· · 信息技术 · 证券研 2024 年 11 月 08 日 利润承压静待宏观复苏,国产自主可控 方向坚定 信息技术行业专题研究 � � ◆ 细分板块:算力、智驾、信创景气度较高，收入均有不同幅度增长; 数据要素收入端持续承压,仍待强力政策落地迎接拐点;网络安全板 块部分企业出现恢复性增长;工业互联网板块利润端承压,收入端因 制造业低迷增速缓慢。 � � 【配置建议】 【风险提示】 【投资要点】 机构持仓集中在第力及信创。九月以来,随着政策回暖,计算机(申 万）板块呈现强弹性。机构持仓方面,重仓持股中基金持股比例最高 的为海光信息、新点软件、寒武纪-U、达梦数据、纳思达，主要集中 在算力和信创领域，算力及信创领域维持高景气度。 算力:建议关注海光信息、寒武纪-U、景嘉徽、中科曙光、浪潮信息、 网宿科技等;智能驾驶:建议关注光庭信息、中海达、中科创达、德 赛西威、北汽蓝谷等:敏据要素;建议关注久远银海、德生科技、普 元信息、云赛智联、深桑达、易华录、太极股份、山大地纬、银之杰、 科创信息等:信创;建议关注金山办公、达梦数据、中国软件、中国 长城、纳思达、软通动力、麒麟信安等。工业互联网:建议关注中控 技术、中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the electric equipment industry [5]. Core Insights - The virtual power plant (VPP) is identified as a flexible resource aggregation platform that coordinates power supply and demand, leveraging distributed energy resources, adjustable loads, and storage [11][4]. - The report highlights the gradual clarification of revenue models for virtual power plants as the electricity market reform deepens in China, with the official operation of the inter-provincial electricity spot market marking a new phase in market construction [3][27]. - The report recommends focusing on platform technology providers and load-side resource aggregators, specifically mentioning companies such as Guodian NARI, Dongfang Electronics, State Grid Information Communication, and others as potential beneficiaries [3][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Virtual Power Plants as Flexible Resource Aggregation Platforms - Virtual power plants aggregate distributed energy resources, adjustable loads, and storage, utilizing technologies such as metering, communication, control, big data, and artificial intelligence [11][4]. - The report categorizes virtual power plants into different types based on the aggregated resources, including generation-type, load-type, storage-type, and hybrid virtual power plants [12][13]. 2. Deepening Electricity Market Reforms and Evolving Revenue Models - The report notes that the revenue models for virtual power plants are becoming increasingly diverse, including demand response, auxiliary service trading, and electricity spot market trading [21][22]. - The implementation of the "Basic Rules for the Electricity Auxiliary Service Market" in 2024 will officially recognize virtual power plants as participants in auxiliary services [29][3]. 3. Market Participants and Beneficiary Companies - The report identifies numerous market participants, emphasizing that the incremental growth lies with platform technology providers and user-side aggregators [3][29]. - Specific companies highlighted as potential beneficiaries include Guodian NARI, Dongfang Electronics, State Grid Information Communication, Guoneng Rixin, Anke Rui, and Suwen Electric [3][29]. 4. Policy and Regulatory Framework - The report discusses the ongoing policy support for virtual power plants, with various provinces implementing guidelines for their participation in electricity markets and auxiliary services [29][35]. - It emphasizes the importance of a well-structured electricity market that includes spot markets, mid-to-long-term markets, and comprehensive auxiliary services to support the profitability of virtual power plants [23][21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.17 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.37%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, up 33.47% year-on-year [1]. - The company benefits from the high demand in the Tibet region due to infrastructure and mining projects, with sales value in the region reaching 332 million yuan, a significant increase of 102.06% year-on-year [1][2]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements have been notable, with a decrease in expense ratio by 3.7 percentage points, helping maintain profit growth despite a slight decline in revenue for Q3 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 448 million yuan, down 4.29% year-on-year, while net profit was 56 million yuan, an increase of 11.46% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 26.91%, a decrease of 2.63 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 margin at 28.79%, down 1.91 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 121 million, 222 million, and 388 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 23.56%, 83.56%, and 74.97% [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in water conservancy and mining projects, with a projected investment growth rate of 37.1% in the water management sector [2]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 9.29 billion yuan, with a 52-week high of 34.19 yuan and a low of 10.05 yuan [4]. - The stock has seen a 52-week increase of 95.60% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [4]. Core Insights - The consumer sector in Q3 2024 shows a mixed performance, with a fund allocation of 20.05%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous quarter, yet still at the lower end of historical ranges [13][14]. - The beauty and personal care segment is under pressure, but potential recovery is anticipated due to supportive policies and improving market sentiment [1][2]. - Retail performance is uneven, with specific sectors like IP consumption and bulk snacks showing resilience, while overall profitability is expected to improve as consumer policies take effect [1][2]. Summary by Sections Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty care sector is experiencing weak growth, with significant performance differentiation among companies. Key stocks to watch include Aimeike and Betaini, which are expected to benefit from policy support [1][2]. - The beauty business is facing a slowdown, with a notable decline in revenue growth rates [1][2]. Retail - The retail sector is under pressure, with increasing performance divergence among individual stocks. Recommended companies include Anker Innovations and Chongqing Department Store, which are expected to maintain strong positions in a stable competitive landscape [1][2]. - The jewelry sector is entering a deleveraging phase, while the cross-border e-commerce segment faces intensified competition and rising shipping costs [1][2]. Travel and Hospitality - The hotel and duty-free sectors are experiencing performance challenges, with a focus on price-driven volume growth strategies. Recommended companies include Ctrip Group and Jinjiang Hotels, which are expected to navigate these challenges effectively [2][20]. - The duty-free segment is highlighted for potential rebound opportunities, particularly for leading players like China Duty Free Group [2]. Human Resources - The human resources sector shows strong revenue and performance, particularly in outsourcing and flexible labor services. Recommended companies include Beijing Human Resources and Recruit International, which are expected to maintain robust growth [2][11]. Education - The education sector, particularly the training segment, is performing well, while vocational education and educational technology face revenue pressures. Key players include New Oriental and TAL Education, which are expected to continue their growth trajectories [2][11]. Home Appliances - The home appliance sector shows significant differentiation, with the white goods segment maintaining stable operations despite a slowdown in revenue growth. Companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home are recommended for their resilience [2][11].

Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the market (maintained) [7] Core Views - The report highlights the potential of copper paste as a cost-effective alternative to silver paste in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, with significant profit margins expected due to cost reductions of 20%-60% [4] - The adoption of copper paste is seen as a major trend in the metalization process, driven by the need to reduce costs amid declining silver prices and rising silver consumption [5] - The report recommends focusing on leading material companies such as **Polyrocks Materials**, **Deke Corporation**, and **Suzhou Good-Ark** due to their potential in the copper paste market [43] Summary by Sections Metalization Cost Reduction and Copper Paste Solution - Metalization cost reduction is urgent due to the rising cost of silver paste, which currently accounts for 31.97% of total battery production costs, slightly lower than silicon wafers at 44.22% [13] - Two main directions for cost reduction: 1) Process improvements to reduce silver paste usage (e.g., multi-busbar, busbar-free technologies), and 2) Substituting silver with cheaper conductive metals like copper [15] - Copper paste is considered the ideal solution for TOPCon metalization cost reduction, as it addresses issues like copper oxidation and sintering diffusion [22] Potential Application of Copper Paste in PV - A proposed application involves a double-layer structure using silver seed layers/points combined with copper paste, which reduces silver consumption to 2mg/w while maintaining battery conversion efficiency [3] - The double-layer structure uses silver paste for the seed layer/points to ensure good interface properties, while copper paste is applied above the silver layer for current collection and transmission [25] - Simulation results show that using double-sided silver seed points with copper paste can reduce energy loss by only 0.01mW/cm² compared to the baseline [30] Copper Paste Processing Fees and Profit Impact - Copper paste application can reduce costs by 20%-60%, with a median reduction of 40%, leading to a metalization cost of 4.2-4.8 cents/w [4] - The processing fee for copper paste is estimated at 3.9-4.4 cents/w, with a profit margin of 3.2-3.6 cents/w, significantly higher than silver paste [35] - Under baseline assumptions, the copper paste processing fee market is projected to reach 16.8 billion yuan by 2026, with leading companies potentially generating profits of 3.19-3.59 billion yuan [40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends **Polyrocks Materials** as a key player in the copper paste market, with a projected EPS of 3.78 yuan by 2026 and a "Hold" rating [44] - **Deke Corporation** and **Suzhou Good-Ark** are also highlighted as companies to watch, though they currently lack specific ratings [44]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [3][5] Core Views - The company's Q3 net loss narrowed by 572 million yuan compared to Q2, signaling a bottom in profitability [1] - With silicon material prices rebounding since August, the company's gross margin is expected to continue improving [1] - The company maintains a healthy financial position with no interest-bearing debt and ample cash reserves of 14.49 billion yuan [2] Business Performance - Q3 revenue was 1.421 billion yuan, down 60.01% YoY, with a net loss of 429 million yuan, a 162.27% YoY decrease but a 572 million yuan improvement from Q2 [1] - Q3 gross margin turned positive at 9.2%, up from -23.6% in Q2 [1] - Polysilicon production in Q3 was 43,600 tons (75.1% N-type), with sales of 42,100 tons (79.4% N-type) and a production-to-sales ratio of 96.6%, up 30.3 percentage points QoQ [1] - Unit cost increased 6.3% QoQ to 48.83 yuan/kg due to higher fixed costs from reduced production, while cash cost decreased 3.1% to 38.93 yuan/kg due to improved production efficiency [1] Financial Position - The company has no interest-bearing debt and holds 14.49 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, including 10.31 billion yuan in structured deposits and time deposits [2] - Total assets stood at 47.77 billion yuan as of Q3 2024, with current assets of 16.35 billion yuan and non-current assets of 31.42 billion yuan [7][8] Industry Outlook - New capacity additions in the silicon material industry have significantly slowed, with many companies maintaining low operating rates to adapt to market changes [2] - Profitability differences among companies are becoming more pronounced, with silicon material prices still in an L-shaped bottoming phase [2] Valuation and Forecast - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is 7.4/15.1/16.8 billion yuan, with net profit of -1.4/1.5/2.3 billion yuan [5] - EPS forecast for 2024-2026 is -0.67/0.71/1.09 yuan per share, with P/E ratios of -/44/29x [5] - EBITDA forecast for 2024-2026 is 875/5,018/6,303 million yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "增持" (Overweight) rating to 华宝新能 (301327) [5] Core Views - 华宝新能's Q3 2024 net profit surged by 888.90% YoY, indicating a significant turnaround in operations [1] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 2.133 billion yuan, a 35.02% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 159 million yuan, up 357.06% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was 990 million yuan, a 50.41% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 87 million yuan, up 888.90% YoY [1] - The company's profitability improved significantly due to lower raw material costs, optimized inventory structure, and product quality enhancements, with gross margin rising to 45.17% in the first three quarters, up 5.86 percentage points YoY [1] Market Performance - In the US market, revenue grew by 41.12% YoY in the first three quarters, driven by high outdoor activity penetration and consumer preference for high-capacity products [2] - In the Japanese market, revenue increased by 72.69% YoY, benefiting from frequent natural disasters and strong demand for portable energy storage products [2] - The company's global channel network expanded, with brand website revenue growing by 61.81% YoY, and products now available in over 50 countries and regions [2] Product Innovation - The company's Solar Generator product line saw a 130% YoY revenue increase in the first three quarters, with new flagship products featuring innovative CTB module designs [2] - 华宝新能 introduced a groundbreaking all-scenario home green power solution, including the world's first DIY small home green power system and XBC photovoltaic tile system [2] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 3.094 billion yuan, 4.079 billion yuan, and 5.165 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 249 million yuan, 341 million yuan, and 455 million yuan for 2024-2026, respectively [5] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 1.99 yuan, 2.73 yuan, and 3.65 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 45x, 33x, and 25x [5] Financial Ratios - Gross margin is expected to improve from 39.71% in 2023 to 45.29% in 2024, with net margin rising from -7.51% to 8.03% [11] - ROE is projected to increase from -2.88% in 2023 to 3.97% in 2024, and further to 6.63% by 2026 [11] - The company's asset turnover ratio is expected to improve from 0.32 in 2023 to 0.62 in 2026, indicating better operational efficiency [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company continues to experience high revenue growth, driven by the expansion of its product matrix and strong market demand for its artificial crystals and contact lenses [7]. - The company has successfully increased its production capacity through acquisitions and is expected to see improved profitability in the coming quarters [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.075 billion (up 60.94%), with a gross margin of 67.61% (down 13.90 percentage points). The net profit attributable to shareholders was 318 million (up 26.04%) [3]. - For Q3 alone, revenue reached 390 million (up 49.11%), with a net profit of 110 million (up 23.38%) [3]. Business Segments - The artificial crystal segment is benefiting from steady growth in sales volume, despite a slow growth rate in the cataract surgery market. The company’s products are gaining market share over imported brands [1]. - The contact lens business is expanding rapidly, with the company achieving full production capacity in its colored lens production line. The Tianyan factory has become profitable, while the Youkang subsidiary is expected to improve its profitability in Q4 or next year [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 1.449 billion, 1.976 billion, and 2.570 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 403 million, 535 million, and 698 million for the same years [8]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 2.13, 2.82, and 3.68 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 46, 34, and 26 [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Haida股份 (300320) [5][7] Core Views - Haida股份 achieved revenue of 2.35 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.09%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 117 million yuan, up 20.97% year-on-year [2] - Q3 revenue grew 23.92% year-on-year to 888 million yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing 26.29% to 39 million yuan [2] - The company's gross margin remained stable at 18.10% in the first three quarters of 2024, with a slight decline in Q3 gross margin to 17.09% [2] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with net operating cash flow of 128 million yuan in the first three quarters, up 69 million yuan year-on-year [3] Business Segments Automotive Sector - Automotive products revenue grew 48.36% in H1 2024, driving overall growth [2] - The company has secured orders for vibration reduction products from major automakers including Chery, GAC, and Geely [4] Photovoltaic Sector - The company signed a two-year agreement with LONGi to supply 8GW of new buckle products [4] - New combination frame designs improve anti-collision and anti-dust accumulation functions while reducing costs [4] Construction Sector - EPDM rubber sealing strips are gradually replacing PVC strips due to higher energy efficiency requirements [4] - Construction product revenue maintained stable growth despite pressure in the real estate sector [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 2.74 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.28 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 16.1% [8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 135 million yuan in 2023 to 236 million yuan in 2026 [8] - EPS is forecast to grow from 0.23 yuan in 2023 to 0.39 yuan in 2026 [8] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 41.76x in 2024 to 30.11x in 2026 [8] Valuation Metrics - Current market capitalization stands at 7.12 billion yuan [1] - The stock has gained 63.13% over the past 52 weeks [1] - 52-week trading range shows a high of 15.71 yuan and a low of 4.52 yuan [1] - The stock's 52-week P/E ratio ranged between 25.87x and 64.06x [1]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "增持" (Overweight) rating to JA Solar Technology (002459) [5] Core Views - JA Solar achieved a turnaround in Q3 2024, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 390 million yuan, a 199.61% increase QoQ [1] - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin in Q3 were 8.67% and 2.07% respectively, up 5.62 and 4.84 percentage points QoQ [2] - JA Solar shipped approximately 57GW of photovoltaic modules in the first three quarters of 2024, with overseas shipments accounting for 52.40% [2] - The company's N-type module shipments reached 13GW in Q3, accounting for 75% of total shipments [2] - JA Solar's latest N-type Bycium+ battery has achieved a mass production conversion efficiency of 26.5% [2] - The company launched its "Stellar" series of energy storage products, including Edge controller, SCADA, and Cloud platform [2] Financial Performance - JA Solar's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 54.348 billion yuan, down 9.39% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was -484 million yuan, a 107.16% decrease YoY [1] - Q3 revenue was 16.991 billion yuan, down 20.55% QoQ [1] - The company's revenue is expected to reach 76.419 billion yuan in 2024, 91.735 billion yuan in 2025, and 100.524 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be -271 million yuan in 2024, 3.733 billion yuan in 2025, and 4.727 billion yuan in 2026 [5] Technology and Innovation - JA Solar follows a "mass production generation, reserve generation, R&D generation" strategy [2] - The company is developing Hycium heterojunction solar cells with steadily improving conversion efficiency [2] - JA Solar is actively researching and reserving technologies including full back contact cells, perovskite cells, and tandem cells [2] Market Position - JA Solar's total market capitalization is 60.07065 billion yuan [3] - The company's 52-week stock price range is 8.96-24.94 yuan [3] - JA Solar's 52-week turnover rate is 505.21% [3]