汽车 /行业投资策略周报 / 2024.06.13 汽车行业周报 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 乘用车期待政策发力，LNG 重卡终端实销较好 最近12月市场表现 核心观点 ❖ 板块表现： 汽车 沪深300 上证指数 6月3日-6月7日沪深300指数涨幅-0.41%，申万行业指数中，一级行业汽车 11% 相对收益为-1.79%，二级行业中，汽车零部件相对收益为-2.00%，汽车服务相 5% 对收益为-5.57%，摩托车及其他相对收益为-4.07%，乘用车相对收益为-1.36%， -1% 商用车相对收益为0.33%。 -8% -14% ❖ 子行业观点： -20% 乘用车：据乘联会数据，5月1-31日，乘用车市场零售168.5万辆，同比下降 3%，环比增长10%，今年以来累计零售805.2万辆，同比增长5%；5月1-31 日，全国乘用车厂商批发201.0万辆，同比增长0%，环比增长3%，今年以来 分析师 邢重阳 SAC证书编号：S0160522110003 累计批发956万辆，同比增长8%。5月1-31日，新能源车市场零售79万辆， xingcy01@ctsec.com 同比增长36%，环比增长17%，今年 ...

作者具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格,并注册为证券分析师,具备专业胜任能力,保证报告所采用的数 据均来自合规渠道,分析逻辑甚于作者的职业理解。本报告济晰地反映了作者的研究观点,力求独立、客观和公正，结论 不受任何第三方的授意或影响,作者也不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接收到任何形式的补偿。 ● 资质声明 ● 行业评级 7 财通证券股份有限公司具备中国证券监督管理委员会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格。 ● 公司评级 ● 免责声明 核心通胀稳步回落。5月美国 CPI 同比增速录得 3.3%,较上月回落 0.1 个百分点。 5 月核心 CPI 同比增速进一步降至 3.4%,已连续 14个月下行。美国通胀压力持 续缓解,其中食品、核心商品和核心服务项通胀均有回落,仅能源项对同比增速 贡献仍然较大。 首先,商品通胀稳步下行。5月服装价格环比转负,此前已三个月连续上涨,新车 价格下降,而二手车价格涨幅不及去年同期。随着工资增速放缓、超额储蓄正在 下降,美国居民消费活动有所放缓,未来商品通胀或延续回落。 其次,住房继续带动核心服务项回落。核心服务中权重较大的业主等价租金增速 仍在下行,从房价和市场租金 ...

Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates once this year, with a projected cut of 25 basis points (bp) [3] - The current target range for the federal funds rate is maintained at 5.25%-5.5% [3] - The median forecast for the 2024 target rate is 5.1%, indicating a slight increase from March [3] Group 2: Inflation and Employment - The Fed has raised its inflation forecast for 2024, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) expected to be 2.6% [4] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2024 remains unchanged at 4% [4] - Recent data shows a gradual decline in core Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth, indicating easing price pressures [3] Group 3: Economic Growth - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 is maintained at 2.1%, reflecting steady economic activity [4] - Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is continuing at a robust pace, although it is expected to be lower than last year's levels [4] - The Fed's Beige Book indicates a slightly pessimistic outlook, with most regions reporting only modest economic growth [22] Group 4: Market Reactions and Risks - Market expectations for a September rate cut have slightly decreased from 60% to 57% following the Fed's announcement [5] - High interest rates and strict credit conditions may continue to suppress credit growth and impact real estate sales and business investments [5] - Risks include potential unexpected increases in inflation, tighter monetary policy, and greater-than-expected economic downturns [28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The beer industry is undergoing structural upgrades driven by both supply and demand sides, with innovation and cost pressures pushing companies towards higher quality products [9][18] - The structural upgrade has not yet reached a bottleneck, with significant room for growth in high-end products compared to international markets [37][48] - The focus for future growth will be on product matrices and large single products, catering to various price segments and consumption scenarios [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Structural Upgrades - Structural upgrades are driven by supply-side innovations and demand-side changes, with companies focusing on high-end product offerings to improve profitability [9][10] - The beer market in China is still in the early stages of high-end product adoption, with significant growth potential in craft beer [9][18] 2. Where is the Ceiling for Structural Upgrades? - The high-end beer market share in China is still low compared to international standards, indicating substantial growth potential [37][48] - The focus should be on upgrading the mid-range price segment and optimizing low-end products, as well as maintaining investment in high-end brands [48] 3. Product Matrix vs. Large Single Products - The future strategy for the beer industry should involve a comprehensive product matrix that covers different price segments and consumption scenarios [3][9] - The immediate focus should be on high-end and super high-end beer sales in dining channels, which have shown significant growth [24][25] 4. Investment Recommendations - The seasonal demand is expected to boost beer sales, and ongoing structural upgrades are likely to enhance profit margins [3][4] - Key recommendations include increasing holdings in Qingdao Beer, with attention to Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Beer [3][4]

本次会议紧面向财通证券的受邀嘉宾在任何情况下财通证券研究人员及演讲嘉宾所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议 投资者应充分了解各类投资风险自主做出决策并自行承担投资风险未经财通证券及演讲嘉宾书面授权许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式转发复制引用会议的内容与观点包括不得制作镜像及指向链接不得传播音频视频图片文字等内容如有上述行为财通证券保留追究相关方法律责任的权利 各位投资者大家上午好我是台通汽车的分析师李博一同在线的还有我们汽车团队的手机分析师姓崇洋今天我们也是很荣幸的邀请到了东方集团股份的赵总来跟我们再更新一下公司的一个近期的经营情况首先我们要不先请赵总先简单跟我们就再回顾一下咱们一季度或者是一到五月份 目前的一些像这种销售啊包括我们的这个合资以及自主包括这个中卡这几个方面的一个进展呗好的好的好的各位投资者大家上午好那首先的话我就简单来介绍一下我们公司5月份的一个情况吧那么昨天的话也是发了这个产出的快报 截止到5月份呢我們累計的一個總體的銷量是81萬2那麼同比的話是有一個略微的一個6%的一個增長那麼如果拆開來看的話主要增長的來源的話首先第一是這個合資的一個穩定東風日產和東風本田基本上都是穩定在了一個相對來說比 ...

最近 12 月市场表现 周观点 ❖ 锂电：5 月中美欧电车销量环比齐增，需求向好下 6 月排产环比继续上行。 Q3 负极酝酿涨价，底部向上信号明确，同时建议重视正极及铜箔环节涨价机 会，关注尚太裕能诺德宝明等。《脱离外国敌对电池依赖法》仅针对国土安全 部采购，影响有限，重点关注电池环节宁德、欣旺达、冠宇、豪鹏等。 行业投资策略周报/证券研究报告 2 3 本周国内硅料、硅片、电池片和组件价格持续下跌，辅材价格整体稳定。根据 InfoLink Consulting 公布的价格： 辅材：主栅正银均价为 5358 元/千克，周环比下降 13 元，年环比上升 598 元。 3.2mm 光伏玻璃均价为 24.8 元/平方米，周环比持平。2.0mm 无框玻璃均价为 16.9 元/平方米，周环比下降 0.9 元。光伏 EVA 胶膜均价为 11.3 元/平方米，周环比下 降 0.19 元。POE 树脂：均价为 20160 元/吨，周环比持平。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------ ...

端午消费数据【财通商社】 要点 ⭕1、旅游数据 ⭕全国数据 据文化和旅游部数据中心测算，2024年端午节（6.8-6.10）全国国内旅游出游合计1.1亿人次，同 比增长6.3%；国内游客出游总花费403.5亿元，同比增长8.1%。 图：2019-2024年节假日恢复度 数据来源：文旅部 ⭕目的地数据 【省市县】 湖南省：端午假期3天，全省共接待游客1368.81万人次，同口径比去年端午假期增长23.7%；全 省游客总花费达96.81亿元，同口径比上年端午假期增长25.34%，全省游客人均每日花费为 523.88元。 广东省：假期三天，全省共接待游客1924.5万人次，实现旅游收入91.1亿元 宁夏自治区：假期三天，全区累计接待游客206.61万人次，同比增长16.72%，旅游花费13.9亿 元，同比增长9.97%； 上海市：假期三天，共接待游客761.52万人次 同比增长13.24% 北京市：假期三天，北京市共接待游客779.2万人次，旅游消费100.9亿元。 重庆市：假期三天，全市累计接待国内游客701.44万人次，同比增长9.5%；实现旅游总收入 41 ...

农林牧渔 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.06.10 投资评级:看好(维持) -19% -14% -9% -4% 1% 7% 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关报告 1. 《情绪主导猪价较快上行，周期反转 持续推荐》 2024-06-02 2. 《看涨情绪猪价较快上行，持续推荐 生猪养殖》 2024-05-26 3. 《猪价上行趋势，持续推荐养殖板块》 2024-05-23 农业重点数据跟踪周报 ❖ 生猪养殖：猪价延续上行，价格周期反转。产能去化传导供应偏紧，叠加看涨情 绪，仔猪生猪价格延续上行。短期，节后或有窄幅调整，整体上行趋势不改；中 长期，现企业金流压力增加明显，价格周期反转，持续推荐配置生猪养殖。1） 数量端：4 月能繁母猪存栏延续去化。据国家统计局数据，4 月底能繁母猪存栏 数量 3986 万头，月环比-0.10%。2）价格端：延续上行。根据涌益咨询，6 月 6 日，商品猪出栏价为 18.16 元/kg，周环比+6.14%。相关标的：牧原股份，温 氏股份，新五丰，巨星农牧。 ❖ 禽类养殖：白鸡价格下行。据钢联统计，2024 年 5 月祖代引种及自繁更新量在 14.25 万套，环比-5.63%。下游毛鸡 ...

Group 1: API Price Reduction - The introduction of innovative architectures like MLA in DeepSeek-V2 has reduced input and output prices to 1 RMB and 2 RMB per million tokens, respectively, attracting significant industry attention[37] - Major players like ByteDance and Alibaba have followed suit, lowering flagship model API prices to below 10 RMB per million tokens, with lightweight models dropping to under 1 RMB per million tokens[44] - The overall trend of API price reduction is driven by innovations in model architecture, inference engines, chip cost-performance improvements, and parameter quantization, leading to a significant optimization in inference costs[46] Group 2: MoE Architecture - The Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture allows for efficient scaling of model parameters and reduction of computational costs by integrating multiple expert models and gating networks[38] - DeepSeek-V2 and Snowflake's Arctic model utilize fine-grained expert segmentation and shared expert isolation mechanisms, significantly enhancing parameter efficiency[76] - The next step in MoE research is to develop more heterogeneous architectures that can dynamically adjust computational costs based on task complexity, improving model efficiency[74] Group 3: Attention Mechanism Optimization - The attention mechanism is crucial for the success of large language models, but its computational complexity grows quadratically with sequence length, prompting industry exploration of simplified multi-head attention (MHA) methods[67] - Recent advancements like MLA and Mamba-2 have shown significant potential for optimizing the attention mechanism, leading to improved performance and reduced computational demands[44] - The industry is actively seeking alternatives to traditional attention mechanisms to enhance model efficiency, with ongoing research into state space models like Mamba[52]

⚫ 资质声明 以报告发布日后 6 个月内，证券相对于市场基准指数的涨跌幅为标准： 买入：相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅大于 10%； 增持：相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅在 5%～10%之间； 中性：相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅在-5%～5%之间； 减持：相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅小于-5%； 无评级：由于我们无法获取必要的资料，或者公司面临无法预见结果的重大不确定性事件，或者其他原因，致使我们无法 给出明确的投资评级。 A 股市场代表性指数以沪深 300 指数为基准；香港市场代表性指数以恒生指数为基准；美国市场代表性指数以标普 500 指 数为基准。 ⚫ 免责声明 投资策略报告/ 2024.06.10 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 图表目录 投资策略报告/证券研究报告 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----- ...