29 Oct 2024 10:48:55 ET │ 9 pages V i e w p o i n t | Global Metals & Mining Implied scrap use in steel in China decreasing in Sep'24 (-2%y/y), +1.3%y/y YTD continues to be tailwind for iron ore CITI'S TAKE One of the reasons for the strong iron ore import demand in China (+7%y/y in FY'23), despite weak steel production, had been the reduced use of scrap in steel making. Implied scrap use (crude steel-pig iron production) was only 148mn tonnes in China in FY'23; lowest level since 2016. We are assuming scra ...

31 Oct 2024 10:20:09 ET │ 8 pages China Materials 2024 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #125– Funding Availability Rate Data Tracker CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency, onground demand trends in China – market expectation of demand recovery has been mostly cautious. We have shifted our near-term pecking order to Gold, Cement, Coal, Copper, Aluminum and Steel stocks (see our note: China Materials – 2024 Strategy: Diverging Demand, Selective Winners, China Materials ...

Flash | 30 Oct 2024 10:24:48 ET │ 11 pages BOE Technology (000725.SZ) 3Q24 First Take: GM flat QoQ; NP Missed Partly on Inventory Write-off and Forex CITI'S TAKE BOE released 3Q24 results on 10 Oct. 3Q24 rev came in at Rmb50.3bn (+6% QoQ and +9% YoY), in-line with CitiE but missed BBGe by 8%. GM flattish QoQ at 16.7%, behind CitiE by 1.0pt. OP came in at Rmb2.6bn (-1% QoQ) with OPM of 5.1% (-0.4pts QoQ), missed CitiE OP by 19% and OPM by 1.2pt. Given higher-than-expected assets write-off of Rmb1.8bn and for ...

Summary of China Auto Manufacturers Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Auto Manufacturers** industry, specifically analyzing the performance of **Electric Vehicles (EVs)** and **Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)** vehicles during the week of October 21-27, 2024 [1][7]. Key Insights - **Weekly Sales Performance**: - Full EV sector sales increased by **6% week-over-week (WoW)**, slightly surpassing forecasts. Month-to-date (MTD) sales showed a **7% month-over-month (MoM)** increase, indicating strong momentum [1]. - Projected total EV sales for October are estimated at **1.175 million units**, reflecting a **6.3% MoM** increase, which is ahead of the consensus expectation of **0-4% MoM** [1]. - The overall passenger vehicle (PV) sector, including both ICE and NEV, is tracking at **2.235 million units** for October, representing a **5.8% MoM** and **18.5% year-over-year (YoY)** increase [1]. - **Sales by Vehicle Type**: - ICE vehicles showed a **10% MoM** increase. - Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) sales increased by **6% MoM**. - Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) sales rose by **12% MoM**. - Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREV) underperformed with a **-2%** change [1]. - **NEV Sales Penetration**: - NEV sales penetration for the last two weeks was **55.1%** and **55.4%**, compared to **46.2%** and **50.2%** in the first two weeks of October [1]. - **BYD Performance**: - BYD's weekly sales for the period were reported at **7% WoW** and **9% MTD MoM**, indicating solid performance within the sector [1]. Market Share Trends - **Japanese Brands**: - Notable declines in market share for major brands: - Toyota down **1.2 percentage points (ppt)** YoY to **7.0%**. - Honda down **1.8 ppt** YoY to **3.8%**. - Nissan down **0.2 ppt** YoY to **2.8%** [2]. - **German Brands**: - VW down **1.1 ppt** YoY to **9.5%**. - Audi down **0.3 ppt** YoY to **2.9%**. - Brilliance BMW down **0.7 ppt** YoY to **2.8%** [2]. - **US Brands**: - SAIC GM down **1.8 ppt** YoY to **2.5%**. - Changan Ford down **0.2 ppt** YoY to **0.5%** [2]. - **Korean Brands**: - Overall market share decline of **0.5 ppt** YoY to **1.0%** [2]. Analyst Commentary - Analysts express a cautious outlook for the upcoming months, anticipating a seasonal rally in November and December, particularly for European auto manufacturers [3]. Additional Insights - The report includes various figures and charts illustrating sales trends, market share changes, and valuation comparisons among different manufacturers [8][10][11]. - The data indicates a competitive landscape with significant shifts in market share among traditional and new entrants in the EV space [2][3]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance metrics, market share dynamics, and analyst perspectives within the China auto manufacturing sector.

Action | 31 Oct 2024 12:03:43 ET │ 10 pages Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SS) Removing Upside 30-Day Catalyst Watch View original report on this Catalyst Watch We believe the miss in 3Q24 results could lead to short-term profit-taking pressure on the stock, and thus remove the positive catalyst watch. | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|------------------------| | | | | Buy | | | Price (31 Oct 24 15:00) | Rmb7.630 | | Target price | Rmb10.960 | | Expected share price return | 43.6% | | | | ...

各位上午好,今天是10月30号,欢迎来到摩根史丹利每周三的这个周期论剑的在线直播,我是张蕾,Rachel技术传喊的分析师。今天的话呢,我们讨论三个主题,一个呢就是我们金融行业的首席居然会聊一下他们最近刚在国内调研,聊聊他们调研的收获。 然后我会聊一下最近正好我在海外露营欧洲、澳洲还有美国露营回来的一个反馈以及最近就是大家问的比较多的问题然后最后的话请我们的保险行业的分析师Rick聊一下友邦的区域扩展情况以及中国的保险业的更新 开始前我先例行读一个disclaimer请注意本次会议顶面项目更是单一的机构客户以及财务顾问本会议不对媒体开放如果您来自媒体的话请退出会议另外提示一下大家在整个会议的过程中您可以随时在屏幕上面发送您的问题不需要等到最后这样我们可以继续一点Q&A的等待时间好 我也不多说了把时间先交给Richard 好的 感谢Rachel上周我们也去浙江地区包括杭州和宁波做了非常深入的一个调研除了跟当地的银行做交流也跟多个区市的财政厅以及杭州发改委还有一些这种 包括当地的金融监管也做了比较详细的一个交流那我们这个结论呢其实还是取决于跟我们一贯的这个最近的分析差太多我们认为呢这个政策转向呢可能还是要看数字和历 ...

本期是第71期面对美国大选中东地缘局势紧张的局面A5风格快速沦重 投资机会也是超纵即逝投资难度很大在这个眼花缭乱的市场转换中呢我们就突然密到了一丝这个军工行业的投资机会因此呢本次也是特别邀请到我司军工首席李陶洋老师来分享军工行业的最新投资展望希望大家能够抓住这个机会实现一波财富的增长李陶洋老师呢是军工与新材料团队的首席分析师北京大学硕士 2015-2017年新财富水晶球万德军工行业第一名团队核心成员2018-2022年水晶球军工行业上榜2018-2020年万德军工行业第一名2019-2022年金牛奖最佳军工行业分析师团队2018-2022年新财富军工行业上榜入围投资有风险入市需谨慎话不多说请李老师开始分享 好的各位投资者大家下午好我今天主要跟大家讲讲近期我们对于行业的判断和当前整个市场背景下军工行业未来的投资机会的展望从整个市场来看其实最近的行情表现还是不错的特别是9月24日之后整个的市场的基本面包括资金面都有更加积极的变化 成长板块过去一个月表现也非常的抢眼特别是半导体、计算机和竞工这三个牺牲领域的表现在成长板块里面是更为突出的从整个节奏来看竞工板块是最近两周开始接力计算机和半导体开始上档那么从九月底的位置 ...

关于赛力斯人形机器人业务，早期的时候几个院士、重庆大学和两 江新区政府在撮合这个事情，赛力斯下面有个科技公司后来承接了 这个任务。赛力斯目前资金实力不错，政府也给了很多研发补助。 需要机器人的场景包括园区工厂还有很多政府场景。我们规划了包 括人形机器人和机器狗。目前，买了个基于英伟达 Orin、可以快速 原型验证的平台，团队已有一百多人，现在整体参与项目的有大概 200 多人，目前整个项目已经点亮，还邀请了微软研究院 AI 团队的 原成员张博士来牵头这个团队。目标明年底量产。 赛力斯机器人是与华为汽车 BU 合作？ 华为有专门的机器人公司「极目机器人」。 华为在机器人行业的定位或者战略是什么？华为制造机器人的战略 是否与汽车相同？ 目前来看，对于华为消费者 BG 来说，包括电风扇、空调、电视机等 实际上都是外部制作。模式是跟很多家基于鸿蒙系统合作，给鸿蒙 系统去开发机器人操作系统，类似于 ROS。基于模拟搭建操作系统， 基于华为的深层芯片搭建控制器方案，逻辑非常相似。这对华为来 说利益最大化。华为最终想要卖芯片与系统，这与英伟达是一个逻 辑。更直白地表达，实际上扮演了售卖铲子的角色。 余承东是负责汽车 BU， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the real estate market and related fiscal policies, indicating that there will be no return to the previous real estate bubble [6]. Core Insights - Current economic policies are unlikely to shift significantly, with the government primarily using increased debt issuance and interest rate cuts to mitigate pressures from the real estate downturn [2][6]. - Local governments face challenges in infrastructure construction and debt management, including declining project returns and a significant drop in land sale revenues from 8.5 trillion in 2021 to 2.2 trillion this year [3]. - Special local bonds are being allocated more to developed regions to expedite existing projects, with relaxed return requirements to stimulate infrastructure investment [4]. - Industrial investment growth has slowed, primarily due to reduced bank loan guidance and tax subsidy investigations, highlighting an issue of overcapacity rather than insufficient demand [5]. - The real estate market is expected to remain cautious, with inventory in first-tier cities gradually improving by the third quarter of next year [6]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes improving the efficiency of existing loans rather than pushing for increased loan growth, particularly affecting small and micro enterprises [7]. Summary by Sections Economic Policy and Trends - The likelihood of a significant policy shift is low, with government debt issuance increasing from 4 trillion to 9.2 trillion this year and cumulative interest rate cuts of 195 basis points [2]. - Local governments are strictly controlling new debt, especially for low-quality projects, and enhancing oversight through audits [2]. Infrastructure and Debt Management - Local governments are facing challenges such as declining project returns and a significant drop in land sale revenues, which have impacted local finances [3]. - The issuance of special local bonds has been more focused on developed areas to support existing projects, leading to a slight recovery in infrastructure investment [4]. Industrial Investment - Industrial investment growth has slowed from an initial 9% at the beginning of the year, primarily due to reduced bank loan guidance and tax subsidy investigations [5]. - The current situation indicates a greater issue of overcapacity compared to demand insufficiency, necessitating adjustments in financial support [5]. Real Estate Market Outlook - The real estate market and related fiscal policies are expected to remain cautious, with inventory levels in first-tier cities improving gradually [6]. - Governments will continue to use special bonds to support the market without inflating the real estate bubble [6]. Banking and Financial Guidance - The People's Bank of China is focusing on enhancing the efficiency of existing loans rather than increasing loan growth, which has implications for small and micro enterprises [7]. - This shift in guidance is expected to create short-term economic pressure but aims for higher quality and efficiency in the long run [7].

好的各位投资者大家下午好那么感谢大家在这样一个周日的下午接受到我们的电话会议那么这个我是开源证券地产建筑首席提供那么这个也是大家老朋友了那废话不多说我们今天主要汇报的主题还是关于地产的政策因为大家也知道那么在对于房地产板块的投资之中的话政策是这个最重要的变量那么在过去两年因为行业基本面的一个持续的 这个下下走啊所以说在这种情况下啊政策就显得更加重要因为从对面出发的话基本寻找不到什么比较合适的买点而政策催化带来的短期的啊这样的一个这个市场的关注啊以及政策催化的这样的一个预期的改善那么会带来阶段性的波段机会啊 但是我们觉得从今年这一次的政治局会议之后的话还是出现了一个非常大的一个基本面的变化所以我们今天这个第二会议的题目叫做 渐行渐进看好反转我们觉得往中央企来看我们觉得当前是基产行业整体来看过去三到四年的一个比较大的一个我们觉得是一个比较大的一个修正那么整个的基本面当前会出现一个比较明确的触及的反转那么这个是我们当前对于行业基本面和政策的一个看法 那么为什么我们会做出这样的一个判断核心就来自于我们可以看到当前我们这一轮的政策不再是像过去我们的政策那么的孤立那么大家也看到了从以往比如说2022年或者2023年我们去 ...