Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend stocks, infrastructure-related sectors, and growth technology opportunities in a fluctuating market environment [16][36][40] - It predicts a GDP growth rate of approximately 5.2% for Q1 2025, driven by improvements in consumption and real estate sales [22][63] Infrastructure Sector - There is a strong seasonal effect in infrastructure construction starting from the Spring Festival to mid-March, presenting opportunities in engineering consulting, environmental equipment, and non-metallic materials [2][10] - Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 6% in early 2025 due to improved local government financial conditions and increased fiscal space [10][16] Consumer Sector - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, with an estimated impact of over 1 trillion yuan in consumer spending [9][42] - However, consumer confidence remains fragile, with a notable reliance on policy support for consumption recovery [3][40][65] - The report indicates that the average consumer propensity to spend has not improved significantly, remaining close to levels seen during the pandemic [41][65] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market is showing signs of gradual improvement, with sales continuing to recover following policy adjustments made from September to November 2024 [50][54] - The report suggests that the first quarter of 2025 will see a continuation of this trend, although the extent of improvement may be limited [50][54] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a stable economic environment with a focus on policy-driven growth, particularly in the first quarter of 2025 [33][63] - It highlights the potential for a "red start" to the year, with policies aimed at stimulating consumption and infrastructure investment [63][64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the CXO sector, indicating expected returns exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [113]. Core Insights - The CXO sector has shown signs of recovery, with many companies reporting sequential improvements in revenue and new orders in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 [26][153]. - The overall performance of the CXO sector is under pressure, with a notable decline in net profit margins due to high base effects from previous large orders and increased competition [149][160]. - The demand for innovative drugs is expected to gradually recover, supported by government policies aimed at enhancing the innovation ecosystem [209][210]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the CXO sector generated total revenue of 63.617 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.76%, and a net profit of 10.797 billion yuan, down 33.88% year-on-year [6]. - The performance of individual companies varies significantly, with some like WuXi AppTec and Kelun Pharmaceutical showing resilience, while others face challenges [6][10]. Market Trends - The report highlights a recovery in overseas business for many CXO companies, with WuXi AppTec's revenue from the US market reaching 6.9 billion yuan in Q3, a 19% increase from the previous quarter [26][29]. - The demand for peptide drugs remains strong, with WuXi AppTec's TIDES business revenue growing by 71% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [144][252]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the CXO sector is at a valuation bottom, with potential for recovery as high base effects from previous large orders are cleared [141][146]. - The increasing support for innovative drug development from the government is expected to boost the overall market sentiment and investment in the sector [209][210]. Capacity and Infrastructure - As of Q3 2024, the CXO sector's construction projects totaled 14.617 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.01%, while fixed assets reached 45.994 billion yuan, up 16.63% year-on-year [167]. - Major companies like WuXi AppTec and Kelun Pharmaceutical are expanding their production capacities to meet growing demand, particularly in the peptide segment [252][278].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) sector, highlighting the resilience of state-owned enterprises and their strong financial performance [7][9]. Core Insights - The TCM sector has shown significant performance differentiation, with some companies experiencing growth despite overall market challenges. Notable performers include Huazhu Sanjiu, Pian Zai Huang, and Dong'e Ejiao, which reported substantial profit increases [7][9]. - The approval of new TCM products by the National Medical Products Administration is expected to drive future growth, with eight new products approved in the first three quarters of 2024 [9][15]. - The third batch of national TCM centralized procurement has been finalized, indicating increased competition in the market, with 20 product groups included in the procurement plan [13][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance of Representative Companies - Pian Zai Huang reported a market value of 134.84 billion yuan, with a TTM PE of 42.91 and a revenue of 8.45 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.19% year-on-year growth in revenue [3]. - Yunnan Baiyao had a market value of 103.86 billion yuan, with a TTM PE of 24.42 and a revenue of 29.91 billion yuan, showing a modest 0.76% year-on-year growth [3]. - Dong'e Ejiao achieved a market value of 38.61 billion yuan, with a TTM PE of 25.01 and a revenue of 4.33 billion yuan, marking a significant 26.28% year-on-year growth [3]. New Product Approvals - In the first three quarters of 2024, the National Medical Products Administration approved eight new TCM products, including innovative drugs and classic formulations, which are expected to enhance market offerings [9][15]. Market Trends and Challenges - The TCM retail market saw a decline in overall sales, with a reported market size of 83.26 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, down 3.2% year-on-year. However, certain segments, such as liver and gallbladder medications, experienced growth [20][36]. - The report notes that the rising prices of medicinal materials have led to increased production costs and potential quality issues, impacting the overall market dynamics [22][36]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three key themes for investment in the TCM sector, focusing on companies with strong brand recognition and innovative product pipelines [24][49]. - The ongoing reforms in the healthcare system and the introduction of new pricing policies are expected to create favorable conditions for TCM companies, particularly those with strong market positions [26][49].

[Table_CompanyRptType1] 新里程（002219） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------|--------|--------------------------|--------------|------------------| | | ⚫ [Tab 重要财务指标 le_Profit] \n主要财务指标 | 2023A | 2024E | 单位 \n2025E | : 百万元 \n2026E | | | 营业收入 | | 3590 4098 4848 5479 | | | | | 收入同比（ % ） | 13.6% | 14.1% | 18.3% | 13.0% | | | 归属母公司净利润 | | 31 117 256 334 | | | | | 净利润同比（ % ） | -80.3% | 280.4% | 118.5% | 30.5% | | | 毛利率（ % ） | 30.1% | 32.3% | 33.4% | 34 ...

[Table_IndN电am力eRp设tTy备pe] 行业周报 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating, but it provides detailed analysis and recommendations for specific companies within the medical device and healthcare sectors [4][9][12][25][65][69][101][103][126][199][203][269][276] Core Views - The competitiveness of China's medical device manufacturing is improving, with a trade surplus of $5.303 billion in the first half of 2024, driven by increased exports of hospital diagnostic and therapeutic products and disposable consumables [4] - The medical sector's overseas expansion is a strategic move under domestic policy trends, with developed countries remaining the optimal choice due to their high consumption levels and stable political environments [9] - Global supply chain restructuring presents opportunities, with Chinese medical device companies accelerating overseas investments through acquisitions and factory constructions [12] - The domestic medical device market is expected to recover by 2025, driven by increased demand from new hospital constructions and equipment updates [118] - The home medical device market is growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 25.94% from 2015 to 2020, and is expected to continue expanding due to technological advancements and increased consumer demand [214][215] Key Company Summaries Medical Device Companies - **Midea Medical**: Overseas revenue grew by 18% in the first half of 2024, with strong performance in core products like patient monitors and blood cell analyzers. The company is also seeing rapid growth in its seed businesses, including minimally invasive surgery and AEDs [65] - **United Imaging Healthcare**: The company is focusing on self-developed technologies and has achieved significant progress in core components for MR, MI, CT, XR, and RT devices. It is also expanding its overseas market presence [69] - **Yahui Long**: The company is a leader in the domestic IVD market, with strong growth in its self-produced chemiluminescence products. It is also expanding its overseas market presence [101] - **Antu Bio**: The company is expected to benefit from the elimination of high base effects in molecular diagnostics and the favorable impact of centralized procurement on market share [103] - **New Industries**: The company is a leader in the domestic chemiluminescence market, with strong growth in both domestic and overseas markets. It is also expanding its product portfolio and improving its market share [126] Home Medical Device Companies - **Sannuo Bio**: The company is a leader in the domestic blood glucose monitoring market, with strong growth in both traditional BGM and emerging CGM products. It is also expanding its overseas market presence [199] - **Kefu Medical**: The company is focusing on core product categories and leveraging its online and offline channel advantages to drive growth. It is also expanding its product portfolio through acquisitions and self-development [203] - **Yahui Long**: The company is a leader in the domestic IVD market, with strong growth in its self-produced chemiluminescence products. It is also expanding its overseas market presence [101] Market Trends and Opportunities - The global medical device market is expected to reach $582.6 billion in 2023, with North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia being key regions for overseas expansion [239] - The domestic medical device market is expected to recover by 2025, driven by increased demand from new hospital constructions and equipment updates [118] - The home medical device market is growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 25.94% from 2015 to 2020, and is expected to continue expanding due to technological advancements and increased consumer demand [214][215] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government is promoting large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, with a focus on medical equipment. This is expected to drive significant growth in the medical device market [136] - Centralized procurement policies are expected to benefit leading domestic companies by increasing market share and driving down costs [103][126] Financial Performance and Projections - **Midea Medical**: The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 40.357 billion in 2024, with a net profit of RMB 13.881 billion [66] - **United Imaging Healthcare**: The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 10.828 billion in 2024, with a net profit of RMB 1.397 billion [161] - **Sannuo Bio**: The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 4.317 billion in 2024, with a net profit of RMB 357 million [200] - **Kefu Medical**: The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 3.207 billion in 2024, with a net profit of RMB 357 million [204]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for the company. Core Insights - The company is actively expanding into new markets while consolidating its stronghold in existing ones, particularly in Africa, where it has established a significant competitive advantage. The focus is on high-end smartphone development and product diversification, including AI and home appliances, to enhance profitability and market share [8][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, known as the "King of African Phones," has been a leading player in the emerging smartphone market since its inception in 2006. It has successfully penetrated various regions, including South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, leveraging its cost-effective products and extensive market experience [40][49]. 2. Market Potential - Emerging markets exhibit substantial demand potential for smartphones, with low penetration rates compared to global averages. The report highlights that regions like Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to see significant population growth, which will drive smartphone adoption [39][41][42]. 3. Product Strategy - The company is focusing on upgrading its product structure by introducing high-end smartphones, such as foldable and AI-enabled devices. This strategy aims to enhance brand image and increase average selling prices (ASP) [8][9][40]. 4. Financial Performance - The company has maintained a gross margin above 27% in Africa, with expectations for margins to improve as it expands into new markets. The report indicates a steady increase in both gross and net profit margins over recent years [8][9][14]. 5. Operational Efficiency - The company has demonstrated high operational efficiency, with decreasing expense ratios as it scales. It employs a "cash before delivery" sales model, which enhances accounts receivable turnover compared to industry peers [14][17][18]. 6. Competitive Landscape - The company is well-positioned against competitors due to its established distribution channels and strong brand recognition in Africa. It is also expanding its presence in other emerging markets, which are expected to contribute significantly to future growth [8][40][41].

Quantitative Models and Factor Construction Quantitative Factors and Construction Process 1. **Factor Name**: w_passvie_zs (Passive Holding Proportion Time-Series Change) - **Construction Idea**: Measures the time-series change in passive holding proportion using z-score standardization to eliminate differences in industry size and volatility[34][41][46] - **Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the passive holding proportion as the ratio of passive market value to daily free-float market value 2. Standardize the time-series change of the passive holding proportion using z-score[34][41][46] - **Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong positive predictive ability in 2024, with high excess returns in the long portfolio, especially in stable and incremental industries[40][44][143] 2. **Factor Name**: mv_passive_chg (Passive Holding Market Value Change Rate) - **Construction Idea**: Captures the rate of change in passive holding market value over a specific period, reflecting both ETF inflows/outflows and stock price changes[34][41][46] - **Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the change in passive holding market value over a given period 2. Divide the change by the initial passive holding market value to obtain the rate of change[34][41][46] - **Evaluation**: Transitioned from negative predictive ability during 2020-2023 to positive predictive ability in 2024, indicating a shift in market dynamics[119][144] 3. **Factor Name**: passive_slope (Passive Market Value Slope) - **Construction Idea**: Measures the slope of passive holding market value over time, combining price reversal effects with ETF fund flow dynamics[127][128] - **Construction Process**: 1. Calculate daily passive holding market value for each stock 2. Compute the slope of passive holding market value over 20, 40, and 60 trading days[127][128] - **Evaluation**: Exhibits stronger long-side stock selection ability compared to traditional reversal factors, with lower drawdowns and higher stability in long portfolios[128][130] 4. **Factor Name**: passive_beta (Passive Fund Flow Sensitivity) - **Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of stock price changes to passive fund flow changes, reflecting the degree of synchronization between price and fund flow[131][132] - **Construction Process**: 1. Calculate daily stock price changes and passive holding market value changes 2. Compute the beta coefficient of stock price changes relative to passive fund flow changes over 20, 40, and 60 trading days[131][132] - **Evaluation**: Stocks with lower sensitivity (lower beta) exhibit better future performance, making this a long-biased factor[133][134][137] Factor Backtesting Results 1. **w_passvie_zs** - Rank IC: 2.23% - IC Win Rate: 62.7% - Long Portfolio Annualized Excess Return: 8.8% - Maximum Drawdown: -16.2%[46][121][122] 2. **mv_passive_chg** - Rank IC: 4.2% (2024) - IC Win Rate: 59.3% - Long Portfolio Annualized Excess Return: 2.2% - Maximum Drawdown: -11.9%[119][121][122] 3. **passive_slope** - Rank IC: -2.01% - IC Win Rate: 59.3% - Long Portfolio Annualized Excess Return: 2.9% - Maximum Drawdown: -13.1%[128][134][136] 4. **passive_beta** - Rank IC: -2.22% - IC Win Rate: 72.9% - Long Portfolio Annualized Excess Return: 4.7% - Maximum Drawdown: -8.2%[134][137][140]

1.1 化工板块市场表现 本周（2024/12/16-2024/12/20）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第 15 位，涨跌幅为 -2.27%。本周上涨板块前三名分别为通信（4.27%）、电子（3.55%）、银行（0.81%）， 本周跌幅前三名分别为轻工制造（-5.01%）、房地产（-4.83%）、建筑材料（-4.70%）。 图表 1 申万一级子行业周涨幅排名 -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 通信电子银行 计算机 公用事业家用电器国防军工汽车石油石化非银金融建筑装饰电力设备医药生物机械设备基础化工食品饮料交通运输环保美容护理钢铁有色金属煤炭纺织服饰农林牧渔传媒综合社会服务商贸零售建筑材料房地产轻工制造 资料来源：Wind，华安证券研究所 化工细分板块涨跌的个数分别为 3、28 个。本周上涨的板块有 3 个，上涨排名前三 分别为非金属材料Ⅲ（4.34%）、有机硅（0.68%）、氟化工（0.15%）；下跌排名前三 分别为其他塑料制品（-5.05%）、改性塑料（-4.94%）、复合肥（-3.93%）。 资料来源：Wind，华安证券研究所 -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 非金属材料 Ⅲ 有机硅氟化工粘胶 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the chemical industry, indicating potential investment opportunities driven by supply contraction, domestic demand growth, and emerging materials [50][59]. Core Insights - The overall manufacturing sector is showing improvement, with the real estate market expected to rebound due to supportive policies [2][12]. - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in performance, with significant growth in certain sub-sectors, while others face challenges [12][14]. - The report highlights a notable differentiation in performance among various chemical products, with some experiencing price recovery while others remain under pressure [43][90]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - Manufacturing demand is improving, with a stable automotive market and a rebound in textile exports [2][12]. - Chemical product capacity growth is slowing, with a notable decrease in new capacity additions expected in 2024 [74][78]. Financial Performance - The chemical industry reported a revenue of 101,770.92 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.97% [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4,834.70 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 16.99% year-on-year [10]. Sub-sector Analysis - In Q3 2024, the chemical sub-sectors such as coal chemical, polyurethane, and textile chemicals showed significant revenue growth, with some exceeding 25% [129][131]. - The report indicates that the gross profit margin for the chemical industry improved to 16.28% in Q3 2024, while the net profit margin slightly decreased to 5.62% [131]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on sectors with supply constraints and those benefiting from domestic demand recovery, such as refrigerants, phosphates, and new energy materials [54][59]. - Emerging materials are highlighted as a key area for investment, with significant growth potential driven by technological advancements and policy support [59][62].