分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 联系人 马乐怡 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《美国服务业或面临滞胀——全球经济 观察第 7 期》 2025-08-09 2. 《美国降息预期升温——全球经济观察 第 6 期》 2025-08-02 3. 《美国投资或转弱——全球经济观察第 5 期》 2025-07-27 4. 《美国消费仍具韧性——全球经济观察 第 4 期》 2025-07-19 5. 《美国低招聘、低裁员——全球经济观察 第 3 期》 2025-07-12 证券研究报告 宏观周报 / 2025.08.16 核心观点 ❖ 全球资产价格：全球长期国债收益率普遍上升。股市方面，本周全球主 要股市普遍上涨。美股三大指数来看，本周标普 500、道琼斯指数和纳斯达 克综指分别上涨 0.9%、1.7%和 0.8%，或受到通胀反弹不强、降息预期稳 固的提振。债市方面，10 年期美债收益率上行 6bp，或因密歇根消费者通胀 预期升温。商品方面，原油周内下跌，IEA 预测石油需求增速放缓。本周金价 走弱，为近两周以来新低。汇率方面，本周美元指数 ...

Economic Performance - July's economic performance reflects the resonance of weakened subsidies, tariff disruptions, and anti-involution policies, leading to compressed profits but maintained production intensity for cash flow purposes[4] - Industrial added value in July increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in the previous month, indicating resilience in production despite tariff impacts[6] - Fixed asset investment in July decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, a significant drop of 5.2 percentage points, with manufacturing and real estate investments declining by 0.3% and 17.2% respectively[25] Policy and Market Dynamics - The Politburo meeting in July maintained a restrained demand policy while emphasizing the need for flexibility and foresight, suggesting potential future policy adjustments[4] - The subsidy for "old-for-new" consumer goods saw a decline in retail growth from 13.2% in June to 9.0% in July, indicating reduced consumer support for subsidized items[15] - Service sector production index grew by 5.8% year-on-year in July, contrasting with the weakening of goods consumption, suggesting a shift in consumer behavior[16] Investment and Consumption Trends - The production and sales rate of enterprises in July was 97.1%, the lowest in recent years, indicating a tightening in operational capacity[9] - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions in nine sample cities rose to 62.4%, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting a shift in the real estate market[29] - Manufacturing investment in July fell by 0.3%, a decline of 5.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by tariff uncertainties and anti-involution measures[28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing continuous retail growth, with brand value becoming increasingly prominent. The retail segment is driving up average prices, while the engineering segment maintains stable volume and pricing [8][9] - The company is positioned in a recovering paint industry, with a focus on high-margin products and services, which is expected to enhance profitability [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 1H2025, the company reported revenue of 5.816 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 436 million yuan, up 107.53% year-on-year [9] - The company’s gross margin increased by 3.70 percentage points to 32.35% due to a 13% decrease in raw material costs and an increase in the proportion of high-margin home decoration paint [8][9] - The net profit margin rose by 3.85 percentage points to 7.49%, supported by cost reductions and improved pricing strategies [8][9] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.081 billion, 1.335 billion, and 1.591 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.47, 1.81, and 2.16 yuan [7][9] - The projected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 30.99x, 25.10x, and 21.06x, respectively [9] Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a significant performance compared to the market, with a 66% increase over the last 12 months, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the construction materials sector [4][9]

Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger car sales growth has declined, while second-hand housing sales have rebounded[2] - In August, new housing sales saw a year-on-year decline of 8%, while second-hand housing sales volume increased, but prices fell[2] - Retail sales of home appliances in August showed a downward trend in year-on-year growth[2] External Demand - The extension of tariff exemptions between China and the U.S. for three months has led to a continued decline in shipping volumes from China to the U.S.[2] - Overall exports are weakening, with the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) showing a decrease in shipping rates and a significant drop in container throughput[2] Production - Manufacturing employment index has reached a historical low, with a year-on-year decline continuing[2] - Steel production has decreased due to maintenance and operational adjustments, while rebar prices have started to rise[2] Prices - Tariff exemptions have suppressed gold prices, while domestic rebar prices have increased, and cement and coal prices continue to rise[2] - The geopolitical situation and rising U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have put downward pressure on oil prices[2] Risks - Potential policy changes and economic recovery not meeting expectations pose risks to the forecasts[2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 716 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 148 million yuan, up 3.30% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for the automotive business increased to 33.62%, up 0.92 percentage points year-on-year, while both the selling expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased [7] - The company is accelerating the construction of its subsidiary in Thailand, aiming to enhance its international competitiveness [7] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 355 million yuan, 458 million yuan, and 550 million yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 38.3, 29.6, and 24.7 [7] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 1,343 million yuan in 2023, 1,357 million yuan in 2024, 1,825 million yuan in 2025, 2,372 million yuan in 2026, and 2,983 million yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 22.4% in 2023 and 34.5% in 2025 [6][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 264 million yuan in 2023 to 550 million yuan in 2027, with a net profit growth rate of 15.1% in 2023 and 22.9% in 2025 [6][8] - The company's EPS is expected to increase from 0.55 yuan in 2023 to 1.10 yuan in 2027 [6][8] Cost and Efficiency - The company's R&D expense ratio is 4.41%, which has increased by 0.43 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a commitment to enhancing research and development [7] - The selling expense ratio is 0.49%, down 0.05 percentage points year-on-year, and the management expense ratio is 8.43%, down 0.41 percentage points year-on-year [7] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a performance of -16% over the last 12 months compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which has increased by 17% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from differentiated new products contributing to revenue growth despite profit impacts from upfront expenses [5][7] - The company is a leader in the field of recombinant collagen and is anticipated to transition from a rapidly growing R&D-driven enterprise to an international biocomposite platform company [7] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 859 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, and a net profit of 392 million yuan, up 26.6% [7] - The medical device segment achieved revenue of 708 million yuan (up 33.4%) with a gross margin of 95.0%, while functional skincare products saw revenue of 121 million yuan (up 152.4%) with a gross margin of 70.8% [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 2.24 billion yuan, 3.07 billion yuan, and 4.09 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.09 billion yuan, 1.51 billion yuan, and 2.05 billion yuan [6][7] Business Developments - The company received regulatory approval for its "recombinant type III humanized collagen gel" injection, marking it as the first of its kind in China targeting mid-face volume loss and contour defects [7] - Strategic collaboration with Yangshengtang aims to build a new ecosystem in the biocomposite materials industry, potentially expanding into orthopedic materials and other health sectors [7] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a performance of -12% over the last 12 months compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading AI SaaS marketing and sales platform, focusing on digital and intelligent marketing solutions for various industries, including retail, automotive, finance, healthcare, and cross-border e-commerce [8][13]. - The company aims to accelerate business growth through three strategic initiatives: building an AI-Agentforce platform, pursuing acquisitions to enhance its product ecosystem, and expanding into global markets [8]. - The report forecasts significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 2.355 billion RMB in 2025, 3.085 billion RMB in 2026, and 4.062 billion RMB in 2027, alongside a return to profitability with net profits of 96 million RMB in 2025, 207 million RMB in 2026, and 354 million RMB in 2027 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2009, the company has evolved into a global leader in AI SaaS marketing solutions, with a focus on digital transformation for enterprises [8][13]. - The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix, including T Cloud for SMBs and Zhenke for large enterprises, and is enhancing its offerings with AI capabilities [17][19]. Market Performance - The company has experienced a significant revenue increase from 2.7 billion RMB in 2019 to 15.6 billion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 42% [19][20]. - The SaaS business is projected to account for approximately 54% of total revenue in 2024, with a recurring revenue model showing strong retention rates [17][19]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 51.09% from 2024 to 2025, with net profit margins improving significantly [7][19]. - The report anticipates a stable gross margin for SaaS services, close to 90%, while the precision marketing service is expected to maintain a gross margin of around 15% [17][19]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to leverage AI technology to enhance customer engagement and operational efficiency, with a focus on expanding its customer base from SMBs to larger enterprises [8][19]. - The report highlights the potential of the marketing and sales SaaS market in China, projected to reach 46.3 billion RMB by 2025, with significant growth opportunities in the Agent market [41][44]. Competitive Position - The company is recognized as the largest provider of marketing and sales SaaS solutions in China, holding a market share of 2.6% as of 2022 [44][45]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a fragmented market, with the company positioned to benefit from its established customer base and technological advantages [44][45].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 150.285 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.29 billion RMB, a decline of 14% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin slightly decreased to 16.4%, down by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratios for sales, management, and R&D also saw reductions [7] - The company experienced growth in both new energy and fuel vehicle sales, with total sales reaching 1.409 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47%, and a market share of 10.4%, up by 2.4 percentage points [7] - The sales target for the year has been raised to 3 million units, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 725,000 units, a 126% increase year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 15.008 billion RMB, 17.846 billion RMB, and 20.954 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 11.99, 10.08, and 8.59 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 179.204 billion RMB in 2023, 240.194 billion RMB in 2024, 337.158 billion RMB in 2025, 396.259 billion RMB in 2026, and 447.102 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 21.11%, 34.03%, 40.37%, 17.53%, and 12.83% respectively [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.308 billion RMB in 2023, 16.632 billion RMB in 2024, 15.008 billion RMB in 2025, 17.846 billion RMB in 2026, and 20.954 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 0.91%, 213.32%, -9.77%, 18.91%, and 17.42% respectively [6] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.51 RMB in 2023, 1.64 RMB in 2024, 1.49 RMB in 2025, 1.77 RMB in 2026, and 2.08 RMB in 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the black home appliance industry, marking its first rating [3]. Core Insights - The black home appliance market is showing a steady growth trajectory, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.1% from 2017 to 2024, increasing from 13.93 billion yuan in 2017 to 37.23 billion yuan in 2024 [9][10]. - The global shipment volume of action cameras is expected to grow from 14 million units in 2017 to 50 million units in 2024, with a CAGR of 17.6%, indicating a faster growth in volume compared to revenue [9][10]. - Price sensitivity is crucial in a highly homogeneous product market, as evidenced by the increase in sales from 33,000 units to 35,000 units when the average price dropped from $218.3 in July 2023 to $150.4 in April 2024 [11][12]. - The primary consumer base for handheld smart cameras consists of cost-conscious ordinary and entry-level users, with over 75% of sales occurring in the price range of $2 to $91 [11][12]. - User satisfaction is primarily driven by image and video quality (35.2%), while the most significant pain point is the mandatory application registration (20.8%), which complicates the user experience [11][17]. - The action camera market is highly concentrated, with the top five manufacturers holding a combined market share of 74%, including GoPro, Insta360, and DJI [14][18]. - Recommended companies to watch include major home appliance manufacturers such as Gree Electric, Midea Group, Hisense, and Haier, as well as smaller appliance firms like Ecovacs and Roborock [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The black home appliance sector has shown a weekly increase of 2.28% in the period from August 2 to August 8, with notable performances in white goods, black goods, and small appliances [25][27]. Industry Data - Air conditioning sales increased by 9.2% year-on-year, while refrigerator sales saw a slight decline of 0.9% domestically but a growth of 3.7% internationally [32]. - Washing machines experienced a domestic sales increase of 8.3% and an external sales increase of 13.2% [32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is recognized as a leading innovative drug enterprise, with projected revenues of 889 million RMB, 1,131 million RMB, and 1,699 million RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -459 million RMB, -379 million RMB, and 5 million RMB for the same years [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 705 million RMB, with a growth rate of 54.9%. The revenue is expected to grow at rates of 5.4%, 19.6%, 27.2%, and 50.2% for the years 2024 to 2027 respectively [6][8] - The net profit for 2023 is -395 million RMB, with projections of -510 million RMB for 2024, -459 million RMB for 2025, -379 million RMB for 2026, and a turnaround to 5 million RMB in 2027 [6][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -0.95 RMB for 2023, -1.23 RMB for 2024, -1.11 RMB for 2025, -0.91 RMB for 2026, and a positive 0.01 RMB for 2027 [6][8] Recent Developments - The company has received clinical trial approval for BAT1308, BAT4706, and BAT8008 for the treatment of advanced solid tumors. BAT1308 is a humanized anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody, while BAT4706 targets CTLA-4, and BAT8008 is an antibody-drug conjugate targeting Trop2 [7] - BAT5906 has received approval for new indications, including retinal central vein occlusion and pathological myopia, with multiple clinical trials already underway [7]