Core Insights - The report highlights the potential expansion of the cross-period price difference after the expiration of the 2509 contract, emphasizing the impact of cross-period price differences on hedging costs [2][4]. Factors Influencing Cross-Period Basis - Multiple factors affect the cross-period basis, including the theoretical pricing of government bond futures, which is influenced by the net price of the CTD bond, the carry of the CTD bond, and the value of the delivery option [3][4]. - The cross-period price difference is positively correlated with the trend of funding rates. A significantly higher coupon rate on bonds compared to funding rates increases the likelihood of an upward movement in the cross-period price difference [4]. - The value difference of delivery options between near and far-month contracts also affects the cross-period price difference. As the probability of CTD switching increases, the value of the delivery option for the far-month contract rises, leading to potential expansion of the cross-period price difference [4][6]. Calendar Effect on Cross-Period Price Difference - An analysis of the cross-period price difference for the T contract since 2024 indicates a higher probability of upward movement, primarily due to the convergence of basis as the near-month contract approaches expiration [6]. - The report suggests that the T/TL contracts are currently at a high position, recommending a narrow basis strategy, while in the context of the equity market disturbances, a steep curve strategy can still be pursued [6]. Conclusion - The report concludes that in a relatively loose funding environment, it may be appropriate to take a long position on the cross-period basis, particularly observing the liquidity of the 2603 contract as the 2509 contract approaches expiration [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Shentong, expecting a favorable return compared to market benchmarks over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Views - In H1 2025, Jiangsu Shentong achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 150 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.72% [5]. - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 1.068 billion yuan, up 1.52% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 138 million yuan, reflecting an 8.54% increase [5]. - The nuclear power valve business saw a revenue increase of 15.67% in H1 2025, with a gross margin of 39.48% [5]. - The company secured new orders totaling 1.072 billion yuan in H1 2025, which will support future performance [6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit: - H1 2025 revenue: 1.068 billion yuan, up 1.52% YoY - H1 2025 net profit: 150 million yuan, up 4.72% YoY - H1 2025 non-recurring net profit: 138 million yuan, up 8.54% YoY [5] - Segment Performance: - Nuclear power segment revenue: 410 million yuan, up 15.67% YoY, gross margin: 39.48% - Metallurgy segment revenue: 197 million yuan, down 10.91% YoY, gross margin: 24.23% - Energy segment revenue: 182 million yuan, down 19.07% YoY, gross margin: 17.83% - Energy-saving services revenue: 201 million yuan, up 6.82% YoY, gross margin: 31.87% [5] - Future Projections: - Expected revenue for 2025/2026/2027: 2.47 billion, 2.81 billion, and 3.13 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 13.8%, and 11.5% [7]. - Expected net profit for 2025/2026/2027: 350 million, 420 million, and 460 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.1%, 21.7%, and 9.3% [7]. Order Backlog - The company has a robust order backlog with new orders amounting to 1.072 billion yuan in H1 2025, including significant contributions from various segments [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in PCB direct-write lithography and is expanding into drilling equipment, achieving breakthroughs in multiple fields within the semiconductor sector [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 654 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.59%, and a net profit of 142 million yuan, up 41.05% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin was 42.07%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 21.71%, a decrease of 0.69 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 412 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.93% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 70.11% [2] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 90 million yuan, up 47.97% year-on-year and 73.84% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 42.55%, an increase of 2.23 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 21.88%, a decrease of 2.36 percentage points year-on-year [2] Business Expansion and Product Development - The company is experiencing high shipment growth and capacity release due to the global demand for AI computing power, leading to an acceleration in the high-layer PCB and high-end HDI industries [3] - The company has been expanding its MAS series equipment applications in HDI, substrate-like boards, and IC substrates, with successful trials and small batch deliveries [3] - The company is also expanding its drilling equipment, with its self-developed high-precision CO₂ laser drilling equipment entering mass production verification with several leading clients [4] Semiconductor Sector Strategy - The company is actively laying out products in various fields of the semiconductor sector, including advanced packaging, IC substrates, mask plate manufacturing, lead frames, power semiconductors, and new displays [5] - The WLP 2000 wafer-level direct-write lithography equipment has received repeat orders from leading clients, providing solutions for 2.xD packaging processes [5] - The MAS 6P equipment has successfully completed acceptance tests with leading clients and has received bulk orders to meet the stringent mass production requirements for high-end HDI and ICS packaging boards [6] Financial Forecast - The company has adjusted its revenue forecast for 2025-2027, predicting revenues of 14.41 billion yuan, 20.46 billion yuan, and 26.50 billion yuan respectively [6] - The forecasted net profits for the same period are 3.11 billion yuan, 5.02 billion yuan, and 6.59 billion yuan respectively [6] - The diluted EPS based on the current total share capital of 132 million shares is projected to be 2.36 yuan, 3.81 yuan, and 5.00 yuan for 2025-2027 [6]

Group 1: Report Core Views - Huaxi Securities' view: 1.80% is the short - term resistance for interest rate increase. The stock - bond seesaw is the main trading line in the bond market. In September, the bond market may break the seasonal pattern, and there are still short - term opportunities for long positions. The recent mention of treasury bond trading by the Ministry of Finance and the central bank is positive for the bond market, and the liquidity in the third and fourth quarters is generally stable. 1.80% is the resistance level for the interest rate (10 - year treasury active bond) to rise [2]. - Seller's view: Under the stock - bond comparison, the proportion of views bullish on the bond market has dropped to 21%, and those bearish account for 17%. The weighted sentiment index has declined compared to last week, with 6 bullish, 18 neutral, and 5 bearish institutions [2]. - Buyer's view: Over 80% of buyers hold a neutral view. The overall sentiment index of fixed - income buyers is neutral and has declined. Among them, 2 are bullish, 24 are neutral, and 3 are bearish [3]. - Treasury bond futures: The basis of T/TL has risen to a historical high, and the curve can still be steepened. Last week, the prices of treasury bond futures showed a mixed trend, with the trading volume and trading - to - holding ratio of all contracts decreasing. The basis and net basis of each main contract have generally increased, and the IRR has generally declined to a historical low. The inter - delivery spread has generally widened, and the inter - variety spread has shown a mixed trend [6]. Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The sentiment index has declined. The weighted index this week is 0.03, and the unweighted index has decreased by 0.1 compared to last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 21% bullish, 62% neutral, and 17% bearish [12]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The sentiment index has continued to decline. The weighted index this week is - 0.02, and the unweighted index has decreased by 0.07 compared to last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bearish view, with 7% bullish, 83% neutral, and 10% bearish [13]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot - words are the stock - bond seesaw and loose funding. The stock - bond seesaw affects the adjustment range and repair rhythm of credit bonds, and loose funding boosts bond market sentiment, but the credit bond market remains in a volatile pattern [17]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 47% bullish and 53% neutral [18]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - Prices have shown a mixed trend, and trading volume has decreased across the board. As of September 5, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.39 yuan, 105.59 yuan, 107.95 yuan, and 116.35 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.02 yuan, + 0.08 yuan, + 0.14 yuan, and - 0.20 yuan compared to last Friday. The trading volume of each contract has decreased, and the trading - to - holding ratio has also declined [23][24]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rates of 30Y treasury bonds, interest - rate bonds, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds have all increased. On September 5, the turnover rates of 30Y treasury bonds, interest - rate bonds, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds were 4.53%, 0.94%, and 5.30% respectively, showing increases compared to last week and Monday [34][35]. 2.3 Basis Trading - The basis has generally increased, and the net basis has generally widened. The IRR of the main contracts has generally declined. As of September 5, the basis, net basis, and IRR of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts have shown corresponding changes compared to last Friday [40][43]. 2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - variety Spread - The inter - delivery spread has generally widened, and the inter - variety spread has shown a mixed trend. As of September 5, the inter - delivery spread of TS/TF/T/TL contracts and the inter - variety spread of 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - TF, and 4*TS - T have shown corresponding changes compared to last Friday [50].

- The report tracks the recent IPO performance in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market), ChiNext, and the Main Board, assuming all stocks are fully subscribed and sold at the average market price on the first day of listing, ignoring lock-up period restrictions[1][11] - As of September 5, 2025, the IPO yield for Class A accounts with a scale of 2 billion RMB is 2.09%, while for Class B accounts of the same scale, it is 1.89%[11] - For larger accounts with a scale of 10 billion RMB, the IPO yield is 0.65% for Class A accounts and 0.59% for Class B accounts[11] - The average first-day increase for STAR Market stocks is 218.45%, while for ChiNext stocks, it is 222.39%[1][21] - The median number of valid bidding accounts for recent IPOs is approximately 3,062 for Class A accounts and 1,602 for Class B accounts in the STAR Market, 3,728 for Class A accounts and 2,098 for Class B accounts in ChiNext, and 3,972 for Class A accounts and 2,346 for Class B accounts in the Main Board[2][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [9]. Core Views - In H1 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 158 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.79%, while revenue reached 4.037 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.55% [6]. - The company's gross profit margin has declined due to an increase in the proportion of lower-margin fixed brackets in its sales mix, with fixed bracket revenue rising to 999.8 million yuan, accounting for 24.76% of the bracket business revenue [7]. - As of H1 2025, the company has a backlog of orders worth 7.29 billion yuan, with 5.89 billion yuan attributed to tracking brackets, solidifying its position as the second-largest global player in this segment [8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 9.35 billion yuan, 10.33 billion yuan, and 11.59 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.6%, 10.5%, and 12.2% [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 710 million yuan, 830 million yuan, and 1.17 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.0%, 15.8%, and 41.7% [9]. - The company's gross margin is projected to be 18.3% in 2025, decreasing to 17.5% in 2026 and remaining at 17.5% in 2027 [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company's traditional business is under pressure, while its AI medical business is accelerating its implementation [2] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.08%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -121 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 232.14% [2][3] - The second quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.32%, with a net profit of -51 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 174.81% [2][3] Business Performance Summary - The second quarter losses narrowed compared to the first quarter, indicating a trend of gradual improvement [3] - The overall performance is under pressure mainly due to the IVD industry being affected by centralized procurement and price reductions, leading to a decline in product prices [3] - The revenue from the centralized and regional testing business in the first half of 2025 was 932 million yuan, down 24.59% year-on-year, while the industrial segment generated 210 million yuan, down 7.18% year-on-year [3] - The third-party laboratory business reported a revenue of 60.19 million yuan, down 18.80% year-on-year, primarily due to price reductions in certain testing projects [3] AI Medical Business Development - The company is deepening its AI strategy, with medical information business revenue reaching 94 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.73% [4] - The AI layout covers B, C, and G ends, creating a closed-loop ecosystem from pre-diagnosis to post-diagnosis [4] - The company has provided AI solutions to over 100 hospitals, including Huaxi Hospital and Qilu Hospital, enhancing specialized diagnostic capabilities [4] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 8.08 billion yuan, 8.70 billion yuan, and 9.46 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -2.7%, 7.6%, and 8.7% respectively [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 199 million yuan, 238 million yuan, and 275 million yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 260.0%, 19.8%, and 15.2% respectively [5] - The corresponding EPS is expected to be 0.33 yuan, 0.40 yuan, and 0.46 yuan, with PE multiples of 52, 43, and 37 times [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 20th this week, with a decline of 1.36%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.18 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 3.71 percentage points [4][23] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of differentiated performance in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's performance this week was -1.36%, ranking it 20th among all sectors [4][23] - The top three performing sectors were electric equipment (7.39%), comprehensive (5.38%), and non-ferrous metals (2.12%) [23] Key Industry Dynamics - Synthetic biology is anticipated to reach a pivotal moment, with fossil-based materials facing disruptive challenges, leading to a demand surge for low-energy products [4] - The upcoming quota policy for refrigerants is expected to enter a high prosperity cycle, with a stable demand growth driven by the development of heat pumps and cold chain markets [5] - The electronic specialty gases market is characterized by high technical barriers and value, with domestic companies poised for significant growth opportunities [6][8] - The trend of light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter raw materials like ethane and propane [8] - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, driven by supply chain security concerns and the shift of downstream industries to domestic production [9] - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as major producers reduce output, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [10] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure anticipated as demand gradually recovers [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a historical high in revenue for Q2 2025, with ongoing capacity expansion and market development [4][6] - The company's H1 2025 revenue was 1.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.92%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 237 million yuan, down 19.27% year-on-year, indicating slight pressure on performance during the industry's bottoming phase [4][5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.663 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.92% year-on-year, and a net profit of 237 million yuan, down 19.27% year-on-year [4][5] - For Q2 2025, the company recorded revenue of 923 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, marking a historical high for quarterly revenue [6] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 26.14%, a decrease of 2.22 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 14.27% [6] Industry Context - The machine tool industry in China saw a revenue decline of 1.7% year-on-year in H1 2025, an improvement compared to a 5.2% decline in 2024 [5] - The metal cutting machine tool sector experienced a revenue increase of 13.8% year-on-year, with a total profit of 5.6 billion yuan, up 33% [5] Product Development and Market Expansion - The company increased its investment in product research and development in H1 2025, focusing on enhancing product performance and understanding key industries [7] - The company is expanding its production capacity in Southern China and advancing the construction of a high-end CNC machine tool intelligent production base in Ningbo [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 3.492 billion yuan, 3.743 billion yuan, and 4.038 billion yuan, respectively [8] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 536 million yuan, 594 million yuan, and 667 million yuan, respectively [8] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20.8, 18.7, and 16.7 for 2025-2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.265 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.197 billion yuan, up 24.65% year-on-year, indicating stable growth [4][5] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a record revenue of 2.986 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 25.9%, and a net profit of 677 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.87% [5] - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 34.48%, a slight decline of 0.74 percentage points compared to H1 2024, primarily due to a decrease in the gross margin of its main product, tire molds [5] - The company has diversified its business across multiple sectors, with the CNC machine tool segment showing significant growth, achieving a revenue increase of 145.08% year-on-year in H1 2025 [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 5.265 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit of 1.197 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.25% and 24.65% respectively [4][5] - The revenue for Q2 2025 reached 2.986 billion yuan, with a net profit of 677 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.9% and 20.87% respectively [5] Business Segments - Tire molds accounted for 49.91% of total revenue in H1 2025, generating 2.628 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.56% [5] - Large component machinery products contributed 36.98% of revenue, achieving 1.947 billion yuan, up 32.94% year-on-year, benefiting from strong demand in the gas turbine and wind power markets [6] - The CNC machine tool segment, a key focus for the company, generated 506 million yuan in revenue, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 145.08% [6] Profitability and Valuation - The company adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 10.78 billion, 12.44 billion, and 14.20 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 2.44 billion, 2.81 billion, and 3.24 billion yuan [8] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 19.2, 16.6, and 14.4 for the years 2025-2027, indicating a favorable valuation given the company's market position and growth prospects [8]