Industry and Company Key Points **1. Information Services Sector**: * The Information Services sector saw an average increase of +1% this week and +11% YTD. * Top movers included MCO (+3%), SPGI (+3%), CSGP (+2%), CLVT (+2%), and FDS (+2%). * Investors had mixed views on credit bureaus, with slightly negative feedback on EFX and TRU and more positive feedback on EXPN. * FactSet consensus estimates for 2025 mortgage revenue and EBITDA margin at EFX and TRU were considered overly elevated. **2. CoStar Group (CSGP, Buy)**: * Homes.com online traffic accelerated in y/y growth over the past three months, surpassing traffic growth at Zillow. * CSGP's residential revenue is expected to increase from $46mn in 2023 to $300mn+ by 2026, representing an 85%+ 3-year CAGR. * CSGP's residential business is expected to drive robust earnings growth and valuation upside, with EBITDA margins expanding from 8% in 2024 to 27% in 2026 and 40% over the medium-term. **3. Bright Horizons Family Solutions (BFAM, Buy)**: * Kastle swipe data shows an ongoing recovery in return-to-office, which is positive for BFAM's child care center occupancy rates. * BFAM's child care center occupancy rates are expected to increase from low-60s in 2024 to ~65% in 2025 and ~70% in 2026. * BFAM's NTM P/E multiple of 27x based on FactSet consensus compares favorably to the 10-year average of 34x. **4. KinderCare (KLC, Buy)**: * Kastle swipe data shows an ongoing recovery in return-to-office, which is positive for KLC's child care center occupancy rates. * KLC's child care center occupancy rates are expected to increase from 69% in 2024 to ~70% in 2025 and ~71% in 2026. * KLC's valuation upside is leveraged to its differentiated focus on community-based centers and targeting of customers across all income demographics. **5. Robert Half (RHI)**: * Investors expressed cautious sentiment on RHI due to risks from AI and the impact on revenue. * There is a high probability that RHI will not achieve FactSet consensus EPS expectations of $4/shr by 2026. **6. Korn Ferry (KFY)**: * Investors expressed positive sentiment on KFY, given its insulation from AI risks with its focus on recruiting for executive roles. * KFY's 8% sell-off in response to F2Q earnings earlier this month presents an attractive buying opportunity. **7. Staffing Industry**: * The Staffing industry saw an average increase of +1% this week and +13% YTD. * Top movers included NATL (+10%), BV (+3%), KFY (+3%), BFAM (+2%), and VSTS (-4%). * Staffing revenue demonstrated signs of stability, including positive growth in exec search and narrowing y/y declines in RPO and professional search & interim. **8. Business Services**: * The Business Services sector saw an average increase of +1% this week and +13% YTD. * Top movers included NATL (+10%), BV (+3%), KFY (+3%), BFAM (+2%), and VSTS (-4%). * Investors had negative feedback on RHI and positive feedback on KFY. **9. Diversified Business Services**: * The Diversified Business Services sector saw an average increase of +1% this week and +13% YTD. * Top movers included NATL (+10%), BV (+3%), KFY (+3%), BFAM (+2%), and VSTS (-4%). * Investors had negative feedback on RHI and positive feedback on KFY. **10. Macro Developments**: * The Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 104.7 in December from 112.8 in November. * Initial jobless claims decreased to 219k for the week ending 12/21 from 220k the prior week. * The tightening labor market is incrementally positive for temp staffers MAN and RHI.

Company and Industry Overview * **Company**: NIO Inc. (NIO/9866.HK) * **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) and New Energy Vehicle (NEV) industry in China * **Research Firm**: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Key Points and Arguments * **New Product Cycle**: NIO is entering a new product cycle in 2025E-26E with the launch of two new Onvo models and facelift versions of existing NIO models. * **Volume Targets**: Management is confident of achieving 30k units of delivery in Dec 2024, with a target of 100% yoy volume growth in 2025E driven by Onvo and NIO facelift models. * **Operational Efficiency**: The company aims to improve operational efficiency and ensure smooth production and delivery of upcoming new models, learning from the lower-than-expected sales performance of NT2.0 products. * **Market Competition**: Management believes the Chinese passenger vehicle industry will remain fragmented, especially in the premium segment, due to diverse consumer needs and a large market size. * **Battery Swapping Stations**: NIO plans to expand its battery swapping network, aiming to have 3,000 stations by end-2024, up from 2,800 as of Dec 16, 2024. * **Financial Performance**: Management expects sequentially improving vehicle gross margin in 4Q24, with close to 15% for the Nio brand and approx. 5% for the Onvo brand. * **Rating**: Goldman Sachs has a Sell rating on NIO with a 12m DCF-based (WACC 11.8%, TGR 3.5%) target price of US$3.9/HK$30 on the ADR/H share. Additional Important Content * **Onvo Brand**: The Onvo brand will launch a 6/7-seat SUV benchmarking Li Auto L8 in 2H25E, followed by a 5-seat SUV benchmarking Li Auto L7. * **Firefly Brand**: The Firefly brand, focused on the small-size vehicle market, started presales of the firefly model at Rmb148.8k on Dec 21, 2024. * **ADAS**: NIO's ADAS team announced a series of organizational adjustment plans, with Mr. Shaoqing Ren leading the large model department to accelerate the delivery pace of the "end-to-end" model. * **M&A Rank**: NIO has a M&A rank of 3, indicating a low probability (0%-15%) of being acquired. * **Investment Thesis**: Goldman Sachs expects lukewarm order momentum, slow production ramp-up, and intensifying price competition to be downside catalysts for NIO's stock price.

Key Points Industry or Company Involved - **Municipal bond funds** in the United States Core Views and Arguments - **Net outflows** from municipal bond funds for the third consecutive week, totaling $878 million for the week ending December 25, 2024. - **Outflows driven by open-end funds** (-$1.0 billion), with significant outflows across Investment Grade (-$465 million), High Yield (-$414 million), and Long Duration (Long Term funds lost $747 million). - **ETFs posted modest inflows** of $160 million. - **Duration** was a key factor, with Long Term funds seeing the majority of outflows. - **Credit quality** also played a role, with Investment Grade funds experiencing the largest outflows. - **State-focused funds** saw negative flows, particularly in New York and California. Other Important Content - **YTD inflows** are now tracking slightly lower at +$40.5 billion (+$26.6 billion open-end funds/+$13.9 billion ETFs). - **HY municipal funds** have attracted 13% of their aggregate assets under management (AUM) from the beginning of the year, compared to just 3% for IG fund inflows relative to their AUM at the year's start. - **Market valuations** are calculated as the difference between the change in reported AUM and the week's reported fund flows. - **LSEG Lipper Global Fund Flows** data is used for analysis. References - [15] - [19] - [26] - [27] - [32]

Asia Pacific Equity Research 26 December 2024 J P M O R G A N We revise down our 1Q25 estimates for AVC to factor in the delayed shipment schedule of GB200 components. Our new estimates suggest 5% QoQ decline in 1Q25 (vs. Bloomberg consensus of +2% QoQ rev in 1Q25), given a smaller contribution liquid cooling products, as we now assume more meaningful shipments of GB200 components will be delayed at least until late 1Q25 (component-level schedule). For 2H25 and 2026, we remain positive and keep our estimate ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 26 December 2024 See page 4 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Important Disclosures Th ...

Exhibit 6: ChiNext turnover (scaled to 0-100% based on the percentage away from its high and low levels since January 2014) vs. CSI 300 Exhibit 7: Equity futures turnover (vs. three months ago; scaled to 0-100% based on the percentage away from its high and low 300 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mar-14Oct-14May-15Dec-15Jul-16Feb-17Sep-17Apr-18Nov-18Jun-19Jan-20Aug-20Mar-21Oct-21May-22Dec-22Jul-23Feb-24Sep-24 RSI-30D* CSI300 (RHS) -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Mar-14Sep-14Mar-15Sep-15Ma ...

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策略周末谈 - 逢低增配，不必切换 20241229 • 小盘股在 2025 年仍将持续占优，近期回调是配置良机。 Q&A 我们依然维持月初以来的观点，认为小盘股将在 2025 年持续占优。尽管近期小 盘股出现阶段性回调，但这实际上提供了一个增加配置的窗口。我们分析了三个 核心原因导致近期小盘股走弱：第一是国 9 条即将实施，对小盘风格形成潜在制 约；第二是国内流动性释放推迟；第三是险资对价值股增配。然而，这些因素影 响仅限于短期，中长期看影响有限。目前来看，小盘股的下一次行情可能已经蓄 势待发。 国 9 条退市新规即将生效，引发了市场对小盘股的恐慌情绪，导致其下跌。交易 类规范类退市条件已经生效，但预计不会产生明显冲击，影响较大的是财务类退 市风险警示。新增利润总额作为考察项，并且主板营收要求从 1 亿元提高到 3 亿元，这些变化使得相关公司面临更严格的监管。然而，从前三季度业绩可以参 考整体风险范围可控。据测算，2024 年全年营收不超过 1 亿元有退市风险的小 公司有 31 家，主板营收 1-3 亿有退市风险公司 74 家，总计约 100 家公司受新规 影响，相对有限。 降准政策大概率只是推迟，而非改变 ...

• 红利资产近期表现优异，主要源于年底保险资金配置需求增加、政策真空 期机构投资者影响力上升以及市场风险偏好谨慎等因素。 • 低利率环境下，险资寻求高分红低波动的红利资产进行配置，推动红利资 产价格上涨。10 年期国债收益率跌破 2%，凸显低利率环境的严峻性。 • 政策节奏方面，年底政策分析机构对市场定价能力增强，更青睐红利资产； 但长期来看，2025 年红利资产将仅有绝对收益，缺乏相对收益。 • DD 模型预测红利风格相对优势最多持续到 2025 年 3 月，之后成长风格将 重新占优，这与政策方向转变、风险偏好提升预期有关。 • 2025 年市场变化主要受政策密度、特朗普上任后的表态以及低利率环境 下投资方式转变等因素影响。 • 建议将红利资产作为底仓配置，关注长期价值，并更多关注成长风格，尤 其是在科技成长、消费、地产、新能源等领域。 • 《新国九条》强化现金分红监管，提升了业绩稳定、分红能力强的央国企 红利股的长期投资价值，建议关注高股息优化策略。 近期红利资产为何占优？未来红利资产的行情能否持续？ 模型分析，我们认为红利风格相对优势最多持续到 2025 年 3 月，此后成长风格 将重新占优。 我们认为 ...

2025 年，周期如何看 20241229 • 2025 年航空板块供需紧张，需求将超过供给 3 个百分点以上，三大航有 望进入盈利周期，2026-2027 年进入涨价周期。 • 『一带一路』倡议下，中国对外开放程度提升，建议关注与相关国家关联 度高的公司，例如嘉瑞国际。 • 十年国债利率稳中向下，利好红利长周期板块，推荐关注公路、港口、以 及高股息率且业绩恢复良好的公司，如苏美达、厦门象屿等。 • 2024 年化工行业价格持续回落，利润下降，但 2025 年出口压力增大，但 政策预期加码，内需有望回升，看好维生素、凝胶短纤、改性塑料等子行 业。 • 2024 年化工行业洗牌完成，开工率高，库存水平佳，2025 年盈利有望修 复，推荐关注三友化工、ST 众泰、同坤股份、新凤鸣、金发科技、汇通 国恩等。 • 2025 年金属行业温和向上，关注战略矿产资源（稀土、钨等）和传统顺 周期金属（铝、铜、钢等），铝的供需格局最为有利。 • 煤炭板块兼具周期性和红利属性，2025 年仍具备投资机会，建议关注中 国神华和陕西煤业等龙头企业。 2025 年航空板块的供需情况如何？ 对于"一带一路"倡议下外需市场的发展预期如何？ ...