Economic Overview - Since the 1970s, Germany's GDP growth has declined from high single digits to below 5%, with an average growth rate of approximately 1.4% from the 1990s to present[63] - The "German disease" is characterized by high welfare, high labor costs, high national debt, high taxes, high unemployment, low investment rates, low growth, and structural issues[63] - Political cycles have influenced economic policies, with a gradual shift towards supply-side policies post-2003 reforms[65] Historical Economic Phases - 1973-1982: Peak of welfare state construction, GDP fell from 5% to nearly negative growth, with CPI fluctuating around 5% during oil crises[66][73] - 1983-1990: Market-oriented reforms led to a GDP growth recovery, averaging 2.9%[66] - 2003-2007: Structural reforms initiated a turnaround, with GDP growth stabilizing around 1.6%[66] Asset Performance - Over the past 50 years, German stocks have increased over 10 times, with significant contributions from financial and technology sectors during bull markets[2] - The German bond market has experienced a long bull run, primarily driven by monetary policy, with a 30-year bull market until the onset of the global pandemic[2] - The German housing market has shown steady growth post-2009, influenced by economic recovery and policy changes[2] Key Stock Performers - Notable companies reflecting Germany's industrial evolution include Hochtief (1970s), Allianz (1980s), SAP (1990s), Volkswagen (2000s), and Infineon (2010s)[3]

农林牧渔 / 行业投资策略月报 / 2024.07.16 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -21% -16% -11% -6% -1% 4% 农林牧渔 沪深300 分析师 余剑秋 SAC 证书编号:S0160522050003 yujq01@ctsec.com 相关报告 | --- | --- | |------------|------------------------------| | 1. | 《供应偏紧猪价延续上涨, | | 回补较慢》 | 2024-07-14 | | 2. | | | 生猪养殖》 | 2024-07-07 | | 3. | 《周期反转养猪扭亏为盈,宠物" | | 战绩亮眼》 | 2024-07-01 | 6 月畜禽养殖跟踪月报 核心观点 ❖ 生猪养殖:猪价整体向上,产能回补较慢。供应压力环比减少,推动猪价 上行,前期压栏和二次育肥适度消化;需求端暂无好转。据农业农村部,6 月 生猪均价为 18.15 元/kg,月环比+16.43%,月同比+26.27%。6 月出栏均重先升 后降,根据涌益咨询,6 月全国平均商品猪出栏体重为 126.17kg,月环比 +0.43%。 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72% to 2971.30, while the Shenzhen Index increased by 1.82% and the A-share Index also rose by 0.72%[2] - The chemical sector saw a 1.19% increase, outperforming the broader market[2] Chemical Product Trends - Top gainers in chemical products: methyl chloride (+7.89%), lauric acid (+7.73%), acetic acid (+6.67%), sulfuric acid (+5.18%), and vitamin E (+4.94%)[37] - Top decliners in chemical products: liquid chlorine (-33.18%), fluororubber ternary rubber (-10.26%), and polyperfluoroethylene propylene (molding material) (-6.67%)[24][38][69] Stock Performance - Top performing chemical stocks: Yuanxiang New Materials (+31.61%), Ningke Biology (+15.38%), and Yabang Co., Ltd. (+14.91%)[4] - Worst performing chemical stocks: Zhongnong Lihua (-14.23%), Jusailong (-13.80%), and Juhua Co., Ltd. (-9.27%)[8] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly released the "Fine Chemical Industry Innovation Development Implementation Plan (2024-2027)"[84] - Vision Power held a groundbreaking ceremony for its super battery factory in Spain, which will produce the latest generation of lithium iron phosphate batteries[95] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-end material localization: OCA optical adhesive, optical film, optical base film, and high-end resin[86] - Pay attention to the animal nutrition industry, particularly the substitution of soybean meal with amino acids[88] - Consider leading chemical companies with integrated upstream and downstream operations, such as Satellite Chemical and Wanhua Chemical[88]

房地产开发 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.07.15 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 房地产开发 沪深300 上证指数 单击或点击此处输入文字。 6 -33% -23% -12% -2% 8% 18% 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号:S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 分析师 欧阳之光 SAC 证书编号:S0160524070001 oyzg@ctsec.com 联系人 吴梦茹 wumr@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《房地产行业周报(2024 年第 27 周)》 2024-07-08 2. 《房地产行业周报(2024 年第 26 周)》 2024-07-02 3. 《房地产行业周报(2024 年第 25 周)》 2024-06-26 核心观点 ❖ 本周板块回顾:本周(2024/7/5~2024/7/11)申万房地产指数上涨 1.11%, 沪深 300 指数较上周上涨 1.20%,板块跑输沪深 300 指数 0.09pct,在 31 个 板块中排第 10 位。 ❖ 行业数据回顾:本周(2024/7/5~2024/7/11)30 大中城市商品房成交面积 17 ...

Group 1: Southbound Capital Inflows - The top three stocks for southbound capital inflows this week were Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (12.2 billion HKD), China Construction Bank (11.6 billion HKD), and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (8.8 billion HKD) [4] - Since the beginning of 2024, the cumulative net inflow of southbound capital has reached 357.04 billion RMB [27] - The financial sector has seen the highest net inflow among GICS industries this week, totaling 27.2 billion HKD [171] Group 2: Northbound Capital Inflows - This week, northbound capital inflows amounted to 159 billion RMB, with significant inflows into the financial sector [158] - The top stocks for northbound capital inflows were Kweichow Moutai (9.69 billion RMB), China Yangtze Power (9.18 billion RMB), and Ping An Insurance (9.07 billion RMB) [180] - Year-to-date, the financial sector has also led in net inflows, totaling 427.7 billion RMB [162] Group 3: Market Trends and Preferences - Global funds have shown a preference for technology and healthcare sectors, with inflows of 2.3 million USD and 0.96 million USD respectively in Chinese assets [154] - The overall market sentiment indicates a shift towards small-cap stocks, with significant inflows compared to large-cap stocks [152] - The net inflow of funds into ETFs this week was 117.11 billion RMB, indicating a strong interest in index-based investments [95]

轻工制造 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.07.14 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -27% -20% -13% -7% 0% 7% 轻工制造 沪深300 分析师 吕明璋 SAC 证书编号:S0160523030001 lvmz@ctsec.com 联系人 何栋 hedong@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《北京二手房成交放量,家具出口延 续改善》 2024-07-07 2. 《楼市新政效果有望释放,关注相关 家居转债》 2024-07-07 3. 《5 月家具出口延续改善,美国通胀 放缓》 2024-07-01 前 6 月家具出口额同比+14.8%,降息预期升温 核心观点 轻工行业周报 本周行情回顾:本周(2024.7.8-2024.7.12)申万轻工指数收报 1698.70 点, 周涨跌幅为-0.43%,跑输沪深 300 指数 1.64pct,在 31 个申万一级行业中排名 第 24。本周轻工制造细分板块跌多涨少,文娱用品/包装印刷/造纸/家居用品 分别+0.23%/-0.21%/-0.28%/-0.86%。 前 6 月家具出口额同比+14.8%,外贸势头向好。据海关总署数据, ...

社会服务 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.07.14 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -38% -30% -22% -13% -5% 3% 社会服务 沪深300 分析师 刘洋 SAC 证书编号:S0160521120001 liuyang01@ctsec.com 分析师 于健 SAC 证书编号:S0160522060001 yujian@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《强化业绩驱动,聚焦持续增长》 2024-07-07 2. 《体验型奢侈消费趋势向好,个人奢 侈品市场承压 》 2024-07-01 3. 《回归业绩主线,聚焦可持续成长性》 2024-06-30 核心观点 从我们对人口的分析来看,对于消费力的修复要保持耐心,人口、就业、 薪酬三方面因素环环相扣,需要强力进行破解,或者需要时间化解。但另 一方面,市场目前没有完全悲观,近期从消费税、市内免税、部分服务消 费行业对外资开放等主题都催生了较大幅度的市场波动,部分超预期个股 市场的反馈幅度也非常显著。 文旅:关注旅游热点孵化及四季度同比基数走低。目前暑期预计出行同比客 流增速平稳,下半年预计东北(暑期避暑+冬季冰雪)与西北(新疆 ...

作者具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格，并注册为证券分析师，具备专业胜任能力，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报 告清晰地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者也不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或问按收到任何形式的补偿. 资质声明 财通证券股份有限公司具备中国证券监督管理委员会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格。 公司评级 以报告发布日后6个月内,证券相对于市场基准指数的涨跌幅为标准: 买入: 相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅大于 10%; 增持:相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅在 5%~10%之间; 中性：相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅在-5%～5%之间; 减持：相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅小于-5%; 无评级：由于我们无法获取必要的资料，或者公司面临无法预见结果的重大不确定性事件，或者其他原因，致使我们无法给出明确的投资评级, A股市场代表性指数以沪深300指数为基准；香港市场代表性指数以恒生指数为基准；美国市场代表性指数以标普500指数为基准, 行业评级 以报告发布日后6个月内,行业相对于市场基准指数的涨 ...

价格对出口的拖累消失 ❖ 电子拖累较为明显。从各类商品贡献来看，除电子和能源拖累进口外，原材 料和机械对进口的拉动均有所回升，其中电子对进口的拉动回落达到 2.3 个百 分点，是进口的最大拖累。从具体进口品类来看，电子品类中，进口集成电路 （1.1%），自动数据处理设备（51.7%）较上月下降 17 个百分点；工业原材料 中，铜矿砂（19.4%）上升 25 个百分点；能源类中，成品油（-19.6%）大幅下 降 22 个百分点。 未来，我们仍旧看好出口。首先，目前美国库存在磨底一段时间后，已经开启 补库周期，从结构上来看，制造商、批发商和零售商处于同步回升阶段，而制 造商近期回升幅度更加明显。从欧元区制造业 PMI 等领先指标来看，二季度 欧洲或也已经开启补库周期。欧美补库将对我国消费品出口起到一定支撑。其 次，对于欧美以外的发展中经济体，欧央行已然降息，美联储或也降息在即， 货币宽松将推动全球经济扩张，而发展中经济体弹性或更大。由于我国目前出 口重心逐步从发达国家转移至发展中国家，降息潮对出口助力不小。最后，随 着美国选举局势的逐渐明晰，对于贸易政策的不确定性，企业抢出口的行为或 将表现明显，对我国出口也有一 ...

M1 增速为何续降？ ——2024 年 6 月金融数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 谢钰 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080003 xieyu01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《降息条件达成——6 月美国通胀数 据解读》 2024-07-12 2. 《工业品通胀继续回升——6 月物价 数据解读》 2024-07-10 3. 《夏季用工走弱——实体经济图谱 2024 年第 25 期》 2024-07-06 ❖ 风险提示：政策变动，经济恢复不及预期，市场预期改善不及预期。 宏观月报 / 2024.07.12 核心观点 ❖ "挤水分"和"弱需求"下信贷走弱。6 月新增社融规模同比由多增转为 少增，人民币贷款是主要拖累。6 月新增信贷同比少增额扩大至 9200 亿元， 结构上企业贷款占到新增贷款的 77%，居民部门融资需求仍然偏弱。一方面， 在地产新政的提振下，6 月地产交易活跃度边际回暖，但销售仍保持负增；另 一方面，在"防空转"、信贷"均衡投放"及"挤水分"的政策要求下，信贷投放节 奏进一步放缓。 ❖ ...