Workflow
icon
Search documents
开源量化评论(121):港股CCASS优选20组合的年度回顾及最新持仓
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2026-02-13 06:43
- The "Hong Kong CCASS Preferred 20 Portfolio" was constructed using a two-step screening method: "select brokers first, then select stocks"[3][4] - The first step involves selecting top-performing brokers by standardizing and equally weighting their excess Sharpe ratio and monthly win rate, then selecting the top 10 brokers[4][16] - The second step involves equally distributing funds to the 10 selected brokers, aggregating their latest holdings, and retaining the top 20 stocks by weight for equal allocation[5][17] - The portfolio has shown significant outperformance over the Hang Seng Index, with an annualized excess return rate of 19.3% and an excess Sharpe ratio of 2.45 over the period from 2020 to 2025[3][12][15] - The portfolio demonstrated defensive characteristics during market adjustments, achieving a positive return of 2.05% from October 8, 2025, to December 31, 2025, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 4.47% and the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 15.32%[3][12] - The latest holdings of the portfolio as of February 2026 include a low valuation and high dividend yield configuration, with the banking and non-bank financial sectors accounting for about 45%, the energy sector about 10%, and the technology and internet sectors about 20%[6][19][22] Portfolio Performance Metrics - Annualized return: 19.3%[15] - Annualized volatility: 7.9%[15] - Sharpe ratio: 2.45[15] - Maximum drawdown: -7.6%[15] - Monthly win rate: 75.3%[15]
三协电机:布局减速机赋能机器人产业,3D打印高景气赛道驱动2025年营收同比+31%-20260213
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2026-02-13 02:45
北交所信息更新 北 交 所 研 究 三协电机(920100.BJ) 布局减速机赋能机器人产业,3D 打印高景气赛道驱动 2025 年营收同比+31% 预计 2025 年实现营收 5.51 亿元(+31.11%),归母净利润 0.60 亿元(+6.83%) 公司发布 2025 年业绩快报,预计 2025 年实现营收 5.51 亿元,同比增长 31.11%; 归母净利润 6018.39 万元,同比增长 6.83%。根据业绩快报数据,我们小幅下调 2025 年盈利预测,维持 2026 年和 2027 年盈利预测,我们预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 0.60(原 0.63)/0.77/1.06亿元,对应 EPS分别为 0.82/1.05/1.43 元/股,对应当前股价 PE 分别为 79.3/61.6/45.2 倍,我们看好公司布局减速机形 成电机+减速器整体解决方案,机器人+光伏支架+3D 打印高景气度赛道打开未 来增长空间,维持"增持"评级。 光伏跟踪支架+3D 打印高景气赛道,驱动公司营收稳步增长 2025 年公司营收同比增长 31.11%,主要为公司在 3D 打印领域和工业自动化领 域的业务 ...
开源证券晨会纪要-20260212
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2026-02-12 15:30
Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The US job market shows strong resilience in the short term, with January non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000, exceeding market expectations of 65,000 [5][6] - The unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, lower than anticipated, while average hourly earnings grew by 3.7% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [5][6] - Labor force participation rate rose to approximately 62.5%, indicating a recovery in the labor market, although permanent unemployment rates have increased [7] Group 2: Inflation and Price Trends - January CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, below the expected 0.4%, primarily due to the high base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival [11][24] - PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, but the month-on-month increase of 0.4% marks a new high since 2024, indicating a potential upward trend in prices [15][25] - The report predicts that if PPI can maintain a month-on-month increase of 0.15-0.2%, CPI could rise to 2% year-on-year, impacting bond yields positively [26] Group 3: Liquid Cooling Industry Insights - The liquid cooling industry is entering a high-growth phase, with significant order increases reported by key players like Vertiv, which saw organic orders surge by 252% year-on-year [20][44] - Major tech companies, including NVIDIA and Google, are adopting liquid cooling as a standard for their next-generation platforms, indicating a shift from optional to mandatory technology [20][44] - The liquid cooling supply chain is being activated through mergers and expansions, with companies like Linyang Technology acquiring liquid cooling suppliers to enhance their market position [20][21] Group 4: Home Appliance Sector Analysis - Longxin General (隆鑫通用) is positioned as a leading player in the motorcycle and all-terrain vehicle market, with a strategic focus on product innovation and global expansion [50][51] - The company has seen significant growth in its premium motorcycle series, with revenue from the "无极" series increasing from 14.3% in 2020 to 30.5% in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 62.98% [52] - Longxin's partnership with Zongshen is expected to enhance its competitive edge through improved technology and supply chain management [51]
星辰科技:商业航天与风电装机双引擎加速,2025归母净利润预增超105%——北交所信息更新-20260213
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2026-02-12 13:25
北交所信息更新 商业航天与风电装机双引擎加速,2025 归母净利润预增超 105% ——北交所信息更新 2026 年 02 月 12 日 投资评级:增持(维持) | 日期 | 2026/2/12 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 23.77 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 31.77/11.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 40.60 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 21.04 | | 总股本(亿股) | 1.71 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 0.89 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 664.96 | 北交所研究团队 诸海滨(分析师) 余中天(分析师) zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790522080007 yuzhongtian@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790525050003 2025 预计实现归母净利润 3300~3500 万元,维持"增持"评级 星辰科技发布 2025 全年业绩预告,预计实现归母净利润为 3300~3500 万元,较 2024 年的 1,607.43 万元增长 105.30%~117.74%,实现盈利且净利润同比增幅超 过 50 ...
颖泰生物:农药“反内卷”与海外补库助“走出泥泞”,亏损收窄迎破局-20260213
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2026-02-12 13:25
北交所信息更新 农药"反内卷"与海外补库助 "走出泥泞",亏损收窄迎破局 颖泰生物(920819.BJ) ——北交所信息更新 2026 年 02 月 12 日 投资评级:增持(维持) | 日期 | 2026/2/12 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 3.91 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 5.09/3.31 | | 总市值(亿元) | 47.93 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 47.37 | | 总股本(亿股) | 12.26 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 12.12 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 49.23 | 北交所研究团队 诸海滨(分析师) zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790522080007 初步核算公司 2025 年归母净利润为-2.50 亿元,同比减亏 57.45% 公司发布 2025 年业绩快报,经过初步核算,公司 2025 年营收为 55.31 亿元,同 比下降 2.27%,归母净利润为-2.50 亿元,同比减亏 57.45%。2025 年农药行业呈 局部回暖、分化复苏态势,公司聚焦产品与基地布局,严格管控成本费用,持续 推进组织优化与 ...
通信行业点评报告:维谛指引乐观,液冷趋势再强化
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2026-02-12 13:10
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the optimistic outlook for the liquid cooling industry, driven by strong performance and order growth from key players like维谛, AWS, and Google Cloud [4][5][6][7] - The report emphasizes the significant growth in organic orders and backlog for维谛, indicating a robust demand for liquid cooling solutions [4] - Major cloud service providers, including AWS and Google Cloud, have reported revenue growth exceeding expectations, with substantial increases in capital expenditures, suggesting a positive trend for the AI computing power supply chain [5][6] Summary by Sections 维谛 Performance - In Q4 2025, 维谛's sales reached $2.88 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 23.2%, exceeding expectations [4] - The company experienced a 252% year-over-year growth in organic orders and a backlog increase to $15 billion, up 109% [4] - For 2026, 维谛 projects sales between $13.25 billion and $13.75 billion, with an organic growth rate of 28% and an EPS range of $5.97 to $6.07, reflecting a 43% year-over-year increase [4] AWS and Google Cloud Insights - AWS reported Q4 2025 net sales of $35.58 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase, with capital expenditures of $38.5 billion, up 48% [5] - Google Cloud's Q4 2025 revenue reached $17.7 billion, a 48% increase, with capital expenditures of $27.9 billion, up 95% [5] - Both companies are expected to continue significant capital investments in 2026, indicating strong growth prospects in the cloud computing sector [5] Meta and Microsoft Performance - Meta's Q4 2025 revenue was $59.893 billion, a 24% increase, with capital expenditures of $22.14 billion [6] - Microsoft's FY2026 Q2 revenue was $81.273 billion, a 17% increase, with the intelligent cloud segment growing by 26% [6] - Both companies are also increasing their capital expenditures significantly, reflecting confidence in future growth [6]
颖泰生物(920819):北交所信息更新:农药“反内卷”与海外补库助“走出泥泞”,亏损收窄迎破局
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2026-02-12 12:46
北交所信息更新 农药"反内卷"与海外补库助 "走出泥泞",亏损收窄迎破局 颖泰生物(920819.BJ) ——北交所信息更新 2026 年 02 月 12 日 投资评级:增持(维持) | 日期 | 2026/2/12 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 3.91 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 5.09/3.31 | | 总市值(亿元) | 47.93 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 47.37 | | 总股本(亿股) | 12.26 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 12.12 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 49.23 | 北交所研究团队 诸海滨(分析师) zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790522080007 初步核算公司 2025 年归母净利润为-2.50 亿元,同比减亏 57.45% 公司发布 2025 年业绩快报,经过初步核算,公司 2025 年营收为 55.31 亿元,同 比下降 2.27%,归母净利润为-2.50 亿元,同比减亏 57.45%。2025 年农药行业呈 局部回暖、分化复苏态势,公司聚焦产品与基地布局,严格管控成本费用,持续 推进组织优化与 ...
星辰科技(920885):北交所信息更新:商业航天与风电装机双引擎加速,2025归母净利润预增超105%
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2026-02-12 12:46
北交所研究团队 诸海滨(分析师) 余中天(分析师) zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790522080007 yuzhongtian@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790525050003 北交所信息更新 商业航天与风电装机双引擎加速,2025 归母净利润预增超 105% ——北交所信息更新 2026 年 02 月 12 日 投资评级:增持(维持) | 日期 | 2026/2/12 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 23.77 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 31.77/11.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 40.60 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 21.04 | | 总股本(亿股) | 1.71 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 0.89 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 664.96 | 2025 预计实现归母净利润 3300~3500 万元,维持"增持"评级 星辰科技发布 2025 全年业绩预告,预计实现归母净利润为 3300~3500 万元,较 2024 年的 1,607.43 万元增长 105.30%~117.74%,实现盈利且净利润同比增幅超 过 50 ...
投资策略点评:液冷的0-1时刻或已到来
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2026-02-12 11:43
Core Insights - The report identifies liquid cooling as a strategic investment opportunity, potentially replicating the success of optical modules and PCBs, with strong growth prospects driven by AI computing needs and stringent energy efficiency standards [2][3] - Liquid cooling is characterized by three main features: strong growth, complete narrative, and favorable odds, indicating a favorable market environment for investment [2] - The industry is transitioning from speculative hype to a high-growth phase with confirmed orders, as evidenced by significant order increases from key suppliers like Vidi Technology [3] Industry Trends - The liquid cooling industry is entering a high-growth phase with a 252% year-over-year increase in organic orders reported by Vidi Technology, highlighting strong market demand [3] - Major tech companies like NVIDIA and Google are adopting liquid cooling as a mandatory standard for their next-generation platforms, indicating a shift from optional to essential technology in AI computing [3] - The industry is witnessing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, with companies like Liying Intelligent Manufacturing acquiring liquid cooling suppliers to secure positions in the AI server supply chain [3] Liquid Cooling Industry Chain - The liquid cooling industry chain consists of three main segments: upstream components, midstream system integration and manufacturing, and downstream applications [4] - Upstream includes key technologies and components such as cooling fluids and CDU, which have high technical barriers and value [4] - Midstream integrates upstream components to provide complete liquid cooling server solutions, with technical integration capabilities as a core barrier [4] - Downstream focuses on high-performance data center operators and industry users driving the large-scale adoption of liquid cooling [4]
2026年1月价格数据点评:物价回升将构成债券收益率上行的基本面
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2026-02-12 11:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recovery of prices will form the fundamental basis for the upward movement of bond yields in 2026. If the PPI month - on - month can maintain 0.15 - 0.2%, it is only a matter of time before the year - on - year price recovery reaches 2%. The "potential inflation 2.0%" will form the lower limit of the 10 - year treasury bond. The 10 - year treasury bond is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5% [1][5]. - The economic recovery falling short of expectations has been disproven. Coupled with possible broad credit and broad fiscal policies at the beginning of 2026, the economic cycle will accelerate its recovery. If there are broad monetary policies, it will be a chance to reduce holdings, similar to 2025. Attention should be paid to whether the PPI month - on - month can remain positive. If inflation rises month - on - month, there is a possibility of tightened funds, and short - term bond yields will also rise. Real estate is a lagging indicator, and it may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2026 January Price Data - CPI: The year - on - year increase in CPI fell, and the month - on - month increase was the same as the previous value. The year - on - year increase was lower than expected, mainly due to the Spring Festival date difference. The core CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month, showing a mild recovery [3][4]. - PPI: The PPI increased month - on - month for four consecutive months, and the year - on - year decline further narrowed. It is expected that prices will enter a "positive growth" phase, which is one of the expected differences in 2026 [4]. - Price Index Base Period Rotation: The impact of this base period rotation on the year - on - year indices of CPI and PPI is generally small. The weights of service items in the CPI have increased, while those of consumer goods have decreased [4]. 3.2 Market Conditions - On February 11, the long - term yield fluctuated downward. From the divergence index, funds were the main buyers of bonds. After the release of inflation data, the CPI year - on - year increase was lower than expected, and with the buying of trading desks, the active 10 - year treasury bond broke through the 1.79% mark, reaching a minimum of 1.7840% [6].