商品猪出栏均价延续周环比小幅回调 均 重连续四周环比上涨后开始回落 ——农林牧渔行业研究周报 投资摘要: 每周一谈:商品猪出栏均价延续周环比小幅回调 均重连续四周环比上涨后开始 回落 商品猪和仔猪价格延续周环比回调,二元母猪价格平稳 商品猪价格 6 月中旬达到年内高点后有所回落,周环比下降 3.24%。根据钢 联数据,截至 6 月 28 日,商品猪出栏均价 17.63 元/kg,周环比下降 3.24%。商品猪价格前期快速上涨,在 6 月中旬达到年内高点 19.06 元/kg, 近期价格有所回落。 仔猪价格跟随生猪价格波动周环比下降,二元母猪价格周环比持平。截至 6 月 28 日,7kg 仔猪均价 619.05 元/头,周环比下降 6.94%,仔猪价格在 6 月 中旬达到年内高点后有所回落,短期内跟随生猪价格波动。截至 6 月 28 日, 二元母猪均价 1736.19 元/头,与上周价格持平。 淘汰母猪价格周环比下跌。截至 6 月 28 日,钢联样本企业淘汰母猪均价 12.58 元/kg,周环比下降 5.27%。淘汰母猪与商品猪价格比值 0.71,较上周 小幅下降,淘汰母猪价格周环比回落幅度大于商品生猪。 均重 ...

——申港证券策略周报 上周申万 31 个一级行业中，3 个一级行业指数上涨，28 个一级行业指数下 跌。涨幅排名前五的行业分别是银行、公用事业、石油石化、国防军工、传 媒；跌幅排名前五的行业分别是房地产、电力设备、商贸零售、非银金融、 医药生物。 上周成交数量为 3268.55 亿股，成交金额为 33305.23 亿元。上涨家数 1170， 下跌家数 4108。 两融数据显示，6 月 28 日和 6 月 21 日相比：融资余额下降了约 215.53 亿 元，融券余额减少了约 10.17 亿元。 沪港通数据显示上周（6 月 24 日到 6 月 28 日），北向流入-117.62 亿元人 民币，南向流入 93.34 亿港币。 从上周市场表现来看，近期弱势格局较为明显，跟踪的五大基准指数也是全面 下跌，其中沪深 300 指数连续 6 周下跌，上证综指则更是连续下跌 7 周。在 31 个申万一级行业指数中，只有 3 个一级行业指数周度上涨，周度下跌的一 级行业指数达到了 28 个。从普及度较广的上证综指来说，在 3000 点之下运 行构成了对投资者的多头情绪抑制。从另一方面来说，由于市场连续下跌，或 许近期有一些反弹 ...

5 月能繁母猪存栏微增 生猪价格周环比 小幅回调 ——农林牧渔行业研究周报 投资摘要: 每周一谈: 5 月能繁母猪存栏微增 生猪价格周环比小幅回调 商品生猪和仔猪价格小幅回调,二元母猪价格平稳 商品生猪价格快速上涨后近期有所回调,周环比下降 1.51%。根据钢联数 据,截至 6 月 21 日,商品生猪出栏均价 18.22 元/kg,周度环比下降 1.51%,猪价近期快速上涨后价格有所回调。 仔猪价格跟随猪价波动,母猪价格周环比持平。截至 6 月 21 日,7kg 仔猪均 价 665.24 元/头,周度环比下跌 2.27%、月度环比上涨 18.09%,仔猪价格在 上周达到高点后有所回落,短期内跟随生猪价格波动。二元母猪均价 1736.19 元/头,与上周价格持平,月度环比上涨 9.95%。 淘汰母猪价格周环比下跌。截至 6 月 21 日,钢联样本企业淘汰母猪均价 13.28 元/kg,周度环比下降 2.64%,月度环比上涨 12.07%。淘汰母猪与商品 猪价格比值 0.73,较上周小幅下降,淘汰母猪价格周环比回落幅度大于商品 猪。 出栏均重周环比上涨,预计短期压栏和二育情绪有所回升,标肥价差倒挂延续 均重 5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [4]. Core Insights - The recent approval of IPO applications by the three major exchanges marks a significant development, with five companies receiving acceptance, indicating a thaw in the IPO market following the new "National Nine Articles" policy [2][7]. - The securities industry has seen a resurgence in mergers and acquisitions, exemplified by Western Securities planning to acquire a controlling stake in Guorong Securities, highlighting consolidation as a viable strategy for growth [4][16]. - Despite individual successes in the sector, the overall performance of the securities industry remains weak, with a noted decline in the industry index [4][16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - For the week of June 17-21, the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.30%, while the securities industry index fell by 1.47%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.17 percentage points. Out of 50 stocks in the sector, 43 declined and 7 increased [3][8]. - The top five performers in terms of stock price increase were Western Securities, Shanxi Securities, Nanjing Securities, Dongxing Securities, and China Merchants Securities. Conversely, the largest declines were seen in Xinda Securities, Huaxin Shares, Dongfang Fortune, Hualin Securities, and Guotai Junan [3][8]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the securities industry may continue to experience a weak trend in the short term, advising patience as the market adjusts. The recent merger activity, while positive for individual firms, has not yet translated into broader industry gains [4][16]. Industry Fundamentals - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the securities industry stands at 21.56, compared to the market average of 11.83, indicating a relative valuation advantage for the sector [5]. - Historical P/E data shows a maximum of 55.09 and a minimum of 10.43, with the current P/E at the 24.92 percentile, suggesting that the sector is relatively undervalued compared to its historical range [19].

本报告仅面向申港证券客户中的专业投资者，本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为当然客户。本报告版权归本公司所有，未 经事先许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如转载或引用，需注明出处为申港证券研究所，且不得对本报 告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改，否则由此造成的一切不良后果及法律责任由私自翻版、复制、发布、转载和引用者承担。 投资评级说明 | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 申港证券行业评级说明：增持、中性、减持 | | 增持 | 报告日后的 6 个月内，相对强于市场基准指数收益率 5 ％以上 | | 中性 | 报告日后的 6 个月内，相对于市场基准指数收益率介于 -5 ％～ +5 ％之间 | | 减持 | 报告日后的 6 个月内，相对弱于市场基准指数收益率 5 ％以上 | | | | （基准指数说明：A 股市场基准为沪深 300 指数；香港市场基准为恒生指数；美国市场基准为标普 500 指数或纳斯达克指数。） | - ...

5 月货物进出口较快增长 关注出口类家居企业 ——轻工行业周报 投资摘要: 每周一谈:5 月货物进出口较快增长 关注出口类家居企业 5 月货物进出口较快增长。根据国家统计局,5 月份,货物进出口总额 37077 亿元,同比增长 8.6%。其中,出口 21471 亿元,增长 11.2%;进口 15607 亿元,增长 5.2%。进出口相抵,贸易顺差 5864 亿元。1-5 月份,货物进出 口总额 175042 亿元,增长 6.3%。其中,出口 99502 亿元,增长 6.1%;进 口 75541 亿元,增长 6.4%。1-5 月份,一般贸易进出口增长 5.6%,占进出 口总额的比重为 65.1%。民营企业进出口增长 11.5%,占进出口总额的比重 为 54.7%,比上年同期提高 2.6 个百分点。机电产品出口增长 7.9%,占出口 总额的比重为 59.0%。 家具类出口金额同比增长 21.9%。根据海关总署数据,家具及其零件 5 月份 出口金额为 443.28 亿元,较去年同比增长 21.9%;1-5 月累计出口金额为 2125.52 亿元,较去年同比增长 20.5%。 建议关注出口类家居企业。5 月出口数据回暖 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the beauty and personal care sector [3]. Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival saw a 6.6% year-on-year growth in beauty and skincare sales, totaling 49.949 billion yuan, with skincare sales at 38.876 billion yuan (up 5.18%) and color cosmetics at 11.073 billion yuan (up 12.08%) [2][7]. - Tmall and Douyin emerged as the two primary online sales platforms, contributing nearly 80% of the gross merchandise volume (GMV) during the event [2][7]. - Proya topped the Tmall skincare rankings again, while the domestic brand Kefu Mei became a standout performer with a staggering growth rate of 190.2% [2][7]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of domestic beauty brands, suggesting continued monitoring of leading companies such as Proya, Juzhibio, and Shumei [2][7]. Market Review - The textile and apparel sector experienced a decline of 3.72%, ranking 24th among 31 primary industries, while the beauty and personal care sector fell by 2.98%, ranking 20th [8][11]. - In the beauty sector, the cosmetics sub-sector performed relatively better with a decline of 1.60%, while personal care products saw a sharper drop of 4.12% [11].

全球运动鞋履制造龙头优势高筑 ——华利集团( 300979.SZ)首次覆盖报告 纺织服装/纺织制造 投资摘要: 全球领先的运动鞋专业制造商。华利集团深耕运动鞋履制造二十余年,积极发 展 合 作 客 户 , 主 要 为 Nike、Converse、Vans、Puma、UGG、Columbia、 Under Armour、HOKA ONE ONE 等全球知名运动品牌提供开发设计与制造服 务,主做运动休闲鞋、户外靴鞋、运动凉鞋/拖鞋类。公司实际控制人为张聪渊 家族,创始人家族持股 87.48%,股权结构集中,管理高效。 运动鞋行业机遇挑战并存,空间仍很大。运动鞋产业链分明,经营模式特点突 出,生产工艺繁杂,品牌客户选择供应商的门槛高,供应商数量逐步下降,利 于头部企业。全球鞋履消费市场规模稳定增长,运动鞋类板块增长迅速,中国 市场发展迅速且潜力大。中国鞋履代工行业竞争激烈,市场潜力大,行业渗透 率稳步提升,制鞋产业正向东南亚和南亚国家转移。 核心竞争力:低成本+强研发+高产能 优质客户深度绑定 客户端:公司销售客户主要为全球知名运动品牌运营商,客户资源优质。公 司与 Nike 等前五大客户通过签订销售框架合同及销售 ...

申 港 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 图表目录 | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------| | | 图 1: 历年强制选市股票数 . | | | 图 2: 上证统着历史市董奉情况 | | | 图 3: 上证综省历史市董奉情况（自 1994 年起）. | | | 图 4: 上海市场的上市公母数量（2001年５月---2024年５月） | | 團 5: | 沪深 300 估值走势（2005 年 4 月 8 日 --- 2024 年 6 月 12 日） . | | | 来 1: 涉及相关注规及录文 | | | 来 2: 该授时期相关法规及条文 | | | 来 3: 该授时期相关法规及条文 | | | 来 4: 国证红利指数的表现（单位：%） | | | 来 5: 小市值指数和宽基相数的深跌幅（单位：%） | 证券研究报告 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 投资策略 内容目录 | --- | |----------------------------- ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.61% and the CSI 300 Index decreasing by 0.91% [43][59]. - The Shenzhen Component Index saw a slight decrease of 0.04%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.58% [43]. - A total of 2725.82 billion shares were traded, with a transaction value of 30,049.42 billion CNY, resulting in 3,289 stocks rising and 1,966 stocks falling [46][61]. Group 2: Industry Performance - Among the 31 primary industry indices, 10 indices rose while 21 indices fell last week [50]. - The top five performing sectors were Communication, Electronics, Computer, Media, and Automotive, with respective weekly gains of 6.01%, 4.67%, 3.66%, 2.07%, and 1.33% [44][50]. - Conversely, the sectors with the largest declines included Transportation, Agriculture, Food & Beverage, Non-ferrous Metals, and Banking, with losses ranging from -1.19% to -3.72% [44][50]. Group 3: Northbound Trading Data - The northbound trading data showed a net outflow of -218.73 billion CNY last week, with a total of -47.35 billion CNY in the latest data [21][34]. - The cumulative northbound inflow for the year reached 664.54 billion CNY, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing 879.33 billion CNY and the Shenzhen Stock Connect showing a net outflow of -214.79 billion CNY [5][21]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net purchases included Luxshare Precision (16.6 billion CNY) and Mindray Medical (13.74 billion CNY) [22]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The report indicates a lack of sustained opportunities in the market, suggesting that short-term positioning may not yield significant results [52]. - Investors are advised to remain patient and wait for clearer market trends to emerge [52]. - The report highlights the increasing number of stocks reaching historical lows, indicating a cautious market sentiment [28][52].