光伏供需改善可期，关注硅料 组件一体化 20241029 摘要 • 组件底价的划定和供给侧改革旨在通过经济手段实现寡头垄断，稳定市场 价格并提高龙头企业的市场份额。组件投标价格最低价（6 毛 8）的设定 并非强制规定，而是由龙头企业和行业协会共同倡议，旨在形成价格联盟， 控制市场价格。 • 光伏技术迭代幅度相对较小，不会出现颠覆性变化，龙头公司仍将保持市 场地位。新技术如 BC 电池和 HJT 电池尚未显示出足够的超额利润来推动 全行业转向，目前更多处于稳定并行阶段，一体化组件公司仍占据主导地 位。 • 供给侧能耗改革主要针对硅料和玻璃，通过控制能耗来调控供应，改善整 个光伏产业链的供需关系，加速改善时间节点。预计这些措施将显著加快 供需关系改善进程，提高市场效率，并进一步巩固龙头企业的市场地位。 • 硅料价格在正常市场化前提下，其现金成本线与需求交汇处的价格大约在 40 至 50 元之间。若进行供给侧改革，控制高耗能、高成本企业的产量， 将导致硅料均衡价格上升到 50 元以上。 • 预计明年二季度光伏行业的供需关系将出现边际改善，基于需求略微增长 和供给持平甚至收缩的假设。国内十四五规划收官之年，美国政策相 ...

重磅宏观事件来临！11 月投资聚焦 20241029 摘要 Q&A 10 月份大类资产的表现如何？有哪些值得关注的热点？ 10 月份的大类资产表现中，涨幅较好的包括黄金、创业板 50 和海外市场。特别 是原油板块，以布伦特原油为代表，在月初表现强劲，但在最近一个交易日出现 了明显回调，开盘下跌 4%，之后最深跌幅达到 6%。这种大幅回调主要由于供需 情况进一步恶化、地缘紧张局势降温以及 OPEC 减产逐步结束。此外，全球进入 降息周期也对需求端产生了一定影响。 • 10 月份大类资产表现中，黄金、创业板 50 和海外市场涨幅较好。原油板 块在月初表现强劲，但近期出现明显回调，主要由于供需情况恶化、地缘 紧张局势降温以及 OPEC 减产逐步结束。全球进入降息周期也对需求端产 生了一定影响。 • 黄金在 10 月份表现优异，涨幅位居大类资产首位，主要原因包括对美联 储降息周期的预期、全球央行持续购金以及地缘政治不确定性增加导致避 险需求上升。未来投资者可以等待黄金价格回调时介入。 • 创业板 50 在 10 月份表现出色，仅次于黄金，是国内以科技为代表的重要 板块之一。科创板 50 和创业板 50 都显示出强劲的 ...

AI 产业趋势下 新一轮半导体全球投资机遇 20241029 摘要 • 过去一个多月，A 股市场半导体板块经历了大幅反弹，主要原因是政策转 向引发的市场预期变化，以及部分半导体公司业绩超预期，估值迅速修复。 • 半导体行业可分为上游设备和材料、中游设计、制造和封测等环节，不同 环节的景气度和需求高度一致，但国产化率提升过程与终端需求周期存在 差异，导致不同环节业绩趋势差异，进而影响相关指数涨跌幅度。 • 中国半导体行业面临着巨大的国产替代机遇，但同时也存在技术壁垒高、 研发投入大、人才储备不足等挑战。政府、企业、高校等多方协同，共同 推进技术攻关与产业升级，实现真正意义上的自主可控。 • 自 2014 年国家大基金一期成立以来，中国半导体产业发展迅速，国产化 率不断提升，大基金二期重点攻克上游生产制造环节，大基金三期则集中 在光刻机、量测设备等高技术壁垒领域。 • 美台市场半导体企业上市公司数量多，股票投资成熟，对股价反馈领先， 因此可以作为 A 股半导体板块的领先指标，为投资者提供确定性的投资机 会窗口。 • AI 产业发展迅猛，对半导体行业产生了深远影响，推动了对先进芯片、 存储器及相关硬件需求的大幅增加 ...

各位投资者大家好我是华创测调配我们本周对于市场的观点叫此前的一个月可能发生了一些变化 重点来说的话我们对于风险偏好的看法可能会变得更加乐观这核心的原因在于剩余利用性会变得充裕当然这可能也算是过去两周市场表现给我们做的一个反思我的基本想法先说一下我觉得可能未来三到六个月我们看到的剩余利用性从低位开始向上大幅的逆转这是非常大概率的事件而股票市场很可能会成为本轮来承接剩余利用性的主战场如果我们考虑到本轮央行针对股票所创设的两个创新工具 那么在未来的六月及明年四月份我们看到新一轮的财报期之前呃货币的宽松所带来的顺利流动性充裕有可能会对风格上所形成大盘小盘强于大盘呃成长跑赢价值的可能性应该像是产生极大的影响呃虽然长期来看的话股票是一个沉重期但是短期我指的是未来的三到六个月很可能像是一个流动性盛宴之下的一个投票期 首先说一下大家比较熟知的这个社区公司的一个测算那基本上我们都是用这个整个央行所产生的货币供应量那么去观测没有被流入到实际经济所以可能会被进入市场吸收的这样一些货币规模所以在实际过程中当然一般对于这个前一端什么能表证货币供应量没有多大的一个分歧或者用M1或者用M2的这样一个同比 而对于实际经济对于这个流动性的吸纳 ...

稍等我把这个结束一下好那我现在就开始会议了好吗 本次会议紧面向招商证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户会议嘉宾发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或观点不构成投资建议未经招商证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音制作纪要转发转载传播复制编辑修改等涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 好的 各位领导 各位朋友中午时间跟大家更新汇报一下最近关注人比较多光复这一块呢上周市场在迅速的科普跟进不过从周一到周四我觉得总体上刚好没得露眼大部分人还是不太信 也不太关心可能后面是这个涨势促使大家去回去研究 我觉得大致的解论我们从最近几周沟通公开的发信息来讲我觉得总体上对政策应该适当乐观这是总体的观点从行业现状上来讲从去年四季度以来看得很细行业现状肯定是持续很久是不现实的我们大概 年报到Q1到Q2我们大致在看就是如果说是这个叫按照现在的这个价格和出货量的情况那实际上可能一半的官方公司应该在年报在这个叫明年一季报或者二季报之间可能会发不出工资了就是它的现金会面临枯竭所以这个现状肯定是不能持续的那么从8月份我们大致这个了解的和有些参与的这个一些行业的情况来看 8月份以后我们的政策主管部门已经在比较严肃的在关注这个行 ...

Industry Overview - The report discusses the transition of China's monetary policy framework from a quantity-based system (focused on money supply) to a price-based system (focused on interest rates) [1][2] - The shift began in 2018 when China stopped announcing M2 growth targets, marking the de facto abandonment of the quantity-based framework [1][3] - The new framework aims to establish an interest rate corridor mechanism and improve the transmission of monetary policy [1][13] Key Challenges in the Old Framework - The quantity-based framework faced issues with controllability and correlation between money supply and economic targets [4][5] - Financial innovation and changes in liquidity structures weakened the effectiveness of money supply as an intermediate target [5] - The divergence between M1 and M2 growth rates created challenges for policy implementation [4] New Framework and Policy Tools - The report suggests using the overnight repo rate as the intermediate target rate, given its liquidity and stability [15][20] - The interest rate corridor mechanism should be refined, with the lower bound (excess reserve rate) and upper bound (SLF rate) adjusted to reflect policy intentions [21][23] - The framework requires a combination of policy tools, including central bank lending, open market operations, and reserve requirement adjustments [24][26] Market Development and Policy Implementation - The bond repo market plays a crucial role in monetary policy transmission, with overnight repos accounting for 87.5% of total repo transactions in 2023 [20] - The report emphasizes the need to expand government bond issuance and diversify bond maturities to support open market operations [30][31] - Coordination between central bank lending and open market operations is essential for effective interest rate smoothing and yield curve management [27][29] Recommendations - Establish the overnight repo rate as the intermediate target rate [33] - Refine the interest rate corridor mechanism by adjusting the excess reserve rate and replacing the SLF rate with a more frequently used tool [33] - Normalize the reserve requirement ratio to improve interest rate transmission efficiency [33] - Enhance coordination between central bank lending and open market operations [33] - Expand government bond issuance and optimize bond maturity structures to support monetary policy operations [34]

18 36 大建运河 美国大选倒计时 一级市场期待转机 30 重塑险企账本 中国汽车出口见顶? 62 直播电商 "翻车" 之困 ୧୫ 74 程序员与 AI 亦友亦敌,从生产力工具替代出发, 互联网迎来新一轮自我革命 2024年 第42期 10月28日出版 总第1128期 郎发代号: 32-235 民币40元 港币60元 www.caixin.cc P.44 财新观察｜牢牢抓住⺠营经济促进法的要义 CAIXIN| 听⽂章 近⽇，司法部和国家发展改⾰委公布《⺠营经济促进法（草案征求意 ⻅稿）》，引发⼴泛关注。作为中国⾸部专⻔关于⺠营经济发展的基 础性法律，该法旨在优化⺠营经济发展环境，保证各类经济组织公 平参与市场竞争，促进⺠营经济健康发展和⺠营经济⼈⼠健康成 ⻓。⾃10⽉10⽇公布，截⾄10⽉14⽇，司法部就已收到1000多条意 ⻅和建议，这⼀热度反映了各界对这部重要法律的殷切期待。 9⽉26⽇召开的中共中央政治局会议，在要帮助企业渡过难关，进 ⼀步规范涉企执法、监管⾏为部分，⾸先提出的便是要出台⺠营经 济促进法，为⾮公有制经济发展营造良好环境。这反映了决策层对 这部法律的⾼度重视。草案共9章77条，内容⼗分丰 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the software and services industry in the U.S. stock market [2]. Core Insights - The U.S. software and services companies have shown significant growth in revenue, net profit, and operating cash flow in the first half of the year, with R&D expenditure growth lagging behind [2]. - Meta Platforms, Inc. has outperformed other companies in terms of financial performance [2]. Sample Overview - A total of 210 U.S. software and services companies were analyzed, all of which have been consistently reporting since 2021 [3]. - The majority of the companies are registered in the United States (166), followed by the Cayman Islands (16) and Israel (13) [4]. - 129 companies have fewer than 2,000 employees, while Meta has the highest employee count at over 340,000 [4]. Revenue Situation - The combined revenue of the 210 companies reached $260.85 billion in the first half of the year, reflecting an 11.36% year-over-year increase [7]. - Meta, IBM, and SAP led in revenue, with figures of $75.53 billion, $30.23 billion, and $17.55 billion respectively [9]. - 144 companies reported a year-over-year revenue increase, with Luminar, Tuya, and GigaMedia showing the highest growth rates of 780%, 189.65%, and 189.03% respectively [10]. Profit Situation - The total net profit for the 210 companies amounted to $37.13 billion, marking a 63.03% year-over-year increase [11]. - Meta's net profit was $25.83 billion, significantly higher than other companies [13]. - The average gross profit margin decreased to 42.34%, down 15.79 percentage points from the previous year [14]. R&D Expenditure - The total R&D expenditure for the sample companies was $45.09 billion, a 4.45% increase year-over-year, which is lower than the growth rates of revenue and net profit [14]. - Meta had the highest R&D expenditure at $20.51 billion, accounting for 45.5% of the total [15]. Cash Flow Situation - The net cash flow from operating activities for the sample companies was $75.29 billion, a 20.96% increase year-over-year [16]. - Meta contributed $38.62 billion to the total, representing 51.29% of the net cash flow [17]. - The net cash flow from investing activities was -$36.82 billion, with Meta accounting for -$17.03 billion of this total [18].

计算机、通信行业路演 20241027 摘要 • 计算机行业整体呈现积极向上的趋势，主要原因在于政策转向和产业边际 进展。尽管有反弹，但行业整体仍处于相对低位。基金公司三季报持仓显 示，计算机行业显著低配，市值上涨未能同步提升重仓配置比例，因此在 教育层面有一定安全支撑。 • 建议关注中长期产业趋势与市场行情共振的方向，包括大财政 IT、大科 技自律（信创和国产专利）以及数据要素等边际催化方向。 • 大财政 IT 方向上，10 月 12 日财政发力预期明确，在划贷和一周节调解 预期下，该方向具备较大优势并能真实落地。短期内预计相关会议将进一 步明确责任和量化细分方向，到明年或后年，中金行业许多细分方向将迎 来修复与提速预期。此外，由于财政紧张导致需求不足的问题得到解决， 应收账款高企带来的资产减值回升可能性也较大，从而带来利润弹性。 • 信创和国产专利领域前景广阔。今年 8 月政府补贴预期已缓解市场担忧， 地方政府发债及财政发力有望进一步消除资金不足问题，并推动 2025 年 至 2027 年的第四阶段全面推广。在党政与行业共振下，终端操作系统、 数据库及配套应用设备等环节替换产值有望再上台阶。短期内，如果美 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **animal cell new energy industry**, particularly the **photovoltaic (PV)** sector, which is experiencing significant market movements due to unprecedented supply-side reforms [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply-Side Reforms**: The reforms have exceeded expectations, leading to a **15% increase** in overall capacity utilization across the industry, with leading companies seeing a **20% growth** in market share [1][2]. - **Resource Optimization**: The reforms have optimized resource allocation, enhancing production efficiency and accelerating the development and launch of new products [1][3]. - **Technological Innovation**: Leading companies are actively engaging in R&D, launching efficient and environmentally friendly products to meet market demand [1][3]. - **Policy Support**: Government measures, including financial subsidies and tax incentives, are alleviating financial pressures on companies and guiding the industry towards sustainable development through strict environmental standards [1][4]. - **Future Outlook**: With ongoing policy support, more capital is expected to flow into the sector, driving technological innovation and industrial upgrades. Increased international market demand is anticipated to boost exports from China, a major production base [1][5]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Adjustment**: The new energy sector is currently at the bottom of an adjustment cycle, having undergone two to three years of corrections. The supply-demand relationship is expected to improve gradually in 2024, with the lithium battery market recovering sooner than the PV market [1][6]. - **PV Industry Changes**: Recent significant changes in the PV sector include the introduction of a minimum cost price by the China Photovoltaic Association, which aims to stabilize market prices and enhance the concentration of leading companies [1][7]. - **Price Trends**: The PV industry is currently facing historical low prices and profitability, with most companies operating at a loss. Future price recovery is contingent on supply-demand dynamics and the gradual elimination of excess capacity [1][20]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The call suggests focusing on companies with rigid capacity in the silicon material and glass sectors, as well as leading firms with channel and cost advantages [1][37]. Conclusion - The animal cell new energy industry, particularly the photovoltaic sector, is poised for a turnaround due to supply-side reforms and supportive policies. The focus on technological innovation and resource optimization will be crucial for companies to enhance their competitive edge in the evolving market landscape.