February 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Positions of Active Long-only Managers in China/HK Chinese equities continued to show outflow from foreign funds in January 2025, though at a slower pace vs. December 2024. Passive funds had US$0.7bn outflows and active funds had US $1.7bn outflows. EM LOs added underweights in China to 2.9ppt. Foreign domiciled funds flow: Chinese domestic funds flow: Short interest ( Exhibit 14 , Exhibit 15 ): M Update Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Chloe Li ...

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Credit Research 05 February 2025 What we learned from meetings with 30 EM corporate investors Cautiously constructive; OW HY but shying away from riskier names; A 'carry-year' ahead We met/spoke with ~30 EM corporate credit investors (mostly real money, some fast, mostly dedicated, some cross-over / opportunistic) in London and US over the past 2 weeks with respect to CEEMEA credits. Key takeaways Investors remain generally constructive and engaged, but more defensively positioned Spr ...

February 5, 2025 07:50 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Japan Energy & Utilities: Industry View In-Line Focus in 2025: 1) earnings outlook, 2) changes in management stances, 3) the Japanese government's Seventh Basic Energy Plan and the new GHG emissions target. Key Takeaways Related report: Japan Energy & Utilities Industry: P/B Enhancement Plans (Jan 2025) (9 Jan 2025) Next (7th) Strategic Energy Plan Draft Calls for Making Most of Renewables and Nuclear Power (18 Dec 2024) Japan's Nuclear Reboot (11 Oct 20 ...

Technology - Semiconductors Jay Kwon AC J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 06 February 2025 Memory Market Update Quantifying DeepSeek's impact to the Memory Market; Focus on AI ecosystem and edge-AI upside DeepSeek's R1 model release has spurred investor concerns on a faster decline in the training cost curve leading to datacenter AI hardware demand. The memory sector's18-month growth cycle was largely pinned by rising compute demand (HBM) for high-end training GPU - the sector's average share pri ...

February 5, 2025 06:22 AM GMT Multipolar World Tariffs and Trade Protectionism: Our 'One-Stop-Shop' Playbook Given the developing news flow around tariffs, we have created a consolidated, global playbook for investors that provides analyses, and stock assessments across sectors. Key Takeaways Over the weekend, President Trump and his administration imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China (see fact sheet here). President Trump stated that until the crisis/extraordinary threat is alleviated, ...

5 February 2025 U.S. Autos & Auto Parts US Autos: Tariffs are terrible - Did the market get it right? Daniel Roeska +1 917 344 8577 daniel.roeska@bernsteinsg.com Christopher Gray +1 917 344 8308 christopher.gray@bernsteinsg.com Joseph Han +1 917 344 8571 joseph.han@bernsteinsg.com On Monday, auto stocks reacted to the news President Trump was adding 25% tariffs to Mexico and Canada and traded down by up to 8%. Later on Monday, President Trump announced a 30-day delay of the tariffs until March 4th, and on T ...

Action | 05 Feb 2025 08:00:00 ET │ 13 pages NVIDIA Corp (NVDA.O) Preview – Investor Focus Shifts to Earnings & GTC in March CITI'S TAKE NVDA reports Jan-Q after the market close on 2/26. We model in-line Jan/Apr-Q and believe expectations are for ~$38B/$42.5B sales for the Jan/Apr-Qs given supply chain indications for the Blackwell to ramp more meaningfully mid this year with some mix shift between GB200/300. We believe NVDA stock is approaching valuation support levels trading at mid 20's P/E & 25% discoun ...

5 February 2025 Equity Research Report China software Equities DeepSeek-R1 marks further AI monetization China DeepSeek-R1 – strong performance at low cost: DeepSeek-R1 is a reasoning model developed by DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup. As a reasoning model (vs general model), it first generates a Chain of Thought to enhance the accuracy of responses before delivering the final answer. This open-source model has shown robust performance (rivaling OpenAI's o1 in mainstream benchmarks) at a much lower cost in m ...

February 5, 2025 06:47 AM GMT China Tourism Group Duty Free | Asia Pacific Hainan DF Sales During CNY Holiday - Lukewarm Yet Sequentially Stable Offline Hainan duty free (DF) market: Per Haikou Customs (CCTV news, offline sales only), average daily DF sales during the CNY holiday (Jan 28-Feb 4) were at Rmb262mn/day, -16%, vs. 2024 CNY. The YoY decline widened from -5% in Dec-24 due to a high base, but it was visibly narrower vs -30% to -40% during March-Nov 2024. A sequentially stable CNY trajectory, in our ...

高盛中国策略电话会：关税展望、AI 掘金机会、地产筑底、 两会政策风向标！ 摘要 • 美国对中国加征 10%关税预计将拖累中国 2025 年经济增长约 0.5 个百分 点，虽低于此前预期，但仍构成负面影响，不确定性是关键因素。 • 中国采取反制措施，包括对部分商品征收 10%-15%的报复性关税，总额 约 140 亿美元，并实施稀有材料出口管制，将部分美企列入不可靠实体清 单。 • 2025 年 1 月官方制造业 PMI 降至 49.1，非制造业 PMI 环比下降两个百分 点，受春节提前和冬季天气影响，经济活动放缓。 • 2024 年"以旧换新"政策通过 1,500 亿特别国债带动汽车、家电零售额 显著上升，拉动 10 月社零总额增长 1.2 个百分点，全年带动相关产品销 售超 1.3 万亿元。 • 预计 2025 年"以旧换新"政策将扩大补贴范围至手机、电脑等，特别国 债规模增至 5,000-6,000 亿，有望拉动社零增速 1.2 个百分点，名义 GDP 增速 0.4 个百分点。 • 央行稳定人民币中间价在 7.17 左右，短期内重视汇率稳定，但预计未来 3-6 个月人民币兑美元汇率可能走弱至 7.4-7 ...