Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the securities industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The investment-driven performance recovery in the third quarter has led to a significant rebound in the performance of securities firms, with a projected industry net profit growth of 23.6% year-on-year to 170.3 billion yuan in 2024 [1][4] - The report highlights two main investment themes: 1) Mergers and acquisitions among leading securities firms, focusing on quality firms like Citic Securities and China Galaxy; 2) The brokerage business benefiting from improved capital market liquidity, with a focus on firms like East Money [1] Summary by Sections 1. Performance Recovery Driven by Investment - The overall performance of listed securities firms showed a significant narrowing of revenue and net profit declines, with Q3 2024 revenue and net profit increasing by 21.0% and 40.8% year-on-year, respectively [4][9] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the total revenue of 43 listed securities firms was 371.4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 103.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of only 2.7% and 5.9%, respectively [9][10] 2. Business Segments Under Pressure - Brokerage business revenue decreased by 13.6% to 66.4 billion yuan due to declining trading volumes and commission rates [17] - Asset management revenue fell by 2.5% to 33.9 billion yuan, with a total private asset management scale of 6.42 trillion yuan, showing an 8.3% increase from the beginning of the year [19] - Investment banking revenue dropped significantly, with equity financing down 76.4% year-on-year to 231.6 billion yuan, while bond underwriting grew by 1.3% to 1.009 trillion yuan [21] 3. Competitive Landscape - The concentration of the industry has increased, with the top five firms accounting for 41.1% of revenue and 51.2% of net profit, up 3.0 percentage points and 5.7 percentage points from the previous year [15][16] - The performance disparity between leading and smaller firms has widened, with the top 22 firms seeing a net profit increase of 1.5%, while the bottom 21 firms experienced a 48.2% decline [15] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts a 23.6% year-on-year increase in net profit for the securities industry in 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) adjustment to 5.6% [1][4] - Investment recommendations focus on leading firms benefiting from market conditions and strategic acquisitions, as well as those with high elasticity in brokerage services [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, indicating a favorable outlook for potential investments [1]. Core Insights - The overall market index has shown a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3272.01, down 0.84% for the week. The chemical sector specifically experienced a decrease of 1.30% [2][8]. - The report highlights significant price movements in various chemical products, with notable increases in the prices of hydrofluoric acid and lithium carbonate, while some vitamins and other chemicals saw declines [24][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Market Review - The chemical sector's performance was mixed, with the top-performing sub-sectors being viscose (+8.87%), phosphate fertilizers (+7.68%), and polyester (+2.59%). Conversely, organic silicon (-8.82%), coatings and inks (-4.52%), and synthetic resins (-3.59%) faced the largest declines [10][11]. 2. Chemical Product Price Changes 2.1 Crude Oil Price Movements - Crude oil prices fell by 4.59% during the week, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics [16]. 2.2 Chemical Product Price Changes - The top five chemical products with price increases included: 1. Ethylene glycol ether in East China: 14.17% increase to 14,500 CNY/ton 2. Anhydrous hydrofluoric acid: 8.56% increase to 11,200 CNY/ton 3. Electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid: 8.33% increase to 5,850 CNY/ton 4. Chlorinated paraffin: 7.69% increase to 1,400 CNY/ton 5. Normal butyraldehyde: 5.65% increase to 6,550 CNY/ton [18][19][22]. - The top five chemical products with price declines included: 1. 1,2-Dichloropropane: 14.73% decrease to 2,200 CNY/ton 2. Vitamin K3: 7.22% decrease to 90 CNY/kg 3. Propylene carbonate: 6.54% decrease to 7,150 CNY/ton 4. Niacinamide: 6.25% decrease to 45 CNY/kg 5. DEG: 5.84% decrease to 4,680 CNY/ton [20][21][23]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end optical materials for domestic substitution, animal nutrition products, and leading chemical companies benefiting from lower natural gas prices and recovering downstream demand [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the construction and decoration industry, indicating a "bullish" outlook [1]. Core Insights - The construction industry continues to face operational pressures, with Q3 2024 showing a decline in revenue and profitability, but there are signs of improvement in cash flow [2][8]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance among sub-industries, with specialized and overseas engineering sectors experiencing profit growth, while traditional construction sectors struggle [3][25]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - The construction industry reported a total revenue of 6.09 trillion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a decrease of 5.08% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1406.35 billion yuan, down 11.02% [2][9]. - Q3 2024 alone saw revenues of 1.94 trillion yuan, a decline of 8.49%, and a net profit of 411.96 billion yuan, down 13.2% [9][14]. - The overall gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 10.10%, a slight increase of 0.07 percentage points, while the net profit margin decreased to 2.31%, down 0.15 percentage points [11][27]. Sub-Industry Analysis - The report categorizes the construction industry into ten sub-industries, noting that three sectors—petroleum engineering, chemical engineering, and engineering consulting—achieved revenue growth in Q3 2024 [26][27]. - Conversely, sectors such as decoration and forestry faced significant revenue declines, with decoration down 27.71% and forestry down 23.85% [26][27]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The industry experienced a net cash outflow of 4764.44 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, an increase in outflow by 2144.41 billion yuan year-on-year [20][21]. - However, Q3 2024 saw a positive cash inflow of 223.12 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in cash flow management [20][21]. - The industry's asset-liability ratio increased to 76.54%, reflecting a rise of 1.16 percentage points since the beginning of the year, primarily due to delayed payments and increased borrowing [24][25]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that with the implementation of fiscal policies, the industry may see a turning point in Q4 2024, particularly in sectors like infrastructure and decoration, which could benefit from valuation recovery [4][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the industry, indicating a "bullish" outlook [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that AI is leading the electronic cycle, with a focus on innovative terminal applications [1]. - The semiconductor sales have shown a year-on-year growth of 20.62% in August 2024, indicating a return to an expansion phase [5][14]. - The report highlights the performance of major companies in the sector, with specific attention to Apple's recent product launches and their impact on market dynamics [31][32][34]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The electronic index underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, with a decline of 2.11% during the week of October 28 to November 1, 2024 [10]. - The consumer electronics sector showed resilience, with a 1.48% increase, while the semiconductor index fell by 4.00% [10]. Industry Data - Global semiconductor sales reached $53.12 billion in August 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.62% [5][14]. - The report notes stable pricing for various DRAM models, with DDR4 prices showing slight recovery while DDR3 prices continued to decline [14]. Key Industry News - Apple reported a revenue of $94.9 billion for Q4, with iPhone sales showing strong performance, particularly in the Chinese market [31]. - Honor and Xiaomi have introduced new AI features in their products, enhancing user experience and functionality [32][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI computing and terminal applications, particularly within the supply chain represented by Apple [37]. - It also highlights opportunities in semiconductor design, passive components, and PCB companies that may see marginal improvements in performance [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The integration of AI with PDF applications is enhancing office efficiency, focusing on two main aspects: knowledge retrieval and command execution [3][9]. - The report identifies two main industry pathways: "+Large Model" and "Large Model+" for AI deployment in office tools [3][9]. - Major PDF vendors like Adobe, Foxit Software, WPS Office, and Wondershare have launched AI dialogue features to improve user engagement and operational efficiency [3][9]. Summary by Sections PDF+AI Empowering Efficient Office Work - PDF reading and editing are crucial tools for serious office applications, with AI enhancing productivity through improved data querying and automation of repetitive tasks [3][9]. External Basic Large Model and "Text + UI" Control - The "+Large Model" approach combines text and UI for effective software application, establishing a competitive edge through automation technologies [4][12]. Company-Specific Features - **Adobe**: Offers AI Assistant for multi-document analysis, allowing uploads of up to 600 pages and enhancing document productivity [13][18]. - **Foxit Software**: Introduces Smart Command for text control and editing, enabling users to execute commands via natural language [19][20]. - **WPS Office**: Provides AI features for document Q&A, full-text summarization, and real-time translation, enhancing user experience [34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the AI foundational infrastructure, such as NVIDIA, AMD, and Microsoft, as well as software vendors like Adobe and Foxit Software for potential growth [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - Recent transactions in high-energy cities for new and second-hand homes have increased month-on-month, while the inventory reduction speed for second-hand homes in low-energy cities has accelerated [1] - The report suggests focusing on real estate companies with strong credit advantages in financing and those with experience in urban village redevelopment [1] - Recommended companies include China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Land & Investment, Huafa Group, Jianfa Group, Binjiang Group, Longfor Group, and Greentown China [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate index rose by 6.01% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.69 percentage points, ranking first among 31 sectors [3][10] - In 30 major cities, the total transaction area for commercial housing reached 3.23 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 26.7% and a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [12] Sales Overview - In the first-tier cities, the transaction area for new homes was 1.2 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 51.3% and a year-on-year increase of 91.1% [12] - The second-hand housing market in the monitored 17 cities saw a transaction area of 2.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 4.5% and a year-on-year increase of 40.9% [16] Inventory and Depletion - The report indicates that the inventory depletion cycle for Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou is 21.06 months, 15.63 months, and 15.88 months respectively [27] - The inventory for new homes in Beijing is 1,060,000 square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.7% [28] Policy Tracking - Dalian has introduced 14 measures to promote stable development in the real estate market, including unifying the minimum down payment ratio for first and second homes to 15% [33][35] - The Tianjin Financial Regulatory Bureau announced that 40 real estate projects have been included in a "white list" with a credit limit of 7.82 billion yuan [36]

证券Ⅱ / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.11.04 投资端成为券商三季度业绩增量的核心动力 证券基金行业周度跟踪 因 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12月市场表现 许盈盈 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160522060002 xuyy02@ctsec.com 分析师 刘全全 SAC 证书编号： S0160524050001 liujj01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1.《SFISF 首批落地+中证 A500 场外基 金发售,资本市场增量资金可期 -- 证 券基金行业周度跟踪》 2024-10-27 2. 《两大创新政策落地,资本市场迎增 童资金――证券基金行业周度跟踪》 2024-10-21 3. 《国君、海通推进速度超预期，财政 政策再发力——证券基金行业周度跟 踪》 2024-10-14 -2- � � ■ 证券研究报告 证券基金行业周度跟踪(2024.10.28-11.03) 核心观点 本周券商观点:上市券商 2024年三季报已披露完毕,受三季度权益市场交 投低迷、股权投行阶段性收紧、主动权益型基金销售市场进一步遇冷影响,券 商经纪、两融、投行、资管业务持续承压，投资端成为贡献业绩增量的核心 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights an improvement in demand expectations and support for livestock prices, particularly in the pig farming sector, where prices are expected to rebound after a recent decline [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the cautious sentiment in the industry, with slow capacity recovery but potential for profitability in pig farming [2][10]. - The report notes a significant increase in the import and export of pet food, indicating a positive trend in the pet food market [2]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Supply of pigs decreased at the end of last month, leading to a rise in prices after an initial drop. The number of breeding sows is recovering slowly, with a September count of 40.62 million, up 0.60% month-on-month [2][12]. - The average price of market pigs as of October 31 was 17.35 CNY/kg, showing a slight week-on-week decline of 0.34% [21][24]. - The report recommends continued investment in pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and others due to expected profitability [2][3]. Poultry Farming - The price of white chickens has increased due to a shortage of supply, with a notable rise in breeding stock imports [2][30]. - The average price of white feather broilers was reported at 7.64 CNY/kg as of November 1, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.46% [31]. Animal Health - The demand for animal health products is expected to recover, driven by rising pig prices and new product developments by companies in the sector [2]. Seed Industry - The report highlights ongoing advancements in the commercialization of genetically modified crops, with a focus on companies with a strong portfolio of major crop varieties [34]. - The USDA's October report indicated a reduction in global production forecasts for soybeans and corn, impacting commodity prices [35]. Pet Food Market - The export of retail packaged dog and cat food has shown significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 37.9% for dog food and 28.4% for cat food in the first nine months of 2024 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the light industry sector [1]. Core Insights - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with October data indicating a positive trend in property transactions, suggesting that the effects of recent policies are beginning to take hold [3][4]. - The light industry index experienced a slight decline of 0.64% over the week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.04 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 sectors [2][10]. - The furniture manufacturing sector reported a year-on-year increase in retail sales, with furniture retail sales in September showing a positive growth of 0.4% [18]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry index closed at 1966.47 points, with a weekly decline of 0.64% [2][10]. - The performance of sub-sectors varied, with packaging and printing up by 0.81%, while home goods, paper, and entertainment products saw declines of 0.73%, 1.02%, and 3.30% respectively [2][10]. Real Estate Data - October saw a year-on-year increase of 0.9% in new residential property transactions, marking the first growth after 15 consecutive months of decline [3]. - The total transaction volume for new and second-hand homes increased by 3.9% year-on-year, indicating a broader recovery across more cities [3]. Policy Impact - The "Two New" policies have stimulated consumer demand, particularly in home renovation and appliance replacement, with significant sales figures reported [4]. - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan to support equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement, which is expected to further boost the home goods sector [4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies with strong supply chain efficiency and management capabilities, such as Oppein Home (603833.SH) and Kuka Home (603816.SH) [5]. - Other companies to watch include Mousse (001323.SZ) and Juran Home (000785.SZ), which are focusing on channel expansion and digital transformation [5]. Key Company Announcements - Oppein Home reported a revenue of 13.879 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 16.21% year-on-year [35]. - Other companies like Sophia and Aorijin also reported declines in revenue, while Qixin Group and Bull Group showed positive growth [35]. Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market and promote the transformation of the construction industry [35]. - In Shanghai, new housing policies have led to a significant increase in transaction volumes, with a 52.3% rise in October compared to September [35]. Export Performance - In September 2024, China's furniture and parts exports reached 4.66 billion USD, with a year-to-date total of 49.544 billion USD, reflecting a 7.7% increase year-on-year [30].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company has undergone a strategic transformation, acquiring a 51% stake in its parent company, which has led to a shift in its main business focus to alkaline batteries. This transition has resulted in a steady increase in revenue, with a reported revenue of 3.594 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.15%. The company has also turned profitable, achieving a gross margin of 47% in 2022, up by 24 percentage points, and a net profit margin of 15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 150 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 46% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Strategic Layout - The company has successfully transformed into the consumer battery sector, focusing on alkaline batteries as its core product. The acquisition of a 51% stake in the parent company has solidified its position in the market [10][12]. - The management team is experienced and stable, with key leaders having long tenures and relevant expertise, which supports the company's capital operations [12]. - The company has successfully increased its control over core assets, with plans to raise its stake in the parent company from 26% to 43% [13][15]. Market Demand and Product Advantages - The demand for alkaline batteries remains robust, with a significant market share in the retail sector, capturing over 80% in China. The alkaline battery market is characterized by low self-discharge rates and competitive pricing, making it difficult to replace [3][41]. - The company benefits from a diverse product matrix, including various battery types, which enhances its competitive edge [3][10]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 4.736 billion yuan, 5.312 billion yuan, and 5.719 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits projected at 184 million yuan, 254 million yuan, and 283 million yuan for the same years. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 32.92, 23.67, and 21.31 times [4][5]. - The gross margin has consistently remained above 45%, reaching 48.51% in the first three quarters of 2024, significantly higher than the industry average of 22% [3][4].