策略快报 10万亿元化债背景下房地产健康发展 税收政策即将推出 2024 年 11 月 12 日 【事项】 11月8日,十四届人大常委会第十二次会议审议通过了近年来力度最 大的化债举措。具体为增加地方债务限额 6万亿元,用于置换存量隐 性债务，为地方政府腾出空间更好发展经济、保障民生。 与此同时,从 2024年开始,将连续 5年每年从新增地方专项债券中 安排 8000 亿元，专门用于化债。针对房地产，支持房地产市场健康 发展的相关税收政策已按程序报批,将于近期推出。 � 【评论】 � 对于地产的进一步支持将激活经济复苏力度。 "国家队"下场收房 � 是今年房地产市场的重点。近期,这项工作的进展有所提速。 11月7日,郑州发文表示,公开征集存量商品房用作保障性住房项目, 房源要求类别为已建成未出售的商品房、优质在建房源项目;项目区 位交通便利、配套完善、具备一定设计水平、园林景观、物业服务等 品质保证;单套建筑面积原则上控制在 120 平米以内,收购价格以同 地段保障性住房重置价格为参考上限。 � 同日,广州发文表示,首笔收购存量住房用作安置房的专项借款资金 已经落地广州,两家银行陆续向有关项目发放首期2.5亿 ...

金融行业专题研究 券商2024年三季报总结:Q3业绩显著改 善,后市表现仍然可期 2024 年 11 月 11 日 【投资要点】 Q3 权益市场明显反弹,行业景气度回暖。前三季度我国经济运行稳中 有进，向好因素累积增多。在严监管态势下，一级市场融资偏少。下 半年（尤其是9月）政策暖风频吹,大幅提振市场信心,9月末二级 市场交投明显回暖,权益市场在大半年的宽幅震荡后迅速反弹,沪深 300 指数较年初+17.10%、创业板指+15.00%、证券指数+22.90%; 债市 在持续走牛后小幅回调,国债指数+5.30%。Q3 末证券板块的标配比例 /公募基金重仓配置比例分别较年初+34/+42bp,低配幅度收窄。 ◆ Q3 业绩显著改善,自营业务收入增幅明显。前三季度上市券商营业收 入/归母净利润同比-2%/-6%，降幅分别较 H1 收窄 10pct/16pct。Q3 单季度营业收入/归母净利润同比+21%/+41%。前三季度自营/经纪/资 管/信用/投行业务收入分别同比+28%/-14%/-3%/-28%/-38%，占比分 别为 44%/22%/11%/8%/7%,自营业务收入明显改善,投行和信用业务 继续承压,轻重 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Add" to the company based on the increasing demand for microwave devices and nuclear industrial equipment due to upgrades in national defense and military sectors [5][3]. Core Insights - The company focuses on two main technological paths: microwave and vacuum technologies, integrating various scientific disciplines to develop products widely used in radar, satellite communication, nuclear industry, and renewable energy sectors [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 454 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 43.29 million yuan, down 20.53% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 35.1%, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 9.53%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 454 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 21.35% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 43.29 million yuan, down 20.53% year-on-year, and the non-recurring net profit was 38.56 million yuan, a decrease of 20.29% year-on-year [1]. - The management expense ratio increased to 16.45%, up 4.07 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio rose to 3.1%, an increase of 1.04 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Product Overview - Microwave devices include vacuum electronic devices and solid-state microwave devices, with vacuum electronic devices being core components in electronic countermeasures and interference fields [2]. - The company produces key components for the ITER project, which aims to harness nuclear fusion as a clean energy source, highlighting its role in significant international scientific collaborations [2]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 856.69 million yuan, 988.08 million yuan, and 1.144 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 115 million yuan, 158.15 million yuan, and 212.3 million yuan [5][6]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 1.06 yuan, 1.46 yuan, and 1.96 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 61.91, 45.02, and 33.54, respectively [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 20.539 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.56%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.32 billion yuan, down 11.25% year-on-year [2][3]. - New contract signings remained stable, with a total of 37.328 billion yuan in new contracts for the first three quarters, a decline of 2.82% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed compared to the first half of 2024 [2][3]. - The company's shield tunneling business has seen an increase in its revenue contribution, rising to 28% of total revenue in H1 2024, compared to 23% in 2023 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.56 billion yuan, down 4.21% year-on-year, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, down 20.88% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 18.84%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced demand in traditional sectors affecting product pricing [3]. - The company’s cash flow from operations showed a net outflow of 1.547 billion yuan, an increase in outflow of 386 million yuan year-on-year [3]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from increased demand in water conservancy and hydropower projects, with a strong market position in tunnel boring machines, holding approximately 60% and 85% market share in relevant sectors [3]. - The report anticipates that as demand increases, product pricing may improve, which could enhance profit margins and overall performance [3]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 1.583 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.20%, followed by a recovery in 2025 with an expected increase of 29.11% [6][7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.71 yuan in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.94 [7].

宏观数据点评 大选后如何看联储降息 -- 月议息会议点评 -美联储11 2024 年 11 月 11 日 【事项】 美国当地时间2024年11月7日,美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)公 布最新利率决议，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，降至 4. 50%-4. 75%区间。 【评论】 本次 FOMC 议息会议前市场已完全定价 11 月 FOMC 降息 25 个基点。根 据芝商所 Fedwatch 工具, 议息会议前一周市场定价有 98.93%概率降息 25 个BP,本次降息已被市场充分交易。 小幅修改声明,就业普遍放松。本次联储声明中调整经济基本面表述, 就业方面,由就业市场"增长放缓(slowed)"改为更宽泛的"劳动力市 场条件普遍放松（generally eased）"表明就业市场降温已从最初的增速 放缓发展为更全面但温和的调整,此前 10月非农仅新增 1.2万人，远低 于预期的 10 万人和前值 22.3万人，受飓风和罢工扰动较大。 通胀仍存反复风险,联储避免给予更多前瞻性指引。通胀方面,对于 去通胀进展议息会议声明中删除了"further"一词,侧面印证了美联储 对通胀改善的信心有所下降，此前 ...

电气设备 \ 证券研 2024. 10. 10 电气设备行业专题研究 智能电表: 需求持续性明确,国内外双 市场共振 2024 年 11 月 11 日 【投资要点】 从国内电表送代与招标看电表究竟是一门怎样的生意? 电表是电网 的关键终端产品,承担着原始电能数据采集、计量和传输的任务。从 国内招标来看,电表具有明显选代周期;随着国内电网的智能化要求 提升,国内电表送代路径为机械表-电子式电能表-智能电表-智能物 联表。随着智能电表的功能升级、智能化提升,电表的价值量有望提 升,因此,我们判断长期来看,电表的市场空间呈现稳健增长趋势。 从国内招标数据来看,目前我国处于第二代智能电表替换期,近年来 招标量逐年提升,2024年国网分三批次招标,招标量合计预计 9528 万只，同比+25%。根据智研咨询,截至 2022年末，我国智能电表保 有量超过 6.5 亿只,按国家要求 8年定期轮换,全国年均智能电表更 换量约 8000 万只。 ◆ 海外各个区域发展阶段不同,因此需求差异较大。亚太:东亚(中日 韩)是成熟市场,主要为更新换代的需求,东南亚/南亚/西亚均提出 部署目标,贡献较快增速;非洲:缺电人口占比高,电力覆盖目 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical industry is currently undervalued, with public fund holdings in pharmaceutical stocks at a relative low over the past decade [1][14]. - In the first three quarters of 2024, the net profit growth rate for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry has narrowed, with total revenue of 1,824.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.51%, and a net profit of 152.50 billion yuan, down 8.22% [1][16]. - The segments showing positive revenue growth in Q3 2024 include APIs (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients), chemical preparations, pharmaceutical commerce, and medical devices [1][17]. - The report highlights a good growth trend in APIs, with increased R&D investment, while chemical preparations are expected to develop steadily [1][26][30]. Summary by Sections Q3 Revenue Growth - Q3 2024 saw a year-on-year revenue increase, with APIs, chemical preparations, pharmaceutical commerce, and medical devices showing positive growth [1][20]. - The overall pharmaceutical sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index due to industry restructuring and centralized procurement [5][20]. Growth Potential in the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Industry - The report expresses optimism about the growth potential in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, particularly in the APIs and chemical preparations segments [1][26]. - The APIs segment achieved a total revenue of 72.55 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.46% [26]. - The chemical preparations segment reported a revenue of 3,170.28 billion yuan, up 3.98% year-on-year, with a significant net profit increase of 31.49% [30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within various segments: - APIs: Chuan Ning Biological, Garden Biological - Chemical preparations: Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Bai Li Tianheng - Traditional Chinese medicine: Da Ren Tang, Tian Shi Li - Biological products: Zhi Fei Biological, Tian Tan Biological - Pharmaceutical commerce: Shanghai Pharmaceutical, Yi Feng Pharmacy - Medical devices: Mai Rui Medical, Ao Hua Endoscopy - Medical services: WuXi AppTec, Tong Ce Medical [1].

汽车行业专题研究 行业销量整体平稳,汽零板块盈利改善 2024 年 11 月 08 日 【投资要点】 乘用车增收不增利，商用车整体承压，汽零利润增速高于营收。2024Q3 乘用车企业实现营收 5104.18 亿元，同比+2.36%，环比+7.86%。实现 归母净利润 153.03 亿元，同比-22.94%，环比-17.69%。实现毛利率 16.78%,同比+0.93pct,环比+1.50pct。实现净利率 3.00%,同比 -0.98pct, 环比-0.93pct。2024Q3 商用车企业实现营收 744.36 亿元, 同比-12.33%,环比-14.99%。实现归母净利润 14.47 亿元,同比-2.48%, 环比-44.78%。实现毛利率 11.10%，同比-1.28pct，环比-1.02pct。 实现净利率 1.94%,同比+0.20pct,环比-1.05pct。2024Q3 汽车零部 件企业实现营收 3328 亿元，同比+0.79%，环比+0.13%，收入增速平 稳。实现归母净利润 184 亿元，同比+15.2%，环比-3.7%。汽零块毛 利率达到 18.9%，同比+0.16pct, 环比+0.10p ...

· · 信息技术 · 证券研 2024 年 11 月 08 日 利润承压静待宏观复苏,国产自主可控 方向坚定 信息技术行业专题研究 � � ◆ 细分板块:算力、智驾、信创景气度较高，收入均有不同幅度增长; 数据要素收入端持续承压,仍待强力政策落地迎接拐点;网络安全板 块部分企业出现恢复性增长;工业互联网板块利润端承压,收入端因 制造业低迷增速缓慢。 � � 【配置建议】 【风险提示】 【投资要点】 机构持仓集中在第力及信创。九月以来,随着政策回暖,计算机(申 万）板块呈现强弹性。机构持仓方面,重仓持股中基金持股比例最高 的为海光信息、新点软件、寒武纪-U、达梦数据、纳思达，主要集中 在算力和信创领域，算力及信创领域维持高景气度。 算力:建议关注海光信息、寒武纪-U、景嘉徽、中科曙光、浪潮信息、 网宿科技等;智能驾驶:建议关注光庭信息、中海达、中科创达、德 赛西威、北汽蓝谷等:敏据要素;建议关注久远银海、德生科技、普 元信息、云赛智联、深桑达、易华录、太极股份、山大地纬、银之杰、 科创信息等:信创;建议关注金山办公、达梦数据、中国软件、中国 长城、纳思达、软通动力、麒麟信安等。工业互联网:建议关注中控 技术、中 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the media and internet industry [4] Core Views - The media and internet industry is stabilizing and recovering, with a positive outlook on the AI industry chain and mergers and acquisitions [1] - The advertising, e-commerce, and gaming sectors are showing signs of stabilization and recovery [3] - The AI industry chain is entering its first year of application, with a focus on emotional companionship and decision-making assistance [3] - Mergers and acquisitions are supported by policy, with companies having sufficient cash on hand and lower net profit margins being more likely to engage in M&A [3] Industry Overview Advertising Market - The domestic advertising market is growing steadily, with a 3.1% year-on-year increase in ad spending from January to August 2024 [11] - Internet advertising market grew by 5.5% YoY in Q3 2024, reaching 176.32 billion RMB [13] - Advertising spending is increasingly concentrated in top platforms, with short videos becoming a key channel for direct conversions [16] E-commerce Market - Online retail sales of physical goods reached 3.1 trillion RMB in Q3 2024, a 4.4% YoY increase [20] - Fresh food and second-hand e-commerce platforms are experiencing high growth, with Hema and Dingdong Maicai showing significant user growth [22][26] Gaming Market - The gaming market rebounded in Q3 2024, with a 23% QoQ and 9% YoY increase in revenue, reaching 91.77 billion RMB [30] - Domestic self-developed games achieved overseas revenue of 5.17 billion USD, a 20.8% YoY increase [30] - Mobile games and client games showed stable performance, with mobile games generating 65.66 billion RMB in revenue, a 1.2% YoY increase [31] Listed Media Companies Performance Revenue and Profit - Listed media companies reported a 3.2% YoY decline in revenue and a 37.3% YoY decline in net profit in Q3 2024 [37] - The publishing and advertising sectors showed stronger resilience compared to other sub-sectors [40] Profitability - Gross profit margin for listed media companies dropped to 30.0% in Q3 2024, down 1.7 percentage points YoY [45] - The gaming and TV broadcasting sectors experienced the largest declines in net profit margins [50] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow for listed media companies decreased by 34.1% YoY in Q3 2024, with the gaming sector showing relatively better cash flow performance [54][58] Investment Strategy AI Industry Chain - The AI application market is growing rapidly, with AIGC apps reaching 79.13 million monthly active users in September 2024, a 393.9% YoY increase [66] - Emotional companionship and decision-making assistance are key areas of focus within the AI industry chain [68] Mergers and Acquisitions - Policy support for mergers and acquisitions is strong, with companies having sufficient cash and lower net profit margins being more likely to engage in M&A [72] - Companies like Wanxin Media, Oriental Pearl, and Times Publishing are recommended for potential M&A activities [73]