Action | 30 Oct 2024 00:52:42 ET │ 10 pages Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SS) Adding Downside 90-Day Catalyst Watch View original report on this Catalyst Watch | --- | --- | |------------|--------------------------------------| | | | | Direction: | Downside | | Duration: | Within 90 Days (expires 29 Jan 2025) | | Catalyst: | Earnings | We open a 90-Day downside catalyst watch on Hengli as we are concerned that the market may not be fully aware that 4Q24 could still be a weak quarter after weakerthan-expected 3Q2 ...

29 October 2024 | 10:01PM HKT 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | Global Tech Server TAM: Introducing rack-level AI server forecasts | | | Post the launch of our global server TAM estimates in Oct 2023 (report link), to better cap ...

Summary of Innovent Biologics (1801.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Innovent Biologics - **Ticker**: 1801.HK - **Industry**: Biopharmaceuticals, focusing on immuno-oncology and expanding into autoimmune, metabolic, and ophthalmology sectors Key Financial Highlights - **3Q24 Product Revenue**: Exceeded Rmb2.3 billion, representing a **40% year-over-year growth** and approximately **15% quarter-over-quarter growth** [2][3] - **Tyvyt Sales**: Recorded sales of approximately **US$150 million** (c. Rmb1,085 million), marking the first quarter with sales exceeding Rmb1 billion, with a **25% quarter-over-quarter increase** and **29% year-over-year increase** [2][3] - **New Product Launch**: Introduction of Dupert® (Fulzerasib, KRAS G12C inhibitor), expanding the product portfolio to eleven approved products [2] Growth Drivers and Future Prospects - **Upcoming Approvals**: Anticipated new product approvals include Taletrectinib/ROS1 NDA in November 2023, mazdutide NDA in February 2024, IBI-311/IGF-1R NDA in May 2024, and IBI-112/IL-23p19 NDA in September 2024, expected to drive sales growth [2] - **Market Position**: Tyvyt continues to be a major growth driver, reinforcing Innovent's market-leading position in the oncology sector [2] Strategic Transactions and Market Reactions - **Fortvita Transaction**: Innovent's stock experienced volatility, dropping **20%** in three trading days following the announcement of Lostrancos acquiring **20.39%** of Fortvita for **US$20.5 million**, implying a post-money valuation of **US$100.5 million** [3] - **Management's Positioning**: Management emphasized Fortvita as a platform for global expansion, although investor concerns were raised regarding the visibility of Fortvita's current portfolio and potential dilution of value from the global pipeline [3] Risks and Challenges - **Market Competition**: Intensifying competition in the PD-1/L1 market in China poses a significant risk [9] - **Approval Uncertainty**: Uncertain timelines for key product approvals could impact future revenue [9] - **Regulatory Risks**: Potential restrictions on off-label use due to safety issues and the risk of R&D project failures are highlighted as key concerns [9] Valuation and Investment Outlook - **Price Target**: Updated DCF-based 12-month price target is set at **HK$66.03**, reflecting an upside potential of **86%** from the current price of **HK$35.50** [11] - **Earnings Estimates**: Adjusted EPS estimates for 2024-2026 reflect improved near-term sales growth, with EPS expected to reach **Rmb1.43** by 2026 [10] Conclusion - Innovent Biologics is positioned for significant growth driven by strong product sales and a robust pipeline of upcoming approvals. However, the company faces challenges from market competition and regulatory uncertainties that could impact its performance in the near term. The current valuation suggests potential upside, making it an attractive investment opportunity despite the associated risks.

31 Oct 2024 10:14:06 ET │ 9 pages China Materials 2024 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #127 – Thermal Coal Production and Inventory CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency onground demand trends in China – market expectation on a demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Sxcoal, a consultant, on 100 sample China thermal coal mines' production and inventory data during the week of 24th to 30th Oct. We shift our near-term pecki ...

29 Oct 2024 10:48:55 ET │ 9 pages V i e w p o i n t | Global Metals & Mining Implied scrap use in steel in China decreasing in Sep'24 (-2%y/y), +1.3%y/y YTD continues to be tailwind for iron ore CITI'S TAKE One of the reasons for the strong iron ore import demand in China (+7%y/y in FY'23), despite weak steel production, had been the reduced use of scrap in steel making. Implied scrap use (crude steel-pig iron production) was only 148mn tonnes in China in FY'23; lowest level since 2016. We are assuming scra ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Materials** sector, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and funding availability in construction projects within China [1][2]. Core Insights - **Demand Recovery Expectations**: Market expectations for demand recovery in China remain cautious, leading to a revised near-term sector ranking prioritizing Gold, Cement, Coal, Copper, Aluminum, and Steel stocks [1]. - **Funding Availability Rates**: As of October 29, the funding availability rate for construction sites was **64.29%**, marking a weekly increase of **0.09 percentage points (ppt)**. This rate has risen for five consecutive weeks [2]. - **Non-Residential Projects**: The funding availability rate for non-residential construction projects was **67.31%**, up by **0.11 ppt** week-over-week (WoW). - **Residential Projects**: The rate for residential construction projects was **48.05%**, increasing by **0.13 ppt** WoW. This growth in residential funding is attributed to a recent recovery in commercial housing sales, which has improved cash flow for contractors [2]. Regional Insights - **Geographical Trends**: Improved funding for residential construction is concentrated in **East China**, while better funding conditions for infrastructure projects are observed in the **Southwest** and **East China** regions [2]. Additional Considerations - **Analyst Recommendations**: The report suggests a selective approach to investment in the materials sector, highlighting potential winners amidst diverging demand trends [1]. - **Market Sentiment**: The cautious sentiment regarding demand recovery may influence investment strategies and risk assessments in the materials sector [1]. Important Data Points - **Funding Availability Rates**: - Overall: **64.29%** - Non-Residential: **67.31%** - Residential: **48.05%** - **Weekly Changes**: - Overall: +**0.09 ppt** - Non-Residential: +**0.11 ppt** - Residential: +**0.13 ppt** [2]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and expectations within the China Materials sector.

Flash | 30 Oct 2024 10:24:48 ET │ 11 pages BOE Technology (000725.SZ) 3Q24 First Take: GM flat QoQ; NP Missed Partly on Inventory Write-off and Forex CITI'S TAKE BOE released 3Q24 results on 10 Oct. 3Q24 rev came in at Rmb50.3bn (+6% QoQ and +9% YoY), in-line with CitiE but missed BBGe by 8%. GM flattish QoQ at 16.7%, behind CitiE by 1.0pt. OP came in at Rmb2.6bn (-1% QoQ) with OPM of 5.1% (-0.4pts QoQ), missed CitiE OP by 19% and OPM by 1.2pt. Given higher-than-expected assets write-off of Rmb1.8bn and for ...

Summary of China Auto Manufacturers Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Auto Manufacturers** industry, specifically analyzing the performance of **Electric Vehicles (EVs)** and **Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)** vehicles during the week of October 21-27, 2024 [1][7]. Key Insights - **Weekly Sales Performance**: - Full EV sector sales increased by **6% week-over-week (WoW)**, slightly surpassing forecasts. Month-to-date (MTD) sales showed a **7% month-over-month (MoM)** increase, indicating strong momentum [1]. - Projected total EV sales for October are estimated at **1.175 million units**, reflecting a **6.3% MoM** increase, which is ahead of the consensus expectation of **0-4% MoM** [1]. - The overall passenger vehicle (PV) sector, including both ICE and NEV, is tracking at **2.235 million units** for October, representing a **5.8% MoM** and **18.5% year-over-year (YoY)** increase [1]. - **Sales by Vehicle Type**: - ICE vehicles showed a **10% MoM** increase. - Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) sales increased by **6% MoM**. - Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) sales rose by **12% MoM**. - Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREV) underperformed with a **-2%** change [1]. - **NEV Sales Penetration**: - NEV sales penetration for the last two weeks was **55.1%** and **55.4%**, compared to **46.2%** and **50.2%** in the first two weeks of October [1]. - **BYD Performance**: - BYD's weekly sales for the period were reported at **7% WoW** and **9% MTD MoM**, indicating solid performance within the sector [1]. Market Share Trends - **Japanese Brands**: - Notable declines in market share for major brands: - Toyota down **1.2 percentage points (ppt)** YoY to **7.0%**. - Honda down **1.8 ppt** YoY to **3.8%**. - Nissan down **0.2 ppt** YoY to **2.8%** [2]. - **German Brands**: - VW down **1.1 ppt** YoY to **9.5%**. - Audi down **0.3 ppt** YoY to **2.9%**. - Brilliance BMW down **0.7 ppt** YoY to **2.8%** [2]. - **US Brands**: - SAIC GM down **1.8 ppt** YoY to **2.5%**. - Changan Ford down **0.2 ppt** YoY to **0.5%** [2]. - **Korean Brands**: - Overall market share decline of **0.5 ppt** YoY to **1.0%** [2]. Analyst Commentary - Analysts express a cautious outlook for the upcoming months, anticipating a seasonal rally in November and December, particularly for European auto manufacturers [3]. Additional Insights - The report includes various figures and charts illustrating sales trends, market share changes, and valuation comparisons among different manufacturers [8][10][11]. - The data indicates a competitive landscape with significant shifts in market share among traditional and new entrants in the EV space [2][3]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance metrics, market share dynamics, and analyst perspectives within the China auto manufacturing sector.

Action | 31 Oct 2024 12:03:43 ET │ 10 pages Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SS) Removing Upside 30-Day Catalyst Watch View original report on this Catalyst Watch We believe the miss in 3Q24 results could lead to short-term profit-taking pressure on the stock, and thus remove the positive catalyst watch. | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|------------------------| | | | | Buy | | | Price (31 Oct 24 15:00) | Rmb7.630 | | Target price | Rmb10.960 | | Expected share price return | 43.6% | | | | ...

各位上午好,今天是10月30号,欢迎来到摩根史丹利每周三的这个周期论剑的在线直播,我是张蕾,Rachel技术传喊的分析师。今天的话呢,我们讨论三个主题,一个呢就是我们金融行业的首席居然会聊一下他们最近刚在国内调研,聊聊他们调研的收获。 然后我会聊一下最近正好我在海外露营欧洲、澳洲还有美国露营回来的一个反馈以及最近就是大家问的比较多的问题然后最后的话请我们的保险行业的分析师Rick聊一下友邦的区域扩展情况以及中国的保险业的更新 开始前我先例行读一个disclaimer请注意本次会议顶面项目更是单一的机构客户以及财务顾问本会议不对媒体开放如果您来自媒体的话请退出会议另外提示一下大家在整个会议的过程中您可以随时在屏幕上面发送您的问题不需要等到最后这样我们可以继续一点Q&A的等待时间好 我也不多说了把时间先交给Richard 好的 感谢Rachel上周我们也去浙江地区包括杭州和宁波做了非常深入的一个调研除了跟当地的银行做交流也跟多个区市的财政厅以及杭州发改委还有一些这种 包括当地的金融监管也做了比较详细的一个交流那我们这个结论呢其实还是取决于跟我们一贯的这个最近的分析差太多我们认为呢这个政策转向呢可能还是要看数字和历 ...