February 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Positions of Active Long-only Managers in China/HK Chinese equities continued to show outflow from foreign funds in January 2025, though at a slower pace vs. December 2024. Passive funds had US$0.7bn outflows and active funds had US $1.7bn outflows. EM LOs added underweights in China to 2.9ppt. Foreign domiciled funds flow: Chinese domestic funds flow: Short interest ( Exhibit 14 , Exhibit 15 ): M Update Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Chloe Li ...

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Credit Research 05 February 2025 What we learned from meetings with 30 EM corporate investors Cautiously constructive; OW HY but shying away from riskier names; A 'carry-year' ahead We met/spoke with ~30 EM corporate credit investors (mostly real money, some fast, mostly dedicated, some cross-over / opportunistic) in London and US over the past 2 weeks with respect to CEEMEA credits. Key takeaways Investors remain generally constructive and engaged, but more defensively positioned Spr ...

February 5, 2025 07:50 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Japan Energy & Utilities: Industry View In-Line Focus in 2025: 1) earnings outlook, 2) changes in management stances, 3) the Japanese government's Seventh Basic Energy Plan and the new GHG emissions target. Key Takeaways Related report: Japan Energy & Utilities Industry: P/B Enhancement Plans (Jan 2025) (9 Jan 2025) Next (7th) Strategic Energy Plan Draft Calls for Making Most of Renewables and Nuclear Power (18 Dec 2024) Japan's Nuclear Reboot (11 Oct 20 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Memory Market**, particularly the impact of **DeepSeek's R1 model** on the demand for AI hardware in data centers and the overall memory sector dynamics [2][51]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Dynamics**: - The memory sector has experienced an **11% decline** in average share prices over the last two weeks, compared to a **9% decline** in the SOX index [2]. - Concerns about a slowdown in GPU demand are prevalent, but the report emphasizes the growth potential from **edge-AI migration** and the **AI ASIC market** [2]. 2. **Demand Projections**: - The report anticipates a **25% to 40% adoption rate** for edge AI in PCs and smartphones by 2026, with a potential **220%+ upside** in edge-AI bit demand, translating to a **20% increase** in global DRAM Total Addressable Market (TAM) [2][10]. - The inference demand for HBM is expected to be limited, with more upside potential for conventional DRAM due to the low attach rate of HBM for inference ASIC chips [2]. 3. **Supply and Demand Analysis**: - A **10% decline** in HBM demand could lead to a **2.5% surplus** in ex-HBM bit supply, indicating that the HBM market remains tight despite concerns of oversupply [9][18]. - The report suggests that **20% weaker demand** could result in a significant oversupply scenario, necessitating a reallocation of HBM wafer inputs [18]. 4. **CSP Capex Outlook**: - Major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) like Microsoft and Alphabet reported strong growth in their datacenter divisions, with capex guidance raised to **US$80 billion** and **US$75 billion** respectively for FY25 [51]. - Despite concerns about AI infrastructure spending, CSPs are expected to continue investing heavily in data clusters [51]. 5. **Competitive Landscape**: - The competition among memory makers is intensifying with the introduction of **GDDR7** and **LPDDR6**, which promise higher speeds and improved efficiency [25]. - Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are all expected to begin mass production of GDDR7 memory modules in **1Q25**, highlighting the competitive nature of the market [25]. 6. **Investment Recommendations**: - The report recommends investors to focus on the **NVDA-centric supply chain** and highlights **SK Hynix** as a preferred pick in the Asian memory space [2]. - Investors are advised to consider edge AI proxies and key players in the Apple supply chain for potential growth opportunities [55]. Other Important Insights - The report notes that **ASICs** are expected to become a larger driver of HBM demand in the long term, although short-term visibility remains stronger for merchant GPUs [36]. - The memory sector's performance has been lackluster, with an average decline of **10%** over the past three months, attributed to macro risks and the impact of DeepSeek [51]. - The report anticipates volatility in memory stock prices in the near term as investors adjust their earnings growth expectations [55]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the memory market and its dynamics, particularly in relation to AI and edge computing trends.

February 5, 2025 06:22 AM GMT Multipolar World Tariffs and Trade Protectionism: Our 'One-Stop-Shop' Playbook Given the developing news flow around tariffs, we have created a consolidated, global playbook for investors that provides analyses, and stock assessments across sectors. Key Takeaways Over the weekend, President Trump and his administration imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China (see fact sheet here). President Trump stated that until the crisis/extraordinary threat is alleviated, ...

5 February 2025 U.S. Autos & Auto Parts US Autos: Tariffs are terrible - Did the market get it right? Daniel Roeska +1 917 344 8577 daniel.roeska@bernsteinsg.com Christopher Gray +1 917 344 8308 christopher.gray@bernsteinsg.com Joseph Han +1 917 344 8571 joseph.han@bernsteinsg.com On Monday, auto stocks reacted to the news President Trump was adding 25% tariffs to Mexico and Canada and traded down by up to 8%. Later on Monday, President Trump announced a 30-day delay of the tariffs until March 4th, and on T ...

Action | 05 Feb 2025 08:00:00 ET │ 13 pages NVIDIA Corp (NVDA.O) Preview – Investor Focus Shifts to Earnings & GTC in March CITI'S TAKE NVDA reports Jan-Q after the market close on 2/26. We model in-line Jan/Apr-Q and believe expectations are for ~$38B/$42.5B sales for the Jan/Apr-Qs given supply chain indications for the Blackwell to ramp more meaningfully mid this year with some mix shift between GB200/300. We believe NVDA stock is approaching valuation support levels trading at mid 20's P/E & 25% discoun ...

Summary of Key Points from the Equity Research Report Industry and Company Overview - **Industry**: AI and Software - **Company**: DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup known for its reasoning model DeepSeek-R1, which competes with OpenAI's models Core Insights and Arguments 1. **DeepSeek-R1 Performance**: DeepSeek-R1 is a reasoning model that generates a Chain of Thought (CoT) to enhance response accuracy, showing robust performance at a significantly lower cost compared to OpenAI's o1 model, with API output costs being 96% cheaper [3][4][22] 2. **AI Application Monetization**: The introduction of DeepSeek-R1 is expected to accelerate AI application monetization, particularly in logical reasoning, which has been a limitation for previous domestic models. This model's low token costs will reduce AI training and inference costs, enhancing R&D efficiency for software companies [4][24][28] 3. **Focus on AI Agents**: The monetization of AI agents is gaining traction, with several US companies leading the way. Chinese software companies are also launching localized AI agents, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenues in the second half of 2025 [5][29] 4. **Investment Recommendation**: A "Buy" rating is maintained for Sangfor Technologies, which is well-positioned to benefit from the growing AI application market due to its hyper-converged infrastructure business [6][36] Additional Important Insights 1. **DeepSeek's Engineering Innovations**: The model utilizes pure reinforcement learning and incorporates cold-start data, which enhances its reasoning capabilities and reduces training costs to approximately USD 6 million compared to OpenAI's USD 500 million [12][22][21] 2. **Developer Adoption**: Since its release, DeepSeek-R1 has gained significant traction among developers, surpassing Llama 3 in GitHub stars, indicating a growing interest and adoption in the developer community [27] 3. **Market Positioning**: DeepSeek's model addresses critical industry pain points, such as high costs and insufficient reasoning capabilities in existing models, making it more accessible for developers and enhancing the potential for diverse AI applications [24][25][28] 4. **AI Agents in China**: Various Chinese companies, including Kingsoft Office and DBAPP, are integrating DeepSeek's models into their AI products, indicating a trend towards the adoption of advanced AI solutions in the domestic market [31][34] Conclusion The report highlights the significant advancements made by DeepSeek in the AI sector, particularly with the launch of DeepSeek-R1, which is set to transform AI application monetization and enhance the capabilities of software companies in China. The ongoing development and adoption of AI agents further emphasize the potential for growth in this industry.

February 5, 2025 06:47 AM GMT China Tourism Group Duty Free | Asia Pacific Hainan DF Sales During CNY Holiday - Lukewarm Yet Sequentially Stable Offline Hainan duty free (DF) market: Per Haikou Customs (CCTV news, offline sales only), average daily DF sales during the CNY holiday (Jan 28-Feb 4) were at Rmb262mn/day, -16%, vs. 2024 CNY. The YoY decline widened from -5% in Dec-24 due to a high base, but it was visibly narrower vs -30% to -40% during March-Nov 2024. A sequentially stable CNY trajectory, in our ...

高盛中国策略电话会：关税展望、AI 掘金机会、地产筑底、 两会政策风向标！ 摘要 • 美国对中国加征 10%关税预计将拖累中国 2025 年经济增长约 0.5 个百分 点，虽低于此前预期，但仍构成负面影响，不确定性是关键因素。 • 中国采取反制措施，包括对部分商品征收 10%-15%的报复性关税，总额 约 140 亿美元，并实施稀有材料出口管制，将部分美企列入不可靠实体清 单。 • 2025 年 1 月官方制造业 PMI 降至 49.1，非制造业 PMI 环比下降两个百分 点，受春节提前和冬季天气影响，经济活动放缓。 • 2024 年"以旧换新"政策通过 1,500 亿特别国债带动汽车、家电零售额 显著上升，拉动 10 月社零总额增长 1.2 个百分点，全年带动相关产品销 售超 1.3 万亿元。 • 预计 2025 年"以旧换新"政策将扩大补贴范围至手机、电脑等，特别国 债规模增至 5,000-6,000 亿，有望拉动社零增速 1.2 个百分点，名义 GDP 增速 0.4 个百分点。 • 央行稳定人民币中间价在 7.17 左右，短期内重视汇率稳定，但预计未来 3-6 个月人民币兑美元汇率可能走弱至 7.4-7 ...