宏观专题 海外大选观察系列:美国大选进入白热 化阶段, 如何看摇摆州选情 2024 年 11 月 06 日 【策略观点】 10月初以来,民调及合约数据显示特朗普赢面持续扩大,进入11月 优势有所回调，7个摇摆州中的 5个特朗普同样领先。 截至 2024年 11 月 3 日,特朗普 RCP 综合 17 家全美平均民调支持率为 48.5%,领 先哈里斯 0.1个百分点,并在除密歇根州、威斯康星州外的5个摇摆 州中民调教据占优。 为什么要关注摇摆州?选举人团制度下,各州胜者赢家通吃,摇摆州 � 是在选举中可能"摇摆"至民主党或共和党候选人的州。由于它们有 潜力被任何候选人赢得,政治党派通常会在争取这些州上花费不成比 例的时间和竞选资源。赢家通吃的基础下,即使以微弱优势赢得某个 州的候选人也会获得该州的全部选举人票（仅缅因州、内布拉斯加州 政策略有不同),使得摇摆州成为各家焦点。2024年公认摇摆州为宾 西法尼亚州、密歇根州、威斯康星州、北卡罗来纳州、内华达州、亚 利桑那州以及佐治亚州。 ◆ 基于历史竞选结果及当前民调教据,特朗普在阳光带四州中奥备明显 优势,而哈里斯则在铁绣带的三个蓝州中占据上风。我们认为特朗普 赢 ...

帝尔激光（300776）深度研究 后N型时代激光设备大有可为,布局TGV 打造第二成长曲线 2024 年 11 月 05 日 【投资要点】 光伏激光设备先行者，后Ｎ型时代激光设备大有可为。 公司是国内首次将激光技术导入光伏太阳能电池应用的高新技 术企业,现有激光设备可应用于 PERC/TOPCon/IBC/HJT/钙钛矿等不同 技术路线光伏电池及组件生产制造,核心产品全球综合市占率第一。 PERC 时代:公司先后推出 PERC 激光消融、SE 激光掺杂等技术直 接推动了第二轮光伏产业升级,2018年PERC+SE 光伏电池激光设备全 球市占率超过 70%。 N 型时代:公司针对第三轮产业升级，先后推出 PTP 激光转印、 TCSE 激光掺杂、LIF 激光诱导烧结、BC 激光微刻蚀、组件激光封装 整线等多款关键新设备,其中 TSE/LIF 已逐步成为行业标配工艺,进 一步提升激光在 TOPCon 电池工艺的应用空间和价值量。 通过复盘和展望,我们梳理了从 BSF-PERC-TOPCon-BC-钙钛矿不 同时代电池制备环节中激光工艺的迭代,认为激光工艺已经成为光伏 电池制备重要环节。 BC 电池技术可能成为中期关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Crystal Optech (002273) [4] Core Views - Crystal Optech's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong revenue and profit growth [3] - The company's gross margin improved significantly, reaching 31.57% in the first three quarters of 2024, up 4.57 percentage points year-over-year [2] - AR glasses and automotive business are key drivers for long-term growth, with the company making breakthroughs in AR waveguide technology and expanding its AR-HUD business internationally [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 4.71 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 32.69% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 862 million yuan, up 96.77% year-over-year [3] - Q3 2024 revenue was 2.055 billion yuan, a 21.19% year-over-year increase and a 56.91% quarter-over-quarter increase [3] - Q3 2024 net profit was 435 million yuan, up 66.99% year-over-year and 75.30% quarter-over-quarter [3] Business Highlights - The company's gross margin improvement was driven by increased production efficiency, higher utilization rates, and cost control measures [2] - North American customers contributed significantly to growth, with new product sales increasing by 20% year-over-year in the first three weeks after launch [2] - Android customers, including Huawei and Samsung, are adopting periscope lenses, which are expected to become standard in flagship models [3] - The company's Vietnam factory has established a global manufacturing and delivery network, supporting expansion into the Korean market [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 6.55 billion yuan in 2024, 7.66 billion yuan in 2025, and 8.84 billion yuan in 2026 [9] - Net profit is forecasted to reach 1.05 billion yuan in 2024, 1.31 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.62 billion yuan in 2026 [9] - EPS is projected to be 0.76 yuan in 2024, 0.95 yuan in 2025, and 1.17 yuan in 2026 [9] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio is expected to be 28x in 2024, 22x in 2025, and 18x in 2026 [9] - The P/B ratio is forecasted to be 3.13x in 2024, 2.86x in 2025, and 2.60x in 2026 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company [5]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in gross margin, achieving 45.97% in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 5.84 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the gross margin reached 49.43%, up by 6.12 percentage points year-on-year and 5.27 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The company reported a revenue of 34.10 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing an 18.69% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.91 billion yuan, up 18.34% year-on-year [2]. - The domestic bidding for electric meters has accelerated, with the company winning significant contracts totaling 3.02 billion yuan and 1.20 billion yuan in the first two batches of 2024 from the State Grid [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 34.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.69%, and a net profit of 7.91 billion yuan, up 18.34% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 11.55 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.58 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 16.15% and 11.45% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 45.97%, with a notable increase in Q3 to 49.43% [1]. Cost Management - The company effectively controlled expenses, with a sales expense ratio of 8.56%, a management expense ratio of 3.95%, and a research and development expense ratio of 6.88% for the first three quarters. The sales expense ratio improved by 0.21 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Market Opportunities - The company is experiencing high demand overseas, with rapid revenue growth in Africa and Asia. The establishment of local production facilities in Europe and Africa is progressing well, which is expected to enhance market penetration [3]. - The introduction of new products, such as the "OrcaPro" solution and successful project deliveries in Asia, indicates a strong product development pipeline [3]. Future Projections - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company, estimating revenues of 51.89 billion yuan, 62.99 billion yuan, and 75.59 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.54%, 21.40%, and 20.00% [7][8]. - The projected net profit for the same years is 12.11 billion yuan, 14.74 billion yuan, and 17.82 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 23.23%, 21.74%, and 20.91% [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [3][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the company's strong performance in large-scale energy storage orders and improving profitability in its component business, suggesting a robust growth trajectory in the solar and storage sectors [6][12]. - The company reported a revenue of 34.178 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.63%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.955 billion yuan, down 31.17% year-on-year [5][6]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.22 billion yuan, a decline of 6.10% year-on-year, but the net profit of 716 million yuan showed a 21.99% decrease year-on-year, marking a continuous growth trend over three consecutive quarters [5][6]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company shipped 22.9 GW of solar modules from January to September 2024, a slight increase compared to the same period last year, with Q3 shipments reaching 8.4 GW, a 2.4% increase quarter-on-quarter [5][6]. - The North American market accounted for over 30% of Q3 shipments, indicating a shift towards higher-priced market segments [5][6]. Large-Scale Energy Storage - The large-scale energy storage segment experienced rapid growth, with shipments reaching 4.4 GWh from January to September 2024, and Q3 shipments of 1.8 GWh exceeded guidance [5][6]. - Both shipment volume and unit net profit in the energy storage sector hit record highs for a single quarter, reflecting strong demand and operational efficiency [5][6]. Financial Projections - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, estimating revenues of 49.3 billion yuan, 61.9 billion yuan, and 77.9 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 2.9 billion yuan, 4.8 billion yuan, and 5.7 billion yuan [6][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.78 yuan, 1.29 yuan, and 1.53 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 11, and 9 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [6][7]. Core Insights - The company's profitability signals have shown improvement, with expectations for gradual recovery in performance due to policy guidance and supply-side optimization in the photovoltaic industry [7]. - The company achieved a significant reduction in net loss in Q3, with a notable increase in gross margin, suggesting a potential stabilization in industry pricing [1][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company shipped 82.80 GW of silicon wafers, with external sales of 35.03 GW, representing a year-on-year decline of 4.22%. The company also sold 4.16 GW of monocrystalline batteries and 51.23 GW of modules, with a year-on-year increase of 17.70% in module shipments [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 585.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.73%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 65.05 billion yuan, down 155.62% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 200.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.87% year-on-year, but a sequential increase of 56.40% in net loss [3][7]. Profitability Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecast, estimating revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 858 billion yuan, 1,075 billion yuan, and 1,284 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -74 billion yuan, 35 billion yuan, and 67 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding EPS of -0.97, 0.47, and 0.89 yuan per share [7][8]. Capacity Expansion - The company currently has a production capacity of 1.5 GW for the second-generation HPBC batteries, with plans to expand to 50 GW by the end of 2025. The Hi-M09 module has seen successful market penetration across various regions, including China, Europe, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook despite recent losses [5]. Core Views - The company's first quarterly loss signals a potential industry bottom, with expectations for supply-side optimization and gradual recovery in prices due to reduced production and increased cold repairs [5]. - The company has a significant competitive advantage as a leading photovoltaic glass manufacturer, which is expected to enhance its profitability resilience during industry downturns [5]. Summary by Sections Operating Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 14.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.06%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.296 billion yuan, down 34.18%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 3.908 billion yuan, a decline of 37.03% year-on-year and 21.37% quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a net loss of 203 million yuan, marking the first quarterly loss since its listing [1]. Industry Profitability - As of now, the price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is 12.5 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 38% year-on-year decline, severely squeezing profitability across the industry [1]. Industry Capacity - According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, the industry added 1,200 tons/day of new capacity in H2 2024, while cold repairs accounted for 11,090 tons/day, resulting in a net capacity reduction of approximately 10,000 tons. Many small to medium-sized enterprises are accelerating cold repairs, with numerous new investment projects being announced as terminated or delayed [1]. Company Capacity - The company's current capacity is approximately 20,000 tons/day, with Zhuochuang Information reporting an operational capacity of 21,000 tons/day [1]. Company Advantages - The company has significant advantages in technology, cost, and management, with over 90% of its large kilns being of 1,000 tons or more, leading to lower energy consumption and improved yield rates. The breakthrough in technology for large kilns is expected to further reduce costs [2]. Profit Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecast, estimating revenues of 19.2 billion yuan, 28.5 billion yuan, and 36.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.2 billion yuan, 1.9 billion yuan, and 2.9 billion yuan for the same years, with EPS of 0.50, 0.82, and 1.26 yuan per share [5][6].

四方股份（601126）2024年三季报点评 《民营继保产品龙头，网内网外同步 增长》 业绩符合预期，毛利率环比改善 2024 年 11 月 05 日 【投资要点】 公司发布 2024年三季报。报告期内,实现营业收入 50.93 亿元,同 比+20.22%,实现归属于母公司净利润 6.09 亿元,同比+16.82%,实 现扣非后归属于母公司净利润 5.94 亿元，同比+14.56%; � 单 Q3 来看,实现营业收入 16.16 亿元，同比+18.21%，实现归母净利 润 1.86 亿元，同比+11.66%，实现扣非后归母净利润 1.85 亿元，同 比+13.33%。单Q3毛利率为 34.21%，环比Q2 提升 1.14pcts。 � 费用率方面,销售/管理费用準同比改善,研发方面,持续加大研发 投入。前三季度,销售费用率/管理费用率/研发费用率/财务费用率 分 别 为 6.97%4.46%/9.69%/-0.95%， 同 比 变 动 分 别 为 -1.04pcts/-0.06pcts/0.76pcts/0.01pcts。 � 现金流表现皮好。前三季度,经营活动产生的现金流量净额达 5.74 亿元，同比去年同 ...

建材行业专题研究 头部企业压力中表现更优,看好估值修 复+Q4价格弹性两条主线 2024 年 11 月 05 日 【投资要点】 受下游需求影响,建材板块整体业绩有压力。由于下游地产需求承压, 且部分地区基建资金到位情况有所滞后,2024年前三季度建材板块整 体业绩仍然存在一定压力。根据我们统计,2024年前三季度,建材板 块实现收入 4879.2 亿元,同比-11.8%,归母净利润 146.6 亿元,同 比-51.7%。如果分季度来看，2024Q3 单季度建材企业实现收入 1724.9 亿元,同比-8.8%;实现归母净利润64.0亿元,同比-30.5%,Q3单季 度利润降幅较 Q1 及 Q2 有所缩窄。 � 水泥板块：Q3 整体延续下降趋势，头部企业价格成本把控能力更优。 2024年前三季度,水泥需求同比-10.7%,高标水泥平均价格同比降低 28 元/吨左右。2024 年前三季度，上市水泥产业链企业实现收入 2917.55 亿元,同比-16.46%,实现归母净利润 30.22 亿元,同比 -76.08%。其中 Q3 实现收入 1065.55 亿元，同比-9.20%，实现归母净 利润 34. 23 亿元,同比 ...

电子设备行业专题研究 电子行业2024年三季报总结： 自主可控向先进工艺推进,AI创新带动 产业持续升级 2024 年 11 月 05 日 【投资要点】 2024 年前三季度,电子行业整体业绩提升。电子行业上市公司 2024 年前三季度营业总收入和归母净利润分别为24335. 33亿元和1035. 99 亿元,同比分别增长 15.47%和 27.55%。电子行业为 2403 公募基金第 一大重仓板块。根据公募基金 2024 年三季报，公募 A 股和港股持仓 市值为 34234 亿元,其中电子公司市值为 4219 亿元,占比为 12.3%, 在 31 个申万行业当中排名第 1，超配比例为 4.7%。24Q3 公募基金增 持海光信息、传音控股、华海清科、中芯国际、芯源微等,减持工业 富联、澜起科技、鹏鼎控股、兆易创新和三安光电等。2024年 1-10 月，申万电子指数上涨 19.0%，同期沪深 300 指数上涨 13.4%，电子 行业在全行业中涨跌幅排名为5/31,其中元件板块涨幅最高,涨幅为 30.7%。当前电子行业估值处于 2016年1月以来 85.1%分位水平, 裁 至 2024 年 10 月 31 日， ...