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机构调研周跟踪:机构关注度环比回升:家用电器、建筑材料、计算机
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-09 07:15
Group 1 - The report indicates a rebound in institutional research focus on home appliances, building materials, and computers, with an increase in the number of research sessions compared to the previous week [2][12][19] - In the weekly perspective, the total number of research sessions for the entire A-share market decreased to 482, lower than 542 in the same period of 2024, indicating a continued decline in research heat [12][20] - Monthly data shows that in November, the total number of research sessions for the entire A-share market reached 2969, which is lower than 3286 in the same period of 2024, but reflects a rebound compared to previous months [20][21] Group 2 - From an individual stock perspective, companies such as Dazhu Laser, Jereh, and Fule New Materials received significant market attention, with Dazhu Laser being researched 4 times in the last week [25][28] - Over the past month, companies like Oke Yi, Huichuan Technology, and Ice Wheel Environment have also garnered considerable attention, with Oke Yi being researched 28 times [29][30] - Zhongyou Technology, focusing on intelligent logistics systems, has seen a remarkable performance with a revenue growth of 36.69% and a net profit growth of 1074.35% in the first three quarters of 2025, leading to increased institutional interest [27]
宏观经济专题:美联储主席换届交易指南
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-08 15:24
2025 年 12 月 08 日 美联储主席换届交易指南 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁(分析师) 潘纬桢(分析师) hening@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790522110002 panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790524040006 美联储的运行机制与货币政策的实施 1. 美联储系统包含 3 大关键实体机构,FOMC 是制定货币政策的核心。美联储 系统共包含 3 大关键实体机构(美联储理事会、12 家地方联储银行、联邦公开 市场委员会),并履行 5 大关键职能(执行美国的货币政策、促进金融体系的稳 定、 促进金融机构的安全与稳健、促进美元支付与结算体系的安全及效率、促 进消费者保护与社区发展),主要目标则是充分就业和物价稳定(双重使命)。 2. FOMC 人员构成多元,货币政策变动决策需经投票。拥有 FOMC 投票权的成 员共有 12 位,包括美联储理事会的 7 位理事、纽约联储行长、4 位轮值投票的 地方联储行长,每年会举行 8 次定期会议,货币政策变动决策均需经过投票。 特朗普有望对美联储领导层施加更大影响力 1. 目前美联储理事会人员构成有利于特朗普施加更大影响 ...
宏观经济点评:12月政治局会议学习:提质增效,科技突围
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-08 15:22
宏观经济点评 提质增效,科技突围——12 月政治局会议学习 ——宏观经济点评 | | | shenmeichen@kysec.cn hening@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790522110002 证书编号:S0790524110002 事件:中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议,分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 1.形势判断:会议对"十四五"成就满意,综合国力有所提升。短期看,会议指出"(2025 年)经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现",指向全年大概率完成 5%的经济发展目标。 中期看,会议对"十四五"成果满意,指出"我国经济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、 制度、外交等软实力明显提升,'十四五'即将圆满收官,第二个百年奋斗目标新征 程实现良好开局"。 相关研究报告 《推动基础设施 REITs 扩围—宏观周 报》-2025.12.7 《通向供需新均衡—2026 年宏观展 望》-2025.12.2 《工业生产与需求边际走弱—宏观经 济专题》-2025.12.1 2.经济目标:经济工作稳中求进、提质增效,预计 2026 年经济目标可能略低于 5%, 对总量增长有一定容忍度,重点是结构调整和科技突破。会议指出 ...
开源晨会-20251208
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-08 15:21
2025 年 12 月 09 日 开源晨会 1209 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源:聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | 4.794 | | 综合 | 3.031 | | 电子 | 2.600 | | 非银金融 | 1.904 | | 计算机 | 1.492 | 数据来源:聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 煤炭 | -1.433 | | 石油石化 | -0.839 | | 食品饮料 | -0.775 | | 公用事业 | -0.421 | | 钢铁 | -0.271 | 数据来源:聚源 吴梦迪(分析师) wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】推动基础设施 REITs 扩围——宏观周报-20251207 行业公司 【中小盘】商业航天催化不断,可复用火箭迎来大发展——中小盘 ...
投资策略专题:当春季躁动遇上估值慢牛
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-08 14:41
Group 1 - The report indicates that the upcoming spring rally is likely to occur earlier than usual due to significant adjustments in November and a late Spring Festival, suggesting a favorable environment for early positioning in December [1][25][39] - Historical data shows that growth-type spring rallies account for nearly 60% of past spring market trends, driven primarily by liquidity easing and technology policy expectations [2][55] - The cyclical spring rally, while less frequent, still holds strong predictive value, with approximately 40% of past rallies characterized by inventory replenishment and inflation expectations [2][60] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that both technology and cyclical sectors can thrive simultaneously, suggesting a dual-driven approach to investment strategies [4][48] - Key sectors for investment include technology (military, media, AI applications) and cyclical industries (solar, chemicals, steel), which are expected to benefit from improving PPI and anti-involution policies [4][60] - The report highlights that the spring rally is not confined to the spring season, as it can be influenced by macroeconomic expectations, liquidity improvements, and institutional behavior [25][34] Group 3 - The report outlines that the spring rally typically features a strong focus on high beta stocks, with significant sector rotation reflecting the market's anticipation of economic trends and policy directions [49][55] - It notes that the performance of growth stocks is particularly sensitive to liquidity conditions and technology policy, making them prime candidates for investment during the spring rally [56][59] - The cyclical rally is characterized by a recovery in resource prices and manufacturing sectors, driven by inventory replenishment and improving economic conditions [60]
诺思兰德(920047):北交所信息更新:NL005IIc期临床试验已完成CDE沟通,即将全面启动
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-08 06:47
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [3] Core Insights - The company is set to officially launch the Phase IIc clinical trial for its self-developed recombinant human thymosin β4 (NL005) for the treatment of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) following successful communication with the CDE [4][5] - The company anticipates revenue growth from 0.89 billion yuan in 2025 to 6.11 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits projected to shift from a loss of 440 million yuan in 2025 to a profit of 730 million yuan in 2027 [4][7] - The company has established a significant partnership with a well-known domestic ophthalmology company to promote the localization of its balanced salt solution, enhancing its market presence in the ophthalmic medical sector [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 0.89 billion yuan, 2.71 billion yuan, and 6.11 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of -440 million yuan, -20 million yuan, and 730 million yuan [4][7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 55.8% in 2025 to 71.5% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to turn positive by 2027 [7][10] - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 78.8 in 2025 to 11.5 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation as revenues grow [4][7]
大行ΔEVE指标测算及承接债券能力评估
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-08 05:46
《存款偏离与指标问题对当前司库策 略的影响—行业深度报告》-2025.12.4 《理财投资权益的当下与未来—理财 持仓全景扫描系列(七)》-2025.11.27 《存款非银化增长,波动率加大—行 业点评报告》-2025.11.19 大行 ΔEVE 指标测算及承接债券能力评估 ——行业深度报告 | 刘呈祥(分析师) | 朱晓云(分析师) | | --- | --- | | liuchengxiang@kysec.cn | zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号:S0790523060002 | 证书编号:S0790524070010 | 行 业 研 究 2025 年 12 月 08 日 投资评级:看好(维持) 行业走势图 数据来源:聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 据的偏离度,2025H1 及往年我们模型测算数据用该偏离度进行修正,调整后数 值作为(ΔEVE/一级资本净额)的最终测算值。 测算:承接地方债对大行指标影响&现阶段大行地方债承接空间 1、根据上市银行 2025H1 数据静态测算,上 ...
行业投资策略:光伏拐点已现,储能大势所趋
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-08 05:46
电力设备 2025 年 12 月 08 日 光伏拐点已现,储能大势所趋 ——行业投资策略 投资评级:看好(维持) 行业走势图 数据来源:聚源 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究报告 《动储需求旺盛,产业链供需拐点已 至—锂电行业 2026 年度投资策略》 -2025.12.1 《欧洲电动车销量月报(2025 年 10 月):法国社会租赁计划落地后 BEV 销量同比明显提速—行业点评报告》 -2025.11.24 《低空经济行业周报(第四十一期): 进博会上多项低空经济订单签约,时 的科技总部落户上海—行业周报》 -2025.11.9 殷晟路(分析师) 周航(联系人) yinshenglu@kysec.cn zhouhang1@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790125050020 光伏拐点已现:反内卷持续推进,关注底部反转 当前光伏行业反内卷已取得一定积极成效,Q3 主链上游环节预计显著减亏。后 续重点关注供需两条主线: (1)供给侧:硅料收储平台落地及产业链限产措施。 (2)需求侧:关注"十五五"光伏装机 ...
巨化股份(600160):公司信息更新报告:超预期实施前三季度分红强化股东回报,HFCs制冷剂价格
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-08 03:43
股价走势图 数据来源:聚源 -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 2025-12 巨化股份 沪深300 基础化工/化学制品 巨化股份(600160.SH) 超预期实施前三季度分红强化股东回报,HFCs 制冷剂价格 2025 年 12 月 08 日 上行趋势不变,公司分红有望持续提升 投资评级:买入(维持) 日期 2025/12/5 当前股价(元) 33.99 一年最高最低(元) 41.95/21.23 总市值(亿元) 917.64 流通市值(亿元) 917.64 总股本(亿股) 27.00 流通股本(亿股) 27.00 近 3 个月换手率(%) 68.38 相关研究报告 《Q3 业绩增幅创年内新高,新业态认 知逐步形成,当下确定性、弹性空间 兼具,主升持续进行中—公司信息更 新报告》-2025.10.24 《2025Q2 业绩大幅创历史新高,新业 态认知逐步形成,全面布局氟化液系 列产品,主升持续进行中—公司信息 更新报告》-2025.8.28 《2025Q2 业绩或大幅创历史新高,全 新商业模式逐步形成—公司信息更新 报告》-2025.7.10 金 ...
行业周报:聚焦豆包AI进展及游戏、电影上新-20251207
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-07 14:56
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing development and commercialization of AI applications, particularly in gaming and film sectors, as key areas for investment [3][4] - The upcoming release of major films like "Avatar 3" and new games is expected to drive market recovery and growth [4] Industry Overview - The media sector is experiencing a significant shift with AI applications becoming increasingly integrated into advertising, gaming, and film production [3] - The gaming industry is entering a peak season with new game launches expected to boost revenue significantly [3][4] Industry Data Summary - As of December 6, 2025, "Delta Force" ranks first in the iOS free game chart, while "Honor of Kings" leads the iOS revenue chart [10][14] - "Zootopia 2" has achieved a cumulative box office of over 3 billion yuan, ranking among the top 30 in domestic box office history [4][5] - The report highlights the stability of the top ranks in the WeChat mini-game market, with "Treasure Hunter" and "Endless Winter" leading the charts [30]