2025 年 06 月 26 日 开源晨会 0626 ——晨会纪要 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 非银金融 | 4.458 | | 国防军工 | 3.364 | | 计算机 | 2.985 | | 电力设备 | 1.656 | | 商贸零售 | 1.567 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 煤炭 | -0.999 | | 石油石化 | -0.572 | | 交通运输 | -0.207 | | 美容护理 | 0.177 | | 食品饮料 | 0.254 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【金融工程】深度学习赋能技术分析——开源量化评论（109）-20250625 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 沪深300 创业板指 我们深度论证了在使用深度学习挖 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant improvement in market data for the second quarter of 2025, with brokerage firms experiencing a year-on-year increase in trading volume and new account openings [4] - The report anticipates a continued high growth rate for listed brokerage firms' mid-year reports, projecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 50% [4] - The report emphasizes the favorable policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market and boosting the economy, which are expected to benefit the brokerage sector [5] - The report identifies three main investment themes within the brokerage sector: undervalued leading brokers with strong retail business, high beta financial technology stocks, and brokers benefiting from the expansion and activity of the Hong Kong IPO market [6] Summary by Sections Market Data Improvement - In Q2 2025, the average daily stock trading volume reached 12.5 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 48% [4] - The number of new accounts opened from January to May 2025 was 10.95 million, up 30% year-on-year [4] - The margin trading scale as of June 24 was 1.82 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 22% [4] Investment Banking and IPOs - The IPO scale from January to June 2025 was 37.1 billion, with 50 projects, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14% [4] - The report notes a significant increase in IPO activity in Q2 2025, with a scale of 23.6 billion and 30 projects, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 75% [4] Policy Environment - The report discusses the "1+6" policy measures introduced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which are expected to facilitate IPOs for unprofitable companies [5] - The report mentions a joint guideline from the central bank and other departments aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the economy [5] Valuation and Fund Allocation - The report indicates that public funds are significantly underweight in the non-bank financial sector, with a notable need for reallocation [6] - As of June 25, the brokerage sector's price-to-book (PB) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios were 1.44 and 20.75, respectively, indicating that valuations remain low [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform" [3][5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 540 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.89% [5] - The company has begun trial production of its 30,000 tons/year THF production line, with a current load of 70% as of mid-May 2025 [6] - The expansion of the benzyl alcohol production line is ongoing, with 61% of the project completed by the end of 2024 [6] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company is projected to generate a revenue of 540 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -3.45 million yuan [5][8] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.19 yuan, 0.39 yuan, and 0.53 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 86.0, 42.2, and 30.9 [5][8] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 17.5%, with a net margin of -0.6% [11] Production and Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its THF production capacity and has also initiated projects related to mercury-free PVC catalysts and NMN [6] - The fine chemical segment is projected to achieve a revenue of 501 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 14.55% [5] Research and Development - The company has completed the industrial verification of a mercury-free ionic liquid catalyst for VCM synthesis and is in discussions with downstream PVC customers [6] - Ongoing research includes small molecule heparin and enzyme-based solutions, with significant progress in the development of NMN products [6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: LSTMtech - **Model Construction Idea**: Directly use LSTM to extract factors from stock price data and technical indicators without incorporating financial data[13][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Input layer includes stock price data (open, high, low, close, volume) and technical indicators generated using the `talib` library[15] 2. Training process uses a rolling window: 6 years for training, 2 years for validation, updated annually[15] 3. Factor performance metrics: RankIC of 7.42%, RankICIR of 4.25, annualized return of 24.02% for 10 long-short groups[15] 2. Model Name: LSTMdeap_tech - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine effective factors extracted by genetic algorithms with original technical indicators, then use LSTM for further factor mining[3][24][26] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Genetic algorithm is applied to original technical indicators to extract effective factors using a sample period from 2010 to 2016[24] 2. Effective factors are combined with original technical indicators and input into the LSTM framework[26] 3. Factor performance metrics: RankIC of 9.27%, RankICIR of 4.54, annualized return of 32.44% for 10 long-short groups[26] 3. Model Name: LSTMgraph - **Model Construction Idea**: Use LSTM to extract factors based on manually defined graphical states of stock price patterns and technical indicators[32][41] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Graphical states are manually defined based on K-line patterns and technical indicator positions (e.g., relative positions of moving averages)[33] 2. States are input into the LSTM framework for training, including synthesized K-line patterns from 1 to 20 days[41] 3. Factor performance metrics: RankIC of 9.01%, RankICIR of 4.70, annualized return of 32.25% for 10 long-short groups[41][44] 4. Model Name: LSTMdeap_tech_graph - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine LSTMdeap_tech and LSTMgraph factors equally to enhance performance[5][47][49] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Combine LSTMdeap_tech and LSTMgraph factors with equal weights[47] 2. Factor performance metrics: RankIC of 10.89%, RankICIR of 4.99, annualized return of 37.28% for 10 long-short groups[49] 5. Model Name: LSTMpro_combined - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine LSTMdeap_tech_graph with a factor derived from broader data sources (e.g., minute-level aggregated daily indicators, financial data)[6][54] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Combine LSTMdeap_tech_graph with the broader factor using equal weights[54] 2. Factor performance metrics: RankIC of 11.93%, annualized return of 39.85% for 10 long-short groups[54] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. LSTMtech - RankIC: 7.42% - RankICIR: 4.25 - Annualized return (10 long-short groups): 24.02%[15] 2. LSTMdeap_tech - RankIC: 9.27% - RankICIR: 4.54 - Annualized return (10 long-short groups): 32.44%[26] 3. LSTMgraph - RankIC: 9.01% - RankICIR: 4.70 - Annualized return (10 long-short groups): 32.25%[41][44] 4. LSTMdeap_tech_graph - RankIC: 10.89% - RankICIR: 4.99 - Annualized return (10 long-short groups): 37.28%[49] 5. LSTMpro_combined - RankIC: 11.93% - Annualized return (10 long-short groups): 39.85%[54] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Tech_K_similarity - **Factor Construction Idea**: Manually define graphical states and calculate historical similarity to derive future returns[33][35] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define states based on K-line patterns and technical indicators (e.g., MACD, volume)[33] 2. Identify historical periods with similar states and calculate average excess returns over the next 20 days[35] 3. Factor performance metrics: RankIC of 5.10%, RankICIR of 3.09, annualized return of 19.25% for 10 long-short groups[39] 2. Factor Name: Tech_similarity_combined - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combine Tech_K_similarity with a similar factor derived from technical indicators[40] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Combine Tech_K_similarity and the technical indicator-based factor equally[40] 2. Factor performance metrics: RankIC of 5.89%, RankICIR of 3.25, annualized return of 25.97% for 10 long-short groups[40][43] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Tech_K_similarity - RankIC: 5.10% - RankICIR: 3.09 - Annualized return (10 long-short groups): 19.25%[39] 2. Tech_similarity_combined - RankIC: 5.89% - RankICIR: 3.25 - Annualized return (10 long-short groups): 25.97%[40][43]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company completed two national research projects, leading to a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, which grew by 245% year-on-year [3] - The company reported a revenue of 60.91 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.47%, while the net profit reached 5.66 million yuan, marking a 244.81% increase [3] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, the company is optimistic about future growth opportunities driven by its R&D capabilities and the commercialization of 5G-A technology [3] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 233 million yuan, down 13.93% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12 million yuan, down 62.90% year-on-year [3] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 19 million yuan, 33 million yuan, and 49 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.14, 0.23, and 0.35 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 165.3, 96.4, and 64.6 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] R&D and Market Activities - In 2024, the company participated in 22 market activities, including major conferences like MWC and the Global 6G Development Conference [4] - The company invested 103.86 million yuan in R&D in 2024, accounting for 44.63% of its revenue, and has been actively pursuing overseas intellectual property strategies [5] - The company has applied for a total of 512 patents, with 68.75% being invention patents, and has successfully obtained 300 authorized patents [5]

Group 1 - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents [1] - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that the company is a leading semiconductor third-party testing enterprise in China, often referred to as the "chip general hospital" [1][9] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% in revenue and 43% in net profit from 2021 to 2024, with a market share of 7.86% in failure analysis and material analysis in 2023 [1][13][35] Group 2 - The semiconductor third-party testing industry is experiencing growth driven by rapid technological iterations, domestic industrialization, and increased process tolerance requirements [2][33] - The market for third-party laboratory testing is expected to reach 180-200 billion yuan in China by 2027, with a global market size projected to reach 6.677 billion USD [35][36] - The industry is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, but leading companies are expected to benefit significantly from the growth in demand and the deepening of the Labless model [2][40] Group 3 - The company has a strong technical capability, covering advanced process testing down to 3nm, and serves over 2,000 global clients, including major semiconductor firms like Qualcomm and Broadcom [3][9] - The company focuses on high-margin services such as failure analysis (FA) and material analysis (MA), which accounted for 97.09% of its revenue in the first half of 2024 [10][44] - The company maintains a high gross margin of 46.86% in 2024, supported by a robust revenue structure and effective cost management [13][24]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The report suggests that by September 2024, the economy may be at a dual inflection point, transitioning from active deleveraging to an L-shaped economic phase, similar to the 2016-2017 period [5][14] - It is anticipated that by the second half of 2025, social financing and economic stability will be maintained, with GDP growth expected to remain above 5%, which is better than the market's expectation of a significant decline [5][15] - Current asset prices reflect a consensus expectation that if the economy does not significantly decline in the second half of the year, market sentiment may shift towards a belief that the economy has bottomed out [5][15] Group 2: Industry Insights - The low-altitude economy is experiencing vertical implementation from macro (national industrial planning) to micro (infrastructure bidding and application scenario development), with recommended stocks including Wolong Electric Drive and Green Energy Huichong [6][19] - The H-acid industry is facing potential supply tightness due to the need for rectification at the leading producer, Inner Mongolia Yadong, which may impact its production capacity [7][24] - H-acid prices have increased by 16% from 36,000 CNY/ton to 41,700 CNY/ton since the beginning of the year, with active dye prices also rising by 15% [7][25] Group 3: Company Updates - Dingjie Smart, a leading provider of digital transformation and smart manufacturing solutions, is expected to benefit from downstream recovery and overseas opportunities, with projected net profits of 201 million, 240 million, and 289 million CNY for 2025-2027 [8][29] - The company hosted the 2025 Digital Future Summit, showcasing AI-driven innovations and solutions aimed at enhancing business productivity [8][30] - AI commercialization has shown initial success, with a 135.07% year-on-year growth in AI business revenue in Taiwan, indicating strong potential for future growth [8][32]

2025 年 06 月 24 日 下半年资产配置展望——"不下、则上" 固定收益研究团队 ——固收专题 固 收 专 相关研究报告 《央行重启买债的可能性—固收专 题》-2025.6.7 《资产、债务增速双降，城投整合效 果显著—固收专题》-2025.6.6 《经济略为偏弱，转债波动率历史低 位—固收专题》-2025.6.2 陈曦（分析师） 刘伟（分析师） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 liuwei1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070008 当前资产价格反映出的一致预期：未来经济不确定性高 对于当前资产价格走势，基本呈现出"对于未来经济的不确定性"。 对于债券资产，债市提前定价"下半年宽货币加码"，收益率曲线明显平坦化。 且债市资金以看多为主，处于持仓待涨之中。 对于权益资产，股市呈现出明显的高性价比，一方面相较于国内的存款、债券收 益率，股息率偏高；另一方面相较于海外股市，国内股市估值偏低。 资产价格一致预期，或来源于历史经验 2021 年以来，经济的节奏呈现为"经济压力、政策托底、经济压力"。 当经济处于政策托底阶段，预期经济企稳回升的投资者会增 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the power equipment industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in the electric vehicle market, with significant growth in sales and technological advancements in solid-state batteries [3] - The low-altitude economy is experiencing substantial development, with multiple collaborations and projects being initiated to enhance infrastructure and operational capabilities [17][18] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Review - The low-altitude economy sector has shown a recent average decline of 2.3% in stock prices, with notable gains from companies like Shanhe Intelligent (+6.4%) and Jifeng Technology (+6.0) [11][12] - EHang Intelligent has secured a significant order for 41 EH216-S units, aimed at applications such as low-altitude sightseeing and urban emergency response [29] Section 2: Industry Dynamics - A framework cooperation agreement was signed between Xiaopeng Huitian and three companies in Shandong, focusing on low-altitude and cultural tourism integration [21] - WoFei ChangKong has partnered with Dongfang Hope Group to accelerate urban air traffic operations and eVTOL infrastructure development [22] - The Beijing Yanqing District is soliciting opinions on measures to promote high-quality development in the low-altitude technology industry [24] Section 3: Company Developments - EHang Intelligent has made significant progress by signing a memorandum of understanding with ANRA Technologies for integrating airspace management systems [30] - The company also established a partnership with Argentina's FAdeA to facilitate the certification and local production of eVTOL systems in Latin America [31] - SuJiaoKe has launched a low-altitude AI comprehensive inspection platform to enhance operational efficiency in drone inspections [32] Section 4: Infrastructure Initiatives - Wuhan has inaugurated its first low-altitude logistics hub, featuring a digital dispatch platform and multiple low-altitude routes [27] - The establishment of the headquarters for China FAW's flying car project in Shenzhen marks a significant step in the low-altitude economy [26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][14] Core Views - The company is a leading provider of digital transformation and smart manufacturing solutions in China, expected to benefit from downstream recovery and overseas opportunities, with AI opening up growth potential [4][7] - The company hosted the 2025 Digital Future Summit, focusing on AI-driven business innovation and productivity enhancement [5] - AI commercialization has begun to show results, with a 135.07% year-on-year increase in AI business revenue in Taiwan in 2024, and the introduction of AI-integrated products enhancing customer value [7] Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 201 million, 240 million, and 289 million yuan respectively, with EPS projected at 0.74, 0.88, and 1.07 yuan per share [4][9] - Revenue is expected to grow from 2,228 million yuan in 2023 to 3,581 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.6% [9][11] - The company's gross margin is projected to stabilize around 60% from 2025 onwards, with net profit margin improving to 8.2% by 2027 [9][11] Product and Innovation - The company launched an AI infrastructure suite to assist enterprises in finding effective AI applications, showcasing its capabilities in integrating AI across various operational scenarios [6] - The introduction of AI-driven software solutions, including ERP and PLM systems, demonstrates the company's commitment to enhancing its product offerings through AI [6][7]