽 基指数的波动率非常低。我们在 5 月 5 日发布的中期策略展望当中便强调过造成本 次窄幅波动的 DDM 背景：（1）上有顶：盈利尚在磨底— ...

证书编号：S0790524110002 事件：5 月，全国一般公共预算收入 16007 亿元，全国一般公共预算支出 19372 亿元。政府性基金预算收入 2897 亿元，政府性基金预算支出 5989 亿元。 财政收支增速放缓，支出加大科技民生投入 1、5 月公共财政收入增速放缓。5 月狭义财政收入 16007 亿元，同比增长 0.13%， 增速较前值下滑 1.76 个百分点。1-5 月公共财政收入累计同比下滑 0.3%，降幅 基本持平前值。从结构看，税收收入增长遇阻，非税收入增速继续走低。5 月税 收收入降速，同比增长 0.6%（前值 1.9%），截至 5 月税收较去年累计下降 1.6%， 与全年+3.7%的目标仍有差距。非税收入增速由正转负，同比下滑 2.2%（前值为 +1.7%），相比税收收入，非税收入降幅相对更大。主要税种中个人所得税、增 值税保持高增，消费税和企业所得税基本持平去年。个税和企业所得税之间出现 分化，个税收入同比增长 12%、企业所得税基本为零增长。个税收入高增或与 2024 年基数持续偏低、征税范围扩大有关。企业所得税增速延续回落，部分外 贸企业营收仍受对等关税影响。国内增值税同比增长 ...

2025 年 6 月 20 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 张 翔（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520110001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790121070009 苏 良（分析师） 证书编号：S0790121070008 何申昊（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524070009 陈 威（研究员） 证书编号：S0790123070027 蒋 韬（研究员） 证书编号：S0790123070037 相关研究报告 《 芯 片 板 块 的 资 金 行 为 监 测 》 -2024.12.28 《 机 器 人 板 块 的 资 金 行 为 监 测 》 -2025.01.24 《 农 业 板 块 的 资 金 行 为 监 测 》 -2025.04.13 《 军 工 板 块 的 资 ...

行 业 研 究 2025 年 06 月 20 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 通信 沪深300 相关研究报告 《字节多模态模型加速，Oracle 大投 AI，看好全球 AIDC 产业链—行业周 报》-2025.6.15 《字节 Force 原动力大会亮点：豆包大 模型 1.6 发布、多模态模型升级、 Tokens 加速增长、多行业落地—行业 点评报告》-2025.6.11 《博通 TH6 交换芯片量产上市，持续 看好 AI 算力产业链—行业周报》 -2025.6.8 政策奖励游戏企业应用 AI，或提升 AIDC 算力需求 我们认为，伴随 AI 大模型的加速迭代，推理性能不断强化，推理成本持续优化， AIGC 技术的实用性逐步提升，有望加速 AI 在如教育、代码、游戏等行业的应 用落地，伴随用户使用量提升逐步释放推理算力需求。此外，随着 AI+视频通话、 AI+在线游戏竞技等对低延时需求应用持续落地，或将带动一线热点城市的 AIDC 资源及边缘算力资源需求，并持续拉动国产 A ...