Investment Rating - The investment rating for the brokerage sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The brokerage sector is expected to see upward price movement supported by performance elasticity, with a notable increase in A-share trading volume reaching 3.48 trillion yuan on October 8, 2024, marking a historical high [5] - A-share brokerages have shown a rebound, while H-share brokerages have declined, indicating that the A/H premium still has room for growth compared to historical averages [5] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant performance improvement in brokerages due to increased trading volumes, with estimated profit increments of 9%, 19%, and 28% for average daily trading volumes of 1.5 trillion, 2.0 trillion, and 2.5 trillion yuan, respectively [5] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on leading brokerages with improved return on equity (ROE) due to resource optimization and risk control, specifically recommending stocks like China Merchants Securities, Huatai Securities, CITIC Securities, GF Securities, and East Money [3][4] Key Company Ratings - China Merchants Securities: Market Cap 185.93 billion yuan, Rating: "Accumulate" [4] - Huatai Securities: Market Cap 174.77 billion yuan, Rating: "Accumulate" [4] - CITIC Securities: Market Cap 443.43 billion yuan, Rating: "Accumulate" [4] - GF Securities: Market Cap 94.35 billion yuan, Rating: "Not Rated" [4] - East Money: Market Cap 384.54 billion yuan, Rating: "Accumulate" [4] Market Performance - On October 8, 2024, A-share brokerages rose by 10.87%, while H-share brokerages fell by 27.60%, indicating a significant divergence in performance [5] - The A/H premium for major brokerages has expanded, with premiums of -2%, -6%, and -17% for CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Merchants Securities, respectively, compared to historical averages of 60%, 65%, and 114% [5] Sensitivity Analysis - The report includes a sensitivity analysis showing that brokerages with higher revenue from brokerage services, such as East Money, Huatai Securities, and Changjiang Securities, will experience greater profit elasticity with increased trading volumes [7]

Group 1: Market Trends - The social services sector has seen a market performance decline of 32% over the past 12 months, compared to a 9% increase in the CSI 300 index[1] - The duty-free sales sentiment index for Hainan was recorded at 29.5, indicating a need for improvement as it is below the neutral level of 50[13] - Hainan's airport passenger flow reached 399,000, a 12.1% increase from the previous week, recovering to 109.7% of the 2019 level[13] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Focus on the recovery of duty-free sales driven by improved customer spending and the opening of city duty-free stores in Q4[20] - In the education sector, the public examination training market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase in the number of candidates due to a record high of 11.79 million graduates in 2024[33] - The medical beauty sector shows potential for rebound, with leading stocks like Ai Meike and Juzi Biotechnology experiencing weekly gains of 20.0% and 17.7% respectively[34] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The consumer sentiment in the medical beauty sector is improving, leading to increased spending and a potential surge in demand during Q4 promotions[34] - The retail sector is expected to benefit from favorable employment and real estate policies, with a focus on high-dividend stocks like Yuyuan and Dazhong[2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant increase of 23% in September, with an average daily trading volume of 0.79 trillion yuan[4] - The real estate sector led the market with a notable performance, benefiting from supportive policies, while the non-bank financial sector also saw substantial gains[6] Economic Indicators - The average duration of previous major upward trends in the market was 18 days with an average gain of 22% during the initial phase, followed by 11 days with a 2% decline in the intermediate phase, and 11 days with an 11% gain in the peak phase[2] - The current market has potential recovery space of approximately 10% to the central level and up to 30% to the cyclical high[2] Investment Trends - Foreign capital inflows into Chinese equity assets reached a historical high, with a net inflow of 6.8 billion USD in the last two weeks[2] - Over the past two weeks, ETFs saw a net inflow exceeding 120 billion yuan, with significant contributions from the CSI 300 ETF (+50.4 billion yuan) and the ChiNext ETF (+12.1 billion yuan)[2] Sector Performance - The consumer and real estate sectors are expected to benefit from policy catalysts and economic recovery, with a focus on high-growth areas such as overseas business in non-ferrous metals and machinery[3] - The performance of the A-share market is expected to stabilize and gradually recover, particularly in the context of supportive domestic policies and easing overseas liquidity[3] Risks - Potential risks include the possibility of an economic recession in the United States, unexpected overseas financial risks, and the potential failure of historical patterns to predict future market behavior[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the securities and fund industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant turnaround in the capital market expectations due to policy enhancements, with a notable increase in trading volume and improved liquidity in the equity market [4][17]. - The brokerage sector has seen a substantial increase in stock prices, with a 39% rise in the brokerage sector from September 24 to September 30, indicating a potential upward trend in both valuation and performance [4][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of head brokerage firms benefiting from industry resource optimization and improved risk control indicators, recommending specific stocks such as Citic Securities and China Galaxy [4][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Data Tracking - **Market Performance**: Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 saw increases of 21.91% and 25.52% respectively during the week of September 23-30 [8]. - **Market Activity**: The average daily trading volume for A-shares reached 13,204 billion CNY, a 134.7% increase from the previous week, with a peak trading volume of 26,115 billion CNY on September 30 [11]. - **Public Fund Issuance**: A total of 251 billion units of public funds were issued during the week, with equity funds accounting for 204 billion units, indicating a strong interest in passive stock index funds [15]. 2. Recent Key Events - **Policy Announcements**: On September 24, the central bank announced significant policy measures including lowering reserve requirements and interest rates, aimed at stabilizing the stock market [17]. - **Securities Regulatory Reforms**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released guidelines to support mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the regulatory framework for listed companies [19]. - **Market Stability Initiatives**: The central political bureau emphasized the need to boost the capital market and facilitate long-term capital inflows, indicating a proactive approach to market stabilization [22][23]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the brokerage sector is poised for valuation expansion and fundamental improvement, with a focus on leading firms that can leverage resource integration and risk management enhancements [24]. - Specific stocks recommended include Citic Securities, China Galaxy, and Dongfang Caifu, which are expected to benefit from increased trading volumes and improved brokerage business performance [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry, particularly focusing on companies involved in foundational AI infrastructure and applications [23]. Core Insights - OpenAI's new API features significantly simplify AI development processes and reduce costs, making it accessible for small and medium enterprises to create voice assistants [2][6]. - The Canvas platform revolutionizes writing and programming paradigms by providing a separate output interface for modifications without needing to regenerate the entire content [11]. - Meta's Movie Gen models, with 300 billion parameters for video generation and 130 billion for audio, demonstrate advanced capabilities in generating high-quality multimedia content based on textual prompts [14][15]. Summary by Sections OpenAI's API Developments - OpenAI has introduced several new API functionalities, including real-time voice interaction, visual fine-tuning, prompt caching optimization, and model distillation services, enhancing the developer ecosystem [2][6]. - The real-time voice interaction API integrates multiple models, streamlining the development process for voice assistants [6]. - Visual fine-tuning allows for significant improvements in task success rates with minimal data input, exemplified by companies like Grab and Automat [8]. Meta's Movie Gen Models - The Movie Gen Video model can generate high-quality images and videos based on text prompts, with a training set of 1 billion images and 100 million videos [14][15]. - The Movie Gen Audio model generates synchronized high-quality audio, capable of producing environment sounds and non-narrative music that aligns with visual content [14][15]. - Meta's training approach for these models involved extensive GPU resources, indicating a significant investment in computational capabilities [15]. Upcoming Technological Events - HarmonyOS NEXT is set to launch on October 8, showcasing advancements in a self-developed operating system [18]. - Tesla plans to unveil its Robotaxi on October 11, marking a significant milestone in autonomous vehicle technology [19]. - AMD will host an event on October 10 to present its latest advancements in AI and server technology [20].

计算机 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.10.07 AI 电力，能耗与运营的双重革命 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -36% -27% -18% -9% 0% 9% 计算机 沪深300 分析师 杨烨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 分析师 王妍丹 SAC 证书编号：S0160524040002 wangyd01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《政策刺激下，支付交易量有望回暖， 关注支付 IT》 2024-09-28 2. 《财政政策发力，近水楼台先得月， 关注财政 IT》 2024-09-27 3. 《政策强发力，看多计算机板块，关 注券商 IT》 2024-09-27 核心观点 证券研究报告 ❖ AI 耗电量激增，核电等清洁能源需求提升。根据澎湃新闻，目前训练 AI 大模型使用的主流算力芯片英伟达 H100 芯片，一张最大功耗为 700 瓦，即运 行一小时就要耗电 0.7 度。根据 iea 统计，2022 年全球数据中心耗电量约 460TWh，到 2026 年全球数据中心的总用电量可能达到 1000TWh 以上，这个 需求大致 ...

电力设备 / 行业投资策略报告 / 2024.10.06 电力设备与新能源 3Q2024 业绩前瞻 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -29% -21% -14% -6% 2% 9% 电力设备 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 张一弛 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110002 zhangyc02@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《逆变器 8 月出口数据稳增，关注特 高压柔直招标》 2024-09-25 2. 《 新能源车销量激增，风电市场活 跃》 2024-09-16 3. 《二季度光伏业绩见底出清加速，锂 电小幅改善》 2024-09-07 3Q2024 业绩前瞻 核心观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 锂电：电池端，龙头宁德时代壁垒高筑，亿纬锂能储能强势，订单接踵而来。 材料端，今年以来负极、六氟磷酸锂、电解液陆续出现结构性涨价，供给过剩 格局逐步改善中。行业筑底期，经历两年的全产业链价格深度下跌，我们预计 各环节即将先后进入底部反转阶段。 ❖ 光储: 阳光电源是逆变器和储能系统双龙头，组件和储能系统降价后，海外地 面电站光伏和大储需求快速增长，公司受益明显。光伏主产业链方面，目前硅 料、硅片环节 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, indicating a performance better than the relevant market benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The sales of domestic brands continue to grow year-on-year, with several companies achieving record delivery volumes [3]. - NIO's September delivery volume increased by 35.4% year-on-year and 5.0% month-on-month, totaling 21,181 vehicles delivered [3]. - Li Auto's September delivery volume rose by 48.9% year-on-year and 11.6% month-on-month, reaching a historical high of 53,709 vehicles [3]. - Zeekr's September delivery volume surged by 77% year-on-year and 18% month-on-month, with 21,333 vehicles delivered [3]. - Xiaomi's September delivery exceeded 10,000 vehicles, with plans to ramp up production to 20,000 units in October [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Brand Sales - New energy vehicle companies are experiencing sustained year-on-year sales growth, with many achieving record delivery numbers [3]. NIO Performance - In September, NIO delivered 21,181 vehicles, marking a 35.4% increase year-on-year and a 5.0% increase month-on-month [3]. - Cumulative deliveries from January to September reached 149,281 vehicles, up 35.7% year-on-year [3]. Li Auto Performance - Li Auto's September deliveries reached 53,709 vehicles, reflecting a 48.9% year-on-year increase and an 11.6% month-on-month increase [3]. - The total deliveries for the third quarter of 2024 were 152,831 vehicles, up 45.4% year-on-year [3]. Zeekr Performance - Zeekr delivered 21,333 vehicles in September, a 77% year-on-year increase and an 18% month-on-month increase [3]. - Cumulative deliveries from January to September reached 142,873 vehicles, up 81% year-on-year [3]. Xiaomi Performance - Xiaomi's September deliveries surpassed 10,000 vehicles, with plans to increase production to 20,000 units in October [3]. - The company opened 17 new stores in September, bringing the total to 128 across 38 cities [3].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the chemical industry, with a focus on specific segments and companies that are expected to benefit from market trends [5][11]. Core Insights - The overall market indices have shown significant upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 12.81% and the chemical sector increasing by 15.28% this week [5][11]. - Key stocks in the chemical sector have experienced substantial gains, with Ningxin New Materials leading at +46.13% [5][15]. - The report highlights the performance of various chemical products, noting significant price increases in liquid chlorine and methyl trichlorosilane, among others [20][21]. Summary by Sections Weekly Chemical Market Review - The chemical sector has outperformed the broader market, with notable increases in indices and specific stocks [11][12]. - The top-performing sub-sectors include fluorochemicals, nitrogen fertilizers, and titanium dioxide, with respective weekly increases of 19.25%, 16.54%, and 16.11% [13]. Chemical Product Price Changes - Liquid chlorine saw a price increase of 154.79%, reaching 186 CNY/ton due to rising demand [20][22]. - Methyl trichlorosilane prices rose by 27.78% to 2300 CNY/ton, driven by increased market demand [20][22]. - Conversely, recycled ABS prices fell by 22.11% to 7400 CNY/ton, attributed to lower raw material costs [21][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end optical materials for domestic substitution, particularly in products like OCA optical adhesive and high-frequency resins [5]. - It also recommends monitoring the animal nutrition sector, especially amino acids like threonine and lysine, due to changing feed ingredient dynamics [5]. - Leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical, are highlighted for their integrated operations and potential for growth as natural gas prices decline [5].

Investment Rating and Core Views - **Investment Rating**: Overweight (Initiation) [1] - **Core Views**: The company is a pioneer in the ancient gold jewelry market, leveraging its high-end product positioning and differentiated competition to drive growth through brand momentum, single-store efficiency, and store expansion [2] Company Overview - **Company Profile**: Founded in 2009, the company is a leading brand in ancient gold jewelry, focusing on the research, design, and sale of ancient gold products [11] - **Organizational Structure**: The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founder and his son holding a combined 62.03% of the shares. Employee incentives are robust, with multiple employee持股 platforms established [11][12] - **Financial Performance**: The company has shown strong revenue and profit growth, with 2023 revenue reaching RMB 3.18 billion, a 145.6% YoY increase, and net profit reaching RMB 416 million, a 340.4% YoY increase [14] Market and Industry Analysis - **Ancient Gold Market Growth**: The ancient gold market is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, reaching a market size of RMB 421.4 billion by 2028 [2] - **High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs)**: The company targets HNWIs, with a penetration rate of 5.7% among China's 3.16 million HNWIs in 2022. The company's products cater to the rational, self-indulgent, and social needs of HNWIs [39][40] Growth Drivers - **Brand Momentum and User Expansion**: The company's brand momentum is increasing, with a growing penetration rate among HNWIs and younger, middle-to-high-income consumers [4] - **Single-Store Efficiency**: The company's single-store efficiency is expected to continue improving, driven by product diversity, optimized channel conditions, and price adjustments [2] - **Store Expansion**: The company plans to open 13 new stores in the next two years, maintaining high standards and controlled expansion [2] Product and Channel Strategy - **Product Innovation**: The company focuses on R&D, with the founder leading the product development team. It has launched 324 new products and 419 iterations from 2021 to 2023, with new and iterated products accounting for over 12% of total revenue [33][34] - **Channel Expansion**: The company primarily operates through offline channels, with 88.6% of revenue coming from offline sales in 2023. It focuses on high-end commercial centers in first-tier and new first-tier cities [21] Financial Projections - **Revenue and Profit Forecast**: The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 1.006 billion, RMB 1.435 billion, and RMB 1.818 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.6x, 13.8x, and 10.9x [2] - **Gross Margin and Expense Ratio**: The company's gross margin has remained stable at around 42%, with a declining expense ratio due to economies of scale. The net profit margin improved to 16.7% in H1 2024 [16] Competitive Positioning - **Market Share**: The company holds a 2.0% market share in the ancient gold jewelry market, ranking seventh. It is the only brand among the top ten players that focuses exclusively on ancient gold jewelry and operates all offline stores through a direct model [31][32] - **Comparison with Competitors**: The company's revenue and profit levels are lower than its peers due to its selective store locations and smaller store count. However, its gross and net profit margins are industry-leading, driven by its high-end product positioning and direct operation model [23][24]