Labor Market Trends - Wage growth remained stable with a 4.4% YoY increase in average hourly earnings in May, unchanged from the previous month[1] - Retail and wholesale sectors saw the largest wage growth increases, rising by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively[13] - Real wage growth continued to decline, with April's real hourly earnings growth at 0.5%, down from March[1] Employment Data - May nonfarm payrolls added 272,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations[3] - Unemployment rate rose to 4% in May, with labor force participation rate declining to 62.5%[3][17] - Previous months' nonfarm payrolls were revised downward, with March and April combined revisions totaling 22,000 fewer jobs[4] Sectoral Analysis - Education/healthcare, government, and leisure/hospitality sectors led job growth with 86,000, 43,000, and 42,000 new jobs respectively[44] - Government, business services, and leisure/hospitality sectors showed significant month-over-month job growth increases of 36,000, 34,000, and 30,000 respectively[44] Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings declined to 8.059 million in April, with vacancy rate dropping to 4.8%[10] - Labor supply-demand gap narrowed to 1.567 million in April, indicating gradual market rebalancing[11] - Number of people unemployed for over 27 weeks continued to rise, while labor force exits increased[4] Monetary Policy Implications - Market expectations for first Fed rate cut shifted to September following strong nonfarm payrolls data[5] - Inflation pressures remain above Fed's target, with high interest rates likely to persist in the short term[24]

政 协 全国政协十四届常委会第七 次会议 四 川等3个试点省份开展深化医疗服务价格改革全省（区）试点。5）医务人员薪酬不得与药品、卫生材料、检查、化验等业务收入挂钩。6）推进以业财融合为 重 点 的公立医院运营管理 合理调整提高护理服务价格。 国家发展改革委印 发《2024—2025年社会信用体系建设行动计划》。文件提出，1）加快地方融资信用服务平台整合，原则上一个省份只保留一个省级平台。 2）建立健全信用法规制度，加快推动出台《社会信用建设法》，推动省级信用立法全覆盖。3）定期更新全国公共信用信息基础目录和失信惩戒措施基础清 单，推动已有设立依据的领域出台严重失信主体名单管理办法。 《财政部关于下达2024年 汽车以旧换新补贴中央财政 预拨资金预算的通知》 国务院印 发《深化医药卫生体制改革2024年重点工作任务》。其中提到，1）推进药品和医用耗材集中带量采购提质扩面。2）加快创新药、罕见病治疗药品、临 床急需药品等以及创新医疗器械、疫情防控药械审评审批。3）支持中药工业龙头企业全产业链布局，加快中药全产业链追溯体系建设。4）指导内蒙古、浙江、 央 行相关负责人发表的《扎实做好"五篇大文章" 推动金融高质量 ...

Global Fund Flows - Global funds flowed into the currency, bond, and stock markets with net inflows of $46.7 billion, $17.8 billion, and $10.7 billion respectively during the week of May 30 to June 5, 2024[9] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices showed upward movement despite market data fluctuations[14] - Emerging markets received more inflows compared to developed markets, with a cumulative return difference of 24.6% since the beginning of 2024[27] Bond Market Insights - The yield curve inversion between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds expanded to -0.44%[43] - Global funds predominantly flowed into U.S. corporate bonds, with inflows of $47.39 billion, followed by mixed bonds at $43.56 billion and sovereign bonds at $32.95 billion[43] Sector-Specific Trends - In the U.S. market, the utilities sector attracted the most inflows at $9.23 billion, while the energy sector saw the largest outflows at -$6.55 billion[68] - In China, the financial sector received the highest inflow of $1.99 billion, while the technology sector experienced the largest outflow at -$1.98 billion[65] Northbound and Southbound Capital Movements - Northbound capital inflows totaled 5.3 billion yuan, with significant investments in high-end manufacturing (3.6 billion yuan) and medical aesthetics (3.5 billion yuan)[19] - Southbound capital flows favored the information technology sector, with net purchases of 7.35 billion HKD, while the real estate sector saw the least interest with only 0.52 billion HKD[10] Fundraising and Market Activity - A total of 31.03 billion yuan was raised in the week, with an IPO scale of 7.03 billion yuan from one company[20] - The margin financing balance decreased to 15,118 billion yuan, reflecting a reduction of 135.66 billion yuan from the previous week[12]

2024年6月8日 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|--------------| | | | | | 证券研究报告 | | 新房销售改善有限 | | | 实体经济图谱 2024 年 第 2 1 期 | | | | | | 分析师：陈兴 博士 | | | 财通宏观首席分析师 S0160523030002 | | | 分析师：马骏 博士 S0160523080004 | | | 联系人：陈莹 | | 1 各行业量价速览 • 6月上旬，从中观高频数据看，一方面，终端需求表现边际回暖，6月前7天42城新房销量增速降幅收窄，上周票 房收入与观影人次双双上行，观影市场有所回暖。另一方面，生产略有回落，本周样本钢厂钢材产量增速回落， 纯碱、石油沥青装置开工率均下降， 6月前6天发电耗煤量增速回落。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--- ...

轻工制造 /行业投资策略周报 /2024.06.09 前五月家具出口额同比+16.6%，关注出口相关转债 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近12月市场表现 核心观点  家具出口延续改善，关注轻工出口链。据海关总署数据，2024年1-5月我 轻工制造 沪深300 国家具及其零件出口额达299.2亿美元，同比增长16.6%，灯具、照明装置及 7% 其零件出口额达169.7亿美元，同比+4.6%，塑料制品出口额达438.7亿美元， 1% 同比+8.5%，箱包及类似容器出口额达148.2亿美元，同比+1.6%。低基数下今 -6% 年前5个月轻工各品类出口改善明显，伴随海外去库逐步进入尾声，补库周期 -13% 或将到来，叠加2024年降息预期下美国地产有望迎来复苏，出海企业订单有 -19% 望迎来改善，建议关注相关转债：乐歌转债、松霖转债等。 -26%  本周转债行情表现：本周（2024.6.3-2024.6.7），中证转债指数跌1.04%，上 证转债指数跌0.91%，深证转债指数跌1.29%，万得可转债等权指数跌1.97%， 分析师 吕明璋 SAC证书编号：S0160523030001 万得可转债加权指数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The education, tourism, and cross-border sectors are experiencing high growth, with the report suggesting that the sectors are currently undervalued [1] - The report highlights a significant increase in local and surrounding travel during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a 20% year-on-year growth in bookings for nearby travel [3] - The hotel industry shows signs of recovery, with occupancy rates (OCC) and average daily rates (ADR) improving compared to 2019 levels, although still below pre-pandemic figures [30] - The public service examination training sector is expected to maintain high growth due to an increase in the number of graduates and stable employment policies [46] - The medical beauty market is projected to grow moderately in the first half of 2024, with expectations of new product approvals boosting market sentiment in the second half [53] Summary by Sections Tourism - The report notes that local and surrounding travel is expected to dominate during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a focus on cultural experiences [3] - Scenic stocks are recommended, particularly those with solid fundamentals like Changbai Mountain and Huangshan Tourism [3] Hotel Industry - National hotel occupancy (OCC) for week 22 of 2024 is reported at 55.36%, showing a slight decline from the previous week but an improvement compared to 2019 [30] - Average daily rate (ADR) is at 190.79 yuan, with revenue per available room (RevPAR) at 105.62 yuan, indicating ongoing recovery efforts [30] - The report suggests monitoring the performance of leading hotel companies as summer travel begins [30] Education Sector - The K12 non-academic training sector is entering a peak season, with leading institutions increasing staff to meet demand [43] - The public service examination training sector is expected to see high growth due to a record number of graduates and stable job market conditions [47] - The report emphasizes the importance of compliance and the shift towards quality education services in the sector [46] Medical Beauty - The medical beauty market is expected to see moderate growth in H1 2024, with new product approvals anticipated to enhance market conditions in H2 [53] - The report highlights the increasing focus on collagen products and the expansion of compliant botulinum toxin markets [53] Retail - The report indicates that the retail sector is showing signs of recovery, with CPI increases expected to drive same-store sales growth [4] - The jewelry sector is facing challenges due to high gold prices, but there is potential for recovery in Q3 [4] Cross-Border E-commerce - The report notes opportunities in the cross-border e-commerce sector as overseas consumption patterns shift [4]

工业富联(601138) /消费电子 /公司深度研究报告 / 2024.06.08 全球 AI 服务器龙头，深度受益 AI 需求增长 证券研究报告 投资评级:增持(首次) 核心观点 ❖ 工业富联：全球领先的新形态电子设备产品智能制造服务提供商。公司 基本数据 2024-06-07 拥有云计算、通讯及移动网络设备和工业互联网三大业务板块，致力打造全球 收盘价(元) 24.53 流通股本(亿股) 198.35 新制造生态系统中的“超级纽带”。2018年公司上市，自上市以来，公司依托 每股净资产(元) 7.32 于数字经济新基建的发展机遇，推动“高端智能制造+工业互联网”的核心业 总股本(亿股) 198.64 务高质量发展，实现产品技术的持续创新，公司业绩稳步增长。2023 年公司 最近12月市场表现 收入4763.40亿元，2018-2023年CAGR=2.78%。 ❖ 云计算：全球服务器ODM龙头，受益AI需求增长。AI浪潮下，AI服 工业富联 沪深300 务器需求快速增长。据Trendforce数据，2024年全球AI服务器出货量将达到 上证指数 消费电子 53% 167万台，同比+38%。公司是全球领先的服 ...

轻工制造 /行业投资策略周报 /2024.06.09 家具出口延续改善，关注政策效果释放 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 轻工行业周报 最近12月市场表现 核心观点  本周行情回顾：本周（2024.6.3-2024.6.7）申万轻工指数收报1849.48点，周 轻工制造 沪深300 涨跌幅为-5.76%，跑输沪深300指数5.60pct，在31个申万一级行业中排名第 7% 30。本周轻工制造细分板块普跌，家居用品/包装印刷/文娱用品/造纸分别- 1% 5.15%/-5.46%/-6.15%/-6.84%。 -6% -13%  宽松基调延续，关注政策效果释放。近日，南昌市宣布取消首套和二套住 -19% 房贷款利率下限，首套首付调至15%，山东胶州宣布团购人员购买首套房首付 -26% 款可按50%缴纳，余下可缓交1-2年。继“517”地产新政后，全国多城市陆 续落地执行，上海为首个率先降首付、调整贷款利率下限的一线城市，深圳、 广州于5月28日官宣落地降首付降利率政策，一线城市中已有三城跟进。降 分析师 吕明璋 SAC证书编号：S0160523030001 低住房贷款首付比有助于降低购房门槛和购房成本， ...

图9.公司毛利率水平逐步回升 数据来源：Wind，财通证券研究所 15.80% 12.26% 17.73% 14.45% 10.91% -4.48% -5.07% -1.86% 9.34% 24.74% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1 数据来源：佰维存储 2023 年报，财通证券研究所 数据来源：Wind，财通证券研究所 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准 8 2023 年，由于智能手机等下游需求不振，公司主力业务之一的嵌入式存储营收与 毛利率出现下滑；但得益于公司业务拓展，消费级存储模组业务规模稳步扩张， 毛利率逆势上升，有力提振了公司 2023 年的业绩。 2.2 PC 存储: B 与 C 端双管齐下 公司的 PC 存储产品包括固态硬盘、内存条,主要应用于电竞主机、台式机、笔记 本电脑、一体机等领域。其中，针对企业客户（PC 品牌商、PC OEM、装机商等 PC ...

分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com ❖ 对各国出口普遍续升。从 5 月同比增速来看，对主要经济体出口在低基数 影响下上行明显，对东盟（25.4%）、拉丁美洲（19%）和俄罗斯（-1.1%）出口 增速较上月上行超 10 个百分点。从出口增速拉动值来看，主要贸易伙伴对我 国出口拉动均继续小幅扩大，其中东盟拉动较上月增加近 2 个百分点，拉丁美 洲和"其他"国家对我国出口拉动值均上升超 1 个百分点，"其他"国家主要包括 一带一路国家以及部分中亚国家，指向我国出口长期受益"一带一路"、中非合 作论坛等合作机制。 ❖ 风险提示：国内经济复苏不及预期，欧美需求回落超预期，发展中国家需求 不及预期，进出口政策变动。 | --- | |--------------------------------------------| | | | 图表目录 | | 图 1. 我国出口和进口同比增速（%） | | 图 2. 代表性出口商品量价拆分情况（％） | | 图 3. 主要经济体对我国出口增速的拉动（%）. | | 图 4. 代表性出口商品出口金额同比增速（%）. | | ...