电气设备 \ 证券研 2024. 10. 10 电气设备行业专题研究 虚拟电厂: 聚沙成塔, 灵活调控 2024 年 11 月 08 日 � � 海外虚拟电厂因地制宜,相较而言,国内市场机制逐渐明朗,但交易 規则等尚需完善。欧洲虚拟电厂模式主要集中于管理分布式能源，通 过形成有机整体，聚合参与电力市场和提供电力相关辅助服务；美国 虚拟电厂聚合的资源以可调节负荷为主,主要依赖于实时灵活响应需 求获得收益；而日本在输配电侧、用电侧、售电侧均有丰富的收益模 式。相对而言，国内仍处于"政策引导+市场补贴"的阶段，盈利模 型、交易细则、主体地位等尚需明确。 � 虚拟电厂的物理架构包括四层,即资源层、网络展、平台层和上级系 统,参与虚拟电厂的市场主体可以分为基础可控资源、系统平台（运 营商）和电力需求方。我们判断,"可控资源"和"调控技术"是虚 拟电厂的两大核心,因此平台技术提供方、资源聚合商(运营商)是 相较于原电力系统的增量主体。 【投资要点】 【配置建议】 【风险提示】 电改持续深化,虚拟电厂收益模式逐渐清晰。成熟的电力市场一般需 要同时具备电力现货市场、中长期市场,同时可提供完备的辅助服务。 2024年10月,我 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.17 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.37%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, up 33.47% year-on-year [1]. - The company benefits from the high demand in the Tibet region due to infrastructure and mining projects, with sales value in the region reaching 332 million yuan, a significant increase of 102.06% year-on-year [1][2]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements have been notable, with a decrease in expense ratio by 3.7 percentage points, helping maintain profit growth despite a slight decline in revenue for Q3 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 448 million yuan, down 4.29% year-on-year, while net profit was 56 million yuan, an increase of 11.46% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 26.91%, a decrease of 2.63 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 margin at 28.79%, down 1.91 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 121 million, 222 million, and 388 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 23.56%, 83.56%, and 74.97% [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in water conservancy and mining projects, with a projected investment growth rate of 37.1% in the water management sector [2]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 9.29 billion yuan, with a 52-week high of 34.19 yuan and a low of 10.05 yuan [4]. - The stock has seen a 52-week increase of 95.60% [4].

商贸零售行业专题研究 新消费板块24Q3总结:板块持续分化, 关注细分赛道和行业龙头机会 2024 年 11 月 08 日 消费板块 24Q3 基金持仓情况：2024Q3 基金消费行业基金仓位总体为 20.05%，环比提升 0.32pct，仍处于历史区间下沿。 美容护理：整体消费力承压较为明显，部分公司表现不同程度弱于此 前预期。考虑相关政策在三季度末开始推出,后续经济以及市场情绪 有望逐步向好,Q3财报表现的重要程度相对有限,若后续基本面好转 (外部经济环境/公司业务向好)则弹性较为充足,关注高赔率政策 弹性标的爱美客、贝泰妮,哑铃偏成长标的巨子生物、锦波生物、润 本股份、上美股份、丸美股份。 ◆ 零售:整体承压,个股业绩表现分化加剧。我们认为有三类企业值得 关注:1) 细分相对景气子赛道,包括 IP 消费、量贩零食赛道,推荐 泡泡玛特、万展集团;2)竞争格局稳定,行业龙头强者恒强,推荐 安克创新、小商品城、致欧科技；3）促消费政策持续落地，价格企 稳下,企业盈利能力预期较快改善,尤其是主动发起变革,优化自身 营运能力的企业。推荐永辉超市、家家悦、重庆百货、潮宏基、周大 生。 出行： Q3 酒店及免税业绩承 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the market (maintained) [7] Core Views - The report highlights the potential of copper paste as a cost-effective alternative to silver paste in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, with significant profit margins expected due to cost reductions of 20%-60% [4] - The adoption of copper paste is seen as a major trend in the metalization process, driven by the need to reduce costs amid declining silver prices and rising silver consumption [5] - The report recommends focusing on leading material companies such as **Polyrocks Materials**, **Deke Corporation**, and **Suzhou Good-Ark** due to their potential in the copper paste market [43] Summary by Sections Metalization Cost Reduction and Copper Paste Solution - Metalization cost reduction is urgent due to the rising cost of silver paste, which currently accounts for 31.97% of total battery production costs, slightly lower than silicon wafers at 44.22% [13] - Two main directions for cost reduction: 1) Process improvements to reduce silver paste usage (e.g., multi-busbar, busbar-free technologies), and 2) Substituting silver with cheaper conductive metals like copper [15] - Copper paste is considered the ideal solution for TOPCon metalization cost reduction, as it addresses issues like copper oxidation and sintering diffusion [22] Potential Application of Copper Paste in PV - A proposed application involves a double-layer structure using silver seed layers/points combined with copper paste, which reduces silver consumption to 2mg/w while maintaining battery conversion efficiency [3] - The double-layer structure uses silver paste for the seed layer/points to ensure good interface properties, while copper paste is applied above the silver layer for current collection and transmission [25] - Simulation results show that using double-sided silver seed points with copper paste can reduce energy loss by only 0.01mW/cm² compared to the baseline [30] Copper Paste Processing Fees and Profit Impact - Copper paste application can reduce costs by 20%-60%, with a median reduction of 40%, leading to a metalization cost of 4.2-4.8 cents/w [4] - The processing fee for copper paste is estimated at 3.9-4.4 cents/w, with a profit margin of 3.2-3.6 cents/w, significantly higher than silver paste [35] - Under baseline assumptions, the copper paste processing fee market is projected to reach 16.8 billion yuan by 2026, with leading companies potentially generating profits of 3.19-3.59 billion yuan [40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends **Polyrocks Materials** as a key player in the copper paste market, with a projected EPS of 3.78 yuan by 2026 and a "Hold" rating [44] - **Deke Corporation** and **Suzhou Good-Ark** are also highlighted as companies to watch, though they currently lack specific ratings [44]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [3][5] Core Views - The company's Q3 net loss narrowed by 572 million yuan compared to Q2, signaling a bottom in profitability [1] - With silicon material prices rebounding since August, the company's gross margin is expected to continue improving [1] - The company maintains a healthy financial position with no interest-bearing debt and ample cash reserves of 14.49 billion yuan [2] Business Performance - Q3 revenue was 1.421 billion yuan, down 60.01% YoY, with a net loss of 429 million yuan, a 162.27% YoY decrease but a 572 million yuan improvement from Q2 [1] - Q3 gross margin turned positive at 9.2%, up from -23.6% in Q2 [1] - Polysilicon production in Q3 was 43,600 tons (75.1% N-type), with sales of 42,100 tons (79.4% N-type) and a production-to-sales ratio of 96.6%, up 30.3 percentage points QoQ [1] - Unit cost increased 6.3% QoQ to 48.83 yuan/kg due to higher fixed costs from reduced production, while cash cost decreased 3.1% to 38.93 yuan/kg due to improved production efficiency [1] Financial Position - The company has no interest-bearing debt and holds 14.49 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, including 10.31 billion yuan in structured deposits and time deposits [2] - Total assets stood at 47.77 billion yuan as of Q3 2024, with current assets of 16.35 billion yuan and non-current assets of 31.42 billion yuan [7][8] Industry Outlook - New capacity additions in the silicon material industry have significantly slowed, with many companies maintaining low operating rates to adapt to market changes [2] - Profitability differences among companies are becoming more pronounced, with silicon material prices still in an L-shaped bottoming phase [2] Valuation and Forecast - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is 7.4/15.1/16.8 billion yuan, with net profit of -1.4/1.5/2.3 billion yuan [5] - EPS forecast for 2024-2026 is -0.67/0.71/1.09 yuan per share, with P/E ratios of -/44/29x [5] - EBITDA forecast for 2024-2026 is 875/5,018/6,303 million yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Haida股份 (300320) [5][7] Core Views - Haida股份 achieved revenue of 2.35 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.09%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 117 million yuan, up 20.97% year-on-year [2] - Q3 revenue grew 23.92% year-on-year to 888 million yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing 26.29% to 39 million yuan [2] - The company's gross margin remained stable at 18.10% in the first three quarters of 2024, with a slight decline in Q3 gross margin to 17.09% [2] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with net operating cash flow of 128 million yuan in the first three quarters, up 69 million yuan year-on-year [3] Business Segments Automotive Sector - Automotive products revenue grew 48.36% in H1 2024, driving overall growth [2] - The company has secured orders for vibration reduction products from major automakers including Chery, GAC, and Geely [4] Photovoltaic Sector - The company signed a two-year agreement with LONGi to supply 8GW of new buckle products [4] - New combination frame designs improve anti-collision and anti-dust accumulation functions while reducing costs [4] Construction Sector - EPDM rubber sealing strips are gradually replacing PVC strips due to higher energy efficiency requirements [4] - Construction product revenue maintained stable growth despite pressure in the real estate sector [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 2.74 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.28 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 16.1% [8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 135 million yuan in 2023 to 236 million yuan in 2026 [8] - EPS is forecast to grow from 0.23 yuan in 2023 to 0.39 yuan in 2026 [8] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 41.76x in 2024 to 30.11x in 2026 [8] Valuation Metrics - Current market capitalization stands at 7.12 billion yuan [1] - The stock has gained 63.13% over the past 52 weeks [1] - 52-week trading range shows a high of 15.71 yuan and a low of 4.52 yuan [1] - The stock's 52-week P/E ratio ranged between 25.87x and 64.06x [1]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "增持" (Overweight) rating to JA Solar Technology (002459) [5] Core Views - JA Solar achieved a turnaround in Q3 2024, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 390 million yuan, a 199.61% increase QoQ [1] - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin in Q3 were 8.67% and 2.07% respectively, up 5.62 and 4.84 percentage points QoQ [2] - JA Solar shipped approximately 57GW of photovoltaic modules in the first three quarters of 2024, with overseas shipments accounting for 52.40% [2] - The company's N-type module shipments reached 13GW in Q3, accounting for 75% of total shipments [2] - JA Solar's latest N-type Bycium+ battery has achieved a mass production conversion efficiency of 26.5% [2] - The company launched its "Stellar" series of energy storage products, including Edge controller, SCADA, and Cloud platform [2] Financial Performance - JA Solar's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 54.348 billion yuan, down 9.39% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was -484 million yuan, a 107.16% decrease YoY [1] - Q3 revenue was 16.991 billion yuan, down 20.55% QoQ [1] - The company's revenue is expected to reach 76.419 billion yuan in 2024, 91.735 billion yuan in 2025, and 100.524 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be -271 million yuan in 2024, 3.733 billion yuan in 2025, and 4.727 billion yuan in 2026 [5] Technology and Innovation - JA Solar follows a "mass production generation, reserve generation, R&D generation" strategy [2] - The company is developing Hycium heterojunction solar cells with steadily improving conversion efficiency [2] - JA Solar is actively researching and reserving technologies including full back contact cells, perovskite cells, and tandem cells [2] Market Position - JA Solar's total market capitalization is 60.07065 billion yuan [3] - The company's 52-week stock price range is 8.96-24.94 yuan [3] - JA Solar's 52-week turnover rate is 505.21% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company continues to experience high revenue growth, driven by the expansion of its product matrix and strong market demand for its artificial crystals and contact lenses [7]. - The company has successfully increased its production capacity through acquisitions and is expected to see improved profitability in the coming quarters [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.075 billion (up 60.94%), with a gross margin of 67.61% (down 13.90 percentage points). The net profit attributable to shareholders was 318 million (up 26.04%) [3]. - For Q3 alone, revenue reached 390 million (up 49.11%), with a net profit of 110 million (up 23.38%) [3]. Business Segments - The artificial crystal segment is benefiting from steady growth in sales volume, despite a slow growth rate in the cataract surgery market. The company’s products are gaining market share over imported brands [1]. - The contact lens business is expanding rapidly, with the company achieving full production capacity in its colored lens production line. The Tianyan factory has become profitable, while the Youkang subsidiary is expected to improve its profitability in Q4 or next year [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 1.449 billion, 1.976 billion, and 2.570 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 403 million, 535 million, and 698 million for the same years [8]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 2.13, 2.82, and 3.68 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 46, 34, and 26 [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "增持" (Overweight) rating to 华宝新能 (301327) [5] Core Views - 华宝新能's Q3 2024 net profit surged by 888.90% YoY, indicating a significant turnaround in operations [1] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 2.133 billion yuan, a 35.02% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 159 million yuan, up 357.06% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was 990 million yuan, a 50.41% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 87 million yuan, up 888.90% YoY [1] - The company's profitability improved significantly due to lower raw material costs, optimized inventory structure, and product quality enhancements, with gross margin rising to 45.17% in the first three quarters, up 5.86 percentage points YoY [1] Market Performance - In the US market, revenue grew by 41.12% YoY in the first three quarters, driven by high outdoor activity penetration and consumer preference for high-capacity products [2] - In the Japanese market, revenue increased by 72.69% YoY, benefiting from frequent natural disasters and strong demand for portable energy storage products [2] - The company's global channel network expanded, with brand website revenue growing by 61.81% YoY, and products now available in over 50 countries and regions [2] Product Innovation - The company's Solar Generator product line saw a 130% YoY revenue increase in the first three quarters, with new flagship products featuring innovative CTB module designs [2] - 华宝新能 introduced a groundbreaking all-scenario home green power solution, including the world's first DIY small home green power system and XBC photovoltaic tile system [2] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 3.094 billion yuan, 4.079 billion yuan, and 5.165 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 249 million yuan, 341 million yuan, and 455 million yuan for 2024-2026, respectively [5] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 1.99 yuan, 2.73 yuan, and 3.65 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 45x, 33x, and 25x [5] Financial Ratios - Gross margin is expected to improve from 39.71% in 2023 to 45.29% in 2024, with net margin rising from -7.51% to 8.03% [11] - ROE is projected to increase from -2.88% in 2023 to 3.97% in 2024, and further to 6.63% by 2026 [11] - The company's asset turnover ratio is expected to improve from 0.32 in 2023 to 0.62 in 2026, indicating better operational efficiency [11]

究 / 经工制造 / 证券研 板块分化明显，关注细分高景气赛道 轻工制造行业2024年三季报总结 2024 年 11 月 06 日 � � � � � 【配置建议】 【风险提示】 【投资要点】 地产复苏不及预期;消费信心不足;出口不确定性。 轻工制造板块跑输大盘,包装印刷、文娱和个护用品表现强势。2024Q3 轻工制造板块上涨 14.1%，同期沪深 300上涨 16.1%，板块走势跑输 大盘。分子板块看,家居用品、造纸、包装印刷、文娱用品、个护用 品分别上涨 14.1%、15.9%、16.4%、17.7%、17. 7%。 家居:业绩短期承压,政策端持续释放利好信号。202403 家居企业收 入同比个位数下滑、利润同比跌幅超 20%，经营压力凸显,系供给端 房屋竣工数据大幅下滑和需求瑞消费者购房意愿低迷所致。国家在 9 月陆续出台以旧换新政策,同时下调首付比例和解除一线城市限购政 策，刺激政策有望推动家居需求回暖,利好头部企业。 造纸:需求表现平淡,旺季有望带动量价恢复。需求疲软&新增供给 冲击下，2024Q3 销量和纸价均呈现下跌趋势，同时前期高价浆兑现到 报表中,纸企盈利阶段性承压。随着消费旺季来临,叠加成 ...