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策略周末谈 - 化债新周期,盈利新起点
-· 2024-11-03 17:15
方证策略组的分析师许佳琪那么我今天呢来汇报一下我们关于三季报的这个一个观点整体上呢我们看到三季报落地下来但是近期的市场呢和以往的业绩披露期有点不同以往的业绩披露期呢市场会定价优秀的企业的业绩但是呢第四呢市场更多定价的是企业的困境缓转预期那么我们说近期呢可能炒小炒烂的这个风格可能 要好于去炒这个一些既有股的这个风格那么我们可以说市场目前呢仍然是处于重预期清线时的这样的一个阶段那么我们认为呢在政策尚未对企业盈利形成实际改善的这个窗口期之内呢重预期清线时的格局会继续持续但是清线时并非意味着完全不看现实 当预期偏离现实太远的时候呢估值的力量将重新驱动市场定价现实当前呢我们说基本面反转的这个预期呢已经有所定价而既有股的这些既有的这些大残公司呢相对来说是低估的啊我们说可能在短期震荡的这个格局之内的市场风格可能随时会发生切换随时有可能会切换到这个呃 定价优质公司优质业绩的这么一个过程当中去啊那么回到三级报呢我们的主要结论呢如下第一呢是A股总体的三级报的营收同比增速呢继续回落但是盈利的同比增速收窄降幅收窄呃我们看到呢A股整体三级报的营收同比增速呢是-0.88中报是-0.54啊非金融的营收同比增速呢是-1.68中报呢是-0.6 ...
电力设备-国内外需求共振,持续高景气
-· 2024-11-03 17:15
对于电力设备的观点那么两个部分一个是基于因为三级报已经披露完了我们看到一些产业的趋势总结一下和各位做一个沟通第二个方面是这周这周有一部分公司也披露了财报那么我们想就这周披露财报的部分公司和各位做一个更加细致的拆解以及我们近期的一个观点首先第一个部分就是 先快速的过一下我们前三季度整个电力设备板块的一个情况收入整体来看电力设备板块整体的收入是同比增长了4%如果分板块来看的话硬件类的收入同比增长了3%软件类的收入同比增长了8%规模净利润的话整个电力设备板块同比降了10% 那么硬件类的是降了12%软件类降了4%是这样的一个情况从成长性前三季度的一个情况盈利水平毛利率基本维持稳定整个一个电力设备板块毛利率同比降了一个点硬件类的毛利率降了有1.3个点软件类的毛利率同比去年是持平的期间费率的话基本稳定 整个电力设备板块同比增长了0.6个百分点其中硬件类呢增长了0.5个百分点软件类呢增长了0.7个百分点这个是我们快速的过一下前三季度电力设备板块的数据下面讲的具体的 整个产业的趋势我们看到前三季度基于财报和各位做一个沟通首先在特高压以及超高压的交付方面首先是直流的特高压前三季度直流特高压的换流阀和控制保护系统基本没有交付那么 ...
Sungrow Power Supply (.SZ)_ 3Q24 Profit Miss for Short-Term Items; Long-Term High Growth Persists
-· 2024-11-03 17:15
A c t i o n | 31 Oct 2024 12:55:52 ET │ 17 pages Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) 3Q24 Profit Miss for Short-Term Items; Long-Term High Growth Persists CITI'S TAKE Sungrow's net profit -8.0% yoy to Rmb2,641m in 3Q24, but we are not very concerned about this earnings miss dragged by such short-term issues as forex loss, more freight costs and geographical sales mix change. It should have high growth in 2025E amid global inverter and energy storage system ('ESS') demand to add 15-20% and 50% yoy, respectively ...
Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK)_ 3Q sales recovery on track; Acquiring an A-share platform
-· 2024-11-03 17:15
31 October 2024 | 7:37AM HKT 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK): 3Q sales recovery on track; Acquiring an A-share platform 3Q sales recovery on track: Sino Biopharm reported 3Q sales of Rmb5.47bn (+14.3% y/y vs. +11.9% in 1H), a growth rate on par vs. Hengrui's 13% and Fosun Pharma's 12%, and faster vs. 1H due to the lower base in 3Q23 when there was an anti-corruption probe. We believe new products, e.g. biosimilars / long-acting G-CSF, were the key drivers. 3Q core earnings ...
YTO Express (.SS)_ 3Q24 Inline; Bottom-line Saved by Tax Reduction under More Aggressive Market Share Acquisition
-· 2024-11-03 17:15
A c t i o n | 30 Oct 2024 12:10:11 ET │ 14 pages YTO Express (600233.SS) 3Q24 Inline; Bottom-line Saved by Tax Reduction under More Aggressive Market Share Acquisition CITI'S TAKE YTO reported 3Q24 results largely in-line at RMB943mn, 18.1%YoY, accounting for 22% of CitiE/consensus's full-year estimates. YTO was more aggressive than expected in competition in slow season. The ASP dipped 6%YoY in exchange of 28%YoY parcel volume growth, outpacing industry to gain 1.2pp market share. Though core cost and unit ...
Mindray (.SZ)_ Earnings Review_ 3Q24 results miss on domestic demand pressure; eyes on trade-in; Buy
-· 2024-11-03 17:15
Summary of Mindray (300760.SZ) Earnings Review for 3Q24 Company Overview - **Company**: Mindray (300760.SZ) - **Industry**: Medical Technology (Medtech) Device Manufacturing - **Focus Areas**: Patient Monitoring Systems, Medical Imaging, In Vitro Diagnostics (IVD) Key Financial Results - **3Q24 Earnings**: Rmb3.1 billion, a decrease of 9.3% year-over-year (y/y) and 21.6% below Goldman Sachs estimates (GSe) [2][3] - **3Q24 Revenue**: Rmb9.0 billion, an increase of 1.4% y/y but 11.2% below GSe [2] - **Domestic Revenue**: Decreased by 9.7% y/y in 3Q24; if excluding APT Medical consolidation, the decrease is 19.5% y/y [2] - **Revenue Breakdown**: - **PMLS (Patient Monitoring and Life Support)**: -49% y/y - **Medical Imaging**: -10% y/y - **IVD**: +1% y/y - **Overseas Revenue Growth**: Increased by 18.3% y/y in 3Q24, driven by regions such as Asia, Europe, and Latin America [2] Segment Performance - **Domestic Segments**: - **PMLS**: Revenue decreased significantly by 49% y/y - **Medical Imaging**: Revenue decreased by 10% y/y - **IVD**: Revenue remained stable with a 1% increase y/y - **Overseas Segments**: - **PMLS**: Increased by 8% y/y - **Medical Imaging**: Increased by 12% y/y - **IVD**: Increased by 30% y/y [2] Margins and Expenses - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: 64.9% in 9M24, compared to 64.2% in 9M23 [3] - **R&D Expenses**: Increased by 24.3% y/y in 3Q24, leading to a slight decrease in EBIT margin to 40.1% from 41.9% y/y [3] Future Outlook and Estimates - **Revenue Estimates for 2024**: Revised down by 4.5% to Rmb38.014 billion [7] - **Earnings Estimates**: Adjusted down by 7.4% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E due to weak domestic demand and slower trade-in program implementation [6][7] - **12-Month Price Target**: Lowered to Rmb400 from Rmb430, maintaining a "Buy" rating [6][9] Investment Thesis - **Market Position**: Mindray is a leading medtech device manufacturer in China, with 61% of its 2023 revenue coming from the domestic market. - **Growth Drivers**: Strong healthcare infrastructure development and domestic substitution in China, along with potential growth in overseas markets due to low market share and cost-effective products. - **Risks**: Policy risks, impact from Value-Based Procurement (VBP), and challenges in entering North American and European markets [8][9]. Key Catalysts - Recovery in procurement activities - Updates on the medical device trade-in program - Launch of new products [8] Conclusion Mindray's 3Q24 results reflect significant challenges in domestic demand, particularly in key segments. However, the company continues to show robust growth in overseas markets. The revised earnings estimates and price target indicate cautious optimism, with a focus on potential recovery catalysts in the near future.
Sany Heavy Industry (.SS)_ Cost Discipline with Signs of Improving Non-Excavator in China; Buy with Higher TP
-· 2024-11-03 17:15
A c t i o n | 31 Oct 2024 05:19:26 ET │ 14 pages Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SS) Cost Discipline with Signs of Improving Non-Excavator in China; Buy with Higher TP CITI'S TAKE Sany delivered faster than peers YoY revenue growth in 3Q24 given its lower revenue exposure to the property-dependent machines (crane and concrete) in China and accelerating overseas revenue growth. Coupled with ongoing cost reduction effort, especially on R&D expense, Sany surprised us on the upside with its 100% YoY earnings growth ...
Macro Strategy_ Is Trump priced in_ Updated views on our cross-asset election trades
-· 2024-11-03 17:15
29 Oct 2024 15:20:29 ET │ 13 pages Macro Strategy Is Trump priced in? Updated views on our cross-asset election trades | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------- ...
COINBASE
-· 2024-11-03 17:14
on your telephone keypad. Anil Gupta, Vice President, Investor Relations, you may begin your conference. Good afternoon, and welcome to the Coinbase Third Quarter 2024 earnings call. Joining me on today's call are Brian Armstrong, co-founder and CEO, Emily Choi, President and COO, Alicia Haas, CFO, and Paul Graywall, Chief Legal Officer. I hope you've all had the opportunity to read our shareholder letter, which was published on our investor relations website earlier today. Before we get started, I'd like t ...
止跌回稳如何实现? - 下一阶段房地产政策展望
-· 2024-11-03 17:14
各位投资者大家下午好那么感谢大家在工作日的下午那么接受到我们的这样的一个线上会议那么我是开源证券房地产分析师启东那么今天我们这个会议的主题是想探讨一下那么房地产后续的直接回问那么其实随着近期一系列地产政策的推出那么应该来说市场对于地产 板块包括地震产业链是高度关注的那么近期板块也在一波快速的修复之后进入了一个震荡那么我们觉得在这个时候其实政策的关键点就在于后续的推进和落实所以我们今天也是举行这样一个电话会议来明确一下我们团队近期对板块的一个观点那么首先我们可以看一下那么应该来说从9月24号以来的话 那么各个部委包括央行以及中央政治局都对地产进行了多次的发声那么很多的政策目前来看也都在一个落地的过程中我们以这里面最重要的中央政治局会议的通稿为例那么通稿中提的几条目前来看都落地了比如说我们图中标黄的加大白名单项目的贷款投放力度那么后续其实央行有表态 投到4万亿盘活存量闲置土地我们后续的住建部在他的发布会上也提了一些关于收储和后续收储的这样的一个计划回应群众关切调整住房限购政策我们可以看到在929和930 我们四个一线城市都快速的调整了它的限购、限贷等政策虽然每个城市的调整的力度有层次不齐但是实际上方向都是一致性的 ...