更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Markets Strategy 03 February 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Equity Strategy (852) 2800-1087 wendy.m.liu@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong ...

这个Cybernet 包括你家光棚号公司的财报当中我们也看到关于DCI级别的东西越来越多那么其实作为基础设施中非常重要的一部分那么在北美市场上不管从光的角度来看还是从能源的角度来看整个DCI的这个大趋势已经逐步成形了已经逐步成形了所以呢这个领域里面还是会有更强的这个Beta还是会有更强的这个Beta 那么所以这两个是就是我们看到的一些一些变化当然今年呃年中的动头戏还是要开1.6T那么这个我觉得十点应该在一季度末二季度的时候会看到这些新品不开始有有有放量开始有放量那么除此以外呢呃还是会聚焦在我们的这个能源的这个赛道上 客户或受邀客户会议中嘉宾的发言内容仅代表其个人观点国胜证券研究人员的发言内容仅代表当地的判断具体请参见完整版的研究报告未经国胜证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音转发及相关解读事前违反上述情形的我们将保留追究相关方法律责任的权利 好的各位投资朋友大家好欢迎参加国事通讯的周例会那么本周的我们的主题叫算力依旧开发开发起点要创新之旅因为在过去的几周一日其实整个板块已经有一个大的波动从开业第一天大家觉得有了这个deepfake以后整个算力受到了很大的冲击加上节假日期间英伟达波动也比较大 那么这个带来了一 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **technology industry**, specifically focusing on **Apple Inc.** and its innovations in **AI**, **AR**, and **hardware components**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Automation and Human-Computer Interaction**: The enhancement of automation capabilities significantly improves human-computer interaction experiences, with a focus on the differentiation between various downstream applications like mobile and PC, which are considered mature categories. The emphasis is on the industry's progress and valuation over the next two to three years, particularly regarding profit release elasticity and certainty [1][2][3]. 2. **AI and Hardware Innovations**: Apple is seen as a cautious leader in AI, with a focus on its proprietary architecture for AI applications. The company is expected to leverage its M-series chips for both device and cloud-based AI models, enhancing user privacy and security [5][6][8]. 3. **Market Trends and Product Launches**: The upcoming launches of new iPhone models, including the SE with a full-screen design and self-developed baseband chips, are anticipated to drive sales. The iPhone 17 is expected to start production in June, with significant updates planned for iOS 19 [6][7][9]. 4. **Innovation Cycle**: Apple is entering a three-year innovation cycle, which is expected to be the most intense in its history. This cycle is driven by the integration of AI into existing technologies, leading to increased hardware prices and a potential boost in sales [8][12]. 5. **AI Glasses and Market Competition**: The market for AI glasses is projected to grow significantly, with major players like Samsung and Xiaomi expected to release competitive products. The overall shipment of AI glasses is forecasted to reach close to 5 million units by 2025, with a tenfold increase anticipated by 2028 [12][14]. 6. **Component Demand and Supply Chain**: The demand for components such as DRAM is expected to rise due to the high resource consumption of large AI models. The need for increased battery capacity and the introduction of new suppliers are also highlighted as critical factors for growth in the consumer electronics sector [19][20]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Consumer Feedback and Sales Projections**: The actual impact of AI on sales growth remains uncertain, with a strong emphasis on consumer feedback being crucial for accurate sales forecasts [9]. 2. **Regulatory and Tariff Concerns**: Previous concerns regarding tariffs and their impact on product pricing have been addressed, with Apple successfully applying for exemptions in the past. This suggests a potential for stability in pricing despite regulatory challenges [17][18]. 3. **Emerging Technologies and Innovations**: The discussion includes the potential for new technologies such as foldable screens and AR glasses, indicating ongoing innovation beyond current product lines [10][11]. 4. **Brand Competition**: The competitive landscape among brands like Xiaomi, Samsung, and Lenovo is noted, with a focus on how these companies can leverage AI to enhance user engagement and market share [20].

Atoms & Photons February 7, 2025 04:26 PM GMT Tesla Inc | North America As GenAI moves deeper into the knowledge economy (bits & bytes) investors should prepare for the eventual move into the physical economy (atoms & photons). It's already begun, and the TAM could eventually exceed global GDP. 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 Our recently published Humanoid 100 list and continuin ...

1、临床 CRO 行业经历周期性调整，市场竞争格局发生变化 •2018 年至 2022 年间，临床试验服务行业处于顶峰期，与一级市场生物医药投资繁荣期同 步，但自 2022 年起，随着市场泡沫破裂，估值开始回调。 •当前临床 CRO 行业竞争格局正在变化，不同类型客户对服务质量要求不断提升，促使行业 内企业优化服务能力以适应市场需求。 •头部企业如泰格、诺斯格、海丁格及克林利康等市场份额均有所增加，主要通过承接退出 市场中小企业的订单实现扩张。 信达医药 | 临床 CRO 行业发展趋势研讨 20250209 2、服务价格持续下降，企业面临盈利压力 •2022 年至 2025 年初，临床服务运营价格平均下降两到三成，2023 年中市场均价为 9 折， 2023 年底降至 8 折，2024 年初进一步降至 7-7.5 折，2024 年底稳定于 7.2-7.4 折之间。 •自 2022 年以来，行业平均价格下降了 20%-30%，某些极端案例中价格降幅高达 40%-50%， 给公司盈利能力带来巨大压力。 •尽管通过降价策略增加了订单数量和服务费收入，但由于单价下降，整体收入并未显著增 长，订单交付周期延长，部分订单 ...

财新观察｜AI竞争以开源促开放 CAIXIN| 听⽂章 中国⼈⼯智能（AI）企业深度求索（DeepSeek）发布的开源⼤模型 DeepSeek-R1持续引发海内外热议。据DeepSeek称，该模型榜单测 试成绩与美国⾏业巨头OpenAI于2024年12⽉正式上线的o1模型相 似，在某些⽅⾯甚⾄表现更好，但是，其推理定价仅约为后者的五⼗ 分 之 ⼀ ⾄ ⼆ ⼗ 五 分 之 ⼀ 。 此 前 ， DeepSeek 发 布 的 开 源 ⼤ 模 型 DeepSeek-V3已凭借极低的⼤模型训练价格受到国内外AI产业界热 议。对⼀家名不⻅经传的中国AI企业来说，取得这样的成绩是了不起 的。国外同⾏对DeepSeek异军突起也不吝赞美之词。在刚刚过去的 春节假期⾥，DeepSeek爆⽕出圈，不少国⼈感到欢欣⿎舞。 值得注意的是，从DeepSeek的优异表现中可以看到，在AI⼤模型开 闭源之争中，开源模型正在赶超闭源模型。图灵奖得主、主导Meta AI 研 究 的 ⾸ 席 科 学 家 杨 ⽴ 昆 （ Yann LeCun ） 对 此 解 读 称 ： DeepSeek 得 益 于 开 源 研 究 和 开 源 项 ⽬ （ 例 如 ...

洪灏-剖析中国股市反弹的三大驱动力 20250209 摘要 Q&A 目前中国市场的表现如何？有哪些因素影响了市场行情？ 春节期间的市场表现较为积极，自 1 月下旬开始上涨。我们认为至少有三个因 素推动了这一趋势。首先，关税的发展符合或好于预期。其次，DC 的成功带动 了整体中国市场投资气氛有所改善。第三，市场对 3 月会议政策的预期升温。 特朗普政府对关税政策的态度如何？这对中国市场有何影响？ 特朗普政府在关税问题上的立场反复无常。例如，他在上任初期并未提及关税， 但随后暗示可能对中国、加拿大和莫斯科征收关税，并最终宣布对中国征收 10%的关税，对加拿大和莫斯科征收 25%的关税。然而，他又表示可以暂缓一个 月执行加拿大和莫斯科的关税。这种反复使得投资者难以预测并跟随消息进行 交易，中国股票市场对此类坏消息虽有反应，但通常只持续一天。 • 特朗普政府对关税政策的态度反复，初期未提及，后宣布对中国商品征收 关税，虽有暂缓，但增加了市场的不确定性，中国股市对此类消息的反应 通常较为短暂。 • 当前中美贸易谈判前景较 2018 年乐观，双方达成第二阶段贸易协定的概率 较大，主要因为中方在技术上有所突破，且特朗普政府 ...

中国人工智能（AI）企业深度求索（DeepSeek）发布的开源大模型DeepSeek- R1持续引发海内外热议。据DeepSeek称，该模型榜单测试成绩与美国行业巨头 OpenAI于2024年12月正式上线的o1模型相似，在某些方面甚至表现更好，但是， 其推理定价仅约为后者的五十分之一至二十五分之一。此前，DeepSeek发布的开源 大模型DeepSeek-V3已凭借极低的大模型训练价格受到国内外AI产业界热议。对一 家名不见经传的中国AI企业来说，取得这样的成绩是了不起的。国外同行对 DeepSeek异军突起也不吝赞美之词。在刚刚过去的春节假期里，DeepSeek爆 火"出圈"，不少国人感到欢欣鼓舞。 值得注意的是，从DeepSeek的优异表现中可以看到，在AI大模型开闭源之争 中，开源模型正在赶超闭源模型。图灵奖得主、主导Meta AI研究的首席科学家杨立 2 1 财新观察｜AI竞争以开源促开放 CAIXIN| 听文章 0:00 / 5:36 昆（Yann LeCun）对此解读称："DeepSeek得益于开源研究和开源项目（例如 PyTorch和Llama）。他们在他人工作的基础上提出了新想法并进行了构建 ...

Summary of Weichai Power Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Weichai Power - **Industry**: Heavy-Duty Truck (HDT) and Engine Manufacturing Key Points and Arguments Stock Performance - Weichai's stock has shown a positive shift in 2025, with H-shares up 8% and A-shares up 2% year-to-date, reversing the negative trend of 2024 where H-shares fell by 9% and A-shares remained flat [2][4] Heavy-Duty Truck (HDT) Market Outlook - The outlook for HDT demand is optimistic, driven by China's trade-in initiatives, despite a 28% year-over-year decline in January 2025 HDT sales to 70,000 units due to early Lunar New Year effects [2][8] - Anticipation of improved sales in February 2025 is supported by a stable outlook for the year, aided by the newly announced China IV trade-in policy aimed at reducing emissions [2][4] Large-Bore Engine Expansion - Weichai is strategically expanding in large-bore engines, which is expected to enhance its presence in the data center sector, addressing the growing power demand [3][9] - The company sold 6,000 units of large-bore engines in the first nine months of 2024, with a 15% increase in average selling price, although volume growth fell short of the annual target [9] KION's Performance - Weichai's German subsidiary, KION, reported strong 4Q24 results, with a 15% increase in share price over the past month, driven by robust performance and new initiatives with Nvidia [4][8] - KION's restructuring plan aims for cost savings of €140-160 million by 2026, which is expected to positively impact Weichai [4][8] Valuation and Investment Thesis - Weichai is rated Overweight with a price target of HK$19.00 for H-shares and Rmb21.00 for A-shares, based on discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation [6][15] - The company has a dividend yield of approximately 6%, supported by ongoing initiatives to enhance shareholder returns [4][15] Risks to Outlook - Key risks include a slower-than-expected recovery in HDT sales, weaker market-share gains, and underperformance of KION [14][16] LNG Truck Market - LNG truck sales in January 2025 saw only a 4% year-over-year decrease, indicating a positive trend with a domestic penetration rate rising to 22% from 19% a year ago [8] Additional Important Insights - The early timing of the Lunar New Year has distorted sales data, and the decline in January HDT sales is not considered meaningful in isolation [8] - Weichai's strategic initiatives across hydrogen fuel cells, hydraulic components, and excavator engines are gaining traction, indicating a diversified growth strategy [13][15] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Weichai Power conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market outlook, strategic initiatives, and associated risks.

February 5, 2025 03:36 PM GMT China Transportation | Asia Pacific Infrastructure Asia Pacific Industry View In-Line Measuring Risks from China – US Cross-Border E-commerce Growth Dynamics Key Takeaways What's new: The market is discussing potential downside risks to China-US cross- border e-commerce following the higher taxes on small parcels shipped from China to the US. Bear case – What if cross-border e-commerce demand is back to pre-Covid level? A down-cycle for air freight rates? We are unsure: Long ha ...